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Tradewar

Reversal Structure on SPX futures by ThinkingAntsOkWe have been trying to catch this Bearish Movement since we start observing weakness signals of the Current bullish movement -We have an ascending channel (solid white lines) -The price tested 3 times the higher trendline without being able to surpass the zone -On MACD we can see a huge Divergence -We can see a second channel (the yellow one) which shows the luck of Bullish momentum, observe the slope of it compared to the white channel. -Making an analysis of the current situation of SPX we think the China-USA trade war, is about to make no progress, as we saw the same situations going on, in the past. That is aligned with our short Technical view. -For taking a trade we will wait for a Test of the yellow ascending channel + corrective structure there, if formed we will set our short positions with our main target on the Daily ascending channel of the bullish movement -We will make a new post if the structure that we are waiting is formed.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ThinkingAntsOk
Bears return for USDCHFDespite a strong bullish rally from USDCHF, in the past couple of weeks, bulls have not been able to supply a strong enough push to battle the bearish liquidity filled in at the 1.0000 psychological level. Now, after multiple retests of this important level and continuous rejection. Bears will now look to re enter the market and push USDCHF back down to at least a 50% retracement of the bullish rally. Amidst the chaos of the US China Trade war, traders are pulling out of the Dollar and investing into safe havens such as the Swiss franc and Gold. This weakening of the US Dollar is welcomed by Trump, who wants the US to be competitive with trade and exports in order to somewhat negate the damage of the tariffs imposed by China.
Short
by IllusiveShroud
USDCHF Likely To Test 0.97500 Level After Trendline Violation!Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Short
by FX618Analysis
UK Verdict, our recommendations and plansA new version of the Brexit deal has been agreed between the EU and the UK. The pound added about 500 points by the end of the week, bringing the account of its achievements to almost 1000 points. Recall that the UK and the EU, as we predicted, were able to agree on the terms of the deal at the last moment. As a result, at the EU summit on Thursday, this deal was approved by Europe. Another problem appeared - Johnson does not have a majority in Parliament. Accordingly, he had pretty high chances to repeat the fate of his predecessor, Theresa May, who also agreed on the deal, but could not pass it through Parliament. On Saturday, a vote took place, following which the British Parliament ordered Johnson to ask for a 3-month postpone so that parliamentarians could bring its legislation into line with the new realities. Johnson, who says more than once that there will be no postpone. Thus, he was put in a rather uncomfortable position. In general, there is a feeling that such a vote is rather an attempt to publicly humiliate Johnson, rather than a really necessary thing to do. Nevertheless, Johnson sent an unsigned letter to the European Union on Saturday requesting a Brexit delay. At the same time, he sent a couple of letters to the EU (which he did not forget to sign), in one of them he says that he is against the postponement. This week we will continue to look for points for its purchases because the Brexit issue has not been solved yet. Therefore there is still potential for the pound to grow. It is worth noting the weak statistics for the United States and China, which only confirmed what has been clear for a long time: trade war cause real harm to everyone. No breakthroughs were observed regarding the end of them. In this regard, we recommended focusing on finding entry points for the purchase of safe-haven assets. Given the state of financial markets at the beginning of the week, we see no reason to revise our recommendations and this week we will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen. As for the euro. Technically you need to buy EURUSD, we recommend doing it with an eye on Thursday. The ECB will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the Eurozone on Thursday. Most likely, there will be no changes, but given the general weakness of the Eurozone economy, we will not be surprised at the “dovish” comments from the Central Bank or even the expansion of measures to soften the monetary policy, which may well provoke euro sales. The oil market was relatively calm last week. And although the Middle East continues to resemble a powder keg (Turkish military operation in Syria, an attack on an Iranian tanker, etc.), so far the markets are trying to ignore it. Last week, reserves increased by almost 10 million barrels - the maximum value since April 2019. Saudi Aramco has postponed the launch of its long-awaited initial public offering on Sunday. And although there is no direct connection between this event and the state of the oil market, in general, this is a rather bearish signal. As for our position, it is generally unchanged, while oil (WTI brand) is higher than 51.20, we tend to buy oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Analysis USD/JPY Hello Trader, here are my analysis for USD/JPY for the upcoming week. As you can see the price bounces from the resistance level at round about 108.936. The price dropped down to 108.460 the next support level where it currently stands. As we are in a up move right now, I am expecting the continuing of the up move to the level 109.765. The second scenario is the continuing up move after reaching the support level at round about 108.093. If the price breaks through this level I am expecting a down move to 107.264 and continuing to 106.645. Feel free to comment and give me your ideas. Cheers and Happy Weekend! Lukas
