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Tradewar

TAIEX and China Stocks Both Benefit From US-China Trade DealTAIEX enjoys a positive correlation coefficient with the Shanghai Composite which has strengthened consistently over the past few months. Then if we believe that a trade deal with the US is coming then the TAIEX will surely enjoy some gains as well even especially since TAIEX greatly outperforms Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component. However, TAIEX RSI is well into the overbought territory and let's also not forget TAIEX suffered its worst single day loss (6 percent) since the 2008 financial crisis back in January of 2018. More volatility to come?
TWSE:IX0001
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
High Probability Intraday Setup for DJI MINI FUTURESThe following are trades setup ideas in 15 mins chart for DJI MINI FUTURES There are 2 distinctive dotted lines labeled as (provided by www.decisivealpha.com) 1. AI's Intraday Resistance 2. AI's Intraday Support These 2 Support and Resistance signal lines are generated by machine learning AI robots as a high probability trade setup for long or short provided by www.decisivealpha.com Long Setup If price action closed above the Pivot Point Line AND demonstrate bullish sentiment by being able to close above the Pivot Point line with subsequent bearish candle retests, the idea is to long on weakness and take profit at Pivot Point R1/R2 price region. Depending on trader's positioning sizing, partial profit could be taken at Pivot Point R1. The remaining position could be utilized to ride the intraday bull sentiment should it continues to approach Pivot Point R2 profit target. OR Short Setup If price action demonstrates weakness by closing below the AI's Intraday support line AND eventually closed below the Pivot Point S1 line, the idea is to short on strength and take profit at Pivot Point S2 price region. The term "Long on weakness" and "Short on strength" is an important entry technique for traders to achieve alpha. Otherelse than having a winning strategy edge, the entry methodology could significantly improve profit efficiency by achieving better RRR (risk to reward ratio). This for example, could be accomplished by "short on strength" as a trader want to "Sell Higher" and "Buy Low". Instead of relying on 100% discretionary (human) trading, the robots will provide trade execution plan and it is entirely up to the human trader's decision to follow. This is highly recommended to trade during Europe and US market hours for liquidity and volume for this product. Free AI's trades setup: www.decisivealpha.com Facebook: www.facebook.com
CBOT_MINI:YMM2019
by WolfeDayRocker
END OF DOWN TREND? POSSIBLE 600 PIP TRADEGood day risk takers, The Market has been in an intermediate down trend since early April 2018, for the first two months of the downtrend it had a strong momentum. Market then started to run out of steam but slowly pushing down until entering an 11 month channel with occasional fake outs to trap sellers and buyers. In November 2018 Market tested support at 1.1216 which is a very important level which held in May-June 2017 and November 2016. Price failed to break through and continued in its channel until testing the support again in 09 March 2019 and now which is current market price (02 April 2019). We see divergence on the weekly time frame for the 14 period RSI which indicates a reversal is eminent. The question we have to answer now is that is this the end of a downtrend(intermediate), there is an 11 year old trend line which the market respects and could possibly be the long term target if the market were to reverse which is also a resistance for the primary downtrend. In terms of fundamentals the US-China trade talks are still the main issue of concern, there is also Brexit for the Euro and Quantitative Easing, all these would be instrumental in driving the pair up to the 1.1800 which is possible were the trend line would extend to at the time.
