Trade Management
AUDJPY LONGTRADE ENTRY TRIGGERED ON FRIDAY ....PRICE RETRACED TO LEVEL OF ENTRY......
NOW WE WAIT AND SEE WHAT PRICE TELLS US - LOOKING FOR A STRONG NEW HIGH TO ENABLE SL MOVE
GBP AUD LONGTrade Triggered (Blue Circle), created new high, once it moves higher i will move STOP close to B/E
USD CAD LONGConsolidation Break Out......consolidation formation structure, double bottom....
Trade Entry sorted......
Let Price do its magic.
GBPJPY LONGTRADE ENTERED - AND PRICE ENTERED A PERIOD OF CONSOLIDATION, LOOKING FOR PRICE TO HEAD UPWARDS, CREATING A NEW HIGH AND START OF A TREND....
PRICE ACTION WILL MAKE MY DECISIONS FOR ME, I JUST WAIT FOR IT TO TELL ME....
EURCHF SHORTSTOP MOVED TO LOCK IN PROFIT AFTER PRICE BREAKS TREND......LOOKING LESS BEARISH BUT WE WILL SEE.....
CRUDE OIL LONG WATCHLISTTHIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO MY WATCHLIST - PRICE LOOKING EXTENDED OVER A NICE PERIOD OF TIME.....LOOKING FOR PRICE TO SET UP AS MY TRADING PLAN SUGGESTS AND GO LONG...
LET PRICE DO THE TALKING,.....
EURUSD: Active management/A structure trade review (w/video)THIS IS NOT A TRADING IDEA, more of a recap. Earlier this week I posted a chart of the EURUSD that had three potential bearish patterns setting up in the same area. In that post I mentioned that I was also involved in a long position on the Euro. Well after 24 hours of doing absolutely nothing this pair finally decided to rally and move in my favor. Throughout the week I've gotten numerous messages about that position and since I never posted it here's a quick look at what was on my mind.
Unlike advanced patterns, when I involve myself in a structure based trade I look to actively manage it. The "black flags" on the chart were potential profit taking levels for me and as price action approached them I would keep a close eye on the reaction. A positive sign would lead me to stay in the trade, while a negative sign would cause me to take my profits and fight again another day. The blue lines are an example of how i managed my stop/loss while the position was in progress. While the green flag is where I ultimately ended up taking off my final profits.
Now before you yell at me about "not catching the entire move" please take a look at the video i just uploaded to my YouTube channel explaining the "Pros" and "Cons" of active management vs shooting for a static target area.
www.youtube.com
Analysis of yesterday's trade - Harmonic setup on $GBPNZDOne of my successful trades yesterday was this hourly harmonic pattern (bat pattern) on $GBPNZD.
It was a setup sent to the members on my weekly members letter and we had couple of entry points to choose from.
I've just posted a blog post discussing about this trade and the dilemma we had regarding our possible entry points.
You can read the blog post here:
marketzone.tumblr.com
XAUUSD inverse H&S, break up of necklineRecently, Gold broke up above intermidiate resistance/neckline. On chart, you can see inverse Head and Shoulders pattern which usually leads to reversal of previous trend. Since Reversal candle on the 1st of January of 2015 it feels much more constructive. Nice 2 days of rally after that actionable signal. Then it broke up resistance at $1,204 which later became our new pivot support. After 3 days of rally we have small reversal candle which may lead to digestion or pullback (reason to cover some if you are long, doesn't mean short) that is healthy as gold already gained 4.5% since the beginnig of new 2015 year.
First area to look for entry Long is $1,223 - break point of neckline and previous swing high. Then we have 21 EMA and bigger support at $1,204.
From fundamental point of view we can see increase in demand, as wedding season takes place in many countries. India is prominent one.
My first intermidiate target is $1,255. Macro target $1,300-$1,330
DAX potential short scenario on Fundamentals and TechnicalsJust days before Germany's much anticipated third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data is released, business leaders and policy makers warn that euro zone's largest economy has lost its competitiveness and is on the brink of recession.
