Bitcoin - The grand scheme of thingsAlts are tied to BTC and for now BTC will follow the Dow, why? Because the DJI is a direct reflection of the health of the economy. In a bad economy we can see that institutional money pulls out of crypto as well. If things continue to be this bad we will see the capitulation of some lesser-known Altcoins. Let me give you some perspective as to what has happened over the last few weeks so you can appreciate the magnitude of this event. Let's look at the Dow and how some major events have influenced the health of the economy. Also, remember that in the end, we will bounce back from this, maybe faster than any other time before.
Let's look at these key events; The market crash of 87, September 11, 2001, and the housing market crash. As you can see so far this event is as big as the 1987 crash but with the main difference, that this event is not even close to over yet.
On BTC we'll look at how COVID-19 influenced crypto while China was fighting the spread vs once the virus made it to the U.S.
What does this chart tell us? A lot, you can see that the bulk of the money is in the United States and it comes from major institutions. How does this info help? Easy, bad news out of the U.S. will influence negatively so be ready, bad or good news out of China does influence but not as much. When the U.S. recovers the crypto market will bounce hard.
WHAT'S BTC DOING NOW?
BTC truly had to jump over the 200MA in the weekly chart in a hurry to stop a meltdown. We went below this benchmark and closed under it once last week. The 200MA is a very crucial line and currently we are playing with fire and this asset class knows it, it is obvious that the powers that be pushed the price up in a hurry to close above the 200MA (that's how important this is) We are currently above the thin red line which was our next obstacle, we'll keep moving up but it is hard to see us going further than the thick red line.
WHERE IS THE DOW HEADED?
It seems like we still have some more events to go through. We have yet to find out how bad the coronavirus has influenced the U.S. We are expecting the job reports, Also the end of Q1 and Q2 (quarterly reports.) It is expected that most companies will post massive losses. All of this will send the Dow lower in the next few weeks which will influence the direction BTC will take.
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Tradefecto
Bitcoin - In the thick of it nowLooking at the daily chart you can see how price has melted over the last couple of weeks. On the daily chart, we are very close to having a death cross. So far within a period of 2 months, we've had a golden and death cross which is not common. This mostly tells you that BTC was on an upswing which forces a golden cross until an external event influenced its trajectory and drastically forced price down - which will force a death cross.
Let's look at the weekly chart since we are looking at a long-term event. It has been a long, long time since BTC has gone under the 200MA on the weekly chart and we just did that last week. Looking at other assets it may take a while to recover If BTC does not manage to go over the 200 MA this or next week. In only 3 weeks BTC went from 10K to $3800 and as predicted, once the WHO made the announcement that COVID-19 is now a pandemic the biggest drop happened. As more information continues to come out about this event price is subject to drop as the overall health of the markets right now is not good. This, in the long run, will produce an opportunity to jump in at very low prices. There are other announcements coming that will prompt further drops, such as when the impact of this pandemic on the world economy is clearer. Keep this in mind, there are 3 phases to events like this; the uncertainty, the neutralization and the recovery. There will be a recovery phase and it can turn crypto into an investment opportunity once again if prices continue to drop. Needless to say, expect volatility in the next few days and weeks.
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Bitcoin - Oil and viruses don't mixLast week we were taken out of the trade by our stop losses, on my last post we talked about that if BTC dipped down to $8500 it needed to dip down quickly and move back up quicker otherwise momentum would be lost, we even had an $8200 buy order. What went wrong? We did have a dip down but it was very slow and the recovery was very slow as well and unconvincing. Combine these factors and you get a big red flag. Another warning signal was when price failed to go over the 50MA on the daily chart after trying for a couple of days. You have to take warnings like this seriously and accept when your trade has gone sideways. The very first warning signal was given by the 20MA on the daily chart last month on the 26th. What I want you all to understand is that price is not just going to melt down out thin air on you, warnings and red flags begin to pile up giving you enough time to make choices. Even if price is going up you'll know when things are about to go south. Last week Friday, the signals went out that this trade had come to an end, just a day later price started to drop.
On the weekly chart, you can see we have melted below the trendline if we close or stay below this line we will see a further drop.
WHATS NEXT?
As mentioned before now we begin to map out where to jump in again. As I did previously, the point is to catch it on key entry places on its way down until you nail the lowest safest entry point. This means you have to be patient and disciplined. Right now there are 3 places that we will talk about later. There is also one scenario that will create a perfect set up for alts which I've been looking forward to for a couple of years. If price continues to melt it will create the perfect conditions for this scenario to play out.
WHAT'S CAUSING THIS PRICE DROP
Market instability caused by two major events (Oil prices and the virus), BTC and consequently crypto, in general, were part of the Sunday sell-off. Oil dropped by an amazing amount (30%.) We also have a long week ahead in which we have to keep an eye on the Dow and Nasdaq to see if institutional money moves to safety some more. I would bet this is going to be a volatile week. The United States is completely unprepared and has no plan for the Coronavirus, this will create more market instability leading to bigger sell-offs. If the WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic it will create more instability.
