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USDJPY Weekly TF DEATH CROSS Confirmed! JPY Appreciation LikelyWhat is a Death Cross? The death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major selloff. The death cross appears on a chart when a stock/Currency's short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average. Typically, the most common moving averages used in this pattern are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The death cross indicator has proven to be a reliable predictor of some of the most severe bear markets of the past century: 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008. Investors who got out of the stock market at the start of these bear markets avoided large losses that were as high as 90% in the 1930s. Because a death cross is a long-term indicator, as opposed to many short-term chart patterns such as the doji, it carries more weight for investors concerned about locking in gains before a new bear market gets underway. An increase in volume typically accompanies the appearance of the death cross. Source: www.investopedia.com Now as the definition of this rare EMA crossover has been defined as above, we can technically expect JPY appreciation in the near future, which might be sustained due to many fundamental factors. If this holds right, we could not only see USDJPY Plummet over the coming years but also many JPY related currencies particularly the EURJPY, AUDJPY & NZDJPY. The above snapshot is from USDJPY weekly TF which shows the occurrence of death cross signal, followed by continued decline of the USDJPY and recovery (golden cross). During the whole turmoil and the very start of the financial crisis back then, the death cross gave a strong signal of impending recession! The golden cross in 2013 was the sign of period of recovery in the markets as risk appetite returned and GOLD fell from multi year tops. A week ago the death cross has happened again. In the main chart as it could be seen, the EMA used are 50 and 200. A crossover has already been confirmed at this point, but ask yourself this; could this be a beginning of a long term downtrend? The answer to this question lies in the fundamental factors that are currently dictating the markets. The major factor here which is held accountable is the TRADE WAR!. For past one year this battle between the world's two largest economy has been going on with no end in sight, Furthermore things just seems to get worse as TRUMP is hell bent on reducing china imports into the U.S. The trade war has lead to the following things which has completely reshaped the financial markets: 1) U.S yield curve inversion has sparked the fear of recession forcing many to retreat to safehavens 2) Global slowdown resulting from the trade war, has forced many central banks to start an easing cycle of cutting interests rates 3) TRUMP is forcing The FED to cut interest rates aggressively in order to make USD weak and boost the economy FED has now completely changed their course to easing with predictions coming for a 120BP cuts by the of 2020. Should the FED cut rates to support the economy from a possible recession we could see the USDJPY plummet whereas should they keep defying TRUMP and hold the rates steady or cut less, we could see this pair being stubborn to drop. All in all its looking more likely that the FED would keep easing slowly which would see JPY appreciate. In other perspective, A global slowdown would hit NZD, AUD & EUR to such an extent that the JPY would gain stronger ground against all these three pairs compared to any other currency. This is just my outlook on the JPY futures based on current and past fundamentals and as of now all things are pointing towards JPY appreciation. A trade entry could only be made based on technical picture in correlation with the fundamental one. Currently the price is held within a long term triangle, once breached we could make an entry and aim for 101.00. Shall there be any updates i will provide them in a new thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
1
FED Rate Cut Outlook & TradeWar May Take SAFEHAVEN YEN TO 105.00INSTANT ENTRY AT AROUND: 107.350 LEVEL POSITION TYPE: SHORT STOP LOSS: 109.500 TAKE PROFIT: 105.00 RR: 1:1 SHALL THERE BE ANY UPDATES I WILL PROVIDE THEM IN THE THREAD BELOW. BENEATH YOU CAN FIND THE ANALYSIS BEHIND THIS TRADE SETUP As seen from the main chart, the weekly TF shows the price respected by a long term held triangle (black lines). The blue line represents another concrete trendline which was broken as the weekly candle closed comfortably outside the trendline. As of now the next support that lies is present at 105.00 level where the main triangle's lower trendline is present. So we can expect the price to make its way to that level in the coming weeks. On the fundamental perspective, the prospect of US interest rate cut has already sent the greenback tumbling against all major currencies. USDJPY is the most sensitive pairs of them all. Inevitably the FED would cut the interest this year and it might be two times potentially! although this event has not been priced in at 100% in the markets, the coming weeks may seem to reveal further USD weakness as the prospect of eventual rate cut gets priced in! Additionally, the trade war is not helping the greenback either against the yen, as any negative news or developments seems to favor traders rushing for safehaven yen. As said the coming weeks are crucial and will show clear picture as to where the price headed but at the moment the technical and fundamental picture are both in our favor.
