TRNX: WATCH THE GAP FILL!!!70% long profit roughly!
Earnings after HRS.
We might fill this gap in after hrs if earning are positive sooooo maybe look for gap fill reversal tomorrow if you miss it.
If earnings seems positive but we don't get into the gap this will be a top watch for tomorrow!
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Tradenoxtreme
BCH June 2019: This could be a wild ride.TraderNoxtreme here,
Well perhaps the time has come. We have reached a SERIOUS indecision point after 2.5 months of upside. The gains have been huge.
Lets be real.
This could really be the top of the new bull market... We expect a lot out of this space. We do not have to go back to ATH no matter how much it seems like they should. The HYPE is fierce in this sector.
BCH does everything BIG.
ATH is actually about 9k if you count the coinbase launch pump.
So we are way way down from that. Lets call it 95%
But BTC hit almost 50% of its ath ...
I'll leave it there.
What does it mean to you?
Let's say this is the top for now and we head back down. Often you get a second smaller bounce after such a giant one.
What is your game plan?
Well.
For me, I will be pretty much all in before we hit the December low. If we continue the bear market beyond that I would be surprised and concerned for the space as a whole.
As a trader I am pulling profit out AND accumulating more on the way down. This is the compounding advantage that traders have over investors.
My plan looks like this. Stopping out in profit positions while buying new positions lower. Also protecting new positions when they go into profit.
Stay calm and follow your plan.
Sorry the price levels are a bit scrunched up. You might need to zoom the chart to see.
Like and Subscribe for sure this time :)
BCH IN DEPTH 5/6/19 - TRADE THE RANGES Hello traders,
TraderNoxtreme back with you weekly Bitcoin Cash in depth. Please like this idea if you agree. Subscribe if you want more.
Sentiment:
Crypto seems to have shaken off the news from last week.
Ill be honest; I took the week off last week from my in depths because the fud was making me doubt what the charts were telling me. It was a mistake to not act on what I was seeing against my emotions because I would have come out with a good profit. I simply could not ignore the news because the underlying issue Tether poses is terrifying to me at its core. Every time I would write that something looked bullish in the chart, fear would blot it out. As traders we are supposed to take note of news and move on but I didn’t feel I could give you an unbiased view.
It seems that the fud screen has pretty much cleared in the chats, youtubes, and other media outlets at this point but for me; Tether is a ticking time bomb in crypto as a whole and I will be keeping close tabs on it.
Why I am concerned?
Although complicated, the news is pretty straight forward. IFinex (the Tether printer attached to Bitfinex) was hit with a legal case by the NY General Attorney saying that they did not disclose an 850 million dollar loss. IFinex says they did but the loss is real. Funds were seized by an offshore bank back in Aug 2018 (I think). In itself this is not all that big a deal but let me explain the base fear (The big deal) behind this. I know there is A LOT more to the Tether, IFinex, NY AG, drama so forgive me if I’m messing up some facts or leaving things out. Put on your tinfoil hat for a second, its story time.
What if a large chunk of the money we have been told is coming into Bitcoin is actually monopoly money? What if an unregulated player in the space (there is no regulation in this space) has been printing fake money and funneling that money into BTC since 2017. Being that BTC has been base pair for most coins in the past this would equate to the entire market being built on stilts. Now, what if it was announced that Tether truly is not backed at all even though IFinex is now saying it is 74% backed (this is a change from the previous 100%). Honestly, this will scare a lot of money out of the space IMO. The market could brush a reality like this off but I am not wanting to bet on it.
I think it is very unlikely we will get an announcement that Tether is not backed any time soon if ever but this, to me, is a major danger in the space in general. Exchanges might simply be running crypto prices up for their own gains. As we see more and more stable coins hit the markets the chances get higher and higher that one of them could simply be monopoly money.
Comment below on this.
Lets move on:
BCH Weekly: Seems Crazy
When you consider that this could be a giant bull flag; the targets seem kind of crazy. If we confirmed this bull flag, we would be looking in the mid to upper 400s. Lets call it 444 for my chart. BCH does have a tendency to got extreme though so 500s or even 600 seems in the realm of possibility. Our RSI is sitting nice at 49 breaking through some old resistance. MacD is firmly in a bullish uptrend even with our pullback. 13 and 26 EMA are now providing support again. I’ve been feeling this way for a while but this is continuing to look very bullish IMO. I think the drama is really holding this one back.
