Worsen news is comming soon about trade war.As technically assumed there are two target areas for the pair. Even if there would be a pullback the proposed targets are consistent.
Tradewar
Nasdaq updateTrend line got a 3rd touch on Friday, but still within the 200SMA as resistance. Great opportunity to trade breaks on either side. Good luck!
NQ1! - Trading the RangeNQ1!
Easy, big-picture setups.
Not much to say other then SELL the HI (Red), BUY the LO (Green).
Target the TOP or BOTTOM of the NEUTRAL zone (Grey).
With proper execution and risk mgmt, would expect a min. 200+ point trade out of that area.
EURUSD symmetrical triangle updateThe triangle maintains through the weekend. Still waiting for the continuation of the trade war to form the next trend. A break out strategy works here to buy the break on the upside or sell the break on the downside. Good Luck!
GBPJPY update Much like cable, GBPJPY approaches 125, the low of the aftermath of the Brexit vote. Broken weekly trend line shows more potential on the sell side. Trade war and geopolitical tensions cause investors to dump risky assets and go for safe havens, massively boosting JPY.
This week continue to sell to 125 and watch for next setups at the level, we could retest the broken trend line first. With current economic and political situation both in regard to Brexit and global economy, this pair seems set to break below 125 despite oversold technicals.
Unless we see progress in Brexit or trade war, this has further sell potential. Good Luck!
Is Apple About to Plummet?On our shorter time frame, it feels as though Apple may open the day lower come Monday morning, and looking at our 1 day time frame we can see that we just got a buy signal from the Megalodon and it has been building some momentum, however it is so important to pay attention to the US and China trade war. This is a huge determining factor for the direction of Apple’s stock in the near future.
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Overall view of WTI Crude Oil - Midterm AnalysisFundamental View: Oil prices fell almost 7% on Thursday, the most this year, as President Donald Trump’s threat to put additional 10% tariff on China hammered a market already tanking on disappointment over an inadequate U.S. interest rate cut. The fragile economy and looming oil supply surplus will almost certainly be exacerbated by the escalation of the trade war. As a result, the pitfalls for oil are growing.
Technical View: Since the end of June, oil has been on a bearish trend while trying by two attempts to drive prices higher. The 8 consecutive days of consolidation built-up enough volume to create a false upside breakout and dip the energy commodity more than 8%. It is now a selling spike phase eager to settle the security around the demand level .
Target: Stay bearish and sell any high point while we don't break upside 56.000 and aim a take profit around @52.000.
GBP/USD Ready for the Bullish Movement? 4H CHART EXPLANATION:
Based on the Higher Timeframe Analysis, we consider that this pair is on the end of the Bearish Trend. On the 4H timeframe, we would wait to the breakout of the last maximum Levels to be broke to consider placing a trade. The short term targets are the Top of the Descending Channel, the Resistance Zone, and the Lower timeframe Descending Wedge.
MULTI TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS:
-Daily:
-Weekly:
USDJPY - Long Upside PotentialWe have been long USDJPY and see the current level as an opportunity to increase our position due to alleviated concerns over the current state of the US/China trade war. This is highlighted by the S&P 500 rising 1.3% yesterday and White House adviser Larry Kudlow advising that the US is still open to negotiation with China. Therefore we still hold our long position but would not want to see the market drop below the Fibonacci support Level at $104.658 and on the upside in the near term we are aiming for the currency pair to cross the Fibonacci resistance level at $106.663.
Crude remains in bearish territoryThe first potential bearish flag I analyzed has played out though with a delay, and since price has managed to reach the first target to the lower diagonal support. With overall negative sentiment around the trader war and demand for Oil, I will be expecting the price to breach the support for a move lower towards 50.58 price level zone. The zone has proven to be a strong support level, so I'll be expecting some bounce from there before the price to continue lower.
US-China trade war is starting to get out of handChina loses patience. After Trump attacked China, markets have been waiting for China to the response.
Sino inflicted several very strong and unpleasant hits for the United States and Trump personally.
