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Tradewar

Just a Correction? Don't follow the HerdThis is an Update on my previous analysis this time I updated the H&S pattern to the correct drop target, with a few more indicators. And adjusted the drops to match similar time frames to the 08 crash. "The Economy Moves Up like a stair but it Drops like an Elevator"- Phil Town OVER EXTENDED & PEOPLE ARE SPREADING FOMO After a +9 year Bull run, the market is going strong. Everyone is buying and everything is going great, Weed stocks are going to make me rich! Weed stocks like NASDAQ:TLRY are going parabolic! Well until the last few days it isn't... We've seen and heard stuff like "Its just a correction." "Buy the dip." " Great time to Buy more." "Dollar Cost Average" etc. Well I'm here to say otherwise! SMART MONEY IS GETTING OUT If you've been following Warren Buffet , Ray Dalio and even Mark Cuban and all the other big Financial Investors/Smart Money you probably heard they have been pulling out of the stock market in Spring and are stockpiling cash. The problem is we are nearing the very end of the bull cycle and we are overdue on a Recession. ECONOMIC IMPACTS I love being a bull as much as the next guy especially since I have an online business but this growth is unsustainable with company share buy backs this October's Blackout is just the tip of the iceberg, the housing market slowing down due to climbing mortgage rates places like Texas and California are having a tough time selling Houses, Fed raising rates, weed stocks outpacing their true value, the Trade War Tensions between China and US. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF/ MARKET CYCLES The main causes of the Great Depression and Great Recession lie in the actions of the federal government. In the case of the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve, after keeping interest rates artificially low in the 1920s, raised interest rates in 1929 to halt the resulting boom. That helped choke off investment. Also, President Hoover signed into law the sky-high Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which stifled trade and damaged American exports throughout the 1930s. Finally, the President signed a large tax increase into law in 1932, which halted entrepreneurship. READ MORE: fee.org Everything there sounds very similar to whats going on except for the tax increases, we got tax cuts instead, phew. If you don't believe me, Educating yourself from one of the best economists/hedge fund managers Ray Dalio on the BOOM & BUST Cycles :
AMEX:SPYShort
by Malfury
1
CADJPY Story Intraday (refer to top left chart), price almost touching the weekly range. When that happens, I am biased on a retracement. Mid-term (refer to H4 and D1 chart), price have touched the Monthly projection and tested 87.000 price which was rejected mid May 2018. Plenty of trading plan can be produced from this. Bearish Engulfing Candle on H4 and/or H1 would warrant me to short the pair between Frankfurt open until London Close. A bearish moving average crossover on the 30-min chart during London-US session overlap until London close, would warrant me a scalping trade as well. Anything bullish today, I will observe and re-evaluate. Commodity-backed currencies (Canadian Loonie is one of them) have been well supported after market risk tone shift inspite of the Chine Tariffs was slapped but there was "good news" on the North Korean Nuclear plan issue as well. I am anticipating the market to sell this (fully priced in) eventually and that means dumping commodity currencies. The range projection for this pair is : Monthly = 320 pips Weekly = 160-170 pips Daily = 70-75 pips
Short
by sufiansaid
FED Rate Hike Expectations Likely To Decide The Fate Of USDJPY!Talk about the safe haven FX pairs. The JPY, CHF & GOLD have long been carrying these characteristics. Here we focus on the JPY & the USDJPY pair. Recently everything in the market is being USD driven! and looking at this pair, it has been so much vulnerable to the fundamental factors affecting the USD such as the ongoing trade war and the FED rate hike proposals. In my opinion the technical analysis at this stage of the market can only be done when the fundamental factors start to clear up. JPY has long been regraded as a SAFE HAVEN asset, however with recent tensions in the world, the largest reserve currency (USD) has been gaining its own reputation as the safe haven pair as investors see the world's largest economy doing well. So with that said, since the economy is doing so well the FED are expected to hike rates 2 more times this year and if they hike the rate as expected (although the market have already priced in the 4 hikes) the USD is still expected to get much stronger. This will in turn lead to the appreciation of the USD against basket of all major currencies!. NOW COMING TO THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THIS PAIR Looking at the main weekly chart here, it can be seen the long term wedge was violated and retested!. the pair is showing signs of trending upwards however a crucial monthly resistance seems to be blocking this from happening (112.000 level). For this pair to trend upwards the monthly candle needs to close above the 112.000 level and then only then we can decide to go LONG on this pair!. Trading directly into the resistance might be a very risky choice and its not recommended at all On the flip side, to confirm the price has indeed rejected the 112.00 level, the wedge developing on the weekly charts needs to break and retested in order to take this pair SHORT To add to the confluence to the downside, the daily chart is showing a strong channel developing and the break and retest of the channel would confirm the pair is headed down. In short, the pairs direction is in the hands of the FED and other minor fundamental factors. Depending on the fundamental outcome either one of the scenarios is likely to take place and make this pair to trend again. thank you for your support, please follow me if you like my analysis. if there are any signals pertaining to this thread i will update in the near future but patience is required here
by FX618Analysis
USDCAD Trading PlanThe fundamentals that move the Canadian Dollar the past week or so were the updates on the NAFTA deal. If a deal struck, Canadian will definitely strengthen. However, the Commodity Market is an important catalyst as well specifically Oil. US-China Trade war somewhat affecting market sentiment and the energy market is no different. The market sentiment at the moment is fragile. Having said that though, technically we have setups and if the market players decided to dump their CAD longs that I would hope will be illustrated in the chart as a bullish engulfing candle, then I will be a CAD Bull. Should there be an update of the NAFTA deal specifically hinting or confirming a NAFTA deal will be struck, I will short the pair and target according to the daily range.
