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On The EdgeSoybeans Fundamentals: Chinese GDP missed expectations last night, coming in at .4% in the second quarter from a year ago. Analysts were expecting growth at 1%. Retail sales in China rose more than expected, to 3.1%. On deck is U.S. retail sales, 7:30 AM CT. This will likely have an impact on outside markets, which have recently had an impact on money-flow in commodities. Expectations are for .8% month over month. Techncials: August soybeans continue to linger near the 200-day moving average, trading on it for 7 out of the last 9 sessions. Our pivot pocket remains intact from 1452-1461 ¼. A break and close below here could lead to a retest of last week’s lows. If the Bulls can continue to defend support, the first upside objective would be 1495-1505. With that said, our feelings on soybeans are similar to corn, where we think there could continue to be multiple short-term opportunities for market participants on both sides of the market. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1495-1505*, 1513 ¼-1516 ½, 1530-1538*, 1552 ¾-1560 Pivot: 1452-1461 ¼ Support: 1413 ¾-1424 ¼, 1400-1403** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZS1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Treading Near Significant Levels Soybeans Seasonal Trends in Play: Short November soybeans from 7/1-8/31. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 40 cents, or $2,000 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Yesterday's weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 63%, this is a 2% drop from last week and 1% lower than expectations. Compared to last year, that number is 4% better. 3% of the crop is setting pods and 16% is blooming. Weekly export inspections came in at 354,987 metric tons, below the range of estimates. Technicals: Soybeans got taken to the woodshed yesterday, breaking below the 200-day moving average and the 50% retracement. That forms a pocket form 1452-1457. If the Bulls can chive a close back above this pocket, we could see an attempt at filling the gap from yesterday's open, that comes in from 1495-1505. A failure to close back of this pocket could keep the selling pressure on. There's been significant technical damage done over the last few weeks, so a rally would likely just be relief in a downward trending market. Our bias remains in bearish territory, despite the high probability of a decent relief rally. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1495-1505****, 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1452-1457 Support: 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Time for a Relief Rally?Wheat Fundamentals: Yesterday's crop progress report showed spring wheat ratings at 66% good/excellent, 7% better than estimates. Winter wheat is 54% harvested, a hair behind expectations. Yesterday's weekly export inspections came in at 111,830 metric tons, well below the range of estimates. Technicals: Our bias has been in bearish territory for a while now, but the market retreated back to some significant levels. Previous resistance in December and February from 800-815, was the breakout point on February 22nd. The full retracement in our eyes represents a short-term opportunity for relief in what is also a deeply oversold market. The chart still looks ugly as sin, but as with corn, there's a good risk/reward trade to the buyside at these levels, whether that be short covering or initiating a new position. We are moving our bias out of bearish territory to outright Neutral. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 898 ½-903****, 960-970*** Pivot: 839-849 Support: 800-815****, 739-749*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Time to Buy the Dip? Corn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Yesterday's weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 64%, this is a 3% drop from last week and 1% lower than expectations. Compared to last year, that number is unchanged. 7% of the crop is silking. Weekly export inspections came in at 676,824 metric tons, well below the range of estimates. Technicals: Corn futures broke below support which opened the door for a precipitous drop, filling the gap from February 7th and coming within a stone's through of previously significant resistance from November to February. Despite the extreme volatility, all the technicals remain intact as our first support pocket held on a closing basis yesterday. As mentioned in yesterday's Tech Talk, this is a great risk/reward setup for those that want to be long the market. If you had been playing the seasonal bearish trend, this is the spot to consider reducing that exposure. The chart is a technical graveyard but is ripe for a decent relief rally. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 645-652 ½****, 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Pivot: 624-630 Support: 586-589 ¼****, 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Weat Continues Lower Wheat Technicals (September): September wheat futures continued their descent yesterday, breaking and closing below the 200-day moving average for the first time in this contract's lifetime (September 2022 futures). This opens the door for a drop down near 800 which is where the market started accelerating to the upside during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Market moves like this often overshoot breakout points, so a trade with the $7 handle in the near future wouldn’t be out of the question. Resistance above the 200-day moving average (901 ½) doesn’t come in until closer to 960. