Week Ahead: Gas demand weaker
* Oil Formed a descending Triangle. Giving more bearish confirmation of target of $60
* FED giving signs of another 75-point basis hike. Recession fears are bearish for oil
* Demand slows down worries due to China’s zero COVID policy and OPEC+ cutting production
* Energy Price Cap
oil gapped up from opening on September 4th. Extended 3% by September 5th. Then losing almost 10% of gains. Reaching the price of $90 on September 5th, and dropping to $81 on September 8th. Then ended the week with a 5% gain. Closing weekly at the lowest since January 17th starting week.
Crude oil inventories rose last week by 8.844 million. Indicating demand is weakening. It was expected inventories were to fall by just 250,000 barrels.
I am anticipating oil to gap down during opening today. I am waiting to see how it will react to this trend line if it is going to continue down. Broke out of the descending triangle. Looks like it came back up for the last touch
On Sunday, September 4, 2022, Russia announced the closure of its main gas supply pipeline to Europe. This spiked fears into the energy market. Both Natural gas and crude oil both gapped 1% before the closing of September 4th. Monday, September 5th the OPEC+ held a meeting. Production was cut by 100,000 barrels a day for the month of October. OPEC+ is already below meeting production. Supply fears pushed Oil up 5%. After oil digested the news it fell from $90 to about $81.14.
Concerns of sluggish global demand outweighed the warning of President Vladimir Putin about the potential withdrawal of oil form of Russian Energy. Also new COVID lockdowns in China. Chinese imports fell 9.8% in August. The OPEC+ cut was larger for Asia and Europe indicating weaker anticipated demand.
Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt all oil and gas supplies if price caps are imposed on Russian energy resources. Hours later EU proposed to cap Russian gas.
The OPEC+ cut was done due to the possibility of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran. This deal is expected to release over 1 million BPD of supply into the market
