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BTC - Don't Be Fooled If A Breakout Occurs! Hello Traders, here is an educational post about BTC. I've heard a lot of people talking about the descending trendline connecting the pivot highs from the November highs. - There seems to be this idea that if BTC were to breakout of this descending trendline, this means that the bear cycle is over and BTC is going to the moon... However thats not necessarily true. Of course nobody know what is really going to happen... however given the current economic climate and taking in past historical data from broader markets, there is a high probability that even if BTC breaks out it can still trend much lower before finally putting in a bottom and taking off. This type of retrace after a breakout in a bear cycle is by no means uncommon. In fact there are tons of examples where stocks will travel much lower after breaking out where they finally retest the same trendline and take off. - I would anticipate a decent size initial rally after the breakout, and this is where tons of novice traders will be fooled into taking longs thinking that the bottom is in. - However smart money loves to drive prices lower when the sentiment is incredibly Bullish. This is what they do... they manipulate people into giving them their money. Whether BTC breaks out or not, I'm anticipating BTC ultimately retracing back to $12K or potentially lower. - As you can see, whether BTC breaks out or not, there is a path for it to hit $12K. Be cautious and educate yourself as much as you can. It's markets like this that strips novice traders of their capital ultimately forcing them to quit... - If you're prepared and aware, you can navigate these markets while protecting your capital. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by natef1
5
QQQ- Bullish & Bearish Signals / Potential Trade SetupsHello Trader, here is my analysis for the QQQ. This week is a big week with the FED meeting on Wednesday. Pay close attention to price action leading up to that event. - If price comes into a key level the prior day, there is the potential for another large sell-off if institutions don't like what they hear. - It's also possible that we don't see much action until Wednesday as trades may want to wait and hear what the FED has to say. Onto the analysis... I've labeled the key factors that the Bulls will have to overcome if they want to have a shot at taking back control. - Right now the Bears have full control, especially considering that we have 2 lower highs in this current trend and have yet to see the bulls make a higher low. KEY LEVEL TO WATCH $293 is currently the most important level. If the Bulls can't take price above that level, they are in big trouble. - Think of it like this... Above $293 = Bullish. Below $293 = Bearish Potential Trade Setups To Watch For Shorts - If the Bulls can take price above $293, I will be scouting for short positions at key levels. - It's to early to say what that is because there are a lot of factors that come into play when planning trades, however the descending trendline, ,moving averages, and prior pivot high at $310 are all levels I'm keeping an eye on for a short. Longs - $269 is the main level I'm keeping an eye on for a potential long at the moment. There are several things that would have to happen first for me to take a trade at that level, primarily the speed at which price comes into that level. I will keep everyone update on this chart if a good trade entry arises. Remember, the QQQ is currently in a downtrend and the Bears have control. If the Bulls are going to take control there are many things that must happen first. As a trader looking at this chart, we know that there is a higher probability of trend continuation to the downside until the Bulls take back key levels. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by natef1
5
Tesla - Bullish And Bearish Signals To Watch For.Hello Traders, here is my analysis for Tesla. Listed on the chart are the Bullish and Bearish signals that I will be watching for. - At the moment, a trade setup has not formed that I would be interested in, however I am keeping an eye on the price action to see if pattern forms that I can play. Price is either going to breakout and Bulls will take price higher... Or the Bears are going to take control and drive prices lower... - Either way, I've listed the signals that I'll be watching to give me a clue as to whether the Bulls or bears will take control. What trade Setups am I looking for? If price trends down but has not yet broken the ascending trendline - - Im looking for a potential entry long off the ascending trendline. (I want to see price hold this trendline first) - I will also be looking for oversold conditions on the lower time frame RSI - I will be looking for lower time frame patterns or entries. - If the trendline holds, I see oversold conditions, and an entry pattern develops = I will potentially take this trade. If price breaks down below ascending trendline - - I will be looking for a potential Double Bottom long entry. - I will need to see similar signals as listed above, entry pattern, oversold conditions, the support level must hold. - It also depends on how quickly price comes into this level, the quicker it falls to this level, the better the odds of a bounce. If price breaks resistance and rallies - - I will be looking for potential short entries when price is way overextended and at key resistance levels. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by natef1
15
Ethereum - Support & Resistance Levels - Potential ScenariosHello Traders, here are support and resistance levels for Ethereum. These are the key support and resistance levels. If price breaks support at $1,425, then the next target is support at $1,250. There are 3 potential scenarios that I think are likely to happen, they are labeled on the chart. One key thing to keep an eye on is the ascending trendline, it could potentially act as resistance if price trends up so price will need to break above it. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