Long
by LBAsset
Is EURUSD about to reverse??Today is important. So is tomorrow. This market has been in a steady downtrend for some time now, with regular oscillations indicative of healthy profit taking activity. Both the US and European markets are going through turbulent times manifesting in US/China trade talks, calls for impeachment over alleged improper presidential activities and last minute negotiations over Britain's departure from the European Union. Today, the EURUSD market ascended into a cluster of potentially strong price/time barriers. This could certainly be another interim high leading to a continuation of the downtrend. Let's go through some of the key features of this chart with our standard series of Analysis Points (APs). AP1) The first indication that the market could be about to reverse is its proximity to the 0.5 retracement level. This comes from the Fibonacci levels, shown in yellow, which are obtained by dividing the range from the point labelled C and the point labelled D. The letters are in pink. AP2) Observe the downward sloping solid lines of red and cyan. They are the product of a pitchfork using points A,B and C in its construction. The market has been responsive to these trendlines , including the median line often enough to place some degree of confidence in them as price barriers. Notice that the cyan trendline extending from point C in the pitchfork coincided with the 0.5 level from AP1 at the current time in the yellow circle. Now we're starting to see some confluence in signals. AP3) This is a simple one. The green line which is generally falling throughout this chart shows a 100 day moving average. It too coincides with the barriers from AP1 and AP2 in the yellow circle. This moving average has potential to act as resistance as the market rises into it. It has provided support and resistance on a number of occasions in this chart. AP4) Finally, consider the stochastic oscillator shown at the bottom of the chart. It is set to highlight points where the oscillator exceeds a reading of 90 or is below a reading of 10. Today, it is at the highest level shown in this chart. The stochastic has only been close to this level twice before in this chart and on both occasions, the market's uptrend became exhausted and reversed. These are shown by the white dashed vertical lines. This cn be considered another bearish signal. There are a number of significant barriers for this market at the current price and time. Remember that this market is in a downtrend so the bearish bias of these signals coincide with the trend sentiment. Today's close price could be a significant indicator of how the market will respond to this cluster. However, be aware that Monday could open with a gap following what may be a shocking weekend for investors, particularly surrounding Brexit. If the market powers through this barrier and breaks to the upside, it could be a sign of bullish strength or of a market that is adjusting to new information. The next few days of price action will be very interesting.
Short
by Quantium_Research
The supreme test of pound, China's GDP & US retail salesYesterday Brexit turned a corner. The Prime Minister got the European Union to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement that the EU said to would never renegotiate. The British pound, as we expected, hit a fresh five-month high above 1.30. But after that, many buyers decided to take profits, resulting in a rebound of the pound more than 150 points down. The reason for taking profit was both about 1000 points per week, which, for example, could be earned in the GBPUSD, and fears that Brexit deal might fail again. Parliament is expected to sit on Saturday in what could be one of the most important Commons’ sessions of the entire Brexit process. Recall ones the agreement between the EU and Great Britain was already agreed, but the country's parliament voted “against”, as a result, Teresa May resigned and everything had to start all over again. If the story repeats, then the further development of events can be quite unpredictable. That is why many decided to take profits, and it is difficult to blame them. The fact is that the current version of the treaty doesn’t quite satisfy the Irish Democratic Party. And without their support, Johnson is unlikely to gain enough votes. As for our position, so far it is unchanged. We consider such bounces of 150 points as an excellent opportunity for purchasing. If the Parliament votes “for”, the pound will simply be doomed to further growth. It will be 200-300 points or 1000 is difficult to say, but pound purchases will live up to. If Boris fails that will certainly trigger massive sales in pound pairs. This option must be borne in mind and do not forget to put stops. You can safely sell the pound if he loses. The US, meanwhile, continues to show weak macroeconomic statistics. Yesterday, data on industrial production not only came out worse than forecasts below 0. The statistics on the real estate market did not please either. In general, we see an increasing number of reasons for the sale of the dollar. And today we continue to look for points to open short positions on the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Of the other statistical news, it is worth noting today's data on China's GDP. The indicator reached 6% (with a forecast 6.1%). Industrial production growth rates (went above forecasts) and retail sales (within the framework of forecasts, but in a good plus). In this light, our recommendation to buy safe-haven assets continues to be relevant. So today we continue to look for points for purchases of gold, as well as the Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Threats