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USOIL: Key Levels and Bullish Prospects Amid Trade War ConcernsGood morning Traders, Trust you are doing great. Kindly go through my analysis of USOIL. USOIL is currently experiencing market imbalance due to the nature of its opening range, following a gap-down decline last night in response to trade war concerns that have fueled recession fears. The price dropped from its weekly high of 72.22 to a key support zone at 69.00, which is near the week's low. As we anticipate the release of the ISM Services PMI at 3 PM GMT+1, I expect the demand zone to hold, driving the price higher—initially to fill the gap and subsequently toward the 71.35 region. Furthermore, this outlook is strengthened by the formation of a bullish Bat pattern on the M30 chart. The key levels I will be monitoring for potential price action include the previous week's high at 70.10, the five-week high at 70.62, and the 71.35 region. These areas represent significant resistance levels that could be tested as price moves upward. A break below 68.80 will invalidate this outlook. Cheers and Happy trading.
TVC:USOILLong
by Samuel124
The Trade War Strikes Back: Market Reeling from Trump’s Tariff MThe markets are not taking Trump’s new round of tariffs lightly. As the S&P 500 dips sharply, investors are reacting to the growing tension between the U.S. and China over trade policy. The new tariffs have ignited fears of a prolonged trade war, sending shockwaves through tech-heavy sectors and dragging major names like NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AAPL , and NASDAQ:AMZN deep into the red. 📉 What we're seeing: SP500 is breaking recent support with heavy volume. Tech sector is leading the sell-off, especially chipmakers and global exporters. Uncertainty is pushing investors toward safety, further increasing volatility. 🧠 Key takeaway: This is more than a dip—it’s policy risk priced in real time. Until there's clarity, traders should prepare for more erratic moves. Short-term sentiment has clearly flipped bearish. 💬 Are you buying the fear or staying out of the storm?
VANTAGE:SP500FT
by SmartSignalss
UK inflation cools more than expected, GBP/USD loses groundUK inflation for February rose 2.8% y/y, below the market esti mate of 2.9%. This was lower than the 3% gain in January. The main contribution to the drop in inflation was lower prices for clothing and housing. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.4%, up from 0.1% in January but lower than the market estimate of 0.5%. Core CPI also eased, falling from 3.7% to 3.5%. The drop in inflation is good news, but the Bank of England remains concerned about the upside risk of inflation. Services inflation, which has been sticky, was unchanged at 5%. The BoE will consider a rate cut at the next meeting in May, but will be monitoring the effects of increased employer taxes starting in April as well as today's Spring Statement. At last week's meeting, the BoE expressed concern over worsening "global trade policy uncertainty" and pointedly mentioned US tariffs. The Trump administration's new trade policy has raised trade tensions and a global trade war would hurt growth and boost inflation. The slight drop in inflation is also good news for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who is delivered the budget update earlier today. The update did not contain any further tax increases and announced deep spending cuts. Borrrowing a phrase from the Bank of England at last week's meeting, Reeves said "increased global uncertainty" had increased borrowing costs and led to economic instability. GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.2940. The next support level is 1.2864 There is resistance at 1.2940 and 1.2991
by OANDA
Recap: Weekly Trade Plan March 10th, 2025CME_MINI:ES1! In this TradingView blog, we will recap our trade plan posted on March 10th, 2025. Please note that this is a recap, and since then, we have also published our updated price map and weekly plan for the current week. Today is also the Federal Reserve's decision day. Here is our updated price map from the weekly plan published on March 10th, 2025: Our updated price map for ES Futures Key Levels: • Important Level to reclaim if no correction: 5795.25 - 5800 • Key LVN: 5738 - 5696 • Mid 2024 range: 5574.50 • Key Support: 5567.25 - 5528.75 • 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5449.25 • 2022 CVAH: 5280.25 It is important to note that when we provide our thoughts and reasoning for the levels we map in our recap, we have the benefit of hindsight. Likewise, when we publish our weekly trading plan and share our thoughts