Short
by FX618Analysis
Elliot Wave: EURUSD Is Ready For a Massive Bullish ReversalThe bears have been in control of EURUSD during most of 2018 and still maintaining the authority in 2019, as well. The EURUSD declined from its February 2018 high of 1.25534 to as low as 1.10310 in July 2019. The bears can be proud of the total gain of over 1500 pips they managed to achieve. Unfortunately, “no trend lasts forever.” After such an intense sell-off contentment can start to settle in. This can often be dangerous, especially since the evidence shows that a significant bullish reversal is around the corner. The weekly chart visualizes the entire behavior of the EURUSD’s since the low of 1.03428 in January 2017 into Elliott Wave context. The first significant reason not to join the bears right now is the completed bullish 5-3 wave cycle. The advance to 1.25569 can be seen as a five-wave impulse labeled 1-2-3-4-5. The sub-waves of wave 3 is also visible, and it’s also the most extended wave among the 1, 3, and 5. EURUSD Bears Are So Vulnerable Now The theory states that every impulse is followed by a correction of three waves in the opposite direction. Here, EURUSD seems to have drawn a textbook A-B-C zigzag correction with an ending diagonal in wave C. Once the corrective phase of the cycle is over, the larger trend resumes in the direction of the impulsive sequence. The second reason not to trust the bears is the fact that wave C is already retested the 61.8% Fibonacci level, where second waves often terminate. Besides, wave C also equal 0.618 of wave A, one of the characteristics of zigzag pattern And the third, but important evidence supporting the bullish thesis is that prices are rejecting the lower trend line and forming bullish price action signals. In conclusion, there is plenty of indication that the bears have been overstaying their welcome for a while now. If this analysis is correct, a notable bullish reversal can soon be expected in EURUSD. Given that wave (3/C)’s initial targets lie above the top of the wave (1/A), we think sellers should exercise extreme caution. What is your view on EURUSD? Let me know in the comment.
Long
by Veejahbee
2
Is Southwest Airlines a Hidden Gem?This is my first TradingView video, hope you guys enjoy! Be sure to leave a like, follow, and comment! Southwest Airlines is a potential gem in this market as trade wars with China escalate. As Boeing ramps up production of their Max jets, Southwest also ramps up their flights as they are a primary user of the Boeing Max jets. Southwest did beat their earnings, however fell a little short on revenue, but if this is any indication towards Q3 earnings, I would feel bullish as these Boeing jets become more available. Southwest is also increasing their Hawaiian travel routes so this is great fundamental news for the airline! The Megalodon indicator uses a machine learning algorithm, combined with data from over 500 buy setups, and over 2000 indicators to produce extremely accurate buy signals on any and all asset classes! You will also receive real time buy and sell signals for the stock market, cryptocurrency, as well as forex markets! We also completed our cryptocurrency automated trade bot. It trades for you, using our backtested indicator with phenomenal results! Click the link in my bio and try out the megalodon indicators today!
NYSE:LUV
by RandallGurule
Go Short as NZDUSD Pullback Reaches Supply Zone - Good risk-off opportunity as NZDUSD pullback after larger-than-expected rate cut by RBNZ - Kiwi to be pressured by trade war - In contrast to the RBNZ, the Fed was not as dovish as expected This week we saw the RBNZ delivering a 0.5% rate cut, 0.25% more than what the market had estimated, and said that rates might go into negative territory. The kiwi plunged across the board but still managed to rebound slightly despite such surprise. But with such a shock and dovish message, I think it is hard for this pullback to sustain. Furthermore, trade tensions are apparently worsening since last week. This will add more downside pressure to risk-on currencies (AUD & NZD). On the other hand, the Fed delivered a mixed message last week which was not as dovish as anticipated. Until further news is released regarding the Fed's stance on rates, NZDUSD should continue its march downwards to around 0.6380-90.
