ETHUSD (Party over?)I see a bearish candle with some bullish volume coming in where the arrows are. We also may be in an "ABC wave". I would like to see the retracement retrace up up to 123% of the start of Wave A.
Trades
Are stocks going to sell off this time?The past 3 FOMC press conferences have been followed up by a pump into the end of day. The last 2 times, the day after, or even after the close of the day, SPX sold off and made a new low. We shall see if history will repeat itself this
this time. If helpful, please boost and follow. Cheers.
GBPUSD time to buyGBPUSD time to buy
The new prime minister new economic policy to strengthen the national currency of the UK to see its price increase
Lean Hogs RallyLean Hogs
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 5,411 futures/options through July 19th. This expands their net long position to 45,435 contracts.
Technicals (October): October lean hogs were able to breakout above the top end of the range from May and June, this could propel prices back to the march highs, 100.825. On the support side of things, the 100-day moving average lines up with previous resistance near 94.30-95.30. The Bulls will want to defend this pocket going forward. A break and close below could neutralize the friendly developments on the chart.
Resistance: 97.525-97.85**, 100.375-100.825***
Support: 94.30-95.30***, 92.50**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Are Cattle Futures Set for a Bigger Breakout? Friday's Slaughter is estimated at 119,000. 1,000 less than last week, but 7,000 more than the same week last year.
Friday's Cutout Values
Choice: 267.12, Down .64 from the previous day.
Select: 242.50, Up 1.97 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 24.62
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 140.65
Live Heifer: 138.50
Dressed Steer: 227.51
Dressed Heifer: 226.76
Cattle on Feed Snapshot
Cattle on Feed 100% VS Estimates 99.8%
Placed: 98% VS Estimates 94.3%
Marketed: 102% VS Estimates 102%
Live Cattle
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 1,585 contracts through July 19th. Majority of this was short covering. This puts their net position at 19,665 contracts. This is a historically small position. We would consider a net long of 40k as relatively neutral positioning.
Technicals (October): Live cattle futures finally got a nice move higher on Friday, will that be sustained in today’s trade? TBD. The market is testing the highs from June 9th and June 21st. A close above here could open the door for an extension into April 25th gap, 145.10-145.975. The Bulls will want to defend 141.80-141.90.
Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50**
Pivot: 141.80-141.90
Support: 139.975-140.675**, 138.025-138.35****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Wheat Futures Rally Wheat
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 372 futures/options contracts through July 19th. This expands their net short position to 6,816 contracts. Broken down that is 61,465 longs VS 68,281 shorts.
Fundamentals: As with the corn market, wheat futures are rallying this morning on concern that the deal to open up Ukrainian ports will not stand. This after Russia and Ukraine inked a deal on Friday. By Saturday morning, there were two missile strikes in Odessa.
Technicals: September wheat futures were down another 17 ¾ cents last week, taking prices to their lowest level since the first week of February. Wheat futures are higher this morning, a silver lining for the Bulls, but they have their work cut out for them following the last several months of intense pressure. The first hurdle is to achieve a close out above the psychologically significant $8.00 handle.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 839-849**, 898 ½-903****, 960-970***
Pivot: 800-815
Support: 765 ¾**, 739-749***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Corn Futures Recover Friday's Losses Corn
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 25,871 futures/options contracts through July 19th. 24,916 of this was long liquidation, just 955 were new short positions. This shrinks their net long position to 125,303 contracts. Broken down that is 202,400 longs VS 77,097 shorts.
Fundamentals: Corn futures had another rough week, with the December contract losing 39 ½ cents. Cooler and wetter forecasts working their way into 1-2 week forecast didn’t offer any support. Russia and Ukraine signed a deal on Friday that would open up Ukrainian ports. There were skeptics out of the gate and now even more as Russia bombed Odessa Saturday morning. The strike didn’t appear to have damaged any grain storage, but it certainly doesn’t help build confidence that the agreement will stand.
Technicals (September): Corn futures are rebounding this morning, erasing the losses from Friday’s session. Friday morning, we moved our bias from outright Neutral to Neutral/Bullish, aka cautiously optimistic. The Bulls want to see a conviction close out above our pivot pocket, 574 ¼-579 ¼, to help encourage additional upward momentum towards our resistance pocket, 586-589.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 586-589****, 624-630***, 645-652 ½***
Pivot: 574 ¼-579 ¼
Support: 542 ¼-547 ¾***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
SPYTrading Checklist
Fundamental:
United States
- Recent GDP Report: -8.5
- Inflation Rate: +0.5
- Recent Interest Rate Change: +0.75
Technical:
- Could be at the start of an abc wave. I wonder if it could turn impulsive.
- Stochastic is in an overbought state.
- Bearish doji candle spotted while bullish volume broke down a bit.
