Get started

Tradewar

AUDUSD - Depreciation of the Aussie Dollar AcceleratesAs I said two weeks ago, the AUDUSD went lower than 0.70 and now I believe it will go to 0.68 where there is a strong support from January 2016 for the following reasons: 1- US Dollar Index is on the Upside. 2-The weekly MACD looks bearish. 3- Bad news from the Reserve Bank of Australia. 4- US-China trade war: AUD seen as a proxy for China’s economic wellbeing. On the other hand, if there are good news from the US-China trade, AUD will be one of the currencies to buy in the short time. However, I do not expect any good news.
by Joel_Ochoa
S&P 500 - Daily: How serious is this trade war with China?Sentiment: Short Market Structure: Confirmed Double Top Daily Resistance Level: 2950 Daily Support Level: 2800 Other Key Levels: 2700 - 2350 - 2125 November 9th, 2016 - a date we may hear a lot of in the next few months. The S&P 500 hasn’t closed below this day ($2,137) since Trump took office. The market rallied over 45% over the last two years, but this trade war with China has triggered a “national emergency” and is starting to eat into investors profits. The technicals also line up with the tension from the trade war. Let’s break down the Daily chart to grasp what is in store for the lifeline of the US economy. Let’s start with the previous high at the $2,940 area. Price creates an all-time high however immediately experienced a loss of -20% to our key level $2,350 breaking through multiple key levels. Next, price pushes back up creating consistent higher highs and lows. A beautiful, almost artificial trend. This trend is respected for months until price reaches about $2,956, not able to confidently clear the highs created at $2,940. Could be the beginning of a double top with $2,350 acting as a neckline. Looking closer you see that between May 1-7 a double top is confirmed as it pushes through the neckline. The following week, we have a confirmed EMA crossover and a test of our support level $2,800. After the retest of current support, there is a 61.8% retracement on May 15th. Predictions Fundamentals: We’re following the trade talks, but most news outlets will try to reinforce a positive sentiment to prevent panic because watching your retirement fund lose 5% in a week is never a reassuring feeling. A positive deal will still result in lingering tension as the two leaders battle it out on the world stage and China tries to hold firm. Technicals: A conservative predication would include a retrace back to the blue line marked retest area, which is also the neckline of the double top. If we find market structure at the retest area this would create another shorting opportunity. The first target level would be support, the $2,800 level. A riskier prediction would be to look for price to push through the $2,800 level within this week or next. Levels for taking profit would be the 38.2%, and 61.8% retracement levels. What would make this trade invalid? If price forms market structure at the $2,800 level I would look for long opportunities. If news comes out regarding trade talks, I would exit positions until indecision has subsided. A confirmed break pass the retest area View this article on 9to5FX.com
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Anthony_Sledge
EURJPY: Trade War For My Account Also Welcome everyone to this new trading analysis on this Wednesday! We are looking at the EURJPY pair on the 4h chart. Trade war between Trump and Xi is real.. Trump stated a few minutes ago that Xi from China offered something good between the deal. Instantly all XXX/JPY pairs gained momentum to the upside. Good for my positions as im going to the worst trading week since im trading profitable. How is your trading during the trade war going? Any tips for become super focused on anything besides trading? Comment Below. Wishing everyone success and great weekend!
Long
by darian_fx
US30 SHORTHigher prices have been rejected on the daily, 4 hour & hourly chart. Massive bearish engulfing candle on the daily and also on the 4 hour, due to trump having a major impact on the movement of the market we had a major rally up towards the top of the channel but as you can see the channel trend was still respected and because of that along with my multiple confluences i am favouring a move to the downside, 25000 is my target area and i will be closing partials along the way down. i have been monitoring the US30 for some time now and have been anticipating a very big short, it seems that the short has been delayed and not derailed so because of that along with everything else i am staying in this sell and will update you as this moves along. Lets secure the bag together because everyday is Money day! Follow my social platforms, Instagram - Vellly - Instagram - Learnitempire Youtube - Learn interact trade.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by LitCap-Vell
EUR/USD Next Target is 1.1305 Fueled By Chinese Tariff IncreaseThe EUR/USD currency pair has gotten a big boost as a result of China stating that it will impose tariffs on $60 Billion of U.S goods starting June 1st. This action has undoubtedly extended the ongoing trade war between the two countries. China's declaration came three days after the US action of all most tripling tariffs on $200 Billion of Chinese imported goods. The EUR/USD bullish momentum has picked up steam as a result of China's promise to raise tariffs on US goods. As a result of the actions of the two countries, the USD has take a hit in the short term. Click here to read the full article which includes predictions of the EUR/USD next target. disclaimer: The above opinions should be used for research and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice because we are not investment advisers.