Short
by PipHike
FED vs. POTUS... who will push the dollar more? Find out on the next episode of Dragon Ball DXY... Or we could just guess with what we know now like any analyst. Expecting fed meeting minutes to state what the fed members are stating already, they believe the economy is still resilient and does not need too much expansionary policy, cuts above standard aren't necessary, etc. These statements will reassure many regional institutional investors who put faith in the FED and are confident in their outlook... but investors in other parts of the world who don't like the current leadership of the country or what said leadership is doing to economic relations may not feel the same. It's possible we could see similar unrest in the markets like last week depending on whatever tweet happens to be sent out between Thursday and Friday. While I believe were no where near a scenario where a 100bp cut is necessary, with bond yields inverting and Trump's war on China grinding the global economy, international outlook for the dollar may not be as optimistic. All the same I've drawn out a possible double top scenario I'm picturing as the dollar approaches exhaustion towards the upperside of its range and supply pressure increases from international investors searching for better options. Previous bearish analysis was invalidated so I'll be watching with a neutral perspective as I avoid the dollar this week. But I wouldn't be surprised to see an overall bearish move by end of the week.
TVC:DXY
by david_eke
Should We Ignore USDCAD Head & Shoulders?Reasons for buying USDCAD: - Disappointing Canadian employment data last Friday - Price bounced off both the demand zone and support trend line - Crude Oil Futures price rejected resistance trend line Last Friday, Canadian employment posted a huge drop and unemployment increased by 0.2% to 5.7%, both missing estimates by a wide margin. Despite this, the CAD still managed to maintain some strength, supported by the rise in oil prices. But at this point of time, the chart is showing that maybe, the market has not fully priced in the weak data yet. In the 4-hour USDCAD chart, we can see that the price plunged but bounced off the demand zone and support trend line after the US announced a delay to impose tariffs. Crude Oil Futures price also approached and rejected resistance trend line. Although the announcement on tariffs is a positive news, tariffs are still set to be imposed and not totally removed. The trade war has been creating a lot of volatility in the market, so we should always keep a lookout for the latest developments and manage risks accordingly. The head and shoulders pattern may form and play out, but I don't trade solely on chart patterns, that is why in this case, I will go long on the USDCAD.
Long
by PipHike
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for Today, THU 08/15The Doublespeak from China and our Politicians Driving the Markets Yo-Yo The naive and clueless policy-by-tweet politicians (not "leaders" - we seem to have no leadership anywhere anymore at this moment) driving our economic governance (or, lack thereof), and the cunning opponent's deeply strategic moves defining the trade war, investors are being left dazed and confused with the whiplashes the markets are experiencing of late. As we stated earlier this week, "tread (and, trade) carefully, leaving enough room for sudden spikes in either direction". Today is likely going to be yet another day of empty-headed tweets and headlines about the trade war feeding knee jerk moves in the markets. Of course, our job here is not to idly pontificate about politicians and leadership but to try to identify potential investment and trading opportunities emerging from their speech and actions. Read below for our models' trading plans for the day. tradersai.com #ES #ESMINI #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #China #Yuan #Yields #Rates #Tariffs #Tradewar #recession
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Bitcoin medium-term negative outlook based on economic risksBitcoin is a valuable property. In future we need this kind of exchange mediums. So long-term trend still positive but its price is closely related to business cycles. This is for it being as an exchange medium. In trade war situation, more secure commodities like gold are more interesting and exchange medium ones are not. Technically, below 9575$ and 8850$ strong sell signals. above 1200$ the analysis isn't relevant and positive trend will continue.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DarkWaveHunter
