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BTC still bearish 4hr, What I'm watching for bottom indication!BTC is still in a 4hr downtrend as you can see on the chart displayed so no bullish entries can be considered by myself until a break of the 4hr high of $10,658 occurs. Until this happens I will remain bearish, but still cautious to the several indicators pointing out that a potential bottom is close. Things to look out for are as follows: 1- RSI is approaching oversold conditions. - if we were to reach oversold conditions we would see price action most likely around the 200EMA or macro trend line support zone further giving the likelihood of an oversold bounce strength. 2 - Declining volume on each leg down - as you can see on the chart, we are witnessing less bear volume on each LH,LL formation. This could be indicating that bears are slowly losing momentum which will not favour them if we approach oversold RSI conditions with 200EMA and trend line support. 3- Daily uptrend still in tact - Until $8,940 is lost, we are still in a daily uptrend What am I watching for next: The main two things that I will be keeping my eye on in the short term are price action and volume . An increase in bull volume with a break of the 4hr downtrend would create a bullish environment in my opinion and I will start positioning myself back into the market upon this occurring. I hope that this chart has given a few of you a good idea of what I am looking at and possibly some good trade plans to use upon certain breakouts if they occur.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by CryptOReilly
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 3CBACK TESTING CONT.: High probability set-ups To be a consistently good trader, you must trade in a consistent manner. As those of you who follow me and review my trade idea’s know, they are the same, almost boring. You see Type 1 (Shown above) or Type 2 trades all the time and they look all the same. EXACTLY!!! That is what you need. If you have taken (either live or back tested), and documented, the same set-up numerous times, you can develop a statistical basis for the probability of that trade type’s success. IMHO, this is a critical element to achieving long term Success. I believe, if you know statistically, the probability of a trades success then you will be more confident in it and allow it to play out. Moreover, if you have a method that is not quite up to snuff, then get rid of it. I would urge you to be more selective in your trade process and only look for trades that you know, through your back-testing, have a high probability of success. This is Quality over quantity. Stay green my Friends Allen ** The Above chart is an example of how I document my trades-- every trade. I also use a spreadsheet to keep track of the data.
Education
by AGold54
32
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 3BBACK TESTING CONT.: Picking up from my last Educational post, Segment A... Pip Potential (PP) is a key component for me as it allows me to statistically determine how far a trade will run. In all my trades, I want, at the very least, a 3-1 risk to reward ratio (RRR). Basically I want to make $3 for every $1 I risk. Please understand and, this is very important to long term success, if you use a 3-1 RRR, or better, you can have a win rate of approximately 35% and still be profitable. YES, only 35% and still be Profitable!!! That is how you stack the odds in your favor :) Determining how far a trade is likely to run can be done a number of ways, you can use the daily ATR, pivot points, support/resistance or, as I do statistically. Any way you do it, you NEED to do it. Unfortunately, I know several traders who get into trades without thinking about where they are going to get out and that is problematic in the long term. (I always reference the long term because that is where you need to focus on, not 1 trade but rather 100 or 1000 or 10K trades...that is how your trading success will be determined). All off the above can be revealed through back testing :) If you think about your maximum draw down you can determine your stoploss, similarly, if you determine how far a trade will, probably, run you can determine your profit target. Combine the 2 and you have your Risk to reward ratio (RRR) and from that you can determine, if you should even take the trade. Personally, I never, ever, buy into resistance or sell into support. it may turn out to be a great trade but for me the Risk outweighs the reward. I hope this helps and please comment and ask questions or even make suggestions as to a topic you would like me to address. In my next post, I will cover how to determine High probability set-ups. Allen
by AGold54
8
How to be a Succesful Forex Trader Segemnt 3ABACK TESTING: Some traders find it helpful other do not. Back-testing is, imho, the most critical part of trading Back-testing the proper way, although arduous, provides incredibly valuable data. It is the Ditch digging of trading but well worth it. I have come to embrace back testing and reviewing my trades religiously and in this day and age of automation, I have found it best, for me at least, to go back to 2am est (when I start trading and scroll forward bar by bar looking for my set-ups, my entries and my exits. In fact, I spend more time reviewing and planing my trades than I actually spend trading. While this method is not for everybody and it is time consuming, I firmly believe it is well worth it for the following reasons: First and foremost, it builds confidence in your trading methodology. Seeing how your trades set-up, execute and finish while observing what the market does will allow you to stay in a trade when it is either taking heat or going your way because you will have "seen" it before. Second, it will allow you to build a statistical base for your trades. For me the 2 most important pieces of data that I look for are 1) DD (drawdown) and 2) PP (Pip Potential). This has allowed me to determine how much of a stop I usually need (point of no return for a trade) and how far the trade will run. DD, the Draw down, I find this information most useful as my position size is based on my stoploss. For example, I risk 2% of my capital per trade, so if my stoploss is 10 pips I can use a position size 10 times larger than if my stop was 100 pips. Obviously, the bigger position size the more bang for my Pips I am getting. I hope this helps and please feel free to comment and ask questions, I will continue this topic in my next post. Allen