Long
by ZAYN1001
Sell AUDUSD Because Chinese Growth Slowdown Isnt OverThere are plenty of technical reasons to avoid AUDUSD. Nearly all exponential moving averages, which more heavily weigh the more recent days than the ones further away, point towards a continuation in the downward trend. The bull bear power index also indicates that AUDUSD long is an overcrowded trade. Indeed, data from DailyFX backs up this claim with its data from its parent company IG which can be found here: www.dailyfx.com But the thematic background is truly what will mainly driving this paid in conjunction with the likely poor data releases this weak. But the weakness in AUDUSD doesn't stem from inherent weakness in the Australian economy as much as it does weakness in the Chinese economy. Perhaps one could read this as splitting hairs since the Aussie economy is so dependent upon the Chinese. Either way, China's growth slowdown which is likely to continue amid speculation of prolonged trade war and tariffs will continue to put downward pressure on this pair. Never forget, you can trade the trend until its no longer a trend. Right now, we're still knee deep in bear signals. If you like this analysis you can check out more of my work here www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Short
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Post-Fed, the Only Winner is TrumpThe Fed surprised many yesterday by assuming a more-dovish-than-expected stance, effectively removing the possibility of a rate hike in 2019, but allowing for some rate increases in 2020. The Fed suggested that there is no longer a need to move rates to a restrictive level after downgrading their forecasts for US growth, unemployment and inflation. The Fed’s decision was justified given the dynamic nature of monetary policy. At the moment, the economy is trying to adjust itself to the shock caused by the trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which we had commented about being the major worry of the US economy last October. As long as this adjustment period is going on, monetary policy cannot hurdle growth and thus the pause was more than justified, based on the prevailing market conditions. The Trump administration, through the imposition of tariffs, indirectly arm-twisted the Fed to pause its rate hike plan, while still respective the Fed’s independence by not directly intervening in the interest setting process. The expected short-run negative effect on the economy from the tariffs pushed the Central Bank away from its normalization policy, given that the Fed is bound to react to changes in the macroeconomic environment. Maintaining interest rate stability is something that the Trump administration was fully backing, eager to maintain low borrowing costs so as to fund the growing US government debt. Given that the excess spending has to be somehow detained, President Trump tweeted, soon after the Fed announcement, that his administration is considering maintaining the China tariffs for a “substantial period”. Tariffs appear to be working the way the Trump administration more or less imagined: custom duties nearly doubled in 2018Q4 compared to 2017Q4, increasing by roughly $33 billion. Tariffs, despite the negative effect they can have on the local economy given the upwards price pressure they place on the market, were well-placed on China, if the aim was to generate income. Given that the US accounts for about 19.2% of total Chinese exports, it could be enough to grant them with monopsony power. Widely accepted by economic textbooks, monopsony power allows a country to gain enough from the exporters’ absorbance of the tariff into their prices in order not to lose much market share. Thus, the pledge that “foreigners will pay” appears not to have been so misplaced after all. Furthermore, tariffs would also be good for US companies manufacturing the same goods as the Chinese ones targeted. Even though the extra revenue is important, it is still not enough to cover the extra $44 billion in interest that the US government had to pay during 2018. However, given that interest rates are expected to remain stable during the year, as per the Fed communication, there is no question that the only change in US interest payments is expected to come from additions to the already huge US government debt, standing at $21.5 trillion dollars, based on the latest available data. All of the above could easily work as a re-election tool for Donald Trump: the economy is growing, he effectively stopped the Fed from raising interest rates as a result of the tariffs imposed by his administration, something which would also push the economy higher or at least lower the impact from the trade tariffs and grant him more bargaining power in the China talks, he cut taxes, government spending increased, and he will likely claim that he made foreigners pay for a majority of all these things, through tariffs. Like him or not, it seems like Trump got what he wanted, even though the trade war policy cannot be sustained in the long run. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