One . China lowered the value of the Yuan below its 7 to 1 peg against the dollar in response to a new series of U.S. tariffs. Thus, China partially solves the problems of its exporters arising from US sanctions. Recall, exporters are going to benefit from the devaluation of the national currency. As a result, with constant sales volumes in dollars, exporters receive more. Which, in fact, artificially inflates the financial results of exporters. Note that Trump for more than a month has been talking about the need to devalue the dollar to support American companies, but so far he cannot find support either from the Ministry of Finance or from the Fed. At that time, China one day solved this problem for itself.
Two . China Halts U.S. Agriculture Purchases. One of Trump's main complaints against China was the decline in US agricultural imports. What caused direct harm to US farmers and the US economy as a whole. So, the Chinese government has asked state-owned enterprises to suspend US agricultural imports. This is a severe hit to the pride of Trump and the US economy.
Three . Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns that China may cross out US administration’s success in restricting Iranian oil exports. US the sanctions and about 2 million barrels per day of crude has been forced out of the oil market, and BofAML believes that China if desired, can return a significant part of them - about 1.5 million b / s. What does this mean for the USA? A powerful diplomatic slap in the face, as well as potential problems for the whole US oil sector. The simultaneous release of 1.5 million b / d of oil to the market will lead to a sharp drop in oil prices. Analysts voiced estimates of decline up to $ 40 per barrel. And this will put the US oil industry on the brink of survival, or even beyond.
Total - everything is bad. Trump may well go to the next level of the conflict escalation. Too painful hits inflicted by China. And this means that commodity assets, including oil, should be sold. A save haven should be bought. We sell the dollar because one of Trump's possible reactions is the dollar devaluation. Currencies from developing countries are also worth selling. The Russian ruble which is under triple (or quadruple) pressure: falling oil, trade war, Russia's Central Bank cut its key interest rate, new sanctions by the United States, dispersal of rallies in Moscow, and this is not counting the main reason for the sale of the ruble - a weak economy of the Russian Federation.
HSBC (HK Entity) One of the two largest financial players in HK, and most certainly a derivative trade of the larger macroeconomic story. Keep this chart handy near-term.
China's Next Move - As of late Monday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin formally designated China as Currency Manipulator. If we weren't already in a trade war, this is undoubtedly a tipping point as to how aggressive the administration is willing to get with their trading partners...
Apple - Neutral Hedge PositionOn our post earnings analysis on the 31.07 we were bullish Apple as the stock was trading at $217 and had crossed the $213.5 Fibonacci level. We were therefore expecting that Apple could potentially hit all time highs but as we feared could happen a souring of US/China trade relations has caused a sharp reversal in Apple's stock price and we have therefore fully hedged our position whilst we await further developments in the equity markets.
Daily viewIn this vision its obvious that the price has lost the position of being ina bullsish direction and also we see the failed double top pattern. So even if the pullback is one of the assumptions, the Newsland dollar has choosed its way and the trade war has choosed the Japanese yen...
Update: EEM bear put spreadForgot to publish this idea a couple weeks ago:
BOT +2 VERTICAL EEM 100 20 SEP 19 42/41 PUT @.25
- pays 150 on max profit at 41 range on expiry
- breakeven at expiry 41.75. Needs a 2.7% drop to break even on the trade.
Slightly positive right now, and progressing well overall.
I put this trade on mid month when the EEM was around 43.
Looks like a type of H&S pattern forming. Watching the 42 range for neckline failure .
When Trump Made America Great Again - SPXSP:SPX
TVC:SHCOMP AMEX:VEU
TVC:SX5E
AMEX:VEU
1, Vertical lines: Thin Orange is Trump wins election. Thick Orange is start of Trump presidency
2. Chart Lines:
White is USA stock market, S&P500
Blue is the European “Dow Jones”, Euro Stoxx 50
Orange is the market cap weighted index of the entire planet’s stock markets (the 44 countries with capital markets), except the S&P 500. “All World minus USA” ETF.
Red is China stock market.
Summary:
Between January 29th and May 24th, 2018, The U.S. went from lagging the World’s stock market to clearly leading the Earth’s stock. I propose this is a direct result of the announcement and implementation of Tariffs. 1st with $50B of tariffs on China on March 22nd, 2018.
- I had initially thought this was due to Brexit (Britain exiting the European Union), However, the Brexit vote happened in June 2017, and actually seems to have boosted their markets.