The 50 MA could stop us short of my upside breakout target.
BCH 1D: Play the ranges
BCH requires constant attention to trade IMO because it can pivot very quickly from bullish to bearish and visa versa but I am finding a lot of value for my time in it. On the daily we currently have a golden cross on the 29th and we are testing what seems to be a midpoint for our price action over the last 5 weeks roughly. We have a downward sloping resistance that has been tested 3 times with sharp rejections. RSI at 58 and a MacD threatening a bull cross. I see us potentially testing back up to our sloping resistance and then rejecting back down to 261 or 254 as we have the 50MA coming up to meet that price support. Assuming this is the action we see a short at 300 looks quite appealing because we have psychological resistance, the downward sloping resistance, historical price resistance, and larger ranges to drop through then if we wait for a pullback and a bullish trade. This being said, a break of 300 could be a major trigger for buyers and we know that this one can RUN or DUMP so personally I would rather play it from the bullish side to limit that upside risk as I am expecting this in the 4 to 600 range on our next breakout. Call me crazy if you want but this is what I see in the charts. It feels a bit crazy honestly.
But wait, we need to keep an eye on the channel that our 200MA swooped in and started making. See the red descending bottom support. Bears are smelling this.
We also have a support line from the initial start of this mid term bull trend. We have the same thing happening with LTC and I would assume we would see it on others as well.
A lot to be aware of here.
BCH 4hr: Good Dip Buying!
Again, TRADE THE RANGES ON BCH. On the 4hr we see that there is a solid dip buying pattern currently. I will be looking to snag a fill next time we break down through a range. It’s a risky play but we can see that we usually bounce back into the range above (where we dropped from) or better. If you get your entry right these are profitable trades especially if you use leverage…
We just gained the 200MA as support. RSI a bit higher at 57. MacD looking unsure but currently bearish. Increasing bull volume will probably push us up to test the top descending resistance. Short play would be even more interesting if that 4hr RSI hits oversold too even though this is unlikely.
BCH 1 hr: Best Clarity
The 1-hour chart gives me the best clarity for BCH. You can see we have a solid resistance range over 289 (blue box) and good dip buying potential below. Those V bottom drops are a good indication that bulls are accumulating on the dips. We have the 50MA, 12EMA, 26EMA all squeezing together. I believe we get one more dip buy opportunity in the near future but BCH is looking quite bullish to me overall. That does not mean much though so stay focused and trade the ranges.
Closing Note:
BCH is fantastic for practicing risk management but its quite unpredictable. I find it best keep it pretty simple and just trade the ranges based on loss/win size. Dip buying is also quite profitable but high risk.
Hopefully you enjoyed this week’s analysis. If you found it helpful, give it a LIKE, if you want more, SUBSCRIBE. If you want to team up please comment below or PM me.
BCH In Depth 4/15/19: Clean Bull Flag but so Much DramaTrader Noxtreme back with your weekly in depth analysis of BCH. Please keep in mind that I am a full time trader but not a professional investment adviser so you should do your own research on this very risky market and then come share what you learn with us. My goal is to build a community of TA based traders so if you find these analyses helpful or if you just want to support the dream please LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE.
All that being said let’s get into BCH for the week for April 15th 2019.
Sentiment:
Bitcoin Cash is the coin that a lot of people love to hate. There are two main reasons for this: 1. It is a contentious hard for off Bitcoin. 2. Roger Ver.
I will stay out of the crazy messy arguments surrounding these judgment calls. Feel free to comment your opinions below as I am willing to engage in constructive discussion.
We now also have the breaking BCHSV delisting from Binanace because of Crag’s behavior. Although Craig Wright is no longer associated with BCHABC directly I am almost sure the less educated masses will associate him. At the moment it appears that people may be exiting BSV and putting that into BCH. Moving on.
BCH In Depth Weekly: Bulls appear strong, but why?
On our weekly we have still have a large bull flag. Confirmation of the bull flag conveniently lines up to break the top of the gap from the BCHSV hard fork. Confirmation of this bull flag would be 41.4% to the upside but we have some pretty strong overhead resistance that has formed between 335 and 320 (16.4% above our current price). If bears take charge on the weekly or we simply fall down a range we have weaker support at 254 to 232 which is 18.8% to the downside. Last week I was looking for an entry at 243 which missed by a few dollars but that could have been a +30% trade. Bummer.
