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GOLD 23/05: The Bears continue to attack!TVC:GOLD Gold prices (XAU/USD) remain at an intraday low near 1,960$ as it falls for the second day in a row while reversing Friday's corrective rally early Tuesday in Europe. In doing so, the precious metal bears the weight of a firmer US Dollar ahead of the first readings of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May from leading economies including the United States. A clear break of the ascending support line has formed in three days, now an immediate resistance near 1960$, suggesting that gold prices will continue to fall. Adding strength to the bearish trend are bearish MACD signals. However, the monthly low around 1,945$ could spur the bears as the RSI appears oversold. In the event that Gold prices still fall through 1955$, the late-March low near 1940$ could attract XAU/USD sellers. Meanwhile, a break of immediate support turning resistance near 1,960$ is not an open opportunity for Gold buyers as the 100-HMA hurdle near 1,975$ and the resistance line sloping down from May 11th. 5, near 1,970$ at the latest, could challenge the XAU/USD uptrend. Accordingly, a three-week descending resistance line near 1,990$ should act as the Gold Bears' final layer of defense.
TVC:GOLDShort
by DNA_TradingFX
14
GOLD.18/05: Prosperity for buyersTVC:GOLD Gold (XAU/USD) prices wound up at a three-week low, raising bids to print a slight gain around $80 in the early hours of today's Asian session. In doing so, the XAU/USD bears will get some steam after falling for the past two consecutive days due to the lack of key data/events. Even so, expectations about the US being able to ease its debt limit and join the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) negotiations are putting pressure on Gold prices. Accordingly, the yellow precious metal could drop to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-May rally, around $1,950, before testing the 100-DMA support at $1,930 and the Fibonacci ratio gold, 61.8% mark, about 1,915$ In case Gold price still falls past $1915, the possibility of witnessing a drop in XAU/USD cannot be ruled out. Additionally, the Gold price rally needs to sustain beyond the bottom of the stated triangle $2000, quickly followed by a circular resistance at $2,010. Even so, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the top of the aforementioned triangle near $2,020 and $2,055 respectively will be in the spotlight. BUY GOLD 1984 - 1983 StopLoss: 1980 Take Profit 1: 1989 Take Profit 2: 1994 Take Profit 3: 2000
TVC:GOLDLong
by DNA_TradingFX
3
EUR/JPY: 16/05. Good input for the sellerEUR/JPY is heading towards the neck and shoulder line after the cross broke out of the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 147.68. However, it still hesitates to achieve a decisive breakout that could invalidate the pattern. As the Asian session begins, EUR/JPY is trading around 147.95, down 0.06%. EUR/JPY remains skewed to neutral, although in the near term, will be tilted slightly to the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator shows a pause in the uptrend as the RSI is flat in the bullish zone, while the 3-day Rate of Change (RoC) is neutral. Although EUR/JPY spot price tests the head and shoulders neckline, the pattern remains intact. The confluence of the neckline and last year's high of 148.45 could make it difficult for buyers while being a good zone for EUR/JPY sellers. OANDA:EURJPY SELL EURJPY zone 148.00 - 148.10 SL: 148.35 TP: 147.00
Short
by DNA_TradingFX
1
EUR/USD: 16/05. Downtrend, ready sell?OANDA:EURUSD EUR/USD probes the boundaries of the 1.0910 barrier amid further downside correction in greenback and general improvement in sentiment around risk-related universe. Indeed, the pair picked up pace and further extended the rally from recent lows near 1.0855 despite sharp declines in US and German yields so far, while expectations of a temporary respite. stop the Fed normalization in June and raise interest rates further in June ECB for the next few months trending up. EUR/USD extends weekly rally and adds to Monday's promising price action, always with an immediate target of 1.0910. So far, the pair is up 0.17% at 1.0890 and a break through 1.1090 (weekly high April 26, 2023) will target 1.1110 (rounded high) on way to 1.1185 (weekly high March 21, 2022). Conversely, the next level of contention emerges at 1.0845 (monthly low May 15), followed by 1.0830 (monthly low April 10) and finally 1.0805 (100-day SMA). SELL EUR/USD zone 1.08950 - 1.09200 Stoploss 1.09500 Take Profit 1: 1.08500 Take Profit 2: 1.08000
Short
by DNA_TradingFX
1
Trading To Win "Those who lose - trade not to lose. Those who are successful - trade to Win." Losing Vs Winning Most traders are more focused on not losing than they are on winning. Do you understand what this means? This means you are acting not in your best interest, but against your self. By focusing on how much you can or might lose, or on not losing, you increase the likelihood of making mistakes which ultimately lead to a losing traders equation, and a negative equity curve. Profitable traders do not care about losing. They understand it is part of winning. They focus on winning. What is the best move in this moment? Should I get out or continue to hold based on what the market is telling me? Winning traders accept the risk totally and completely; before getting into the trade. In other words, they have already lost what is on the line. Therefore they act in their own best interest, not based on their thoughts about what they could lose, but based on what the market is telling them to do in this moment. Other than this psychological difference, here are a few other key components on How to Trade To Win. Defined Edge - Every trader who is making money in the market has some form of edge which he employs. Even if his edge is purely intuitive. This is extreme and rare however, and most traders have clearly defined their edge and will only trade that edge. This removes randomness. Many beginners think they are going to study the market and be able to trade the market no matter what it is doing (trade intuitively). This is simply not the case for most. The purpose of studying the market is to identify opportunities in form