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When The DXY Goes Down, The Broader Market Goes Up!Hello traders, here is a quick chart update for the DXY. First, you have to understand that the broader market recently has been trading opposite of the DXY... This means that: - DXY Up = Broader Market Down - DXY Down = Broader Market Up This has been incredibly consistent for nearly the past year so it is an excellent predictor of the stock and crypto markets. The DXY is at a pivotal point right now being as it has hit the top of its channel. - This likely outcome is that the DXY will pullback into support, giving the broader market bulls the confidence to rally the market. ****So if the DXY pulls back, the market will rally**** Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
TVC:DXY
by natef1
SPY - Approaching 200 Weekly MA - Will We See A Bounce?Hello Traders, here is my analysis for the SPY. Although this is a quick analysis, it is still an important one. The SPY is approaching the 200 Weekly moving average. - In the past 10 years, each time that we have hit the 200 Weekly MA we have had a bounce, except for the "covid crash" when we temporarily dipped below. - When we factor in the fact that the DXY is overextended and will likely reverse soon at the same time that the SPY is about to hit the 200 MA, I think this is a strong signal that a bounce will occur. 2 Bullish Factors on the Weekly time frame... 1) 200 MA will act as support 2) Bullish divergence on the RSI - In my opinion there is a high probability that we see a bounce in the broader market this week. - Many large players will be looking to buy at this level. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
AMEX:SPY
by natef1
2
$DXY - It has been my best friend for while...$DXY - It has been my best friend for while... We have a saying in trading: The trend is your friend until it breaks! We reaching key areas, my longer term target if we break above 110 areas next 120 IF we get there. I do really like to keep an open mind to either direction. However, we had a large pull back this morning which makes sense to have. Keep an eye on the key areas we at break above or below shorter term and longer term the big question is - Is this a pattern brewing of a rising wedge to have a pull back medium term? Things to keep in mind are the key fundamental data we had FOMC yesterday dovish and 75 hike it was expected the slimmer chance weeks went by of 100 and that did sound like a joke imo. However, we pulling back FX Majors check HT as it really key and we entering near end of month as well. Remember: Follow your own trade plan, it will make you very successful. TJ
ICEUS:DX1!
by Trade_Journal
Bitcoin Ultimatum - It Must Breakout Or It Will Surely BreakdownHello Traders, Here is my analysis for Bitcoin. Let me start by saying that BTC is in a very precarious position. Heres why... 1) It's just barely above major support at $17.6K - If (most likely when) it breaks, there is no doubt that we will see massive capitulation. Potentially seeing a double digit % move down the day it breaks. 2) The descending trendline connecting the November highs to now will act as major resistance. - BTC needs to break this trendline to have any hopes of a large rally anytime soon. The reason that this puts Bitcoin in a precarious position is because it is trading in a larger wedge where both the descending trendline and $17.6K major support will soon converge. *There can only be one of two outcomes in this situation: 1) Either we breakout 2) Or we breakdown What do I think will happen? - First off, I think regardless of whether we breakout or breakdown, BTC has not bottomed and will hit at a minimum $12K, but probably more like $8K. - I think we could see a short term rally this week, potentially taking BTC up to the trendline to test it. - Given the strong Bearish climate and weaker relative strength in BTC, I think it's unlikely that BTC breaks out of the trendline and will most likely get rejected from it. What happens if BTC breaks the trendline? Won't that be Bullish? - Yes, it would be bullish but for the short term. - BTC would likely rally after breaking the trendline, probably back up to about $24K. - But being as we're in a bear market, eventually the bears would take back control of BTC and short it into oblivion, back below support at $17.6K and lower. ***If BTC breaks out of the trendline, don't get fooled into thinking that the Bear market is over and BTC has put in a bottom. Smart money will be looking to trap traders in a scenario like this. Why is this important? - Essentially, no matter what, I'm bearish on BTC. - This means that I believe there is a very high probability that ultimately BTC will trend much much lower. - I'm preparing my shorts, I'm planning my trades, and I'm looking for the ideal entry for a short position which I will ride out below the $17.6K support. Be Beary cautious in this type of market environment! Thats it for this BTC post, thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by natef1
1
GRT DAILY! Following through price action?Here is a potential outcome for GRT. This chart is currently meeting all the criteria for a reversal, but we are still not out of woods yet. We have Class A bullish divergence on the oscillators, as well as retracting to the .866 while in the golden pattern completion zone. We are getting some thrust and now we will see if we get that follow through price action and really bust out. Obviously this is BTC depending, but this asset performed very nice in the last run where it was in the high $2s… ANY asses that loses its value 98% will be very appealing to experienced and seasonal traders as the value potential is out of this world. This is where where the whales go and start bottom feed. To the depths of the ocean to become big and strong while the smaller fish get scraps at the surface while taking the fishermen's bait just to get yanked in, chopped up and spit out. Be a apex predator, not a clown fish. Own the top off the food chain….
