Tradernoxtreme
# $WORK short #This is hanging off a cliff in a downtrend.
RSI is a little low on long term so shorting does make me a bit nervous.
How about we look for the right short signal on the shorter term (5 min) time frame and then see what happens. Be protective but that bear break looks likely. Could take 2 or 3 days to touch the bottom of the channel again.
You could play long this from from 21.25 based on the 4 hr but I think this is a case of "the trend is your friend."
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IIPR Ebb and flow? Kinda drafting this idea. Might expand on it.
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MJ ETF at the bottom but still needs time to turn. LOST A TON in the last 5 days. LIKE 20%. VERY good price for this but A LOT of MJ stocks are at CRAZY discounts. TLRY CGC CRON NEPT! This has not fallen like them.
... Is money shifting from ETF back to individual names.... Most names seem to be turning a corner at the bottom MAYBE. Not confirmed yet.
WATCH THIS MONDAY for oversold bounce REGARDLESS, but be ready for even LOWER. It can always go lower.
This could be an ebb and flow thing. The ETF goes higher while individual names fall then it changes back. No holding this but maybe short after a bounce if individual names continue up.
Does have a dividend.
$LJCP 6/7/19 --- VERY hot stock setup
TraderNoxtreme here,
Biotech Stock with positive phase 2 results. HOT setup
"La Jolla Pharmaceutical Co. (LJPC) on Thursday reported positive results from the interim analysis of its phase 2 study of LJPC-401 (synthetic human hepcidin) in patients with hereditary hemochromatosis."
Don't know what that is but this setup is fire.
Break out the top of the wedge we get 12% roughly. 12.88 looks to be next potential resistance. Then 13.47 then stronger resistance at 13.86. Break those and who knows.
We also bounced off the 200 SMA on the daily so upside could be magnified OR we just found the top.
Based on the wedge we are forming under it I think it just might break.
Currently the stock is SHORTABLE AS WELL. We will see if it is HTB in the morning.
Break out the bottom of the wedge and we have very low support all the way to 8.88 and even then we don't have solidish support until around 8.16
This is a low float stock as well so it will MOVE FAST. I would not recommend holding.
In fact I would not recommend doing anything with your trades or investments as I do not have the proper certifications to do so.
I do recommend liking this post and subscribing if you wan more like it.
It might be time for Oil and Nat Gas to turn: Watching $GUSHGUSH Reversal?
An idea I'm considering but its a bit complicated to trade this one. 3X ETF containing a bunch of nat gas an oil stocks. Very high correlation with XOP. Watch out for decay if you plan to hold. HONOR YOUR STOP and don't be greedy yet.
Here is a screenshot of the 3 tickers shown in the idea cart.
i.imgur.com
Oil (/CL), Nat Gas (/NG), and XOP have all been in sold downtrends for quite some time now. We are entering winter (elevating factor). Trade tensions are reaching a breaking point (over reaction might be ending, new reaction could come soon). Gush has slowed its decent and is possibly reversing along with 3 other key charts.
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NIO 7/9/19: Successful trade recap. Gap Fill ContinuationTraderNoxtreme here for a quick trade recap for you all.
This one pretty much fell in my lap which is what you want in trading. This being said, the more you search for setups the more trades fall into your lap.
Last night a YouTube video alerted me to a small gap setup on NIO. I quickly charted it and threw it on my watchlist.
Premarket NIO pushed up into the gap (missing the gap fill by a tiny bit).
On market open NIO pulled back then pushed up through the gap. I had an alert set at 3.61 to let me know it was time to see what would happen as I would have played it short if we clearly rejected.
What happened was we formed a few 2 min candles of support right on 3.61 and then we got one strong confirmation candle which prompted my entry at 3.66. We then pulled back a little and found support at 3.61 (the dip under was a bit sketch but I held through because we had EMA 26 and I knew we had already filled the gap twice so there was some faith involved).
After we got through the moment of panic, we pushed back up and I just kept a mental stop at EMA26 until we broke through 3.66 and it was clear sailing. I took off 1/4th of my position at 3.76 to give myself a buffer just in case we tested 3.61 again but it was not needed.
We ran all the way up to 3.90 and I put in a sell at 3.98 thinking 4 psychological would be a good place to get out since nearly ever time frame was oversold at that point.
We pulled back a little and then I noticed there was a seller who was throwing massive amounts of shares on the ask at 3.85.
I waited for an hr but when I saw the hourly candle close as a indecision doji at the top of an uptrend, a big buy volume spike on the 2 min that could not break through and all important time frames were oversold or close to it, I made the choice to exit my remaining shares at 3.85.
Glad I did!
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BTC: WILL HISTORY REPEAT??? TraderNoxtreme here.
This was just too hot NOT to post.
This is a 2 hour chart comparing the run up in 2017 to 20k to where we are now. I traced the price action and marked the indicators. Price levels (lines) are the same and I scaled our current chart to fit the price levels on the 17 chart.
Kinda close...
BIG TAKE AWAY
We could run to 20k in the next 28 HOURS if history repeats... Its not identical but there are similarities. One HUGE difference is that we are not in blue sky breakout (not making ATHs) so there is resistance where there was not previously.
THIS IS NOT A DRILL! This is how crypto happens!
Trade or invest how you do. It is more likely this will NOT play out but having gone through 17 glued to crypto this feels a lot like it did then. Disbelief about where we are and where we have come from.
The media will undoubtedly start talking about 20k and beyond BTC tomorrow.
This is simply me pointing out a startling observation and trying to warn about how QUICKLY these markets can move.
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APHA Swing Trade RecapTraderNoxtreme with a quick, successful, swing trade recap.
We dumped hard on APHA (which was already pretty deep in a downtrend) during the first 30 minutes of the trading day friday.
This brought our 1 HR RSI to 20 and our 4 hr RSI to 31. I wanted to wait for 30 RSI on the 4 hour but after seeing 11 5 min candles with consistent bull volume and getting back within the lower VWap I decided that this was likely the volume climax of our downtrend and we should get a more significant bounce considering how much ground APHA has lost on the longer term time frames. I also thought, with how quickly we bounced back up into the VWap, it is unlikely we would drop straight down to form a lower low compared to 6.25 being that the 1hr came of a pretty extreme oversold levels and the 4 hr was already almost oversold.