on the horizon, EU summit & hidden intervention of JapanToday we are talking about a possible demarche by the Irish Democratic Party and, accordingly, the text of the treaty that could be not approved. Therefore, the GBP movement stuck. On the one hand, growth needs to be continued, because on brink of Brexit deal, on the other hand, everyone suddenly realized that the deal still has to be approved by the Parliament of Great Britain. This has already happened with Theresa May so the growth of the pound has stopped so far. Also, a positive sign following the results of today's summit of the European Union may well overshadow the concerns for a while. So today we will continue to buy the pound, but with an eye on the outcome of the summit. Its failure will be a sentence for the pound (at least temporary) and it will be sold out. Another rather unexpected threat was the announcement by China that the country is ready for countermeasures if the US Congress provides legislative support to protesters in Hong Kong. Given the already difficult and still incomplete trade negotiations between the United States and China, this could become a stumbling block in resolving trade wars. In the light of such news and market concerns, today we will continue to look for points for safe-haven assets purchase (gold and the Japanese yen). As for the yen decline this week, Goldman Sachs explains its weaknesses with purchases of foreign assets by the Japanese State Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), which put pressure on its currency. But in general, this is a form of hidden currency interventions. Interventions by the Bank of Japan may provoke the United States to ask the Bank questions, but also it seems like there is no manipulation. Worth noting the weak data on US retail sales (-0.3% with the forecast + 0.3%). The dollar naturally was under pressure. Recall that we remain bears, so today we continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
SOXX ShortSOXX is on the verge of a major breakdown, much like the one that lead to the melt down in Q4 of last year (followed by a ~20% drop after the trend break). However, we are not there yet because we are resting on support. The main, long term pattern we are looking at is a bearish rising wedge. Within the wedge we also have a symmetrical triangle which was entered from above, which suggests - as a continuation pattern - that price will follow lower. Keep in mind there is also another green trend line underneath which acts as a type of extra confirmation which must be broken for a definitive sell signal. A sell signal will be confirmed once we have a daily close below those trends, and especially if we have a weekly close below. Given how resilient this market has been, it would not be unreasonable for SOXX to put in a marginal new high first, thus extending the negative divergences on the PPO and RSI before the grand finale to the downside. Since we are very oversold on the 1-hour candlesticks and have positive divergences building on the market futures (ES and NQ), we can at least expect a small thrust up to the resistance shown as the double green lines above. Either way, once we crack below, there will without question be volatility, maybe even a back-test of the broken wedge pattern, but ultimately I can foresee SOXX going down to the second yellow uptrend shown below. The lower yellow uptrend is one of the two supports I have drawn from the November 2008 lows, following the Great Recession. Both have acted as support and resistance many times, thus showing that both are important levels that price will abide by. Such a move would equate roughly to a 25% drop, depending from which point we break down from. For this trade, we will be using SOXS, a triple levered inverse ETF of SOXX. I would avoid the use of put options since that involves gauging the time frame in which this move occurs which only adds even more difficulty to an already complex setup. A suggested stop loss would be anywhere just above the top of the daily candle which confirms the initial break down.
NASDAQ:SOXXShort
by BigMouse777
1
ORBEX: Gold & Oil Slide on Earnings & IMF ReportsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #XAUUSD and #WTI Oil! Gold Lower on: - Brexit optimism despite running out of time - Banks reporting good Q3 results, and equities rising - US-Sino on a stalemate, allowing new-coming flows to take over Crude Oil Lower on: - IMF downgrading growth again, again - Dismissed excitement surrounding limited trade deal - Increasing demand for Natural Gas Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Orbex
ORBEX: GBPUSD, AUDUSD: Trade And Brexit Deals Fall Short!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD and #AUDUSD Pound Lower on: - Highly complex proposal for a double customs system - Nothing substantial or "workable" submitted to EU Aussie Lower on: - Tradewar shift, again, as tariffs part of the limited deal - Phase one not documented, China needs confirmations Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
There is no reason to grow | Short S&P 500The announced program of liquidity support in the market from the Fed was not reflected by the growth of the index. In advance of trade negotiations, China announced that it would not raise important issues during the discussions and would leave the United States ahead of schedule. This suggests that negotiations are unlikely to succeed. And the negative information on the market may force the index to decline. The upcoming US rate cut is already in price. Which means that the fact of lowering itself will not give a boost. Short S & P500 medium-term idea. Goals three. If the index grows in short zone, you can get the position. There is no stop-loss, as there are possible shake out/ The position can be modified.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by YuraM
