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GBPAUD - Amidst AUD Weakness, Can We Still See Bearish Movement?Today, I'll be starting on technicals and end off on various fundamental factors. So, starting on the 4HR timeframe, we've seen a range of lower lows and lower highs being created with our most recent lower low being formed around the 1.82600 price region. We are now of course, anticipating a lower high to be formed in continuation of the downtrend. The daily and the 4HR timeframes both have bearish EMA crossovers and this may be the slowdown of price on GBPAUD before a massive downside clearing out the prior lows. We did manage to spike below the monthly key level however we closed just above, technically labelling the key level as support and I am looking for a slight retracement higher. We are testing the prior daily high and reaching the 38.2% Fibonacci zone which may be a good reversal zone, but we must take into account, the descending trend line as well as the 61.8/78.6% zone marked up with the ellipse tool. Price has the potential to move +/-100 pips before this pair plummets so I will be vigilant and watch for a candlestick reversal pattern worth noting as well as a nice clean rejection from resistance or the Fibonacci levels. This setup is still shaping itself and I feel we need more confluence to trade this pair. Due to the EMAs being broken to the upside, which we were previously trending below, I'd like to see the closure of the next 4HR candle as well as the opening of the London session to see more liquidity and direction in the market as currently price just seems to be breathing above the monthly key level. Looking at the fundamentals, we have lots of volatility to be seen around 9:30 GMT, regarding the GBP as we see monthly GDP and Manufacturing data being released with a forecast of slightly negative figures compared to the previous month. The are also various data releases from the RBA ( Reserve Bank Of Australia ), however GBP will be in the spotlight as we saw PM May rushing to Berlin yesterday in an attempt to gain another extension till the 30th of June, however if Labour support her, we can see an exit by the 22nd of May. Thursday we should receive the outcome and Friday the UK could leave the EU with no deal if the EU refuse yet another extension of Article 50. Our next expected volatile news for the AUD is the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes early Tuesday morning next week so manage your trades in the correct manner and execute trades with reasonable risk management. Have a great week further traders !
Short
by KeownArcher
Possible AUD/CHF Short position!!SMP TRADING SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe 4 - 16hrs Actions on - A – Activating Event Market will meet resistance in zone @0.711 - .... and fall to the 0.705. In order to enter, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure.... B – Beliefs Market move towards the first Target 1 level @ 0.705 FX:AUDCHF Trade Management Entered @ ..... Stop Loss @ ..... Target 1 @ 0.705 Target 2 @ .... Risk/Reward @ 2.5.1 Happy trading :) Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
NZDUSD - Retracement Before More Downside MovementWith the DXY in a crucial area laying in line with the 78.6 % Fibonacci level as well as a potential head & shoulder pattern, we may see this pair shoot to the upside. However, we have breached the descending trend line and closed above. This may be a false breakout or we will see a break & retest to push price higher for the USD. If the latter occurs, we should see NZDUSD plummet. Looking at the daily timeframe on NZDUSD, we saw a fakeout spiking 70 pips above the descending trend line, however we saw previous resistance met, looking left, and saw a sharp decline to the downside. We then came up to test resistance which we then rejected, ( this was also a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If you drop down to the 4HR timeframe, you will be able to see a double spinning top / doji formation off this zone showing price exhaustion and a potential reversal. At the time of writing this article, we are currently respecting the ascending trend line and a minor support level. I have the 61.8%/78.6% Fibonacci marked up in blue as my desired entry to short this pair. Being in a pennant, we are currently consolidating and we can expect a breakout. I favour short, however I will look for a break & retest of the descending trend line incase DXY weakens which will then allow us to short USD pairs as well as buy Gold. The EMA's have also recently crossed over as well as dropping down to the 4HR, we can see they are touching each other now and we can expect a new downside leg. The creation of a new range of lower lows and lower highs, rejection of trend line and resistance as well as the Fibonacci retracement are all used for confluence or more confirmation. I will remain patient and look for a high probability , high risk/reward trade. Psychology and risk management is key to being consistent and profitable. Have a great week !
Short
by KeownArcher
2
AUDNZD - Some Retracing To Do Before The Long After seeing price in a clear bear trend since late January, we have finally seen a break & retest of the descending trend line, pushing price close to the daily resistance of 1.04500, creating a new higher high which of course should follow with a higher low. I have hi-lighted the triple spinning tops as this indicates price exhaustion and a reversal / retracement is due. I favour a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement as there is strong support here and it is just above the monthly key level. If price however breaks the monthly key, I have the 61.8/78.6 zones hi-lighted for a further retracement and better entry but this move may be invalid by then, so I will be keeping a close eye on this pair. Once the daily resistance is broken, I see our target regions being met with further upside potential as I favour AUD long all-round. There is expected NZD weakness so this also gives me more reason for a bullish AUD move, however be sure to use correct risk and money management as well as to watch out for certain volatile news events and the times as we can expect volatility this week with plentiful AUD news.
