Resistances levels to watch in a new trade war day #miniSP500SP:SPX ES1! SP1!
ALL TALK? NO ACTION?
Supports levels had worked and futures ended in positive territory yesterday, after all many experts believe that these announcements of #TradeWar are a door to open negotiations or the real effects of these anouncements will take some time, but will see.. take a look of these points:
1) $spx SP:SPX Could broke out thru the falling triangle today.
2) All support becomes resistance, actual 20 EMA (2666) is the closest resistance level to observe.
3) Yesterday at the session end, futures indices closed in positive territory ES1! and still continue, careful to be too optimistic there are strongest resistance levels.
4) Volatility is 20 now but you know what happenned with bad news #Trump #Tariffs #TradeWar
5) Above the 20 EMA (2666 PINK), still remains 3 interesting resistances: 50 EMA, 100 EMA and the falling triangle which is strong (yellow).
It seems that everything is still announcement of actions, governments don't want a #TradeWar, there is a expectation for negotitions.
This is still a political situation, many of these announces are a pressure strategy to OPEN a negotiation or it can get worse or even stop, is a dynamic issue to review continuously.
Big picture=
Tradewar
The support levels to watch in a new trade war day #miniSP500SP:SPX SP1! ES1!
ALL TALK? NO ACTION?
Complex battle continues and still is not a clear direction, economies collapsing?... not yet, take a look of these points:
1) Actual 200 DMA of ES1! is 2590 (PINK).
2) All support becomes resistance, but actual 200 DMA (2590) had been crossed over many times.
3) Yesterday at the session end, futures indices closed in positive territory and after China & Usa announced new tariffs, futures indices have going down.
4) Below the actual 200 DMA (2590 PINK), still remains 2 interesting supports: April 1 low (2552) and February lows (2530) {PURPLE}.
5) Negative session, negative day maybe a negative week for almost all markets with all this goverment announces.
6) European indices down but does not fall with the strength of the American indices, futures remain negative and expecting to Bearish sentiment in American open.
7) High volatility and many bad news is not a good combination for a long terms trading, a day for intraday small trades, with many stop loss and limited orders.
8) At the end, everything is still ANNOUNCEMENT of actions, likewise all this is reversed if one of the 2 governments announces that they have opened negotiations ... so I would not be so confident to open short positions either.
[9) The real effects of these actions announced we will see in a month at least, especially because it can get worse or even stop, is a dynamic issue, review continuously.
10) This is still a political situation, many of these announces are a pressure strategy to OPEN a negotiation, at the end, goverments want the best for his own benefits.
War zone analisys: All is still not lost! 200 DMA ES1!SP:SPX ES1! SP1!
BE CAREFUL, IT'S NOT ALL BEARISH , STILL REMAINS BULLISH SENTIMENT, MIXED OPEN
Complex battle is coming and still is not a clear direction, take a look of these points:
1) Actual 200 DMA of ES1! is 2589 (PINK)
2) All support becomes resistance, in the last 12 hours ES1! had touched at least 2 times the 2589 support
3) Yesterday obviously all indexes with RED indicators, but at the close we had a interesting return and away of minimum of the session
4) Below the actual 200 DMA (2589 PINK) ES1! , still remains 2 interesting supports: yesterday low (2552) and february lows (2530) {PURPLE}
5) It was expected that yesterday at the time of breaking the 200 DMA ES1! , the indexes won't had a dramatic greater drop reaching levels of 2000 points in the SPX SP:SPX , this did not happen, on the contrary we closed with a return.
6) European indices down but does not fall with the strength of the American indices, futures remain positive for today's opening, so we expect a slightly flat day, given the uncertainty.
7)Today is expected a tough battle that will leave many losers, it is best to stay out of the American markets and opt for markets like the European that has found good support and not being a contender is not directly affected by the trade war between China and USA.
www.cnbc.com
BAD NEWS for 200 DMA of ES1!ES1!
After resisting several touches during the last month has been maintained and hold, but every time there are more doubts and uncertainty for the accumulation of negatives issues like Facebook, Trump, Amazon, Steel Tariff, China Tariff, Trade War, etc ... too many things in 3 months.