at the start of the week, we are anticipating potential market movements on the hard right edge. This is where randomness and uncertainty are key points. If we were to rank our process chronologically, this is how we note the importance of each component that makes up our plan. 1. Big Picture 2. Key Levels/Price Map 3. Scenarios Our big picture is based on how we view the global macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Key levels are mapped utilizing our methodology considering market auction theory and volume profiling. Note how our key level, 'Mid-range 2024', on higher time frame provided support. At times you may see two scenarios, at other times three. Scenarios are just an anticipation which a trader should adjust should any new information come to light. Although you may note that our scenarios play out mostly from reviewing our blogs. Our aim is to help you create a process for yourself. Note how we anticipated near-mirroring price action for the week, though our reasoning was influenced by higher inflation data. However, the inflation reading came in lower than expected. Fast forward to today, all eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, SEP, and the FOMC press conference scheduled for later today.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Gold Forecast: Key Levels Above $3,000Gold remains persistent in targeting its inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe, eyeing the 3,040-resistance. However, monthly overbought conditions—seen in 2024, 2020, and 2011—raise caution for potential sharp reversals. • In 2011, an overbought RSI led to a nearly 900-point retracement • In 2020, a similar overbought condition resulted in a nearly 450-point decline • In November 2024, another overbought reading triggered a nearly 250-point drop • Now, gold has once again reached these overbought levels, raising caution for a potential momentum recharge. Key Events: 🔹Israel-Gaza tensions escalate as the 2-month ceasefire ends 🔹Trump and Putin negotiate a ceasefire with #Ukraine 🔹The US Dollar weakens amid trade war risks, with focus on Wednesday’s FOMC for the long-term outlook Key Levels: 🔺Above 3,040: The trend could extend to 3,080 🔻Below 3,040: A reversal may test 3,000, 2,955, 2,930, and 2,900 - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
Dow Holds Steady Above 41,000Unlike the Nasdaq and SP500, Dow did not trace the full potential of its double top formation between 2024 and 2025 peaks, yet in a similar manner to the US indices, it rebounded from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the May 2024-Jan 2025 uptrend, coinciding with oversold levels on the 3-Day RSI previously seen in October 2023. The Dow’s rebound from the 40,660 low aligns with the bottom end of the duplicated channel of its respected up-trend between May 2024 and Jan 2025, strengthening positive rebound opportunities in tandem with the broader market sentiment. Should the Dow hold above the 41,000-mark, levels 41,700, 42,600, and 43,400 may come back to play. From the downside, a clean close back below the 40,600-mark can extend losses in the direction of the double top formation’s target, aligning with possible support levels at 40,200, 39,500, and 38,700. Key Events to Watch: - Trade war Developments - FOMC Meeting on Wednesday Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:US30
by FOREXcom
Nasdaq Hits Double Top Target – What's Next?Amid declining economic confidence and economic growth forecasts, stimulated by expanding trade wars, the Nasdaq has reached the double top pattern target formed between the December 2024 and February 2025 peaks at 19,100. This level also aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend from the August 2024 low (17,230) to the February 2025 high (22,245). The 19,000 barrier holds significant technical weight, as it coincides with: The golden Fibonacci ratio and the double top pattern target. Oversold conditions on the daily RSI, previously seen in August 2024 and dating back to similar levels in 2022 on the 3-day time frame. Key Levels to Watch: 🔻 Downside Risk: If market turbulence intensifies and the Nasdaq drops below 19,000, the next key level is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at 18,300, with potential interim support at 18,700. 🔺 Upside Potential: If markets respond to oversold momentum conditions, a break above the short-term resistance at 19,700 could trigger rallies toward 20,000, 20,300, 20,700, and 21,000. A strong hold above 21,000 could extend bullish momentum back toward record highs. Key Events to Watch: US PPI Data (Today) US-Canada Trade War Developments US Consumer Sentiment Report (Friday) - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by FOREXcom