by AGold54
2
Shorting the DOW. SL & TPThe Dow is currently rejecting significant trend lines on the weekly time frame and we are witnessing decreasing volume from a weekly perspective also. As many of you know who follow me, these trade set ups are what I look for as it allows me to set up a good risk:reward ratio in my trade plan with significant price action changes having to occur to stop my trade out. The good old saying goes, The Trend is Your Friend! Fundamentally, we know that the future is dark economically, and generally I do not look further then technical analysis when implementing a trade plan. But when we look at the fundamental uncertainty on top of the technical set up, we have to get excited about this particular position. If you are following me, you would have noticed a few weeks ago I published a short position for NASDAQ. Well, NASDAQ has since dropped significantly while the DOW has not further indicating that we are both fundamentally and technically advantaged in this trade set up. I have published the daily chart so that we can view the results of this trade day by day instead of waiting for weekly candles to roll over to update the chart.
AMEX:DIA
by CryptOReilly
ASX set for Trend Reversal. Bearish Divergence WeeklyHi all, as you can see on the weekly time frame (also monthly) we are witnessing positive price action for the ASX. Although positive price action is generally celebrated, it needs to be backed up with positive movements in relative strength, which in this case is not happening. As you will see on the chart published, despite the positive price action we experienced a lower high on the RSI, which during an uptrend can often be an early indicator for a trend change. This is commonly known as an RSI Bearish Divergence. Due to this, I am opening a long term short position in which I expect significant downside movement, and since being so close to the recent weekly high, I only have to risk a minimal % of my position. Anyone who follows me will know that these are my ideal trading set ups and I will more often then not open positions when these set ups occur.
ASX:ASX
by CryptOReilly
4
CGC continues to tighten in Equilibrium PatternCGC is currently in a very tight equilibrium pattern. Although these conditions are not ideal for active trades or anyone looking to trade short term, they are ideal for those of you whom are patient and are willing to wait for a break to enter a short/long position. Equilibrium patterns are my favourite pattern to trade from upon breaking as there is generally very significant movement to whichever direction it breaks. Please note, although not textbook due to amount of time, some may argue that this is a bull flag scenario. I will keep everyone updated as to what positions I open for CGC.
C
by CryptOReilly
Daily EMA Support v Weekly EMA Resistance As you can see on the daily BTC chart at the moment, daily exponential support has remained significantly strong. Although, when we zoom out to the weekly chart, we notice that weekly exponential resistance has remained significantly strong also. With a weekly equilibrium pattern also in play, trading conditions are not looking favourable until one of these exponential forces break. Although no opportune trading opportunities are present with BTC right now from my perspective, the longer this tight range continues for, the more reward there will be upon a break to the upside or downside. These scenarios also allow us to clearly establish significant support and resistance areas to create plans accordingly. Below are the two plans I have at the moment in anticipation for either a break bearish or bullish: 1 - Bullish BTC breaks through weekly exponential resistance zone with significant daily volume and lack of selling pressure (3950-4000USD) In this scenario, I would start entering long positions in anticipation for a test of 4188USD. 2 - Bearish BTC loses daily exponential support (3790-3850USD zone) In this scenario, I would start entering short positions in anticipation for a test of 3654USD. Many traders like to look at patterns from years ago to speculate on future price action, I myself prefer to just patiently wait for favourable trading scenarios where I can ideally trade the macro trend and mitigate risk as much as possible through effective risk management strategies. Trading right now for me is too risky in the cryptocurrency market until a direction is more clear. I am the unemotional, devotional trader.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptOReilly
EURUSD Optimum shorting opportunity As you can see on the daily chart for EURUSD, there is currently a strong downtrend in motion and we are approaching trend line resistance in which we anticipate a lower high to be formed followed by continued downwards movement. The reason this is such an optimal trading opportunity is that we only need to risk 1% of the position with the stop loss due to the downtrend being broken if a further 1% movement to the upside is made. Thus, we are creating a much more favourable outcome for us in which the trend is most definitely our friend. I have not been getting many likes or followers from FOREX publishes and am very willing to publish more detailed and frequent trade plans and analysis if people follow. I am the unemotional, devotional trader.