If what remains of 2018 continues like this will not take long to break.
All day once again the eyes of an entire economy put in that support 2589 , this is not the best way to invest ... European Markets open tomorrow an option to invest in the short term... GOOD TRADE
www.bloomberg.com
Trade War Affecting TeslaEvery day I drive by a car shipping port in Richmond, California. When I look by I see whole lots of Tesla's getting ready to be shipped to Asia. Tesla has a big market selling products to Asia and owning a Tesla in Asia is a big status symbol. Yes, the trade war is mostly FUD, but if trump does follow through with the tariffs, Tesla could get hit hard. With the selloff, the market is obviously worried, and they have a right to be. But i don't think the tariff will be enough to put Tesla under. we will really just have to wait and see. If this is FUD, I think we will get a rebound on previous price levels.
SHORT NZD/CAD NAFTA MS TRADECAD should outperform NZD over the coming weeks. Constructive NAFTA news suggests that the US may be getting closer to an acceptable agreement with its trading partners, which should lead to a continued re-pricing of the trade risk premium. Risks to a more dovish RBNZ continue, with the new Policy Targets Agreement likely to add a second employment mandate and potentially offer specific language on the currency. Data in NZ also remain uncompelling, including the business PMI and GDP. Positioning also favors the trade, with the market remaining long NZD while CAD sentiment is net bearish. A risk to the trade is a dovish shift from the BoC, leading to CAD weakness. - Morgan Stanley
AUSSIE STEEL TARIFFS & TRADE PROTECTIONISM AIMED AT CHINAWe recommend selling AUDCAD targeting 0.9914 (50-day moving average), with stop loss 1.0150 (above recent highs) for a total reward-to-risk ratio of 2:1.
As discussed in Asia Pacific: US tariffs: A minor setback for now, 2 March 2018, the steel tariffs reinforce our view of AUD underperformance on the basis of late-cycle domestic dynamics, and an expected moderation in Australia’s terms of trade . Any new announcement of wider tariffs on US imports from China will not bode well for the AUD, given the currency’s high sensitivity to China’s growth outlook.
On the other hand, the loonie has already incorporated trade policy risk premium and a partial unwind, given Canada’s exemption to the steel and aluminum tariffs, could support CAD this week.
This trade recommendation is valid from the Wellington open Monday to the New York close Friday.
-Barclays FX Research
Inflation and North Korea gittersPrice Action: Markets have consolidated for a month into a triangle after a long sustained rally. Expect continuation higher after what should be seen as a healthy market consolidation. Inflation fears drove the initial sell-off which was anything but healthy, but markets recovered and sank again on fear of tariffs and trade wars, lastly boosted by North Korea news this morning. Try to not get whipsawed by the news, focus on the price action which is showing us the markets have consolidated after a long sustained rally, expect it to continue higher after a breakout of the triangle formation.
Trade Wars are Bearish for USDJPYA clear break below $108 support level which now becomes resistance targets the $100 support level. The selloff in US Treasuries and trade wars are bearish for the USD, combined with the risk-off environment that the tariffs rhetoric sparks off points to a bearish tone for USDJPY.
CADUSD: Is this a bottom for the Canadian dollar?This level might be the bottom in this pair. Trump's tariff announcement might have created a negative enough sentiment to form a bottom here.
From Zerohedge: "Canadians have had a tough time of it recently: they are getting inundated with illegal immigrants (thanks to Trudeau's welcome) and not benefitting from the wholesale emigration north that so many liberals promised if Trump was elected; housing has become unaffordable due to Chinese hot money flows encouraged by the government; the Canadian energy industry is hosed because of US shale production-driven low prices; and now the US imposes trade tariffs on another of their biggest exports."
"The determination that Canada improperly subsidizes its exports is preliminary, and the Commerce Department will need to make a final decision. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission will need to find that the U.S. industry has suffered injury. But even a preliminary decision has immediate real-world consequences, by discouraging importers from buying lumber from Canada."
www.zerohedge.com
To me, as a contrarian, it sounds like a good opportunity, although the odds of the trade working are low, the payoff would be significant.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.