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Bitcoin - What can we expect this weekAs the Dow dropped by 12.4% from Monday to Friday, BTC dropped by 24% during the same amount of time. Today the Dow showed signs of recovery so BTC is doing the same. Individual retail investors did not provoke the sell-off last week, institutional money did. We had a 74 Billion dollar drop in crypto between Monday and Friday, finding stabilization only after the markets had closed. This tells you that without the jitters of the major indices BTC wants to continue its own path, which is to move up. We'll continue to monitor both but eventually they will go their separate ways again.
WHAT'S BTC DOING NOW?
BTC is climbing up again trying to make its way above the 200 Moving average on the daily chart, this is a sign that there's upwards strength still. We want to see BTC close above the 200MA today and eventually close above the 50MA. These couple of moves have to happen in the next few days. The main reason is that momentum is still pushing up but eventually it will turn neutral and then down if we don't continue moving up. Keep in mind that BTC is currently working with a golden cross and it always has a positive effect on price. On the 6H chart, we were able to climb above the resistance line very decisively.
The area of concern behaved as expected, the two moving averages (the 20 and 50) were able to act as strong support and prevented BTC from moving further down for now. It also gave us the chance to buy BTC at around $8500 which was our 4rth buy zone, before moving back up.
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Bitcoin - In your dreams!There will never be another Bitcoin, but there will always be opportunities that can make you as much money as Bitcoin made early adopters. The trick is to be able to spot those opportunities and to take advantage of them, either in this asset class or when something new comes along. You'll like to think that if you bought BTC at $10 you'd be rich by now, the fact is you would have sold once BTC pulled back to $9.90. Why do I say that? Because a lot of you tend to listen to the crowd, when we hit 19k the crowd said to buy now because we'll hit one million soon, you bought and price fell to $3500 and so you panic sold along the way. The crowd says don't buy now because we're going to $600 so you don't buy at $3500 and we hit $14,000 and this manipulation will continue forever. If this is the story of your life now you know why. The good news is that a lot of you are beginning to catch on and are taking steps to make your own choices.
WHAT'S BTC DOING NOW?
On the daily chart, BTC is hanging around the 200MA too much, as expected it dipped under and it jumped back over it right away before closing. We are now back under it with the current candle set to close tonight. We had a buy order at $8500 which hit and one for ETH at $210.00 which was coordinated with BTC's dip, both turned out to be right on the nose. Needless to say, losing the 200MA on the daily time frame is a big deal. This drop immediately after the golden cross seems suspicious at best, but we'll give it the benefit of the doubt because we have a global event disrupting everyday life, not to mention that the Dow and other indices have taken a beating this week. Lastly, for those expecting to continue the move up, BTC needs to get to $9250 asap if we are to continue moving up. Hanging around $8600 - $8700 will lead to a tumble.
WHAT'S THE OUTLOOK?
None of us have experienced a pandemic so we are in uncharted territory, but in cases of national emergency, most people just want cash on hand, which will lead to withdrawals and a drop in prices. That being said there are a set number of places that price will have to visit if we keep falling and one of them will be the absolute bottom, our job is to map out that possible scenario. To be clear our trade continues as planned.
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Bitcoin - What can we expect this week?BTC has interacted with the support line non-stop for over a week now. The one thing worth noting is that it has refused to close under the line, today's candle will give us strong clues. What BTC is doing now looks a lot like what was happening from November to January before we started moving up (example 1.a). With support and resistance, you will test and retest support, the fundamentals behind that are that you are simply fulfilling more orders every time you hit support which prevents price from falling, simple supply and demand flow. We do need to start moving up because spending too much time testing this line or dipping below it simply means all buy orders will eventually get exhausted. Let's kee an eye on the $9200 and 8700 area.
THE AREA OF CONCERN
BTC is itching to go down here to the circled area (Example 1.b) in the chart below, that area has very strong support; It has the 50MA, the 20MA, and the secondary trend line waiting. We do have one last set of buy orders there. Since we are jumping in for the long term it will be beneficial to go there before moving up. The caveat is that we have to do it quickly since we are burning time just hanging around, what does that mean? That means that momentum is pointing up right now, and if we take too long to make it to $8500 we'll eventually move important moving averages down and force some death crosses making it harder to move up and over the red line.
SOMETHING TO WATCH
If today's candle just goes to the $9200 or $8700 area and then quickly moves back up above the white line, you can take that as more stop-loss hunting. If we close below the white line, we are looking to go to the $8500 - $8000 area.
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Bitcoin - Crypto the land of opportunityThe death cross had its effect and it was very short-lived. As of the 18th we have a golden cross that will have its positive effect on BTC's price, we have to look closely to see for how long. We do have a few indicators to track the strength and health of this effect. The goal with this golden cross will be to reach the 14k area which is where the next resistance point is.
WHATS BTC DOING?
BTC has now gone above resistance, it has come back down to support (this is when we bought back in) to test it and then retesting right now. So far it is going 100% according to plan. These are the details: We sold at resistance ($9100.00) price went over the 20MA and the white horizontal line and then came back down - just as I explained it would - to test and retest the white horizontal line this is when we bought back in with the bulk amount at $9600.00 - which is a safe entry point. What happened to those that didn't know better? They bought on the way up, they set up trailing stop losses and were taken out a few times as they repeated that non-sense strategy over and over again on the way back down to support.