by sufiansaid
US 30 in Complex ABC Correction WaveThis is a complex ABC correction coming off the August highs. Did not quite get to the Gartley Fibo at 26268, but within 100 pts of it for Fibo 1.55 will have to do. There is a clear corrective 5 wave impulse evident in the A down leg, which is an organized, complex actionary impulse (labeled 1-2-3-4-5). This is not like the WXY pattern we saw in early August, it's true corrective trend actionary impulse and will likely carry index to significantly lower levels. This represents early technical breakdown. We are near the end of countertrend reactionary B wave, which challenged Fibo 0.786 and then again came up to 0.618 before falling back. This is a bull trap reaction wave. Most recently, thanks to the Donald, a third rally attempt Friday to reclaim the highs was crushed. Thanks be to Trumptweets! Given the constant tweeting, ongoing trade uncertainty and most importantly, cash outflows from mutual funds as parents return from vacation and withdraw assets to pay for prep schools and new cars for their college kids, it seems unlikely the markets will rally high enough to challenge the August low-volume highs. It's no secret; people take their money out of the markets in September because they want to spend it. Real simple- seasonality. And what better time to cash out than at the alltime high?! 'A' wave carried Dow -362; B retraced 224 pts at Fibo 0.618; C will be rough, at least as deep as A length, quite possibly 1.618xA = -586, as low as index 25,335 (target zone). Look for a weak rally attempt early in the week of 10 Sep; before tweet Friday a rally was starting up and it is likely the bulls will try again once more. Look for H&S and ascending wedges as the market struggles to regain higher price levels to enter shorts. Short entry above 26000 will likely be profitable. As always, I post these opinions purely for speculative amusement and education, this does not in any way constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk! Good luck!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
2
S&P PlaytimeS&P has retraced from all-time high back to breakout. Current options position is (slightly) net short but approaching 0 deltas and considering going net long with some shorter dated end of month calls. Also short on UVXY just in case we chop around for a while. Lots of potentially juicy decisions and policies to look out for right now: -US-China tradewar updates (200 billion or nah) -US Federal Interest rate decision end of September (postponement of hikes could indicate fed worry over trade war's negative effect on US economy) -NAFTA negotiation result eh
SP:SPX
by TradePod
NZD Battered by Strong USD, Trade ConcernsNZDUSD has extended its losses for the sixth day in a row, touching key levels in the 0.65’s. A strong US dollar and US/China trade concerns have both spilled over into NZD. There are many bearish signs, and if we break through the 0.65’s, there is a vacuum zone to the 0.62’s, which we haven’t seen since 2015. At the time of this writing, NZDUSD was trading at 0.6549. Levels from above will provide resistance, including: 0.6727 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods 0.6851 from highs and lows over the past 30 periods 0.7061 from highs and lows Levels from below will provide support, including: 0.6547 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods As for Technical Analysis we have the following. Volatility has narrowed a bit but may continue more before a breakout. The RSI indicator suggests that we are in a bear trend, but not oversold yet. The MACD is above the signal line, but not by too much, suggesting that we are in a bull trend which may continue. NZDUSD is below the 50 period SMA, indicating a bear trend. The ADX indicator suggests a bear trend, at 30. We have some room until we reach lower bound of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 0.6535. We are likely to find resistance at the central moving average of the KRI at 0.6659. Daily Scores: Bull Score: 1 Bear Score: 3 Ranging Score: 0 NZDUSD intraday seems to be ranging, clinging on for dear life at the immediate moment after taking a beating the past couple days. Levels from above include: 0.6562 from gaps 0.6592 from sma 50 0.6650 from gaps 0.6702 from gaps 0.6721 from highs and lows over the past 100 periods Levels from below include: 0.6542 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods Technical analysis for NZDUSD intraday is as follows. Volatility has consolidated slightly. The RSI indicator suggests that we are in a bear trend, but not oversold yet. The MACD suggests that we are in a bullish phase but not overbought yet. NZDUSD intraday is under the 50 period SMA, which is currently at 0.6592, indicating bearishness. Additionally, NZDUSD intraday is below the 100 period SMA, which indicates a bear trend, but not oversold yet. Finally, the 50 period SMA is about on par with the 100 period SMA which suggests we are ranging. The ADX indicator, at a value of 37 observes a modest bear trend. We are below the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 0.6571, and fairly close to it. If we lose momentum, we'll have support from the lower bound of the KRI at 0.6524. Intraday Scores: Bull Score: 1 Bear Score: 4 Ranging Score: 1
Short
by quantguy