- Current and recent candles may be indicating that the 20 HMA may carry us to the 200 HMA where price feels safe from time to time.
Final Notes:
- Set stop loss at wave b top to see if the wave is invalid and will reassess if hit.
- Set three target
o 38% (Risk reward ratio: 1.03)
o 61% (Risk reward ratio: 2.28)
AUDNZDTrading Checklist
Fundamental:
Australia
- Recent GDP Report: -2.8
- Inflation Rate: +1.6
- Recent Interest Rate Change: +0.5
New Zealand
- Recent GDP Report: -3.2
- Inflation Rate: +0.4
- Recent Interest Rate Change: +0.5
Technical:
- We could be starting the c wave. The b wave has retraced the start of the a wave by 61%.
- Price is increasing while bullish has been increasing since the beginning of the a wave.
- RSI is close to being overbought.
Final Notes:
- Set stop loss at wave 5 top to see if the wave is invalid and will reassess if hit.
- Set three target
o 76% (Risk reward ratio:0.73)
o 123% (Risk reward ratio: 1.91)
o 161% (Risk reward ratio: 2.87)
ETHUSDTrading Checklist
Fundamental:
- Net Network Growth : -0.23%
- Large Transactions” -1.1%
- 24 Hr volume: +25%
Technical:
- Stochastic overbought
- Price creating a resistance. Current candle forming may be rejecting the 20 HMA.
- Wave 4 (if valid) should retrace 38% of the start of wave 3 (where wave 2 is).
- Two bearish candles at an extension with bullish volume decreasing.
- Volume may be exhausting in this area.
- If this is truly an impulse to the upside, wave 3 may be rejecting and or creating a new resistance at the 261% price level.
Final Notes
- Risk reward: 1.14
- I would hope this is really an “abc” impulse to the downside so we can get a better price on the way back up.
EURUSD (Will update)Trading Checklist
Fundamental:
Unites States
- Recent GDP Report: -8.5
- Inflation Rate: +0.5
- Recent Interest Rate Change: +0.75
Europe
- Recent GDP Report: +0.4
- Inflation Rate: +0.5
- Recent Interest Rate Change: +0.5
Technical:
- RSI Divergence? Lower high on Stochastic. Equal high’s between waves 3 - b.
- Wave B retraced the start of wave a 85%. Bullish volume looks like it’s exhausting.
- Wave c (if valid) should retrace to 85%, 123%, or 161% of the start of wave a. (Used Fibonacci and Elliott waves to determine targets.
LTCUSDWe could be getting setup for an abc wave. I marked to 61% and 161% retracement levels to see if the levels run true. I also put a stop loss at the start of the "c" wave in order to make price prove its validity. We are at a level where bears start to fight harder. Let's see what happens over time! It's also good to see some small wick rejection of the 50 HMA.
What do you think? You like the shoes? Trying something different!
XAUUSDIs Gold ranging? On the 1 hour, volume bars are decreasing as price action has been bullish the last few hours. Looking for a 61% retracement towards the previous low.
What do you think. I believe that Gold may pull back to some degree. RSI is oversold on the 1 hour as well.
Follow and like let's build!
ETH (Sneaker Version)Hope you like the art.
We might be approaching the end of the fifth wave. Do you think we can retrace to the 61% zone of the previous low (wave 4)?
We are nearing an overbought area. We haven't gotten there just yet but I would like to see how the candle closes in a couple of hours. If the bull volume can close lower than the previous candle, we may be getting an early sign of weakness. Let's see how this goes. You can also say we are getting close to a double top if you like chart patterns.
Follow an Like Let's build together!
SPY (You like the sneakers?)Looks like we may be at a pivot point. We are at an overbought area on the RSI. I believe that this may be an "abc" corrective wave pattern. We may be coming off of the C part of the wave. I didnt want to over mark the chart. Looking for a 61% Fibonacci retracement to the previous low. It's a fair fight around this area regarding bulls and bears volume so I recommend looking at volume analysis before we really see where price may go. Price may need to test this 200 HMA. However, I have my reasons to believe that this current rally needs a cooling down.
What do you think?
