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Traderdale

NZD/CAD: An Intraday Analysis from A to ZToday, I am going to do a complete intraday analysis on NZD/CAD. I am going to show you the way I always do it from A to Z. Rotation vs. Trend The first thing I check is whether there is a trend or a rotation. If there is a rotation then I am looking for both buying and selling opportunities (longs and shorts). When there is a trend, then I am looking only for trades which are in line with the trend. NZD/CAD is clearly in a downtrend, so I will be looking for short trades only. Weekly Volume Profiles After I decided whether I look for longs, shorts, or both I look into Weekly Volume Profiles. Those should point me to the strongest intraday supports and resistances. If an intraday support/resistance is clearly visible on the Weekly Volume Profile, then the chances of a successful reaction to it are higher. Why? Because even those traders who trade bit higher time frames will be interested to trade these volume support/resistances. In other words – such trading levels attract more traders – for example, intraday traders using 15-minute charts as well as swing traders using 1-hour charts. So, if a level is visible on the bigger picture, then chances of success are bigger. Summary In the end I came up with an intraday trading resistance at 0.8397. Reasons: 1. Downtrend (I want shorts) 2. 1st Deviation of VWAP 3. Weekly POC 4. Intraday trading setup on 30 Minute chart All those 4 points are in line with each other point to the 0.8397 resistance. Does this mean it will surely work? Absolutely not! In trading even the best resistance or support can fail. We as traders must accept that there is no way we can be right in 100% of the cases. In fact I consider an experienced pro trader whoever is able to maintain 60% win rate in the long run. If you manage that, then congratulations, you are a winner in this game! I hope you guys liked my analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below! I will be looking forward to see you on Monday with Weekly Trading Ideas Video! Happy trading! -Dale
by Trader_Dale
1
How Deep Can The EUR/USD Drop?All eyes are on the EUR/USD again. The reason is that it broke all significant supports and it is under strong and constant selling pressure since the beginning of this month. Is there a way to tell where this strong downtrend might stop and possibly turn? Yes, there is! But we need to have a look at higher time frames – weekly or monthly. Why? Because we need to see the price action and volumes that were in this area in the past. The last time EUR/USD was as low as it is now was in 2017. For that reason, we need to look into this area and try to find something to hold onto there. What happened in 2017… 2017 was a trend year. First, there was a few months of rotation from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017. Then a massive uptrend started and lasted almost a whole year. Now, I am interested in how the volumes were distributed in this area. When I use my Flexible Volume profile on the 2017 uptrend, then it shows this. In the screenshot above you can see that I marked a significant volume cluster area from beginning of 2017. What this tells me is that there were massive volumes accumulated there. Then the trend started. Trend started with a gap If you look closely, then you can see, that it actually started with a gap! An interesting thing worth pointing out is that sellers were not able to close this gap! The buyers were just pushing too hard. Scenario like this is very rare and it shows the power of buyers. So, we have heavy volumes at the bottom, then a gap which did not get closed and then one year of an uptrend. Heavy volume cluster in 2017 The buyers who started this crazy uptrend in 2017 were initially building their buying positions in the rotation I marked. From there they were pushing the price upwards. Currently, after almost three years the price is heading back into this area. What is going to happen? This is trading, we can never be sure, but chances are that there could be a buying reaction from this old volume cluster (around 1.0600). The reason for that is that the buyers who were there in 2017 could become active again and cause another strong buying activity. This would stop the current sell-off and it could eventually turn it into a new buying activity (an uptrend). Also the sellers who are currently pushing the price downwards probably won’t want to risk a fight with the buyers from 2017 and they will quit their selling positions. They will most likely do so at the volume cluster from 2017. When a seller gets rid of a short position he needs to buy (go long). This also helps to push the price upwards. I hope you guys liked this analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below! Happy trading! -Dale
by Trader_Dale
GOLD – Intraday Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileThe previous week I wrote about the importance of the big picture analysis. I did a long – term analysis on Gold using Weekly charts and Volume Profile. Now, I would like to zoom in a bit and analyze Gold on a much lower time frame (30 Minute). This will point us to intraday supports/resistances which are currently there. Price Action analysis Let’s first start with simple Price Action. Currently, there is an uptrend on Gold. When there is a trend development like this, then I like to use my Flexible Volume Profile on the trend area. My goal is to see significant Volume Clusters which got accumulated in the trend. Volume Clusters What does a Volume Cluster in a trend mean? Volume Cluster is an area, with heavy volumes. You should be able to spot them easily with Volume Profile. They should be visible on first sight. Nice and clean, that’s what we are looking for. When there is a Volume Cluster (or more of them) created in a trend, then it means that heavy volumes got traded there. In this case, there is an uptrend. Volume Cluster in an uptrend means this: Buyers are pushing the price upwards and there are places, where those buyers were adding massively to their buying positions (that’s where we see Volume Clusters). Then they drive the price even higher. GOLD: Intraday Supports In the picture you can clearly see three significant Volume Clusters. Those were areas where buyers were entering most of their buying positions. What will happen when the price turns and makes it back to those three areas? Chances are, that those buyers who were building up their buying positions there will become active again. They will try and defend those areas (defend their positions), and they will try to push the price upwards from those areas. This is why those three Volume Clusters should work as significant (intraday) supports. Does it matter when the price makes the pullback to those levels? Well, in my experience markets have really good memory. So it does not matter that much. Those three Volume Clusters should be strong Supports even after few weeks after they got formed! I hope you guys liked my intraday analysis. Please let me know what you think in the comment section below! Happy trading! -Dale
TVC:GOLD
by Trader_Dale
1
Trading Volume Clusters on ES (S&P 500 Futures)Quite a lot of people like trading indices using the Volume Profile tool. In my experience, the Volume Profile works fantastic with indices. In fact, I am also planning to add ES (SP 500 futures) to the levels which I publish daily for members of my Trading course. So, today, I would like to have a closer look at the ES and show you my intraday trade analysis using Volume Profile there. Let’s look for some Volume Clusters! There was a strong buying activity on Monday and buyers were pushing the price upwards. When I see an intraday uptrend like this, then I start to look for significant Volume Clusters formed within the uptrend. Such Volume Clusters point to places, where the buyers who are pushing the price upwards were adding to their buying positions. Volume cluster As you can see, the volumes in this Volume Cluster are really nicely visible and the level is very clear and easy to see. Most of the buyers from this uptrend were adding to their positions at this place. What I expect now is that when the price makes it back to this level again sometime in the future, those buyers will become active again and they will start pushing the price upwards again. This does not need to happen today or tomorrow, not even this week! Markets have good memory, so even if this level gets hit in 2-3 weeks I will still believe in a buying reaction from there. I hope you guys liked the analysis. Feel free to leave a comment below. Happy trading! -Dale
FX:SPX500
by Trader_Dale
1
Heavy Volumes on EUR/USD show strong RESISTANCEEUR/USD was in a strong downtrend. In this downtrend, sellers were adding to their selling positions . They were adding mostly at places where Volume Profile shows significant volume clusters . There is one very significant volume cluster very close to the current price. It is very likely that the sellers who accumulated their selling positions in this volume cluster will try and defend those positions = push the price downwards again. There is also another setup confirming the Volume Cluster setup. This setup is old, well-known setup which says that when sup port is breached, it becomes a resistance . I marked this in the chart in blue.
by Trader_Dale
3