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Tradewar

ORBEX: Investors Brush-Off USMCA Headlines! Softening Dollar?JGB yields brushed off USMCA headlines yesterday and took a positive turn above the zero mark! JGB's haven't been positive since March 2019! Is this hinting that investors turn optimistic on global economies? Or just a shot-lived surge own to auction? Supported by impeachment uncertainty and poor US data yen rose against the greenback yesterday, however, the pound continued sliding on the back of no-deal risks. Will the US and UK GDP figures change the short-term outlook? Canadian retails are also due and they could be causing some short-term moves. Will they help loonie strengthen further? Timestamps USDJPY 1H 01:30 GBPUSD 1H 04:00 USDCAD 1H 05:40 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
2
Rejected Bears and Low VolatilityJust as expected, Australian investors are crying foul on the low-interest rate policy adopted by my least favorite reserve bank leader, Lowe Phillips. He is utilizing the same policy that lead the ECB into a never-ending bear market. When there is uncertainty in the global economy and you are not one of the "majors" then don't throw oil on the fire by creating an atmosphere that makes global & local investors more fearful of your future. Australia has a great economy, one just needs to look at their BOP (Balance of Payment). Despite all the fear, the exchange rate has become "sticky" and currently rejecting a further fall. We just need progress in the trade deal to start a bull market and with commodities almost back in season it might be impressive. Disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor.
Long
by TogamiTrader
1
GBPAUD TRADING OPINION AND PLANPotential space for lower in my opinion and as the chart we can see price breaking lower the ascending trendline and support 1.93076 should indicate bearish in power. Boris Johnson and his friends are amending the Brexit bill to NOT allow further extensions. This means that, once the government has set a deadline, the U.K. must stick to it with or without a trade deal with the EU. On the other hand the so-called Phase One trade deal between Washington and Beijing has been “absolutely completed,” a top White House adviser said on Monday, adding that U.S. exports to China will double under the agreement which provided some positive vibe in comdolls sentiment which I think will help Aussie on this trade at the moment.
Short
by Anatta0
USDCAD ELLIOT WAVE LINED UP WITH CLASSICAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDCAD rose in overlapping five-wave "leading diagonal" from the major low at 1.30422. Leading diagonal always indicates the direction of the major trend, and in USDCAD's case, it is bullish. The subsequent decline is the corrective pattern, which unfolded as a double zigzag correction in wave B. The corrective wave retraced around 61.8 - 78.6% of wave A, and also bottomed at a demand zone + ascending trendline. The confluence of classical technical analysis and Elliot Wave further confirms that the price should resume the advance on or from near the current market price. The potential target for wave C is the resistance zone + Descending trendline. What's your thought about USDCAD? Best, Veejahbee.
Long
by Veejahbee
3
Spanish Markets Fundamentals and Technicals Point HigherWith the supposed China "phase 1" deal being agreed upon...even though when no actual facts are really being presented and now the Americans are claiming it will be signed mid January...the trade has still been risk on. Markets globally liked the news as some uncertainties dissipate and we are set for a Santa Clause rally. I like what I see in the Spanish markets, the Ibex. I believe it generally is lagging behind some of the Asian markets, the American and European markets. Remember folks, it is not about forward guidance. There is nowhere to go for yield anymore except stocks in this environment where central banks keep interest rates artificially suppressed. As a fund manager, you cannot be in cash for a long period of time. Your clients pay you for yield. Bonds yield very low...way below the pension fun targets of 8% and they historically are heavy fixed income...not anymore. Real estate? Property taxes do bring yield down and most funds do not want to become REITs. Some say cryptos but that would only happen once it gets regulated. No fund manager would put clients money in cryptos knowing that exchanges do not have the money to pay you back if Bitcoin goes higher because legally, they do not need to since they are NOT regulated. Stocks are the only place to go, and I think these markets that are lagging will be attracting money chasing yield. The Ibex has been in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. We then began to base long term and even created a double bottom pattern. You can see that this range was composed of trends and a head and shoulders pattern we traded in the past. Recently, we created a larger head and shoulders pattern which I find very interesting. With todays daily break, which is strong, the trade is triggered. We are looking at the 10,000 for first tp.
