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Tradewar

USD CNH - Escalation of Tensions !Relationships between the U.S and China have been deteriorating at a really fast pace since the begging of the Trade War between both countries back in 2018, where hundreds of billions of dollars in taxes over nationals goods, were exchanged. Despite the escalation of tensions, Trump's primary goal was to try to please the agricultural sector, since the farmer's states integrate a meaningful part of its electorate, so aiming re-election the promise of China in boosting its purchases of U.S agricultural goods served Trump needs. However, the disastrous response of Trump to the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S and other domestic crises has put its chances of re-election in jeopardy. With almost 3 million cases confirmed and more than 130,000 American lives ended, plus the massive riots across the country due to the murder of George Floyd by cops and the economic crisis that is hitting the country with an unemployment rate of 13.3%. A context that has been causing the growth of the dissatisfaction of the population with the state of the country, such discontentment is already appearing on the recent polls that put the Democrat candidate Joe Biden in a 10 points lead over Trump. With the risk of losing re-election, Trump might use the oldest trick of the book of governors that want to unify the country and take the focus off its own failures, create a common enemy. In this case, China its the perfect fit, since the country was the first to report the new Coronavirus and has been moving to curb Hong Kong autonomy through the new security law. So Trump can target China first by blaming the country over the pandemic, and retaliating in defense of Hong Kong democracy, placing then meaningful sanctions and increasing the friction between both countries. Looking at the monthly chart, the US Dollar Chinese Yuan Offshore is in a very intrigue spot now since the price is moving accordingly to the Elliott Wave rules so far, with a Wave 3 in process of formation. After the price confirmed a Wave 2 due to the retracement of near 76.4% of Wave 1, the CNH managed to surpass the top of Wave 1 confirming a possible Wave 3 that has the following targets based on the rules that determine the extension of this wave: Targets: 1) 7.80869 - 161.8% of wave 1-2 2) 8.18008 - 200% of wave 1-2 3) 8.78091 - 261.8% of wave 1-2 4) 9.38174 - 323.6% of wave 1-2 This context shows us the possibilities of this new large impulse movement of the USD CNH been the reflection of the rasing of tensions between China and the U.S, as China will fight to increase the yuan relevance on the market as the U.S will try to undermine China influence on the global economy. Thanks for reading, please feel free to share your comments and perspectives below, I'm still grinding my way to improve my analysis, so all feedback is welcome. "A crisis is an opportunity riding the dangerous wind" - Chinese Proverb
Long
by Ikaro_Soares
USD/RUB, targeting 77.174 (big move coming)Backdrop Rapidly escalating trade war tensions between US and China and concerns on a potential second wave of covid-19 continue to linger. President Putin faces many challenges domestically, and his policies could ultimately impact the direction on the ruble. Trouble at home Russia is struggling to contain covid-19 at home and is on track to remain top 3 in the number of confirmed cases. While the death toll of 3,388 is significantly lower than most EU countries, I would take this figure with a grain of salt. In fact, the same view can be applied across all countries as every government classifies the deceased in a different way. Nevertheless, over the past month, President Putin announced the gradual easing of restrictions, with local governors given the ability to decide on implementations and timelines. This is slightly uncommon given how tight Putin has run his ship, but also a strategic move on his part given that he could shift the blame on local governors should there be a rise in infections. It's noteworthy that President Putin's approval rating is already at its lowest since his inauguration in 1999. Given that Russia is heading towards its most serious recession since 1998, his base of support could decline further in the next several months. Putin's administration can take all the credit if easing plans bode well for the economy. China - Catch 22 Russia has built strong ties with China over the past decade amid deteriorating relationships with the West. President Putin cannot afford to take the same stance as US President Trump on blaming China's alleged mishandling of covid-19 given China is its biggest strategic partner and hedge against the US and EU. What can Russia do? Putin could either divert attention by increasing geopolitical tensions (vis-a-vis Crimea type of move). However, such a bold strategy could do more harm than good. The only way out seems to be shifting focus towards structural and regulatory reforms, and reducing corruption. In fact, there is more incentive to diversify its economy now given the sharp drop in oil prices. However, Putin's administration has yet to deploy massive fiscal support (as seen by other countries). I suspect this will come towards the end of the year; the reluctance may have to do with timing of the referendum (his political plan is to remain as Russia's president potentially until 2036). Rate cut implications Last month, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) lowered its rate by 50 bps to 5.50% in line with market expectations, while signaling for more cuts to come to reduce recessionary risks. The pair retreated in response to CBR's dovishness and rate cut. At this stage, I don't see rate cuts as a big deal given every central bank is easing, so long as the CBR's word remains credible. If the latter does not hold, currency interventions may be required to stop RUB depreciation. Technical analysis I believe we are in favor of a move higher in the pair as we breakout from a descending triangle pattern. There are plenty of shorter time frame technical analysis on the pair - that's not the ultimate focus here, but rather to take a directional view based on fundamental analysis. Risks / opportunities On the contrary, RUB could be one of the most attractive EM plays if Putin's administration can weather the storm and implement comprehensive economic reforms. Currently, I am not of that bullish view, particularly on the backdrop of covid-19, while any heightened tensions between the US and China is a negative for RUB. As such, targeting near April highs of 77.174 as an initial target with stop loss set (at 69.946) under the support zone of around 72.700.
