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Bitcoin Analysis - New Parallel Channel? Hello Traders! Here is my analysis for BTCUSD. - First I want to say, I am currently sitting the market out for the time being. After incurring such massive losses on LUNA, I'm going to take a step back until BTC stabilizes or behaves in a more predictable manner. If BTC was to stabilize tomorrow I would happily start trading, but until then I'm playing it safe. So how will I know when BTC stabilizes??? - One of the keys to success in trading is identifying predictable patterns, levels, formations, etc. in a chart. - As of recent BTC has been incredibly unpredictable, which has made it very hard to accurately predict price movement. - However... BTC may be trading within a parallel channel which would give us a better idea of the range in which BTC most likely will trade. - If BTC can hold this channel, I will trade BTC between the channel. - If the channel is broken, expect continuation to whichever direction price broke from. Do Parallel Channels really work? - Parallel channels are one of the most powerful formations in trading. - Personally my primary intraday trading strategies are based off of channels and Fibs. - If you remember, BTC was trading between a parallel channel from January to nearly May, and traded between the channel perfectly for those months which made trading BTC very predictable. - As you can see price wicked below the channel last night but got a very nice bounce off that level. This is the first signal that BTC may be trading between the channel. How Do We Know If The Channel Is Invalidated? - It's very simple... If price breaks either below or above the channel (and does not immediately come back in) then the channel is broken. So what's next for BTC? ***1st let me say, I will be keeping a very close eye on this channel. If it holds we will have an excellent channel to trade between. - It's very hard to say at the moment, the events of the past couple days were unprecedented so that really makes it hard to predict what BTC will do. - But... I would say the probabilities favor BTC staying in the range of $28.5K - $31K over the weekend. - Truthfully BTC is overdue fro a large bounce and has been for days, but Crypto has a large dark cloud over it right now so undoubtedly that is affecting positive price movement. How should you trade? - If you are not an experienced trader I would be very cautious right now. - Keep position sizes small 1-4% of portfolio, and be very selective with trades. - Watch for BTC to go a few days without another large sell off, this will indicate some stabilization and may be a safer environment to trade. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading. I apologize for not being that active this week, I got absolutely wrecked the other day and needed a break.
by natef1
1
BTC Short Term Targets - Will Price Continue to Fall?Hello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD. I want to start by saying... Hang in there everyone and don't give up. - The past few days have been unprecedented in a lot of ways for Crypto, specifically BTC and LUNA. - Personally I lost a massive amount of money on LUNA. I had a large long position that was liquidated and I also had a portion of my money in UST which I lost as well. In attempts to keep my LUNA position from being liquidated I had to buy more LUNA on 3 separate occasions to lower my liquidation price, ultimately I was liquidated. - In total I lost nearly 30% of my portfolio between LUNA and UST. This whole situation sucks and a lot of people lost an incredible amount of money. - If you're unfamiliar with how this happened, the short of it is this: - LUNA has a stable coin backed by BTC called UST. - The stable coin became unpegged, panic ensued and people stared selling in mass driving down the price of UST. - LUNA had to sell their BTC to bring the UST price back up. This also drove the price of BTC down. - As of today LUNA is down 85% since a couple days ago. So if you had a position in LUNA I feel for you. It's sad how many people were affected by no fault of their own. On to BTC This is going to be short. ***One thing to pay attention to is the releasing of the CPI number at 8:30a.m. - If the CPI number is better than expected, the market will rally. If it's worse... well it's going to be another painful day. - BTC tagged major support all the way down just below $30K. Honestly I wasn't expecting that to happen so quick, but with the whole LUNA situation it was the perfect storm. - On a positive note, BTC is holding major support very well. - If the CPI number is good, I'm expecting for BTC to get a nice bounce. BTC Short Term Targets - The 1st target I'm eyeing for BTC is at $34.4K. I think this will be easy for BTC to hit on a bounce. - The 2nd target is at $37.5K. This would be the best case scenario and is a lower probability move. - The highest I think BTC could go before getting rejected and trending lower is the $37.5K level. So this means I do not think BTC will go much higher than that for the coming months. - After BTC gets rejected from resistance it will trend back to the $29K zone. This will be a massive test of support, I don't think it will hold on this retest and will fall below. - What will follow is another massive sell off like we saw the past few days. Summary - BTC should bounce - 1st target $34.4K - 2nd target $37.5K - BTC will get rejected, then trend lower and break $29K support - Followed by another large sell off ***On a side note*** I'm not sure how active I'll be this week. I lost a lot of money yesterday and need to take some time to figure things out. I'll try to post if I can but I will be back. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by natef1
11
Bitcoin at very important level#Bitcoin as anticipated hit $34k precisely which we have been calling for few days now, when everyone else online was screaming to go long and got trapped in a nasty fake out. We currently are seeing #btc at 33.5k and is at the most important level in this cycle to determine its next directional flow. A break of $29,990 will most definitely send #bitcoin to 20-16.8k zone. Which is the next Higher TF demand zone. Always remember, we are doing this completely for free , cause we have your best interest at heart for our fellow crypto investors. We are not “moon boys” or typical crypto influencers who ask you to buy every dip. Nope, We ask you to wait for precise levels and to buy as low as possible. The next buy zone is $20-16.8K, SET YOUR ORDERS AND BE READY.
