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Tradewar

ORBEX: GBPUSD, AUDUSD: Trade And Brexit Deals Fall Short!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD and #AUDUSD Pound Lower on: - Highly complex proposal for a double customs system - Nothing substantial or "workable" submitted to EU Aussie Lower on: - Tradewar shift, again, as tariffs part of the limited deal - Phase one not documented, China needs confirmations Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
There is no reason to grow | Short S&P 500The announced program of liquidity support in the market from the Fed was not reflected by the growth of the index. In advance of trade negotiations, China announced that it would not raise important issues during the discussions and would leave the United States ahead of schedule. This suggests that negotiations are unlikely to succeed. And the negative information on the market may force the index to decline. The upcoming US rate cut is already in price. Which means that the fact of lowering itself will not give a boost. Short S & P500 medium-term idea. Goals three. If the index grows in short zone, you can get the position. There is no stop-loss, as there are possible shake out/ The position can be modified.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by YuraM
Pound records, trade war and attack on Iranian tankerThe United States and China negotiation on trade war took place last week. In just two days by 500 points, the GBP showed a sharp growth regarding Brexit news. Actually, we have been waiting for this for quite some time and note that this growth is not limited. This week, EU summit on Brexit will be held on Thursday. With the positive outcome, the pound may well get another five hundred growth points in the asset. But let's not get ahead: events are still in the process, and the pound remains very vulnerable to negative news. After all, there are no real facts of the arrangements between Johnson and the Irish Prime Minister exist. So any change in negotiation may radically change market sentiment. Our position on the pound remains unchanged. We were sure that there would be no way out without a deal, and we are sure of it. And this is an occasion for buying the pound, even after such impressive growth. Negotiations between the USA and China. According to the current situation, the United States agreed to suspend another increase in tariffs on Chinese goods which is expected to be realized this week. The parties announced progress in the negotiations but did not work out any final agreement. So actually it is a positive news global economy, but again the situation is very precarious. According to Trump, it may take up to five weeks to prepare a final agreement. He acknowledged that the deal could break, but expressed hope that this would not happen. We will wait for a while with gold purchases, but sales of the USDJPY pair look very promising. We place stops above 108.90, profits 106.8 and below. Moreover, the Middle East is again troubled. At the end of the week, the Oil market strengthened. Recall, we recommended buying it in the area of 52 (WTI brand). The reason for the active trading on Friday was information about a missile attack on Iran’s oil tanker. Iran has already stated that the rocket flew in from Saudi Arabia. Given that before this, the Saudis accused Iran of attacking their oil facilities, the conclusions of Iran seem generally logical. We will remind, earlier Saudi Arabia pretended that the incident has been settled, and they will not aggravate the situation and try to take revenge on Iran. Therefore, this week we will continue to recommend oil purchases. Moreover, the goals that we announced last week for purchases have not been achieved yet. More precisely partially achieved (recall, we predicted $ 55- $ 56). Today is a day off in a number of countries, including the United States. Given the extremely unstable news background, this is fraught with explosions of volatility, so today you need to trade with extreme caution.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Volatility UP...qtr 3 ER's have extra tariff expsorue What a roller coaster its been for equity indices globally the past two weeks. Bad data continued to trickle out from the US this month. September's ISM was the worst print in a decade (2008) signaling a possible recession in US manufacturing. However ADP employment and consumer sentiment prints are still holding strong. These are significant as consumerism is the only thing keeping this economy chugging along. We got some relief on the latter end of the week as Trump hinted of a partial trade deal which sent markets in a frenzy. Buying on Friday morning was aggressive with a substantial gap up due to a strong European session (DAX in particular) and open drive to monthly highs in anticipation of a "mini deal" announcement later that afternoon. However the deal was not what wall street was hoping for. It did not clear the newly proposed tariffs simply delaying the next round till December. It gives Trump some time to make more progress with Xi in Chile next month but these tariffs are incredibly important as they would effect the rest of Chinese goods in the US markets. They would affect consumers more than any of the existing tariffs which is why the sell off was so intense into Fridays close. Next week starts quarter 3 earnings report season. This quarter is of particular interest because they are going to be the first ER's that will be effected by the ramp up in the trade war that started in May. EPS guidance has been continuously lowered throughout the year so any misses will hold extra merit. SPX put's are at an all time premium for the year and with the fundamentals showing more uncertainty it looks like their big price tag is warranted. VIX ETP's exploded with buy side volume end of day Friday and have been trading in an elevated range between the 15/20 mark the past several sessions. Be careful buying here before the big names have reported earnings. Stay safe and hedge accordingly!
