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Trader-elisa

$ETH - Today's update...#ETH #UPDATE - As before, looks stronger than BTC, making more pronounced HLs, respecting trend, and has now formed into a symmetrical triangle. An inside bar failure pattern on the 4h suggests we should at least test a bit lower at 174.20. However an equivalent on the daily a few days ago would suggest we test 181.85. (Although I haven't backtested reliability of this pattern on ETH) Price remains non-impulsive on the up moves, and continues to respect bear ranges over bull although with growing indecision. However if BTC takes this down, at this stage I don't expect it to take out the recent lows even though my long term outlook below 186.50 is very bearish.
BITMEX:ETHUSD.P
by Trader-Elisa
1
$BTC - Few updates from my TG chan earlier#BTC #UPDATE - Yesterday's update played out nicely, with a retest at 8022. Respecting levels well, price rebounded with another inverse V to 8200 at the lows of the wave 3 impulse then ended up back at wave 3 range lows. While we have now made a HL, this is our 3rd tap on the level with decreasing bounce volume therefore there is increasing likelihood of it breaking. The upper V retested on low tf decreasing the need to go back up there although we left a minor untested level at 8125. On the bulls' side, of note, you can see while we still are making lower highs, they are becoming relatively "less low" in relation to the last. Although in contrast on the bears' side, note the gradient of the down swings still exceeds that of the upswings. Together these two things tell me that bears are still pushing down faster than bulls push back up, however bears are becoming less inclined to sell at these lower prices. All things considered, while bulls are pushing back to a degree, I remain 60:40 bearish here. I expect to be testing 7910 again soon, and I am still expecting to take out the wicks below 7480. Seems I lost a couple of levels from my chart so I have replaced them and this chart is a quick reminder of the ranges I am looking at from the bull move.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Trader-Elisa
2
$ETH - Two great trades no matter which way it chooses.Had a few telegram updates since my last one on here - posted below... Wednesday #ETH #UPDATE - Couldn't hold $207 for the third time in the face of further decline on BTC, however is still amazingly holding above yesterday's low. If we can't hold a decent up move in the next 12 hours or so here we will be looking at a short back to the 190s and possibly back down to the now ancient level I have at $176.50. Thursday #ETHUSD - Lovely short following not holding $207. Perfect take out of the level retest area at $176. 13% or around 7R. Friday #ETH - If BTC does start some crazy up move in the near future I recommend jumping in ETH, no resistance between just above here and back up to around the $204-5 area. Now Bear Pennant has developed and all up ETH is looking more bearish than BTC, having not managed to break the 180's (and I have found recently ETH to be more market reflective than BTC therefore this makes me more bearish on BTC too.) Anyway we trade what we see - as above, a break up and we have clear space back to $204-5. A break below will see a test of the support at $176 and the pole flag target is a scary approx. $154. I don't currently have a level there but will need to go back and check if that area can act as support.
BITMEX:ETHUSD.P
by Trader-Elisa
2
$BTCMore updates from earlier: Wednesday: #BTC #UPDATE - Well the brief try to hold the black channel failed, 11k had a minor reaction but not much and we have dropped back into the lower range blue channel. Interestingly stopped right now at my lowest arrow for missed retests. Right between the pattern targets with the main thing holding us here likely to be the 61.8% fib. We are starting to make a reversal pattern now however it is still unconfirmed and weak. #BTC #UPDATE - Couldn't break 650 earlier. and fell to the next level down. We are again at a critical point seeing if this local low is a fakeout. Again confirmed - at least short term - if we can create a HL above the 10500-550 levels. Friday: #BTC #UPDATE - So on the way down below 11k it was quick, which you'll remember from my updates on the way up was predictable. Up too fast = down too fast! We respected most of my levels on the way down but none were strong enough support to hold for long. We went lower than I expected, but bounced strongly at 9500 right down the second lowest local missed retest level I had marked. Don't get too excited at the bounce yet - this is most likely just correcting the large downswing and it will only be when we see the correction of this small impulse (and whether it can hold higher than 9500) that we can more accurately predict whether we should be bullish. We are moving up but can already see volume dying off. I'll need to check and update my levels today but the second chart shows you the fib retracement levels for this wave which do align nicely with them. (So well in fact I really think I need to be doing more work on target prediction because when I reflect it seems often blindingly obvious!!) Today: #BTC #UPDATE - Turns out I didn't need to update my immediate levels. We got the correction of the first up move I expected per my last post. Bounced exactly on the previously broken 9730 level making a HL. I wouldn't have expected the move up so quickly but as we know that was helped along by Bakkt! Range is now 10250 - 10500 and it is looking promising we have held 10250 second time around for longer. On the down side, volume is terrible, declining despite the price rise. CMF and MFI tell a similar story with divergence on the lower timeframes. On higher tf, I am bullish while we remain above trend. On lower tf, we are still simply correcting this immediate downtrend until I can see decent support being made and held with volume against it. Low tf picture - Still very much a bear flag unless we can take out 10500 and close above with some decent buy volume. Wicks off the lows are promising along with lack of resistance above so if we do go up it should be quick back to 11280. Given the move was Bakkt impelled, if we break 10250 I would expect a test of 9400. And if this is a bear flag, the pole target takes us to 8k but let's cross that bridge if we come to it! As always, I would really prefer for us to range here a while to gain support though. Too many big moves quickly don't do us much good longer term!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Trader-Elisa
1
$ETH - price action growing more bearish now...#ETH #UPDATE - After that great bounce off 198 we unsurprsingly rejected the first go at getting back over 215 although gave a great entry at 207 retest from my last post. This little wave is now correcting and we are at the 50% fib level riding the outside of my dubious looking channel! Being unable to break 215 was one thing, however falling back much further now would be concerning for bulls. I had a closer look and there are still a couple of missed retests below for the short term. We have now spent nearly a month ranging and holding this level with slightly higher lows, so we need a break up soon - another retest of the 190s will likely mean a fall to the longer term missed level at 175. You can see the black lines which form what I consider the range, and the rejection just above 215 was right off the median of that channel too. We do have decreasing sell volume on this last down stretch so may see a bounce soon and where that can get to is critical now. For me this is a no trade zone for the moment but I am starting to think the bears could win here.