FOREXCOM:ESP35Long
by Uncharted-FX
S&P to 3900, potential on phase1 trade dealAfter an array of failed emergency monetary tactics such as a $500B a year corporate tax break, 3 rounds of Quantitative Easing and 3 rate cuts, finally after the trade deal was announced, we peaked our head well up above the bottom of channel / sub-channel we had been stuck in for over a year now. This was additional evidence that the drag on stock markets despite all the corporate welfare was largely due to the direct impact of the trade war (and related unpredictable policy) on global economies. Likely it will take a little time to step its way up to top of channel and likely will only happen in the absence of renewed trade tensions. Other than renewed trade tensions, there doesn't seem much in the way to prevent us from seeing the S&P at 3800-3900 in 2020. If we do reach top of this 10 year channel for the S&P bull market, it will be the first time we have seen it in over 4 years now and the actual first evidence of a strong corporate economy under this administration. At this point the only way to outperform the markets from the previous 8 years is if this administrations economic policies are able to see a break upwards out of top of this 10 year channel without further emergency monetary policy boosting it. After mostly riding the bottom of trend for 4 years now, this is only the second time we have seen hope for breaking out of the sluggish bottom of channel, we just need to maintain the path of restoring global trade and I think we will see top of channel. There is a lot of potential here. This is not trade advice, DYOR, Author is holding S&P ETF options long. s
SP:SPXLong
by EncryptShawn
1
ORBEX:Indices Following US-Sino Deal & Trump's Impeachment Vote!In today’s market insights I will talk about the cautious market reaction to the US-China trade deal announcement and what to look for in this week’s volatile session! Yes, I am still expecting markets to move considerably despite the festive season approaching. I analyze the leading NASDAQ and the US index and explain why I expect equities to continue higher! Timestamps NAS100 2H 01:40 DXY 2H 05:00 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
TVC:DXY
by Orbex
Triangle Pattern Could Send CADCHF LowerCADCHF and EURCAD are negatively correlated; that is, if EURCAD is trading higher, then most of the time CADCHF will be trading lower. I've been tracking a triangle pattern on EURCAD, but when a colleague sent me his view on CADCHF, I could easily spot an almost completed triangle pattern as well. This further confirms that the triangle on EURCAD and the related pattern could send CADCHF lower in wave C. See related ideas links for EURCAD analysis.
Short
by Veejahbee
What Last Friday Sell-Off Could Mean for EURUSDThe EURUSD saw a massive sell-off last Friday, which led to the formation of a bearish Pin Bar at a critical supply zone and weekly descending trendline. Although EURUSD seems to have resumed the advance from 1.087 major low on the chart, the correction might not be completed yet. The price action after the advance showed a three-wave down in wave (a) and three-wave up in wave (b). This pattern could result in a complex corrective structure in wave 2. If this count is correct, the pin bar should send the pair further lower in a five-wave pattern in wave (c) to complete an expanded Flat Elliot Wave pattern. The blue box and 78.6% Fib is the estimated area for wave (c) to bottomed. What's your view on EURUSD? Thanks for reading! Veejahbee.
Short
by Veejahbee
EURCAD Triangle Might Yet To Completed - Bias Remains BullishI published an analysis on EURCAD yesterday, projecting an upward move from the Triangle pattern. After I carefully reviewed yesterday price action, I could see that it was a corrective pattern, not impulse. So I re-count the wave from bottom in related with AUDCAD and know that it's forming a double three/triple zigzag corrective pattern. Yesterday invalidation level still valid, as wave e of the triangle should not breach wave "c" low according to Elliot Wave principle. Price action can only be delayed, but the bullish rally is so imminent!. What's your thought on EURCAD? Let's interact in the comment section. Best, Veejahbee.