Long
by Miloslaw
6
USDCHF is Approaching a Level That Should Scare the BullsThe rally from wave c of Y low on 16th Jan 2020 has been unfolding as a double zigzag corrective wave. Corrective structure moves in the opposite direction of the major trend, that's once the wave y of X is completed, the bearish trend should resume. I'm anticipating the correction to complete at the daily resistance zone that lined up with the moving average. Watch out for bearish price action signals from that zone to confirm the completion of correction. What's your thought on USDCHF?
Short
by Veejahbee
USD INDEX Is Setting Up for Potential DeclineThe decline from 99.66 unfolded as a leading diagonal structure, labeled i-ii-iii-iv-v. According to Elliot Wave theory, leading diagonal always point toward the direction of the major trend. Also, once a five-wave impulse is completed a three-wave retracement follows. In the Dollar Index case, the corrective pattern seems to be unfolded as a w-x-y double zigzag and has fulfilled the requirement. Confluence that the price is also sitting at a resistance zone and approaching 78.6 Fib, a bearish reversal is imminent. While the 99.66 invalidation level remains intact, watch out for bearish price action signal from the resistance zone. The breach of the Flag channel or blue horizontal line will confirm the bearish setup. What's your view on Dollar?
TVC:DXYShort
by Veejahbee
💎 BTC and MSCI China ETF: reversal correlation of prices! Thumb UP👍 if you find this chart interesting! 👨🏻‍💻This chart shows a strong reversal correlation of prices between one of the famous classic financial instruments NYSE:MSCI and BTC. So you have one more indicator in your trading strategy! What do you guys think about it? Let's discuss in a comment! ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 🚀Let me remind you that Bitcoin was created as a response to the crisis in the real estate market that broke out in 2008 and had serious consequences for the entire economy. Over time, the cryptocurrency managed to win the interest of traditional investors, who began to consider BTC as one of the hedging tools against geopolitical risks.  This is particularly evident during the escalation of the trade war between the US and China. Then the bitcoin exchange rate significantly strengthened, as many believed that it could offer them protection from shocks in the financial markets. It is noteworthy that this happened against the background of falling stock indexes. It is no secret that the main players in the cryptocurrency market are Asians, especially Chinese. Historically, it can be traced that when panic sales of classic cyclical assets begin in China due to increased geopolitical or other risks, there is an increase in bitcoin. Thus, the Chinese population is trying to protect their assets. Therefore, it can be argued that the further growth of tensions in trade relations between the United States and the rest of the world, the Outbreak of the virus epidemic, is likely to fuel interest in "digital gold". And in General, classical markets need a correction, at least technical, the American stock market has been growing continuously for more than 10 years, the reason for this can be any, why not a Coronavirus? ✅ Investors need a reason to fix previously earned profits and then the fall can develop like a snowball. This situation can be a moment of truth for bitcoin. If the cryptocurrency manages to establish itself in the status of a protective asset, this can give a strong impetus to the further growth of the BTC. Look at my other interesting charts below!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Fandorinn
7
ORBEX: Equities Continue Recording All-Time Highs!US Retails Sales, corporate earnings and now Chinese consumer data add on to the equities rally! Despite US equities having reached overbought levels, phase one seems to be working well on global #indices. All eyes will turn to Davos this week, central banks' decisions and also the widely anticipate Trump’s impeachment trial. Let’s see how equities will pan out. Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Orbex