I entered right before another small dip (see the wick there) but was confident that I had made a good choice as RSI was back oversold on that wick.
APHA was in a pretty strong uptrend the rest of the day after that. There was also good strength into the end of the day so I decided to hold through the weekend expecting the strength to continue and it did. Looming CGC earnings did make this a higher risk hold then it would have been otherwise but it worked out.
My exit was late. I literally had a sell at 7.22 which I let be for over an hour when the 1hr RSI was overbought but bulls just ran out of gas and could not fill it. Once the stock became weak at the end of the day I had to chase the price down and eventually market sell adding 5 cents of slippage to my exit which ended up being 7.05 unfortunately.
What prompted my exit was the fact that we rejected for the 50 MA on the daily near the end of the day after two strong bull days. If we turn around and break the 50sma on the daily tomorrow I will consider re-entering expecting a test of the 200sma on the 4 hour and then a potential test of our 7.54, 7.68 and 7.98 resistance levels before we have some good room to run and even a gap to fill.
I expect we will make a higher low around 6.91 before we get that continuation IF we get continuation.
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ITHUF 6/14/19 : BIG bounce play (longer term play)TraderNoxtreme calling out what looks like a good entry.
MJ stock
Looking between 3 and 2.65 as entry if we get there before trend reversal.
ITHUF has dropped about 51% in about 3 months and about 42% since the 23rd of April.
Related to earnings miss on 5/30/19 (appears to be the reason for this leg down):
"The company reported Q1 revenue of $9.6 million, a huge 4,166.7% jump from the $225,000 reported in the prior-year period. This total also reflected a 384% quarter-over-quarter increase, and iAnthus easily topped the average analysts' Q1 revenue estimate of $2.78 million.
iAnthus posted a GAAP net loss in the first quarter of $18.3 million, or $0.15 per share. This was much worse than the $645,000, or $0.01 per share, reported in the prior-year period. It also missed the average analysts' estimate of a loss of $0.07 per share.
However, the company's adjusted EBITDA trended in a positive direction. iAnthus announced an adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.1 million in Q1. This reflected an improvement from the adjusted EBITDA loss of $6.5 million reported in the prior quarter."
"Significantly higher spending. The company increased its head count with the MPX acquisition. It's also done a lot of internal hiring."
Company is growing fast and should be announcing new "Be" store opening in NY in "Fall."
Just hired some big players to operations, marketing and legal.
This would be a longer-term swing. Perhaps a qtr or more depending on the momentum of the move up when it comes. RSI is 20 on the daily (lower now) and 30 on the weekly. Medium risk trade but the sector as a whole has been pulling back so I feel that a negative earnings surprise with overall sector weakness might be providing an optimal entry in the very near future.
Not financial advice as I don’t have the proper certifications to provide you with that.
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$NEPT 5/30/19: Prove it bulls!TraderNoxtreme here with a quick $NEPT analysis per request,
Let's jump right in.
$NEPT had a bearish short term and bullish to bearish mid-term turn.
This being said we have a clear cup and handle formation for our May price action.
MONDAY will be KEY in determining what to expect in June.
BEAR case
- If we get a gap down on Monday the cup and handle pattern would pretty much invalidate (if it hasn't already since we have seen a more significant retrace on the handle). If we gap down, I would expect a test of our previous support at 3.97. If we break 3.97 I would expect we would find support between 3.83 and 3.76. There seems to be a lot of support below that.
- MacD on the daily and 4 hr chart is trying to make a bearish cross. Leaning to bear continuation.
- RSI in a downtrend on the daily, 4hr but still in the 50s (neutral).
Bull case
- We have a tentative break of our short-term downtrend line (handle of our cup). If we stay flat or gap up Monday, I will be looking for the cup and handle confirmation which would swing us back up to 4.70ish. We have a nice green gap up after hrs indicating this could indeed be what happens BUT after-hours trading is very unreliable to take it as a grain of salt.
- We have a solid RSI bounce right off oversold on the 1 hr time frame indicating bulls were just taking a break because we have been forming higher high peaks since march.
- MacD is also curling back up to make a bull cross on the 1 hr and might be rejecting the bear cross on the 4 hour. Weak support of a bull case here but it is weak at best.
- Bullish cross off the 50 and 200 SMA on the 1hr two days ago and also a bull cross of these moving averages on the 1d char back on the 23rd. We also have all the moving averages squeezed together right at our current decision point on the 1 hr. In this case, I think this adds to our case for bulls reversing the short-term trend but under normal circumstances this indicates the move we get will likely be explosive in whatever direction we go.
Conclusion:
If we open Monday flat or gap up, I am expecting continuation up to 4.70 potentially, or higher. 4.70 stand out to me because the uptrend line on our HH peaks meets there nicely. (I do see our 4.37 peak did not touch but it would if I use candle bodies so I am giving it the benefit of the doubt here)
Else
We gap down Monday. It is likely we will retest 3.97 (or open there) and continue down to look for support between 3.83 and 3.76. There is a ton of previous price action for support down here but this stock has a history of setting lower highs and lower lows as it bounces down through previous support levels so depending on your time horizon be cautious if these levels break because we might go through another extended period of consolidation.
I am also leaving out news completely here which is a BIG part to the MJ story (it’s a hype market). Being said, I feel that the charts tells us when news releases will come as it seems they often come right when technicals indicate a shift or a catalyst is needed for continuation/confirmation. Right now seems to be a perfect time for a bullish story to hit and confirm the bull hypothesis.
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LTC JUNE 2019. The Time Has Come.TraderNoxtreme Here,
Well perhaps the time has come. We have reached a SERIOUS indecision point after 2.5 months of upside. The gains have been huge.
Lets be real.
This could really be the top of the new bull market... We expect a lot out of this space. We do not have to go back to ATH no matter how much it seems like we should. The HYPE is fierce in this sector. Some profit is better than none right?
Let's take a look at Litecoin. Bitcoins sidekick who now has a slot machine, a few forks, and an add in UFC.
ATH is 420. Yes, that's right, 420.
So we made it 28.5% of the way there. But we got some HUGE gains percentage wise. 432%!!!! I had to measure it twice and do the math on paper just to be sure.
Let's say this is the top and we head back down. Often you get a second smaller bounce after such a giant one.
What is the game plan then?
Well.