EURUSD: Trump’s trade war crosses the Atlantic You may be sick of hearing about tariffs, but they are currently the catalyst for a huge amount of volatility in the market and a huge amount of trading opportunities. And now Trump’s trade war has crossed the Atlantic Today, the European Union announced retaliatory tariffs on approximately €26 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to President Donald Trump's recent increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Targeted products include Harley-Davidsons, bourbon, and jeans—key American exports that have been caught in previous trade disputes. The EU has said it remains open to negotiation but has not ruled out further action. In response, Trump vowed to retaliate, stating, “Of course I’m going to respond.” The daily chart for the EUR/USD shows the pair could fall into a larger corrective decline, given overbought RSI conditions.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBPUSD Holds Below 0.618 Fibonacci RetracementFollowing the DXY's decline, the British pound surged back above the trendline connecting lower highs between 2014 to 2021, aligning with a key resistance at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend between the September 2024 high (1.3434) and the January 2025 low (1.2099) at 1.2945. Current Market Setup: RSI on the 3-day time frame is now overbought, aligning with the inverted head and shoulders target formed by the RSI trend near oversold levels, reinforcing reversal potential. Further downside risks persist, with market sentiment hinging on growth data, trade war developments, and US inflation figures. Key Levels to Watch: A decisive close above 1.2850 could pave the way toward 1.3020, 1.3160, and 1.34. Failure to hold gains could trigger a pullback toward key support zones at 1.28, 1.27, and 1.2570. Key Events This Week: US CPI UK GDP Trade War Developments - Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
Crude Oil: Is There More Downside?Following crude oil’s rebound from its September 2024 low of $65.20, the risk of a reversal remains uncertain amid ongoing bearish pressures. Key Events This Week: Chinese deflation risks OPEC monthly report US CPI data Trade war developments Potential Scenarios: 🔻 Bearish Scenario: A clean break below $65 could extend losses toward $63.80, a key level that may determine whether the market holds neutral and rebounds or breaks further into a steeper bearish trend towards $62, $60, and $55 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 uptrend). 🔺 Bullish Scenario: If the rebound sustains above $67, resistance levels at $68.70, $70.80, and $72.50 could come back into play. - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
DOLLAR GAINS BUYER AMID NFP BAD DATA??Dollar seems on hold in it's 2.618 fibonacci support after NFP data released. Will it go higher next week? I see dollar still waiting next data release. I mention JOLTS Job Opening & CPI which both of them crucial in current context of US macro-economy. Strong job opening & CPI means investor and retail trader must be no worries about US macro-economic despite concern about trade war. Otherwise, weak job opening & CPI means labor market and inflation continue cooling down. It will push THE FED to give clear path about their plan for future Interest Rate. So, dollar could make sideways movement (or even gain buyer) but overall still in bearish momentum. Dollar still driven by concern of trade war and if job opening comes weaker than expected, it could gives more power to seller.
TVC:DXYShort
by vicariuzchrist
Canadian dollar higher as US suspends auto tariffsThe Canadian dollar is steady on Thursday after gaining around 1% over the past two days.  In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4351, up 0.07% on the day.  We could see some volatility from the Canadian dollar over the next two days, with the release of the Ivey PMI today and the employment report on Friday. The Trump tariff saga took a twist on Wednesday, as the US announced it would exempt automakers in Canada and Mexico from 25% tariffs for 30 days provided they complied with existing free trade rules.  Trump made clear that the trade war between the US and its two neighbors was not over. Trump has been shooting from the hip, imposing, suspending, and re-imposing tariffs against Canada. Is this merely a heavy-handed negotiation tactic?  If so, chances are good that a deal can be reached and a damaging trade war can  be averted.  Canada can ill afford a trade war with the US, as some 75% of Canadian exports head to its southern neighbor.  