by natef1
7
BTC - Levels To Watch ForHello Traders, Here is a quick update on BTC Since my post yesterday, BTC broke lower to the Major Support level at $19.5K. If this level fails that will be very Bearish for BTC. If the Bulls can hold and break above this level, then that is a strong signal for the Bulls and they will have temporary control. However, If the Bears can break price below this level, the Bears will clearly have control. This is an important level to keep an eye on. If the Bulls take control we can potentially expect a rally in the near term. If the Bears take control we can expect lower levels, possibly back to range lows in the coming weeks. Also, just a bit of quick education... The more times that price hits a level, the weaker it gets. - Think of it like someone trying to kick a door down, the more times they kick the door the weaker it gets, until eventually, it breaks. Its the same thing with support and resistance levels. - As you can see, the $19.5K level has been hit several times, this tells me that its currently in a weaker state and will be harder for the bulls to defend. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by natef1
SPY - Is Smart Money Playing Games? Don't Be Fooled!Hello Traders, here is my analysis for the SPY. Let me start by saying that currently I'm unsure as to what the SPY will do over the coming days... However, given what we've seen recently, I think that there is a relatively high probability that we see a scenario like the one I'm proposing will take place. A scenario where: 1) Smart money takes price lower to grab liquidity and fool novice traders 2) A corrective rally to the upside will follow, back to the top of the descending trend line near $420 3) A large sell-off will occur breaking the range lows Lets see how this plays out over the coming day's / weeks. In the meantime we can use this to guide us into taking positions at the right levels if this type of scenario plays out. For example; Since I'm anticipating a scenario like this to take place, I'm starting to plan to take longs and shorts at key S&R levels. 1) I will consider taking a long on SPY through averaging in at various levels as price travels down from $390 (Since I'm anticipating a rally soon) 2) I will likely enter a short on the SPY when it reaches key resistance at $411, $420 and $429 since I'm anticipating a large sell off after at some point. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading.
AMEX:SPY
by natef1
4
BTC - Descending Trendline= Strong Barrier for Bulls to OvercomeHello Traders, here is my analysis for BTC/USD. Let me start off by saying, BTC has a massive barrier to overcome to turn bullish. What is this barrier I speak of? ***The Descending Trendline that been plaquing BTC since the November 2021 high. What does this mean for BTC? - Basically, this trendline is MASSIVE MASSIVE Resistance for BTC and will require a valiant effort from the bulls to overcome. Is it possible for the bulls to break through this trendline? - Of course, but highly unlikely. - Eventually this trendline will break, but under the right economic conditions. What type of economic conditions? - Right now the markets are panicking, especially after the economic data that came out yesterday. We are currently in what is considered a "Risk-off" environment where larger traders and smart money consider it too risky to trade asset classes like crypto or volatile stocks. - BTC will need to be in an environment where the economy is showing signs of improvement for a stable period of time, bringing larger investors back into play in the riskier assets such as BTC and crypto. - Keep an eye on the stock market, BTC is highly correlated with stocks such as the Nasdaq, SPY and right now even copper. Once The broader stock market turns Bullish, look for BTC to turn Bullish. Onto the actual analysis... - Like I said, the descending trendline is going to act as major resistance, so from a trading perspective we know that... 1) The upside is limited (to that trendline) 2) The trendline could make for a good shorting opportunity 3) If price does end up breaking the trendline, thats extremely bullish for BTC and we can change our opinion form bearish to bullish. What's likely to happen in the short term? 1) BTC will most likely retest the descending trendline 2) BTC will get rejected off that trendline and inevitably retest the range lows at $17.5K. 3) Eventually BTC will most likely break the range lows followed by a massive sell off. How to trade: 1) As long as BTC holds support, you could potentially enter long and sell at the trendline 2) You could enter short at the trendline and take profits at the range lows. ***These are just what I consider to be the most likely scenarios for BTC, before entering any trade make sure you plan it out properly and have good risk management. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by natef1
2
Ethereum Classic Wyckoff RE-AccumulationMost are familiar with accumulation/distribution schematics but, most are not familiar with reaccumulation schematics which you find in STRONG markets & have many similarities to distribution. There are a few ways this can go moving forward. The main thing to look for is the creek forming and the volume when the price action comes down to the lower of the range again. Being that ETC has alot of miners jumping back over to mine ETC since the ETH merge is right around the corner ETC has some strong price action coming in. Here are the definitions for the for the accronyms on this RE-Accumulation schematic for a better understanding of each move. PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests. AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC. PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching. BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant. LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.
