⚖️ How Much You Need To Recover LossesWhen an investment's value fluctuates, the amount of money required to bring it back to its initial value is equal to the amount of change, but with the opposite sign. When expressed as a percentage, the gain and loss percentages will be different. This is because the same dollar amount is being calculated as a percentage of two different initial amounts.
📌The formula is expressed as a change from the initial value to the final value.
Percentage change = ( Final value − Initial value ) / Initial value ∗ 100
Examples:
🔹 With a loss of 10%, one needs a gain of about 11% to recover. (A market correction)
🔹 With a loss of 20%, one needs a gain of 25% to recover. (A bear market)
🔹 With a loss of 30%, one needs a gain of about 43% to recover.
🔹 With a loss of 40%, one needs a gain of about 67% to recover.
🔹 With a loss of 50%, one needs a gain of 100% to recover.
(If you lose half your money you need to double what you have left to get back to even.)
🔹 With a loss of 100%, you are starting over from zero. And remember, anything multiplied by zero is still zero.
As the plot graph showcased on the idea, after a percentage loss, the plot shows that you always need a larger percentage increase to come back to the same value
To understand this, we can look at the following example:
$1,000 = starting value
$ 900 = $1,000 - (10% of $1,000), a drop of 10%
$ 990 = $ 900 + (10% of $900), followed by a gain of 10%
The ending value of $990 is less than the starting value of $1,000.
🧠 Psychological Aspect:
Investors should be able to mentally admit that they have incurred a loss, which is expected in trading. The investor should give some time to heal the process and only keep a close watch on the market situation. Huge losses incurred might disrupt the decision-making skill and stop trading for a few days until the confidence is regained. There should be the right focus to approach the right opportunities, and there should not be any regrets of any loss during trading.
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Trade Management
Target reached! GBPUSD ReviewPrice bounced off the 1.2683 support we identified and rose nicely to our take profit target at the 1.2832 level. In this review, we touch on why we used the 1.2832 level and not the swing high at 1.2850 - a lot of this is down to trade management and take profit placement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): **
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Target Reached! USDCHF ReviewPrice reversed beautifully from the sell entry level we forecasted at 0.8988 and has reached the take profit target of 0.8908. The important lesson here is to place your take profit before a key level (vs right at the key level). As you can see in this video, price touched the TP level and took off in the other direction - just missing this crucial bit of information would have been potentially costly.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): **
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Forex Trading Key FactorsImportant factors that if well approached, will ensure your long term success.
Forex trading is a popular form of investing that involves buying and selling currencies in the foreign exchange market. As with any form of trading, success in forex trading requires a deep understanding of the market and the key factors that impact profitability. In this blog post, we'll discuss some of the most important factors that traders need to keep in mind when trading forex.
Liquidity: The Lifeblood of Forex Trading
Liquidity refers to the ease with which a trader can buy or sell an asset without affecting its price. In forex trading, liquidity is crucial because it ensures that traders can enter and exit positions quickly and at a fair price. Traders should look for currency pairs that have high trading volumes and low bid-ask spreads to ensure they have access to liquid markets.
Void Gaps: Managing Risk and Protecting Profits
Void gaps occur when there is a sudden and significant change in the price of a currency pair due to unexpected news or events. These gaps can be dangerous for traders because they can cause losses or missed opportunities. To avoid void gaps, traders should use stop-loss orders and other risk management strategies to protect their positions and profits.
Mindset: Discipline and Focus are Key
Forex trading requires a disciplined and focused mindset. Traders must be able to control their emotions, avoid impulsive decisions, and stick to their trading plan. Common psychological traps that traders should be aware of include fear, greed, and overconfidence. By developing a disciplined and focused approach to trading, traders can improve their chances of success.
Selecting the Right Trading Sessions: Timing is Everything
Forex markets are open 24 hours a day, five days a week. However, not all trading sessions are created equal. Traders should select the sessions that align with their trading style and goals. For example, traders who prefer short-term trading strategies may find the London and New York sessions to be the most active and volatile, while those who prefer longer-term strategies may focus on the Asian session.
