Morning Ideas February 18, 2020Here we are again with the buyers having a chance to fight back at an important line in the sand.
I would expect them to hold today, and if we are going to see selling, it will be tomorrow.
Tradecontext
Morning Ideas February 17, 2021Big options expiration on the schedule on Friday morning tells me that I think it's too early to expect meaningful selling.
I would expect that the market bounce from this congestion area where we are currently and trade in a tight range.
I would still be cautious being on the short side, and if you are, make sure you are trading "light and tight"
Morning Ideas February 15, 2021Holiday today in the US. These days are VERY slow usually. In my opinion, it's not worth it to trade them.
If you are going to trade today, the market closes at 12 central, so be sure you are aware of that.
Going long againBuy at 3895 Low side of value.
Take profit at 3912 High side of value.
Stop loss at 3883 below recent lows.
Morning Ideas February 11, 2021Classic example of a shakeout yesterday. We talked in class about wanting to be long just to see the market dip down real quick and grab some stops.
I am going to be right back on the long train today, as I expect us to continue to squeeze higher. I don't see much downside potential here other than the 3900 magnet from the SPX options.
Morning Ideas February 10, 2021 Morning traders!
As I said in todays video, make sure you are not 'inventing' new plans just because the market is slow.
The market has been trading beautifully, even though it continues to trade at all time highs.
See you guys in class.
Morning Ideas February 9, 2021Same story here guys, I'd stay long and strong, you've got a better chance than trying to short into this rally.
Morning Ideas February 8, 2021Market is trading higher and looking fine up here.
I always look for acceptance of price, and the market is definitely NOT rejecting up here.
I would expect outside-in type of a range day today, in the direction of the trend (Up).
Morning Ideas February 4, 2021Market holding near the highs and trading a ton up here.
I would expect to see the market breakthrough towards 3855.
Morning Ideas January 29, 2020Buckle up, should be another awesome day.
Keep an eye on the news about Gamestop. I think it will weigh the markets down.
Another thing to watch today is VIX. It will likely be our guiding light today as the hedge activity in options will start to go nuts should we start moving lower. If we move lower and VIX doesn't budge, I would be skeptical of the move.
Morning Ideas January 27, 2021Very important day for the markets guys and gals!
I would keep a CLOSE eye on what happens after the FOMC meeting minutes that come out at 2pm eastern time today.
80 needs to hold IMO, but I still see this as a positive market until we can break that level and hold below it.
I would expect to see sideways chop in the morning, heading into the announcement.
I look forward to class today.
Morning Ideas January 25, 2021Trading near the highs again, and starting to accept up here.
FOMC on Wednesday I think will mute the trade a little bit, but I'd be careful with a dip below 3775.
Morning Ideas January 21, 2020Yesterday was pretty much par for the course, the runaway train.
VIX coming off a bit, which probably means that the market is breathing a sigh of relief that the inauguration went off pretty smooth.
I'd be looking for a pullback to value high of the previous area at this point.
Morning ideas January 19, 2021No video today, some problems with my audio.
Market struggling right where we expect it to, right at 90 area.
If the market gets back into value here I would expect a run towards 10 again.
If we fail here, look for the market to try and test the lows from Friday last week.
Morning Ideas January 15, 2021No comments today, likely to be a volatile day and since we are opening in 4 minutes, I'll get this to you right away.
Morning Ideas January 14, 2021Market is moving higher towards value high. I'm watching up here to see if we can accept above this 3810 area, however, i do not expect this to happen today.
Today we see low volume in the overnight session, which tends to favor more mean reversion type of day.
I would look for the market to unpin from this area tomorrow, not today.
Morning Ideas January 13, 2021The market came down and tested our previous value high and bounced right off.
We are trading A TON in the 3795 area and I would expect that to continue to be a magnet.
However, if we break one way or another, I would expect it to be higher if it happens before Friday.
Friday is options expiration and I would expect a pretty large move out of here.
Morning Ideas January 12, 2021Same old buyers came back in yesterday, but we didn't push up very far.
We are pinned right below the 3800 level in the ES which is roughly 3794 in the SPX.
With options expiring this week, I would expect to see us pinned up here, or move a little higher.
If you're looking for a down move, it's probably best to wait for next week.
Morning Ideas January 11, 2021Another action packed week shaping up.
Big options expiry this week, which you need to be aware of in this market.
We are constantly forced to evolve with the market or risk being left behind, so it's becoming increasingly important to understand where the options traders are located.
The reason is that we have historically high levels of options volume from traders looking to get rich quick. It's been a trade that has worked well for the Robinhooder's, so I will continue to talk about where those traders are located and where I think they are in trouble.
More times than not, they are in trouble at the exact same places where the value lows are, so we have confluence in these areas.
Morning Ideas January 8 , 2020A couple of nuances in today's video. Most of those nuances indicating that the likeliest scenario is a back and forth, outside-in type day.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Morning Ideas January 7, 2021Markets had trouble rolling over yesterday, which is hard to imagine with the Capitol building being stormed.
Like it or not, there is an invisible hand pushing the market higher, and it's not wise to fight it.