In any case, RSI sitting at 50 is (neutral) and MacD is showing us gaining bullish momentum even with the extreme volatility we have seen. It is worth noting that we have a higher RSI on the weekly then we have ever had on the coinbase 1 week chart.
It seems like we will get a cross of the 12 and 26 moving averages in the next week or two and we have the 50MA coming down to meet the top of our bull flag confirmation if that happens. Everything considered I am leaning towards a bull flag confirmation because the odds favor it and we have less resistance to break then support. BUT time is on the bears side. They have had control of this until recently since December of 2017. I have a feeling the lower time frames will indicate tightening range though this week.
I also have to add a speculation statement here because it seems obvious to me. I believe people are selling their SV and going into BCH which is currently propping the price up a little.
BCH In Depth Daily: Tightening range Looking for the MA squeeze
As expected we see a tightening range on the daily inside an ascending triangle. Ascending triangles are often referred to as continuation patterns so we have we are still stacking the technical odds in favor of a bull flag confirmation. We still have PLENTY of room in the triangle though. RSI is on the high side at 67 and MacD is actually showing us that we need to slow down a bit. We have the 200MA sitting right at the 243 entry I wanted last week adding to that support. We had the 12 MA cross the 200 and the 26 MA is looking to cross it shortly is appears. Both bullish signals but look for all three of these to squeeze together. I believe this is when we will see out next definitive move.
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. 12,26,50,200 MA may all squeeze together on the daily in the next 1-3 weeks signaling a major move is about to take place.
BCH In Depth 4hr: Possibly a trade opportunity
Honestly not seeing anything here that we have not already talked about. I will mention again that the RSI seems to like to hang around the 43 level on BCH 4 hour. We are sitting at 60. $287 might be a good entry for a short term bullish trade if RSI is around 43 at that point. It’s a strong resistance and support line but we have the bottom of our triangle to hopefully keep us from dropping lower. We also have the 200ma to support at 243 on the 4 hr. Might be a lower risk bullish trade in the next few hours.
BCH In Depth Daily: Large enough range for a quick trade.
RSI 60 and BCH seem to like 41 on the 1hr. Double top favoring a break up. We had equilibrium after the big run up then a bear break but we held support well and pushed back up into our tightening range level. If we pull back again and hold above 287 I will likely be looking for to take some small positions in anticipation of a new lower high being set as our current range from 287 to 335 is pretty large at 15+%. We shal see.
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LTC In Depth Week of 4/15/19: Fade from red back to blackTrader Noxtreme back with your weekly LTC in depth analysis. Please keep in mind that I am a full time trader but not a professional investment adviser so you should do your own research on this very risky market and then come share what you learn with us. My goal is to build a community of TA based traders so if you find these analyses helpful or if you just want to support the dream please LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE.
All that being said let’s get into LTC for the week for April 15th 2019.
Sentiment:
LTC In Depth: Will the Halving Cause LTC to Moon?
LTC has a ton of positive hype out there right now for all sorts of reasons right now. The main one that I see as relevant for LTC specifically is the block mining reward halving. This is a scheduled event not speculation and in the past there has been positive price correlation for BTC when this happened. This is currently set to happen August 6th of 2019. To me it would make sense that price would increase assuming demand stays constant. There are less coins being put into circulation and potentially less coins being sold into the open market by miners. We have just entered the Fiscal quarter before the quarter where the halving will take place. Based on the fact we have seen a 53% increase in LTC worth compared to BTC over the last 11 weeks I would argue that we are already seeing the gains associated with this event. The ATH LTC/BTC is .025 and we hit .018 on the third. So we are gaining more and loosing less then BTC in this coin. Not an opinion but a fact. This being said we have fallen back 20% from our April 3rd peak and we are trying to maintain support right on top of the range we broke out from. I believe this is a good indication that the market is not sure if this event should really cause LTC gain ground on the market as a whole or the hype surrounding this even is already priced in for the mot part. I would like to point out that we have a near perfect GIANT cup and handle pattern for the daily LTC/BTC chart for coinbase. Something like this is typically a bullish pattern and one this large would be major if it confirms.
LTC In Depth: History be my guide.