We now have capital leftover (which is the profit from the last trade $6500 to $9100) in case of a further pullback. Right now we're hanging around support which is good and price has refused to go below the support line and that is a good indicator but BTC needs to generate one of those here I am!!! green candles to keep the momentum going. Also, the exchanges are doing their typical stop loss hunting below the now support line, but we've managed to stay out of that mess because we saw that coming.
THE AREA OF CONCERN
This is where things get a bit complex, we have a divergence of price and volume. Meaning as price has been going up, volume has been going down. However, for a few weeks price has been going up and we were due for some healthy pullback so this is normal. The MACD shows a possible crossover above the zero line which is positive. Overall we'll keep an eye on this time frame but there is a lot of positive here as well. If price goes down further we will use that leftover capital to buy even lower.
Trading without first learning and practicing is like an amateur playing football against an all-star pro-team and betting that he'll be the winner. You have exchanges, Algos and very experienced traders gunning for your money, the odds are stacked against you, big time. Take the time to learn and practice with small amounts before you risk your hard-earned money. If you learn to chart and do analysis no one can take that skill away from you, but if you trade without learning, your money is there for the taking. Trading can be the reason you lost your money or it can become a 24/7 piggy bank, you decide. PM me if you want to learn the right way.
A WORD TO THE WISE
1 -Do not short any coin unless you are an intermediate or expert trader, you will lose it.
2 -Put your money at play only once you find a low-risk high reward entry.
3 -Learn to chart and listen to fewer opinions.
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Bitcoin - Do I have your attention now?If you did not FOMO you are in great shape. Isn't it a great feeling when you let the trade come to you? We waited patiently until BTC came down to our buy point precisely (which was set a few weeks back.) You are now buying cheap and safe from those that bought as we were going up (due to bad advice), and from those that set old style trailing stop-losses. If you learned about stop losses from books that reference stock markets in the 1980's good luck, you'll be stuck in a hopeless strategy. Crypto moves differently therefore your strategies should be slightly different.
By now you can see the benefit of fixing your trading tempo, you are now buying low and will sell high once we get to the next designated sell point/resistance. On the last successful trade, you got to keep your profits because you sold at resistance and you will do so again next time. Now, let's hope for a further dip to our last key designated areas so we can tighten the screws on those without a proper stop-loss strategy. With this last move, we are going stop-loss hunting!
WHATS NEXT?
In the long term, we let the 50/200MA golden cross take effect and we let BTC run for a while. The next resistance point is around 14K, remember that we are expecting a further dip so do not sell if you see BTC going down. There is a lot of force telling us that in the long run, BTC is going up, and one indicator telling us that there will be one last temporary pullback, that indicator is the 3D chart, we don't know how far down we will go, but we did know it was going down, so we took advantage. Buying in small percentages in key places while going down is your best bet. Why? If BTC continues to go down after your main percentage hits, you have plenty of cash to buy in case it goes further down or up, with this strategy if BTC goes up you make money and if it goes down you make money.
HEADS UP
This next run will be good for Altcoins so you can't go wrong buying BTC is you have a large-cap portfolio and you will not go wrong if you buy alts if you have a small-cap portfolio.
If you are sick of losing money and you want to become a better trader PM me, I can help you. Crypto trading can either be a money pit or a piggy bank for you. What's the difference? Your trading style or lack of one.
A WORD TO THE WISE
Do not short any coin unless you are an intermediate or expert trader, you will lose your money.
Put your money at play only once you find a low-risk high reward entry.
Learn to chart and listen to fewer opinions.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
THE TREND: Beginning an uptrend
THE OUTLOOK: Potential golden cross around the 18th
Bitcoin - The good, the bad and the ugly - important!No question that there are solid good times ahead. Let's explore the charts and in different timeframes to find safe entry points, let's keep it short and informative.
WHATS BTC DOING NOW
We are currently going uphill with minor corrections along the way. We started loading up a few months back and got out once we hit resistance. We are looking to jump back in during pullbacks now that we have gone over resistance (which is the horizontal white line) and have confirmation that it is safe to jump in. Why is it safe?
First, the trend has been confirmed and we have a golden cross forming looking to cross over by the 18th - 19th, which will act as support and a booster of price the days after. Also, we are staying above resistance, all key moving averages are lining up (I have shown some of you the power of this chart.) So why did we get out a couple of weeks back? Because we hit resistance (under a death cross) and at that point, BTC can either go up slow or down fast, so we take our money out and keep the profits while we get confirmation, this is the only way to make and keep that money consistently. Your job is to protect your capital and any profits you make. If you set up trailing stop losses they get hit most of the time, and if you set them low enough you will lose most of your gains if we correct too much. Stop losses are one of the main reasons you can't make as much as you should. I have a way to avoid this continuous problem, let me know if you need help with this issue.
MORE GOOD NEWS
Here you have the Total Market cap chart that shows us how fast we are going up and how much money is currently pumping in, keep in mind that we simply can not keep going up this steep, I have shown you what happens previously when the climb is at an unsustainable angle. So what will happen? It will pull back to catch its breath. As you can see also in this chart we have a 50/200 golden cross.
4 HOUR UP-HILL RUN
Below you can see the beginning and if you can use the FIBO tool you can measure the strength of this run at every swing high and swing low. It has run up and has mainly stayed around the 23.6%, 38.2 and 50% retracement. I did show you before how to read these numbers and their significance. We have gone up so fast and steady that we are due for a moderate correction, says who? The odds.