- For symmetry, and to compare apples 2 apples, this chart is in log percentage format.
Huawei not happy with FLEXFLEX is suffering from the trade-war between Trump and Xi (US and China).
Huawei is "angered" at how FLEX has managed the situation.
They report earnings today after hours. (July 25th)
I would sell all my position right away.
SP500 won't go much further up from 3000Below is technical analysis based on chart readings. Refer to chart for macro commentary.
SP500 meaningfully tested 3000 five times in the past 12 months.
First two formed an M resistance - didn't break through.
Third time was also two very close attempts - didn't break through.
Finally, in July, we have seen 3000+ twice. One's already past us, the other one - we are in it right now.
Does this look familiar to you? Another M shape maybe?
Coupled with the macro conditions, I believe the market cannot go much higher from now on, and will correct 10-15% by Dec 2019.
I have sold my SPY . Planning to enter below strategy this week:
Short 270 SPY call Dec2019
Long 300 SPY call Dec2019
Initial credit to buy TLT
Monthly covered call on TLT
I will close above strategy by Dec 2019. Fingers crossed.
GBPJPY LONGThis pair has shown a strong bullish momentum yesterday and looks set to continue this today.
I have drawn up two potential buy zones on this 4 hour chart.
Looking to enter on pullbacks to these zones.
Trade safe and good luck!
AUSSIE Likely To Slump Towards 0.6700 Level. A SHORT SWING TRADENow that The RBA has cut its interest and the economy not doing so well we could see this pair slump to 67 cents!
Bare in mind that the 0.7000 level is a very crucial resistance at the moment and any upward momentum is unlikely to happen as the trade war persists putting pressure on the AUD.
0.67000 level is another crucial support that has been drawn from the monthly charts and in my view this where the price is headed next. so below are the trade details. shall there be any updates i will update them below
TRADE ENTRY LEVEL: 0.69100
STOP LOSS: 0.71100
TAKE PROFIT: 0.67000
RR: 1:1
TRADE TYPE: SHORT
CHEERS
FOREX, ruble, August and Jaroslaw KosatyThe fact that there was no fundamental force majeure yesterday led to the “calm” Wednesday. In fact, the last statistics outcome prepared in line with forecasts as well as UK inflation rate. After crossing the new local Minimum yesterday, the pound “changed the situation” in the afternoon. So, we recommend looking for points for its buying.
Traditionally we cannot but mention Mr Trump’s Twitter account which he uses as “negotiation table”. “We have a long way to go as far as tariffs where China is concerned, if we want. We have another $325 billion we can put a tariff on, if we want,” Trump said. As the result Gold at 1430. So, we recoomend to sell gold from these points, and buy it from these 1400.
As for the Russian ruble sellings. Well, August is not “the luckiest” month for the ruble. “ August's” Force majeure situations, as well as fundamental negative have affected the ruble. Start with the August Coup (1991) and default (1998) to Kursk submarine disaster and Russian-Georgian (2008) and Russian-Ukrainian wars (2014). In this light, Jaroslaw Kosaty, a currency strategist at Poland’s largest bank, sees the currency sinking about 9% against the dollar by the end of the year. His forecast of 69 rubles per dollar. The reason is that Bank of Russia’s switch to monetary easing. Therefore we recommend selling Russian ruble.
The Federal Reserve abandoned foreign-exchange-market intervention. Recall that a strong dollar is on Trump’s way. As a result, his verbal attacks are becoming more aggressive and let the markets suspect that the United States will move from something in mind to something in kind. Treasury can intervene without the Federal Reserve's agreement (2000). We are waiting to see if it happens again. But the rick factor exists. The most interesting trading option is short dollar. Therefore, we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market.
Our trading preferences for today are as follows: sell US dollar, oil, ruble and gold, but buy the pound.
BTC - Short updatePlease see previous idea for in more in depth logic.
As kind of expected, the price reached and rejected off the 4.618 advancement.
From here, BTC has the potential of turning bullish again once the daily crosses over the 2/1 line. Potentially within a couple days from now.
That could cause it to make another run at breaking 14k
But until a breakout is confirmed, the trend suggests bull trapping be happening.
Good luck!
