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EUR/USD Daily Outlook: All Eyes on the FOMC Meeting MinutesDaily EURUSD Outlook FUNDAMENTALS: The weaker-than-expected ISM Services PMI was one of the reasons the market entered a risk-off mode and pushed the USD higher yesterday. EUR remains at the mercy of USD drivers given the lack of domestic drivers in the eurozone. Today's main event is the FOMC meeting minutes. Markets lack a reason to turn bearish on USD just now, with the FOMC report (today at 18:00 UTC) likely to lead to further bullishness in the currency. However, one concern could be that the Fed could push a rate hike despite an uneven recovery in the US economy. Upcoming US market reports will therefore be especially important for the currency. Latest Headlines: USD News: US Dollar Index clings to gains in the mid-92.00s, looks to FOMC US dollar at the mercy of the market's take on FOMC minutes US 10-year Treasury yields refresh 19-week low US urges China, private sector to boost participation in G20 debt response Biden closely watching the OPEC+ negotiations EUR News: Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (1.1%) in May Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) below forecasts (20.4%) in May: Actual (13.3%) EUR/USD to plummet towards yearly lows at 1.1704 on a break below 1.18 – OCBC France May trade balance -€6.80 billion vs -€6.24 billion prior France Imports, EUR: €46.162B (May) vs previous €46.85B Upcoming Market Reports: Here are the most important market reports for EUR/USD to follow in the coming days (all times are UTC timezone): Wednesday at 14:00: USD JOLTS Job Openings (Expected: 9.30M , Previous: 9.29M ) Wednesday at 18:00: USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (Expected: , Previous: ) Thursday at 12:30: USD Unemployment Claims (Expected: 345K , Previous: 364K ) Thursday at 15:00: USD Crude Oil Inventories (Expected: , Previous: -6.7M ) Friday at 10:00: EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks (Expected: , Previous: ) SENTIMENT: Currency Strength Index: Both EUR and USD are mostly moving sideways against other major currencies as markets are focused on today's FOMC minutes. Risk Sentiment: After yesterday's sharp sell-off in risk currencies, risk sentiment could remain fragile today on the outcome of the OPEC meeting, China's crack-down on tech companies, and the FOMC minutes. Any shift towards risk-off could push the EURUSD pair lower towards 1.17. TECHNICALS EURUSD trades in a narrow range this morning after a strong sell-off yesterday. The 1.18 round-number support (double bottom) seems to hold at the moment, but the absence of a decisive move above the 1.1830 suggests sellers remain in control. Very indecisive candlesticks on the 1-hour chart could lead to a surge in volatility once we get a fundamental driver. The price-action remains bearish, and the current consolidation could rather point at further weakness in the pair. Levels to follow (Liquidity): Major resistance: 1.1900 Minor resistance: 1.1830 Major support: 1.1800 == SUMMARY == A push below the 1.18 mark will likely attract further sellers and pave the road towards 1.17. In the meantime, there is nothing to do in the pair. Please hit the 'LIKE' button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
Short
by MujkanovicFX
EUR/USD Daily Outlook: ZEW Report and Yields Attract Sellers 📉Hi traders, here is the daily FIST outlook for EUR/USD. FUNDAMENTALS: EUR/USD faced strong selling pressure with the opening of the London session as the US dollar recovered some ground. The 2-year yield rebounded (as mentioned in earlier posts, markets will likely continue to price-in a 2022 rate hike), which supported the greenback this morning. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which came in significantly lower than expected (63.3 vs 75.0), along with the Sentix sentiment on Monday, pushed the pair further down. Tomorrow's FOMC Meeting Minutes will be a key event for the direction of EURUSD for the rest of the week. EU Economic Forecasts (tomorrow at 9:00 UTC) could also add some volatility to the pair. Latest Headlines: USD News: US Dollar Index remains under pressure, approaches 92.00 US Dollar Index: DXY bears shrug off mildly bid Treasury yields ahead of ISM PMI US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Next on the downside is located 92.00 EUR News: ECB's de Guindos sees ‘intense' economic rebound in 2H 2021 Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment came in at 63.3 below forecasts (75.2) in July Germany July ZEW survey current conditions 21.9 vs -9.1 prior Germany June construction PMI 47.0 vs 44.5 prior Upcoming Market Reports: Here are the most important market reports for EUR/USD to follow in the coming days (all times are UTC timezone): Tuesday at 14:00: USD ISM Services PMI (Expected: 63.9 , Previous: 64.0 ) Wednesday at 09:00: EUR EU Economic Forecasts Wednesday at 14:00: USD JOLTS Job Openings (Expected: 9.34M , Previous: 9.29M ) Wednesday at 18:00: USD FOMC Meeting Minutes Thursday at 12:30: USD Unemployment Claims (Expected: 375K , Previous: 364K ) Thursday at 15:00: USD Crude Oil Inventories (Previous: -6.7M ) Friday at 10:00: EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks INTERMARKET: 2-year German/US yield differentials don't provide many clues at the moment, but it could be good to note that German yields fell this morning, while US yields rose. The momentum argues for further weakness in the pair in any case. SENTIMENT: CoT: The net positioning in EUR among leveraged money remains bearish , although this category of traders reduced their bearish bets in the previous week. USD positioning (as measured by the value of total contracts) is less bearish after the Fed adopted their hawkish stance, although the majority of traders are still short on the currency. Watch out for a short-squeeze here. Positioning is bearish for EUR/USD. Currency Strength Index: EUR is the weakest for the day so far, while USD recovered significantly with the rise in UST yields and ahead of the US Services PMI numbers. With the mixed labor market report from Friday, all eyes will be on the PMI today as markets scrutinize the US economic recovery. TECHNICALS Technicals are clearly bearish for the pair on the intraday chart. The fake breakout above 1.1880 followed by a strong down-move, accompanied by higher volume, could signal further weakness during the day. On the daily chart, today's bearish outside bar also argues for further downside potential. Levels to follow (Liquidity): Major resistance: 1.1974 Minor resistance: 1.1890 (day's high) Major support: 1.1800 (round-number near 3-month lows) == SUMMARY == Technicals, market reports and bonds argue for further downside potential in the pair. Watch out for today's US PMI, as it can add significantly volatility in both directions. Please hit the 'LIKE' button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
Short
by MujkanovicFX
EBAY - 14.18% Potential ProfitGood risk / reward ratio on this trade. Ascending Triangle breakout. Betting on momentum to keep going past the news release of eBay releasing Bag Autenthicating service that could help the marketplace to tap into the second-hand luxury industry. - Target Entry: $65.51 - Target Stop Loss: $63.81 - Target Exit: $75.08 - Risk / Reward Ratio: 5.63 About me - Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss - When I see that the market is opening too high/low, I wait for 30 min from the opening bell before placing my order. This is to avoid that initial spikes / drops get me into a position and get me out right after.
NASDAQ:EBAYLong
by maschera
2
CZR - 15.13% Profit Potential Swing Trade Setup - TriangleAscending Triangle formed after a bull run. Tight Stop Loss - risky price action. - Target Entry: $105.20 - Target Stop Loss: $103.44 - Target Exit: $123.55 - Risk / Reward Ratio: 10.43 About me - Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss
NASDAQ:CZRLong
by maschera
XAUUSD buy the dip❓XAUUSD is right now at a pretty important support zone, price has bounced from this price level numerous times since the start of the bull run in late November 2020. We have a few solid reasons to be long! (This is our trade of the day!) 1. The middle of the 45 Donchain Channel has acted a s a support since the last strong bull push, after the bear rejection on the 17th of Jan 2. RSI 5 is really low, and when RSI meets the fibs we expect the bulls to be near! 3. We're getting pretty close to the bottom of the range, but we're not there yet... thus we are ready to buy at 38.2% again if price reaches that level. That's all we have for you for now. 👋 On the other side, we expect Indices to push up during this NYC trading session! Good luck trading and see you again soon!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PrimedGroup
3
Trade of the Day: GBP/JPYHello traders, as reports show that a trade deal between the UK and the EU becomes increasingly unlikely, our trade of the day is a short in GBP/JPY. FUNDAMENTALS Trade deal weighs on the British pound and the JPY has been overall a good performer overnight on slight risk-off flows (Nikkei 225 down.) The pound was the worst performer as investors and traders reduce their exposure to the currency ahead of the trade deal deadline. I expect selling pressure on the pound to persist throughout the day. POSITIONING Leveraged funds (smart money) remain net sellers of the pound without extreme positioning, signaling further downside potential in the currency. TECHNICALS The GBP/JPY pair is breaking below a major trendline where I opened my first short position. A second short would be initiated at the liqudity zone marked in the chart, in case the pound decides to form a pullback. Profit target: Mid 137.xx RISKS FOR THE TRADE Positive trade deal headlines or a return of risk-on in the markets, which could lead to weakness in the JPY. Trade safe and please hit the "LIKE" button if you find our posts useful!
