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Tradewar

Gold: 2nd and Strong Breakout of Falling TrendlineSince the first breakout of the 3-Month falling trendline, the gold fell all the way close to the previous low and found support at 1273.2. The price consolidated for about 2 trading days and yesterday it finally jumped and broke above the falling trendline for the second time. This is also fundamentally caused by falling stock prices and weakening of the dollar as it found resistance at the previous high which is largely the cause of the US-China trade war. The dollar is most likely to fall further resulting in a stronger gold price in the short to mid-term perspective. Wait for the price to retrace lower and look for buy opportunity again when the price is closer to 1280.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
NVDA $208 Don’t Slack, I’m Bringing Sexy Back1. Face it, Bitcoin is back and NASDAQ:NVDA got crushed end of 2018 specifically because of the rev losses from their flagship mining chips. (Which i was not aware are connected to the A.I. in self driving vehicles). Billions are going into that industry too. 2. They beat earnings on Thurs, 5/16 and shot up to $173 after hours, however what i’m about to show you is the algos needed to hit their 618 fib level target first... Which they did in the last 10 min of trading on Friday, 5/17. From a wall street perspective it’s, “Why would i go long and buy the crap out of NVDA when the algo division of my own firm is still shorting the crap out of it, until they hit their target.”. I propose they finally hit their target late Fri. 3. Possible headwinds lie in the China trade war, which ironically may give crypto a boost. The boost being, “If i have to pay a ridiculous tariff on this one thing my company uses everyday, then why not pay for it with Bitcoin/Litcoin/Stellar and save myself a shit ton of money”. Bypassing the tariffs. STOP LOSS IS VERY TIGHT. If NVDA drops & closes below $152 = BAD and sell all call options.. That would indicate that NVDA is possibly just still a gigantic year long correction. The yellow arrows are the 3 price & expirations staggered out for optimal risk/reward. Your welcome.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by jgeno
Prospects for peace in trade wars, Japan’s GDP, OPEC+ and BrexitThe previous week has been having a hard time fundamentally duo to Sino-U.S. trade war. China does not intend to a resumption of negotiation still Washington is continuous to speak from a position of strength and power. Therefore the “happy end” was very close but suddenly became subtle. Investors have been hoped for restarting the dialogue and rising in seeking compromise, but on Friday it became clear that it is not something should be counted on. According to the Chinese state media, the country sees no reason for the resumption of the negotiation process. Thus, all hope for a meeting of the heads of China and the United States in the framework of the G-20 summit at the end of June. That is, another month and a half should not count on stress-reduction. From the perspective of such news, we have become even more confident about our position to buy safe-haven assets (Japanese yen and gold). Accordingly, we are planning to look for points for buying safe-haven assets (Japanese yen and gold) on the intraday basis. As for the yen, today's data on Japan's GDP is additional and a strong argument in favor of buying the Japanese currency. GDP growth in the first quarter significantly exceeded analysts' expectations. Everything is still bad with the pound, that ended the week with the strongest decline in the last few years. Markets are selling duo to another Parliament vote failure in Britain. Prime Minister Theresa May is under pressure by not only her opponents but also members of her own party. We are talking about her resignation from the post of a leader according to the results of the fourth vote in Parliament. And the results for the current scenario are predictable - a vote “against” the May plan. Despite the extremely attractive points for pound buying, we continue to wait for a fundamental reason for their start. The results of the previous week appeared pretty successful for oil. But we are still full of pessimism. On the one hand, the trade war is a very negative signal for oil demand, and therefore for a possible increase in asset prices. In addition, we are skeptical about the future of OPEC +. That is, from the supply side in the near future there is a very serious threat. Total, this week we will continue to look for opportunities to sell the asset. But do not tend to get carried away and each intraday position has to be limited with fairly rigid stops. The fact is that the OPEC + meeting held this weekend somehow reassured investors who were nervous. OPEC + participants expressed readiness to comply with the agreement until the end of 2019. And yes, the number of active rigs in the United States has fallen to a minimum over the last 13 months. There are enough bullish signals for oil, especially considering very serious tensions and problem situations in Iran, Venezuela and Libya. As for our preferences for this week in general and Monday in particular, they are as follows: we will look for points for buying the euro against the US dollar, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold and the Japanese yen. Considering how uneasy the financial markets are, we will limit our positions with fairly shortstops, especially since some of the deals are definitely at odds with the current mood on the markets.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Trade War and Commodities - Technical Behavior ExplainedFirst let's take a look what happened between China and United States. FUNDAMENTAL VISION -At the beginning of 2018, United States started a trade war with China, imposing tariffs on different products. -In response to this measure, the Chinese government imposed tariffs on US products including some raw materials, the main product exported by the United States to China. -In relation to this, there was an excessive decrease in exports, reaching the minimum quantity exported in the last 8 years. -By decreasing the demand for products, this led to a decline in prices. In the case of soybean, we saw a few days ago how the price reached the minimum since 2008. TECHNICAL VISION WHEAT WEEKLY CHART SOYBEAN WEEKLY CHART -We observe that price behavior was pretty similar in both assets. -In case of Soybean, the first down move was stronger than the Wheat, but then both of them started a similar consolidation/accumulation process to continue the down move. -In the case of Wheat, price did a -18% movement since the previous Max., and then formed a flag pattern that lasted around 5 months. The breakout was perfect, and the bearish trend continued with a -16% movement. In total the downside movement of Wheat was around -28%. -The first down move of Soybean, was around -24%. The pattern of consolidation was an ascending wedge for about 6 months, in which the movement after the breakout was slow at the beginning, but then it dropped on a -12% move.