Pound records, trade war and attack on Iranian tankerThe United States and China negotiation on trade war took place last week. In just two days by 500 points, the GBP showed a sharp growth regarding Brexit news. Actually, we have been waiting for this for quite some time and note that this growth is not limited. This week, EU summit on Brexit will be held on Thursday. With the positive outcome, the pound may well get another five hundred growth points in the asset. But let's not get ahead: events are still in the process, and the pound remains very vulnerable to negative news. After all, there are no real facts of the arrangements between Johnson and the Irish Prime Minister exist. So any change in negotiation may radically change market sentiment. Our position on the pound remains unchanged. We were sure that there would be no way out without a deal, and we are sure of it. And this is an occasion for buying the pound, even after such impressive growth. Negotiations between the USA and China. According to the current situation, the United States agreed to suspend another increase in tariffs on Chinese goods which is expected to be realized this week. The parties announced progress in the negotiations but did not work out any final agreement. So actually it is a positive news global economy, but again the situation is very precarious. According to Trump, it may take up to five weeks to prepare a final agreement. He acknowledged that the deal could break, but expressed hope that this would not happen. We will wait for a while with gold purchases, but sales of the USDJPY pair look very promising. We place stops above 108.90, profits 106.8 and below. Moreover, the Middle East is again troubled. At the end of the week, the Oil market strengthened. Recall, we recommended buying it in the area of 52 (WTI brand). The reason for the active trading on Friday was information about a missile attack on Iran’s oil tanker. Iran has already stated that the rocket flew in from Saudi Arabia. Given that before this, the Saudis accused Iran of attacking their oil facilities, the conclusions of Iran seem generally logical. We will remind, earlier Saudi Arabia pretended that the incident has been settled, and they will not aggravate the situation and try to take revenge on Iran. Therefore, this week we will continue to recommend oil purchases. Moreover, the goals that we announced last week for purchases have not been achieved yet. More precisely partially achieved (recall, we predicted $ 55- $ 56). Today is a day off in a number of countries, including the United States. Given the extremely unstable news background, this is fraught with explosions of volatility, so today you need to trade with extreme caution.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Volatility UP...qtr 3 ER's have extra tariff expsorue What a roller coaster its been for equity indices globally the past two weeks. Bad data continued to trickle out from the US this month. September's ISM was the worst print in a decade (2008) signaling a possible recession in US manufacturing. However ADP employment and consumer sentiment prints are still holding strong. These are significant as consumerism is the only thing keeping this economy chugging along. We got some relief on the latter end of the week as Trump hinted of a partial trade deal which sent markets in a frenzy. Buying on Friday morning was aggressive with a substantial gap up due to a strong European session (DAX in particular) and open drive to monthly highs in anticipation of a "mini deal" announcement later that afternoon. However the deal was not what wall street was hoping for. It did not clear the newly proposed tariffs simply delaying the next round till December. It gives Trump some time to make more progress with Xi in Chile next month but these tariffs are incredibly important as they would effect the rest of Chinese goods in the US markets. They would affect consumers more than any of the existing tariffs which is why the sell off was so intense into Fridays close. Next week starts quarter 3 earnings report season. This quarter is of particular interest because they are going to be the first ER's that will be effected by the ramp up in the trade war that started in May. EPS guidance has been continuously lowered throughout the year so any misses will hold extra merit. SPX put's are at an all time premium for the year and with the fundamentals showing more uncertainty it looks like their big price tag is warranted. VIX ETP's exploded with buy side volume end of day Friday and have been trading in an elevated range between the 15/20 mark the past several sessions. Be careful buying here before the big names have reported earnings. Stay safe and hedge accordingly!
TVC:SPXShort
by CheersOrTears
NZDUSD Medium-Term SellChaos is cheap but plans are priceless. This is a wild month for fundamental and geopolitical events. No setups are safe this month, mine included. But that doesn't mean you opt-out of the market. As with my prior setups, exhaustion occurs during a surprise data miss or political event. You have to pay attention to real-time news if you want to win at this game in the long-run. Event Risk: Very High Sequence Risk: Low ATR: Good My published setups have made 100s of pips in the last few weeks, with an over 80% hit rate. I publish 3-4 charts a week and will continue doing so for the next 7 months at least. Follow me, and peer into the profitable and retail undervalued world of intra-day and intra-week trading. You can use my medium-term opportunities and fit them into your long-term trading setups/positions to get comfortable. (The PoC sinewave represents a safe return point for price action)
Short
by CountofCoins