Get started

Tradewar

AUSSIE STEEL TARIFFS & TRADE PROTECTIONISM AIMED AT CHINAWe recommend selling AUDCAD targeting 0.9914 (50-day moving average), with stop loss 1.0150 (above recent highs) for a total reward-to-risk ratio of 2:1. As discussed in Asia Pacific: US tariffs: A minor setback for now, 2 March 2018, the steel tariffs reinforce our view of AUD underperformance on the basis of late-cycle domestic dynamics, and an expected moderation in Australia’s terms of trade . Any new announcement of wider tariffs on US imports from China will not bode well for the AUD, given the currency’s high sensitivity to China’s growth outlook. On the other hand, the loonie has already incorporated trade policy risk premium and a partial unwind, given Canada’s exemption to the steel and aluminum tariffs, could support CAD this week. This trade recommendation is valid from the Wellington open Monday to the New York close Friday. -Barclays FX Research
Short
by itzbert
1
Inflation and North Korea gittersPrice Action: Markets have consolidated for a month into a triangle after a long sustained rally. Expect continuation higher after what should be seen as a healthy market consolidation. Inflation fears drove the initial sell-off which was anything but healthy, but markets recovered and sank again on fear of tariffs and trade wars, lastly boosted by North Korea news this morning. Try to not get whipsawed by the news, focus on the price action which is showing us the markets have consolidated after a long sustained rally, expect it to continue higher after a breakout of the triangle formation.
AMEX:SPYLong
by OptionsPlay
CADUSD: Is this a bottom for the Canadian dollar?This level might be the bottom in this pair. Trump's tariff announcement might have created a negative enough sentiment to form a bottom here. From Zerohedge: "Canadians have had a tough time of it recently: they are getting inundated with illegal immigrants (thanks to Trudeau's welcome) and not benefitting from the wholesale emigration north that so many liberals promised if Trump was elected; housing has become unaffordable due to Chinese hot money flows encouraged by the government; the Canadian energy industry is hosed because of US shale production-driven low prices; and now the US imposes trade tariffs on another of their biggest exports." "The determination that Canada improperly subsidizes its exports is preliminary, and the Commerce Department will need to make a final decision. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission will need to find that the U.S. industry has suffered injury. But even a preliminary decision has immediate real-world consequences, by discouraging importers from buying lumber from Canada." www.zerohedge.com To me, as a contrarian, it sounds like a good opportunity, although the odds of the trade working are low, the payoff would be significant. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4