Long
by KeownArcher
XAUUSD - Another Retracement Before Going Long Its been a while since I've looked at the precious metal, Gold. After consolidating between the 1280.00-1290.00 price region, we finally saw a break to the upside. We've steadily been climbing, breaching the weekly key of 1292.25, we then saw slight consolidation around the 78.6% Fibonacci level building up buyers liquidity. This saw price bounce higher, breaking the descending trend line, which i will now anticipate a retest before going long or a bounce off the ascending trend line. We've seen higher highs and higher lows being created, with a lower high being created around the 1306 price region, enticing sellers to short this pair - which I do see happening in the long run as Gold will fall to the 1250/1260 price region. My favoured entry will be a bounce off the ascending trend line with a 38.2 Fibonacci retracement seen, which can bring price back up to 1325.00 price region. I anticipate a reversal from the 1298.00-1304 price regions however I will be looking for more confirmation with a clear rejection off the trend line and Fibonacci level and a candle stick reversal pattern indicating bullish momentum. Risk management is key, do not over leverage or use my analysis if it is out of line with your own. Gold tends to move 70 pips one way and then reverse in the desired direction, so have a tight stop loss and watch the fundamentals this week as we have the FOMC Press Conference with economic projections and various other data and statements being released. Gold & the DXY ( US Dollar Index ) correlate, so when the dollar weakens, price goes up for gold. If you have any other questions, be sure to head over my to instagram Instagram : keownarcher
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by KeownArcher
USDJPY - Is The Dollar In Trouble ? After seeing a series of higher highs and higher lows in a corrective ascending channel, we've now seen a lower high made which could potentially break structure. This was also the 3rd touch off the descending trend line around the 78.6% Fibonacci level. We then saw a break & retest of the ascending channel off the 61.8% Fibonacci level giving us the perfect entry for a sell. I have an entry and will be looking for more retracements to enter on this pair. News may also play a role as we have the FOMC Press Conference, announcing economic projections and Federal Funds Rate, as well as the first quarterly GDP statistics. These are volatile news events so take note of the date and time. There is also plenty more data coming out for the USD so I believe we can see the Japanese Yen being treated as a safe haven. As always, trade with risk management and have a great trading week ! Instagram: keownarcher
Short
by KeownArcher
GBPJPY - A Potential Pump & Dump situation In Play ? Good to be back, had a slight break from the charts & articles this weekend but we coming in full force this week! Beginning with news this week, we can expect a lot of volatility to be seen for the Pound as we continue with BREXIT votes , as well as we will be seeing data releases for the Average Earning Index first quarter, retail sales, CPI data and the official bank rate. This will only be released once the MCP Official Bank Rates votes are completed. We also see the Monetary Policy summary this week. So volatility is expected for GBP - not surprising with speculation in the air that the Brexit vote this week may not be held unless "it has prospect of success" as Theresa May struggles with the DUP & ERG. Back to Technicals, starting on the monthly, I spotted an exciting potential head & shoulder pattern forming with the right shoulder currently being formed. Amidst the Brexit uncertainty, the GBP has gained bullish momentum seen since the flash crash which strengthened the Yen. I believe that after this impulsive movement seen in January, we are in a corrective channel as we can soon expect another impulsive movement. We fell just short of the 71% Fibonacci level which lies 15 pips shy of the monthly key. Dropping down to the daily timeframe, we saw a nice retracement off the 61.8% Fibonacci level for a buy entry, however I don't see these upward targets of 150.600-153.250 being met as we are seeing resistance currently and selling pressure. I do however see another push higher to test 149.000-150.000 price regions .This will see large downside potential meeting the monthly key. I'll be watching for candle stick reversal patterns and a break of the ascending channel on lower timeframes, and weary of price surges higher looking for stop hunts with volatile news surrounding whether or not we will see a no deal . We have seen higher highs and higher lows being made on the daily timeframe with a recent discrete higher high made, just 30 pips above the prior higher high. Price looks exhausted and I believe we are reaching Bears territory with the 149.250 - 149.750 price region being a strong resistance during last year and even further. Coming into 2019 reaching these highs, I believe we can see a a massive reversal with fundamental news also playing a large role. This may be a major pump & dump scenario forming. Let me know what you think ! Instagram : keownarcher - if you need any questions answered head over here.
