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EUR/USD Prediction on 29.06.2023In the recent months, economic headlines around the globe have been dominated by a singular narrative - the depreciation of the Euro. This piece seeks to shed light on this financial trend, its potential causes, and what it could mean for global economic dynamics. Over the past few months, the Euro has seen a significant decrease in value when compared to other major currencies. The most prominent among these comparisons is against the US dollar. These changes in the currency market have sparked concern and interest from investors, economists, and policymakers alike. Several factors can be attributed to the downward trajectory of the Euro. Key among them is the economic disparity within the Eurozone. Countries like Germany have robust economies, while others such as Italy and Greece still grapple with high levels of debt. These economic disparities cause strain and instability within the Eurozone, which can undermine the value of the Euro. Another contributing factor is the sluggish economic recovery in the Eurozone following the COVID-19 pandemic. While countries like the US and China rebounded relatively quickly, the Eurozone's recovery has been slower and more uneven, due in part to difficulties in coordinating responses among the member countries. Political instability and trade uncertainties have also played a part in the Euro's depreciation. Brexit and its ongoing negotiations have added to the economic uncertainty, putting additional pressure on the Euro. Moreover, the European Central Bank's monetary policy has also been under scrutiny. The ECB's decisions to keep interest rates low in an effort to stimulate the economy might have contributed to the devaluation of the Euro. The effects of the Euro's depreciation are manifold. It makes European goods and services cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially boosting exports for Eurozone countries. However, it also makes imports more expensive, which could stoke inflation. For investors, a weaker Euro can have mixed impacts. It could harm those holding assets denominated in Euros, while presenting a buying opportunity for others. For everyday citizens in the Eurozone, the falling Euro may make foreign travel more expensive and increase the cost of goods imported from non-Euro countries. In conclusion, the decline of the Euro is a complex issue with far-reaching implications. As policymakers and economists grapple with this challenge, the rest of the world watches closely, understanding that the ripples from this situation will undoubtedly have a global impact.
by mazayafx
XAUUSD: Gold Price Forecast!XAU/USD holds steady above 1,920 level, not out of the woods yet The Federal Reserve (Fed) has indicated that interest rates may still need to increase by up to 50 basis points by the end of this year. Furthermore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his recent two-day testimony before Congress, stated that the US central bank does not foresee any rate cuts in the near future. The Fed will wait until it is confident that inflation is trending towards the 2% target before making any changes. As a result, the focus will be on the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, on Friday. This release could impact expectations regarding the next policy decision.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Sphyn-Trader
26
Gold long idea Based on the weekly market structure the following statements can be made: - Following the previous 3 week's trend, we are looking at a classic market maker dump&pump scheme. 1) price is dropping on Monday and thuesday. 2) On Wednesday price normally makes a fakeout to the downside, trapping breakout traders 3) Market makers pump prices to the opposite direction on thuesday, collecting the liquidity from the trend. We have 5 confluences for bullish price action: 1) Price touched a 4h orderblock 2) Price broke below a previous low, creating a discounted price on Wednesday. 3) price created a triple wick rejection with bullish engulfing candle on the 1h chart 4) We have trapped volume from wednesday's New York session 5) selloffs are bought back instantly (seen on the 5m chart) Trade wisely, Peter
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by peti199
Eurusd buyEurUsd has moved with high bull pressurer to this level and formed a Rally and now its moving downwards to form a base there will possibly be a rally in upcoming time we will be waiting for price to break M15 Resistance level as price has already broke M15 trendline the confirmation to buy trade will be a break out of M15 resistance and retest on level with a price action we be buying this pair another confluance for buying this pair is that price is having support on 200EM and a bullish Morubozu candles while break out of M15 trendline so for a safe trade setup we will wait for M15 resistance breakout and retest
Long
by Wakeel_Saab
USDCHF sellUS dollar vs swiss franc the pair has pulled over to the H1 resistance zone and on this level it has shown a rejection with an inverted hammer through which it looks like bulls have losen up some control but also am watching this zone as retailers will be misguided here with a buy trade setup as the pair is moving in a channel formation so its possible that pair will fakeout the resistance zone and will come back to its direction selling to its daily level trendline so we will be waiting for a bearish setup to form as a scalper inverted hammer 🔨 is enough for me to enter sell trade but i am waiting for a proper confirmation candle like Bearish Engulfing or a Bearish Morubozu
Short
by Wakeel_Saab
2