by mstardom
Chart of the day: 2800 key support level for ESAOver the last 18 months, the 2800 level has been a consistent significant support/resistance level for the ESA. With China making its retaliatory moves yesterday, we are probably at peak negativity with regards to the trade war until the run-up to the Trump-Xi meeting in end June. Please note, I do not think this is a BTFD moment, it is more of a watch for the consolidation and fade the rallies type situation. For more information on how to use the SSR levels, please search for Relative Force Significant Support and Resistance under Scripts.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WellTrainedMonkey
Bearish picture still intactFundamental analysis: Although signs of small recovery of the euro zone started showing according to economic indicators, trade war escalation raised markets concerns of slowing global growth which is not benefiting the European union nor giving any hopes of rate hikes by the ECB, therefore giving the USD more strength as a safe haven. Technical analysis: EUR/USD has been rallying for the past few days creating higher lows/higher highs but this was clearly a pullback since it failed to close above a key resistance level around 1.125-1.126 where is located the 50-D SMA, a horizontal resistance line and a descending trend line since January ( all shown on the chart ). I also noticed a shooting star candlestick pattern which is a visual description of what happened today: Bulls tried taking prices higher but the movement lacked follow-through. After that bears took over, sent prices lower and most importantly managed to close the day well below the open. In my opinion, tomorrow is gonna be a bearish day. However, bears need more work to do. In other words, first support to be broken is near 1.12 figure where is located 20-D SMA after that 1.1172 under which the bear trend will continue and retest 1.111 YTD low.
Short
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Eur-Usd, May 2019 = August 2015?Does anyone else see a simile with August 2015? In that month Usd-Cnh jumped from 6.20 to 6.60, S&P 500 -15%, copper -9%, and Eur-Usd has reached a gain of over 700 pips. “China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries and how to do it specifically,” Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, said in a tweet. For the first time, I read about boycotting US government bonds. A taboo has been broken, which so far few have taken into consideration given that China is the largest holder of government bonds. We see that something is changing in this commonplace. We must recalibrate all the Chinese reaction function! The markets are likely to be more frightened by this reference to government bonds than to 60bn of duties.
by TradingwDavid
USDKRW - Depreciation of the Korean Won Accelerates. After breaking the 2yr highs a couple of days ago, now it seems we will get close to 1210, a level reached on January 2017. I expect the USDKRW to go higher, especially since the slowdown in local economy and not good news from the US/China trade talks. I do not recommend buying the KRW at his levels. Any bad news from US/China trade talks will make the KRW go lower, and in case of good news I do not see traders going back to KRW.
by Joel_Ochoa
2
Stocks Likely to Close the GapWith the trade war escalating, stocks are likely to continue their slide. Investors world wide were hoping for clarification on the trade war, but what they received was an ambiguous tweet that was later deleted. China appears ready to escalate, which should add to the tensions and risk off tone. Stocks are very likely to close the gap down to lower levels, through the vacuum zone. The Kovach Momentum Indicators have waned a bit, but momentum is likely to pick up closer to open. After testing 2837, it is likely that they will slice through this level if fear persists.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Likely to Close the GapThe whole world was glued to twitter waiting for an update on the trade war from President Trump. However what they received was rather anticlimactic: a tweet about saying we don't need to rush a trade deal, which was later deleted. It is likely the markets will interpret this as a risk-off event, since they were really expecting more clarification. Currently, the Kovach Momentum Indicators suggest momentum has stagnated. Bonds are currently ranging, and are likely to drift upward, testing the upper bound of the range.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by quantguy
Trade war results, dollar’s future and a lot of statisticsThe data on the US trade balance was published yesterday. In the light of the unfolding trade wars, this publication can be regarded as an indicator of victory/failure. So, the negative trade balance between the USA and China in March decreased to a record low in the last 5 years. Formally, this can be written as a victory for the United States. But on the other hand, in the first quarter, imports to the United States from China fell by 13.6%, while exports fell by 17.6%. Well, probably, this cannot be considered as a victory, maybe only a pyrrhic victory. In addition, the US trade deficit with Mexico reached a record $ 9.5 billion in March, and with Europe it grew by more than half to $ 14.2 billion (Trump could send greetings to the weak peso and the euro, as well as a strong dollar). Markets are increasingly worried that Trump is not bluffing when he accuses China of disrupting negotiations and threatens a new active phase of the trade war. In addition, attacks on a strong dollar from Trump’s side might intensify. Strengthening the dollar, as we see, eliminates the effects of current victories in trade wars. So besides the new victories, Trump also needs to ensure a lower dollar. Goldman Sachs currency strategists obviously “feel” that, because they observe the prerequisites for a weaker dollar in the medium term. Also, it should be noted that Friday will be intensive with macroeconomic statistics such as a block of data from the UK, which among other things include statistics on GDP, industrial production and the trade balance. Given the volume and importance of data, an explosion of volatility in pound pairs is almost inevitable. Since the pound movement direction directly depends on the output data, therefore today we recommend today to try trading on the news. So, a couple of minutes before the data release, we place buy-stop and sell-stop orders at 20-30 points from the current price at that time. GBPUSD will be best for work with. News and the subsequent surge in volatility will lead to the directional movement, the formation will be possible to earn on. Using this trading tactic, do not try to predict the price movement, but simply join the general market movement. In addition to statistics from the UK we are waiting for a block of data on the labor market in Canada, as well as consumer inflation in the United States. So in the afternoon in dollar pairs, and especially USDCAD will not be boring. Again, this is a reason for active trading and earnings. Our positions did not change much at the end of the week. We are continuing to look for points for buying the Australian dollar and the euro against the dollar, selling of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as gold and the Japanese yen buying.