RH - buy set upThis is a continuation of my previous chart. I am providing an update and will do that regularly on this chart as this is a set up stage and we are in a very interesting timezone for this stock. The important number for us to look for closing price on this chart is 219.39 on support and 229.64 for positive breakout confirmation. Price opened at 221.83 quickly fell to a low of 218.22, but the bulls pulled the prices higher and the day closed stronger at 223.28 The area we find ourselves is a strong congestion zone where we have seen price finding a lot of small real bodies floating around signaling lack of control on either side. Traders have felt confused with the lack of clear direction and as expected, volume in this zone of trading has been lower than normal. Lets’ look ahead, I have my eyes on the magic number of 229.64 for a breakout to seek further action for my upside target Target 1 : 244 Larger 2 : 270-275 levels Please share a thumbs up if you like what you see and you could also share your comments in the section below Cheers
NYSE:RHLong
by LoveForCharts
2
ORBEX: With US-China Done, All Eyes on Brexit Now!The US and China signed a partial deal yesterday, putting a temporary stop to global uncertainty! Without that being the end of the trade war, at least we can now wait and see if China respects the signed terms over the next few months... Are emerging markets affected by the fresh rhetoric since China is supported, or should we just focus on monetary policy, particularly in South Africa today? Market participants will now look at the EU and UK for a resolution on the Brexit front. Will the House of Lords prevent a January exit? And how will the EC react about an 11-month transition if they won't? Watch our analyses on euro-pound and the SA rand! Timestamp EURGBP 8H 02:15 USDZAR 8H 04:45 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
6
MU strong stock trend in stronger On a yearly performance, MU did better than 77% of other electronic components stocks. Now it is currently trading near its 52 weeks high so it is performing in line with the broader markets. On a mid-term based daily chart, we could see a strong wedge uptrend pattern with momentum, and a few minor pullbacks occurred due to some broader geopolitical impacts such as the trade war and global 5G development uncertainty. But the stock is kept showing higher lows signaling the investors' passion for it. MU is about to consolidate at the 56.8 support level which is lying underneath the price as the chart indicated above. Since the ATR volatility risk has not packed in too much yet at the current high, DMI overall trend indicator is still heading up and bull-side trend strength is still controlling the directional momentum, I would go long with it. My target is simply at the prior all-time high resistant area which is indicated by the red band above the stock price roughly at 60, any pullbacks that break below its bollinger bands middle band could be seen as a stop-loss trigger. Besides, on the order flow side, there were over 2.9 million valued long calls detected from the options chain today with a strike at 60, expire in March.
NASDAQ:MULong
by Khabilan
SOXX looks strong ahead of Phase 1 trade dealSOXX got a little out of hand last year, surging to new highs despite a minor earnings recession in the sector. However, the dividend yield has continued to improve over that period, and the outlook for the sector has fundamentally improved in 2020. According to FactSet, "At the industry level, the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry has the highest number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance," with eight companies having issued guidance above Street expectations. That means that despite the fairly high multiple at which the sector trades, positive sentiment is only increasing early in the year. It's worth buying a small stake in this ahead of the scheduled signing of a Phase 1 trade deal Wednesday, and a larger stake if and when the price dips to any significant degree.