A trade war would tip the weak Canadian economy into a recession. The Bank of Canada is nervously watching as trade tensions escalate between Ottawa and Washington.  The BoC has said that a trade war with the US would inflict "permanent" damage on Canada's economy and boost inflation.  The BoC is in the midst of an easing cycle and a trade war would complicate plans to futher lower rates. Canada's Ivey PMI fell sharply in January to 47.1 from 54.7, its first contraction in five months. The PMI is expected to rebound in February, with a market estimate of 50.6, which would point to stagnation.  On Friday, Canada and the US release employment reports. 143.75 and 144.19 are the next resistance lines There is support at 143.00 and 142.56
by OANDA
USD/MXN: The Mexican Peso Weakens as New Tariffs Take EffectOver the last three trading sessions, the pair has risen by more than 2% in favor of the U.S. dollar as the threat of tariffs has become a reality. So far, President Trump has confirmed that the measures will take effect today, and there is currently no hope for another deadline extension. The President of Mexico has traveled to the United States for an official meeting, but at this time, there are no expectations that the measure will be lifted in the short term. Given this, investors have determined that the U.S. dollar is likely the strongest currency to consider, especially if there is a potential economic slowdown in Mexico’s activity in the coming months. Consistent Sideways Range For now, USD/MXN remains in a sideways range, defined by a ceiling at 20.91 pesos per dollar and a floor at 20.07 pesos per dollar. The recent bullish momentum has once again tested resistance, and if upward pressure on the U.S. dollar remains strong, it is possible that the sideways channel could give way to an uptrend, which has remained dormant. It is important to note that the latest candlestick in the formation shows strong neutrality, highlighting the barrier imposed by the current resistance level. ADX Indicator At the moment, the ADX line has started an upward trend and is now above the neutral level of 20 on the indicator. This suggests that the average of bullish movements in recent trading sessions is becoming trend-defining. However, it is crucial that the ADX line continues to move away from the neutral level to confirm that buying pressure is strengthening in the short term. Key Levels: 20.91: Major resistance, marking the upper boundary of the broad sideways range and acting as the most critical barrier for the latest bullish move. Breaks above this level could lead to new highs, ending the current consolidation phase. 20.43: Important support, aligning with the Ichimoku cloud barrier as well as the 50 and 100-period moving averages, highlighting the strength of this level. If the price falls below this point, the sideways range could extend further in the coming sessions. 20.07: Final support, positioned at the lowest price levels recorded in December 2024. If the price nears this zone, it could reinforce the bearish outlook, completely invalidating the long-term bullish trend. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
GOLD (XAU/USD)—$2,975 HIGH SPARKS BUZZGOLD (XAU/USD)—$2,975 HIGH SPARKS BUZZ (1/9) Good afternoon, TradingView! Gold (XAU/USD) hit $ 2,975 in Feb ‘25, up 5-7% YTD 🌍 2024’s 26-27% gain shines—here’s the breakdown. (2/9) – PRICE RISE • 2024 Gain: 26-27%, best since 2010 📈 • 2025 YTD: 2,955-2,975, 5-7% up 💡 • Feb 24: +0.52% to new high 🌞 Gold’s climb, safe-haven rules. (3/9) – MARKET MOVES • Trade Fear: Tariffs spark inflows 🌟 • FASB: Coinbase tie lifts mood 🚗 • Dip: $ 2,940 Feb 25, profit takes 📊 Gold’s humming, tension fuels it. (4/9) – SECTOR SNAP • Price: 2,940-2,875, $ 20T+ cap 🌍 • Vs Silver: Outpaces XAG’s wobble 💪 • Forecasts: UBS $ 3,200—value gap? 📉 Gold’s steady, peers falter. (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS • Fed: High rates cap upside ⚠️ • USD: Tariff boost stings 🔒 • Profit Takes: -1.27% Feb 25 🐻 Gold’s firm, but headwinds nip. (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Gain: 26-27% ‘24—tough haul 💪 • Demand: Banks, ETFs pile in 🏋️ • Hedge: 4.3% inflation shield 🌱 Gold’s gritty, crisis-proof. (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: No yield, USD bite 🙈 • Opportunities: Tariffs, $ 3,200 zing 🌏 Can gold vault past the snags? (8/9) – Gold’s $ 2,975 peak, your view? 1️⃣ Bullish, $ 3,200+ soon 😎 2️⃣ Neutral, Holds, risks linger 🤷 3️⃣ Bearish, $ 2,800 dip looms 😕 Vote below! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY Gold’s $ 2,975 Feb high and 26% ‘24 stack up, safe-haven star Trade fears lift, risks loom, gem or pause?