Wheat Futures Conoslidate
Wheat
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 511,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technicals: Wheat futures are holding their own this morning, relative to the pressure we are seeing in corn and beans. We mentioned in recent Tech Talks that this could be the case. Corn and wheat have retraced a large portion of their higher move from the beginning of the year, which may help prices enter into more of a consolidation phase, near term.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 839-849**, 898 ½-903****, 960-970***
Pivot: 800-815
Support: 739-749***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Threatening the Recent Lows Soybeans
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales of 203,500 MT for 2021/2022 and 254,700 MT for 2022/2023. Yesterday morning, private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
Technicals: The 200-day moving average has held as support over the last few weeks, but it's looking as though that may be coming to an end with prices threatening the low end of the range from July 5th and 6th. A break and close below this pocket could take us closer to the psychologically significant $14.00 handle.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1495-1505****, 1513 ¼-1516 ½***, 1530-1538***, 1552 ¾-1560***
Pivot: 1452-1461 ¼
Support: 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Corn Trades to Lowest Price Since the Start of the YearCorn
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 33,900 MT for 2021/2022 were down 43 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average. -Net sales of 570,200 MT for 2022/2023
Techncials: Corn futures have broken below our 4-star support pocket from 586-589, taking out the lows from July 5th and 6th. This is now at the lowest trading level since January 24th. Our next support pocket is also being tested this morning, we've had that defined as 574 1/4-579 1/4. This level area was a big resistance area at the end of last year and beginning of this year. The RSI (relative strength index is at 30.8, a hair above what would be considered "oversold".
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 624-630***, 645-652 ½***
Pivot: 586-589
Support: 574 ¼-579 ¼***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Lean Hogs Continue to Rally*Cold storage report will be out tomorrow afternoon
Lean Hogs
Technicals (August): Lean hog futures finally showed some more conviction in their recent breakout move above significant resistance from 111-112ish. This opens the door to a potential test of first resistance, 116.325. The more significant resistance comes in closer to 120. The RSI (at the bottom of the chart) is approaching its highest level since March, which is still below what would be considered “overbought”.
Resistance: 116.325**, 120.30-121.25***
Pivot: 111.30-112.00
Support: 109.825-110.50***, 103.00-103.95***, 101.30-101.60**, 98.00-98.65****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Cattle Consolidate Ahead of USDA Report Wednesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 2,000 less than last week, but 6,000 more than the same week last year.
Wednesday’s Cutout Values
Choice: 270.53, Down 2.04 from the previous day.
Select: 242.25, Down 1.48 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 28.28
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer:136.59
Live Heifer: 136.56
Dressed Steer: 227.60
Dressed Heifer: 228.00
Cattle on Feed Estimates (Report out tomorrow after the close)
On-Feed: 99.8%
Placed: 94.3%
Marketings: 102%
Live Cattle
Technicals (August): The technical landscape remains unchanged as the market continues to consolidate and linger near the 100 and 200 day moving averages (135.60 and 135.70). The August contract is starting to run against the shot clock so we will start covering the October contract starting next week.
Resistance: 137.95-138.75***, 140.275**, 141.625-141.825****
Pivot: 135.575-135.725
Support: 134.20**, 132.775-133.30***, 129.975-130.725****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Wheat futures linger near the low end of the rangeWheat
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 185,989 metric tons, well below the 532,898 we saw in the same week last year. The weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent ratings for spring wheat at 71%. 68% of the crop is headed. Winter wheat harvest is 70% complete.
Technicals (September): Wheat futures continue to consolidate near previous resistance levels and the psychologically significant $8.00 handle. If the Bulls fail to defend our pivot pocket, we could see the selling pressure pick back up. A close out above 815 would feel would have the opposite effect.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 839-849**, 898 ½-903****, 960-970***
Pivot: 800-815
Support: 739-749***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Will technical support hold? Corn
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 1,073,972 metric tons, right in line with what we saw for the same week last year, 1,076,668 metric tons. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 64%, unchanged from the previous week. Iowa leads the way with a rating of 81%. Illinois had the biggest weekly gain of +4%, that puts them at 70% G/E. 37% of the crop is silking.
Technicals (September): Corn futures made a run at 4-star resistance yesterday but fizzled out and finished the day close to where we gaped higher on Sunday night. Futures are lower this morning as some forecasts improve. This has dropped prices within a stone’s throw of 4-star support, 586-589. Our bias remains in Neutral territory. We continue believe there will continue to be short term opportunities on both sides of the market as weather continues to have an implication on day-to-day gyrations.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 627 3/4-631 3/4****, 645-652 ½***, 678 ¼-684 ½**
Support: 586-589****, 574 ¼-579 ¼***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Will Hogs Breakout?Lean Hogs
Commitment of Traders Update: Friday’s Updated CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 11,450 futures/options contracts through July 12th This expands their net long position to 39,934 contracts.
Technicals (August): August lean hog futures traded at the upper end of the two-month range last week. Resistance remains intact from 111.30-112.00. A break and close above this pocket, and there’s little significant resistance for several dollars. On the support side of things, 106.35-107.025 is the pocket the Bulls need to defend.
Resistance: 111.30-112.00***, 116.325**, 120.30-121.25***
Pivot: 106.35-107.025
Support: 103.00-103.95***, 101.30-101.60**, 98.00-98.65****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