For me, I would be pretty much all in well before we hit the December low of 22 dollars because I do believe we came out of the bear market. We won't know for sure until consolidation is finished and we make a new high.
But there is more to it than that.
We can pull profit out AND have more coin invested then we started with. We can compound our profits if we swing this right.
For me it looks like this. Although that big recovery arrow might be a little optimistic. I am thinking that the halving pump might kick in at some point soon.
The drop could also play out a lot faster than this chart shows but I would rather it doesn't. I would like to see a controlled descent (like what the chart shows) before we get a new high as this would create more confidence that we have finished our bear cycle once we reach 160 ;) . I don't think the downside target is too extreme considering a lot of folks are probably still rattled from 2018.
Stay calm and follow your plan.
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$GUSH ; Could this be it?TraderNoxtreme here. $GUSH has been falling HARD the last two weeks roughly and people have been longing this hard on the way down. The media is now really starting to HYPE the trade war which is leading to increased uncertainty in oil/nat gas. $GUSH is a 3X ETF that has a bunch of oil and NG companies in it.
It just bounced off a 3 YEAR low this week at around 5.90...
Trump just tweeted this
"BIG NEWS! As I promised two weeks ago, the first shipment of LNG has just left the Cameron LNG Export Facility in Louisiana. Not only have thousands of JOBS been created in USA, we’re shipping freedom and opportunity abroad!"
i.imgur.com
Oversold on the hrly, 4hr, and daily!
I will likely double down at the pink line if we break it first thing tomorrow.
$SOLY --- HOT STOCKMedical device company Soliton Inc. (NASDAQ:SOLY) has received FDA 510(k) approval for its acoustic wave device for dermal tattoo clearing.
Ran 148% today and about 59% so far after hours.
Support around 13.70 and 10.85 ish for a bounce play.
HTB so not shortable for most unfortunately.
If we maintain current price we will open over ATH which would have me looking for solid continuation after some initial profit taking.
HIGH RISK/REWARD PLAY here!
Roughly 5m share float with 14.6m shares outstanding so it will move very fast.
LTC 5/28/19: "Getting ready..."Hello Traders,
Here is this week’s $LTC perspective. I’m going to shorten these up so that I can provide a wider focus for you all. I welcome discussion and suggestions.
Litecoin finally took center stage the last few days. I have clearly noticed a trend where when one of our top five coins shows weakness or strength during a run or drop, it almost seems to inevitably correct this in short order. Compare the top 5 and balance your accumulation accordingly while waiting for the next move. I suggest long bias right now unless you are in the trenches full time with me.
I had noticed that LTC was looking very weak while trying to hold support after the last leg up where we hit 107 and rejected back to 84. It looked like we were going to fall back a level and the only thing that kept me from dumping my last position was the fact that BTC looked quite solid. Sure enough, bulls showed up in a big way during this last leg up and they have looked quite strong in their support between 116 and 114 since. I was ready with a stop buy at the 107 bull break and that position is now sitting with a small profit stop loss. I am playing each break this way because we are on the verge of turning our long-term trend bullish and I want to have a good chunk of my portfolio in a longer-term hold if/when we reach 50% of ATH.
This will allow me to simply focus on determining when to fully exit for our next bear cycle. So, if we drop, some of my positions might stop out but that’s ok because they will be in profit and I hope to reload them lower.
Now let’s address the elephant in the room; When we correct, how bad will it be?
I am not a fortune teller but I can tell you what the chart is saying to me in terms of classical TA.
We have a clear uptrend channel that has about a 30% range from top to bottom.
If we correct from here, we should expect to lose our last breakout move and touch 104 at a minimum (about 9%) otherwise I would not even call it consolidation. Even though 100 should provide a good psychological support, I feel that since we have run so hard for the last two months this level would likely break due to panic selling. This would have us touching 92 (about 18.5%). If we stop here that would be ideal but this support is light which makes me think we will continue down finding even stronger support at 84 (about 25%). This area has very strong support and is near the bottom of our current uptrend support line. Breaking this would have me a bit concerned and looking to the weekly chart for support. On the weekly we can see support at 74 and then a very strong support at 60 (47% roughly). I think we would need some bad news to get all the way down here but if we did, I would be aggressively buying if the news was not all that bad in my perspective.
Since the RSI is 71 on the weekly, $60 is entirely possible if we get a strong bad news catalyst. If we correct naturally, as markets do, then I would expect 84. If we only correct to 100 and get continuation to the upside from there, I will be looking at ATH targets for later this year but I will also be expecting another pull back sooner rather than later.
Let’s not forget we are working on our 5th VERY bullish weekly candle since our last pull back and that pull back was about 30%. We are also just hitting solid price action from 2018 where it would make sense for us to correct a bit.
Now let’s entertain the inner moon boy for a moment because I think a lot of us are feeling it right now. From this price area we shot STRAIGHT UP in 17. Literally 1 huge green month took us to ATH at 420. Currently we have ANOTHER strong bull flag with a tightening range and an incredibly bullish run up. The trend is heavily in favor of continued upside at this point. Our breakout level is 122 and our breakdown level is 110. We have a strong center line at 114 and bulls are buying the dips with vigor (this is fading a little). BTC is being mentioned in the news again, we have multiple ETFs trying to get through SEC, LTC halving is in 2 months, and with a pullback then a higher high all trends will become bullish. The stock market it scary at the moment with all the political turmoil and we are seeing some notable weakness (not panic but it does feel like the floor could fall out). Money could come over to crypto, OR, if we get an ETF ... that could lead to a run like we have never seen before as money flocks for hedge, excitement, and fomo all at once.
I could write pages about all the bullish indicators we have on our daily and weekly charts but I am not going to.
I also want to mention that Charlie Lee made a Tweet yesterday. “Getting ready...” is what he said and LTC will likely announce lighting support shortly. Charlie has nailed tops and bottoms with consistency and they are usually marked by tweets like this. Its hard not to be bullish right now even KNOWING that consolidation is VERY likely soon. This may indeed be the start of the next crypto lunar adventure but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
My strategy currently:
- Stop buy breakout of tightening ranges. Placing stop losses 1 support level below once they fill and then moving those stops into small profit once continuation occurs. (typically working off the 15 min or 1 hr chart)
- Looking for 12 and 26 EMA crosses on the 5,15- and 60 min time frames for quick trades.