TVC:GOLDLong
by DCAChampion
Bitcoin Slips: Buy the Lows or Ride the Sell-Off? Following an extended expanding consolidation from Dec 2024 – Jan 2025, bearish pressure intensified after a downside breakout, increasing the probability of a double-top formation at 108,360 – 109,350. This raises concerns about a potential drop towards the previous major support-turned-resistance zone at 72,000 – 74,000. 🔹 Momentum Check: The RSI has hit oversold levels last seen in Aug 2024, when BTCUSD found a bottom before rallying past 100K. 🔸 Bullish Scenario: If BTCUSD holds above 82,000, upside targets include 86,500, 93,000, and potentially a retest of 109,000. 🔻 Bearish Scenario: A close below 82,000 could accelerate declines toward 79,500 & 72,000, aligning with the 50% & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Aug 2024 – Jan 2025 uptrend. - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:BTCUSD
by FOREXcom
Gold NEW ATH to $2,954?! (1H UPDATE)Gold on the 4H TF is within its final Wave 5 bullish move, there’s no arguing with that. The only thing to debate is how high can Wave 5 push up before reversing? While it’s possible that Wave 5 has now peaked at $2,942 & ready for a major correction, on the 1H TF I see a small possibly of it creating a new ATH toward $2,954. HIGH RISK TRADE. Confluences👇🏻 ⭕️Distribution Schematic Taking Place Between Wave 3 High, Wave 4 Low & Wave 5 High. ⭕️Wave E Rejected From Psychological Number Of $2,940 (LQ Trap). ⭕️No Strong Sell Off Yet To Indicate A Reversal Has Started.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
Evaluating the Future of Midcaps: How Much Pain Is Left....?Midcap Correction: How Much More Pain is Left..? The midcap sector has experienced a significant correction, currently down approximately 18% amid the broader market downturn. This raises an important question: how much more pain is left for midcaps? Historical Context and Market Correction : If we look at past trends, this 18% to 20% correction is not unprecedented. A similar downturn occurred in 2022, when the midcap index was corrected by around 23.3%. Therefore, it’s important to remember that such market fluctuations are a normal part of the cycle and not something entirely new. Primary Causes of the Correction : Two key factors have contributed to the current market correction. Firstly, the high valuations of midcap stocks coupled with slower-than-expected earnings growth over the past two quarters have created pressure on prices. While there are other contributing factors, these two stand out as the primary drivers behind the recent downturn. However, this correction may not persist for long. Looking ahead, earnings are expected to pick up in the coming quarters, fueled by an anticipated boost in consumption due to the new income tax bill presented in the latest budget. As a result, a combination of market correction and improving earnings growth could lay the foundation for a potential recovery and a return of the bull run. Technical Support Levels and Future Outlook : From a technical analysis standpoint, the midcap index is currently hovering around the 49,650 mark, which is a significant support level. Additionally, this price point coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, reinforcing its importance as a key technical support area. The broader Fibonacci golden zone, which spans from 50,180 to 46,800, also suggests that this range will provide strong support for the midcap index in the near term. Given these technical factors, it’s reasonable to anticipate that the downside could be limited to around 5% more from the current level of 49,650. Beyond this range, the market may stabilize, and with expected earnings growth, we could witness a market rebound in the upcoming quarters. Risks to Consider : While the outlook for midcaps appears optimistic, investors should remain cautious. One major risk is the ongoing trade war, which continues to create significant uncertainty in global markets. Any escalation in trade tensions could weigh on the broader market, including midcaps, and introduce additional volatility. Conclusion : In summary, while the midcap index has experienced an 18% correction, this level of decline is not unprecedented, and there is potential for recovery. With strong earnings growth expected in the coming quarters and key technical support levels in place, the midcap sector could see a return to positive momentum. However, caution is advised, especially considering the uncertainties surrounding the trade war. Investors should keep an eye on these developments to navigate the market with caution and opportunity in mind.
NSE:CNXMIDCAPLong
by Kartik_Elkunchwar
China - U.S. Tariff Trade War!🩸China has slapped the U.S. with 10% tariffs on Energy products & automobiles as a retaliation🩸 China’s tariffs on U.S. energy & cars will hurt American exporters by reducing demand & pushing down prices, affecting profitability. Energy producers may struggle with oversupply, while automakers like Tesla and Ford face declining sales in China. The move escalates U.S.-China trade tensions, discouraging investment and increasing market volatility. While lower energy prices could help inflation, job losses in key industries may offset any benefits. U.S. policymakers might respond with countermeasures. If tensions rise further, a broader trade conflict could emerge, increasing risks for the global economy.