of an edge. An edge is a setup or context which repeats itself over time. It might occur once a day, once a week, or once a month. It does not matter. All that matters is that you only trade your clearly defined edge, and leave the randomness behind. For more information, you can read about the edge I use in every market I trade. We also describe how you can develop your own edge, and trade it in any market. Stop Doing, Relax Efforts - If you are losing in the market, chances are you are doing too much. Many beginners, and even experienced traders think they must be trading in order to be a successful trader. This leads to random trading, over trading, and mistakes which compound themselves. You end up digging a hole, and instead of looking for a way out, you look for a different shovel. The harder you try to make a profit, the more you do, the more actions you make, and the more you lose. The market rewards those who are observant, disciplined, and most importantly patient. The market takes from those who try too hard, and do too much. If you dont believe me, try as hard as you can to make money, and see how you do! By relaxing your efforts, you relax your mind. In turn relax your actions and decision making. You do not have to trade every day to be a profitable trader. It sounds paradoxical doesn't it? How can I make money trading if I dont trade? By only trading when it is appropriate like when your edge is present, you better your odds of success. Profitable trading does not come from trading constantly. Profitable trading comes from the act of non-doing, and out of a state of emptiness. Profitable trading is effortless, it comes out of waiting for just the right moment before taking action. And then waiting some more while the market proves you right or wrong. Profitable trading is not forced; it just happens. Active VS Passive Trading - This is very similar to the previous topic. Active trading is a trader who is constantly in the market, trading whatever he see's or feels right. This trader is often wrong, and when he is right he makes the mistake of exiting too early due to fear. This leads to a negative traders equation as he continues to struggle to do the right thing. An Active Trader mentality is one which does not believe in "non-doing." He believes he must, and can, do something. He is afraid of missing out and is often swayed by thoughts and emotions. So he continues trading never looking back, and at the end of the month cannot figure out why his account is in the red. A Passive Trader is the opposite. He passes on more trades than he takes. He does not care about what he misses out on. He only cares about what he takes and the actions he makes in the market. He does not force trades, he just watches the market until he knows what to do. Or he waits and waits until his edge finally sets up. He is passive in his efforts, rather than active. He does not care if he doesn't trade today, this week, or even this month. Trading is not what is important to him; winning is. He knows that profits come from sitting, waiting. Because he is willing to wait, he is peaceful. And profits continue to come into his account, effortlessly. For more information on developing this type of mentality, see below. We also detail how to understand markets through price action, how to create, define, and employ an edge, and how to develop your traders mentality to succeed in markets. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by tradersmentality
4
Trading - Only Strong Trend Markets Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF for investing) There are generally only 2-5 strong trend days a month. The majority of trading days are some form of trading range days, either within a range or a weak channel which reverses and forms a trading range. On strong trend days the market offers what most traders want - a high probability of a large reward, with a tolerable risk. Usually the risk feels greater (and often is) on a strong trend day because there is a sense of urgency, and the bars are often bigger than normal. On trading range days the bars tend to be smaller, offering what appears to be a lower reward, but there are many more failures and reversals. This makes it very difficult to identify a good setup, and even when there is one the market does not make it very far before there is an opposite reversal. This lures unsuspecting traders in, who continue fighting the market taking every trade or only the losers. This type of market is like a boa constrictor. The more you fight, the more you struggle, the tighter its grip and the harder it is to overcome the draw downs and emotional fatigue. Because these types of days are hard to trade and do not offer what I want (a good chance at a large reward), I choose to sit these days out. Instead, I wait for a strong trend day, and then continue to wait some more for a pullback and my edge. Does this mean I miss out on some good moves? Sure. But I do not care. I trade to win, not to trade for fun. It does not matter what I miss, it only matters what I take and the actions I make in the market. So how does a trader know if the day is a trading range day or likely to become a strong trend day and should be traded? In order to help guide you, here are some common characteristics of a trend day. "......" After the above has been identified - it is still better to wait for a pullback and an edge like a "......." This increases the likelihood of a good trade with a strong traders equation. It also helps decrease stress of prices going against the position as it often does when you just enter at the market or without an edge. Of course, waiting is not easy. Just like Tom Petty said "Waiting is the hardest part!" Does this mean you are less likely to lose? Usually, but not always. Even with trend trades fail, although less often. It is absolutely possible to lose money selling in a bear trend or vice versa. The key is to continue onward, and enter the next with trend trade if there is one. If not, or it also fails, prices are more than likely in a trading range and you just haven't yet realized it. If this is the case, it is often better to stop trading and wait for a strong trend day, rather than continuing to fight the market when it is not offering what you expected. **These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and long term investing. "..." = withheld material from original post (members only material). If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