TVC:SPXShort
by CheersOrTears
NZDUSD Medium-Term SellChaos is cheap but plans are priceless. This is a wild month for fundamental and geopolitical events. No setups are safe this month, mine included. But that doesn't mean you opt-out of the market. As with my prior setups, exhaustion occurs during a surprise data miss or political event. You have to pay attention to real-time news if you want to win at this game in the long-run. Event Risk: Very High Sequence Risk: Low ATR: Good My published setups have made 100s of pips in the last few weeks, with an over 80% hit rate. I publish 3-4 charts a week and will continue doing so for the next 7 months at least. Follow me, and peer into the profitable and retail undervalued world of intra-day and intra-week trading. You can use my medium-term opportunities and fit them into your long-term trading setups/positions to get comfortable. (The PoC sinewave represents a safe return point for price action)
Short
by CountofCoins
A partial war-trade deal? / Semiconductors +Trump has said many times before, he did not want a "partial" trade deal. There seems to be real volume and buying, sending the whole market to highs. There is a possibility that this "partial deal" is just a delay of tariffs (october 15th, and December?) and buying of agricultural products (soybeam, pork). Which we have seen before, unfortunately, to mean nothing. ------ Have a great long weekend. Trading starts Tuesday because of Columbus day on Monday 14th.
NASDAQ:SOXX
by dorfmanmaster
Brexit breakthrough and markets bet on the breakthrough in US-ChThere were no major breakthroughs at the meeting between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Taoiseach Leo Varadkar over the Irish border backstop. Recall that today it is the main sticking point that stops signing an agreement with the EU. As a result, the GBPUSD soared more than 250 points. However, this is not the end so you should not relax. Next week, the EU summit will take place, from which markets are waiting for a final decision on Brexit. Current options for the development of events include an agreement with the UK, another delay or exit without a deal. We have been supporting pound purchases for a long time since we believe in Brexit deal. Negotiations between the USA and China continued to be the hottest one. Trump said the talks went well. Today, Trump will host Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, in the White House, so surges in volatility in the financial markets are still likely. The markets seemed to be imbued with Trump's confidence, as demand for the Chinese yuan in the options market sharply increased (over the past 24 hours, traders bought two-month options in the dollar/yuan with a strike at 6.95 for $ 650 million). That is, traders are trying to prepare for the success of the negotiations and are waiting for the renminbi to strengthen. trading decisions have to be made with an eye to a possible change in the existing fundamental background. Regarding our position on safe-haven assets, today we will not recommend buying gold or the Japanese yen. The situation is too unpredictable, and the risks are too high. Our recommendation for today is the adaption to any negotiation outcome. The success of negotiations between the United States and China, in theory, will be accompanied by haven assets sales. Accordingly, you can act respectively, with that. Yesterday, pound dynamics showed that even a late call could bring significant profits. If negotiations fail, you can act respectively purchasing gold and the Japanese yen. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, Employment Change in Canada is what we are interested in. So today is an interesting day to work the Canadian dollar.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: GBPUSD, USDCAD: Surprise on the US-Sino and Brexix FrontsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSDand #USDCAD FX Majors! GBPUSD records best day in months - Johnson-Varadkar see "pathway to deal" by end of October - Despite GDP and MAnufacturing data disappointed USDCAD down on tradewr optimism - Trump changed mind and now is open to a partial deal - Willing to and will meet He on Friday to resume talks - Cad stronger as oil supported by positive headlines (China is big oil importer) Looking forward to Canada's employment report! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Why partial trade agreement won't help China in a long/termSince the trade war started, investors were anxious to see an agreement between USA and China. But there is one huge problem, if we analyze SHCOMP behavior since 2015.mid, it will become quite obvious that China has overdebt problems. Earleir this year Chienesee Central Bank had to bail out at least 3 major banks.. Since 2018 major newspapers were publishing articles about upcoming recession in china. In order to prevent this from happening, they began injecting billions of dollars in its economy. However, the results were minimum, meaning that collapse is not so far. Eventually chinese debt bubble will burst and it will affect nmot only the asia/pacific region but the world's economy. All i say is that in a short term this tradeagreement may help chinese markets but there are problems to be solved on internal level..
