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2022-12-W49-NZDJPY: Bulls Are Exhausted, Bears Should Come.Hi supporters A Cypher Bearish pattern is forming in timeframe 1M (X: Dec 2014, 94.049; A: Jun 2016, 69.232; B: Jul 2017, 83.910; C: Mar 2020, 59.490; D: Nov 2022, 87.456). If bearish Fibonacci traders dominate the market, we could find short opportunities in coming months. Cypher Bearish structures have appeared two times in Apr 2022 and Jun 2022. Stop Losses: • max = max(87.347, 86.811, 87.456) = 87.456. • max = max(87.347, 86.811, 87.456, 94.049) = 94.049. Current Price: 86.670. Targets: • 83.910 (B, High@Jul 2017). • 78.861 (High@Dec 2018). • 74.564 (Low@Aug 2021). More Information: NZDJPY has a history of following Fibonacci by forming a Bat Bullish pattern in Apr 2020. Remark: • Trade plan is valid within 03 weeks. For example, if a trade plan was issued in W41, its trade-nows would be in W41, W42 and W43. From the start of W44, the trade plan was expired. • We decide to dedicate all of our time and effort to finding the best entries. Exits are on your own decision. As a result, we will not update when trade plan is cancelled/expired, price hits stops/targets, or trade is closed manually. • This is our trade plan for your reference, not a financial advice. Your trades are based on your own decision. Please make sure to read the disclaimer below.
Short
by SupersafeTrader
🔸USDJPY: Plans for NY🔸 📉 Text marks: 🔹 IL = impulse leg. Inside of IL we can usually see inside structure, which is secondary in nature, like a market noise, unless you trade it on LTF, as it’s own IL. 🔹 ph, pl = protected high or low, which holds current structural impulse. 🔹 bos = break of structure . Based on candle body close below/above previous structural impulse. 🔹 rsz, rdz = refined supply and demand zones. Specific areas to look for LTF confirmations. They are manipulative up-moves before real down moves, or vice versa. Strong hands (the Composite Man, as Wyckoff called it) often come back to such zones to close their manipulative orders at breakeven, before pushing prices further. If body closes outside of the zone, in most cases it will mean the cancellation of the setup. 🔹 if ltf confirms = entry only if there's a shift of structure on lower TF inside of rsz or rdz, or any other type of backtested and approved confirmation. 🔹 liq target = liquidity target: next profit taking levels for strong hands, our main targets based on current price action. ☝️Disclaimer: ALL ideas here are for EDUCATIONAL and MARKETING purposes only, not a financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. I share my view on the market and search for like-minded traders. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as trading in a simulated environment. 👉I believe that "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. In reality, a trader is right only when he executes the system and follows his rules, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live, then refine until perfection. 🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀 💬Send your comments and questions below, share your ideas and charts, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
by Yelli_trades
17
S&P 500 - Deep Analysis and Trade PlanHey traders, I figured I'd share my ideas for swinging and day trading the SP500 over the next several days / weeks. I'm using the continues SP500 futures chart but this analysis should work on SPX and SPY as well with few (if any) differences. I'm going to do my best to make this post valuable even when this market structure is rendered broken by price action. My goal is to make this educational and hope to help people learn how to think their way through a trade, from planning to execution. MARKET STRUCTURE (Daily Chart) The market has been trapped beneath 4327 for quite some time and have, thus far, respected a high and a low of the range. Recent consolidation in the range during the last leg down has formed a small supply zone which could prevent prices from revising the high in the current structure. On the bullish side of the coin, a demand zone dating back to the front side of the trend has been propping up prices. Over the last several days this demand zone has been successful in holding up the current price action, forming a reliable support in which to day trade from. PRICE CAN ONLY DO ONE OF TWO THINGS No need to overcomplicate the analysis at this stage. We just need to recognize that it can only do one of two things. I can respect support and move up or it can violate it and move down. So far we have seen consolidation on support and no real burst of aggression from buyers, making one wonder if there are enough buyers to hold off the sellers at this level. It's important not to predict but one could make the argument that fighting for position at this level is worthwhile, whether bullish or bearish. My thoughts are that, based on this chart and information, it is too early to execute a trade and pick a side. I'm rather conservative in these scenarios and would prefer to see additional confirmation of a side beginning to dominate the other. IDENTIFYING THE OPPORTUNITY ZONES A couple of parallel channels set to the recent highs and lows of this consolidation makes for an easy way to identify zones of opportunity and further develop trading plans. I say "plans" because I am planning for both bearish and bullish movements for a swing trade as well as interactions with these levels for day trading opportunities. It is prudent to react to what the market is doing rather than trying to impose our individual will upon it. If it goes up, we trade up. If it goes down, we trade down. No reason to overcomplicate things. At this stage we are simply looking for price to show us a sign of some form between the pair of orange lines at the top or bottom with no real preference. In lower time frames this could be useful for day trading and overnight trading setups. We are also looking for price to make it's move to the top or bottom side of the extremes, preferably with rising volume, spiking ATR, or a retest of that support or resistance level without breaking it. HUNTING FOR A TRIGGER These are some examples of potential setups and triggers on the hourly chart. Of course this is not an exhaustive list of possibilities but just an idea of some things we might see again at these extremes if the market were to continue to bounce around in this range. Our plan, should the market stay inside of this range, is simply buy low, sell high or short high