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Tradewar

DXY, SPX: Hang on Fed & GeopoliticsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse DXY and SXP! Equities look bullish and the US index bearish, from a technical perspective. On the (geo)-political front their prices are and could remain being affected by: - A somewhat dovish?! Fed - BoE and Brexit (BoJo visits EU today for talks!) - SA attack and expectations on reduced oil production - Weakening Chinese data - US-Sino tradewar optimism On the other hand, don't forget that policy-pessimism is going to matter most?! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Orbex
SPY - Daily - Bearish engulfing stick after dojiNotice the bearish engulfing candlestick today, after the doji yesterday? I believe that means we are going back down to retest the green line I drew in the 295 area. We just made new highs, but could not close above the highest close level set in July. I do not believe this sell-off will be anything more than simple profit taking after this nice rip up after breaking through consolidation. More or less, I think this will be just a breather ... UNLESS, negative trade war news comes out. As always, the trade war is determining the technicals right now. If negative news comes out between now and the new round of talks in October, I think we will bust through that green line and make a move to test a double top pattern. If that happens, look out below! I'm overall bullish based on technicals, but bearish to start next week. I positioned my account appropriately yesterday and today to survive the profit taking.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Bankuur
1
CRUDE OIL & USD Weakness Might Send LOONIE Towards 1.29500!INSTANT ENTRY AT AROUND: 1.31800 LEVEL POSITION TYPE: SHORT STOP LOSS: 1.34200 TAKE PROFIT: 1.29500 RR: 1:1 SHALL THERE BE ANY UPDATES I WILL UPDATE THEM IN THE THREAD. BELOW YOU CAN FIND THE EXPLANATION BEHIND THIS TRADE SETUP The main chart shows the price confined in a upward slopping channel on the weekly TF which has been respected on multiple occasions. At the moment we could see that the weekly candle not only breached the lower end of the channel but also close below the crucial dynamic support of the weekly 50 EMA!. This suggests that the price is ready to potentially head down towards the 1.29500 level where another concrete upward trendline is presents. Furthermore, the sanctions imposed by U.S on iran and further ongoing dispute has already made WTI price rise higher. Further tensions are to be expected in the future which would potentially make WTI jump higher. CAD is strongly correlated with OIL prices and any move in the OIL prices would move the LOONIE in the same direction. Additionally The USD weakness will likely gather pace in the coming weeks as prospect on economic slowdown and rate cut has hit the greenback very bad. Therefore we have at the moment both technical and fundamental picture on our sides. as the days go we will see the news develop further and see the a clear picture.
Short
by FX618Analysis
XAU/USD GOLD LONG H4,D1 12.9.2019Technical standing Gold is in strong uptrend since breaking 6 years high in mid-June. Currently gold is in correction phase. On the H4 chart, I marked my support zone from 1480 to 1498. In today`s trading sessions we could see Gold going up too 1524 and immediaetly retracing down to 1498. Now Gold is currently sitting on 1498, top of my support zone which is lined up with trendline as you can see on given example. In further days I will be waiting for a price action signal in my support area to take gold up to 1543-1555 where I marked resistance area. If resistance area will be broken I am expecting to see Gold around 1600. Fundamental view Next week we expect a rate cut from FED for quater basis points, which will have a big impact on gold. As things around Brexit standing now Great Britain and EU have no deal, so Great Britain could exit from EU without deal, so I believe this scenario will help push the Gold price up. The last big global event that are correlated whit Gold is US-China Trade war on tariffs. With FED rate cut, so much indecisiveness with Brexit, US-China trade war and upcoming Global economic crisis I believe Gold will continue his uptrend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NecP
Another trade war cycle almost completeAfter news broke that Trump had secured another China trade meeting for early October and solid ADP numbers we broke the range we traded in for August. Non farm payrolls was a miss but not bad enough to fall back into range. Fed Chair Powell's comments shortly after the non farm payroll miss eased concerns and setup another potential rate cut in two weeks time. Assuming CPI and PPI aren't shockingly bad I except a slow grind up heading into the FoMC meeting with expectations of rate cuts off-setting any small misses on data. The market is still pricing in a cut of 50/75 bps which is once again more than what we will probably get. Another 25 bps cut seems more likely. I am biased long on a very short term basis. Only bullish until FoMC, possibly until next trade talks in Oct as my best case scenario. I think at that point we will rinse and repeat the cycle. If we look at the VIX we've been in decline all week so its good to see the put buying frenzy subside. The front end contango is looking strong so we should see VIX ETP's drop off assuming we don't get anymore data hiccups this week. Once again I am technically bullish in this very moment, but unless we get a combination of strong data, substantial rate cut relief, and a radical reversal on trade talks I think any attempt at new highs will be short lived. Last weeks data was mixed and its likely we will see that trend continue. youtu.be
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by CheersOrTears
Is oil buying the hype around positive trade talks?A couple weeks ago I published this descending triangle. Today, I'm republishing the same triangle, but this time with some kickers... Fundamentally, oil doesn't seem to be buying the hype surrounding all this "good" news about trade talks resuming in October. Yesterday, oil shot up right at triangle resistance, then came right back down for a bearish pin bar (even though candle stayed green). Today, the candle is red, but making a bullish pin bar. What does oil want to do? This commodity is highly sensitive to world economic conditions, currency valuation, and regulatory issues. However, right now the China/USA trade war is affecting oil prices the most. Supply and demand!! The 2 largest economies in the world are caught up in a tit-for-tat tariff ridden trade war. This does not bode well for oil - if the 2 largest economies slow their business down with each other due to tariffs, then less oil (fuel) will be needed to transport goods... ships, trucks, trains, etc... Not too mention, there was already concerns over too much oil supply; this trade war, in theory, increases that oil supply because not as much will be needed. I'm going to stay neutral on oil until after the next round of trade talks in October. Then I will re-evaluate.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Bankuur
