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The SVB Collapse and Why It Matters To YouInteresting situation with the collapse of SVB (SIVB), the people have yet to realize we control the market not the central planners. and the collapse of SVB is a realization of that power. So , here is what i know from the very little articles and podcasts that I listen to and I will give you guys the why its important. From what i know is that SVB business model was somewhat risky in the first place, and their main consumer base was startups, and tech startups. hence the name Silicon Valley portion of Silicon Valley Bank. Now a little money education... in the world of money and currency (remember currency as current it will become important later) there is a concept called the velocity of money, basically the volatility of money. for my stock traders think the VIX. when the VIX is low there is no money to be made because money is not moving. but when the VIX is high there is plenty of money going around so why not use your dollars as napkins, right or "fun coupons"! this is the velocity of money the faster a person can make money move the more money they stand to make. the banks know this. So when you go to the bank and deposit your check your money is already out the door into something else before you're able to but your wallet in your bag or pocket. this happens because of what is called as the "fractional reserve system" and to be honest its a "F"ed up idea but has worked thus far. what this system means for every dollar you put into the bank, the bank can lend out 10$. A bank is a business it makes its profits by lending money, and when you save your money it cost the bank money, because of your .01% interest rate. the reason for the big push for open accounts is because the more open accounts the bank has means the more money they have liquid, which means the more they can loan out, which means the more they stand to profit. now as an insurance policy the US government makes the banks keep a fraction of their total account balances on site incase of what they call a "bank run" happens (get to what a bank run is later) Now, normally you dont notice this or even care because when you go to the bank and want to pull 100$ from your account its no big deal whats a 100$ when your dealing with 100s of thousands. you want a 100$ you get 100$ instantly. But want to see the system become a problem for you, if you have more than lets say 25,000$ or more in an account go try to pull ALL that money out and see what type of road blocks you encounter. they will make you give ID, reasons for shutting down the account, basically your first born child and your blood type. partly is because they really want to know why you're closing the account, because thats profits walking out the door. but the main reason is, they have to reach out to sister branches and other banks to pool that money together to be able to give it to you and this typically happens like over night. so if you think you're about to waltz into your local bank and demand a 25,000$ check right then and there you're sadly mistaken. the same exact process happens when you take out a mortgage, now your talking $200K and up so now there are more road blocks. whether you're the buyer or the seller. you sell your house for 500K and you think that check you deposited is there right when you get it... yeah its not! back to the currency comment money is now a currency it has to keep moving to keep its value. think of it as a river, mostly you can drink water from a river and be okay because bacteria cannot grow in moving water but drink water out of a pond and you just might catch Syphilis (sarcasm intended). money is the same way, the faster you can make it move the more you stand to make and the healthier the money is, if take money out of the river and stick it in your pond as a savings account inflation will eat it alive making it very unhealthy. Even historically before all this crazy inflation started happening the savings rate in a savings account was like 0.01% and inflation was around 2 percent. Now the importance of this lays with the SVB. When looking at their business model it seems solid... "invest in high beta companies, or higher risk endeavors, then to off set this risk we will load up on the safest paper assets money can buy... the US 10Y bond." Officially the US hasn't defaulted on loans before... i mean we will print more money before we default. I mean it sounds like counterfeiting if you ask me, but who am I just a low key, low level, low volume trader with a computer living in my moms basement :) sarcasm... or is it?! Well from the looks of it it would seem SVB bought a ton of these 10Y bonds in 2021 when the economy was ripping and roaring. So, when bond yields are down their prices are way up. So in the full swing of the "roaring 20's" yields were around 1.12X or keeping it simpler 1.1XX. so that must mean the value must of been sky high. My only rational thought for this type of purchase was the risk manager must of thought he could off load the bonds in the bond market for a nice profit thinking good times were going to continue. On the surface it seems okay high risk business model with a low risk counter weight. But "We the People" were leaving SVB, and going back to what i said about taking your 25,000$ savings out, and they were running out of reserves and their bonds were worth less than the paper they were "printed" on, so they filed a loss on their report. on the surface this was fine, because only die hards read a companies 