POINT OF INTEREST - 3 DAY CHART
The weekly chart illustrates very well the possible pullback and to where. If you notice the trend and price have been going up and the volume has been going down. In this case, we will take this divergence as the sign that a possible pullback is coming. As of the last few days, the price has not kept up with the previous momentum. Overall the good news is that the pullback will be temporary, not continuous, the best part is that we will use this event to buy-in.
WE HAVE BTC WHERE WE WANT IT
If it goes up we keep buying on the pullbacks, if it goes down we have plenty of cash to buy lower, maybe even lower than when we got out. Patience and discipline are what wins this game.
A WORD TO THE WISE
1. Do not short any coin unless you are an intermediate or expert trader, you will lose your money.
2. Put your money at play only once you find a low-risk high reward entry.
3. Learn to chart and listen to fewer opinions.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
THE TREND: Sideways still
THE OUTLOOK: Potential golden cross around the 18th
Bitcoin - This is a business not a charityThe way I see it every trade should be a straight-up business transaction devoid of emotion. If you want to build wealth you only take low-risk high reward bets. Look at every choice you make and take that approach. Make a bet only when you know the odds are in your favor. Trading is no different, approach it as a business, learn how to value capital, think of your self as a wealthy and cheap person looking for low-risk high rewards investments. Your concern is not to ask when do we jump in, instead, ask yourself if this a safe bet and if the answer is yes then you take it. Even the smallest of capital was multiplied and built with this mentality. Use it, own it! How do you spot these opportunities in crypto trading? First, learn to chart so you can see these opportunities developing, learn to properly gauge your risk-reward ratio and stick with one position size strategy. I can show you how. PM if you have questions.
What is BTC doing now?
After a definitive move above resistance, Bitcoin is currently retracing most likely back to the support line (the white line.) The next few days will be very interesting since we have a few events to keep an eye on.
1) The 50MA is looking to crossover the 200MA which could be a very big boost to bitcoin's current uptrend, then there is another major event in the works that could propel BTC to the upper levels.
2) We have to wait and see if BTC retraces all the way to the support line. Be sure to set your buy order and have a good risk management strategy in place.
POINTS OF CONCERN
We are still under a 50/200MA death cross on the 1 day chart. Lastly, the 3-day chart concerns me a little, let's not get into it for now but let's put a pin on this chart and keep an eye on it.
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THE TREND: Neutral/Sideways
THE OUTLOOK: Potential golden cross around the 18th
Bitcoin - You've got this all wrong - Important!Most of you have entered trading with the wrong mentality but through the right door and so you will lose your money fast and without learning anything. You'll leave the trading world disappointed and minus your hard-earned cash without realizing that you were at the right place with the wrong mindset. Crypto offers what no other asset class does; you have the ability to enter trading with just a few dollars, you have the unique chance to risk little and learn lots. trading Crypto is a sink or swim scenario but there is hope if you just change your get rich quick mentality. You can make a lot of money in this asset class but not overnight.
There are some concepts that you still have to learn; from risk management to the predatory nature of unregulated exchanges, and if you don't take the time to do that you'll be stuck in the minor leagues forever. Trading is not complicated, what's complicated is finding the right trading style for your personality and needs.
Join the project to make technical analysis and charting more understandable and accessible to beginners, without learning your money will disappear not multiply. PM me if you need help.
WHAT'S BTC DOING NOW?
It has been a few days since BTC hit resistance and was not able to go over it, it has been on a range between $9200 and $9500. A big move is bound to come soon, up or down, but it is hard to know in which direction since both sides have an equal amount of pressure building up. In spots like this is when whales usually dump or pump hard, it will be very lucrative to go in either direction. So far algos have been eating stop losses up and down, so let's continue to stay out and just watch.
This is the tight range BTC has been in.
Also here you can see BTC is having a tough exiting resistance.
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THE TREND: Neutral / Sideways
THE OUTLOOK: More downward movement expected.
Bitcoin - Are you entertained? - Watch this!HOW TO COMBAT AND DEFEAT FOMO
If you look at just candles on your chart and nothing else, everything looks random and that's how most people see price movement, but once you put the right indicators and the right trend lines on your chart, you'll see a pattern, you'll also see intent, meaning where BTC is leaning towards. In other words, without the right lines and indicators, you are buying the top and selling the bottom, if you fix your charting, you'll fix your timing and FOMO will not be an issue. Specifically why? You'll have more awareness, knowing if you are on an uptrend or downtrend is very important, you always want to trade with the trend. Why? It's harder to make a costly mistake since momentum is going uphill (your way) anyways.
TRADER VS. INVESTOR
What is the biggest difference? An investor cares about the price of Bitcoin, a trader cares about risk. An investor is looking for long term value, a trader is looking to make money much sooner. As a beginner, you don't know the difference so you take on the personality of both. Most of you are interested in trading so you should not be concerned with the price as much, your only concern should be in finding low-risk high reward scenarios that don't come often but when they do they are very safe and deliver large returns. Take a look below; This example is of LTC last year this is what a large move looks like. You jump in after confirmation and you get out when the run is over.