Pause in trade war shifts market focus on another dataA temporary truce in the trade war was announced. Well, of course, a “truce” is not the right word we prefer a “pause”. The appreciation of the renminbi, as well as the decline in the VIX Index, are further evidence of tensions easing in the financial markets. Against this background, we again pay attention to the sale of gold. But we note that sales with the random points may turn out to be unprofitable, so we select the entry points carefully, taking into account at least an hour overbought and along daily maximum. Recall that the dollar is still very strong, which is bothers Trump. And in itself, it is an opportunity for its sales in the foreign exchange market. But the markets are more interested in the Fed’s further actions - will the Central Bank cut the rate again&? What could spur the Fed on easing monetary policy? First of all, weak macroeconomic data. So today's retail sales data may well give rise to dollar sales. Retail sales report is a monthly measurement of the retail industry. Monthly retail sales data is a chain indicator. That is, The report shows the total sales for the prior month. This specificity leads to the fact that chain indicators tend to fluctuate around the zero and after a strong growth period a decline period follows, and vice versa. So, over the last two months, US retail sales have been growing. To show better results this time too, the indicator must rise quite significantly concerning the three months periods. The US economy has been weak recently, there is a reason to expect weak data on retail sales. Since markets react not to the essence, but to the gossips, the outcome of the indicator in the negative zone (although this may be an increase relative the period of two months ) can trigger dollar sales. In this regard, today we will sell the dollar. First of all, against the pound. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2 %, however, industrial production decreased, and quite significantly (-1.6% m / m), which is the worst result over the last 3 years. China also showed weak industrial production data: plus 4.8% expected plus 5.8% (the minimum growth rate since 2002). Retail sales in Sino are also worse than expected.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
Overall view of EURUSD - Update of August the 5th's weekFundamental: US President Donald Trump tweeted his disappointment in the Fed on Thursday which caused some volatility but did not break EUR/USD from its range. His tweet stated that he was not happy about the dollar’s strength and attributed this to the Fed, stipulating that they have kept interest rates high compared to other countries. Trump's eagerness to lower DXY's value will probably give some punch to the FOREX pair which will seek for higher prices. Technical: After a false breakout of the long run demand level resulting to the new low of the year, EURUSD soared to higher levels and is now consolidating on a tight range. The pair is strongly bullish and in case of a range breakout will settle back at the supply level . Advice: Stay bullish and buy any low points while we don't break downside @1.11500. The first target could be viewed around @1.13000.
Long
by Theperfectionist
Overall view of WTI Crude Oil - Analysis of August 12th's weekFundamental: International-Brent crude oil futures closed higher on Friday despite an International Energy Agency report that showed demand growth dropping to its lowest level in 11 years. The IEA said global demand to May from January grew at its slowest pace since 2008, hurt by mounting signs of an economic slowdown and a ramping up of the U.S.-China trade dispute. Buyers instead were motivated by Euroilstock data that showed total crude and product inventories of 16 European nations in July were slightly lower than in June. Likewise, the commodity is strongly correlated to the US dollar index which showed lately a bear spike and increased odds of oil soaring. Technical: the energy commodity settled several times at the demand level forming a head and shoulder formation (or Triple bottom). An increase of traded volume coupled by a strong momentum made oil increased 7.42%. USOIL began a bullish trend and will attempt a breakout of the supply level. advice: Stay bullish and buy any low points while we don'T break downside 51.000. The target should be set at 60.000 or higher.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Theperfectionist
Delayed tariffs "for Christmas" might help HASBRO News/fundamental The USTR says that the tariffs on some items, including “certain toys,” will be delayed until Dec. 15. September is a key shipping month for those companies as they prepare for the holiday shopping season, when the majority of the industry’s business occurs. Hasbro told CNBC earlier this month that it would have “no choice but to pass along the increased costs to our U.S. customers” if the tariffs were put into place. -- Great risk reward ratio.
NASDAQ:MATLong
by dorfmanmaster
3
IBM due for a pullbackFundamental data IBM reported earnings and reaffirmed guidance. It was up over 5% on the news. Trade-war: "The U.S. Trade Representative said Tuesday 10% tariffs on about $300 billion in Chinese imports will go forward, but tariffs on some goods will be delayed until Dec. 15. Those items include cellphones, laptop computers , video game consoles, some toys, computer monitors, shoes and clothing." The cellphones could be the reason for AAPL rallying today. -- There is a good risk reward ratio (check out chart).
NYSE:IBMLong
by dorfmanmaster