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 960-970***, 1028 ¼-1037 ½**** Pivot: 898 ½-903 Support: 839-849**, 800*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Trade Lower After a Bullish USDA ReportSoybeans Technicals (August): Yesterday’s USDA report put some pep in soybeans step right out of the gat, launching prices all they way up to technical resistance near $16.00. This is obviously a psychologically significant level, but it also represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, along with the breakdown point from June 22nd. Despite the friendly report, the market couldn’t sustain the strength which led to long liquidation at the end of month/quarter. That failure has led to weakness in the overnight and early morning session. The market has retreaded back near our pivot pocket overnight, we’ve had that labeled in previous reports as 1533 ½. The Bulls need to defend this to prevent a further decline and retest of the June 24th lows, 1494 ¾. Below that is the 200-day moving average, 1456. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1533 ½ Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1456** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Futures Test the 200 Day Moving AverageCorn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Technicals (September): Yesterday’s USDA report was Neutral, but Neutral wasn’t enough to feed the Bull into the last trading day of the month/quarter, which triggered additional long liquidation on a break below support from 645-652 ½. That weakness carried into the overnight session and took prices a notch below our next support pocket, 624-630. The market is now the most oversold sense April of 2020. If the market is able to defend support, we could see a retracement of yesterday’s breakdown point, 645-652 ½, this will now act as significant resistance. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 645-652 ½****, 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Support: 624-630****, 589 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lean Hogs Break Below the 200 Day Moving AverageLean Hogs Technicals (August): It was the last trading day of the month and quarter, which may have been the main catalyst for breaking lean hogs below what we have labeled a “MUST HOLD” support level, defined by the 200-day moving average and trendline support. This will now act as our pivot pocket, 103.00-103.95. Resistance: 108.125**, 109.45***, 110.075-110.225**, 111.30*** Pivot: 103.00-103.95 Support: 101.30-101.60**, 98.00-98.65**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Feeder Cattle Rally on Weaker Corn MarketsFeeder Cattle Technicals (August): Feeder cattle were able to catch a rally yesterday, thanks in part to the corn market collapsing following a “neutral” USDA report. Though it was nice to see a rally, the recent price action relative to the sharp decline in corn has been less than impressive. Not that it has to be a 1:1 correlation, but we would have expected to be a little closer to the 180 neighborhoods. Stiff resistance comes in from 175.35-175.65. This pocket represents the 100 and 200 day moving average, along with what was previously (recently) trendline support. A conviction close above this pocket may be what the Bulls need to work back towards the upper end of the recent range. Resistance: 175.35-175.65****, 176.80-177.075*** Pivot: 171.45 -172.40 Support: 169.40**, 167.325** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:GFQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Will Cattle Futures Rally to Meet the Cash Market? Thursday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 2,000 more than last week, and 7,000 more than the same week last year. Thursday’s Cutout Values Choice: 264.00, Down .88 from the previous day. Select: 240.57 Down .24 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 23.43 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 145.85 Live Heifer: 143.55 Dressed Steer: 234.01 Dressed Heifer: 233.98 Live Cattle Technicals (August): August live cattle made new lows for the move in yesterday’s session but were able to recover and finish the last trading day of the month/quarter/half in positive territory. With the cash market remaining firm, some of the pressure may be attributed to technical selling and end of the month/quarter positioning. We remain optimistic that live cattle will be able to work back towards some of those key moving averages, north of 135.00. Resistance: 134.85-135.25 ***, 135.975-136.60**, 138.75**, 140.275** Pivot: 132.45-132.775 Support: 129.975-130.725**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
NKELooks like we may be retracing from the previous C wave. Sell volume decreasing on the last two candles with some bull volume coming in on the current candle. RSI is in oversold territory on the weekly, daily, and 8 hour. Current candle is a flat bottom so far. MacD may also be losing momentum. The current candle has formed bullish right after an indecision candle at a support area. Strong wickage at this level looking back towards May 12th. Looking to see if we can retrace 1 to 80% of previous high a month or more out. Let's see what happens! Might be a good idea to wait until next week. The market been green the last two days. What do you think? Let's have a great day!
