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Tradewar

Will currency wars replace commodity wars?In general, Monday began quite peacefully. China has been non-aggressive in its response to Trump who has signed into law a bill that supports pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. And it seemed that we were waiting for another boring day. However, Trump once again showed why we prefer the sale of the dollar for a quite long time. He began the day by accusing Argentina and Brazil of understating their national currencies value to gain a competitive advantage for their products in the US market. In response, the President of the United States raised tariffs on the import of steel and aluminium from these countries. Well, he continued with the Fed’s traditional accusations of overvaluation of the dollar and called on the Central Bank to weaken monetary policy and the dollar. Markets took it as signals for sales of the American currency. Moreover, the buyers on the dollar were not happy with the data on the ISM Index in the US manufacturing sector: 48.1 pips with a forecast of 49.2 pips. Recall that an index value below 50 signals a deterioration in business activity in the US manufacturing sector. Well, returning to Trump and his actions on Monday, in the light of such events, it’s premature to talk about the end of the trade wars. Rather, on the contrary, there is a reason to talk about the transition of trade wars to currency wars with the consequences that maybe even more devastating for the global economy. In general, the future looks rather bleak. In this regard, our recommendations to buy safe-haven assets remain relevant. Our basic positions for today are: finding points for sales of the dollar, purchases of gold and the Japanese yen, sales of oil and the Russian ruble. We also note that while the period of low volatility continues on the foreign exchange market, it is worthwhile to continue aggressive trading on the intraday basis without obvious preferences, for which you can use watch oscillators.
TVC:DXY
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: Has the Santa Rally Started Already?In today’s market insights I explain why equities are not affected by reports that China wants existing tariffs removed in order to proceed with phase one of a deal! Perhaps, investors couldn't care less about the consistent back and forth between US and China before they go home for Christmas... I reveal how I expect the S&P500 to perform in December, and while at it, I also analyse the US index! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
TVC:DXY
by Orbex
COMPLETED 5-3 CYCLE SET UP EURUSD FOR MAJOR RALLY$EURUSD is setting up for a massive rally in wave 3. Wave 3 should exceed the high of wave 1 and might advance 1x or 1.618x wave 1. Price is sitting at a critical confluence level comprising of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance, and wave (c) equal 0.618 x Wave (a). I took a loss on last week because I was initially labeled the correction as a regular flat pattern. I had to re-evaluate before the market close on Friday, and I already open a new buy position. All these are in line with bullish activity on Gold, and BTCUSD. While the US economy will suffer. Expecting Dollar weakness!
Long
by Veejahbee
3
ORBEX: Trump Signs HK Bills, Denting Trade Optimism AGAIN!In today’s market insights I talk about Trump’s latest move to support HK protesters by signing two bills, denting optimism around the recent trade war optimism! The shift in sentiment was expected but how risk vs havens performed may seem confusing to some when looking at CADJPY and AUDCHF. Here I explain how the yen and franc are likely to perform against high beta commodity currencies Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
3
GOLD UPSIDE IMMINENT ?Good morning traders As I sit at my desk this morning looking at my pairs I trade I’ve realized the need of “sitting on your hands” For me gold has been a very good example of this. Providing you with a 4H chart we can see that price made 3 drives into the low around 1450.00 . There has been multiple spikes based on trade developments that has just caused the market to build pressure. Where will this pressure take us in my professional opinion I foresee a new leg to the upside. Though before that I expect a drop lower into the liquidity region displayed at 1452.00 to enter this long trade. My overall target for this setup would be 1600.00 with a lower target at 1550.00 Remember to stay patient and looking at the bigger picture. Regardless of the news there has been no concrete DEAL and any SIGNATURES or MEETING to take place. So therefore investors do not like UNCERTAINTY and for these reasons I don’t see GOLD DROPPING. There’s many pips on offer 800+ pips towards our target so patience and psychology is key. Trade safe , cheers !
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by lasglowfx
5:1 R/R Short Setup - 250PIPS!Simple setup here where the daily price action is showing initial rejection of an established trend line. Volume isnt suggesting enough strength to push through this resistance in the approach to the trendline, inviting sellers to enter without too much opposition. Stop Loss above both the trendline and recent high in order to place two solid barriers between the entry and a failed trade. TP at the previous lows and next significant support. In terms of supporting fundamentals and reasons to enter: - Oil has been trending steadily higher over recent weeks and this supports CAD strength. - There are still significant barriers to cross on US-China trade talks with further tariffs looming on the 15th December. Negative news from these talks or any imposed tariffs will have a negative effect on US economy and subsequently the strength of USD. - The recent bullish price action has been very strong which could suggest overbought conditions and some correction due.