TVC:DXY
by BA_Investments
$FESX1! EURO STOXX 50: 7 WEEKS OF GAINSEUREX:FESX1! EURO STOXX 50: 7 WEEKS OF GAINS 1/7 The EURO STOXX 50 is on track for its seventh consecutive weekly gain! 📈⚡️ This winning streak continues despite global trade war jitters and shifting market sentiment. 2/7 Why the optimism? 🤔 Investors appear cautiously confident about U.S. trade policy developments, with Europe seen as a more stable option amidst American economic uncertainties. 3/7 Key influences to watch: • U.S. Jobs Data: Friday’s payroll numbers may affect overall risk sentiment. • Trade War: Trump’s tariff talk + a one-month reprieve for Mexico & Canada = a temporary sigh of relief? 4/7 Currency factors also play a role. 💱 The Yen’s strength due to expected BoJ rate hikes could affect export-related optimism if the Euro shifts in tandem. 5/7 Commodities? Gold remains steady near record peaks, signaling some investors are still seeking safe havens—even as equities rally. 6/7 What’s driving the EURO STOXX 50’s resilience? 1️⃣ Diversified European economy 2️⃣ Stable/dovish monetary policy 3️⃣ Shift to Europe as a “safer” bet 4️⃣ Combination of factors Vote below! 👇✅ 7/7 Market watchers see Europe’s diverse economic base 🏭🛍️ shielding stocks from U.S. volatility. Plus, the possibility of more accommodative European monetary policy adds extra support.
EUREX:FESX1!Long
by DCAChampion
1
China's kicked off Year of the Snake: Trade War Meets AI Rally China's Markets in 2025: Trade War Meets AI Rally 🐍📊 1/9 Chinese stocks kicked off the Year of the Snake with mixed signals. Trade tensions with the U.S. are rattling markets, while AI-sector hype led by DeepSeek is lifting tech stocks. 🛑⚡ Will AI innovation outshine trade fears? 2/9 After a holiday break, mainland Chinese markets opened under pressure. The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE $000888) struggled to gain momentum, reflecting concerns over new U.S. tariffs. 📉 Trade wars continue to haunt global markets. 3/9 Meanwhile, Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks rallied strongly despite tariff risks. Investors remain optimistic about cross-border business resilience and opportunities in tech. 🏢📈 4/9 Currency Stability: The firm fixing of the yuan signals that Beijing is stepping in to manage volatility. Stability in currency markets is crucial for maintaining investor confidence. 💴 Will this intervention calm the storm? 5/9 Trade tensions escalated with new tariffs from the Trump administration. While the measures were less severe than feared, the negative sentiment still weighed on broader market performance. ⚖️ What’s next for U.S.-China trade talks? 6/9 On the upside, the AI sector surged. Buzz around DeepSeek—a rising Chinese AI player—sparked gains in tech giants like Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) and Baidu ( NASDAQ:BIDU ). 🚀 AI is becoming a crucial driver of China’s economic narrative. 7/9 Technical Watch: Shanghai Composite Index (SSE $000888): A bellwether for China's economic sentiment. CSI300 ($000300): Captures performance across top Chinese blue chips, reflecting key market trends. 8/9 Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and Baidu are riding the AI momentum, but the backdrop of geopolitical and regulatory risks could temper gains. 📊 Can AI innovations outweigh trade turbulence in 2025? 9/9 What’s your outlook on China’s markets this year? Vote now! 🗳️ Bullish: AI-led rally continues 🐂 Neutral: Trade volatility offsets gains ⚖️ Bearish: Trade war worsens 🐻
SSE:000888Long
by DCAChampion
1
TAO DAILY For me there are two possible entries for TAO caused by the trade war situation in the US, so this is my take on the chart: - Wicks get filled as a rule of thumb, so this capitulation wick that has reset all the progress made in Q4 2024. My preferred entry would be a sweep and reclaim of the wick as this coincides with range low and a bullish orderblock, an area of extreme support on the high timeframe. - Another entry would be the breakout of the diagonal downtrend resistance, if this could coincide with the reclaim of the 0.25 line in the range that would add further confluence and a better R:R IMO. For both entries the Midpoint would be a key S/R level and would be very high resistance.