by CryptoBlanco
BTC Long Trade Setup - BTC Ready To Bounce?Hello Traders, here is my analysis / trade setup for BTCUSD. Not much has changed since my last BTC post, the market has been asleep for the past couple of days so there hasn't been much action. Tomorrow when the stock market opens volatility will increase and BTC should start to move. BTC hit the $34.4K Support level as predicted... Now the question is "Will this level hold and bounce, or will BTC break lower?" - Truthfully there is no way of knowing, all we can do is make predications based off of probabilities. - Right now the probabilities favor BTC holding the $34.4K support level and getting a bounce from here. However... we have to be prepared for all scenario's. So if BTC doesn't hold the $34.4K level and breaks down further, how low could it go and what do we do? - The next Major Support level for BTC is at $32.9K. This is the next level that BTC would hit. - This level is a very strong level and the probabilities of BTC getting a sizeable bounce at this level are high. - So if BTC hits this level and you entered a long at $34.4K, you will add to your position which will lower your average price. - This is called DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) and is a common strategy What is the Target Level for BTC on a Bounce? - The probabilities favor BTC getting a larger bounce, especially considering how massive the dump was the other day. - It's possible that BTC rallies and re-tests the major resistance at $37.5K before getting rejected and heading lower. - So my target take profit is at $37.5K How I take Profits - Where you want to take profits is up to you... I typically play between support and resistance and take partial profits at the .618 FIB for example. - So for myself I will unload 50% profits at the .618 FIB at $36,346, raise my stop loss to that level and ride the rest of the profits out with the target being the next resistance of $37.5K. If $37.5K is hit, I might unload another 25% of profits and ride out the rest to potentially make even more. - At the very least price might come back and hit the .618 Fib level which is where my stop loss is so I'm guaranteed profits there. What's Next for BTC? - After this scenario has played out, I am expecting BTC to eventually head even lower. Re-testing the Major low of last year at around $29K. - I would expect a very large bounce at that level. - It could be several weeks to months before that level is hit, we will just have to wait and see how things play out to get a better idea of what BTC will do. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by natef1
Ethereum Support & Resistance Levels - Long Trade SetupHello Traders, here are key Support and Resistance Levels for ETHUSD. - It's important to have key levels drawn on your charts at all times. - Personally I have 2 computer monitors. One is a HTF chart with levels drawn like with this ETH chart. The 2nd monitor is a LTF chart with multiple indicators. - Use these levels to help determine where ETH will trade next. - ETH should follow BTC, but keep in mind ETH typically outperforms BTC so it may have stronger bounces and smaller pullbacks. Trade Setup ***We can use the BTC chart to coordinate what level ETH might hit if BTC falls to $34.4K. - Most likely the $34.4K level for BTC would be around $2,650 for ETH which is also the Ascending Trend Line which acts as Major support. - This could potentially be a great entry point for a long position as long as ETH hits this level soon. - The take profit would around $2,825 which is the top of the falling channel and also between the .5 and .618 FIB levels. (Golden Pocket) What's next for ETH? - I'm expecting BTC to bounce in the coming days in which case ETH should as well. Most likely to the Take Profit zone mentioned above. - Beyond that if BTC trend lower ETH will most likely break the bottom ascending trend line which will be very Bearish for ETH. - Expect ETH to continue lower hitting each one of the support levels in the coming weeks / months. - Bounces should occur at major support levels Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
Long
by natef1
13