NFP, pound growth and goldEverything develops according to the scenario described earlier - Johnson’s defeat in Parliament is an occasion for the pound growth and its purchases. However, it’s too early to relax. Yes, the pound still has the opportunity to grow for not just a hundred points, but a thousand or even more. The key threat to the pound has not disappeared yet. So you should trade cautiously. There is every chance that the ban on exiting without a deal will acquire the status of the law, which means Johnson will not be able to do anything. Even his brother Joe denied Johnson. So the streak of setbacks for the new prime minister is going on. But Johnson's failure is the success of the pound. US employment data from ADP surprised us. + 195 000 with a forecast +148 000. And the data surprised us because recently the US economy has been showing more and more disturbing messages such as GDP data for the second quarter, and business activity indices, some even went below 50. So, despite yesterday's figures from ADP, we are rather sceptical about official statistics on the US labor market. In general, today's data is more important than ever. On the one hand, weak figures will confirm investors' concerns that the US economy is losing its confidence more rapidly. And on the other hand, it will become a signal fo the Fed that it is necessary to do something. That is, the fate of the rate cut may not be decided on September 18 at the FOMC meeting, but today. Therefore the dollar may receive a double hit, from which it will not be able to recover for a long time. That is why today we recommend selling the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. But we need weak NFPs for that. As for the trade war. The US and China negotiations were postponed. Now the date sounds like “early October.” That is, the confrontation will continue in September. So do not forget to buy gold.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Bullish breakout... normally...Under normal market conditions, this pennant break-out would be considered very bullish. If this was a normal market, I would now think this would head up to at least retest the all-time highs. However, this is not a normal market - it is news driven in my opinion. News broke last night that China and the USA would resume talks in October. The market loved this, and futures rose sharply. But, have talks ever stopped in the last year and a half? No, they haven't. The two countries have continued negotiations this entire time... but nobody seems to be thinking of that today. This to me is proof of a news driven market. Therefore, break-outs like this one cannot be trusted. Just my opinion...
AMEX:SPY
by Bankuur
3
Parliament vs. Johnson, China vs. USA, AUDJPY GBP updated its lowest level since 2016 been in a pair with USD, but after soared at 100+ points for half an hour. The reasons for these movements we announced yesterday - the opposition of the British Parliament and Prime Minister Boris Johnson. We briefly outline the events of yesterday. A group of deputies is planning to initiate a bill where Boris Johnson will have to ask for another Brexit suspension if he can not conclude a new deal with Europe. Expectedly, Johnson he took it hard, saying that he would rather hold an early election than allow maltreat him. So far, the alignment of forces in the Parliament was not in Johnson's favor (about 20 people from his party went against Johnson), which is good for the pound. Note that although there is no certainty yet. If events continue to develop similarly, its further decline, for example with the dollar, to the area of 1.10 paired can be put aside for now. There are no changes in the trade war development. China’s ceasefire proposal (delay the introduction of tariffs) was rejected by the United States. At the same time, there is no concrete start date for the negotiation process. So our recommendations on the sale of safe haven assets remain relevant. Moreover, global production is slowing down. The PMI indices around the world are showing that. The eurozone as a whole, Germany in particular and the UK - everywhere indices went below 50, which indicates a decrease in business activity in the manufacturing sector. Well, the news on business activity in the manufacturing sector in the USA disappointed the markets. The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector (ISM Manufacturing) fell below 50 the same as in 2016. The consequences of the trade war are becoming more and more obvious. Hurricane Dorian is weakening. So the United States may well get off with slap on the wrist. Although, according to UBS Group estimates, even such a good end will cost about $ 25 billion - the result of the massive flights cancellation and other consequences of the hurricane. And finally, we note that the Reserve Bank of Australia left the rate unchanged yesterday. The fact of not cutting rates can be considered as a positive for the Australian dollar, which triggered its growth yesterday. However, in the light of the ongoing trade war, we would not have rushed to buy it in a hurry. However if China and the United States close on the agreement in September, then it is the Australian dollar that could be stronger than others. At the same time, we agree with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which recommends buying the Australian dollar not paired with the US dollar, but paired with the yen. Their logic is generally understandable - the end of the trade war, on the one hand, will provoke demand for commodity currencies, which include the Australian dollar, and on the other hand will lead to a sharp drop in demand for safe-haven assets, which include the Japanese yen. That is, the AUDJPY pair will receive a double reason for growth. So we recommend our readers to follow the development of events and keep in mind this deal (purchase AUDJPY) - potentially we are talking about 600-800 points of profit.
