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DXY (Dollar Index) Long term movement prediction for 2021DXY / DX1! / FX:USDOLLAR / Dollar Index is searching for liquidity, bouncing up and down in the process. This is my long term prediction on how it could move - given no major economic shifts. Option 1 DXY breaks below the Q1 2018 lows, collects liquidity It then runs up to fill in the fair value gap from Q3 2020 It then falls down and get rejected from Q3 2014 lows as those trapped shorts exit - creating a rally It then falls down again below Q3 2014 lows to collect liquidity Heads back up again in search of liquidity Option 2 DXY creates a short term low just before Q1 2018 liquidity run, so that it can trap even more traders It then runs up to fill in the fair value gap from Q3 2020 It then falls down, collects the liquidity below Q1 2018 lows Get rejected from Q3 2014 lows as those trapped shorts exit - creating a rally It then falls down again below Q3 2014 lows to collect liquidity Heads back up again in search of liquidity
ICEUS:DX1!
by makuchaku
My trading strategies : Trade against the trapped trader!STRAT 11 : Basic premise As price continues in a trend, more and more traders keep piling into the same direction, hoping that the trend will continue and they will make money. However, at some point, the trend sharply reverses, breaking the market structure in opposite direction and trapping a whole bunch of retail traders in the direction of trend which just got reversed. We create a zone which identifies these trapped traders and then patiently wait for them to exit, and trade with limit orders in the direction of their exit. You can add additional confirmation signals from DXY's directions for the instruments which are highly correlated to DXY (EURUSD, USDCHF, etc)
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by makuchaku
3
Learning You can see today's rally in bank nifty . Generally what happens if there is a big rally then after achieving the top the index will retrace 20-30 to a maximum of 50 percent. Hence whenever you see green candles at 30 or 50 % levels of fibo retracement you can still go long in direction of the rally. This is the move where many retailers get trapped after selling and the market bounces sharply which you can see here. If it breaches 50 percent then you can say the trend may have changed for downward 300-500 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by vivekz_142
1
USDCHF (4H) Backtest : 68% win rate (net 17 R)Detailed backtest results - prnt.sc - Win/Loss ratio : 300% - Non losers : 78% - Net R : 17 R across 18 trades - Avg R / winner = 1.42 - Avg R / trade = 0.94 Icons on the chart - Thumbs up : Trade was a win - Thumbs down : Trade was a loss - Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven - Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers - Bug : I could not understand how to trade, so avoided trading Trade qualifiers - $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken) - Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss How to read icons on chart? - Thumbs up + $ icon => Winner trade, direction was supported by DXY - Thumbs down + $ icon => Loser trade, direction was supported by DXY - Cross + $ icon => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction (though a liquidity hunt wasn't an issue) - Cross + $ icon + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction & a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss - Cross + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss (though DXY did support trade direction) Indicators at bottom of chart 1) Count of HH/LL for the pair - shows when market structure is broken => Also generates a signal on the main chart (highlighted vertical lines) 2) Count of HH/LL for DXY - shows how the pair is moving in correlation to DXY 3) Correlation of the pair with DXY - just to give an idea about how the correlation is moving Strategy Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY (or ignore the DXY correlation) AND Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation How to draw the zones? Check this tutorial : Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R Variables Avg winner = 1.75R PS1 : Please excuse the busy chart! PS2 : This backtest was performed right to left, so could include visibility bias. However, I tried to follow the strategy rules in all trades.
by makuchaku
Multi symbol analysis (weekly) : DXY seems to be moving lower!Now that the US elections are behind us, all the intentions of the weekly chart of US DOLLAR / DXY seem as if it's going to move lower! It is forming bearish order blocks (on Weekly), trapping longs all along the way since March 2020 & also there are a bunch of shorts trapped from April 2018 timeframe that would love an exit. Till price action reaches those zones, DXY is heading lower! What this means? USDXXX pairs to move lower XXXUSD pairs to move higher Equity to head higher Another reason DXY could head lower is if more stimulus gets announced for the US economy. I'll add more evidence from other forex pairs about why I think this move could be verified. PS : Another way DXY could move is in a consolidation - as below the current price, we have unidirectional price movement from Apr 2018 timeframe - which could counteract lower movement.
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by makuchaku
TBonds (ZB1!) 4H - Trapped traders on both sides of priceTrade setup There are trapped traders on both sides of price above monthly highs & lows for TBonds ZB1! on 4H timeframe. When price comes back to either of these zones - these trapped traders will want to exit - giving us an exit! Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R Strategy Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY (if trading DXY or an uncorrelated instrument, ignore the correlation) AND Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation
CBOT:ZB1!
by makuchaku
XAGUSD (4H) Backtest : 70% non-loser (net 15.75 R)Detailed backtest results - prnt.sc - Win/Loss ratio : 186% - Non losers : 70% - Net R : 15.75 R across 23 trades - Avg R / winner = 1.21 - Avg R / trade = 0.68 NOTE : DXY correlation was not used in this backtest Icons on the chart - Thumbs up : Trade was a win - Thumbs down : Trade was a loss - Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven - Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers - Bug : I could not understand how to trade, so avoided trading Trade qualifiers - $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken) - Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss How to read icons on chart? - Thumbs up + $ icon => Winner trade, direction was supported by DXY - Thumbs down + $ icon => Loser trade, direction was supported by DXY - Cross + $ icon => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction (though a liquidity hunt wasn't an issue) - Cross + $ icon + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction & a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss - Cross + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss (though DXY did support trade direction) Indicators at bottom of chart 1) Count of HH/LL for the pair - shows when market structure is broken => Also generates a signal on the main chart (highlighted vertical lines) 2) Count of HH/LL for DXY - shows how the pair is moving in correlation to DXY 3) Correlation of the pair with DXY - just to give an idea about how the correlation is moving Strategy Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY (or ignore the DXY correlation) AND Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation How to draw the zones? Check this tutorial : Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R Variables Avg winner = 1.75R PS1 : Please excuse the busy chart! PS2 : This backtest was performed right to left, so could include visibility bias. However, I tried to follow the strategy rules in all trades.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by makuchaku