Can You Trade The Cycle?Hi folks, We're going to talk about trade cycles today. I hope you love learning! The strongest power is knowledge! We'll be stronger together! In economics, a trade cycle is a pattern of economic activity that repeats itself over time. It is often characterized by periods of expansion, followed by periods of contraction. The trade cycle can be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in government policy, technological innovation, and consumer demand. The trade cycle is also known as the business cycle or economic cycle. It is a recurring but not periodic fluctuation found in a nation's aggregate economic activity- a cycle that consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general contractions (recessions). There are a number of different types of trade cycles, each with its own characteristics. Some of the most common types of trade cycles include: Kitchin cycle : The Kitchin cycle is a 4- to 5-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Joseph Kitchin, an English economist who first described it in the 1920s. The Kitchin cycle is typically characterized by a period of rising prices, followed by a period of falling prices, followed by a period of rising prices again. Juglar cycle : The Juglar cycle is a 10- to 15-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Clement Juglar, a French economist who first described it in the 19th century. The Juglar cycle is typically characterized by a period of expansion, a period of contraction, a period of recovery, and another period of expansion. Kondratiev cycle : The Kondratieff cycle is a 50- to 60-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Nikolai Kondratieff, a Russian economist who first described it in the 1920s. The Kondratieff cycle is typically characterized by four phases: prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery. Now, we know what cycles are in the shape of context. There is a million dollars question. Can we trade the cycles? As a trader or an investor, we definitely can trade the cycles. However, we need to learn what the cycle is, and how can it start or end. There are a number of ways that a trader can trade the cycle. Some popular methods include: 1- Using fundamental analysis . Fundamental analysis can be used to assess the underlying value of a security. This information can be used to identify potential undervalued or overvalued securities. 2- Using cycle analysis. Cycle analysis is a more specialized form of technical analysis that focuses on identifying cycles in market prices. This information can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades, as well as to forecast future price movements. 3- Using technical analysis. Technical analysis can be used to identify key support and resistance levels, as well as trendlines and patterns. This information can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades. It is important to note that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to trading the cycle. The best approach will vary depending on the individual trader's risk tolerance, trading style, and investment goals . Final Tips: 📍 Use a stop-loss order . A stop-loss order is a type of order that automatically closes a trade if the price of a security reaches a certain level. This can help to protect your profits and limit your losses. 📍 Use a trailing stop-loss order . A trailing stop-loss order is a type of order that automatically moves with the price of a security. This can help to lock in profits and protect your gains. 📍 Be patient . Trading the cycle can be a patient game. It is important to be patient and wait for the right opportunities to trade. 📍 Don't overtrade . It is important to avoid overtrading. Overtrading can lead to losses and can also increase your risk. Bonus Chart : US10Y A task for you! Look at the bonus chart and leave your thoughts considering the correlation between US10Y and SP500 or ONS.
SP:SPXEducation
by Bullfighterr
6
WORLD'S TRADING TITANS: The Top 10 Traders Who Ruled the Market.This article is about the world of iconic traders. They've left a profound mark on the world of trading, inspiring countless traders with their strategies and insights. Jesse Livermore Jesse Livermore, often referred to as the "Great Bear of Wall Street," was a self-taught trader who started his journey at the age of 14 and became one of the most influential traders of his time. He made (and lost) several fortunes betting against the market during the 1907 Panic and the 1929 Crash. Livermore's trading strategy was heavily based on price movements and market psychology, rather than intrinsic value of companies. He was known for his supreme discipline, focusing on timing, price patterns and his well-known adage: “The big money is not in the individual fluctuations but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.” One of Livermore's core principles was the importance of letting the market, rather than emotions, dictate when to buy and sell. He believed in following the big market trend, also known as trend following. His rules around cutting losses quickly, letting profits run, and adding to winning positions are still religiously followed by many traders. Lastly, Livermore emphasized the importance of patience in trading. He famously said, "It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting...Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon." This highlights the importance of waiting for the right opportunities and not overtrading, a lesson that remains relevant for traders today. Livermore's life serves as both an inspiration and a cautionary tale for traders, reminding us of the potential rewards and risks that come with trading. George Soros George Soros is a legendary trader known as "The Man Who Broke the Bank of England." In 1992, he bet against the British Pound, believing that it was overvalued relative to other currencies, notably the Deutsche Mark. His bet paid off, earning his fund an estimated $1 billion in a single day. Soros' trading style falls under a global macro strategy, which involves making large bets on economic trends in various asset classes like currencies, bonds, and commodities across the globe. His ability to detect significant changes in economic conditions and market sentiment, combined with an aggressive risk tolerance, contributed to his extraordinary profits. Central to Soros' approach is the concept of reflexivity, a theory he developed. Reflexivity posits that market perceptions can shape the underlying economic fundamentals, which in turn influence market perceptions, creating a feedback loop. According to Soros, markets are not always in equilibrium or accurately reflecting fundamentals, and these discrepancies can create lucrative trading opportunities. Soros has been a prominent figure not just in trading, but also in philanthropy and politics. His trading career serves as a testament to the potential of a global macro strategy and the importance of understanding both market sentiment and macroeconomic fundamentals when making trading decisions. Despite his success, Soros' strategy involves a high level of risk and requires deep knowledge of global economics, and thus