OANDA:WHEATUSD
by ThinkingAntsOk
Buy soya, as trump is hinting to subsidize itthis trade is based on trump's tweet: "If we bought 15 Billion Dollars of Agriculture from our Farmers, far more than China buys now, we would have more than 85 Billion Dollars left over for new Infrastructure, Healthcare, or anything else. China would greatly slow down, and we would automatically speed up!" This is with regards to american agricultural exports to china -> Soybeans This is similar to subsidy, if government subsidies consumer, the price goes down, in this case the producer is subsidised so the price will go up (government will buy no matter what..)
OANDA:SOYBNUSDLong
by ahmedse
The USA vs CHINA a view over the 2 Index by ThinkingAntsOkUSA vs China -Trade War between those two country’s has shown how the markets react on a Negative way to this kind of events. -Since May 1, Sp500 futures have been falling 5% from Historical Higher highs due to conflicts with China, however, China Index has been on a bearish movement since 17th of April accumulating a bearish move of -10,21%, more than twice of the E-mini SP 500 -While this conflict keep on going we can expect markets to keep reacting on a negative way -On E-Mini Sp500 we can see that price is inside a bearish channel since the beginning of the movement, this channel has been working as the main trend of that move. - By Elliott wave theory we can label this structure as a Complex corrective form “ Triple - Threes” and we can expect price to reach again the bottom trendline of the bearish channel, before starting a correction of the whole down movement - On China Index if price consolidates below 10645.00 we can expect a continuation of the bearish trend towards 9962.00
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
AUDUSD - Depreciation of the Aussie Dollar AcceleratesAs I said two weeks ago, the AUDUSD went lower than 0.70 and now I believe it will go to 0.68 where there is a strong support from January 2016 for the following reasons: 1- US Dollar Index is on the Upside. 2-The weekly MACD looks bearish. 3- Bad news from the Reserve Bank of Australia. 4- US-China trade war: AUD seen as a proxy for China’s economic wellbeing. On the other hand, if there are good news from the US-China trade, AUD will be one of the currencies to buy in the short time. However, I do not expect any good news.
by Joel_Ochoa
S&P 500 - Daily: How serious is this trade war with China?Sentiment: Short Market Structure: Confirmed Double Top Daily Resistance Level: 2950 Daily Support Level: 2800 Other Key Levels: 2700 - 2350 - 2125 November 9th, 2016 - a date we may hear a lot of in the next few months. The S&P 500 hasn’t closed below this day ($2,137) since Trump took office. The market rallied over 45% over the last two years, but this trade war with China has triggered a “national emergency” and is starting to eat into investors profits. The technicals also line up with the tension from the trade war. Let’s break down the Daily chart to grasp what is in store for the lifeline of the US economy. Let’s start with the previous high at the $2,940 area. Price creates an all-time high however immediately experienced a loss of -20% to our key level $2,350 breaking through multiple key levels. Next, price pushes back up creating consistent higher highs and lows. A beautiful, almost artificial trend. This trend is respected for months until price reaches about $2,956, not able to confidently clear the highs created at $2,940. Could be the beginning of a double top with $2,350 acting as a neckline. Looking closer you see that between May 1-7 a double top is confirmed as it pushes through the neckline. The following week, we have a confirmed EMA crossover and a test of our support level $2,800. After the retest of current support, there is a 61.8% retracement on May 15th. Predictions Fundamentals: We’re following the trade talks, but most news outlets will try to reinforce a positive sentiment to prevent panic because watching your retirement fund lose 5% in a week is never a reassuring feeling. A positive deal will still result in lingering tension as the two leaders battle it out on the world stage and China tries to hold firm. Technicals: A conservative predication would include a retrace back to the blue line marked retest area, which is also the neckline of the double top. If we find market structure at the retest area this would create another shorting opportunity. The first target level would be support, the $2,800 level. A riskier prediction would be to look for price to push through the $2,800 level within this week or next. Levels for taking profit would be the 38.2%, and 61.8% retracement levels. What would make this trade invalid? If price forms market structure at the $2,800 level I would look for long opportunities. If news comes out regarding trade talks, I would exit positions until indecision has subsided. A confirmed break pass the retest area View this article on 9to5FX.com
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Anthony_Sledge
EURJPY: Trade War For My Account Also Welcome everyone to this new trading analysis on this Wednesday! We are looking at the EURJPY pair on the 4h chart. Trade war between Trump and Xi is real.. Trump stated a few minutes ago that Xi from China offered something good between the deal. Instantly all XXX/JPY pairs gained momentum to the upside. Good for my positions as im going to the worst trading week since im trading profitable. How is your trading during the trade war going? Any tips for become super focused on anything besides trading? Comment Below. Wishing everyone success and great weekend!