BITMEX:ETHUSD.P
by Trader-Elisa
Perfect retest - looking for accumulation and support now#ETH #UPDATE - This couldn't have gone much better from the update yesterday. Bears won, couldn't break trend - dumped down and took out pink arrows at the three lower levels with a great wick, bounced off the long term trendline from the highs, then quickly hopped back onto the $206 level and has now broken trend resistance. Not out of the woods yet as 215 is likely to be resistant, and we have left a couple of missed retests now in the $207 area. I would like to see a retest there and some accumulation (but don't always get what I want!) and find support before trying for the $215 area. So if you're looking to buy see if you can get in a little lower. Also obviously we are likely to align with BTC so I need to see if I think this is going to move up too. We got a big jump on ETHBTC yesterday as a result of ETH's strength over BTC so I need to chart that too and see if it is looking strong.
BITMEX:ETHUSD.PLong
by Trader-Elisa
Squeezed between trend resistance and support. Break incoming! #ETH #UPDATE - As seemed most likely ETH broke support again and hit trend and the next pink arrow retest level. While we had a decent bounce a few hours ago, we rejected nicely off the support, now resistance, we just came through at 215. On the bull side we made a fakeout and then a HH after the bounce off 206 which is promising - and including HLs on the higher timeframes. However we need a decent HL on the hourly followed by upward breaks of trend and 215 to confirm reversal. Particularly since we had such a strong bearish down candle. On the bear side, we are still looking very corrective on higher tf, and a 5th wave down wouldn't surprise me. This will be clear very soon, as if we can't break back above 215 we will likely make LLs breaking the trendline we just bounced off. Indicators are tough on the hourly, while we saw some regular bullish divergence on the lows, this has quickly morphed into hidden bearish divergence. 4h are close to oversold without divergence and daily have a lot more room to go down. Bollinger bands are well inside the keltner channels, on the daily, and we are due for expansion on that larger tf.
BITMEX:ETHUSD.P
by Trader-Elisa
BTC Retrace time#BTC - After taking liquidity at two levels and a swing failure, I would expect BTC to now retrace and test lower levels. You can see there is a local mid term level at the 9880 mark and the 38 fib which needs a retest at a minimum. But then we would also expect a rounded retest of the broken ascending triangle too so we could go lower to the 61% fib. On the larger tf, the rejection at 10100 is concerning - it would have been good to test and exceed 10200 breaking market structure and much more bullish. As it stands now we need to wait for a lower bounce - remaining above the ascending triangle (9730) gives us good traction to come back and break 10200, any lower and I will become much more bearish. What I do like about this move though is that it is organic, unlike the 'Bart' moves we have had of late.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Trader-Elisa
Getting closer to an up moveSlightly differing to BTC as the recent fall didn't break local market structure the lows of the 24th. Therefore is much closer to taking out the highs at 222 although has rejected 3 times off the 214 level so far. The break of local trend yesterday gave a nice little short if you saw my post. The lower trendline at this stage is hypothetical and unconfirmed by the requisite 3 touches. Price is in the upper section of the range and looking promising but 214 needs to be broken and held. Again like BTC, possible ascending triangle here - may have missed the long off support opportunity so a possible breakout long trade may be possible later.
BITMEX:ETHUSD.P
by Trader-Elisa
BTC decision time incoming...Apologies for lack of updates on this the last couple of days. Partly because with all the wicks and manipulation it was hard to judge what it may do! We were holding the range betweem 9390 and 9530. Yesterday we broke up from the range with a big wick to my next level at 9890, but ultimately couldn't hold over 9610 which is a critical level for breaking market structure. On the bulls' side, we then rebounded with a small IHS taking back the 9530 level as support, and are currently having another go at holding 9610 and the next level at 9660. The wick already took out stops above so I would hope any upward move would be slower and more organic now. There is a possible ascending triangle in play. On the bear side, volume is still very low and this current move could still simply be a B wave from yesterday's move from 9400, meaning a C wave is coming at least back to the lower range. Critical to watch now are the next few hours and whether we can continue to hold trend and 9610. Any break here will likely see us challenging the lows.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Trader-Elisa
BTC Levels AnalysisWell I managed to lose all the information from the actual chart due to some issue with layouts so this analysis is in the form of pictures! Analysis of how levels are broken and retested. Note there is always some objectiveness with regard to wicks - in this example I have ignored a couple of the wicks at the start based on later price action which you obviously wouldn't necessarily know at the time so it needs some personal judgement. I have also not commented on all the local levels. You can draw this on any timeframe and trade it. It shows also why we have multiple take profit levels - you cannot know a level will hold or break until it gets there, although indicators such as momentum and volume can give you an indication. Hourly breakdown. Buy side. 15m breakdown. Sell side.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Trader-Elisa