- Not scalping. We are due for a larger pullback and I want to have more cash for accumulation on consolidation when that happens.
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LTC IN DEPTH 5/20/19: Bulls showing weakness.Hello my trader friends,
TraderNoxtreme back with you weekly Litecoin in depth. I hope you are ripping profit out of this market left and right or nailing the swings. Please like and subscribe if you want me to keep doing these.
LTC Weekly 5/20/19: Not a repeat.
Welp, our historical comparison broke when we hit 107+ last week which is great for bulls. We are no longer looking at the same pattern because this gave us a higher high rather than a higher low. This means that we can keep an eye on this pattern but even if the price does spike in 4 more weeks (including our current week) this would NOT be a repeat of history. This being said, we have now seen 3 very strong green weeks in a row and now we have 1 pretty strong red day on the new weekly candle. Our RSI is sitting pretty high at 62, but it still has room for more upside. MacD is showing the obvious bull momentum but the strength is decreasing, So, logic says, that we should pull back this week. Bulls would like to see a pullback hold the bottom of our previous weekly candle at about 84.70 BUT downside potential is large now and a pull back all the way back to around 64.50 would still maintain our bullish weekly uptrend. I don’t feel we will pull back this far but it can happen and we should not become blindly bullish here. We have been VERY bullish action for a few months but we saw extremely bearish action all of 2018. I can now officially say that our mid term trend is bullish and our long term is debatably bullish as well (we need a confirmed test). Let’s get into the shorter-term time frames and see what things look like.
LTC 1D 5/20/19: 100! AAAAAND its gone.
OMG 100! So excited I forgot to sell. Jk. My initial reaction to this daily chart now is that there is real pullback potential here. When we spiked back up to a new higher high at 107.57 4 days ago our RSI went all the way to 76. This is the second or third highest we have seen in 2019. From this high we pulled back SHARPLY 21.93%! Does this mean we are doomed for a red week? No, but it does make it a lot more likely that we will see a lower high (which we did) then a higher low (we are working on this now). Bulls want to hold 87.44 to maintain this tightening daily range. If we lose that then we will be looking at 84.46 and 75.55 as our next two major support levels. If we break below these by the end of the week I will become concerned about a weekly downtrend. It might be premature to talk about but its important to stay real here and understand there is a good possibility this was simply a higher low on the monthly which I don’t break down in these in depths. Our RSI is currently 62 and Mac D looks like it might try and test a bearish cross. One more thing I see here is that we have some pretty strong overhead resistance now between 94 and 96 so even if we are able to hold 90 as our lower high, we would likely see a higher low around 95. Sorry bulls but your going to need to prove that you still have the strength here. One bullish thing I do notice is that bulls have been holding support very well on these sharp pull backs to make sure the weekly uptrend stays intact and we have some nice support built up. On the daily, besides the two supports at 84.46 and 75.55 we also have the 26EMA adding to our 84.46 support and our 50 MA at 81. This 81 support also lines up well with the bottom of our previous bull channel which seems to still be providing support even though it has been broken twice now.
I need to do a major overhaul on this chart.
LTC 4hr 5/20/19: Plotting our next move in secret.
HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern behold! This time frame has me concerned as well for bulls. We have a clear as day head and shoulder pattern that, if confirmed, would have us looking for our higher low on the weekly for sure. It seems unlikely that this pattern will confirm BUT what will you do if it does? Make a plan for weekly and monthly consolidation because it is becoming likely. So now that I hope you are sufficiently concerned; Our RSI on the 4hr is nice at 47. Our MacD seems like it might reject the bear cross it is facing. I also happen to know we just got a golden cross on the 1 hr (50 sma bull cross the 200 sma) so I think we will reject the bear MacD cross on the 4 hr. Right now, our price is sitting right on top of our previous bullish channel so bulls need to show up to defend this before the bears can complete (not confirm) our head and shoulder pattern. If that pattern completes, we will likely have a fair number of people step back just in case the pattern confirms. Lastly, we have a new overhead resistance trend line that could give us our new upper target. At this point, 113 is looking like a hopium pipe dream but if we negate the head and shoulder pattern, we could reach fomo level 11. For the last day and a half it feels like the bulls and bears have returned to their hideouts to plan their next move.
LTC 1hr 5/20/19: One very bullish sign.
We have a recent golden cross on the 1 hour. About 9 days ago this led to a 25% run. Unfortunately, this is where the similarities end and the differences begin. Before we were in an uptrend at the end of over a week of consolidation. Our RSI was high at 82 and now its lowish at 43. Our MacD had also bull crossed shortly before our golden cross. This time we need a fair amount of bull volume just to attempt to cross the MacD bullish. So, while its possible we could see bullish price action from this golden cross I will be remaining cautious of our large head and shoulders unless we see at least a few percent of upside movement in the short term. Right now, risk is not favorable to reward in the near term but as you can see by the size of some of our bars, this can shift on a dime. We have the squeeze of ALL moving averages paired with a golden cross which is very bullish but these moving averages could act as MORE resistance.
Closing Note:
While I am leaning bearish this week lets recognize that we are now walking the line between crazy upside potential and a continued bullish fight. Being crypto enthusiasts, we want to see success reflected in price and it’s hard not to lose touch with the reality that price is simply how much someone will pay for your coins NOT how much you think they are worth. All the media outlets are pumping out positive article after article, Consensus parties and pitches look so fun and exciting, partnerships are blossoming and bearing fruit, real adoption is taking place and price is booming because of it. Is this all a premature hype rally from the bottom? Let’s not forget the bottom was only 3 months ago (roughly) and that price was more than 65% below us. Look at the monthly chart and decide for yourself what happens next.
Related to the LTC halving; We are not yet (and may never) seeing the extreme hype run related to the LTC halving August 6th but next month on the 6th would be 3 months from halving day… Personally, I feel that the run is going to happen because of the supply and demand ratio shift. This being said, I would expect to see more strength out of LTC comparative to other coins during the last few months. LTC started off in Feb looking like it was going to outrun the other coins without much effort but since then it seems to be struggling to keep up and BCH is actually outpacing it by a fair margin. I can’t help but speculate that miners noticed that LTC was running HARD and decided to take advantage of this premium before cutting off their selling leading into Aug 6th. So, let’s assume LTC miners are selling coins back into the markets to take advantage of the strength. Would they want to crush the weekly uptrend? NO, I don’t believe they would. Short traders who still think this is 2018 want this but not the miners. So, although we might see a red week, I think miners will be quick to stop selling if LTC goes weaker than the pack. They don’t want to hurt the potential hype spike that we might see. I expect social media and news outlet chatter to really pick up about the halving soon. If we see this happen then I expect our price to climb with the hype. I will be watching google trend data and twitter mention data for signs that the hype is picking up. If we don’t see this social narrative pick up soon then I will begin thinking that the halving for LTC may be a nonevent.