Patience: The Virtue of Successful Traders
Patience is a virtue in forex trading. Traders should avoid the temptation to jump into trades too quickly or exit them too soon. Impatience can lead to costly mistakes, such as entering trades that don't meet the trader's criteria or closing profitable positions too early. By exercising patience and waiting for the right opportunities, traders can improve their chances of success.
Execution: Putting Theory into Practice
Executing trades properly is essential for success in forex trading. Traders should use stop-loss orders, position sizing, and risk management strategies to protect their capital and maximize their profits. They should also be aware of the potential impact of slippage, which occurs when the price at which a trade is executed differs from
Focusing on winning trades is your setback as a beginnerEvery individual begins their trading journey with the idea that trading is all about winning trades and making money. Soon after their dreams are shattered when they realise it was not as easy as they had thought it would be. Now as we all know, the road to success to many is long and difficult, and that’s exactly what makes them successful. So why should the road to success in trading be any different? Look at top performing athletes, they trained for years before reaching any kind of success that definitely did not occur overnight. This bring me to my main point where many traders could be failing due to focusing on winning trades rather than the process it takes to become a good trader.
Every trader beginning their journey needs to understand that trading the financial markets is no different than a top performing athlete. In order to achieve success, one needs to develop their skills over years. Instead of focusing on winning every single trade, one should be focusing on the process and the experience they are gaining over this time. Studying your mistakes, your losses, your psychological weaknesses, your analysis, and your understanding of the charts, are far more important at this stage than focusing on winning trades. Look at your trading journey like a student attending university, a student will learn over years different topics, where some will seem worthless at the time, but will however develop their skills in the necessary fields to succeed in the future.
Every beginner should deeply focus on the process. Winning trades are a by-product of a developed successful strategy which also requires a developed individual. The trader needs to be developed in their psychology above all in order to trust their strategy and apply it correctly without deviating from the plan. Take the time to focus on all aspects of your trading, and let the winning trades come as a result of that in the future. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint, always remember that.
Deciding Lot Sizes (My Method)A crucial decsion traders must make on each and every trade they take is lot sizes. What's the ideal lot size to take? What's the metric in which a trader uses to solve this ordeal?
Here's my method:
1.) Start off with a high lot size. Say....7 normal lots.
2.) At this point, when imagining trading with this lot size you should feel a sense of anxiety, nervousness or even excitement.
3.) Bring down the lot size by 1.
4.) At 6 lots ask yourself, "Do I still feel any sense of anxiety, nervousness or excitement? If you do, bring down the lot size by 1.
5.) Repeat this process until you don't feel any "slight" sense of anxiety, nervousness or excitement.
6.) Using the above mentioned process, if you reached 3 lots, further bring down the lot size by 1.
7.) The outcome is 2 normal lot sizes.
- Using this process to find the ideal lot size eliminates a host of unwanted phycological issues that can deter how you : analyze price, decide targets/stop loss, and how you manage an open trade.
- I've read and heard various methods over the years, but after close to 20 years of trading, this is the method I currently use.
That's it!
I hope it helps!
Ken
Should I stay or should I go?Three factors for good trade management
Knowing when to make your move is key to being a successful and profitable trader. Here are three things you need to handle to keep on track:
1. Know the probability of the trade
Make sure you know whether your trade is low or high probability and whether it’s against the trend or with it. If a trader goes long in a short market it’s a low-probability trade so more than likely it is going to end up in a losing trade.
If you have a high-probability trade that failed, the market likely wants to change direction. If you have a high-probability trade that you don’t make a lot of points on, it means the market is slowing down or reversing.
Sometimes low-probability trades also bring in points. Lower probability trades are against the prevailing trend, so taking a trade to the opposite side becomes preferable and may end up being a high-probability trade. That is because the trends start to change from the lower time frames to the higher timeframes. But you have to keep an eye on the higher ones especially as it might be a retracement on a higher-level timeframe (typically a 5 or 15 minute timeframe).
2. Know your rules for risk
Be very clear how much money you want to allocate to a trade. Is your rule that you only ever risk half a percent per position or a maximum of 6% of your portfolio on any one trade? Having this clear boundary means that if you lose a few percent it doesn’t make a material difference to your account, your mindset and your wellbeing.