by Trade24Fx
NZDCAD Awaits Triangle Breakout Momentum To Start Trending!The main chart shows the monthly TF of NZDCAD pair from which it is visible that the pair is confined in a triangle. The red horizontal lines represents the concrete support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts. Should the triangle break (the monthly candle closing outside the triangle) we could potentially see the price target those red horizontal levels! My view on this pair is neutral, which means the break to either side is a possibility. The trade war conflict i feel will likely decide the fate of this pair. This just represents the analysis of mine on this pair. shall the trade criteria meet i will post the details in a new post
by FX618Analysis
Bonds Due for a RetracementBonds have been gradually overbought owing to a slew of risk off factors including global economic fears, and the trade war. At this point, we may be due for a corrective phase by the end of the week. There is a representative from China flying in, so this may provide a much needed respite from the doom and gloom. The Kovach Momentum Indicators suggest that momentum is gradually turning negative, which may support our position. Shorting near current levels would provide high risk reward because there is a vacuum zone to the down side, and new relative highs would provide a good stop loss. We know we're wrong if these are breached.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by quantguy
BLACK GOLD Could Slump To 55.00 If the CHANNEL Breaks!The main chart shows the daily timeframe perspective of the black gold (WTI) in which it can be seen that the price has been confined in a channel respected on multiple occasions! The red horizontal lines represent the nearby support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts. Technically should the channel break (the daily candle closing convincingly below the daily 50 EMA and the channel) we could see the price target the next support in sight at 55.00 level. However have a look at the attached image above, where the price action is based on the weekly TF. Often, the 50 EMA act as a dynamic support and resistance. Here we see the weekly 50 EMA which could potentially prevent the price hitting the 55.00 level. So for this trade scenario to be valid we not only need to see the channel and the daily 50 EMA break but also the weekly candle closing below the weekly 50 EMA! Should all this criteria meet we will wait for the price to retrace slightly before making a SHORT entry to target 55.00 level Fundamental factors for the black gold are mixed in my perspective. Many countries are trying their best to limit their output but on the flip side with the trade war fears, the global slowdown would likely affect the crude's demands. So in a nutshell until a trade deal is reached we could see the WTI slip to 55.00 before it starts to rebound again higher in the future. This just represents my analysis of this pair, shall the trade criteria meet in the future i will post the details in a new post.
TVC:USOILShort
by FX618Analysis
CADJPY Might Drop To 79.000 Should US-SINO Trade War Persists!The chart shows the weekly TF where the price is confined in a well respected triangle! The nearby red horizontal lines are the concrete support and resistance levels taken from the Monthly charts. Currently should the price break the triangle to the downside, we can expect the price to fall towards 79.000 level, On the flip side should the price break to the upside, the potential target here would be 87.000 and 91.500. However, the current fundamental picture suggest a break to the downside is more favorable as the trade war fears are back in action and risk OFF markets are dominating. In the current state of the market we can expect the safehaven FX pairs to gain traction such as the JPY! Moreover, OIL which is closely related to the CAD pair looses steam in risk OFF markets as the global slowdown fear persists!. So taking all this into consideration, should the triangle break to the downside we can probably expect it to HIT 79.000 level This just represents my analysis on this pair and should the trade criteria meet i will post the detail in a new post. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis