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Tradewar

DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Showing Signs of Exhaustion! With the crucial 97.00 area rejected and acting as a concrete resistance, DXY is showing signs of exhaustion both technically and fundamentally! Looking at the fundamental picture, the FED has already signaled that its pausing its rate hike, moreover the trade war among the two largest economies in the world is just putting to much pressure on the greenback. FED signaled the economy is stable however the signs of slight economic slowdown are already visible with china imposing high tariffs on US goods. Today's core durable order and Philadelphia manufacturing index both came below expectations and as we wait for the existing home sales report later today it would not be a surprise if the reading is below expectation. Even considering the future economic calendar releases most of the readings will likely be below the forecast as well considering if a trade deal has not been reached. In short at the moment its not looking that good for the greenback at the moment fundamentally! Looking at the technical aspects, the crucial 97.000 level was the key resistance that was rejected and now if the trendline is violated the price might head towards the next support that lies in the 93.00 region. If the trendline is violated we should be prepared for a big drop in the DXY. Certain pairs that are highly correlated with the DXY such as EURUSD can be traded with added confluence.
TVC:DXYShort
by FX618Analysis
1
USDNOK BULLISH TRADE IDEAHi Traders, The USDNOK reversed from a weekly support level and broke out of descending trendline and resistance level. . Price seems to be making an ABC zigzag corrective pattern which is likely to attract buyers at the 38.2 Fib ratio that lined up with swing level and moving averages. . We will wait for the completion of the corrective structure and then look for buy entry once the price breaks the blue CTL. . According to Elliot Wave principle, when wave (i) is extended, wave (iii) through to (v) is often 61.8 - 78.6% relative to the size of wave (i). So the price has the potential to move up towards the 61.8 - 78.6 Fib Extension level that lined up with a key resistance as planned on the chart. . Thanks for reading! Veejahbee.
Long
by Veejahbee
EURGBP BEARISH TRADE SETUPHi Traders, The EURGBP reversed from a resistance level and broke below a key support level with an impulsive move labeled wave A "blue." . The price has completed a bearish ABC zigzag corrective pattern which retested the broken support that lined up with 38.2 - 50.0 Fib ratio and moving averages, labeled wave B "blue." . Considering that price has broken out of the blue CTL, and Friday's candle closed as a bearish engulfing bar at our area of interest, this setup has met our criteria for short order. . The price has the potential to move downward toward the 61.8 and 1.0 Fib Extension to complete the wave C of (Y) as planned on the chart. . I wish you all a fantastic start to the week. . Veejahbee.
Short
by Veejahbee
GBPJPY BULLISH CONTINUATION SETUPHi traders, The GBPJPY seems to have completed ABC zigzag corrective chart pattern, which could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. . GBPJPY bearish correction is probably a wave (iv) of a larger impulsive wave 1. Considering that the price has breaks above the blue CTL after rejecting a swing level that lined up with moving averages and 38.2 Fib ratio; we have a valid reason to buy this pair. . Price has the potential to move higher and complete impulsive wave (v) "blue." The main target is -27.0 FE that lined up with descending channel resistance as projected on the chart. . Thanks for reading!
Long
by Veejahbee
USDCHF looking to Break High Or Low. All eyes on Trade Talks!As the trade talks begin today among the two largest economies in the world, this pair is looking at the outcome carefully. Any decision either good or bad can make this pair trade sharply. The Franc and JPY Often act as safe haven FX pairs when traders apply the risk aversion effect. GOLD also acts as a safe haven commodity too, but since switzerland's FRANC is backed by more than 75% of GOLD reserves its no surprise that FRANC acts as a stable currency. Looking at the current chart of this pair the price seems to be rangebound in a weekly timeframe. the current price action seems to be forming an ascending trendline, furthermore as we head up a crucial resistance of 1.00500 can be found and should the pair break the resistance we can opt to go LONG and should it break the trendline we can opt to go SHORT. I feel the outcome of any of the above scenarios is purely based on the trade talks but i feel more confident in taking this pair SHORT as it would be backed by the claims that the FED will likely not meet the rate raising target this year. Nevertheless, this a swing trade opportunity that i am watching closely and shall there be any developments i will be posting the update under this thread. I will also be looking to day trade this pair but i will need the trade talks to settle down and give clear direction as to where this pair is headed. be mindful that this week we also have the FED minute meeting release which might hide some important clues
by FX618Analysis