Lastly, a good warning for newer traders; if LTC breaks 113 and holds on the monthly… We pretty much shot straight to ATH in 2017 from there so be prepared. It was one GIANT green monthly candle that COLAPSED on the very next candle. The only thing worse then missing the spike is buying in on the wrong side! DO NOT hold a bag bought on the wrong side of a huge monthly green candle unless you are prepared to hold for a year plus. Good luck my friends. Keep you mind clear and perspective balanced as we are walking a line between insanity and devastation at this point.
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BCH IN DEPTH 5/13/19: Ludicrous Mode Active.Hello traders,
TraderNoxtreme back with you weekly Bitcoin Cash in depth. Please like this idea if you agree. Subscribe if you want more and comment if you have something to say.
Sentiment:
With the rally yesterday most of the chatter seems to be about the next rally, when to buy more in a bull market, and when you should take profit. There is also a ton of positive development and partner news happening because consensus. Overall it seems like kid in a candy store mentality. I’m a bit concerned we could get blindsided here. Binance was hacked like 4 days ago NYAG is still investigating tether. Oh, how quickly we forget.
BCH Weekly 5/13/19: Ludicrous Mode Active.
After the impressive rally yesterday, I am thinking that we could indeed confirm our bull flag from the April rally. This target feels pretty crazy to me but I have made what seemed like outlandish predictions on BCH before and it confirmed them to my surprise. This time I’m just going to go with it and call 475 as our upside target. Being that BCH tends to overshoot everything I would not be surprised to see us run all the way up to 638 and then pull back quickly.
This being said we hit the top of our gap from the SV fork and bounced off pretty hard which I expected in the moment and used to accumulate a little more. I also caught two 3% scalp trades during the insane volatility that immediately followed. Our RSI the high side of neutral at 56. MacD is showing clear bullish momentum. We bounced off our 50ma, which happened to coincide with our old price action at the top of our gap. A break of 383.09 could signal our next leg up and weekly RSI says we have room BUT keep in mind that this is still the highest we have ever been on the weekly RSI. We have a clear bull flag break out on the weekly and most indicators bullish. We could pull back to around 360 and remain bullish. And as we speak, we are breaking 383 WOOT!
BCH 1D 5/13/19: Holy Volatility Bat Man
33%, 15%, 15%. These are the ranges of the last 3 candles on the daily and todays will likely increase. I have been scalping and accumulating this one.
Golden cross clearly signaled early start of this bull run on the daily. SUCH A CLEAR SIGNAL and my chart was on the money.
RSI is oversold at 78 but we went all the way up to 90 during the April run up so I think there might be some room. Stay out if you cannot actively manage your positions. MacD showing increasing confidence of a bull breakout. Our 26EMA is showing nice support on the 1d. Seems like its giving us multiple solid entry points. Take note of this pattern for accumulation in the future. VERY bullish chart here
BCH 4hr 5/13/19: BCH on Fire.
Again, Golden cross gave the perfect signal for the start of our recent bull run. Currently we have very large trading ranges. Holding 383 keeps me bullish; coming down to 363 makes me cautious; testing 340 makes me nervous. All of our moving averages are quite a way away but this should be expected after a run. RSI is 74 which is oversold but still quite reasonable considering we have gone as high as 94. MacD shows some uncertainty if we will keep running or not. Currently, we have another very bullish chart.
A few things stand out here that add to our mid term bullish outlook. We now have formed a new bullish uptrend line. We held our previous uptrend line starting BEFORE April perfectly. And of course, we broke through the top of our bull flag with notable volume and conviction.
I expect 400 psychological resistance will hold us up a little. We might come back down to 383 and/or test 363 but hopefully we will hold there and continue up
BCH 1hr 5/13/19: Hard to find an entry
On the 1hr we can well that 383 hold is best 363 hold is good and 340 hold is needed or we will then be looking for a higher low on the daily chart. Possibly around 310. RSI 74 and MacD showing breakout but we already know this. For the life of me I can not see anything on this chart that would signal a buy other than the 50 and 200 MA cross and maybe bullishly crossing 54 on the RSI.
Looks like we have a new ascending channel.
Closing Note:
I have been adding a little when 15min RSI goes below 41. Not investment advice. We are running HARD but we could flip at any min and head down to make our daily higher low. BE CAUTIOUS. If you’re not able to watch then wait for the daily higher low as we are likely going to pull back HARD if we keep running like this.
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LTC IN DEPTH 5/13/19: A Tiptoeing BullHello traders,
TraderNoxtreme back with you weekly Litecoin in depth. Please like this idea if you agree. Subscribe if you want more and comment if you have something to say.
LTC Weekly 5/13/19: Will History Hold.
I am still keeping a close eye on this historical correlation. Although we did end up with a BIG green candle to finish the week, we were sitting slightly red on the week right before so we might be a day or two ahead of schedule. This being said our next move will be a pretty harsh downward move if we continue following this historical trend. Current weekly RSI is now 64 and it was 63 in 2017. We have also lifted off our moving averages quite a bit so I’m thinking we will see some consolidation soon but maybe not till late this week or next. I’m kind of speculating here though because the only thing I see in the chart that would indicate this is the fact that we lifted well off our moving averages. We formed a lower high on the most recent run at 96 so our correlation is still valid but if we continue up and break 100, our historical correlation will be invalidated because we will then have established a new pattern at that point. I would likely still keep and eye on it but it would no longer match HH , HL, LH, HL, Breakout.
LTC 1D 5/13/19: 100 within reach.
Our most recent rally took us all the way back to 100s door step. It is worth noting that the rally was mainly BTCs rally. Alts just got invited to the party. This is important because we had finally started seeing some alts make moves without BTCs permission. Not this time. Bulls should be watching the BTC pairs for their coins though because they are likely at a low. What I expect to happen is BTC to take a break around 8500, everything will consolidate, but LTC/BTC should increase. Getting a bit ahead of myself here.