Long
by darian_fx
US30 SHORTHigher prices have been rejected on the daily, 4 hour & hourly chart. Massive bearish engulfing candle on the daily and also on the 4 hour, due to trump having a major impact on the movement of the market we had a major rally up towards the top of the channel but as you can see the channel trend was still respected and because of that along with my multiple confluences i am favouring a move to the downside, 25000 is my target area and i will be closing partials along the way down. i have been monitoring the US30 for some time now and have been anticipating a very big short, it seems that the short has been delayed and not derailed so because of that along with everything else i am staying in this sell and will update you as this moves along. Lets secure the bag together because everyday is Money day! Follow my social platforms, Instagram - Vellly - Instagram - Learnitempire Youtube - Learn interact trade.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by LitCap-Vell
EUR/USD Next Target is 1.1305 Fueled By Chinese Tariff IncreaseThe EUR/USD currency pair has gotten a big boost as a result of China stating that it will impose tariffs on $60 Billion of U.S goods starting June 1st. This action has undoubtedly extended the ongoing trade war between the two countries. China's declaration came three days after the US action of all most tripling tariffs on $200 Billion of Chinese imported goods. The EUR/USD bullish momentum has picked up steam as a result of China's promise to raise tariffs on US goods. As a result of the actions of the two countries, the USD has take a hit in the short term. Click here to read the full article which includes predictions of the EUR/USD next target. disclaimer: The above opinions should be used for research and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice because we are not investment advisers.
by mstardom
Chart of the day: 2800 key support level for ESAOver the last 18 months, the 2800 level has been a consistent significant support/resistance level for the ESA. With China making its retaliatory moves yesterday, we are probably at peak negativity with regards to the trade war until the run-up to the Trump-Xi meeting in end June. Please note, I do not think this is a BTFD moment, it is more of a watch for the consolidation and fade the rallies type situation. For more information on how to use the SSR levels, please search for Relative Force Significant Support and Resistance under Scripts.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WellTrainedMonkey
Bearish picture still intactFundamental analysis: Although signs of small recovery of the euro zone started showing according to economic indicators, trade war escalation raised markets concerns of slowing global growth which is not benefiting the European union nor giving any hopes of rate hikes by the ECB, therefore giving the USD more strength as a safe haven. Technical analysis: EUR/USD has been rallying for the past few days creating higher lows/higher highs but this was clearly a pullback since it failed to close above a key resistance level around 1.125-1.126 where is located the 50-D SMA, a horizontal resistance line and a descending trend line since January ( all shown on the chart ). I also noticed a shooting star candlestick pattern which is a visual description of what happened today: Bulls tried taking prices higher but the movement lacked follow-through. After that bears took over, sent prices lower and most importantly managed to close the day well below the open. In my opinion, tomorrow is gonna be a bearish day. However, bears need more work to do. In other words, first support to be broken is near 1.12 figure where is located 20-D SMA after that 1.1172 under which the bear trend will continue and retest 1.111 YTD low.
Short
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Eur-Usd, May 2019 = August 2015?Does anyone else see a simile with August 2015? In that month Usd-Cnh jumped from 6.20 to 6.60, S&P 500 -15%, copper -9%, and Eur-Usd has reached a gain of over 700 pips. “China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries and how to do it specifically,” Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, said in a tweet. For the first time, I read about boycotting US government bonds. A taboo has been broken, which so far few have taken into consideration given that China is the largest holder of government bonds. We see that something is changing in this commonplace. We must recalibrate all the Chinese reaction function! The markets are likely to be more frightened by this reference to government bonds than to 60bn of duties.
by TradingwDavid
USDKRW - Depreciation of the Korean Won Accelerates. After breaking the 2yr highs a couple of days ago, now it seems we will get close to 1210, a level reached on January 2017. I expect the USDKRW to go higher, especially since the slowdown in local economy and not good news from the US/China trade talks. I do not recommend buying the KRW at his levels. Any bad news from US/China trade talks will make the KRW go lower, and in case of good news I do not see traders going back to KRW.
by Joel_Ochoa
2
Stocks Likely to Close the GapWith the trade war escalating, stocks are likely to continue their slide. Investors world wide were hoping for clarification on the trade war, but what they received was an ambiguous tweet that was later deleted. China appears ready to escalate, which should add to the tensions and risk off tone. Stocks are very likely to close the gap down to lower levels, through the vacuum zone. The Kovach Momentum Indicators have waned a bit, but momentum is likely to pick up closer to open. After testing 2837, it is likely that they will slice through this level if fear persists.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by quantguy