Long
by Veejahbee
2
1474 level is on our radar in XAUUSD.Although U.S. – China trade deal has been accepted by the U.S. side, China hasn’t commented on the issue yet. Also, the selling pressure, which has arisen due to the latest news in the precious metal, is losing its impact gradually. If the current recovery trend continues, 1474 and 1478 will be on our radar as the resistance levels. On the other side, 1462 and 1456 support levels are still significant for us for possible retreats in the precious metal.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by LimitMarkets
GOLD is Screaming "BUY ME!!!" - Here is How to Take AdvantagePrice, time, and patience is the way to gain clarity in the market. Gold whipsawing price action has caused me to establish an alternative "bearish" bias, especially the last Friday sell-off. However, the current price action and movement during this week are showing a new pattern and increasing my confidence for the bulls! Price is making a 1-2, (i)-(ii) pattern which is an indication for an extended wave 3 (mean a sharp rally is underway). The previous wave 2 corrective structure unfolded as an expanded flat and retraced 78.6% of wave 1. The current wave (ii) of (iii) of 3 is correction is also unfolding as an expanded flat, and it will most likely be terminated at 78.6% retracement of wave (i). As you can see from the chart, that level lined up with 3rd bounce of ascending trendline and blue zone. HISTORY LESSONS "History Does Sometimes Repeat Itself! And Those Who Do Not Learn History Are Doomed To Repeat It." Repeat it in the sense that, you can either take advantage of the opportunity or missed out on the new rally. For confirmation & conservative entry, wait for the price to breach the green line after the price has already dipped down to the blue zone. See related link for Higher Time Frame analysis. What's your thought about Gold, bullish or bearish? Best of luck on the chart! Veejahbee.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Veejahbee
Triangle Pattern Should Send EURCAD HigherAfter a lot of whipsawing price action on EURCAD, and AUDCAD, I could now see the kind of price pattern in the making. When there is a range-bound or contracting price action, it usually tends to be a Triangle. I'm able to label the price action on EURCAD. And if the count is correct, price should resume higher from or near the current market price and the invalidation level should remain intact for the bullish bias to remain valid. What's your thought? Bullish or Bearish?
Long
by Veejahbee
3
EURUSD BIAS IS CLEARLY BULLISH - HOW TO TRADE IT?After a lot of struggling to identify EURUSD bottom, the market has clearly indicated the direction of the trend. The Zigzag pattern from the weekend analysis actually completed the corrective structure in wave (ii). Since then, the price has made a five-wave up which I counted as an expanding leading diagonal, but it might as well be a "1-2, (i-ii), i-ii" wave pattern. What's most important is that we should see a pullback to the near support to get in at a value price, and also the wave (ii) low remains the current invalidation level for any buy position. What's your thought about EURUSD? Thanks for reading! Veejahbee.
Long
by Veejahbee
6
GOLD "XAUUSD" CORRECTIVE CYCLE IS YET TO BE COMPLETEDI have posted a series of analyses on GOLD in the last few weeks forecasting a bullish run in the longterm but seems the bears are not giving the bulls a chance. Here we go again as I'm looking at Gold from a fresh perspective after last Friday's sell-off. The GOLD corrective structure in wave 4 is becoming more complex. The visible count for the correction right now is a triple ZigZag Elliot Wave pattern. The retracement which is most likely to be completed within the blue zone that lined up with 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave 3 rally, and wave (iv) low of one lesser degree. This is a critical level to defence the bears and any move lower that breach wave 1 high @ $1348.0/oz will invalidate wave 4 idea. Another Elliot Wave Principle that's guiding this retracement is called alternation. The guideline stated if wave 2 corrective structure is shallow and simple in nature, then wave 4 will be complex and deeper. In Gold case, wave 2 is a simple zigzag and retraced 38.2% of wave 1, and so we're anticipating wave 4 to retrace 50% in a complex and time-consuming triple zigzag pattern. NOTE: This bearish bias on gold will most likely drag bitcoin price lower, as explained in the video I published on Sunday. What's your view on Gold, Bearish or Bullish longterm? Thanks for reading! Veejahbee.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Veejahbee
3
EURUSD: Correction Becoming ComplexThe corrective structure on EURUSD is becoming complex! This is expected as the currency used to mimic one another. GOLD and SILVER are moving lower in the short term so EURUSD should at least wait for them before heading higher. The retracement seems to be unfolding as a double zigzag Elliot Wave pattern. This gives us the opportunity for a short term bearish move. If this count is correct, price should resume the rally once the short-term move is completed within the blue box area, comprising of the 78.6% Fibonacci of the impulse, and a zone where wave "y" will equal wave "x". What's your take on EURUSD? Let me hear from you!
Short
by Veejahbee