MAY I REMIND YOU OF THE 50/200 DEATH CROSS
We are still trading under the 50/200MA death cross on the daily so we have to be cautious, yes we are seriously challenging the 200MA right now but if we lose the battle we will lose big and if we win we will win big. The point is to wait and let others take the risk since we are at 50/50 odds right now. The approach you have been taking has lost you money, take a different approach for once, one of discipline and patience and see how it works out for you.
WHATS BTC DOING RIGHT NOW
Besides depleting beginner's capital one poorly set stop loss at a time? It is trying to get more buyers to jump in and continue that move higher, but so far not many are stepping up to the challenge and so why should you! Let's wait and see if BTC has the strength to stay above resistance more than 3 candles in a row, in other words, let's wait for confirmation.
My style of trading works and I've proven to you over and over again that simplicity is best over complexity. Keep your eye on a few battlegrounds and you'll get good hints about BTC's intended direction. Reach out to me (PM me) if you want to become a better trader.
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THE TREND: Neutral / Sideways
THE OUTLOOK: More downward movement expected.
Bitcoin - What you've been doing this whole time!Timing is everything! When you enter a trade and when you close a trade determines your rate of success, with this in mind let's answer a common question: Can you make it as a day trader in Crypto? The answer is simple and unequivocal, NO! Why? You don't have that many options, the coins are very few and they all move in the same direction as BTC. Other than the top 10 or 20 coins which are safe, you'll quickly run out of safe options. So how do you make money in trading Crypto? Become a position or swing trader. We'll talk about that on another post, now back to timing. Crypto has a different rhythm just like every asset class, you'll make a lot of money if you understand how BTC and crypto move in general.
WHY ARE WE ON THE SIDELINES AFTER WINNING?
If you jump in right away, especially after a winning trade you'll start to give back your profits a few dollars at a time. How? You'll jump in at the wrong time and set a stop loss, it will get hit and you'll do that over and over again. By the time we reach the bottom your profits are gone and maybe you'll have less money than before. However, if you sit on the sidelines with cash + profit in hand while we find the new bottom you'll have more money to invest and that money will in return make you more profits because you are buying at cheaper prices. Now you are starting to see how timing is everything, patience and discipline are what creates those large payouts.
WHAT IS BTC DOING RIGHT NOW?
Bitcoin is taking another shot at the 200 moving average on the 1-day chart, which was expected since the rejection from the last encounter on the 19th was not strong enough. What's our gameplan right now? To wait for BTC to conquer the 200MA and the white line above it decisively before jumping in. We now have a new low, we just have to wait and see if BTC takes off from here to make a new high. Lastly, are my two "Buy Zones" still in play? Yes, they are and they will be until the odds of going there are too low. When will we know? I will tell you as the odds begin to fade.
Looking at the 6-hour chart you can see that we are still interacting that small channel so it is pointless to jump in (especially since we are near the top, another phrase for we are near the end of a run). Bitcoin has to go and close over that old resistance line very soon (which is what it is doing at this point), it can then take a rest on it to stage the move on the 200 MA back on the 1-day chart. Keep this in mind; Your concern as a trader is not price, your concern is a safe entry point where the odds are in your favor and the reward is worth the risk. There's no need to make 5 trades a week, with just 2 to three a year you can make plenty of money. You just have to learn how to find those low risk, high reward bets, reach out to me I can teach you how.
My style of trading works and I've proven to you over and over again that simplicity is best over complexity. Keep your eye on a few battlegrounds and you'll get good hints about BTC's intended direction. Reach out to me if you want to become a better trader.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
THE TREND: Neutral / Sideways
THE OUTLOOK: More downward movement expected.
Bitcoin - Simplicity over complexity wins the trade - ImportantAfter the last winning run, I showed you that support and resistance is a very simple concept that will make you money. We buy at an area where there is a lot of support and we sell as soon as we hit resistance, it works consistently and your number of winning trades will go up a lot. What is the key ingredient of this style of trading? Simple, patience and discipline. You have to let the trade come to you and you have to sell as soon as you hit resistance.
WHERE DO WE STAND NOW?
Our trade is over and we are sitting on 100% no trade is open. We made some profit so we sit on the sidelines and wait for another very low risk and high reward opportunity. Buying at around 7K is a very low risk set up, but that means having enough discipline to see green candles form and still letting BTC come to you. Keep in mind that it has to go up from time to time in order to come down. What you don't want to do is jump back in simply because you're feeling lucky, let the trade come to you. We will also keep an eye on that 50MA that can act as a bounce-off point.
SO WHAT IF?
What if BTC takes off like a rocket from here? Great, then we buy in after it goes over resistance (what is resistance? The 200MA and the white horizontal line right above) and on the pullback. Let the others take the risk and we come in only when our money is safe and the trade is favorable to us. BTC in no way and under any circumstance will ever go to 20K in one candle, so do not FOMO. What will happen is that you will buy at the top of a run and right away comedown during the pullback, panic sell at the bottom and then watch BTC go back up without you. This, in essence, is what you've been doing with BTC and Altcoins all along. If so, what you have to do is fix your timing. How do you fix it? Reach out to me if you want to become a better trader I can help you.