A
by tradersmentality
Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF)Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF) There are generally only 2-5 strong trend days a month. The majority of trading days are some form of trading range days, either within a range or a weak channel which reverses and forms a trading range. On strong trend days the market offers what most traders want - a high probability of a large reward, with a tolerable risk. Usually the risk feels greater (and often is) on a strong trend day because there is a sense of urgency, and the bars are often bigger than normal. On trading range days the bars tend to be smaller, offering what appears to be a lower reward, but there are many more failures and reversals. This makes it very difficult to identify a good setup, and even when there is one the market does not make it very far before there is an opposite reversal. This lures unsuspecting traders in, who continue fighting the market taking every trade or only the losers. This type of market is like a boa constrictor. The more you fight, the more you struggle, the tighter its grip and the harder it is to overcome the draw downs and emotional fatigue. Because these types of days are hard to trade and do not offer what I want (a good chance at a large reward), I choose to sit these days out. Instead, I wait for a strong trend day, and then continue to wait some more for a pullback and my edge. Does this mean I miss out on some good moves? Sure. But I do not care. I trade to win, not to trade for fun. It does not matter what I miss, it only matters what I take and the actions I make in the market. So how does a trader know if the day is a trading range day or likely to become a strong trend day and should be traded? In order to help guide you, here are some common characteristics of a trend day. "......" After the above has been identified - it is still better to wait for a pullback and an edge like a "......." This increases the likelihood of a good trade with a strong traders equation. It also helps decrease stress of prices going against the position as it often does when you just enter at the market or without an edge. Of course, waiting is not easy. Just like Tom Petty said "Waiting is the hardest part!" Does this mean you are less likely to lose? Usually, but not always. Even with trend trades fail, although less often. It is absolutely possible to lose money selling in a bear trend or vice versa. The key is to continue onward, and enter the next with trend trade if there is one. If not, or it also fails, prices are more than likely in a trading range and you just haven't yet realized it. If this is the case, it is often better to stop trading and wait for a strong trend day, rather than continuing to fight the market when it is not offering what you expected. **These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and long term investing. "..." = withheld material from original post (members only material). If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
SP:SPXEducation
by tradersmentality
Day Trading Trend or Trading Range? Can be applied to investingIn the previous article we discussed only trading on strong trend days or strong markets. We also identified what increases the likelihood of a day (or market) becoming a strong trend. As said before, there are only a handful of strong days a month (or only a few strong markets at any given time). Because of this, it is just as important to identify and understand when a market is likely not a trend and more likely a trading range. Within the first hour or two of the open (when day trading), it is often obvious if the day will likely become a trend day or a trading range. Once the market has been identified as likely a trading range, it is unlikely to become a trend day as the market tends to continue what it has been doing. In this case it is more likely to continue to have heavy two sided trading and less likely to convert into a strong and healthy trend. But wait - most channels are some form of trading range right? Yes. This is a form of slanted trading range, or a trending trading range. This is where the market is technically in a trend but it is very weak and likely to reverse at any time. In fact, by the close it will likely reverse and the trend is unlikely to remain intact. Characteristics of a Trading Range Day "............" So if most days are not trend days and are instead some sort of trading range, cant a day trader use this information to his advantage? Of course, if it aligns with your trading style or method. But you must understand that you are not likely to win on many trades, or win a large reward. Instead most trades even strong ones, only go for 1X the risk. On top of that there are many trades to take, most of which fail. This makes it difficult to remain focused and continue trading without emotions and without missing the trades you need to win to recover losses. What about only taking strong trades ".......?" That is a reasonable thing to do, but the probability is still often lower and the reward is as well. And on these days most stop order entries fail, resulting in repeated failures. This is a "............." If not, you will likely get stopped out just before prices go your direction! Or the market will only go in your favor temporarily before stopping you out. This makes trading difficult for beginners and even for those with experience. However most do not realize they should simply remove themselves from the market during these times. Instead they continue to trade as they think they should, and continue to grow losses, making it harder to recover even on a good trading day. "I do not like to trade when the market is likely to reverse at any time. I only like to trade when the market is not likely to reverse at all." - Josh Ridenour **These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and even long term investing. "..." = withheld material from original post (members only material). If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
Education
by tradersmentality