Short
by JoelWarby
ORBEX: Weekend Trade News Likely to Affect SPX, DXY!In today’s marketinsights video recording, I talk about SPX and DXY . SPX takes a breather from all-time highs offering some pocket-relief to short-term bulls, however, with weekend trade headline news the rally could continue higher. The US index looks bid too despite the medium-term bearishness as the economy performs incredibly well, supporting the dollar. From a technical perspective, there's more room to the upside for both. The index, however, will most likely have a harder trip moving higher as its upside is limited. Unless if of course a sharp bullish move occurs, taking out breakeven stops and then reversing rapidly to everyone's surprise. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Orbex
EURO Vs Loonie (EUR/CAD) Trade Idea and Plan: Bullish biasEUR / CAD has developed higher lows connected by a longer-term upward trend line and also displays lower stochastic lows. This bullish divergence indicates a rebound may occur. With little eye-catching improvements for leading indicators for the eurozone, in this session, I'm hoping to catch a quick bounce for the shared currency. On the flip side, there might be enough expectations for another dip in Canadian retail sales figures to keep the Loonie on a weak footing. On top it all off, the resurfacing uncertainty surrounding trade talks between the U.S. and China could hold a veil on gains for commodity currencies and the dollar, reversing the euro may have chances in that case.
by Anatta0
ORBEX:Loonie Bid on Poloz As Impeachment Hearing Goes Unnoticed!In today’s market insights video recording I talk about markets’ muted reaction to the impeachment hearings and focus on the assets that moved! USDCAD was bid on a hawkish Poloz as he lowered down markets' expectations of a Dec rate cut. Loonie was also supported by OPEC+ likely production cut extension. While at it, I also analyse EURUSD despite it ended the session somewhat muted as volatility increased. We are also minutes before German GDP and Lagarde’s speech! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
EUR/USD Wave analysisEUR/USD has been declining for ages. The long-term downtrend in the counter could come to a halt at this price zone. Technically, the long-term ABC wave could be completed and the short-term charts are forming an inverse head and shoulder pattern. However, the counter still needs more accumulation at the current price and could create a near-term low, which is good long entry points. Further, the Euro economy is showing signs of revival whereas the US economy is showing signs of exhaustion.
Long
by traderpulse
ORBEX: EURGBP Ready To Reverse? AUDJPY Still Correcting!In today’s market insights video recording, I talk about EURGBP and AUDJPY FX Minors. Euro is affected by a report that a phase-1 deal is highly unlikely by the end of this year as the Chinese want rollbacks pushed to May 2020 and the US Congress just passed a bill supporting Hong Kong protesters; going against China again!? Safe-haven flows were also increasing of course, following the report, allowing yen to appreciate against risk assets with AUDJPY attracting our attention once again! Pound, on the other hand, is somewhat muted as the first televised debate between Boris and Corbyn was seen as a draw. This means that the euro's somewhat better performance could allow EURGBP reverse and move higher!? Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
Aussie Vs Loonie (AUD/CAD) Trade Strategy and PlanTraders sold the Aussie like no tomorrow when the minutes of RBA's meeting indicated members expected another rate cut in November. We are worried about Australia's major trading partners ' economic slowdown; contraction in housing construction activity; outlook for consumption; wage growth; inflation; and domestic growth. Ultimately, the latest papers point out that when they meet next, RBA leaders will slash their rates in February. Trade tensions in the U.S .- China pressured crude oil prices and lead it to fall lower further. Also, Russia isn't inclined to cut production more deeply at the December 5 OPEC meeting and that means the market is likely to remain oversupplied in early-2020 . Carolyn A. Wilkins (Speech): The market is focusing on the line that there is 'room to maneuver'. Don't think she's sending a signal here but any time there is the talk of cuts (and QE), that's the knee-jerk. USD/CAD touched a session high of 1.3264 from 1.3230 before the comments and AUDCAD had an effect too. Canada also did not publish outstanding posts. Canada’s manufacturing sales took a step back in September. CPI reports (Nov 20), Poloz Speaks (Nov 21) and Retail Sales (Nov 22) will clearly provide additional optimism or pessimism hint to traders for the loonie. Positive turn in global risk sentiment may also help traders to think to get out of safe havens and into risk currencies like the Loonie. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs (Nov 21) from Australia should be taken care of. We should take this information in mind throughout the week if we trade in this cross pair or any Aussie or Loonie being as base or variable (counter).
by Anatta0
3
ORBEX: Dollar Weakness Drives Euro and Yen Higher!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about EURUSD and USDJPY FX Majors Both major pairs were affected by incoming trade war flows, following China's rather pessimistic view on proceeding with a phase-1 of a potential trade deal. Euro could move towards 1.11 round resistance and yen could push the dollar down near the 108 round support. The above scenarios have validating signals that you can find watching this video! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
ORBEX: EQUITIES REACH FRESH ALL TIME HIGHS!In today’s marketinsights video recording, I talk about SPX and DXY . SPX keeps hitting fresh highs despite Fed's message to keep rates on hold until 2020. Trade wars do seem to be influencing flows more than anything else right now? Whatever the case, sharp upside and overbought hints to exhaustion! The DXY's recent upside though should be watched closely. It's either an expanded flat or a zig-zag correction, so, could expect either a decline or a correction. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
TVC:DXY
by Orbex