NASDAQ:SOXXLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
USD bearish against MYRIn a monthly time frame, it is clear that the pattern forming descending triangle and forming double top inside the major pattern. Although the major trend still uptrend, but the price move near the support line with the RSI 40%. After breakout double top pattern, the price might be pullback to the breakout point and wait for bearish price action to short, thus, set the 1st TP @ 3.8556, 2nd TP @ 3.7364, 3rd TP @ 3.5567. In terms of fundamental, USD bearish due to few crisis such as US-IRAN war and US-China Trade War. DISCLAIMER: THIS IS OPINION BASED ON MY PERSPECTIVE. FOLLOW AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Short
by traderfiz
GBPUSD: POUND THE BUCKDespite what seems to be an everlasting downfall, the GBPUSD pair is currently in an uphill battle, literally. Climbing up in its current channel, the price point has recently tested what I consider a 'break-out' but failed. Not losing too much of its momentum, the price point fell from 1.35052 to 1.30844 where it rebounded with nice support. A 'break-out' was then again restested on December 31st but also failed. Despite failure, the price point found support at 1.36012 (higher than the previous support level). Also sitting on the bottom of its uptrend channel, it looks like the Pound is posed for a successful 'break-out' in the coming days. With worldwide tensions rising and pressures mounting against the USD, would this be of much surprise? P.S. The 12H chart also shows support under the current price level. Both 50 & 200 EMAs are sitting close by. Seemingly, awaiting the right time to push the price point up.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn5320750
4
ORBEX: FX Majors Remain Bid int he New Year! Will It Last?The FX majors stretched into 2020 firm, spelling a strong term against a weaker #dollar! Will this continue being the case though when uncertainty around #tradewar and #Brexit remain elevated? Take a peek at our #elliottwave analysis for some technical insight at least. Timestamps EURUSD 1H 01:45 USDJPY 1H 03:30 GBPUSD 1H 05:50 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Cleveland Cliffs is an inexpensive trade deal recovery playCleveland Cliffs is a mining company with a lot of exposure to China tariffs. The company's earnings took a huge hit this year due to the downturn in steel as a result of the trade war, and the price plummeted. The company should get a nice surge on any positive trade talk news. It briefly made a bullish trend line break Friday when the market thought a deal had been made to repeal tariffs, but it's back down today after Trump said he loves the tariffs and he hasn't agreed to repeal them. (Sometimes I think he's jerking us around on purpose.) Even without a trade deal, this stock is a good bargain at the current price. It's got a sustainable 3% dividend and is financially healthy enough to weather the downturn. It did well on its last earnings report and has unusually bullish options activity. Backward P/E is now about 2.6, whereas before the trade war this traded at more like 10-15. Forward P/E is higher at 6.5, but still well below the 5-year average. Buy this for the dividend and hold it for the recovery whenever our political leaders get their act together on trade.
NYSE:CLFLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
3
VIPS run should continue after pullback from overboughtChinese retailer VIPS has been on a massive run lately, and is now pulling back from overbought on the weekly. The stock has formed two upward trend lines, one steeper than the other. We may break the steepest trend line and bounce from the secondary one. VIPS started 2019 at a low valuation, and over the course of the year has seen a roughly 100% increase in its earnings forecast. The share price has risen accordingly, but the stock remains significantly undervalued according to S&P Global Intelligence, with a valuation rating of 86/100. VIPS has posted huge earnings beats on its last five earnings reports. The company next reports earnings on February 18, 2020. Judging from the current earnings forecast, I judge that the share price is likely to hit $30 per share by 2021. The stock has a 9.5/10 analyst summary score and fairly bullish options volume even after the huge run it's been on.
NYSE:VIPSLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
KEY TRADING THEMES FOR 2020General fundamental context: Expect global mini economic expansion in 2020. Yes, 2019 year, to the surprise of many, managed to avoid recession. Do you remember this extremely weird rally BOTH bonds and stocks? Investors were basically divided into two camps - doomsayers and smart and witty stock traders who almost blindly bet on Fed capitulation. Because of that I have moderately bearish outlook on funding currencies (Yen, CHF, USD, Euro) and Bullish on “Commodity dollars” (AUD, CAD) and HY (RUB, PESO, ZAR, NZD). Medium term outlook for XAUUSD is also bearish because because zero-yield assets negatively correlate with positive economic growth. MAJOR FUNDAMENTAL CATALYSTS Implementation of trade agreement (aka "Phase one" Deal) What to watch: - China trade data; - Brazil and Argentina Soybean export data; - US agro exports, producer price index etc; - European trade data, PPI (because to increase imports from US, China has to cut imports from other trade partners. It is a zero sum game, you know). No favourable shifts in Trade - Tariffs are back on the table - second tough test for the US stock market. "Phase Two" Deal Rhetorics. Remember that many contentious issues remained unresolved after Phase one Deal. Next stage is Phase Two deal discussion which Trump touted would start right after the signing "Phase one" Deal. What to watch: - Trump twitter; US 2020 Presidential Elections What to watch: - Trump leads, so focus on his new campaign promises. It is important because Trump looks a man of his word and delivered on his main campaign pledges (Mexico Wall, tax reform, revision of World Trade Order). - Watch closely US polls. Markets will be extremely sensitive to this data and with the approach of the date of elections Dollar may start to resemble Pound reacting to Brexit news (really). Federal Reserve Policy. The policymakers signalled no more interest rate cuts till the end of 2020. Any tweaks in policy or change in communications can move stocks and Dollar either way. I want to wish you a happy new year. All the best to you, your family and friends. 2019 will definitely be missed, but let’s make it even bigger in 2020!