Bitcoin Analysis - Bear Flag Breakdown Has InitiatedHello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD. Wow... what a day for the markets. If you recall in my post yesterday, I stated that the rally after the FOMC meeting was due to the news and was not a technical bounce. Today we see the result of that "fakeout". Since I started posting on trading view I have been warning traders that BTC was trading in mature Bear Flag formation and that a breakdown was imminent. - That breakdown has been initiated... *** Note on Technical Analysis*** - On April 30th I made a post titled "Is a breakdown to $34K Imminent?" No I don't have a magical crystal ball, but I do know how to read the charts. I tell you this not to brag but to show you that it is absolutely possible to predict price movements by using technical analysis and closely watching for specific signals that the chart will give you. - I'm sure you've seen the "Moonboys" on youtube and social media claiming "BTC is headed for new ATH's! and it's impossible for BTC to break $37K!" - One of the keys to success in trading is being direction neutral and not letting your emotions cloud your judgement. - You want to approach trading from a logical perspective not emotional. BTC Analysis: Bearish - BTC finally got the big move we were expecting. As you know BTC has been trading in a macro bear flag for months and was showing signs of weakness in the last couple of weeks. - Our target of $34.4K has not been hit yet but most likely will be soon. - I am expecting a decent size bounce off that level possibly up to $37.5K, which is major support turned resistance. - If BTC is rejected off $37.5K expect further downside continuation back to $34.4K then to the next major support level at $32.9K. - Eventually BTC will trend down the the low $30K region and may consolidate there for a while before continuing lower. What would make BTC Bullish again? - Th first major resistance level that BTC would need to break to have any Bullish hopes would be the major resistance at $37.5K - Beyond that, the analysis from yesterdays post still applies which is BTC would need to break $43K to have a shot at $50K - Based off my analysis there is a very low probability of this happening. But it's important to consider all possible scenarios. ***Keep in mind these moves could happen in days or weeks, either way as traders we do not care. We will adjust accordingly and maneuver in accordance with the charts! Trade Setup **1st, this trade setup is only valid through tomorrow morning. I like to take high probability trades and the longer it takes BTC to hit $34.4K the lower the probability of a large bounce. - I will enter a long position in BTC if it breaks $35K by tomorrow morning. (If I decide to wait longer I will let you guys know in a comment update) - My entry is anything below $35K - There are 2 "Take Profit" levels 1) $36,321 - .618 FIB Level 2) $37.5K - Major Resistance - I will add to the position if BTC drops in price before bouncing. - Move stop loss into break even once price is in the profit by a couple percent. If you have any questions feel free to message me or comment below. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by natef1
4
Bitcoin Analysis - Is BTC Bullish Or Bearish? Hello Traders! Here is my analysis for BTCUSD. ** I'm sure most of you really want to know which direction BTC is headed... Is BTC Bullish or Bearish. We are going to answer that today. Following the FOMC meeting today, BTC had a nice little rally. If you recall I stated in my last BTC post that it was possible BTC got a bounce to $40K, which is the exact level it hit. For anyone new to crypto, today was a perfect example of how particular news can greatly affect markets. *****IMPORTANT NOTE***** - Keep in mind the rally today was based off the news and was not a "technical" bounce. If BTC made this move without any news today I would be slightly more bullish on BTC for the short term. But the way I see it, the move today was a result of the news and made BTC look more Bullish than it is. So does the rally today mean that BTC is Bullish?! - No... BTC is still overall Bearish. Keep in mind that even during Bear cycles, the market can have melt your face off rallies. - One of the common mistakes new traders make is they will see BTC have a rally like today and think "wow BTC must've reversed from bearish to bullish!" How do we know BTC is still Bearish? - If you take a look at my chart, on the far right I've split the chart in two and labeled "Micro Bearish & Micro Bullish" These are the dividing levels. - Anything below $43K is Bearish, anything above $43K is Micro Bullish giving BTC the chance to retest the Bear Flag resistance at $50K. - BTC is still Bearish for several reasons.. 