Long
by BShellhammer
1
AMD + The Power Of Confluence - Measured Move & Target LevelsHello Traders, here is my analysis for AMD. - I apologize for the crammed chart, I did the best I could to keep the chart as simple yet detailed as possible. - Onto the analysis... First off, if you're a new trader, this chart is an example of what the planning process for a swing trade could look like. Of course there are many different strategies, but for me this is the process I go through when planning a trade. ***Before I start with the breakdown, I want to point out how amazing TA can be: If you look at the chart, at the ("4)Bounce/Rally Target Level") at $85.50. That target was taken from finding the average % gain of the prior 3 bounces (36.76%) and projected it from $62 (Probable bottom). Whats so amazing is that the $85.50 level is also key resistance and directly at the descending trendline. - This amount of confluence tells me that there is a high probability that this move could play out in a similar fashion. Like many other charts, AMD is overdue for a bounce... The questions that need to be answered are: 1) What level do I think it will bounce from? 2) What is the potential profit target? 3) Where do I enter positions? 1) "Where do I think it will bounce from?" - To answer this, I used technical analysis to come up with the most probable level for a bottom. - $62 is where I believe AMD is most likely to bounce from. *As you can see AMD is oversold, this tells me that the sellers are likely becoming exhausted and will eventually stop selling. *It looks as though AMD may make a measured move (measure the prior high to swing low = 25.63% - Project 25.63% from the swing high at $85.5 = $62) *The measured move to $62 also happens to be a Gap Fill level which adds confluence to this potential target and adds confidence to this level being a bottom. 2) "What is the potential profit target?" - The potential profit target for a bounce is $85.50 (This is from being projected off $62) *I took the averages of the prior three bounces (36.76%) and projected it from the "probable bounce level" 3) "Where do I enter positions?" - First off, you never want to try and time the bottom for one entry. It's rare that anyone consistently can time bottoms. - More often than not you'll miss entries this way. *What you want to do is figure out where you think price will likely bounce from, in this case $62 and enter multiple positions at key support levels on the way down. *As you can see I've labeled Entries 1-3 on the chart. *Enter small positions (start with 1% - 2% of your portfolio) *You never want to be in a position where one trade can wipe you out. *Entering large positions is not trading, it's gambling. You increase the risk to a point where the probabilities are no longer in your favor. *Entering small positions ensures stability and longevity as a trader. That's it, I know it was long but I hope that this was informative. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by natef1
8
Bitcoin Scalp Signal for Day Trading🖥️ We have determined there is a 60% chance Bitcoin will Rise from our current entry point. 📉 LONG - BTC : $18,990📉 💵 Length of trade: we are expecting BTC to hit a $300 scalp, with a high end of $600, and a minimum expectation of $225. 🕰️ Duration of trade: we are expecting the Min. Profit Target to occur within 4.5 hours of this signal. Then we see a maximum duration of 12 hours . 🏛️ Be Mindful The Federal Reserve will announce its rate hike decision at 2pm EST. This is almost certainly going to cause big swings, both Up & Down. If they announce </= .75 BTC will likely have a bullish outcome. A 1.0% hike or great will send BTC to probably below 17k.
Long
by VirlVideo
1
FOMC - Will We See A Repeat Of Last Week's Sell-Off?Hello Traders, Here is a quick post about the FOMC meeting and prior FED news. I'm partly anticipating for price to test the key resistance level on Tuesday, the day before the FOMC meeting. - My concern is that price did the same thing last week the day prior to the CPI Data being released... Obviously a large sell-off followed. I don't think it's a coincidence how things played out last week, it was obviously deliberate. - Smart money positioned the price exactly where they wanted it to be... - With this in mind I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened this week. So my question is... Will we see a repeat of last weeks sell off when price came into a key level the day before? It's something to think about, I just wanted to share this with anyone who might be curious. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
AMEX:SPY
by natef1
4
Tesla Short Trade Setup - Key Levels Approaching!Hello Traders, Here is a short trade that I am planning to take if the right conditions arise. First off, I'm sharing this setup for educational purposes. Please only take trades that you are comfortable with. Alright, onto the trade setup... This is a trade that I've been eyeing for the past week or so, with Tesla approaching a breakout of the prior range highs at $315 we may get a potential short trade opportunity. To understand why I am taking this trade you have to understand that the broader market is very bearish at the moment. - Yes Tesla has had a nice run, however eventually the Bearish nature of this market will catch up to Tesla and will eventually take it much lower in prices. - Knowing this, I can take a short trade at key resistance levels, knowing that there is a high probability that Tesla will reverse and trend lower. Of course nothing is 100%, however I would say that Tesla heading in the near future is a high probability. ***Trade Setup*** 1) I will be entering "Short Entry #1" at the resistance level of $325 2) IF price continues higher up to the descending trendline, I will enter "Short Entry #2" at around $347. (Price changes depending on where it hits the trendline) ***Profit Taking*** There are 2 ways to approach this... Method 1) You can take full profits at the trendline marked "Take Profit" Method 2) You can take 1/2 at the trendline and the other half at the range lows. (You would use a trailing stop to protect your position and cash in nice profits if price reverses.) - I almost always use a version of method #2 (however if something unexpected occurs or I become unsure of the market I may opt to take full profits at a particular level.) Remember, this is a swing trade, to take trades like this you have to be comfortable with staying in positions for weeks at a time. If you're a novice and have yet to master your emotions, a swing trade setup like this might not be for you. - If you aren't comfortable with a trade like this, I would recommend paper trading as practice first. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by natef1