may not be suitable for all traders. Paul Tudor Jones Paul Tudor Jones is one of the most successful traders in the world, known for his ability to navigate and profit from volatile markets. He gained fame after predicting and profiting handsomely from the 1987 stock market crash, a feat which earned him a legendary status in the trading world. Jones' trading style is predominantly macro, meaning he makes bets based on economic trends and events around the world. He trades in a variety of markets, including equities, commodities, currencies, and bonds, and is known for his versatility and adaptability. An avid user of technical analysis, Jones employs chart patterns, price movements and other analytical tools to identify trading opportunities. He combines this with a deep understanding of market fundamentals to create a comprehensive trading strategy. One of Jones' most well-known tenets is his focus on risk management. He is often quoted saying, "If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is simple: Get out." This reflects his belief that protecting capital and managing losses is more important than chasing profits, a strategy that has served him well throughout his career. Jones is also known for his philanthropic efforts. He founded the Robin Hood Foundation, a charity that combats poverty in New York City. His story reminds traders of the importance of risk management, adaptability, and giving back to the community. Richard Dennis Richard Dennis, a commodities trader from Chicago, is a trading legend who rose to fame in the 1970s and 80s. Starting with a small loan, he quickly amassed a fortune, earning him the moniker "Prince of the Pit." But Dennis is perhaps best known for his role in a unique trading experiment that sought to answer an age-old question: Are traders born or made? Dennis' personal strategy centered on trend following - buying when prices increase and selling when they decrease, essentially riding the market's momentum. He believed that price, and how it changes over time, is the most crucial piece of information for a trader. To settle the debate on whether trading could be taught, Dennis and his partner William Eckhardt conducted the "Turtle Traders" experiment in the 1980s. They selected a group of individuals with no trading experience, trained them for two weeks using a simple set of rules based on trend following, and then provided them with money to trade. The experiment's results were astounding. Over the next four years, the Turtles earned an average annual compound rate of return of over 80%. This proved Dennis' theory that anyone could learn to trade, given the right system and discipline to follow it. Dennis' story is a powerful reminder that successful trading is not just about inherent talent but also about discipline, a well-defined strategy, and the ability to follow that strategy consistently. Stanley Druckenmiller Stanley Druckenmiller is a highly respected figure in the world of trading, known for his impressive track record and his role in some of the most legendary trades in history. As a fund manager for George Soros, Druckenmiller was instrumental in the trade that "broke the Bank of England," earning a profit of $1 billion. Druckenmiller's approach to trading is top-down, which means he first considers macroeconomic factors and themes, and then identifies the best investments within that context. He is not averse to placing large, concentrated bets when his confidence in a trade is high. This approach requires a deep understanding of economics, keen intuition, and a high tolerance for risk. Risk management is an essential aspect of Druckenmiller's strategy. He is known to go all in when he's confident in a trade, but he is also quick to exit a position when he realizes he's made a mistake. As he often says, "The first thing I heard when I got in the business...is bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. I'm here to tell you I was a pig." Druckenmiller has an impressive ability to make bold and accurate market predictions. For instance, he successfully predicted and profited from the dot-com bubble's burst in 2000, and later, the financial crisis of 2008. While his aggressive style and remarkable intuition might not be replicable by every trader, Druckenmiller's story underscores the importance of understanding macroeconomic themes, being confident in your convictions, and the crucial role of risk management in trading. Ray Dalio Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest and most successful hedge funds, has left an indelible mark on the world of finance with his innovative approach to investing and risk management. Dalio pioneered the risk parity strategy, which aims to balance the allocation of risk, rather than the allocation of capital, in a portfolio. His "All Weather" portfolio, designed to perform well across various economic environments, is a prime example of this strategy. It is diversified across different asset classes such as stocks, long-term and intermediate-term bonds, and commodities, designed to balance risks of inflation, deflation, and economic growth. Dalio believes that economic events and market behavior are cyclical, a concept he outlines in his book "Principles." Understanding these cycles, according to Dalio, is key to making successful investment decisions. He combines these economic principles with a fundamental and quantitative analysis to make his investment decisions. Dalio also champions the idea of radical transparency in the workplace, arguing that open and honest communication leads to better decision-making and helps avoid persistent problems. He applies this philosophy to his own investment process, using a systematic, rules-based approach to decision-making that reduces the role of emotions and subjective judgment. Dalio's approach underscores the importance of diversification, understanding macroeconomic principles, and systematic, rules-based decision-making in investing. While Dalio's strategies might require a high level of understanding and are not suitable for all investors, his principles and methodology offer valuable lessons for investors of all levels. Ed Seykota Ed Seykota is a trading legend and pioneer of systematic trading who used computerized systems to follow price trends long before such practices were commonplace. Notably, he turned $5,000 into $15 million over 12 years, proving the potential of trend-following