Remember that your risk management will improve over time. Never get put off by the occasional trade that goes against you. If it doesn’t work out, look at your trading plan and see where there is something that could be changed.
3. Practice your strategy and approach
Believe in your system and stick to it and your trading plan strictly, even if it looks like the market is going against you. Of course not all trades will be successful - with any business you have profits and losses. As long as the profits are more than the losses it’s ok.
It’s about practice too, which includes practicing the skill of not doing anything for a few hours until you see a setup that meets your criteria. You never want to be making involuntary or emotional moves.
Pay Attention To These AreasIn this video we update our strategy for managing the EUR/JPY position that we took on Sunday as well as looking at some potential structures that could provide significant impulsive moves over the coming 24 hours.
Certainly some exciting times ahead. Let me know your thoughts?
WHY MONEY MANAGEMENT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE OF TRADING!Hey Traders here us a quick video that explains why money mangement is essential to trading success. Regardless of what level of trading education and experience you are this can benefit your trading. Without proper risk management it is very difficult if not impossible to protect your investment capital. Trading is a game of probabilities and in order to come out ahead I think it's important to know when to risk more or when to risk less. Especially when you are on a role in a winning streak vs waiting for the tides to turn during a losing streak.
Enjoy!
Trade Well
Clifford
Learn TOP 5 Tips For Trade Management 📖
Hey traders,
In this post, I will share with you my tips for trade management.
But first, let me elaborate on what is exactly a trade management.
Trade management is the set of rules and techniques applied for managing of an already active position.
Trade management is a very important element of any trading strategy that should never be neglected.
1. Never remove a stop loss
Being in a huge loss, many traders refuse to admit that they are wrong. Instead, watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss, they remove stop loss hoping on a coming reversal.
The alternative situation may happen when the price is going sharply in the desired direction. Watching the increasing profits, traders remove a stop loss, being afraid to miss bigger profits.
Both situations may lead to substantial, higher than initially planned losses. Driven by many factors, the market can easily burn all gains and move against the desired direction much longer than traders stay solvent.
For these reasons, never remove a stop loss. It must be always set.
2. Never modify your stop loss if a position is in loss
Watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss is painful. Instead of removing stop loss, some traders move it and give the market more space for reversal.
Even though such a technique is safer than the complete stop loss removal, it is still a very bad habit.
Each stop loss adjustment increases the potential loss, not giving any guarantees that the market will reverse.
It is highly recommendable to keep your stop loss fixed and let the price hit it and admit the loss.
3. Know in advance your profit protection strategy
Where do you take your profit?
Do you have a fixed tp level or do you apply trailing stop?
You should always know the answers.
Coiling around take profit level but not being able to reach it, the price makes many traders manually close the trade or move take profit closer to current price levels.
Another common situation happens when the market so quickly reaches the desired TP level so the traders remove TP hoping to make bigger than initially planned profit.
Such emotional interventions negatively affect a long-term trading performance. TP removal may even burn all profits.
Do not let your greed intervene, and always follow your rules.
4. Never add to a losing position
Watching how the price refuses to go in the intended direction and cutting a partial loss, many traders add to a losing trade in hopes that the market will reverse and all the losses will be recovered.
Again, such a fallacy usually leads to substantial losses.
Remember, you can add to a position only AFTER the market moved in the desired direction, not BEFORE.
5. Close the trades manually only following rules
Quite often, newbie traders manually close their trades because of some random factors:
they saw someone's opposite view, or they simply changed their mind.
Remember, that if you opened a trade following your trading plan, you should always have strict rules for a position manual close. Do not let random factors affect your trading.
Following these 5 simple tips, your trading will improve dramatically. Remember, that it is not enough to spot and accurate entry. Once you are in a trade, you should wisely manage that, following your plan.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Confirm Fundamental Analysis With The Olympus CloudWe used the unfortunate global environment to pinpoint natural gas as a trading opportunity in early 2022. We then used the Olympus Cloud to define entries and exits.
When we are trading on a longer term time frame, such as the daily, and we are confident our fundamental analysis is on point, we will risk up to 4 times more (5-8%) than we do in our high frequency trading (2%).