Long Trade on AB - Possible entry Sep. 19 2022Trend: Uptrend since May 2022, confirmed UT with break of previous high in June. Nice pattern with higher highs and higher lows. Currently 3rd bounce on the trend line. Also, previous downtrend line has now been used as support. Setup: Calculation with candle touching trend line on Sep. 16 Fluff 1% Take Profit determined with angle of previous bounces and channel resistance line Risk Reward Ratio >3:1 (3.33) Place trade to enter with stop order on Sep. 17 DYOR Best, Raphaela
NYSE:ABLong
by tradeisela
4
BTC - Don't Be Fooled If A Breakout Occurs! Hello Traders, here is an educational post about BTC. I've heard a lot of people talking about the descending trendline connecting the pivot highs from the November highs. - There seems to be this idea that if BTC were to breakout of this descending trendline, this means that the bear cycle is over and BTC is going to the moon... However thats not necessarily true. Of course nobody know what is really going to happen... however given the current economic climate and taking in past historical data from broader markets, there is a high probability that even if BTC breaks out it can still trend much lower before finally putting in a bottom and taking off. This type of retrace after a breakout in a bear cycle is by no means uncommon. In fact there are tons of examples where stocks will travel much lower after breaking out where they finally retest the same trendline and take off. - I would anticipate a decent size initial rally after the breakout, and this is where tons of novice traders will be fooled into taking longs thinking that the bottom is in. - However smart money loves to drive prices lower when the sentiment is incredibly Bullish. This is what they do... they manipulate people into giving them their money. Whether BTC breaks out or not, I'm anticipating BTC ultimately retracing back to $12K or potentially lower. - As you can see, whether BTC breaks out or not, there is a path for it to hit $12K. Be cautious and educate yourself as much as you can. It's markets like this that strips novice traders of their capital ultimately forcing them to quit... - If you're prepared and aware, you can navigate these markets while protecting your capital. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by natef1
5
QQQ- Bullish & Bearish Signals / Potential Trade SetupsHello Trader, here is my analysis for the QQQ. This week is a big week with the FED meeting on Wednesday. Pay close attention to price action leading up to that event. - If price comes into a key level the prior day, there is the potential for another large sell-off if institutions don't like what they hear. - It's also possible that we don't see much action until Wednesday as trades may want to wait and hear what the FED has to say. Onto the analysis... I've labeled the key factors that the Bulls will have to overcome if they want to have a shot at taking back control. - Right now the Bears have full control, especially considering that we have 2 lower highs in this current trend and have yet to see the bulls make a higher low. KEY LEVEL TO WATCH $293 is currently the most important level. If the Bulls can't take price above that level, they are in big trouble. - Think of it like this... Above $293 = Bullish. Below $293 = Bearish Potential Trade Setups To Watch For Shorts - If the Bulls can take price above $293, I will be scouting for short positions at key levels. - It's to early to say what that is because there are a lot of factors that come into play when planning trades, however the descending trendline, ,moving averages, and prior pivot high at $310 are all levels I'm keeping an eye on for a short. Longs - $269 is the main level I'm keeping an eye on for a potential long at the moment. There are several things that would have to happen first for me to take a trade at that level, primarily the speed at which price comes into that level. I will keep everyone update on this chart if a good trade entry arises. Remember, the QQQ is currently in a downtrend and the Bears have control. If the Bulls are going to take control there are many things that must happen first. As a trader looking at this chart, we know that there is a higher probability of trend continuation to the downside until the Bulls take back key levels. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by natef1
5
Tesla - Bullish And Bearish Signals To Watch For.Hello Traders, here is my analysis for Tesla. Listed on the chart are the Bullish and Bearish signals that I will be watching for. - At the moment, a trade setup has not formed that I would be interested in, however I am keeping an eye on the price action to see if pattern forms that I can play. Price is either going to breakout and Bulls will take price higher... Or the Bears are going to take control and drive prices lower... - Either way, I've listed the signals that I'll be watching to give me a clue as to whether the Bulls or bears will take control. What trade Setups am I looking for? If price trends down but has not yet broken the ascending trendline - - Im looking for a potential entry long off the ascending trendline. (I want to see price hold this trendline first) - I will also be looking for oversold conditions on the lower time frame RSI - I will be looking for lower time frame patterns or entries. - If the trendline holds, I see oversold conditions, and an entry pattern develops = I will potentially take this trade. If price breaks down below ascending trendline - - I will be looking for a potential Double Bottom long entry. - I will need to see similar signals as listed above, entry pattern, oversold conditions, the support level must hold. - It also depends on how quickly price comes into this level, the quicker it falls to this level, the better the odds of a bounce. If price breaks resistance and rallies - - I will be looking for potential short entries when price is way overextended and at key resistance levels. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by natef1
15