THE NEW RECOMMENDED BUY ZONE
Set a buy order at around 7k and if it hits it hits and if it does not? Simple, we'll find another very safe jump-in point. The idea is not to simply put our money in, the idea is to put our money in once we have a very low-risk high reward situation in front of us.
My style of trading works and I've proven to you over and over again that simplicity is best over complexity. Keep your eye on a few battlegrounds and you'll get good hints about BTC's intended direction. Reach out to me if you are willing to work towards becoming a better trader.
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THE TREND: Neutral / Sideways
THE OUTLOOK: More downward movement expected.
Bitcoin - That's it, I'm out guys, I've hit my limit.When this happens you have no choice but to pull the plug, it is pointless to keep going. It happened three days ago and the best thing to do in cases like this is to leave, pull-out, end it! So yes I am talking about me being 100% percent back in cash after we hit resistance. Just as I predicted the small pivot BTC made meant that it was gonna try to reach out to the 200MA. I closed all of my positions, I hope you all have done the same. Anyways, we hit resistance and now as you can see we were not able to go over the 200MA on the 1-day chart. One month ago I told you this would happen, Also one month ago I told you when and where to buy so you could cash in on this move.
WHAT'S NEXT?
Simple, let BTC tell us what to do. If we go over resistance (the 200MA on the 1-day chart), let's buy on the pullback, if we go down, we'll wait for stabilization and jump back in. A lot of you are understanding how the game is played, I heard from a few and some indeed made some nice profits on the last run. Only the ones that did not FOMO made a profit. So let me be clear: Do not jump back in until we have clarity. The game goes on forever and there are always opportunities to go back in, no need to panic buy because we went up a few candles or down. BTC goes up by a lot but it also comes down by a lot, the point is to know and understand basic charting so you know if you are at the right spot to buy. You could find your self in the middle of a run or towards the end of a run, and those are places where the odds are not that good for you. How do you lose money? Easy, when you buy at the top and ride it all the way down, you then sell and BTC goes back up without you. That just means you are not charting properly and that your timing is off. I can help you fix your bad timing, and start teaching you charting. Reach out to me and I will guide you.
What to keep an eye on now?
This is a look at the 4H time frame, here you can see what is going on with the 50 moving average. If we close too many times under it we will go down. So far BTC is locked under the old support line (the red one) which now is resistance, it is also stuck under the 50MA but running sideways and not down. What BTC needs to do is get over the 50MA asap. Please make sure you have closed out your previous trades, as of right now we are simply watching for clarity.
My style of trading works and I've proven to you over and over again that simplicity is best over complexity. Keep your eye on a few battlegrounds and you'll get good hints about BTC's intended direction. Reach out to me if you want to become a better trader.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
Why has the "B" for bitcoin in my chart gone from red to yellow? Because we have stopped doing lower lows and we have exited the secondary downtrend channel. BTC is acting neutral for now.
Follow me and you'll know exactly which coins to buy and when to buy to maximize your profits.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trend lines are green
Resistance trend lines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Neutral
THE OUTLOOK: Finishing a rally
Bitcoin - What's going on today? - ImportantWe are extremely close to our $9100 goal, what made BTC go down after getting so close yesterday? Simple, weak hands and manipulation. Weak hands mean that a lot of traders sold before the goal, manipulation means that the exchanges then went stop loss hunting, which is why it is best not to set stop losses. Now, let's not lose our heads let's keep things in perspective; We have gone from $6400 to $8900 in one month, that's a pretty good gain, there has to be a pullback once in a while and pullbacks have a reason as I explain above. To be clear I have not sold anything, the plan is to offload everything once we hit the 200MA. How am I going to offload? Be trailing the Altcoins I have money in with a stop loss.
If you want to get adventurous you can trail BTC or your Altcoin with a tight stop-loss until we hit the $9400 area, why $9400? It is the top of the triangle that BTC has been in for a few years now. We are in a no-lose scenario, if you sell and it keeps going up we can pick it up again after confirmation on the pullback. If this sounds very technical, no worries I will guide you along and you will know what that means in due time. Also, if it drops we can pick it up for cheaper. There is not much to lose by selling between 9100 to 9400.
This looks pretty good for Altcoins. BTC dropped quite a bit in dominance which is why coins like LTC (Which I own a lot) went up so much the last couple of days. If this continues to drop -- which I was counting on months ago, Altcoins are going to rise fast and very high.
Keep n eye on the 4 hour chart,so far this fibo set up has been very reliable when it comes to keeping us informed.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
Why has the "B" for bitcoin in my chart gone from red to yellow? Because we have stopped doing lower lows and we have exited the secondary downtrend channel. BTC is acting neutral for now.
Follow me and you'll know exactly which coins to buy and when to buy to maximize your profits.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trend lines are green
Resistance trend lines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Neutral
THE OUTLOOK: In a rally
Bitcoin - Think about what you're doing...BTC is currently resting atop the 100 moving average on the 1-day chart, this moving average is going to start pressing Bitcoin for an answer in the next few days. As you can see the ceiling, for now, is the white resistance line. I am optimistic that BTC will jump above the resistance line, why? We have not lost the 100 as support for a few days, this means that BTC wants to use it as a base to spring up above. Also, another small sign is that the 100 is beginning to point up. Need another sign? Ok, we hit the 50% pullback (retracement) and bounced up from there, that's a sign of a healthy run. Again and again, we are still under a death cross which means we are only partially excited about BTC going up because this run could be over at the 100 moving average, which will be a pretty good payday for a lot of us.