and cover low. IT WILL BREAK OUT.... Eventually. When it does we should be looking at our volume, oscillators, ATR, or whatever your favorite flavor of confirmation is. Personally, I watch the ATR, RSI, and price action. I want to see a retest of old resistance become support or old support become resistance. When that happens, I look for my entry, trigger, and targets. DIRECTIONAL BIAS - STICK A FORK IN IT Now I'm ready to pick a side to lean toward. Team Bulls or Team Bears? In my opinion there is no finer tool in all of technical analysis for establishing directional bias and studying the geometry of the market than the Andrews Pitchfork. In the above picture we can see that the market has very clearly respected the top and center of the pitchfork. Based upon that, I would expect the market to continue to respect these levels until proven otherwise. BEARISH TRADE PLAN Our two parallel channels from the daily chart conveniently bracket the low of a recent swing in the market and intersect with the upper boundary of the pitchfork. If the market is kind to me, I'll get a nice trigger or bearish pattern at or near this area. From there, trade management would be relatively simple. Target the recent low and potentially beyond or exit the trade should the market fail to hold a down trending structure. My first price target would be the recent lows and the second price target would be the centerline of the pitchfork. My thesis of a bearish move in the market is due to several factors: 1) There is a prevailing down trend prior to this range forming. 2) The market has shown weakness when approaching the upper extreme 3) The economic data continues to be unimpressive and talk of recession is rising 4) The geometry of the pitchfork has been respected and it is pointing down 5) Recent surging volume led to increasing prices, but prices have failed to break higher with any significant follow-through. In my opinion this shows weakness in the market. BULLISH TRADE PLAN Sometimes we just do not get the market or analysis right. Sometimes we do everything right and the market does what it wants anyway. It's important to understand that our analysis does not control the markets and therefore we need a backup plan. I see two possible scenarios based upon the data we have on this chart. 1) Prices pullback to the bullish opportunity zone and respect / confirm support and proceed upward 2) Prices move up from current levels and break out of this geometry of the market, push through the center of our parallel channels, and test the upper extreme. In either scenario I would need a very clear trigger and indication of buying pressure. I personally feel as though this would be counter to the dominant trend and has a bit lower probability of success than our bearish theory. We can, however, make money on a bullish move and should be prepared to do so if the market dictates that prices should move up from here. Surging volume on support recently gives indication that there could be strong buying pressure at the recent lows and that sellers might not have the power to push through the area. Joining these buyers could lead to entry early in a trend reversal, if even in the short or intermediate term. CONCLUSION Hopefully you enjoyed this read and my take on the current SP500 chart. I also hope that you find value in this post. Please remember that this is not financial or trading advice but rather an attempt at sharing my thought process with the community. Good luck with your trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingTacticsPro
1
Where to place your STP LOSS is important & can be misleading Choosing your STP loss determines your risk, and is essential part of executing your trade. On this trade analysis, we are looking at ticker F (Ford Motors) using the weekly (W) chart as the active chart, the price is selling off & coming into a Demand Zone (DZ). This DZ is also the last higher Low HL of the long-term (M) monthly uptrend. my trading strategy; makes perfect sense of placing LNG entry, at this level. Order entered & waiting like a snipper in the DZ, surly enough the price penetrates into the DZ & the LNG order is executed at $12.90, now where to place your STP LOSS, meaning at which point do you determine the trade has gone against you & you need to exit & cut your losses short. There are many strategies for placing your stop loss, some of the common ones, are placing the stop loss below the DZ, some other strategies offer a margin as a buffer, for example if price violates the DZ by lets say 0.50 points, am out & the STP Loss is triggered. the stop loss placement strategy that i used in this trade required a close of a candle stick below the DZ, few days after, once that occurred I executed you my STP loss, and was out at 11.30 points loss, so 1.60 loss per share. that is within my Risk to Reward ratio Now, the trade was still a loss, yet it was not a bust; simply because I anticipated this risk within expected range of my trade plan. in other words, I followed my trading plan & rules; that really matters. Following a trading plan is how novice traders become trading sharks. Obviously it hurts the ego to witness price rallies to $15 and above; shortly after closing below the DZ & triggering my stop-loss; but thats life, you can't make sense of it all, the best we can do is learn how to navigate it. *Active Chart (W) *Long-term chart (M) *Enter timing chart (D)
NYSE:FLong
by greatful-me
#SPX - Market Update 7-7-22SPX Broke through the 3870 at open for a nice move and continued to melt up into our 3900 Target by close. This is a bigger momentum level here and top of the double bottom move off 3741. You have to keep in mind the market ran over 160 points now in the last three days and coming into weeks close. If 3900 doesn't hold early on we can see a quicker pullback to 3870. I would keep trades quicker for now until we get a better tell on direction. We have Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment numbers tomorrow morning which will be a catalyst. With a bad reaction 3838 is possible. In different types of markets, you have to adjust goals based on current market conditions In an easy market you can maximize gains - In a hard market you can protect capital - 3. Choppy market you can take quicker wins, build up your account. Learn to change the way you think and you'll be able to trade thru any market Emotions can be a liability to a trading account. Stay calm and remain objective on each trade otherwise you may fail to see consistency..
SP:SPX
by MoneyFlow_Options_Community
Risk to Reward ratio is the QUEEN - Number two reason to tradeWhen i want to take a trade, I look for ODD ENHANCERS, the more odd Enhancers I have the more likely the market will turn in my favour. One of the most important Odd Enhancers is proper Risk to Reward ratio. Rs/Rw means how much am willing to risk if the trade goes against me, divided by how much Reward is trade gives if it is profitable. A properly weighted Rs/Rw ratio yield a factor of 4 to 5. In this trade on QSR traded on the NASDAQ, am risking a little over a dollar for a reward of four dollars & much more if the new formed downtrend continues. now, we got the Rs/Rw ratio out of the way of teachings. why would i Enter this trade. If Risk to Reward is the Queen then identifying the Trend is KING. You must of heard people say, trade the trend, swim with the current not against it & you flow. - first step Identify the Trend on any longer term chart. (there are many techniques for this) - Second step trade the trend corrections on the Short term chart (this is the chart I use to identify my ENTR price & my STP losses) This is it! identify the trend on the bigger picture & look for opportunities to join. In this Trade. according to my Trend identification technique, I observed the Week (W) long term trend to turn into a downtrend after it broke the last LH of the previous week uptrend. now the trend is down. am looking to short. I ENT my SHRT at 59.80 with a tight STP above 61.03 my risk is tolerable when compared to my Reward if the downtrend was to continue. well, it is struggling. my trigger STP was triggered & am out. simple as that. I will take my small loss & walk away holding my head high in respect for my trading plan that does not work all the time but works enough that i can make a living doing this.
NYSE:QSRShort
by greatful-me
The trend is your friend, until... The trend is your friend, until it...BREAKS! What do I mean by this? Well I will produce a video this week explaining what I mean by this and how fixed-income market is something you should be keeping an eye on Now $GBPAUD - Beautiful bearish movement we've had for a while but now we getting bullish candle! What does this mean? Sorry to disappoint you or to get you excited - it means absolutely nothing at this current moment of time, we in bearish channel and if we close above out of this channel, then sure bullish movement could come into control for short term and go to next resistance if NOT - guess what, the trend is still your friend, so you take the short side! There is most likely going to be a set up on short term time frame brewing and there was long opportunity this week, a great set-up should be brewing for us to trade next week. In my personal opinion, I rather be late to the party than early.. All explained in the week ahead video! Have a great week ahead TJ Disclaimer: Not Investment Advice
by Trade_Journal
When a trade is reverses fortune and you wonder what went wrongLets say you have a trade opened & its profitable. all going to plan. then you get greedy. over boastful of your legendary trading skills. you ignore the original trade plan, you devise a better plan to accumulate more profit. you dont respect your previous profit Targets, & you keep the trade running, eventually you becoming forgetful of the market nature & trading. The market turns against you & you are left wondering what went wrong. Has this type of trade ever happened to you? it happened to me
NYSE:FLong
by greatful-me
8
Do we pick a bottom? Trade Plan Falling Wedge 21 JanEnvironment * Macro: Downtrend (falling wedge, short resistance, look for test of support of wedge. * Swing: Eyeing daily support for possible bounce. Look for continuation and signs of weakness, we might get a bounce now some leverage is flushed out and whales filled their belly. This could mean the whales that missed out still need a small nudge down and we consolidate for a few days or we go back up. Don't rule out dead-cat bounce to top of falling wedge. * Day: possible reversal (look for day longs when approaching lower levels on divergence, VPFR & golden ratio, or continuation signs) * Scalping: bull flags on lower timeframes with MA and vwap 1-12m Top down analysis: 07:20 UTC+1 * D: Money Flow deep in the red, RSI's low, VWAP down, Stocastic about to cross, volume rising. Divergence possible, but unconfirmed. Bullish outlook, bounce on important daily level and close to macro falling wedge * 12h: same story as D, Bullish outlook * 6h: vwap pointing up, after big dump divergence is stil valid but needs a push up, RSI stronger than yesterday bouncing very low below 10 , volume spiked on the way down, potentially a flush out of weaker hands, neutral outlook, we have to hold daily support or HVN below. * 4h: very big divergence showing, we need big downside continuation to not get a juicy div. Q: Will it be dead cat or continue? Work both sides of the book. * 2h: momentum curving for a div 2h bounce, bull volume clearly defending bears, vwap and money flow too RSI very low * 1h: no div but very low RSI, VWAP working its way up, green dot selling pressure has stopped * 3-24m: most lower timeframe divergences have played out. I’m looking for one more to get some big swing positions. A bounce back on the daily or a bit below on the HVN would pick a great bottom for now!
Long
by Arko87
1