10Q or 8A but all it takes is one... and there is always that one Guy... and not this Regular Guy either. I personally dont like the instability of the tech industry. i mean i do believe we will make a full blown terminator but i dont want to gamble on which company that is regardless of what the gain is... might as well go gamble in my opinion. So, because there was a mass exodus of accounts they were having a hard time fill orders so file your 8A detailing you're offering more stocks to drum up some money and it falls flat. people read said 8A and see that you dont have cash so the word got out and the consumers made a bank run. Dont get it twisted either this can happen to any commercial bank JP Morgan, BofA, Chase, Citi, Credit Suisse and the like. a bank run is when the majority of depositors want their money back now and they do it in close succession of each other forcing the bank to say "we dont have your money" so they in essence "run" to the "bank" to get their worthless paper. Now, what i just learned is back in '08 our amazing government passed legislation basically stating they will no longer bail out banks. (honestly if you guys know the piece of legislation please post it in the comments) I agree with this legislation because when I lost 15k on a bad USDCHF trade 7-8 years ago the government didnt bail me out. that was all my money... just gone in a matter of seconds. So the US government came out and said " we will make sure all depositors will get their monies back... How? step in Bail-Ins And again a bail in is something i literally just learned about... i swear at this point were just making -ish up at this point... ok so we know what a bail out is... basically the US government funnels all this cash into a failing business(s) and the tax payer picks up the tab. so what is a bail-in?... glad you asked a bail-in is when the depositors pick up the tab... How? well the FDIC picks up the first $250K and anything over that 250K is now funneled into bank to help offset the loss. so if you have $500K in the bank the first $250K is yours... uncle sam gives it back via FDIC (which that money has been long gone spent, so i dont know where theyre going to pull money from to keep this facade of the FDIC up) and the next $250K is the banks... So congratulations you have just become a unwillingly silent partner of a failing bank. -ishy news is that the current administration is trying to give more power back to the IRS and bring it back to its glory days like it was in the 80's so you wont be able to claim those losses on your taxes, if you had a business friendly administration you might actually have a fighting chance. i have a feeling the whole world is watching what is about to happen, because the entire banking system relies on high value accounts. if the US says tough luck that might send uneasy shock waves to all the high income earners and might make them want to pull their funds out of the banking system... there is a very interesting article on Credit Suisse that i want to read so ciao!
TVC:US10Y
by ARegularGuy
1
It feels good to be back!It’s been a while now since our last engagement… Well, where should I start…? Many things happened in the last year++ that kept us away from this fantastic trading community and the good people we engaged with throughout our posts. Now, all those things are behind us and we are more than ever committed to continue to provide you with like we used to, the best version of ourselves to help you to get the best out of each and every single one of you through our analysis and educational content. We're happy to be back and hope you are all doing great! Speaking of, let's get back to business and catch up a bit with GOLD . On the daily TF the price started to pullback in a sharp way from the beginning of February. Going lower in the 4H timeframe we can see that the price started to lose some bearish momentum and slowed down, eventually breaking the TL highlighted on the chart and creating a consolidation. At the moment the price is starting to pullback from an important order block located around the $1860 level. We have two scenarios in our mind; 1. The price continues to descend towards the 62% FIB Level, having a chance to break the bigger low again, but that remains to be seen. If we get a small correction here the chances to go down to our level increase even more. 2. We can see a slow movement towards the upside that will eventually break the local top again. Please don't jump in, wait for your setups, no matter what, and don't risk more than 1% of your capital. It feels good to be back! I would love to end this on a high note and inspire you guys with a quote from Henry Ford: “When everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it."
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by financialflagship
4
A bullish setup on AUDUSDHey Traders, here is my simple Buy setup on AUDUSD. The pair just successfully completed the inverted Head and Shoulder on the Daily TF, and now that signal a bullish run. On 4H the price retested the demand zone second time which could be argue to be a level that buyer might start throwing some buy orders in, but that is not enough. The market just made a flat bottom (liquidity mark up) and probably going to further the bearish run to retest the Daily OB as indicated below. Or You can look for a long position if the price break above the Multiple level of market structure then use the current resistance are as support after breaking that level. Buyers can look to buy the next retest and target the 0.7200 area.