by Savvythe1
S&P 500 - A shift from Bullish to Bearish?Hello Traders, With the dump yesterday, Imo the market has shifted from more Bullish to more Bearish. Of course the Bulls can still regain control in the short term, but its an uphill battle for sure. I'll break it down in the most simple terms: Above $390 = Bullish Below $390 = Bearish Use this only as a guide to help manage risk, the trend can still be long term bearish while price is above short term bullish above $390. However in the short term, if price is above $390, then the bulls still have a shot at regaining control. Here are some things to watch for: 1) Key support at $390 2) The descending trendline connecting the range highs (May act as resistance) 3) The 50 period EMA (Price will likely test the 50 EMA, potential rejection from the bears) 4) The Bears will be scouting a lower high anywhere below resistance at $411 5) A break of the prior high at $411 will be very bullish for the short term 6) The ascending trendline connecting the range lows (This is vital for the bulls that price does not fall below this trend line. 7) Larger wedge formation forming (Price could trade within this range for the next couple months) If price breaks below $390 expect a quick sell off in price. With the current economic conditions, the broader market will likely stay bearish for several more months. Remember, Bear cycles can still have melt your face off rallies. However given the CPI data yesterday and what that means for potential rate hikes, I'm expecting price to eventually head lower. Start planning your shorts and be patient. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
AMEX:SPY
by natef1
4
Where to place your STP LOSS is important & can be misleading Choosing your STP loss determines your risk, and is essential part of executing your trade. On this trade analysis, we are looking at ticker F (Ford Motors) using the weekly (W) chart as the active chart, the price is selling off & coming into a Demand Zone (DZ). This DZ is also the last higher Low HL of the long-term (M) monthly uptrend. my trading strategy; makes perfect sense of placing LNG entry, at this level. Order entered & waiting like a snipper in the DZ, surly enough the price penetrates into the DZ & the LNG order is executed at $12.90, now where to place your STP LOSS, meaning at which point do you determine the trade has gone against you & you need to exit & cut your losses short. There are many strategies for placing your stop loss, some of the common ones, are placing the stop loss below the DZ, some other strategies offer a margin as a buffer, for example if price violates the DZ by lets say 0.50 points, am out & the STP Loss is triggered. the stop loss placement strategy that i used in this trade required a close of a candle stick below the DZ, few days after, once that occurred I executed you my STP loss, and was out at 11.30 points loss, so 1.60 loss per share. that is within my Risk to Reward ratio Now, the trade was still a loss, yet it was not a bust; simply because I anticipated this risk within expected range of my trade plan. in other words, I followed my trading plan & rules; that really matters. Following a trading plan is how novice traders become trading sharks. Obviously it hurts the ego to witness price rallies to $15 and above; shortly after closing below the DZ & triggering my stop-loss; but thats life, you can't make sense of it all, the best we can do is learn how to navigate it. *Active Chart (W) *Long-term chart (M) *Enter timing chart (D)
NYSE:FLong
by greatful-me
BTCUSDT - Short Idea for the Next WeekHi all, This is my first post so please take it easy on me! Here's a very rough idea of what I think may play out over the next few days. Share your thoughts and let me know if you have any ideas on how I can improve my TA/Harmonic usage! I believe the recent bullishness in BTC is a fakeout/relief due to yesterday's drop. I'm looking to short BTC once we hit the 19400-19800 range and expect it to fall to the 17300 - 17900 area. Good luck! Also, this is not financial advice, it's my first chart. lol.
Short
by CryptoBum999
1