Get started

Tradewar

ORBEX: WTI, GOLD: China Wants US to Roll Back Sept's Tariffs!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #crude #oil and #gold. Flows seem to have been affecting the two assets in different ways; potential oil production cuts were somewhat offset with #tradear narratives as China is asking the US to roll back September's tariffs, and gold slid lower on the back of a stronger dollar owed to positive #ISM data and weaker majors such as the #euro and #pound. From a technical perspective, #wti's correction seems exhausted, whereas #xauusd's slide could have either ended (or ending currently) or we might see another downside leg to complete minor 4 lower. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Orbex
LOONIE Likely To test 1.30600 After EMA 50 & Trendline Break Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Short
by FX618Analysis
Dollar in danger, trade optimism and commodity markets go upThis week, as we noted yesterday, will not be rich in fundamental events, so markets have focused on the trade war. China deal is likely to be signed in November. Added to this positive news the information that the United States may not set tariffs on imported cars from Europe and Japan. Naturally, the safe-haven assets adjusted against this background. Despite yesterday's decline, we continue to recommend the purchase of gold and the Japanese yen. Entry points based on yesterday have become even more attractive. Therefore we observed the growth in the commodity markets. Recall, we recommend buying oil in the region of $ 60 (brand WTI). Especially when you consider the latest news that the IPO Saudi Aramco is finally completing its long epic. With the current information, on December 11, shares of the company can be offered for trading on the Riyadh Stock Exchange. Returning to the foreign exchange market, we note that the dollar looks less strong in the foreign exchange market. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), speculative rates on the growth of the dollar on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell by almost two-thirds. Thus, speculators sell the dollar for the second week in a row, and if this trend develops, then in the next reporting period its net position may become short. So we recall our recommendation to sell the US dollar. The sale of USDCAD seems to be promising. According to CFTC, the net long speculative position on the Canadian dollar reached its most bullish level since December 2017. That is, the markets are very aggressive and it is worth to join the general rush. However, sales of the dollar against the yen, the euro and the pound also look quite prospective. As for today, the Reserve Bank of Australia expectedly left the rate unchanged. And the most interesting event in terms of macroeconomic statistics today is the publication of the ISM index of business activity in the US services sector. Also, pay attention to the data on the US trade balance.
Short
by Trade24Fx
CN50USD -Ascending triangle formationChina 50 creating a Ascending triangle formation, watch out for divergences going ahead on RSI and price action. Also, ROC over 0 In the positive direction may encourage upwards trend and otherwise in case of sub zero. Watch out for trends on movements We are approaching climax and breakout zone and in the Set up stage now . Interestingly, on Daily charts, CQQQ, the technology index for CQQQ tried to make an upward move but came back in zone too. but approaching climax zone. It will nice to see how they all develop going ahead. Look out for more in this space If you like what you read, please share a thumbs up ! Cheers
OANDA:CN50USD
by LoveForCharts
ORBEX: Risk Aversion & Poor Data Move USDCHF & USDCADIn today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about trade war uncertainty and Trump's impeachment and how has safe-haven Franc reacted to the latest headlines! I also talk about Canada's poor GDP figures, a bit more certain given the numerical value, and analyse USDCAD's rise. With Fed flows still weighing on markets, #NFP hours ahead and #ISM closing the session it's going to be a very interesting weekly conclusion. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
EURAUD Short Trade Executed! Price Aiming For 1.61850 LevelHello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Short
by FX618Analysis
ORBEX: Trump Comment Reduces Haven Flows, Brexit Extended Again!In today’s #marketinsightsi video recording, I talk about the rise of optimism around US-Sino trade and how it could impact #USDJPY until the two leaders meet next month. On top of the latest #Trump related flows, the pair will be affected perhaps positively from this week's #FOMC meeting as markets are expecting the Fed to cut interest rates again! I also picked #EURUSD on the back of yet another #Article50 extension and as #pound seemed a little "out-of-touch" with the latest developments surrounding #Brexit. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ASUKA TIME IS RUNNING OUT 4 $btc BITCOIN's legendary prophecy! Is the Asuka prophecy still in play? In my video we look at the historic accuracy of the Asuka Prophecy as time is running out for the latest prediction. this one is getting interesting though as the chinese president gives a green light to crypto and Edward Snowden tweets the smug asuka used in the prophetic post from 4chans /biz/ Currently we'd need more than a 60% move upwards over the next 4 days for the post to remain true. as of now it has been correct an amazing amount of times. Do you think its possible? anyway I made a deeper video looking at the post and its relevance and we will have to see how the next few days play out for Bitcoin. www.youtube.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by xueq