For my weekly I am going to stick with comparing our 2017 run start. History appears to rhyme here. We did finish red as I thought we would in my last analysis and now I see another red week (potentially one more after our current week) ahead. RSI is currently still highish on the weekly at 61. MacD, while bullish looks like it is ready take a breather on the center line. One thing is for sure; if we break 74.85 we will likely fall fast, at least temporarily because bears are looking at that level and there is probably a lot of stops to trigger there. We have our 12MA coming up to cross our 50 bullish but our 100 sitting right below $90 to act as resistance. Also those trend lines (yellow arrows) are copy pasted so you can see our drop is less extreme then what we saw in 17 as I thought it would be in my last analysis.
LTC In Depth: I don't think today is the day.
I am simplifying my charts a bit to make them more clear at a glance please let me know if I need to go more simple. What we see is a bull flag that tested the top of our previous bullish channel and it held. This is a solid bullish indication but the retrace off the top of that bull flag was a pretty brutal dip buy trade opportunity which I took. Currently we are sitting at one of two supports left before we fall back into our previous bullish channel. If we fall back into this channel we could see 65 again which would likely make the bears get pretty loud in the space BUT this would also get our daily and weekly RSI back down into potential buy zones so it is a win win if you are in cash. Where we sit currently is a price lower then we want to see for this to still be a bull flag, an RSI that is higher than average but neutral at 54, a bearish MacD cross and a current daily candle wick that has already broken the two supports keeping us from going back into our previous bullish channel. Odds are currently favoring a retest of levels in our old channel between 70-65 so entering bullish here is quite risky IMO unless you are going for a quick flip. Lets see what the 4 hr hold.
LTC In Depth 4hr: Bears are nipping at the bulls heals.
The 4 hr has me weary of the bear because they are nipping at our heals. The RSI sitting at 43 after bouncing off 30. We held our last resistance before going back into the channel (wicked below resistance to the channel boarder twice). MacD appears to be rejecting the bear cross but we need another candle or two to make the determination here. Like I said we have a very high risk entry opportunity here for bulls which I will not be taking unless the hourly is showing oversold and even then there is more risk than reward because there is more resistance then support in our close ranges. We also have the 12 and 26 MA to break through which I speculate will reject the current green candle based on the volume we are seeing. Not looking good here for the bulls but I would be opening shorts here if I could looking for the drop back into the channel.
LTC In Depth 1hr: Prove it bulls!
RSI at 41. If we are not able to hold our weak 77.59 support we will likely fall back into the channel. Bulls have to prove to us that they are still in control. I will be looking for an upper 60s entry for a bounce because it seems like the best short term trade and those could become solid long positions.
Conclusion
In the short term I will be looking for an oversold bounce play if we drop back into the channel and I will dump the two coins I have at break even if I get the opportunity. Stepping back we likely WILL need to break back into our previous bull channel to get our next weekly red candle but I am thinking we could see a LARGE bounce in this week since 74.85 will accelerate us down once we enter the previous bull channel. We could drop all the way to the upper 60s and then come back to the upper 70s which would be a nice long position moving into next week assuming we get our bounce and form a higher low in the channel. We have big price ranges right below our current price but limited upside. Looking for entry targets at 70.48, 69.60 (200 ma) and near the bottom of our previous channel.
LTC in Depth Technical Analysis and trade journal. Week of 4/8/1Trader Noxtreme back, hitting the reset button as we start a new weekly candle. I am finding a journal approach helpful for my published ideas so if you are finding it helpful also or if you want to join in PLEASE LIKE, SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT. We are here to learn and grow as traders so do a good thing and share your strategies and ideas with us.
So let’s jump into it.
New weekly candles start on Monday (if you are in the US) so it seems fitting that Monday should be our in depth day.
So here we are and let’s get into it.
LTC
On the WEEKLY I am comparing this move to the initial move that started the 2017 run. The similarities are notable but so are the differences. RSI was coming DOWN in 2017 but it was still higher at 86. We were just slightly oversold at 71 at this last peak. Seems likely we will pull back but maybe not near as far as we did in 17 because we are not as oversold. 75-60 looks reasonable in the next two weeks but as we will see when we zoom in to shorter term time frames, getting this low would be indication of the trend turning back in the bearish direction.
