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Tradewar

USDCHF looking to Break High Or Low. All eyes on Trade Talks!As the trade talks begin today among the two largest economies in the world, this pair is looking at the outcome carefully. Any decision either good or bad can make this pair trade sharply. The Franc and JPY Often act as safe haven FX pairs when traders apply the risk aversion effect. GOLD also acts as a safe haven commodity too, but since switzerland's FRANC is backed by more than 75% of GOLD reserves its no surprise that FRANC acts as a stable currency. Looking at the current chart of this pair the price seems to be rangebound in a weekly timeframe. the current price action seems to be forming an ascending trendline, furthermore as we head up a crucial resistance of 1.00500 can be found and should the pair break the resistance we can opt to go LONG and should it break the trendline we can opt to go SHORT. I feel the outcome of any of the above scenarios is purely based on the trade talks but i feel more confident in taking this pair SHORT as it would be backed by the claims that the FED will likely not meet the rate raising target this year. Nevertheless, this a swing trade opportunity that i am watching closely and shall there be any developments i will be posting the update under this thread. I will also be looking to day trade this pair but i will need the trade talks to settle down and give clear direction as to where this pair is headed. be mindful that this week we also have the FED minute meeting release which might hide some important clues
by FX618Analysis
MSFT: Bear Market Risk Increases on Chinese Manufacturing NewsMicrosoft has been under heavy distribution and has begun a risk of top formation. The markets opened with a downside gap this morning due to Chinese markets imploding. This is a high risk factor for a potential bear market catalyst. Any US company that has a high revenue source from China is at risk of serious downside runs during such a crisis and for as long as the Trade Wars between these two nations continue. Sell Shorters will use this gap at open as a level to buy to cover for profits. IF the retail crowd does panic quickly, then it will be a rout. For now MSFT is at risk of breaking to the downside. The Top formation is a Rounding Top, which is harder for most technical traders to recognize before completion. The support is strong between $86 – 98, which was a trading range from earlier this year. The stronger volume on down weeks and declining Accumulation/Distribution indicator show heavy large-lot selling over the past couple of months. The stock’s bounce risk levels are black lines on this weekly chart.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
SP500 at tipping pointThere's been a lot of FUD going on in the market lately. Multiple days of several hundred point drops will do that. Ignore the FUD, and read the tea leaves. Here's what the charts say to me: SP500 remains in the bull wave channel which began nearly 10 years ago in March 2009. As long as the price remains in this channel, the bull market continues. Red line is long term support. Blue is long term resistance. Failure of the red support is bad. If 2940 is in fact the market high, then 2460 is the first short target and will likely be the first domino all the way down to 1580 -- perhaps even 1140-1200 if we retrace in a similar fashion to 2008/2009. Right now, I think the price is more likely to go back up than down, but should the red line fail, GTFO.
AMEX:SPYLong
by jdharward
4
NZD/JPY BREAK OUT BUYThis is an Idea is speculating on the continuing uptrend of the Kiwi dollar. NZD/JPY has completed a head and shoulders pattern and possibly has now has enough steam to break out. Trump Meeting with Xi is good for the NZD as its progress with the US-CHINA trade war, but it will not provide real improvements. So this is speculating on the volatility of the meeting but in the end the meeting not providing any real improvements thus equities continue to sell of after fake rallies.