by ProR35
DXY Analysis & ConsiderationsOverall Trend & Context: Long-Term Uptrend: The DXY exhibits a clear uptrend from late 2023, indicating persistent USD strength. Key Levels: Resistance Zone (109.50 - 110.00): This zone has proven a challenge for the DXY to break decisively. A sustained break above this level is crucial for further upside. Support Zone (107.00 - 108.00): This zone has provided support during pullbacks. EMAs (25, 50, 100, 200 - 4-Hour Chart): The DXY is trading above all EMAs, a bullish sign. The 25 EMA is acting as dynamic support, and a bullish crossover (25 above 50) has occurred. Potential Scenarios & Probabilities: Bullish Breakout (High Probability) : The bullish EMA alignment favor an upside breakout above 110.00. Increased volume would confirm this scenario. Pullback to Support/EMAs (Medium Probability) : A pullback towards the support line or the 25 EMA (around 108.80 - 109.00) is plausible, especially given the overbought RSI. This could offer a good long entry opportunity. Breakdown Below Support (Low - Medium Probability) : A break below the support line and the EMAs would weaken the bullish outlook and could lead to a deeper correction. Trading Considerations: xxxUSD pairs - If the dollar goes up we should look for short positions. USDxxx pairs - If Dollar goes up we can look for long positions. A pullback to the support zones or the 25 EMA could offer a lower-risk long entry, provided these levels hold and there is sufficient demand on the USDxxx pair you're trading. (technicals should always be prioritized) Consider placing stop-loss orders below key support/demand levels to manage risk. Look for increased volume during breakouts or bounces off support to strengthen signals. Watch for bearish divergence on the RSI as a potential bearish warning sign on the DXY. Geopolitical Factors: De-dollarization Efforts: Some countries are exploring alternatives to the US dollar for trade and reserves. While this is a long-term trend, any significant announcements or actions could impact the dollar's value.   Sanctions and Trade Policies: US sanctions and trade policies can influence the dollar's strength, particularly against the currencies of targeted countries. The US imposed tariffs are creating ripples right now. Let's quickly look at what 'tariffs' are - By now you should all know about the US imposed tariffs on several major trading partners including China, Canada and Mexico (and that they've retaliated with their own tariffs on US goods). What does this all mean? In the US any goods that are imported from Canada for example, will now cost more to the general public. To put it simply, the US is now charging a "handlers fee" and that will increase the overall price. These tariffs are intended to encourage these countries to change their trade practices. The tariffs have disrupted global supply chains, increased costs for businesses, and created uncertainty. Make no mistake, this is without a doubt, a trade war. Potential Impacts on the US Dollar: Positive Impact: Safe-haven demand: Increased global economic uncertainty due to the trade war could drive investors towards the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and its value. People will flock to the take no s#it protocols implemented by the Trump administration. Reduced imports: If tariffs lead to a significant decrease in US imports, there could be less demand for foreign currencies to purchase those imports, indirectly increasing demand for USD. This means that trade conducted by the US will increase the overall Dollar output - thus making it seem more valuable. (If we assume the Trump administration is playing petty games, we're badly misinformed, we should assume that these are well calculated risks) Negative Impact: Reduced US exports: Tariffs can make US goods less competitive, leading to a decrease in exports. This can reduce foreign demand for USD, as fewer foreign buyers need dollars to purchase US goods. Economic slowdown: The trade war could negatively impact economic growth in the US and globally. A slowdown in the US economy could make the dollar less attractive to investors. Retaliatory tariffs: If other countries retaliate with their own tariffs on US goods, it can further dampen US exports and reduce demand for the dollar. Trade Wars and Uncertainty: The uncertainty and potential for escalation associated with trade wars can negatively impact investor confidence and lead to a flight to safety. While the USD is often seen as a safe haven, extreme uncertainty could lead investors to seek other safe-haven assets or reduce their overall exposure to USD (Right now Gold is something you should be looking into as a trader and investor). Final Notes: The technical picture is strong and does favour a breakout. But the geopolitical risks reduce the probability. Be prepared for fundamentals to override technicals in the short term. Given the heightened risks, traders should be cautious and wait for clear confirmation signals before taking positions. Closely follow news related to the debt ceiling, economic data, and geopolitical events. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:DXYLong
by Apexfx_Alpha