Reversal Structure on SPX futures by ThinkingAntsOkWe have been trying to catch this Bearish Movement since we start observing weakness signals of the Current bullish movement -We have an ascending channel (solid white lines) -The price tested 3 times the higher trendline without being able to surpass the zone -On MACD we can see a huge Divergence -We can see a second channel (the yellow one) which shows the luck of Bullish momentum, observe the slope of it compared to the white channel. -Making an analysis of the current situation of SPX we think the China-USA trade war, is about to make no progress, as we saw the same situations going on, in the past. That is aligned with our short Technical view. -For taking a trade we will wait for a Test of the yellow ascending channel + corrective structure there, if formed we will set our short positions with our main target on the Daily ascending channel of the bullish movement -We will make a new post if the structure that we are waiting is formed.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ThinkingAntsOk
Bears return for USDCHFDespite a strong bullish rally from USDCHF, in the past couple of weeks, bulls have not been able to supply a strong enough push to battle the bearish liquidity filled in at the 1.0000 psychological level. Now, after multiple retests of this important level and continuous rejection. Bears will now look to re enter the market and push USDCHF back down to at least a 50% retracement of the bullish rally. Amidst the chaos of the US China Trade war, traders are pulling out of the Dollar and investing into safe havens such as the Swiss franc and Gold. This weakening of the US Dollar is welcomed by Trump, who wants the US to be competitive with trade and exports in order to somewhat negate the damage of the tariffs imposed by China.
Short
by IllusiveShroud
USDCHF Likely To Test 0.97500 Level After Trendline Violation!Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Short
by FX618Analysis
UK Verdict, our recommendations and plansA new version of the Brexit deal has been agreed between the EU and the UK. The pound added about 500 points by the end of the week, bringing the account of its achievements to almost 1000 points. Recall that the UK and the EU, as we predicted, were able to agree on the terms of the deal at the last moment. As a result, at the EU summit on Thursday, this deal was approved by Europe. Another problem appeared - Johnson does not have a majority in Parliament. Accordingly, he had pretty high chances to repeat the fate of his predecessor, Theresa May, who also agreed on the deal, but could not pass it through Parliament. On Saturday, a vote took place, following which the British Parliament ordered Johnson to ask for a 3-month postpone so that parliamentarians could bring its legislation into line with the new realities. Johnson, who says more than once that there will be no postpone. Thus, he was put in a rather uncomfortable position. In general, there is a feeling that such a vote is rather an attempt to publicly humiliate Johnson, rather than a really necessary thing to do. Nevertheless, Johnson sent an unsigned letter to the European Union on Saturday requesting a Brexit delay. At the same time, he sent a couple of letters to the EU (which he did not forget to sign), in one of them he says that he is against the postponement. This week we will continue to look for points for its purchases because the Brexit issue has not been solved yet. Therefore there is still potential for the pound to grow. It is worth noting the weak statistics for the United States and China, which only confirmed what has been clear for a long time: trade war cause real harm to everyone. No breakthroughs were observed regarding the end of them. In this regard, we recommended focusing on finding entry points for the purchase of safe-haven assets. Given the state of financial markets at the beginning of the week, we see no reason to revise our recommendations and this week we will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen. As for the euro. Technically you need to buy EURUSD, we recommend doing it with an eye on Thursday. The ECB will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the Eurozone on Thursday. Most likely, there will be no changes, but given the general weakness of the Eurozone economy, we will not be surprised at the “dovish” comments from the Central Bank or even the expansion of measures to soften the monetary policy, which may well provoke euro sales. The oil market was relatively calm last week. And although the Middle East continues to resemble a powder keg (Turkish military operation in Syria, an attack on an Iranian tanker, etc.), so far the markets are trying to ignore it. Last week, reserves increased by almost 10 million barrels - the maximum value since April 2019. Saudi Aramco has postponed the launch of its long-awaited initial public offering on Sunday. And although there is no direct connection between this event and the state of the oil market, in general, this is a rather bearish signal. As for our position, it is generally unchanged, while oil (WTI brand) is higher than 51.20, we tend to buy oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Analysis USD/JPY Hello Trader, here are my analysis for USD/JPY for the upcoming week. As you can see the price bounces from the resistance level at round about 108.936. The price dropped down to 108.460 the next support level where it currently stands. As we are in a up move right now, I am expecting the continuing of the up move to the level 109.765. The second scenario is the continuing up move after reaching the support level at round about 108.093. If the price breaks through this level I am expecting a down move to 107.264 and continuing to 106.645. Feel free to comment and give me your ideas. Cheers and Happy Weekend! Lukas