Long
by Trade24Fx
RBNZ Rate Cut Outlook Might Send KIWI Lower VS YEN!Have a look at the main chart for the NZDJPY weekly TF. The horizontal lines represent concrete support and resistance levels taken from the Monthly TF. The price has already pierced the 69.000 level and is possibly headed towards the next support that is present at the 63.000 level. Furthermore, there is a neat descending channel on the weekly charts which adds further confluence towards the declining of the price. the above snapshot shows the monthly TF of NZDJPY. As seen, the horizontal lines represent the nearby support and resistance levels and currently the 69.000 level was violated as the monthly candle closed below it convincingly. The next support lies at 63.000 level where is the price will likely be headed. Fundamentally, The tradewar has affected kiwi to great extent and the RBNZ might cut the rates a further two times before 2020 to support the economy and slowdown. With the trade deal no where in sight, the safehaven demand for JPY will be high in such RISK OFF environment. Therefore such a strong YEN and a weak KIWI is a good combination to trade and take this PAIR SHORT. At the moment the USD strength is unprecedented and i am evaluating on what pair to take SHORT as taking both would double the risk exposure. currently i am waiting for the NZD to retrace slightly as its deeply oversold after dropping so much in the last month. A slight retracement would enhance our Risk to reward ratio and widen our stop loss. Once the price has retraced slightly i will post the trade details in a new post. i am not sure what would it be NZDJPY or NZDUSD.
Short
by FX618Analysis
Hurricane Dorian, Trump's new tariffs & Brexit Queen approves PM`s plan. Parliament is to be suspended for five weeks ahead of 31 October, the day the UK is due to leave the EU that was perhaps, the main event. This event is unusual: the prime minister, who was not chosen, and the Queen, who was not chosen as well, blocked the work of epy supreme body, which directly selected by people and represents their interests. So we closely monitor event development in Britain. This week we will see the continuation of an exciting series from the UK. On Tuesday, parliament will return from the summer break and will work for only a week before suspending its work, according to the Queen’s decree. A hurricane of events that is what we all are waiting for. Events are becoming less predictable and ever larger in terms of consequences. One of the main victims, well, main beneficiaries, of course, will be the British pound. We will refrain from direct pound trading orders. However, we continue to believe in the triumph of common sense and a valuable exit, which will provoke the growth of the pound by hundreds or even thousands points. But taking into account how events are developing, it’s worth preparing for almost everything, including the classic divorce with “beating dishes”, the division of property and the courts. As for the other important events, another uncertainty in the trade war: the parties either want negotiations or not. But at the same time, the facts show that the war is going on and even intensifying. From now on, the United States introduces new tariffs on goods from China. Also, Extremely powerful, life-threatening Hurricane Dorian is gaining momentum and could potentially cause major damage in Florida. Tomorrow we will write in more detail how to make money on this natural phenomenon. In general, given how uncertain and worried the world is, this week we will continue to buy safe-haven assets. The week may well be difficult for the Australian and Canadian dollars: on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision on the interest rate, and the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on Wednesday. Well, the publication of statistics on the US labor market will conclude more than an eventful week. Considering that before the FOMC decision is announced, it remains just a couple of weeks, the data on the NFP may well completely change everything. But we will talk about this in more detail during the week. As for our trading preferences for this week, we note that we tend to sell the euro, avoiding trading the pound (until the current situation with the Parliament’s blocking becomes clear), buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell oil and the Russian ruble. As for our trading preferences for this week, we note that we tend to sell the euro, avoiding trading the pound (until the current situation with the Parliament’s blocking becomes clear), buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell oil and the Russian ruble.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