In these trades, we required the Olympus Cloud to indicate a higher swing low than the previous low combined with a confirmed bull cloud transition -- it's as simple as that. Our stop loss was under the cloud, and our targets were 2R, and 5R respectively.
As you can see in the data section below this post, our commodity account has grown by over 35% YTD, with 12% in additional gains currently open. The trade accuracy was 80% with an astonishing profit factor of over 9 -- meaning we gained 9 times our risk. Of course, if we had gone all in, these trades could have earned up to 80%, but had the trades not worked out we would have taken huge uncontrolled losses. When you are trading with proper risk management, you will not earn as much, but you will keep your profit margins in check and won't suffer massive losses that are hard to recover from if the trade does not go in your favor.
It's Worth to Wait on BitcoinThe market movements in the last few hours in some markets have greatly shaken some traders or investors. For those who see falling prices as an opportunity, it may be necessary to hold back on putting their funds in Bitcoin at this time.
As we can see in the picture, the price is very strong pointing downwards. And it's not final yet. If this month the price closes through the 1st line area, then it is certain that the price will strongly head to the 2nd line area.
It's worth to wait!
Keeping Lot Sizes the SameHey Guys!
Do you find your self increasing and decreasing the lot sizes you trade depending on your trade set up? Or perhaps even doubling down after a previous losing trade? I know I use to! For a number of reasons! The most common being "making up for previous losses". Now I don't completely disagree with different position sizes depending on the trade set up. It definitely has its place in higher levels of trading. When as a seasoned trader, the "revenge trade" temptation is mostly gone.
However as a beginner trader, changing position sizes depending on the trade set up is a bad idea for 2 reasons: #1 It will likely destroy your account unnecessarily. By unnecessarily, I mean you don't have to lose money to learn how to trade. Although you may have to endure losses and persist through adversity in trading, the monetary losses can be small. #2 It deters the beginner trader from their primary focus. No, the primary focus is "not" to make money as a beginner trader. That comes later. The primary focus for the beginner trader is to hone and develop their strategy until the strategy becomes efficient enough to at least reach "relative efficiency". This means month over month, your profit and loss results are at break even.
So when your doubling down on a trade, ask yourself, are you doing it to make money? Or are you doing it to develop your strategy? It's highly likely that you're doing it to make money. Again, you're changing positions sizes for the wrong reasons. So if you're a beginner trader, keep the lot sizes of all your trades the same. Focus and persist on honing and developing your strategy. There's a time and place for everything. When it comes to trading, focusing on making money is only relevant to the trader with an established strategy that's proven to consistently make money in the markets.
Hope this helps!
Have a great day!
Ken
Getting Over the Agony of LossesHey Guys!
When a trader takes a loss, it can be quite hard. It can strip you of your motivation to trade. Or perhaps even sway your quality of life. But that doesn't have to be the case. Do you ever wonder why experienced traders don't have a fit after a loss, whilst beginner traders can go into a chatic godzilla-like tantrum? No, it's not because they're enlightened in some way or simply not prone to anger. It's because they understand what trading is "truly" about.
Trading is simply about refining your strategy and honing it until it is capable of extracting consistent profits from the markets. Moreover they understand that in order to refine a strategy they will have to take losses from time to time. How else will they know if their strategy needs refining or not? Thus the experienced trader views a loss as an opportunity to further refine their strategy and more importantly views these losses as a necessary component to propel their trading to the next level. Now, viewing losses from this perspective, who in their right minds will throw a fit every time they take a loss?
So just some advice to the beginner trader. If you don't have a specific strategy that you're working on and are hopping from strategy to strategy; consider making your own strategy. Of course this can be a mixture of strategies you came across in your trading education, but ultimately the strategy must be constructed with your original signature. This means that you understand the nuts and bolts of the strategy and thus have the ability to refine it when necessary. Once you begin this refinement process, upon a loss and the anger starts to kick in, you'll find that refining your strategy with the lessons learned from the loss will diffuse that anger that erupts inside of you. It will become an antidote that if persisted, will get you on the peaceful road to trading success.
I hope this helps! Have a great day guys!
Ken