In any case, RSI is sitting pretty at 67 right on top of what seems to be our bullish support line. A break of this could mean WEEKLY higher low so be ready to take profit if you don’t want to hold through that. MacD shows bulls held and are now gaining momentum. Once we broke our previous descending support I added a new one which we promptly broke as well. Bulls are clearly wanting to push LTC higher. We just had the 13,26,50 moving averages squeeze together as we started this bull run. Same thing happened on BCH but the 200 was also there.
A thought: Halving in August; If I was a miner, I would stop selling the coins I mined leading up to this as there will likely be at least SOME hype rally. I would dump my coins on the rally.
LTC 4hr 5/13/19: We are lagging a bit.
Believe it or not LTC is lagging a bit on its run. BCH, ETH, BTC, and others are all having more bullish runs during the last few days. Either we are still filling up the rocket fuel on LTC or our last rally was a little over the top and now we need to let the others catch up a little. There have been several times I have considered taking profit on LTC but so far, I have not. I believe that our break of 100 is not going to be something you want to miss so I have just been slowly adding on dips. It is interesting to see that our old channel is still proving some relevance even though it has broken a few times now. Seems like there are algos using those lines as signals for buying and selling.
Moving averages are all nice and close RSI is 63. MacD shows that this rally was almost cut short as I was saying above. There just has not been as much power behind the LTC bulls on this last move as there is on other coins. This being said, we have tons of support nearby. We have all the moving averages at 86,83,78,75 roughly. We have historical support at 86.73, 83.81, 81.54, 78.29 and on. We have the top of our channel and probably more. Point being, I really can’t see this falling back down more then 15% if it falls hard because of some bad news catalyst or something. I would be very surprised if we broke 75 in the next week but I could see a daily lower high around 80 if we don’t break through 100 soon/first.
LTC 1hr 5/13/19: Tightening range before???
It all leads down to this! We have a tightening range on the hourly. HH = 96.10 HL = 83.09 LH = 94.37 HL = 83.35 and so on. Currently a bull break would occur if we break 93.46 and a bear break would be 84.46. I expect us to continue to tighten as it seems that BTC has stopped running for now. I expect we will break 100 if we bull break this pattern with some conviction. RSI is at 60 and bulls have control looking at the MacD. I’m leaning bullish if you can already tell but I will likely sell and reload lower if we break this pattern bearish.
Closing Note:
LTC HAD a lot of bullish hype going. Its quieting down and those that push LTC seem to have a quiet unshakable confidence. To be honest, I kind of feel it too. LTC is smaller but a heavy hitter. BTC standing beside it ready to jump in and knock anyone out that LTC can’t handle. Lol. It’s not the underdog, more or a scrappy anime sidekick.
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BMMJ. READY FOR A BREAKLooks like an ideal trade setup ready to break in the very near future. Stock in NTB on TD so hope it can be played either way.
44% downside 54% upside. Not concerned with which way it goes if it stays NTB.
DO NOT HOLD overnight.
finance.yahoo.com
1.25 CAD = .93 USD.
I'm leaning to short and lines up with support.
Slam Dunk?
LTC IN DEPTH 5/6/19: Equilibrium with a Good Trading Range.Hello traders,
TraderNoxtreme back with you weekly Litecoin in depth. Please like this idea if you agree. Subscribe if you want more.
Sentiment:
Crypto seems to have shaken off the news from last week.
Ill be honest; I took the week off last week from my in depths because the fud was making me doubt what the charts were telling me. It was a mistake to not act on what I was seeing against my emotions because I would have come out with a good profit. I simply could not ignore the news because the underlying issue Tether poses is terrifying to me at its core. Every time I would write that something looked bullish in the chart, fear would blot it out. As traders we are supposed to take note of news and move on but I didn’t feel I could give you an unbiased view.
It seems that the fud screen has pretty much cleared in the chats, youtubes, and other media outlets at this point but for me; Tether is a ticking time bomb in crypto as a whole and I will be keeping close tabs on it.
Why I am concerned?
Although complicated, the news is pretty straight forward. IFinex (the Tether printer attached to Bitfinex) was hit with a legal case by the NY General Attorney saying that they did not disclose an 850 million dollar loss. IFinex says they did but the loss is real. Funds were seized by an offshore bank back in Aug 2018 (I think). In itself this is not all that big a deal but let me explain the base fear (The big deal) behind this. I know there is A LOT more to the Tether, IFinex, NY AG, drama so forgive me if I’m messing up some facts or leaving things out. Put on your tinfoil hat for a second, its story time.
What if a large chunk of the money we have been told is coming into Bitcoin is actually monopoly money? What if an unregulated player in the space (there is no regulation in this space) has been printing fake money and funneling that money into BTC since 2017. Being that BTC has been base pair for most coins in the past this would equate to the entire market being built on stilts. Now, what if it was announced that Tether truly is not backed at all even though IFinex is now saying it is 74% backed (this is a change from the previous 100%). Honestly, this will scare a lot of money out of the space IMO. The market could brush a reality like this off but I am not wanting to bet on it.
I think it is very unlikely we will get an announcement that Tether is not backed any time soon if ever but this, to me, is a major danger in the space in general. Exchanges might simply be running crypto prices up for their own gains. As we see more and more stable coins hit the markets the chances get higher and higher that one of them could simply be monopoly money.
Comment below on this.
Lets move on:
LTC Weekly: Please let it be real!
This chart leans me bullish simply because of the correlation. We cannot deny the correlation between August 2017 price action and April 2019. We have our initial spike then three weeks of pull back. Then 1 week green. If this continues, we should have a slightly red week this week followed by a nice green week next week. We have a 57 RSI which is IDENTICAL to 2017 again. This chart has me pretty excited because if history continues to follow then we are in for a massive run starting in 6 WEEKS. That is the one you do not want to miss or be short on. I see us testing back down to the 12EMA at about 66.50 and then bouncing back up close to our current level this week.
LTC 1D: Equilibrium after triangle break.