EURCAD Weekly Trendline Violated! Price Likely To Target 1.43500Have a look at the main weekly TF for EURCAD. The horizontal lines represents support and resistance levels taken from the monthly TF. The July's monthly candle closed below 1.47000 support and additionally the August's Candle formed a strong doji rejecting and closing below the 1.47000 support. This is a strong indication that the price would likely gather pace towards the next support present at 1.43500. Furthermore, the Longterm trendline on weekly and monthly charts was violated, Further suggesting a decline is on the cards! The chart above is Monthly TF charts of EURCAD indicating the LONG-TERM Trendline violation and monthly candle breaching and closing below the support. Fundamentally the EUR is bound for further incoming weakness as the ECB is struggling to hit their inflation target and the new incoming president has already suggested the rates could further go into negative territory in order to support the growth. I am already SHORTING the EURCHF, which has slight correlation to this pair and furthermore i am already SHORT on the USDCAD. Due to these factors and i am not willing to take this trade because it would increase my risk exposure and violate rules of trading. For those of you who would like to take this pair SHORT, you could do this at your own risk with the target of 1.43500 and RR of 1:1. This trade in my view is a high probability trade with many confluence factors in favor of us. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Navigating The Market : Simplified #EURJPY Sept 2nd, 2019The EURJPY had been in a bearish trend. The Yen had been bid due to safe-haven flows thanks to Trump and China trade war. I also believe what is happening in Hong Kong does play it's part as well. Retail sentiment generally bearish on the Yen. The first thing happened after the Sydney open was price managed to break below and closed under last Friday's low (coincided with last week's low as well), followed by a bullish version of a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern (I genuinely forgot what its actually called!). There are plenty of sell stops recorded around the prices between 115.850 to 116.350. I looked at the order books, great % amount of opened buy positions there at 116.650 (the close price of that bullish candle), which I suspect 116.350 price is the averaged stop-loss price (Stoploss is a sell stop for a buy position, vice versa) Sell orders above market price right now, which logically would be the place for everyone to put their sell stops as well as bearish continuation trade. That's too obvious for me and I bet the institutionals would take advantage of that and take the other side of the trade. Look, it could happen (price reverses at 117.00-117.150, but trading is a numbers game, my personal record of statistics suggest it has higher probability that the price would just break that sell stops above market price) My game plan is to scalp a long trade if price taps into the sell stop around 116.350 to 115.580. If price continues to go up (without going down further at 116-115.xx) and respects the sell stop at 117.150-117.00, I will re-adjust my plan as that would be the classic continuation pattern for the underlying bearish trend. I do however anticipating the sell stops at 117.xx to be consumed and the price goes higher towards previous Friday's high. I will look to short if/when that happens. A further move higher right now ((without going down further at 116-115.xx) would be too bad because I want to Long EURJPY short term (because, as I've mentioned above, I am bullish Yen - in other words, bearish EURJPY) but i'm more comfortable if it taps into the liquidity pool.
by sufiansaid
DXY Likely To Make Push Towards 100.00 As USD Gathers Pace! The above snapshot was taken from the monthly DXY TF charts, showing nearby concrete support and resistance levels. The monthly candle has convincingly closed outside the 98.00 resistance suggesting that the price headed towards the 100.00 mark. The main chart is the weekly TF chart showing a well respected ascending channel. The price would likely gather pace to HIT the 100.00 Mark in the comings weeks based on fundamental market movers! Due to ongoing trade war and slight hope that a deal could be made, the demand for SAFEHAVEN USD has increased. So the question comes, which pair will likely get affected the most due to USD strength? What we observed last week was that the JPY did not gain significantly against the USD as the market were still skeptical that a trade deal was far from being agreed and due to this JPY was resilient against the USD. The CAD also was resilient supported by the strong OIL prices and GOOD fundamental datas. Against the CHF the USD gained ground but in my view trading a SAFEHAVEN currency with another will be difficult as the demand for both intensifies when RISK OFF mood is present! So cutting the chase short, last week the NZD and EUR were the biggest losers against the USD, largely due to their fundamental aspects not being too supportive. The RBNZ is thinking of slashing rates and the new incoming president of the ECB has hinted the rates could go into deeper negative territory due low inflation and growth. So it is advised to take the advantage of EUR & NZD against the USD strength. Personally i am already SHORTING the EURO against The FRANC and i would be looking to take advantage of NZDUSD when the session opens to target 0.61000 level (go to the related link ideas to find out more about NZDUSD) This just represents my outlook on the DXY. Shall a trade opportunity be feasible regarding the NZDUSD i will post it in a new post.
TVC:DXYLong
by FX618Analysis