Short
by KeownArcher
GBPUSD - Cable preparing for a new leg to the downsideLast night we had exciting movement from cable, seeing price bounce off a daily support/resistance region. The main catalyst being PM May's visit to Strasbourg yesterday where it was rumoured she had gained assurances from the EU. However, as of today it is evident she was unable to win over the Government & Members of Parliament, with the governments chief legal adviser giving a rather dovish statement and low liking to her BREXIT deal. A few of PM Mays own party members will reject her deal.This was a classic "Buy the rumour, sell the news" event. Members of Parliament are worried as the PM looks set to see a no deal outcome. Unless of course, the PM and her party alongside the ERG, DUP and majority of voters vote for the PM - which i highly doubt. Back to technicals and we can see on the daily timeframe we had a couple of higher highs and higher lows. However, we have come close to a 3rd touch of the trend line due to last nights news, forming a new lower high. Fundamentals are currently respecting technicals as we've seen a rejection of the descending trend line and a ping off price ranging between the 78.6 / 88.6 Fibonacci regions. We also managed to come below the daily support/resistance marked in purple. Short term downside targets are 1.28600 and 1.27350 respectively. I expect a retracement to this purple resistance also laying in line with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement region before seeing a leg to the downside, before creating a new lower low. This can be a great swing trade to capitalise on a no deal result before seeing a recovery of the GBP. As always, risk management is key. Market manipulation and volatility is expected in these times of uncertainty and volatile news event times should be noted! Thanks for reading, if you have an questions hit me up on instagram. Instagram : keownarcher
Short
by KeownArcher
CADCHF - Can The Bears Override The Bulls ? Okay, so not a pair I usually trade or analyse but it was requested and I humbly accepted. So we can see bulls are in control at the moment, I see an upside move of around 80 pips before we can see a good reversal zone met. I will be looking for the descending trend line to be respected between the 71%-88.6% Fibonacci zone. This will also be a good rejection from the weekly key and we can look for bearish candle stick patterns to indicate a reversal and then our next Lower High will be confirmed. This will then be anticipating a Lower low to continue the downtrend and we can see price drop of around 250 pips. Stop losses will be just above the weekly key. Instagram: keownarcher
Short
by KeownArcher
1
NASDAQ - Where can we go next ? Good old indices. Okay firstly, so looking at the weekly timeframe, we have a potential head & shoulders pattern forming which will allow the bears to take over the market. Dropping down to the daily timeframe we can see we broke out of an ascending channel and currently we are retesting it. If we can close below the counter trend line, we should see downside momentum. Although the candle stick pattern, a hammer followed by a bullish engulfing, I do see this pair falling in the long term. The bullish engulfing has brought us up to and between the 78.6 and 88.6 Fibonacci levels. There is a minor resistance seen here for 5 candle wicks dating back to the 25th of February. I will be looking for reversals from this zone between the 78.6/88.6, a 3rd touch of the descending trend line with a strong candle stick pattern indicating price action is bearish. This will then create a discrete lower high followed by a lower low. Dropping down to the 4HR timeframe, we can see a higher high followed by a higher low, then there was a break of structure creating lower lows and lower highs. Thus i am looking for confirmation to short this pair with a great risk to reward ratio. If no opportunity for a sell is presented for us and the resistance is broken, this short analysis will be invalidated. Which, leads to my next scenario. We see a higher high or a high created followed by a higher low to form an inverse head and shoulder pattern on the 4HR timeframe, allowing us to breach the monthly resistance and go higher. NB : Risk management is key with indices, especially with each $1 accounting for 10 pips. Trade with risk management and smash the week! instagram : keownarcher
OANDA:NAS100USD
by KeownArcher
High probability USDCAD Long With Good R/RUSDCAD has seen Higher Highs ( HH ) and Higher Lows ( HL ) being made on the Weekly and Daily timeframes for a good while now with 1 or 2 Lower Highs / Lower Low fake outs to pull sellers in, however this pair remains bullish. An Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern can be seen on the Daily timeframe which was formed aggressively on the 1st of March. This broke a descending channel creating a HL followed by a HH, with that being said, a HL should be formed to continue our leg to the upside. I have a Minor support on the daily in purple, using the Fibonacci Tool, this sits on a 38.2% retracement zone which will likely be my entry, with a tight stop loss of 30-40 pips. I will be looking for more confirmation with a bullish candle stick pattern at these zones. However this pair can retrace further to the Monthly Key shown which would lay on another great Fibonacci retracement zone. A retracement to the downside by 60-80 pips creating a HL would be favoured for you to then go long on this pair. The DXY looks to retrace before breaching 98.00 regions so this trade looks highly probable as well as the correlation between DXY and Gold, as Gold looks to retrace to the upside before seeing long term downside targets of 1250.00/1260.00 regions. REMEMBER : Risk management is key for all trades & Have a profitable trading week everyone ! Instagram: keownarcher
Long
by KeownArcher