The Tether news dropped us 20% on LTC but we made a strong and swift recovery that briefly hit the level we fell from. The bounce broke the downward sloping resistance, gained the 50MA as support and put us back in our previous, mid-term, bullish channel. I was following an RSI downtrend during the dump looking for an oversold bounce entry but we didn’t get oversold on the daily. Price does seem to be respecting the bottom of our bullish channel loosely but I don’t expect it to continue. I believe we are entering a tightening range that will last through the week. Our current base of support is 65.41 and our breakout price is 81.54. RSI is neutral at 50. We did break our RSI downtrend from last week so this is a good indicator that the tether fud has passed for now. MacD looking to make a bullish cross. We have the 50 MA helping the bulls out as support. We currently have roughly 10% to the upside and 10% to the downside in our equilibrium range (pink lines). Looking for a higher low around 73 to better confirm we are entering a tightening range.
Make no mistake; We are neutral at what could potentially be just over the top of a midterm bullish trend after a 15-month brutal bear market. Bulls have room to the downside to maintain their mid-term dominance and it is taking very little volume to move this market. All it would take is some bulls to move out of the way and we could drop fast. Keep an eye out for BTC to lose its strength because it could signal the bulls are getting out of the way.
LTC 4hr: Bulls Battle for Control.
You can clearly see the bulls battling to keep control of the mid term trend. Loss of 65.41 would be very bearish but a break of 81.54 would be very bullish and could indicate we are going to test 100 again. RSI is again neutral at 51. MacD is bearish but curling back to try a bullish cross again. I see us testing back down to 73.55 or 70.48 then bouncing back to 78 where we likely reject temporarily. This fits with what I was seeing on the weekly. You will see some red lines showing a potential reverse head and shoulders also.
LTC 1 hr: Short Term Trading Within a Range
We have a bit of a bullish outlook on the 1 hr. RSI at 58, bullish MacD cross with some angle on it. We have what looks to be strong support at 73.50. We also have our previous bullish channel bottom as support and the 50 MA at 54.80. A retest of 78.29 looks likely but I anticipate a lower high rather then a breakout unless we get a positive news catalyst. Another perspective could be we are forming a reverse head and shoulders which would also fit our weekly hypothesis.
Closing Note:
LTC is great for classical TA. MOST of my lines on this chart have not changed in weeks or even months and the price just goes from range to range. When you see things like this in your charts you know you are getting the basics of support and resistance TA right. Predicting where we go next is where TA becomes and art. This is where the “magic formulas” are being sold. There are literally millions of methods people use to predict the next move from these base ranges and the reality is that strategies will perform differently from one person to the next because trades are decisions made in the moment. You can and should pre plan ahead of time but in the end, it is my opinion, you need to have some flexibility in your plan. Execution needs to be based on what the chart is showing you at the moment. LEARN SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE TA then develop your own strategy based on what you see.
Hopefully you enjoyed this week’s analysis. If you found it helpful, give it a LIKE, if you want more, SUBSCRIBE. If you want to team up please comment below or PM me. If you want me to do in depth on another coin or stock ticker please comment below.
STNE for a swing or a long?STNE has my interest for a swing coming into earnings. Earnings could be the catalyst for gap fill but could also dump it if the competition has hurt them. More research needed. Earning 5/19
Target 34. Hope for gap fill before earnings which would have me taking profit before earnings.
New solid base of support and confirmed daily uptrend.
Golden cross on shorter term time frames, price also using 50 and 200 as new support on short term time frames.
Looking for break of 27.60 and continuation early next week (ideally break of 27.85). This paired with bullish MacD cross on the daily would likely have me entering quarter position.
Positive analyst outlook and Buffet just got in I believe. (DYOR)
Potential good long entry also as there is massive upside potential for STNE if they are able to gain a foothold in this market. Compared to PayPal and square.
Hold rating for most analyst.
LACK OF PRICE HISTORY and 47% up on the year means extra caution.
Not trading or investing advise. Please do your own research and share your thoughts below.
Comment because you can :)
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LTC In Depth 4/22/19: Holding the line before we push back.HELLO,
Trader Noxtreme back with you weekly in depth LTC analysis. PLEASE like, subscribe, and comment. Trying to shorten these up a bit so let’s get to it.
Weekly – History is our guide… Until its not.
This chart has me a bit excited honestly but I will do my best to remain objective. We have done pretty much exactly what I was expecting since my first in depth for April.We can squeeze another small red week without breaking our 74ish resistance. We needed to cool off daily/Weekly RSI before we could consider long positions as traders and right now the setup looks pretty good. This being said our RSI is still at 60 so I hope to see that get a little lower (50 or so) on the weekly before continuing up (slowly at first). Bulls want to hold 74 to keep the strength of our April bull move but we can lose this and fall to the 50 MA around 61 and still remain bullish. Break of 60.27 will likely accelerate us down to mid 55 psychological resistance followed by 50 then 47 actual resistance. If we get to these levels I will be fully bearish again. This week I hope for sideways with a slightly bearish lean. The 50 ma is sitting right at our 60.27 support which has me a little nervous we could get a big wick or even candle close down there. This is 20% to the downside so if we see that a lot of the weak hands will fold potentially causing a bearish chain reaction. Although I am cautiously optimistic we are at SIGNIFICANT risk right now as we can make this drop and still maintain our 2019 bullish trend! Bulls may not be motivated to hold.
Daily – Scout our resistance. Attack later.
The daily is looking like a large descending triangle now. We broke bearish yesterday out of a 10 day ascending triangle formation that started on the 11th. I’ve been generous with the top sloping resistance for our descending triangle because I believe we won’t break it for about 10-14 more days (assuming we break it bullish at all). I’m hoping for a retest of the top of the triangle or the red resistance box between 78.96 and 80.91 this week but I expect the test to reject so we can get one more small red candle on the weekly. RSI is sitting at 49 and declining. MacD shows bears are in control currently but not by a lot. Volume is LOW which means price can swing quickly. 12MA is about to cross the 26 bearish. 50 and 200 MA are farther away then bulls would like. 200 ma is now sloping up which is a change that has happened in April. This is another solid sign that we might continue bullish long term.
4 hour - Trench Warfare. Volatility incoming!