German Stock Index DAX is grinding high for the last 3-4 weeks after a sharp down move. It is building nice consolidation and I think resolution of this chanel will give us another directional move. My bias is to the downsideas price is below 200 EMA for a long time and failed to hold above during recent sessions. Data on Friday could be a good catalyst.
Break down and close below 9,200 support will trigger my short entry with stops above 1/2 of this range at 9,300 then we have 9,400 as important mark. My first target is 8,900.
AUDUSD: What To Do For Target Two'sObviously the bulk of this trade has already played out but following up on yesterday's blog post and this mornings training lesson. I wanted to take a look at how I actively manage a trade. One this I continue to tell the traders I work with is to "think like the other trader" so seeing how I'm in a bullish position, what I like to do is break down the chart and look for where I would want to get involved if I were on the bearish side.
As you can see I've predicted 2 potential reversal zones, the first being at a zone that features inside resistance looking left along with some Fibonacci confluence (127.2 extension & 161.8 inversion). The higher level features a 161.8 extension and an equal measured harmonic move.
So where is the right place to exit? Well price action will let me know.
For the original idea behind the trade check out yesterday's blog post.
ratiotradingmentor.com
Gold tactical Reversal play near Major supportRisk management: previous low of the day $1,1190 is key if bulls want to continue, then we have low of the day $1,182.67. Below this I am out of my tactical reversal play from major support.
First target is 8 EMA $1,208 that is tracking this trend since breakdown of wedge, then we have $1,225 as next target.
WMT poking its head and looks ready to goNice, bull candle closed near highs,that resolved wedge with bunch of inside, choppy and noisy candles.
Lets see to what it leads, need to hold breakout point at $76.90.
As markets recent momentum remains neutral to negative and long-term macro picture in Wal-Mart is neutral it makes probability of this trade lower. I manage probability of trades with tier system. So, may initiate long trade above $77.50 with tier 1.
USDCAD continues upward march - how to manage your tradeI wanted to share this trade idea because its a great example of how to manage your trades once the market moves in your favor.
Notice that since I got in a big hurry to get in this trade, my entry, while decent, could have been much better. If I had just waited a few more days with a nice limit order sitting on the red sliding parallel, then I would have had an outstanding entry location with an extremely small stop. Well...make a better plan next time and deal with this trade now.
Now that we have formed a nice new swing low as price is climbing upward, I can move my stop upwards to the red line at 1.0905. When another swing low forms and its confirmed by taking out highs, I will move my stop up again below that.
I'm also working my profit target order upwards along the upper channel as price moves to the right on the chart.
Some basic info on making your trading plan and sticking to it: www.itradingforex.com
In an ideal world...Buy oppurtunity at perfect bullish Cypher completion then trade management looking for this ideal scenario to happen.
SLB sentiment changing to bearishDuring this recent move up in S&P (100 handles from the last bottom) Oil&Gas ($XOP) stayed one of the weakest sectors and specifically shares of Slumberger.
After exhausted move up on the end of June, it entered into correction and broke down its 50 EMA that was in control since the beginning of 2014.
Now, sellers keep preassure and hold resistance at $110 which could be stop line for short position.
My approach is active trade management. Initiate tier 1 now, then add on break down of $107.50 gap point, then add if it will close and hold below $105.39 with target at $102 - reasonable level, earlier it acted like resistance and now should act like support.
BAC relative weaknessBank of America lags behind the market, ant usually that indicates some weakness. Key level in this action is $15.30, the breakdown of which previously led to a drop to $14.85. Now it acts as a resistance and underneath a bear flag has been formed, breakdown of which will attract more sales. Potential entry points are marked on the chart with orange bands.
NTAP showing relative strength above important levelNetApp holds well above broken resistance level at $38. This is very important level as it is in play since March. We had some clues before break up as buyers managed to build series of higher lows with recent bottom at $36. Below this, idea will loose its luster.
As broad market entered into corrective phase, i like how this specifique stock showing us relative strength and wedging above important level. Sector of Data Storage devices also keeps its buying momentum ($WDC, $STX, $VMW).
Use your trade and risk management rules to keep odds on your side and control risk the same time. I am tier 1 here, add tier 2 if market will find its footing, add tier 3 on break og wedge. If it will go through $39, it will open doors to $41.