Short
by MujkanovicFX
DON'T BUY ETHEREUM NOW!!Drop a like if this helps you out, its free! :) Here are some reasons why buying ETH right now is a bad idea 1: Everyone is being overly bullish right at a major resistance 2: There is hidden bearish divergence being formed on the daily 3: Declining volume suggest that we haven't yet broken any ranges and so we are not yet clear for a uptrend 4: Global funding is relatively high If you do want to buy ETH rather wait for a close above $390 and a large spike in volume
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by BitcornBen
3
POTENTIAL DESCENDING TRIANGLE ON ETHEREUM?! (7.22% gain)Drop a like if this helps you out, its free! :) Trade Idea 1: Descending triangle on Ethereum meaning easy short, this idea is easily invalidated with any move above the previous local high at $388 so you can put your stop above there. Trade Idea 2: This is for the more conservative trades. Wait for $377 support to break and then short it down to $356. The reason why I will probably take this trade is because the the 4H 200 EMA and 89 EMA and the 2H 200 EMA and 89 EMA is all at $377 making it a strong support. I want this to break down and then short for a higher probability of working out Reasons for trade: 1: descending triangle 2: breaking of major support level 3: losing 200 and 89 EMA on 4H and 2H Trade confidence: for trade 1 - 6/10 for trade 2 - 9/10 RR: Trade 1 - 5.57 Trade 2 - 4.06
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by BitcornBen
4
SQUEEZED SELLERS - THE TRADE OF THE DAY - GC - 15MNThe easiest trade to take today on the Gold Future - GC. After a long drop during Asian session and European one, the American session wakes up involving huge volumes with initially a strong acceleration of the drop in price to later trace the perfect signal of a possible very profitable long entry. As the sellers has been squeezed, it is later on the buyers who have been squeezed, showing the perfect signal for an exit point. A long trade but still a day trade. The trade of the day!
COMEX:GC1!
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
2
AMZN - 11.34% Profit Potential - Ascending TriangleAscending Triangle formed into an Uptrend Corridor and new support confirmed multiple times in the past 3 days. Target price set at resistance line bounce. - Historical Uptrend - RSI and STOCH well above 50 - MACD well above Signal Suggested Entry $3275.86 Suggested Stop Loss $3202.77 Target price $3647.41 Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by maschera
NVDA - 8.32% Potential Profit - Resistance BreakoutBe mindful of earnings on the 19th of August. Uptrend resistance breakout. There could be a short term pullback, but overall price is looking to establish a new uptrend corridor. Target price set at a new potential resistance line from February's high. - 5-month uptrend - RSI and STOCH well above 50 - MACD well above Signal Suggested Entry $475.83 Suggested Stop Loss $467.83 Target price $515.40 Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by maschera
HPQ - 11.66% Potential Profit - Ascending TriangleUptrend Support with an Ascending Triangle forming within an uptrend corridor. Target price set at the 4th confirmation of the resistance line. - 4-month uptrend - RSI and STOCH above 50 - MACD above Signal Suggested Entry $18.84 Suggested Stop Loss $18.28 Target price $21.04 Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
NYSE:HPQLong
by maschera
BIDU - 14.71% Potential Profit - Bullish PennantUptrend Support with a Bullish Pennant forming and price breakout. Target price set at a new potential resistance line. - 5-month uptrend - RSI and STOCH above 50 - MACD above Signal Suggested Entry $127.52 Suggested Stop Loss $124.15 Target price $146.29 Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
NASDAQ:BIDULong
by maschera
BABA - 9.19% Potential Profit - Bullish Rectangle BreakoutClear uptrend Support with a Bullish Rectangle formed within. Target price set at a new potential resistance line. - Historical uptrend - RSI + Stoch well above 50 - MACD above Signal. Suggested Entry $266.78 Suggested Stop Loss $259.47 Target price $290.81 Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital . This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
NYSE:BABALong
by maschera
6