RSI 39 and trying to climb out of oversold after the 7.25% dump yesterday. MacD is bearish and appears to be rejecting a bullish cross. I was concerned that we were going to fall back into our old ascending channel for the initial April bull move and we did. This means we have less support and more resistance to break. My experience is that channels and triangles do not necessarily translate to future support or resistance once they are broken but bulls should be aware that we just got a new/old potential resistance and it does look like we are respecting that trend line. We have the 12, 26 and 50 MA all squeezed together and we have the 200 coming up to potentially join the party. Most of you probably know this can mean a very large move is coming. Lastly we can see that the 200ma acted as support on the 4hr during our dump yesterday. This is great news for the bulls as it will provide extra support to the downside which is NEEDED in our current situation. EVERYTHING is squeezing to a breaking point; this is very clear!
I would not call this bullish or bearish (price action bearish, indicators bullish lean, support resistance bearish lean. There is clearly a battle happening on the 4 hr and we are coming down to the wire.
1 hour - Building a base of support?
Don’t really need to change my drawings for the 1 hr. Looks like an ascending broadening wedge using the top of our old channel as resistance. I didn’t draw the bottom of the wedge because it’s easy to imagine. These patterns lean bullish and can provide good short term or swing trades. Assuming we test the top of our triangle (seen on the 4 hr and daily) we have 11% upside and 10% downside (assuming support at the bottom of our previous channel) or 2.3% downside if you assume the 200 will act as support again on the 4hr.
RSI is 44. MacD is bullish but unsure. Looks like it will coast to the 0 line. Notable that the 12, 26 and 50 ma just crossed the 200 bearish on the drop yesterday. Again, look for them all to squeeze for a good trade. I’m seeing a good short term bullish trade here to be honest but the only thing keeping me from taking it is that our resistance is heavy. I think it is more likely we hit the red resistance box and consolidate within it, then drop back to around 75 near the end of the week, rather than going to test the top of the triangle. This would be the more IDEAL long setup as well.
Alright, trying to save some time this week so hopefully I didn’t miss anything. PLEASE tell me if I did or if you have a different outlook. I want to team up with a group of traders this year and crush it.
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BCH In Depth 4/22/19: BCHABC IS FIREHello,
Trader Noxtreme back with your BCH weekly in depth analysis. Please like, subscribe and comment. I’m trying to shorten these up a bit so let’s get right to it.
Weekly – A bit of a gray area.
RSI has cooled off very little after the April run up but we were not NEARLY as overextended as other top market cap coins. RSI is currently sitting at 49 which is just 2 points from its ATH for coin base data. Not sure if that is saying much but it’s worth noting. We have an interesting formation that could be a steep ascending channel, a bull flag with a near symmetrical flag or even a bull flag with a descending triangle flag if you ignore BCHs giant wicks. I am honestly leaning towards the steep ascending channel because of the RSI and the MacD which both give the impression this has a lot of room to run and we are gaining bullish momentum even though we just experience a week of healthy sideways action to form a new base of support at the 290. This being said we are just UNDER the center line of the support we built so this could quickly flip to becoming resistance if we drop back into the gray range. We are at a decision point with a fresh indecision doji on the weekly. Hopefully our sorter term time frames will provide some clues as to if we stay in our ascending channel or break into our gray area.
Daily – Bears in the bushes. Or is that Craig?
I have been watching a very interesting pattern play out on the daily for the last week where we are basically flipping from descending to ascending triangles on a central region from $289.76 to $297.17. Fantastic volatility for short term trades. The smaller triangles are contained in a larger ascending triangle bull flag which is the one pattern not visible on the weekly lol. It’s like a zipper almost. In any case, this center range is becoming a very clear support and resistance area that we should note for the future depending on which way we go (purple box is the range). We have a declining RSI at 59 and a bearish MacD which curiously made the bearish cross on April 13th right before we had a 29% run up that resulted in a rejection from the top of our ascending triangle but did not cross the MacD back to bullish. I’ve got to stick with what I see here: that pattern we have seen in terms of price action indicates we will retest the top of our larger ascending triangle but that MacD and RSI appear to be bears ready to ambush from the bushes and take us down into our gray area (box with yellow outline). We have less support then resistance in close proximity but the green background you see in the top of the chart is our gap from the BSV hard fork, this gap extends all the way into the mid 380s and now with BSV being delisted it stands to reason that some of that money is likely ready to come back. TA says bear lean with potentially unexpected bear attack but gut is conflicted. Moving on!
4 hour – BCH IS FIRE.
The zipper pattern is just so perfect! Looking at the 4 hr we are perfectly positioned for a last test and potentially break the top of our larger ascending triangle assuming we get through the center line of the zipper again. RSI at 47, MacD looking to make a bullish cross, 12, 26, 50 MA squeezed together and looking to re-cross with a bullish move. BUT, we also have the 200MA coming up right to the 243 support I have been mentioning in my previous in depth analysis. This would be an ideal bear target at the moment. 15% to the downside and if that support breaks; wow you would be looking at 37 to 42%. However, if we break bullish, fill the rest of this gap and confirm our bull flag; that is 42%. BCH is FIRE for trading.
1 hour – Ride the Zipper ;)
GEEZ! Yeh I am keeping eyes on this one as much as possible! We have the 12, 26, 50 ma crossing the 200 bearish but now price moving back up to cross bullish. The MAs are squeezing like I said but I wanted to see it on the 4 hr. We have RSI at 53which has basically been our breakout point for this entire “Zipper” pattern. We have a MacD that appears to be rejecting a bear cross. We have a price action pattern that is screaming “time to go up.” I know I sound a bit excited by this point but it is because of how bullish these short term time frames look and how big the ranges are. We must remember the bears we found hiding in the bushes on the 4hr though.
If we break through our center area and continue up to test the top of our triangle that is about 12.5%. If we break through that. It could be as much as 40.
Let’s be real though. Other large cap coins are not showing near term breakouts like this and BCH did not start its run until a few hours AFTER LTC and BTC during the April 2nd run. This looks really good to me but I’m going to go get lunch and take a walk before make any decision here.
Alright, trying to save some time this week so hopefully I didn’t miss anything. PLEASE tell me if I did or if you have a different outlook. I want to team up with a group of traders this year and crush it.
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Short opportunity: SHOPMassive run appears to be topping out. Zacks just rated them as "bear of the day" because "they just don’t make very much money." Overextended after nearly 80% run in the last 4 months. Stock is not HTB
Short around 214
Target 1: 208.87 --- 2.48%
Target 2: 198.61 --- 7.3%
Target 3: 184.15 --- 13.8%
Target 4: 170.22 --- 20.55%