Long
by LBAsset
Is EURUSD about to reverse??Today is important. So is tomorrow. This market has been in a steady downtrend for some time now, with regular oscillations indicative of healthy profit taking activity. Both the US and European markets are going through turbulent times manifesting in US/China trade talks, calls for impeachment over alleged improper presidential activities and last minute negotiations over Britain's departure from the European Union. Today, the EURUSD market ascended into a cluster of potentially strong price/time barriers. This could certainly be another interim high leading to a continuation of the downtrend. Let's go through some of the key features of this chart with our standard series of Analysis Points (APs). AP1) The first indication that the market could be about to reverse is its proximity to the 0.5 retracement level. This comes from the Fibonacci levels, shown in yellow, which are obtained by dividing the range from the point labelled C and the point labelled D. The letters are in pink. AP2) Observe the downward sloping solid lines of red and cyan. They are the product of a pitchfork using points A,B and C in its construction. The market has been responsive to these trendlines , including the median line often enough to place some degree of confidence in them as price barriers. Notice that the cyan trendline extending from point C in the pitchfork coincided with the 0.5 level from AP1 at the current time in the yellow circle. Now we're starting to see some confluence in signals. AP3) This is a simple one. The green line which is generally falling throughout this chart shows a 100 day moving average. It too coincides with the barriers from AP1 and AP2 in the yellow circle. This moving average has potential to act as resistance as the market rises into it. It has provided support and resistance on a number of occasions in this chart. AP4) Finally, consider the stochastic oscillator shown at the bottom of the chart. It is set to highlight points where the oscillator exceeds a reading of 90 or is below a reading of 10. Today, it is at the highest level shown in this chart. The stochastic has only been close to this level twice before in this chart and on both occasions, the market's uptrend became exhausted and reversed. These are shown by the white dashed vertical lines. This cn be considered another bearish signal. There are a number of significant barriers for this market at the current price and time. Remember that this market is in a downtrend so the bearish bias of these signals coincide with the trend sentiment. Today's close price could be a significant indicator of how the market will respond to this cluster. However, be aware that Monday could open with a gap following what may be a shocking weekend for investors, particularly surrounding Brexit. If the market powers through this barrier and breaks to the upside, it could be a sign of bullish strength or of a market that is adjusting to new information. The next few days of price action will be very interesting.
Short
by Quantium_Research
The supreme test of pound, China's GDP & US retail salesYesterday Brexit turned a corner. The Prime Minister got the European Union to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement that the EU said to would never renegotiate. The British pound, as we expected, hit a fresh five-month high above 1.30. But after that, many buyers decided to take profits, resulting in a rebound of the pound more than 150 points down. The reason for taking profit was both about 1000 points per week, which, for example, could be earned in the GBPUSD, and fears that Brexit deal might fail again. Parliament is expected to sit on Saturday in what could be one of the most important Commons’ sessions of the entire Brexit process. Recall ones the agreement between the EU and Great Britain was already agreed, but the country's parliament voted “against”, as a result, Teresa May resigned and everything had to start all over again. If the story repeats, then the further development of events can be quite unpredictable. That is why many decided to take profits, and it is difficult to blame them. The fact is that the current version of the treaty doesn’t quite satisfy the Irish Democratic Party. And without their support, Johnson is unlikely to gain enough votes. As for our position, so far it is unchanged. We consider such bounces of 150 points as an excellent opportunity for purchasing. If the Parliament votes “for”, the pound will simply be doomed to further growth. It will be 200-300 points or 1000 is difficult to say, but pound purchases will live up to. If Boris fails that will certainly trigger massive sales in pound pairs. This option must be borne in mind and do not forget to put stops. You can safely sell the pound if he loses. The US, meanwhile, continues