NYSE:NKELong
by Redimere_91
1
Lean Hogs Catch Their Breath Lean Hogs Technicals (July): July lean hogs were able to breakout above trendline resistance and the 50-day moving average which led way to an extension to our next resistance level mentioned in yesterday’s report, we’ve defined that wide ranging pocket as 112.825-114.00. Previous resistance will now act as support, that comes in near 110.50-111.475. Resistance: 112.85-114.00****, 117.025-117.85** Pivot: 110.50-111.475 Support: 103.35-103.70****, 101.30-101.60**, 97.375-98.00**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:HEN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Live Cattle Retreat. Will Support Hold?Live Cattle Technicals (August): August live cattle were under pressure all day yesterday, trading down to the low end of our first support pocket, 134.85-135.35. Yesterday’s low was 134.85. If the Bulls cannot defend this pocket through today’s session, it may open the door for another leg lower, with the next support pocket coming in near 132.45-132.775. On the support side of things, the Bulls want to get back out above yesterday’s high and the 100-day moving average, 135.975 and 136.60. Resistance: 137.90-137.95**, 138.75**, 140.275** Pivot: 135.975-136.60 Support: 134.85-135.35***, 132.45-132.775**, 129.975-130.725**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Can Feeder Cattle Rebound with Lower Corn Prices? Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): Feeder cattle futures failed against our resistance pocket from 175.50-176.125 which put them in reverse. August feeders filled the illusive gap, which was a gap lower on June 13th but a gap higher on June 21st. Yesterday’s failure to get out above technical resistance was somewhat of a caution flag as it did mark lower highs, but no significant damage was done to the chart. Trendline support and the 50-day moving average remain intact, that comes in from 171.45 (50 dma)- 172.40 (trendline support from the May 23rd lows. Resistance: 175.50-176.125**, 176.80-177.075*** Pivot: 173.75-174.02 Support: 171.45 -172.40****, 169.40**, 167.325** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:GFQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
BTCUSDLooks like we are close to the end of the C wave on the daily timeframe. Sell volume is decreasing on the 2 hour timeframe with the current candle painting bullish (doji) at the moment with that in mind. We are in a session high volume area on the 2 hour timeframe. On the daily, we are potentially recovering and entering a retracement to the current wave and I want to see if we can retrace anywhere between 38% to 61% of wave C. The macd is also showing signs of momentum loss on the bear sentiment. The current daily candle opened higher than the previous candle's close. Let's see what happens. What do you think?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Redimere_91
1
AAPLI wanted to publish this earlier. I did enter this trade at open so be careful of any pullbacs. Looks like we may be done with the C wave of the elliott wave.I want to see if price can retrace wave B between 50 to 61%. The current daily candle has some buyer volume in and the previous candle is bullish with high sell volume. Keep in mind that RSI is oversold and may be crossing the 20 threshold. The Mac D is also on the bottom side and may start to lose bearish momentum. Let's see what happens. What do you think?
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Redimere_91
2
EURGBPLooks like we have a strong wick rejection right at the 200 ema on this timeframe. We could potentially be at the start of the C wave retracement toward previous low. We are oversold on the RSI and the Mac D is just about to cross so we might be a tad bit early on this trade and could possibly gain more bullish before the retracement is true just being honest. That is a possibility. If you look at the volume profile to the right, you will see that the current price is in a high sell volume zone. The selling pressure is starting to shift down a bit with a red candle open on the weekly. The bulls are still fighting so let's see how this looks by the end of the week. I only want to see if we can retrace 38% of the previous low. However, due to price action and wave analysis, I left the 61% and 100% targets there just in case. What do you think?
Short
by Redimere_91
VTI (Total Stock Market)On an analysis earlier that I published, the DXY may be ready for a retracement to the previous wave low. Now reeling back in on the VTI Looks like we may be close to being done with the C phase on this timeframe. Wave C has so far retraced Wave B up to 161%. I don't want to get too greedy until we see economic indicators start to peak out. However, I would like to see if we could reach the 38% retracement of Wave C in the near future. We still ended the week with large sell volume. However, on the 12 hour time frame, some of that sell volume has started to weaken down a bit. We may be early on this assumption. The K and D of the RSI has reached an oversold point. They haven't crossed up past the 20 level just yet. The MacD has crossed the zero line but hasn't shown any indication of momentum shift just yet. I want to be careful with price targets here so I will only keep it at the 38% level for responsible trading. Let's see what happens! What do you think?
AMEX:VTILong
by Redimere_91
1