by SnipingRabbit
ASX200 Sell Off. We are drifting upwards on Trump- Xi talks although we are still bouncing between Fibonacci shorts. What will happen if Trump and Xi do not have a good talk and reach no agreement? We will see another sharp sell off. Trumps angry tweets when he gets back to his hotel room will propel that. According to my analysis we are in the midst of another 10% sell off (from where my forecast start) We touched that level and I think we will see another complete 10% sell off with a big wick. Do not buy Indices yet only look to short them. China is stubborn and they will take there time to address this matter, they investment optimism in Africa and they are looking to move away from the USA. Major US companies are not doing well and are still have many present problems (Apple, Facebook)
ASX:XJOShort
by SnipingRabbit
US Midterms and trade war to drive AUDUSD to our buy limitTrade set up: We have seen a ‘shooting star’ candle printed on Friday’s daily chart, depicting a potential short-term bearish move in the pair. However, buying the AUDUSD after a retracement into 0.7165 is still our preferred strategy. Given the importance of a three standard deviation move on Friday, our bullish trade is still in play ahead of US Midterm elections. Why we like it: We can look at a simple regression model drawn from the January high, and if we take the view that this trend is set to continue, then it heightens the risk of a move into 0.7165, although we could also see 0.7140 (one-standard deviation from the line of best fit) come into play. We had been anticipating USD weakness ahead of the US Midterm elections driven primarily by profit-taking and covering long positions. However, this view may reverse somewhat with Asian equity markets getting sold off fairly aggressively today, thanks largely to comments from Larry Kudlow that a trade deal is seemingly still a big hurdle and this will only accelerate the move into the 0.7165/40 area. There is plenty of event risk this week to contend with, so it’s worth focusing on AUDUSD one-week volatility and applying this to get the weekly ATM (At The Money) straddle. Here, we see the market priced for an 85-pip move in either direction, so our view is to place stops after entry below Fridays low of 0.7072. Disclaimer. Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
Long
by Pepperstone
SPX - 50W Moving Average in PerilWhats up Traders - As always, the explanation is on the chart. Just some food for thought and concern. I am NOT the only one talking about this by a long shot. Keeping an eye on things, and like most seasoned traders, We are trading with extreme caution right now - - Macro Headwinds - - China - Trade-war / Tariffs November Election / Midterms Saudi Arabia Political Nonsense FED Interest Rates Flattening Yield curve Earnings Season - Seeing reduced outlooks by companies reporting so far. End of the Year Profit Taking Season I dont like it.
SP:SPX
by WillNixTrading
Just a Correction? Don't follow the HerdThis is an Update on my previous analysis this time I updated the H&S pattern to the correct drop target, with a few more indicators. And adjusted the drops to match similar time frames to the 08 crash. "The Economy Moves Up like a stair but it Drops like an Elevator"- Phil Town OVER EXTENDED & PEOPLE ARE SPREADING FOMO After a +9 year Bull run, the market is going strong. Everyone is buying and everything is going great, Weed stocks are going to make me rich! Weed stocks like NASDAQ:TLRY are going parabolic! Well until the last few days it isn't... We've seen and heard stuff like "Its just a correction." "Buy the dip." " Great time to Buy more." "Dollar Cost Average" etc. Well I'm here to say otherwise! SMART MONEY IS GETTING OUT If you've been following Warren Buffet , Ray Dalio and even Mark Cuban and all the other big Financial Investors/Smart Money you probably heard they have been pulling out of the stock market in Spring and are stockpiling cash. The problem is we are nearing the very end of the bull cycle and we are overdue on a Recession. ECONOMIC IMPACTS I love being a bull as much as the next guy especially since I have an online business but this growth is unsustainable with company share buy backs this October's Blackout is just the tip of the iceberg, the housing market slowing down due to climbing mortgage rates places like Texas and California are having a tough time selling Houses, Fed raising rates, weed stocks outpacing their true value, the Trade War Tensions between China and US. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF/ MARKET CYCLES The main causes of the Great Depression and Great Recession lie in the actions of the federal government. In the case of the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve, after keeping interest rates artificially low in the 1920s, raised interest rates in 1929 to halt the resulting boom. That helped choke off investment. Also, President Hoover signed into law the sky-high Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which stifled trade and damaged American exports throughout the 1930s. Finally, the President signed a large tax increase into law in 1932, which halted entrepreneurship. READ MORE: fee.org Everything there sounds very similar to whats going on except for the tax increases, we got tax cuts instead, phew. If you don't believe me, Educating yourself from one of the best economists/hedge fund managers Ray Dalio on the BOOM & BUST Cycles :
AMEX:SPYShort
by Malfury
1