INDEX:DXYShort
by PipVision
The 2020 OUTLOOK: Broad Market Analysis and Guidance (Part 4/4)The 2020 Outlook: Series on Equities , part (4/4); Dec 28th, 2019 Very simple and straight forward chart. Obviously, very unlikely that it'll completely follow the drawn structure, but here are the few things that I am expecting in 2020. 1. It will be a slow year. Mostly because of all of the election noise, smart money will be waiting on the outcome of the elections. The importance of the elections, is that it's one of the most polarized election in recent history. It will basically be a coin-toss whether, we will have a sell-off post elections or not. Either-way, speculators will kick in 2020, and volatility should rise . Momentum is still bullish. 2. Global macro trends have bounced and are somewhat recovery. I am waiting to see whether the recovery will continue in Q1 and Q2 before I completely dismiss any bearish ideas . Corporate profits have recovered(fred.stlouisfed.org), but they still do not support the current valuation(P/E well above historical average). 3. As of now, "Not QE" balance sheet expansion program by the FED, is planned to be cancelled in January, but options are open for further action. Post QT, liquidity is still low, and the yield curve is flat. Expecting further accomadative monetary policy, perhaps even an actual QE-4 announcement by May. 4. The trade/cold war is HERE TO STAY. It's not going away! It will be prolonged, until most US companies move their supply chains out of China. This will dramatically decrease global growth in the short run . In fact, I think upon announcement of Phase I, it'll be a good sell news. This is it for 2019, happy New year! It's been a year full of events, developments and progress. Hoping for an even better 2020. Wishing everyone better health, better relationships and of course, larger trading P/L's! This is it on my series on the 2020 Outlook. Make sure to check the previous parts, charts and discussions are welcome! Thank you for the continuous support and feedback! Investing Strategies: Momentum vs Value Investing Liquidity Significance: For those of you interested in investing in GOLD: -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
TVC:SPXShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
8
NZD/USD Outrageously OverBought NZD's newfound strength is artificial for the most part. Let's analyze: New Zealand's GDP report showed to be better than expected, but let's put that into perspective. In Q2, their GDP was revised down and you want to convince me that this 0.7% quarter growth is significant. The yearly GDP growth is still on a convincing downtrend. Many Banks still have the RBNZ down as giving a rate cut at the start of the year. Inflation is not where they want it to be. Yes, the trade war is making progress which is a natural provider of currency strength to the NZD. However, this is not enough substance to justify the strength of the current bull run. The ridiculousness is showcased in the RSI(14) which is showing 2-year highs. Expecting a sharp decline at the start of the trading week. Disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor.
Short
by TogamiTrader
2
ORBEX: Risk Up on LOWER TARIFFS As China Announces Import Cuts!China announced they will be lowering tariffs on a number of items come January 1st, making markets looking more festive ahead of Christmas! Aussie and Kiwi took the headlines with a positive tone, however, Cable kept entering lower territories on the back on post-election no-deal fears! Will the Santa rally continue? Have a look at our Elliott Wave analysis for further clues! Timestamp AUDUSD 2H 01:15 NZDUSD 2H 04:10 GBPUSD 2H 06:20
by Orbex
ORBEX: Investors Brush-Off USMCA Headlines! Softening Dollar?JGB yields brushed off USMCA headlines yesterday and took a positive turn above the zero mark! JGB's haven't been positive since March 2019! Is this hinting that investors turn optimistic on global economies? Or just a shot-lived surge own to auction? Supported by impeachment uncertainty and poor US data yen rose against the greenback yesterday, however, the pound continued sliding on the back of no-deal risks. Will the US and UK GDP figures change the short-term outlook? Canadian retails are also due and they could be causing some short-term moves. Will they help loonie strengthen further? Timestamps USDJPY 1H 01:30 GBPUSD 1H 04:00 USDCAD 1H 05:40 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
2