MSFT: Bear Market Risk Increases on Chinese Manufacturing NewsMicrosoft has been under heavy distribution and has begun a risk of top formation. The markets opened with a downside gap this morning due to Chinese markets imploding. This is a high risk factor for a potential bear market catalyst. Any US company that has a high revenue source from China is at risk of serious downside runs during such a crisis and for as long as the Trade Wars between these two nations continue. Sell Shorters will use this gap at open as a level to buy to cover for profits. IF the retail crowd does panic quickly, then it will be a rout. For now MSFT is at risk of breaking to the downside. The Top formation is a Rounding Top, which is harder for most technical traders to recognize before completion. The support is strong between $86 – 98, which was a trading range from earlier this year. The stronger volume on down weeks and declining Accumulation/Distribution indicator show heavy large-lot selling over the past couple of months. The stock’s bounce risk levels are black lines on this weekly chart.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
SP500 at tipping pointThere's been a lot of FUD going on in the market lately. Multiple days of several hundred point drops will do that. Ignore the FUD, and read the tea leaves. Here's what the charts say to me: SP500 remains in the bull wave channel which began nearly 10 years ago in March 2009. As long as the price remains in this channel, the bull market continues. Red line is long term support. Blue is long term resistance. Failure of the red support is bad. If 2940 is in fact the market high, then 2460 is the first short target and will likely be the first domino all the way down to 1580 -- perhaps even 1140-1200 if we retrace in a similar fashion to 2008/2009. Right now, I think the price is more likely to go back up than down, but should the red line fail, GTFO.
AMEX:SPYLong
by jdharward
4
NZD/JPY BREAK OUT BUYThis is an Idea is speculating on the continuing uptrend of the Kiwi dollar. NZD/JPY has completed a head and shoulders pattern and possibly has now has enough steam to break out. Trump Meeting with Xi is good for the NZD as its progress with the US-CHINA trade war, but it will not provide real improvements. So this is speculating on the volatility of the meeting but in the end the meeting not providing any real improvements thus equities continue to sell of after fake rallies.
by SnipingRabbit
ASX200 Sell Off. We are drifting upwards on Trump- Xi talks although we are still bouncing between Fibonacci shorts. What will happen if Trump and Xi do not have a good talk and reach no agreement? We will see another sharp sell off. Trumps angry tweets when he gets back to his hotel room will propel that. According to my analysis we are in the midst of another 10% sell off (from where my forecast start) We touched that level and I think we will see another complete 10% sell off with a big wick. Do not buy Indices yet only look to short them. China is stubborn and they will take there time to address this matter, they investment optimism in Africa and they are looking to move away from the USA. Major US companies are not doing well and are still have many present problems (Apple, Facebook)
ASX:XJOShort
by SnipingRabbit
US Midterms and trade war to drive AUDUSD to our buy limitTrade set up: We have seen a ‘shooting star’ candle printed on Friday’s daily chart, depicting a potential short-term bearish move in the pair. However, buying the AUDUSD after a retracement into 0.7165 is still our preferred strategy. Given the importance of a three standard deviation move on Friday, our bullish trade is still in play ahead of US Midterm elections. Why we like it: We can look at a simple regression model drawn from the January high, and if we take the view that this trend is set to continue, then it heightens the risk of a move into 0.7165, although we could also see 0.7140 (one-standard deviation from the line of best fit) come into play. We had been anticipating USD weakness ahead of the US Midterm elections driven primarily by profit-taking and covering long positions. However, this view may reverse somewhat with Asian equity markets getting sold off fairly aggressively today, thanks largely to comments from Larry Kudlow that a trade deal is seemingly still a big hurdle and this will only accelerate the move into the 0.7165/40 area. There is plenty of event risk this week to contend with, so it’s worth focusing on AUDUSD one-week volatility and applying this to get the weekly ATM (At The Money) straddle. Here, we see the market priced for an 85-pip move in either direction, so our view is to place stops after entry below Fridays low of 0.7072. Disclaimer. Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
Long
by Pepperstone
SPX - 50W Moving Average in PerilWhats up Traders - As always, the explanation is on the chart. Just some food for thought and concern. I am NOT the only one talking about this by a long shot. Keeping an eye on things, and like most seasoned traders, We are trading with extreme caution right now - - Macro Headwinds - - China - Trade-war / Tariffs November Election / Midterms Saudi Arabia Political Nonsense FED Interest Rates Flattening Yield curve Earnings Season - Seeing reduced outlooks by companies reporting so far. End of the Year Profit Taking Season I dont like it.
SP:SPX
by WillNixTrading