Former Resistance as Support? Now that we are above resistance, are we now about to conceptualization previous resistance as support? It's hard to say given the crazy amount of volatility around Brexit which will be coming if Parliament fails to pass legislation, or if US-China trade war is still on which is trending back in that direction, or if the Fed realizes that they want to actually cut rates towards the end of 2019 given the speed in which they transformed from hawks to doves. Long story short-->price levels to me are still uncomfortably high. I don't think the sky will fall tomorrow, but I'm keeping a close eye on the aforementioned global themes which move markets the most. If you find this analysis helpful, then please look at the rest of my work at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
CHFJPY Confined in A Weekly wedge. Awaits breakout Momentum!The blue lines represents the support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts. If the price breakouts of the triangle in either direction the support or resistance levels next to them needs to be broken decisively in order for the technical aspects to be in our favour of the trade. shall there be any updates i will post them in a new thread. this just represents my outlook and analysis on this pair. if the technical aspects of this trade meets, i will post the entry and exit details in a new thread. cheers
by FX618Analysis
AUDJPY Looking To HIT 81.000 Level If the Range Breaks!AUDJPY is currently range trading that is visible by looking at the 4hr and daily timeframes. Looking at the main chart it can be seen that the price is confined in between the blue lines (range). Shall a breakout of the range occur to the upside, the price will look to target the 81.000 area where the weekly EMA 50 is present. Have a look at the snapshot of the weekly charts below: From the chart above, the price is confined in a descending channel and is currently en-route to testing the dynamic EMA 50. Furthermore, the 78.000 psychological level is a concrete support drawn from the monthly charts which has been rejected on too many occasions notably most recently on the monthly candle and the flash crash that happened last month. A LONG position is favored only if the range breaks to the upside, in other words the daily candle and NOT the 4hr Candle must close outside of the range on the daily charts . Followed by a slight retracement before we could execute a LONG entry. In the future if the price decisively closes above the weekly 50 EMA we could take this pair LONG towards the descending trendline of the main weekly channel. RISK ON appetite in the market would make AUD more valuable in comparison to safehaven yen which tends be sold off more together with GOLD AND CHF, therefore if a trade deal is made which is a likely scenario we can expect the AUD to rally against the YEN. This just represents my analysis for this pair, shall the opportunity arise i will post the entry criteria in a new thread. stay tuned and cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
Trade War Alleviation Gives Much Evidence for UpsideVolatility is decreasing as the trend upwards slows down. I think there is large potential to the upside as the US-China trade war comes to a detente. However, many resistance levels remain in the way before that can happen. On the other hand, the index quite easily blew past previous levels of resistance with no problems. Want to see more talk towards trade war resolution before I'll be bullish. More words on the matter here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
S
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
EURUSD - POTENTIAL LONG TERM BEARISH TRADE IDEAHi traders, The EURUSD is retesting a broken ascending channel that lined up with 61.8 Fib ratio and moving averages. . This pair seems to have completed a three-wave correction that unfolds as a double zigzag pattern after a text-book five-wave impulse in wave (i) "red." . If this count is correct, the 5-3 wave cycle is almost complete, and a bearish reversal for the start of wave (iii) of 3 down can be anticipated. . Considering that price has broken & retested the blue CTL, and we have bearish rejection candles on both daily & H4 chart, we have valid reasons to sell this pair. . What's your view on EURUSD? Let me know in the comment. Safe Trading! Veejahbee.