On the LTC daily we have overbought 76 RSI and what looks to be a downward sloping resistance. The moving averages are diverging quickly. We are still solidly in an uptrend for the 12, 26, 50 MA and the 200 is just starting to curve up. This is a very good sign that we are changing the trend from bearish to bullish long term but odds are in favor of consolidation before we make another move up. The pattern on the chart could be a HUGE bull flag descending triangle but RSI, historical trends, previous price action in this range and how far we ran up all point to a pull back in the near term. The only things I see that could break this pattern bullish in the near term are market sentiment and news (these are positive forces right now). We can also see that the 4 hr and 1 hr charts will be tightening range equilibriums by looking at the pattern on the daily. Two last things stand out to me on the daily; declining volume and lack of support but increasing resistance near the 100 mark. 100 in getting harder to break.
I am left with these conclusions: likely downward pressure for the next few days to bring the longer term RSIs back into range where we can run again. Shorter term time frames should give us clues as to direction and timing that this equilibrium will break.
Jumping into the 4hr we see what appears to be an ascending triangle bull flag with a base of support between 80.91 and 77.59. Being that our RSI is at 52 we could test this area but it would be a red flag if it breaks because we would lose the 12, 26, and 50 MA and break the bottom of our triangle bearish. The two most notable things here are that our new overhead resistance trend line meets our previous ascending channel resistance line at 77.59. This tells me that this area should be the lowest point to consider ourselves still in equilibrium. Volume is going to be our lead indicator as to where we go next on this chart. RSI under 35 on the 4 hr would be a buy signal for me as it has held as support for nearly the entire uptrend starting Feb 19 2019
Finally our hourly for all the traders out there. We are clearly trying to hold the support of this equilibrium at 87.04 but we have tested this 5times and broke it 3 times definitely if you ignore the initial volatility within about 12 hours of the initial peak. Our RSI is pushing oversold and there is a strong case for accumulation between 35 and 30 rsi as we have held 30 RSI on the hourly since March 21st. Unless there is some kind of bad news I don’t expect us to break this trend as we consolidate in this triangle. Volume is nonexistent and wicks have gotten very short. MacD is curling up to try and go short term bullish again but it seems likely we will bounce off the 26 MA and move into the next range down at 84.19 to 87.04 (green box). Support under this is WEAK so my gut is telling me that we will wick into the yellow box range of 77.59 to 80.91 bouncing the RSI off 30 when we do but this may not be for a few days as we have plenty of room left under our sloping resistance.
I will be focusing on volume and RSI over the next few days. 35 or less on the 1 hr RSI will have me looking for a short term entry. Pushing down to 78-77.50 would have me considering long positions if we don’t have some crazy bad news catalyst.
That’s my story and I’m going to try and stick to it better this time. I over traded last week for sure leading to small unnecessary losses.
PLEASE LIKE SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT if this helps you out or you have something you see that I missed.
What a week. Time to regroup. LTC April 2019LTC April 2019. Great week! Now what. Trader Noxtreme overview.
So you will rarely hear traders with larger follower groups (which I am not) talk real dollars, and who knows, maybe I’ll learn why, but basically I made about 570 on about 1200 investment. 46% Not bad right? Now let’s rinse and repeat.
If you are a trader you should be in cash while the price drops. If your not and you prefer the investor Hodl approach. Good luck to you sir. Fooled me once ;) shame on you. I will not be fooled again. Crypto is not the stock market and this asset class is too volatile to just let money ride. You can get thousands of percent in a bull market trading or holding but the trader can make good gains or loose very little on the way down while an investor might have just realized up to a 95% loss (assuming you bought the very top and sold the very bottom). Moving on.
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I welcome any comments and opinions if you have any.
I am back to all cash.
I made great gains on BCH and LTC.
I will catch the next wave when it comes.
So where are we.
Bull:
Looks like a very steep ascending channel or a GIANT bull flag on the 4 hr if you ignore that one huge red wick. Honestly it’s a strange formation but both possibilities are bullish so exactly what it is might be irrelevant.
If we take a peek at the 1 hr you see we are in a downtrend and RSI is almost oversold so it looks like bear short term bull in the near future.
Back on the 4 HR we have HUGE volume coming in. There is an interesting repeating time cycle pattern in the volume… Not putting a lot of weight on this for analysis purposes but it’s worth noticing that buy/sell spikes are about 19hrs apart. Plus or minus 3 hrs. These spikes lead to really quick, violent moves.