to show weak macroeconomic statistics. Yesterday, data on industrial production not only came out worse than forecasts below 0. The statistics on the real estate market did not please either. In general, we see an increasing number of reasons for the sale of the dollar. And today we continue to look for points to open short positions on the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Of the other statistical news, it is worth noting today's data on China's GDP. The indicator reached 6% (with a forecast 6.1%). Industrial production growth rates (went above forecasts) and retail sales (within the framework of forecasts, but in a good plus). In this light, our recommendation to buy safe-haven assets continues to be relevant. So today we continue to look for points for purchases of gold, as well as the Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Threats on the horizon, EU summit & hidden intervention of JapanToday we are talking about a possible demarche by the Irish Democratic Party and, accordingly, the text of the treaty that could be not approved. Therefore, the GBP movement stuck. On the one hand, growth needs to be continued, because on brink of Brexit deal, on the other hand, everyone suddenly realized that the deal still has to be approved by the Parliament of Great Britain. This has already happened with Theresa May so the growth of the pound has stopped so far. Also, a positive sign following the results of today's summit of the European Union may well overshadow the concerns for a while. So today we will continue to buy the pound, but with an eye on the outcome of the summit. Its failure will be a sentence for the pound (at least temporary) and it will be sold out. Another rather unexpected threat was the announcement by China that the country is ready for countermeasures if the US Congress provides legislative support to protesters in Hong Kong. Given the already difficult and still incomplete trade negotiations between the United States and China, this could become a stumbling block in resolving trade wars. In the light of such news and market concerns, today we will continue to look for points for safe-haven assets purchase (gold and the Japanese yen). As for the yen decline this week, Goldman Sachs explains its weaknesses with purchases of foreign assets by the Japanese State Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), which put pressure on its currency. But in general, this is a form of hidden currency interventions. Interventions by the Bank of Japan may provoke the United States to ask the Bank questions, but also it seems like there is no manipulation. Worth noting the weak data on US retail sales (-0.3% with the forecast + 0.3%). The dollar naturally was under pressure. Recall that we remain bears, so today we continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
SOXX ShortSOXX is on the verge of a major breakdown, much like the one that lead to the melt down in Q4 of last year (followed by a ~20% drop after the trend break). However, we are not there yet because we are resting on support. The main, long term pattern we are looking at is a bearish rising wedge. Within the wedge we also have a symmetrical triangle which was entered from above, which suggests - as a continuation pattern - that price will follow lower. Keep in mind there is also another green trend line underneath which acts as a type of extra confirmation which must be broken for a definitive sell signal. A sell signal will be confirmed once we have a daily close below those trends, and especially if we have a weekly close below. Given how resilient this market has been, it would not be unreasonable for SOXX to put in a marginal new high first, thus extending the negative divergences on the PPO and RSI before the grand finale to the downside. Since we are very oversold on the 1-hour candlesticks and have positive divergences building on the market futures (ES and NQ), we can at least expect a small thrust up to the resistance shown as the double green lines above. Either way, once we crack below, there will without question be volatility, maybe even a back-test of the broken wedge pattern, but ultimately I can foresee SOXX going down to the second yellow uptrend shown below. The lower yellow uptrend is one of the two supports I have drawn from the November 2008 lows, following the Great Recession. Both have acted as support and resistance many times, thus showing that both are important levels that price will abide by. Such a move would equate roughly to a 25% drop, depending from which point we break down from. For this trade, we will be using SOXS, a triple levered inverse ETF of SOXX. I would avoid the use of put options since that involves gauging the time frame in which this move occurs which only adds even more difficulty to an already complex setup. A suggested stop loss would be anywhere just above the top of the daily candle which confirms the initial break down.
NASDAQ:SOXXShort
by BigMouse777
1
ORBEX: Gold & Oil Slide on Earnings & IMF ReportsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #XAUUSD and #WTI Oil! Gold Lower on: - Brexit optimism despite running out of time - Banks reporting good Q3 results, and equities rising - US-Sino on a stalemate, allowing new-coming flows to take over Crude Oil Lower on: - IMF downgrading growth again, again - Dismissed excitement surrounding limited trade deal - Increasing demand for Natural Gas Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Orbex