by CryptOReilly
How to surf NASDAQ like a Boss. +62% in 175 days strategy.Hello everyone, I just wanted to share one of my strategies since some of our clients have asked for it. This is a strategy that I use for trading more significant accounts. But I've found out that it works really well even with small ones, especially if you use leverage. On this strategy, we use Spectro M2 indicator by Hypester.org and Alpha-Omega Index , also by them. The features we are seeing and have to be considered, I don't wanna get technical with names, so I'll keep this educational: #1 The pivotal lines and it's green/red zones. #2 The arrows that point an oversold/overbought area #3 The warnings that give that extra confirmation #4 The blue backgrounds that tell you that the current trend is exhausted Now observe how I use it on the chart. All the stop-losses, entries, take-profits & targets are there. This strategy has yielded +62% in the last 175 days, and its conditions are relatively easy for anyone to follow. I use this strategy for many other assets and timeframe - I shared it because I feel like it's one of the simplest and yet robust ones I use. From that, you can guess what the next trade is, right? Let me know what you think below. Good luck with your trading, Specter
NASDAQ:NDAQ
by spectertrading
2
XRP/USD Founder Criticism After 16 days of lower lows, XRP prices are steadying, gaining in the last day and just 1.4 percent down from last week’s close. Though this is overly positive for investors –because it confirms our previous XRP/USD trade plan, we need to see spike in participation. From candlestick arrangement we shall recommend bulls once there is a clear break and close above 40 cents—our minor resistance line and buy trigger line. It’s easy to see why. Notice that after 17 days of draw down that saw prices did from 60 cents to spot prices, XRP prices risk dropping below 30 cents and 25 cents erasing gains of Sep 2018 and binning our forecast. But, in the last three weeks, there has been rejection of lower lows causing bulls to slow down thanks to the long lower wick hinting of increasing demand in lower time frames. Of note in this time frame is Nov 25 pin bar. After a week of strong bears, prices did find support and since then XRP/USD has been oscillating within its high low. For bears to dominate then we need to see clean breakouts below Nov 2018 lows. Then and only then shall we recommend shorts with first targets at Sep 2018 lows and later 15 cents or lower. Conversely, injection of bulls that ignites a rally above 40 cents shall trigger aggressive traders into action. When that prints, then bulls should buy on dips with first targets at 60 cents.
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by kris_pad
QQQ-The Great Fall-Fibonacci/Wave AnalysisQQQ is a strong sell. Thesis: QQQ has completed a 5 Wave Cycle and will now begin the correction phase. Big Tech is immensely overvalued here. QQQ's chart has setup an irregular correction which occurs after a 5 Wave Cycle. Irregular Corrections have a phenomenon called 'Double Retracement'. The first retrace is the extension of the 5th Wave and the second is the whole 5th wave sequence. The first retracement usually covers only that portion of the fifth wave that went beyond a normal fifth wave. We can also compute where the irregular top will likely occur by doing the same calculations we would use for a zigzag. Irregular corrections can also occur after a normal fifth wave. The only difference is we need not get the full second retracement of the fifth wave as is common with an extended fifth wave. The first move after the end of wave 5 would be a three wave affair (Check) and is labeled as Wave A. The Wave B that follows will also be in three sub waves but the price will exceed the top of Wave 5 (Check). Thereafter, we will get a normal Wave C made up of five sub waves (Happening Now). Wave A - 3 (Completed) Wave B - 3 (Completed) Wave C -5 (Underway) Facebook = MySpace? Can Facebook be replicated? Can Twitter be replicated? Can Google be replicated? Yes. Also, data privacy and misuse story is only beginning... Another important clue that you can keep in mind is this. Compute the time and distance traveled by both the waves 2 and 4 of the lower degree. Then, your zigzag correction will be bigger in size and take longer time than the bigger of waves 2 and 4. For example, suppose wave 2 traveled 50 pips and took 3 hours, whereas wave 4 traveled 25 pips and took 5 hours. In this case, your zigzag correction will take more than 5 hours and will travel more than 50 pips. Will update. -AB
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by FibMarketWatch
5