1) Has not confirmed above the "Falling Wedge Resistance" 2) Has not confirmed above the yellow "Ascending Trend Line" 3) Has not broken the local high at $43K 4) For nearly a month BTC has been creating lower lows and higher lows 5) BTC is hovering around the $37.5K support and failing to break any meaningful resistance - As you can see BTC is doing nothing but printing Bearish signals and has yet to give us any meaningful Bullish signals in the past 2 weeks. **An important thing to keep in mind is that any "Bullish" move that BTC makes up to $43K is considered a corrective move and is not a reversal. BTC could rally straight up to $43K, but not break it and would still be considered Bearish. What's the next move for BTC? - My prior analysis still stands so feel free to check that out for more details on where BTC is headed in the longer term. - It's possible BTC could have a small continuation rally to $40.4K to the "Ascending trend line". It would need to confirm above before it could try at $43K. However I think that any price action above $41K is a low probability - BTC is still in the process of breaking down from the Macro Bear Flag, BTC should continue this process over the comings days / weeks. - Keep in mind BTC could hover and consolidate at this level for several days or more before making the next move down. - The next target price of $34.4K is still valid and am expecting BTC to hit the level in the short term. How am I trading this? - Personally, I took several trades over the past few days. I will try and make a post tomorrow regarding my trades and any potential trade setups. - I entered a BTC short today at $40K and will continue to add to the position if price moves up. The target for this short is the $34.4K level. - I would be cautious taking any longs considering most cryptos rallied 15%- 25%. Thanks everyone, remember you can alway message me or comment if you have any questions. Best of luck trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by natef1
11
How to Find Trade Entries - Identifying Formations Hello Traders, here is an educational post about identifying formations and finding trade entries. ***Sorry the chart is so sloppy, I originally did this on the 5m TF but TV would only let me post on the 15mTF so it squished the chart. - First I want to say thank you to everyone for the support, I'm happy to hear that people are learning from the material I post! - I decided to just post this tonight over a chart analysis due to the fact that I'm just waiting to see how the FOMC meeting goes tomorrow. The market will most likely be very volatile tomorrow so in the evening we will have a better idea of which direction the market is headed. ***Tomorrow is a very important day for the market's, keep an eye out for my post on what the meeting results mean for BTC. On to the topic! - I chose this chart location for a very specific reason... this is from when BTC bottomed the other day at $37.4K. The reason is to show you that even in a volatile market and when an asset is on the verge of breaking down, you can still take trades when the correct signals are given. - When BTC dumped I was sitting at the computer watching it occur, I was waiting for BTC to give me a signal that it was at it's bottom. Signal 1) It hit major support Signal 2) BTC created a flag pattern and Bullish consolidation Once the formation broke to the upside I knew it was likely Bullish price action would most likely continue and I was on the lookout for long entries. - As you can see in just one day alone, 3 Bullish formations occurred each playing out their technical targets. - I took each of the trades entering after the re-test for the first 2 and after the neckline was broken on the double bottom. ***It really is amazing how if you're patient the chart will present these trade setups to you, all you have to do is sit back and wait for the entry. - Another point to make is you can see how after BTC bottomed, it had to create it's own local support. It did this using swing high's and lows then retraced multiple times to confirm. That's it for tonight, thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
by natef1
8
$BTC - hopefully seeing a bullish breakout!sheeeesh bitcoin has been following my ideas exactly these days! :) I want to expose myself, so, I personally bought BTC today @ 38.5 K I thnk this might the end of the downtrend and we will see a bullish breakout from the falling wedge that has been forming since the first weeks of april if you want to take a closer look to my position, SL = 37.3K and TP=44000 ,but these levels might be changed in the future depending on how future price action goes what do you think about this? good idea or not? not financial advice of course, thus I am not suggesting to buy BTC
Long
by opop777
11