strategies. Seykota's trading methodology is deeply rooted in the principles of trend following. He believes in going with the flow of the market, buying when prices are increasing, and selling when prices are decreasing. Seykota’s approach was to identify long-term trends and then take positions in those directions, riding them for as long as they remained intact. Seykota is also known for his emphasis on psychology and personal discipline in trading. He often stresses the importance of understanding one's emotional responses to gain and loss, and managing those feelings effectively to make rational trading decisions. Seykota famously said, "Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market." Moreover, Seykota is a strong advocate of risk management. He believes that managing risk is a key element of long-term success in trading. He often talks about setting stop-loss levels and adjusting them according to market movements to protect his portfolio from significant losses. Seykota's story offers key lessons in the power of trend-following strategies, the importance of psychological discipline, and the crucial role of risk management in trading. Despite the sophistication of his methods, the core principles behind Seykota's success can provide valuable guidance for traders of all levels. Linda Bradford Raschke Linda Bradford Raschke, a prominent figure in the trading world, is known for her technical and fundamental analysis of the futures and equities markets. With a trading career spanning over three decades, Raschke's success underscores the importance of consistency, discipline, and a thorough understanding of market dynamics. Raschke's approach to trading is methodical and rule-based. She uses a mix of chart patterns, indicators, and market cycles to guide her trading decisions. One of her best-known strategies is the "Holy Grail" setup, which combines a moving average with the ADX indicator to identify potential breakouts in the market. In addition to technical analysis, Raschke pays close attention to market fundamentals. She believes that while patterns and indicators can signal trading opportunities, understanding the underlying factors driving market movements is crucial to making informed decisions. Raschke also emphasizes the importance of discipline and risk management. She believes that sticking to a well-defined trading plan, and not letting emotions influence trading decisions, are key to successful trading. As she often says, "Discipline is the ability to sit and wait." Raschke's experience reminds us that successful trading requires a mix of technical knowledge, a deep understanding of market dynamics, and a strong sense of discipline. Whether you're a novice trader or a seasoned veteran, Raschke's approach offers valuable insights. Michael Steinhardt Michael Steinhardt, the founder of Steinhardt, Fine, Berkowitz & Co., is one of Wall Street's most successful hedge fund managers, known for producing remarkable annual returns over a 30-year career. His aggressive, contrarian approach to trading has left a lasting impact on the industry. Steinhardt's approach is characterized by a philosophy he calls "variant perception." He believes in making investments that are contrary to prevailing market views, often taking high-risk positions that other investors shy away from. His ability to spot opportunities where others see none, backed by deep analysis, has been a crucial part of his success. Steinhardt's investment decisions are informed by a comprehensive understanding of macroeconomic factors, as well as a thorough analysis of individual companies and sectors. He holds both long and short positions in a variety of asset classes, demonstrating a remarkable ability to navigate a wide range of market conditions. Risk management is also central to Steinhardt's approach. He is known for taking large positions in his high-conviction ideas, but he also keeps a keen eye on the potential downside and is swift to cut losses when a trade doesn't go as planned. Steinhardt's story underscores the importance of deep research, conviction, and risk management in trading. It also highlights the potential of contrarian investing strategies for those willing to buck the trend and take on higher levels of risk. Remember, however, that such strategies require deep market understanding and are not suitable for all traders. Jim Simons Jim Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies, is a unique figure in the world of trading. With a background in mathematics and a deep understanding of code-breaking from his time as a code breaker during the Vietnam War, Simons has pioneered the use of quantitative trading strategies, achieving extraordinary success. Simons' approach to trading is fundamentally different from many of his peers. Instead of relying on traditional methods of analysis or macroeconomic insights, Simons employs complex mathematical models to uncover patterns in price data that are invisible to the human eye. His fund, the Medallion Fund, is famous for its consistent high-performance, with an average annual return of 35% after fees since 1988. Quantitative trading, or "quant trading," relies on powerful computers to process massive amounts of data and execute trades. This approach requires deep knowledge of mathematics, statistics, and computer science, and it stands as a testament to the potential of using technology in trading. At the heart of Simons' strategy is the belief that markets have more in common with the chaotic, unpredictable world of natural phenomena than they do with the logical, rational models of traditional economics. This realization led him to apply mathematical concepts to financial markets, with remarkable success. Jim Simons’ approach, while highly complex and require significant expertise, shows us the power of mathematics and technology in understanding and capitalizing on financial markets. His story also highlights the potential for innovative, unconventional thinking in trading. That wraps up our highlight of the top 10 traders who've revolutionized the trading world with their strategies, innovation, and sheer tenacity. But trading is ever-evolving and there are countless talented individuals out there. Who do you think should be on this list and why? Share your thoughts, let's spark a conversation. Stay tuned for more educational content and subscribe to our page if you enjoy our educational materials.