Short
by Veejahbee
GOLD Could FALL Before Reaching 1370 level Amid Risk ON AppetiteAs seen, GOLD is trapped in a range bound trading and is currently en route to the crucial resistance level of 1370. However the real question lies whether the GOLD momentum can continue towards this crucial resistance amid a possible and likely RISK ON appetite in the financial markets? Today FED chairman Powell speaks which could cause intense volatility in FX markets, however it seems the market has already priced in of what is to be expected of his speech today. Markets are already in a RISK ON appetite mode amid the resolution of trade war and tariffs being delayed by the president. What is Risk-On Risk-Off Risk-on risk-off is an investment setting in which price behavior responds to and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns. During periods when risk is perceived as low, the risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments; when risk is perceived to be high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments. SOURCE : www.investopedia.com With the current trade war already coming close to a resolution, RISK ON currencies in this scenario such as AUD, NZD and the EURO could appreciate whereas RISK OFF assets and currencies such as GOLD, CHF and JPY could depreciate. However keep in mind these safehavens are not evenly correlated. For instance JPY could fall if the market are on FULL RISK ON mode whereas CHF could fall slightly given its assets are backed by GOLD itself. On the Topic of GOLD, the yellow metal is precious and perceived by many as a good future investment given its rising longterm value! Therefore fundamentally it remains to be seen what the chairman of FED has to say today and if the US-SINO trade deal can be agreed soon and what are their terms behind the deal. Technically speaking GOLD is headed towards the crucial 1370 resistance level where it has bounced off on a numerous occasions. Currently the price is confined in a rising steep daily channel as shown on the main chart. Should anything drastic happen such as a trade deal being closed to agreed then GOLD may breakout of the channel and head towards the rising trendline beneath. On the flip side if the trade talks are slow, then we can expect GOLD to respect the channel and head towards the 1370 level. After reaching there it could be a possible scenario that it keeps climbing or reverses to the lows depending on the technical and fundamental picture at that time. It remains to be seen what happens. this is just my analysis and not a trade signal. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade signal in the new thread. cheers
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by FX618Analysis
EURAUD Likely To Test 1.55 level Amid Risk ON Appetite!With the potential Trade deal getting even closer among the worlds two largest economy and trump delaying the tariffs, The Australian Dollar may appreciate but NOT too much. In the analysis below i explained why the AUD is in for some benefit but DO NOT expect it rally should the trade deal be made! Same goes Fundamental analysis goes for the EURAUD however in this case shall the trade deal be made the EUR would likely be appreciating but not as compared to the AUD. this week kicks off with busy schedule today with FED chairman about to comment on the monetary policy and the impact the trade war is having on the economy. Have a read at the article below: Daily FX Market Roundup February 25, 2019 Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management. We are starting this busy trading week with solid gains in equities and currencies. Thanks to President Trump who officially delayed the next round of tariffs, all of the major currency pairs are trading higher led by gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. While the president hinted at this outcome last week, investors were relieved that his views did not change before an official announcement was made. Of course, the decision to extend the deadline was an easy one because it creates good will without a real commitment. Still, investors liked that it was open ended and that the truce will last until the summit between President Trump and President Xi next month. Assuming that both sides continue to make progress, Trump says they will be planning for a Summit at Mar-a-Lago to conclude an agreement. Speculation has now shifted from an extension to a conclusion of the trade war. Memorandums of understanding are being drafted in 6 key areas that include cyber theft, intellectual property, currency and non-tariff barriers. While there will be legs to this rally, it's important to understand that a final trade agreement could take many forms. The US could promise to keep tariffs where they are (with no further increases) and review them in a few months/years or they could abolish them completely. There’s also the possibility that a deal “might not happen at all” according to Trump but he’s motivated to get it done. Fed Chairman Powell is headed to Capitol Hill Tuesday to testify before Congress. His prepared comments on the economy and monetary policy will be released at 9:45AM NY/14:45 GMT and they should drive EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD higher. If the trade deal gives Powell a new sense of optimism, risk appetite will improve, lifting high-beta currencies. If he remain cautious, stresses the need for patience, talks about the downside risks to growth and the possibility of fewer rate hikes, the US dollar will fall, which should still be positive for EUR, AUD and NZD. USD/JPY on the other hand will rise on optimism and fall on pessimism. EUR/USD ended the day at its highest level in more than 2 weeks but it remains firmly within its recent range. A move above 1.1390 is needed for the upside breakout to be real. Sterling extended its gains above 1.31 versus the U.S. dollar after Prime Minister May delayed the “meaningful vote” to March 12, two weeks before they are scheduled to leave the European Union. This decision should have been negative for the currency but investors believe that by running down the clock, May leaves Parliament with no choice but to take over the Brexit process. She’ll have to request an extension