Long
by Adefxc
9
EUR/HUF A Hidden GemThe EUR/HUF is meeting all of my expectations on the Technicals, Fundamentals, and Sentiment. On the technicals, price is showing a head and shoulders patterns and price looks like it might be able to complete the head portion this year. The reason being is, on the fundamental side, the ECB is struggling to fight inflation, the National Hungarian Bank sticking to maintain the highest interest rates in the EU (at 13%), the NHB is not looking to loosen monetary policy, even if the Hungarian Governments wants them to, and inflation is extremely high at over 25%. Sentiment is very strong for the HUF, with a lot of articles in favor of the HUF. Also the EUR/HUF is a great carry trade, and with the possibility of the NBH possibly raising rates further, could push price down to my price target of 345.
Short
by DollarSaenz
STOP LOSS AS LIFE SAVIOROANDA:XAUUSD Stop-losses prevent large and uncontrollable losses in volatile trades. If you’re not using stop-losses, it’s only a matter of time when a large losing position will get out of control and wipe out most of your trading profits, eventually even your entire account! If you’re serious about staying in the game in the long run and growing your trading account, it’s necessary to use stop-loss orders in every single trade you’re taking. That’s the first rule of this article – Always use stop-losses! Stop-losses also play a major role in risk management. Depending on their stop-loss, traders are calculating what position size to take, how much money to risk on a single trade, how much they’re risking on any single dollar they’re making, and much more . Time Stop As their name suggests, time stops refer to closing a trade after a pre-specified period of time. For example, a trader who is day trading the market could close all of his open trades after the end of the trading day, while swing traders who don’t want to hold their trades over the weekend could simply close all trades by the end of the Friday trading session. Time stops are best combined with other types of stop-loss levels. If your trade is still active by the end of the trading day or ahead of the weekend, you could look to close it manually in that case. Percentage Stop Finally, percentage stops are based on a percentage of your trading account to limit the total risk of a trade. For example, a trader with a $10,000 account who wants to risk 3% of his trading account on a single trade could place a stop-loss at a level that ensures his total potential loss is $300. Some traders might think that percentage stops are a good way to manage and limit losses in the market. However, bear in mind that percentage stops imply placing a stop-loss at an arbitrary level, as long as the total potential loss doesn’t exceed a percentage of the trading account. Much better results can be achieved by combining chart stops with percentage stops, i.e. a trader would place a stop-loss based on an important technical level and manage his total risk by adjusting the position size of the trade. We’ll show you how to do exactly that later in this article . Trailing Stops Trailing stops automatically move the underlying stop-loss level with each tick of the price that goes in your favour. However, if the price reverses and starts to go against you, a trailing stop will stay at its most recent level, limiting your losses or locking in unrealised profits. CONCULUSION : WETHER YOU DO FOREX , STOCKS OR CRYPTO TRADING , STOPLOSS IS IIMPORTANT , AND IT ALWAYS GIVE YOU ANOTHER OPPURTUNITY TO TRADE AGAIN
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by INVESTRONE
Buy EURJPY SW 070223 10.35📌📌Idea Share Buy EURJPY📌📌 Link : 📍📍Open order 142.000 Buy lim 1 141.000 Buy lim 2 140.200 Buy lim 3 139.350 Buy lim 4 138.650 Buy lim 5 137.660 Tp 145.900 Sl 136.800 Warning !!! (Swing trade must be used pending orders) !!!Pending orders should be set up lot size step by step Example (15,000$) Open order 0.1 lot Buy lim 1 0.15 lot Buy lim 2 0.20 lot Buy lim 3 0.25 lot Buy lim 4 0.30 lot Buy lim 5 0. 40 lot Buy lim 6 (last order) = 0.1+0.15+0.2+0.25+0.3 = 1.1 lot Example (3,000$) Open order 0.04 lot Buy lim 1 0.05 lot Buy lim 2 0.06 lot Buy lim 3 0.07 lot Buy lim 4 0.08 lot Buy lim 5 0.10 lot Buy lim 6 (last order) = 0.04+0.05+0.06+0.07+0.08 +0.1 = 0.4 lot !!When any pending orders are open and the profits are covered by loss it is up to your decision.!!
Long
by Maximus_Provider