Over at the 3-day chart, we don't have the best of news for the long term since the 50 moving average is crossing the 100 moving average down. When a faster-moving average is below a slower moving one it is not good. To understand this in an easier way let me put it like this; If the 20 crosses below the 50 that's not good if the 50 crosses below the 100 that's not good. Overall if a moving average with a smaller number crosses down one with a higher number, it could mean bad news. Below you can see the 50 in yellow wanting to cross the 100 in blue. It is not a major thing but let's put a pin on it. If we find more bad news on other time frames then we'll start to worry.
THIS IS THE IMPORTANT PART
Let's look at the relationship that the 200 Moving average has with price (use the main 1 day chart as reference). We are also going to look at the behavior of this moving average while we are under the 50/200MA death cross. Typically BTC will drop in price (which it already did) and then it will form a base (which it's in the process of doing) it will then start taking shots from that base at the 200 moving average and it will get rejected a few times (We have not done that even once yet.) The base, for now, appears to be $6800 it will then use this base price to take a shot at the 200MA which is at $9100, it will more than likely get rejected back to the $6800 region.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
Why has the "B" for bitcoin in my chart gone from red to yellow? Because we have stopped doing lower lows and we have exited the secondary downtrend channel. BTC is acting neutral for now.
Follow me and you'll know exactly which coins to buy and when to buy to maximize your profits.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trend lines are green
Resistance trend lines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Going Down
THE OUTLOOK: A rally may be coming soon.
Bitcoin - Is BTC is good health? Let's seePart of going up is going down, no asset ever goes up and continues going up. the current pullback is part of going up so long as it does not close too many times under support. We have now closed once under the 100MA, we have to return above it tonight or tomorrow night at the latest. For now, it seems to be running down the old resistance line now support, as you can see my 6-month-old chart is aging amazingly well. The fact is that we have come down because a lot of traders have exited their positions which is normal when you hit resistance. Soon you will be a big part of driving price down along with me once we hit our resistance goal.
When do we expect BTC to push back up?
Let's look at the 6-hour chart, I have marked it very well so you understand exactly what every resting point means. I recommended to the traders that got out too early to get back in right at the 50% and 61.8% and wouldn't you know it, we hit it and congratulations to you all.
What is the one thing we do not want BTC to do?
We do not want it to go under the 100MA on the weekly chart, which has become strong support, if we close under even one time the math says that it will be difficult to pop over again. What does this chart tell us right now? The 20MA stopped the up momentum, the 100MA is the support and the 50MA is where we are resting right now. The headline here is that BTC is still moving upwards.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
Why has the "B" for bitcoin in my chart gone from red to yellow? Because we have stopped doing lower lows and we have exited the secondary downtrend channel. BTC is acting neutral for now.
Follow me and you'll know exactly which coins to buy and when to buy to maximize your profits.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trend lines are green
Resistance trend lines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Going Down
THE OUTLOOK: A rally may be coming soon.
Bitcoin - Here's something you don't know - Important!When do you know that BTC is going up even though it looks like it is going down? Simple, the constant bluffing, it keeps dipping under the trend line but goes back up before it creates irreversible damage. What is irreversible damage? Closing too many candles under a trend line or a moving average, because if it closes too many candles under resistance it creates unintended consequences such as another whale or too many buyers exiting the trade. In other words, the whale or exchange that's currently manipulating price could lose control over the situation they created, to avoid this they return price to a safe place (above the trend line) every one or two candles. Keep this in mind; Trading is manipulated by algorithms, algorithms are not hard to crack.
WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?
We've exited the long-standing downtrend channel, this channel was started back in June of last year and it has been nearly impossible to leave. We also have conquered all 3 of the obstacles that were holding us back and those obstacles have now become support. Our eye now is on the "Short term goal" depending on how we get there we may hold or sell immediately upon touching. If we get there in one fast candle we shall sell because that would indicate that we are coming down fast. If we get there slow we are looking at a possible sustainable uptrend and we should hold and set a stop loss instead. Why is there a concern about coming down? Simple, the death cross of the 50/200MA back in October. We are still under its influence and it is not that easy to escape, in fact in we go up fast, such as in one candle, the drop will be very significant because of it. Either way as I explained to you all back before the death cross happened it will take months to escape it, and this move that we are in the middle of and its outcome was also predicted months ago.
We are currently stuck here between the 20MA and the 100MA in the 3 day chart.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and I also thank you for yours.
Follow me and you'll know exactly which coins to buy and when to buy to maximize your profits.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trend lines are green
Resistance trend lines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Going Up
THE OUTLOOK: The Rally is here.
Bitcoin - Do I have your attention now?Back on December 20th, I noticed that BTC has started a shift towards going up. When you gain enough experience you'll see these shifts the day they happen and you start cashing in on them right away. I was making a case against the tide, footprints of a pivot are very subtle and most analysts can't see them. The consensus was that we were going down some more, my view was that we were building a temporary bottom. You have to know which time frames to use and how to draw proper trend lines to spot shifts like the one we had. Once you become an experience analyst it is really hard to fool you, you will know that we are going down even if we appear to be going up and likewise.
WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?
BTC is continuing a steady rise, so what makes a coin go up in price in terms of technical analysis? Easy, it's a snowball effect. There are buy orders stacked above all of the barriers that you see in the chart above, such as the 50 moving average and the trend line. As soon as we successfully go over each obstacle the buy orders kick in and when that happens price goes up, when the price goes up more buyers come in and they push the price over the obstacles and so on... Now that you understand how that works let's get back to what is happening now. BTC did jump over the 50MA on the 1-day chart so potentially this will create a very strong support area. If we stay on this path a long green candle may be generated and that will try to reach the 100 moving average. Between here and the 100 moving average there is not much of an obstacle, so it is very reasonable to think we will go for it.
Keep this in mind: As a trader when do you start making money? When consensus points in one direction but you properly read the chart and you know it is going the other.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
Follow me and you'll know exactly which coins to buy and when to buy to maximize your profits.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trend lines are green
Resistance trend lines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Building a possible bottom
THE OUTLOOK: A rally may be coming soon.
Bitcoin - It's only gone when it's gone.Where we are right now has all the makings of a temporary bottom, we've been trying to overcome this $7000 to $7500 area since November 21st, and at this point, the headline is that BTC refuses to go down, that shift I pointed out on the last post is very telling. If you look closely at my 1D chart you can see that we have been testing all kinds of support while running uphill, this tells me that BTC is setting up a temp bottom. Keep in mind that we are not risking anything at this point, we are just watching. That move up today might have been to rekt potential shorts. For now, let's keep an eye on price and the 50MA on the 1D, this moving average has been denying an up move since December 23rd. As of right now we are yet again trying to go over it, we'll have to see how that plays out. If we go over the 50MA we will try to run-up to the 100MA which is now combined with the red trend line and that my friends will be interesting to see.
As you can see --below-- Bitcoin has been staying above the 100 MA on the 1W chart, this week we have to close above $7600 to cement that bottom, if we don't, the instability will continue and going down simply opens up again.
What is happening right now is pure instability, I see exchanges wrecking shorts and stop-loss hunting. As I 've always told you, don't play the short-term game, continue to buy at the indicated spots and you should be fine in the long run. The "Mother of all buy zones" is still in play, the move up to the "Short term goal" is only a temporary move, long term I still see BTC moving down further.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip for me, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time.
Follow me and you'll know exactly which coins to buy and when to buy to maximize your profits.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trend lines are green
Resistance trend lines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Going Down
THE OUTLOOK: A rally may be coming soon.
Bitcoin - Shift HappensA few weeks back I made a post about how BTC appears to have made a shift from running downhill to starting a slow uphill jog. Is this slow walk uphill going to hold? So far it has (for two weeks now) but we're about to find out since we are coming up to a decision point very quickly. There is one area of concern that can answer the question, but we'll circle back to that in a bit.
In the smaller time frames, BTC has been on a sideways range. On the 4H chart, BTC has managed to stay around the 61.8% pull-back.
On the 6H chart, BTC is showing weakness since it has lost the 50MA for now and yet to conquer the 20MA, Also, it is about to close candle #3 under the 50MA -- which is not good at all. Price needs to be above $7600, keep this number in mind it is a key number.
Let's bring it in together. The area of concern is the 1W chart, BTC has got to close a few candles above the 50MA very soon or we are going down. Simply put BTC has to close at $7600 this week's candle which is a key number now. Out of all of these things, what do you need to keep an eye on? Keep looking at the 1W chart if BTC closes under the blue line we go down, if BTC closes above the yellow line we'll go up. Need it simpler? BTC needs to close above $7600 by Sunday night.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time.
Follow me and you'll know exactly which coins to buy and when to buy to maximize your profits.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trend lines are green
Resistance trend lines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Going Down but finding stability
THE OUTLOOK: Beginning to see the end of the downtrend a rally may be coming soon.
Bitcoin - The resistance is combining forces and this will...BTC better get on board or it will find itself on the bad side. As you can see the 50MA is dropping towards the trend line, once those two combine forces, it will become strong resistance, but if BTC goes over the 50MA the two become strong support.
I will breakdown for you the two options in detail. Keep in mind we are focusing on the big moves, not the little moves. If once the 50MA hits the trend line BTC goes over the 50MA we will try to reach the 200MA which is now around $9300. If once the 50MA hits the trend line BTC goes under, we will hit 5K, That simple.
The fact remains that BTC has been respecting the green trend line now for almost two weeks, which will make other buyers grow confident which can start that domino effect that will lead to a big green candle. I drew this line a few months back and I was questioned, it is now obvious that this was the line BTC was going to use. Once you have enough experience these things just jump at you. What else is obvious right now? That BTC wants to run-up to the 200MA on the daily chart.
TA is extremely simple, the more complicated you make it, the more guessing is involved. Keep it simple and you can see the next move a few weeks or a few days back. In the coming days, I will post an explosive sure shot of a trade I've found, stay tuned.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of paying me for my time.
Follow me and you'll know exactly which coins to buy and when to buy to maximize your profits.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trend lines are green
Resistance trend lines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Going Down but finding stability
THE OUTLOOK: Beginning to see the end of the downtrend a rally may be coming soon.