of Article 50 or risk being shut out of negotiations. There’s talk that the European Commission could consider a 2-year delay and the Labour party is moving toward supporting a second referendum. Both choices are better than the current course, which is what investors are banking on. The Canadian dollar was the only major currency that failed to benefit from the risk rally and oil prices are to blame. Crude tumbled more than 3% after a tweet from President Trump that simply said “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike – fragile!” While there was no specific threat, investors feared that the president, who hasn’t tweeted about oil since December, is returning to his criticism of the alliance. It is also a nudge to Saudi Arabia who previously raised output on the back of pressure from the Trump Administration *************************************************** END OF ARTICLE **************************************************************************************************** SOURCE: www.investing.com With FED chairman speaking this week, the USD is in for a shakeout which inturn would affect other currencies specifically speaking about AUD, JPY, NZD and EURO. On a technical perspective of this trade analysis, the price on the daily TF is forming a rough head and shoulders pattern and the neckline is just seem to be present above the weekly 50 EMA. Shall the neckline break it would also be favorable the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA in the process with convincing fashion. The next support based on the Monthly charts lies at the 1.55 crucial level where the price is expected to be headed! Based on all the fundamental analysis and technical ones shall the criteria meet i will likely wait for the neckline to break and retest before making any suitable entry. However we are also keeping an eye out for the AUDUSD pair as these two are kind of correlated which makes executing two trades a risky scenario. Whichever pair gives the best outcome i will possibly take either one of these AUD related pair trade! This just represents my analysis on this pair, shall there be a suitable trade criteria i will post them in a new thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
SINO-US TRADE DEAL COULD MAKE AUSSIE REACH 0.73000 LEVEL!With Tariffs delayed which were suppose to come into effect on 1st march and renewed optimism that a trade deal could be reached soon between the world two largest economy, Aussie could be in for a benefit! China usually imports many of its raw material from Australia and if a trade deal can be reached soon (which is a likely scenario) aussie dollar could make a jump towards the crucial 0.73000 level where weekly 50 EMA is present. As of right now the AUD has started the week on strong positive note gaining more than 0.64% of its value since Trump announced that the tariffs that were suppose to come into effect would be delayed and he also signaled that a trade deal would be achieved soon. If a deal is achieved, Chinese economy will slowly start to pick up pace again and thereby taking the AUD higher against the USD and other currencies. However do NOT be fooled thinking that this may make the AUD rally! The AUD faces a lot of resistance on its path to uptrend not only technically but fundamentally too. On a fundamental aspect even though a trade deal could be struck soon, other factors are not in the AUD favor such as the RBA cutting its forecast on the rates and a chinese region banning coal imports from Australia, even certain economic indicators are showing results below the forecast. Taking all this fundamental aspects into consideration, the AUD will likely not make a big move to the upside but a rather short one and after that it remains to be seen what will happen to this pair. Overall market sentiment are bearish on both AUD and NZD dollars! Now coming to the technical aspect on this pair, the daily chart shows a descending trendline being respected on numerous occasions, a sustained break above this trendline would mean the price will likely target the 0.73000 level where the weekly 50 EMA is present. So for now its best to wait for the price to break the trendline and retest certain levels before we can make our move! 0.70000 level is a crucial support if viewed on the monthly charts and since the flash crash happened that day numerous support levels were tested and rejected, projecting that the AUD buyers are present at those levels. For now if the trendline is broken then we will wait for it to break convincingly and retrace slightly so we can make a move. shall there be any updates i would provide them in a new thread. this post just represents My personal outlook on this current pair. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
1
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Showing Signs of Exhaustion! With the crucial 97.00 area rejected and acting as a concrete resistance, DXY is showing signs of exhaustion both technically and fundamentally! Looking at the fundamental picture, the FED has already signaled that its pausing its rate hike, moreover the trade war among the two largest economies in the world is just putting to much pressure on the greenback. FED signaled the economy is stable however the signs of slight economic slowdown are already visible with china imposing high tariffs on US goods. Today's core durable order and Philadelphia manufacturing index both came below expectations and as we wait for the existing home sales report later today it would not be a surprise if the reading is below expectation. Even considering the future economic calendar releases most of the readings will likely be below the forecast as well considering if a trade deal has not been reached. In short at the moment its not looking that good for the greenback at the moment fundamentally! Looking at the technical aspects, the crucial 97.000 level was the key resistance that was rejected and now if the trendline is violated the price might head towards the next support that lies in the 93.00 region. If the trendline is violated we should be prepared for a big drop in the DXY. Certain pairs that are highly correlated with the DXY such as EURUSD can be traded with added confluence.