CBOE:VIXEducation
by financialflagship
PREDICTION XAUUSD 18-19 MEI 2023Hello I'm back again. I will share the XAUUSD market direction movement for today. Pay attention to the boundary area that I have specified where there are points that must be considered Confirmation area as a determinant of whether to continue direction or reversal Base Lev as a point if the breakout will continue the next area This analysis is only a view, for that it remains to be re-analyzed according to your views. Hope it is useful Thank You Come and Join
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by hudarangkayo
GOLD 16/05 : Nice sell entryTVC:GOLD Gold prices push the lower line of a two-month-old bullish channel as XAU/USD traders brace for key US Retail Sales and debt ceiling negotiations among US policymakers. However, the 200 SMA adds strength to the $2000 support, making it key for the XAU/USD bears to break before taking control. Even if Gold prices drop below 2003$, the 2,000$ round figure could act as an additional filter south before heading XAU/USD towards mid-April lows around 1,975$ . On the downside, a two-week-old descending resistance line, around 2,025$ at press time, protects the Gold price rally in the short term. Following that, the previous monthly high near 2,050$ could test XAU/USD's upside momentum before directing the bulls to the recent record high near 2,085$. It is worth noting that the top line of the stated bullish channel, near 2,095$ at the latest, stands ahead of a round figure of 2,100$ to challenge the subsequent Gold buyers. Overall, Gold price is likely to move higher unless it sustains a breakout of 2,000$. SELL GOLD zone 2024 - 2029 Stoploss: 2034 Take profit 1: 2019 Take profit 2: 2014 Take profit 3: 2009
TVC:GOLDShort
by DNA_TradingFX
EUR/JPY: 16/05. Good input for the sellerEUR/JPY is heading towards the neck and shoulder line after the cross broke out of the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 147.68. However, it still hesitates to achieve a decisive breakout that could invalidate the pattern. As the Asian session begins, EUR/JPY is trading around 147.95, down 0.06%. EUR/JPY remains skewed to neutral, although in the near term, will be tilted slightly to the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator shows a pause in the uptrend as the RSI is flat in the bullish zone, while the 3-day Rate of Change (RoC) is neutral. Although EUR/JPY spot price tests the head and shoulders neckline, the pattern remains intact. The confluence of the neckline and last year's high of 148.45 could make it difficult for buyers while being a good zone for EUR/JPY sellers. OANDA:EURJPY SELL EURJPY zone 148.00 - 148.10 SL: 148.35 TP: 147.00
Short
by DNA_TradingFX
1
Predict SELLING eur/jpy before tonight's CPIEUR/JPY remains up slightly as it consolidates the previous day's declines around 148.380 early on Wednesday. In doing so, the cross shows a bullish pennant chart pattern in the hourly shadow chart. , giving the recent confirmation score. It should be noted, however, that the MACD line and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) are slow to challenge the quote's upside momentum, alongside the immediate barrier at 148.40 Even if EUR/JPY buyers confirm a bullish pennant breakout, the 50 SMA around 147,500 could act as an additional hurdle before directing the pair towards its theoretical target near 148,000. Conversely, a breakdown of the aforementioned pennant support line, near 147.500, could challenge the bullish histogram and possibly direct the pair towards the support of the line. SMA 200 near 146.400.
Short
by DNA_TradingFX
3