Got to mention sentiment for bulls. WOW are the moon boys out in force. Everyone running around “this is different and bigger; we are potentially looking at million dollar BTC” when it was, “20k by 2021” just a week or so ago. Google search trend data just went gangbusters for all crypto search terms. It is like a sleeping bull giant awoke, impaled the bear and now all the bullish speculators are dancing around a camp fire chanting "we killed the bear." If the festivities continue we will see the euphoric "this is changing the world" multi day music festival type come out with their revolution talk. I'm just people watching and not in either camp but the similarities in market sentiment to the 2017 run up are notable.
Bear:
Back to the 4 hr, RSI is on the high side. ON A STEEP downward slope
Mac D bear cross of 12 and 26 averages. Not surprising since we ran so far so fast and now we need to consolidate but it needs more time to come back to a bullish cross. The bull cross could be a first good entry point for a partial position.
HUGE divergence on the moving averages on the 4 hr. It’s hard to call this bearish because this would also be my main case for saying this is the start of a prolonged bull trend. Keep in mind we have not seen action like this in over 15 months now so this does "feel" bullish BUT we need to take "feel" out of this and recognize this is the FIRST large, quick move up in 15 months. It could be a giant BULL TRAP! Let’s not forget this move took 2 days and the best explanation I can find about why it happened is “Some rich dude bought 100 million dollars worth on the open market!" Cool… so then is he going to hodl that, orrrr.
SO let’s step back.
This is why we trade successfully...... sometimes.
We have two classes of buyers right now.
1. “I missed the run, I need in NOW.” Also keep in mind it takes about a week to transfer USD into an exchange unless you buy with a credit card, but that carries a fee. Building the case we might see a few more days of down since USD transfers might not clear till mid next week if people are bringing new money in.
2. People like me that just made a solid gain and now are watching it drop. We want the most pullbacks possible while remaining healthy in an uptrend. So we went up 65% in this move so 21% pull back would be a 1/3rd. So buying around the 76-73 area is reasonable. Stop should be tight and FULL STOP 70.48.
Lets face it… Unless we get someone to buy 100 million in crypto again and they have the money on an exchange already were going down for now at least because people are taking profits after that big move.
Let me quickly make a case for WHY this could be the beginning of a longer term uptrend.
What we see is 3 strong bull candles on the monthly. The third just started. In any case, the last time we had 3 bull months was leading into the massive bull spike of 17. Volume was notably higher on those candles though. What I see is RSI and MacD that are right at the edge of turning bullish bias strictly based on slope. Assuming we do continue up, these lines will get steeper up and then the trend becomes harder to break which is what you want if you are longing or trading bullish.
What am I doing?
I am not eager to go in aggressively because this has been a bear market for 15 months so there is still significant downside potential. We are less than a week into that third green candle on the monthly and odds are against this candle closing green so I’ll consider half my account tradeable as I scale in on the bigger drops (using the 1 hr or 15 min time frames). I don’t want to get stuck all in now if we are going to go all the way back to the low 40s. We were in the low 40s 5 weeks ago so this is totally possible.
Good time for scalping
Lots of people are scared and taking losses at the bottoms of dips on the shorter term time frames. This is pushing the price LOWER then most would expect based on simple support resistance studies and creating good bounce trades from the lows. Looking for oversold RSI on the 15min and 1hr charts.
You can see these scalp/bounce trades in how huge some of the 4 hour wicks are. I mean one of them is 14% which is a CRAZY loss to sit through or a great bounce to catch.
The current weekly candle has a 16% wick on the top right now. That is very tradeable volatility but also very easy to take a BIG hit on if you fomo in. Get a good entry and/or hold steady if you are confident in your TA.
I will be scalping the bottom of drops on the 1 hr. I am anticipating the price to wick down out of out ascending channel (seen on 4hr and 1hr) but resume the channel with HIGH volatility. Once we see the wicks start to shorten on the longer term time frames I will consider entering more aggressively for the next leg up.
LTC rejected from 100. We were right there. Breaking 100 definitively will absolutely be a, bot trigger, psychological trigger, and a emotional trigger. You will want to have at least some kind of position when that happens I think. Also the having of mining rewards is in 123 days. I speculate this is why LTC is running harder then BTC but I am trying not to let this fact influence my decisions.
That is my story and I'm sticking to it.
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NOT INVESTMENT ADVISE! Do your own research and tell me about it. :)