TVC:DXYShort
by FX618Analysis
1
USDNOK BULLISH TRADE IDEAHi Traders, The USDNOK reversed from a weekly support level and broke out of descending trendline and resistance level. . Price seems to be making an ABC zigzag corrective pattern which is likely to attract buyers at the 38.2 Fib ratio that lined up with swing level and moving averages. . We will wait for the completion of the corrective structure and then look for buy entry once the price breaks the blue CTL. . According to Elliot Wave principle, when wave (i) is extended, wave (iii) through to (v) is often 61.8 - 78.6% relative to the size of wave (i). So the price has the potential to move up towards the 61.8 - 78.6 Fib Extension level that lined up with a key resistance as planned on the chart. . Thanks for reading! Veejahbee.
Long
by Veejahbee
EURGBP BEARISH TRADE SETUPHi Traders, The EURGBP reversed from a resistance level and broke below a key support level with an impulsive move labeled wave A "blue." . The price has completed a bearish ABC zigzag corrective pattern which retested the broken support that lined up with 38.2 - 50.0 Fib ratio and moving averages, labeled wave B "blue." . Considering that price has broken out of the blue CTL, and Friday's candle closed as a bearish engulfing bar at our area of interest, this setup has met our criteria for short order. . The price has the potential to move downward toward the 61.8 and 1.0 Fib Extension to complete the wave C of (Y) as planned on the chart. . I wish you all a fantastic start to the week. . Veejahbee.
Short
by Veejahbee
GBPJPY BULLISH CONTINUATION SETUPHi traders, The GBPJPY seems to have completed ABC zigzag corrective chart pattern, which could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. . GBPJPY bearish correction is probably a wave (iv) of a larger impulsive wave 1. Considering that the price has breaks above the blue CTL after rejecting a swing level that lined up with moving averages and 38.2 Fib ratio; we have a valid reason to buy this pair. . Price has the potential to move higher and complete impulsive wave (v) "blue." The main target is -27.0 FE that lined up with descending channel resistance as projected on the chart. . Thanks for reading!
Long
by Veejahbee
USDCHF looking to Break High Or Low. All eyes on Trade Talks!As the trade talks begin today among the two largest economies in the world, this pair is looking at the outcome carefully. Any decision either good or bad can make this pair trade sharply. The Franc and JPY Often act as safe haven FX pairs when traders apply the risk aversion effect. GOLD also acts as a safe haven commodity too, but since switzerland's FRANC is backed by more than 75% of GOLD reserves its no surprise that FRANC acts as a stable currency. Looking at the current chart of this pair the price seems to be rangebound in a weekly timeframe. the current price action seems to be forming an ascending trendline, furthermore as we head up a crucial resistance of 1.00500 can be found and should the pair break the resistance we can opt to go LONG and should it break the trendline we can opt to go SHORT. I feel the outcome of any of the above scenarios is purely based on the trade talks but i feel more confident in taking this pair SHORT as it would be backed by the claims that the FED will likely not meet the rate raising target this year. Nevertheless, this a swing trade opportunity that i am watching closely and shall there be any developments i will be posting the update under this thread. I will also be looking to day trade this pair but i will need the trade talks to settle down and give clear direction as to where this pair is headed. be mindful that this week we also have the FED minute meeting release which might hide some important clues
by FX618Analysis