SShort
by Market_Referee
ORBEX: GBPCHF, AUDJPY - Tradetalk & Brexit Signals Mixed! In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #gbpchf and #audjpy minors! Both pairs are showing an identical pattern and are indeed influenced by: AUDJPY - Tradewar tensions but latest from positive developments on the back of a potential partial deal Chinese are willing to do - Positive Home Loans in AU and negative BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index figures GBPCHF - Blury Brexit developments with the risk of an election following an extension increasing - UK-EU talks not looking good despite EU announcing otherwise Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Nothing has changed! All eyes on trade meetings.Let me clear some things up: I am not a day trader. So, my charts are what I see from a swing trading perspective. I look for opportunities that might not play out today, tomorrow, or even next week. Rather, I look for opportunities that I think might play out anywhere from today to a month (or a little more) from now. Not long term, but short to mid-term... I'm a swing trader. Please keep that in mind when you view my charts. As always, I appreciate each and every comment and follower! Good luck to all, and may we ALL profit!! YouTube: Dumb Money Trader www.dumbmoneytrader.com www.twitter.com www.facebook.com
AMEX:SPYLong
by Bankuur
5
On current market fears, Brexit failure and oil purchasesThis week, markets have completely focused on the negotiation process between the US and China. We will closely monitor as well as the dynamics of safe-haven assets, which fully correlates with a market statement regarding the outcome of the negotiations. It is already obvious that the success of negotiations would affect gold - a decline in the are of 1420 +/- seems very likely. But the failure in the negotiations process with a high probability will end with a re-test of the highs of the beginning of September, that is, 1550. It is difficult to say which variant is more likely. Yesterday, the markets supported the second one. This was evidenced by the dynamics of safe-haven assets, the VIX Fear Index and the general news background - the parties took quite similar positions and whether they can get a compromise is not yet clear. This refers to the news that the US blacklisted 8 Chinese companies, and China in response promised to take the same measures. In general, not the best background for successful negotiations. Total: the situation is developing, but it is extremely favourable for trade in gold and the Japanese yen. Patience and approach from good points practically guarantee earnings. As for the direction, we tend to buy both gold and the Japanese yen. But once again we note: purchases are relevant in the absence of fundamental contraindications. If there is news of a breakthrough in negotiations appears, purchases should be postponed at least until the details are clarified. In addition to the United States and China, the EU and the United Kingdom exchange mutual claims. The negotiation process is also far from a successful end and there is a chance that it would lead to paralysis. Johnson is infuriating the EU. And his last call Merkel, for many created the feeling that there would be no deal. But we continue to believe in common sense and the victory of global economic interests over local personal ambitions. Also, Johnson's failure to make a deal does not mean an automatic exit without a deal. Recall, Parliament obligated him to ask for a postponement if the deal was not agreed before October 17. So the purchase of the pound after yesterday did not become hopeless. Rather the magnitude of risks per position decreased, while profits increased. In the oil market, WTI prices meanwhile have come to basic support around 51.20. Although we are medium-term oil bears, buying with current prices seems like a good deal. The stops - below 51, but the profit set up in the area of 56 (if the correction begins, then this will be its minimum goal). But again, we’ll warn you f breakdown of negotiations between the US and China could hit oil value - in this case, support 51.20 will not stand. So we are acting with an eye on the news background.
Short
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: Gold, Oil: Affected by Trump, BoJo, Powell!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #wti #oil and #gold Gold and Oil affected by (what moves gold up, weakens oil): - Tradewar tensions after Trump imposed visa restrictions to Chinese officials - A worsening growth outlook for global economies - Potential early election in the UK as hopes of Oct resolution fade away - Fed's short-term bond purchase expansion to credit banks (not QE) Oil also affected by: - Poor API but was offset by Equador disruptions - Tradewar anxiety ahead f Thursday talk resumption Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Orbex