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Tradewarhopes

RENMINBI AS A TRADE WAR PROXY & DOLLAR SHORTAGE(for macro nerds)USD/CNY: Two detailed bullet points ; Series on Currencies(feedback's always welcomed) - 7th of December 2019 First of all, this chart is simply a guide on how to analyse Dollar:Renminbi as a trade war proxy. As there are many economic variations and possible outcomes for 2020 at this point in time, I will not give recommendations for this chart. These are my subjective technicals and I will not analyse them, so don't follow them blindly. More importantly, let's take a look at some of the macro and fundamental perspectives. 1. 7 is a key level for the USD/CNY. Somehow the cross in August coincided with the inversion in yield curves, and the height of the trade war fears. Data backing up the cross at 7 is the decrease in Chinese holdings of treasuries (Ref #1), YoY down -4.27% . This indicates, that China is attempting to create a stronger dollar environment that corresponds with higher treasury yields, in order to alleviate some of the trade war tariff pains(higher yields=stronger $ ). Of course, treasuries are a global market, and China isn't able to completely influence the dollar At the stage with all the noise, it's very hard to exactly know what the trade war outcome will be, so I've given some of the scenarios on the chart. Furthermore, as FED cut rates, so did the PBoC (despite higher CPI , pork's here to blame) . This was their way of signalling that they're ready to devalue the yuan in case the trade war continues (Ref #2). The simplest way to read the Dollar/Yuan chart is with a dummy variable approach: If USDCNY<7= higher probability of a trade deal success and vice versa. 2. The DXY and USDSEK overlays combined with the 5-year lows in some of the emerging markets currencies(REF #5), indicating a global dollar shortage . These fears were somewhat dealt with as we had (Ref #3) three rate cuts this year and the start of QE:4, after the the repo market frenzy in August and September . Going into 2020, despite the FED being overly optimistic, I'm expecting that rates will further slide down to at least 1%. It all depends on how ambitious Trump is in terms of his trade war goals. The importance of USDSEK , simply is the fact that Sweden is such an open economy and the effect of these events mentioned above can serve as a way to cut all the trade news noise. A s expressed in the USDSEK chart, currently Swedish manufacturing numbers are well below 50, without the expected bounce for November(REF #6), despite the strong performance from equities . Along with other swedish economic data that's also performing poorly, without a doubt, this raises recession fears even further. To conclude this analysis on the Dollar:Renminbi, as mentioned in the intro- at this point there are many possible variations and many factors that could be analysed. I've already written a dozen posts on the trade war and the 2020 elections and it seems that it's impossible to give an easy and simple answer. One thing to expect for certain in 2020, is a rise in volatility . As the election cycle nears, there might be an increased pressure on Trump to get a deal done, so hopefully we'll get a more clear picture of the outcome of the trade war. Nevertheless, phase 1 is somewhat unimportant. Practically all the important negotiation points are pushed for phase 2 . Future may after all, seem interesting, but at the same time gloomy, and the show's just about to get started. This is it for Dollar:Yuan, feedback is always welcomed! -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated ! References & Disclosure: 1. Chinese Treasury holdings: ticdata.treasury.gov 2. PBoC Prime rates: tradingeconomics.com 3. FED Rates super cycle: 4. Treasury Yields: 5. Latin(emerging) markets currency index: www.bloomberg.com 6. Swedish Manufacturing data: tradingeconomics.com Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
ORBEX: Trump Comment Reduces Haven Flows, Brexit Extended Again!In today’s #marketinsightsi video recording, I talk about the rise of optimism around US-Sino trade and how it could impact #USDJPY until the two leaders meet next month. On top of the latest #Trump related flows, the pair will be affected perhaps positively from this week's #FOMC meeting as markets are expecting the Fed to cut interest rates again! I also picked #EURUSD on the back of yet another #Article50 extension and as #pound seemed a little "out-of-touch" with the latest developments surrounding #Brexit. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ORBEX: GOLD - Expecting a Complex Corrective Structure? It looks like we have a triangle. Since they usually appear in wave B or 4, and it doesn't look like we are on a B wave, the corrective structure hints to a complex w,x,y minute wave. The complex correction is part of minor wave 4, which has a termination level above 1600, where intermediate wave 3 is likely to complete. After minor 3 top at 1557 markets corrected with a zig-zag pattern that has a 61.80% (b) wave and 100% (c) extension wave. With subminuette wave 4 nearly completed, subminuette wave 5 is likely to end near w minute low and form a flat pattern. Unless if minuette wave (a) extends below 1454 we could expect this pattern to form a different structure. The completion of (a) should see prices moving higher for a (b) minuette and then slide lower. In case the decline to (a) stops at minute w low, (b)'s top would be the 1513. Anything above would invalidate the flat, but could indeed become an expanded flat (unlikely). This opportunity would be invalidated above 1536. A break below 1480 would be an early sign of validation towards (a). Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Orbex
AUDCAD Ascending TriangleI expect the AUDCAD to have a bullish breakout either next week or the week after that on the higher timeframes (Day and Week). They have great job numbers, an extremely strong Trade Balance (in spite of the trade war), and has a housing market awakening from its slumber. This could be one of the building steps towards that breakout and if their reserve bank doesn't do something silly like dropping the interest rate again, the AUD could soar. However, be careful as despite all my rational optimism, there has been an overall negative outlook on the AUD due to the risk-off nature of the current market (caused by the trade war), so trade at your own risk.
Long
by TogamiTrader
1
ORBEX:SPX,DXY -Tradewar Deal Next Month! Brexit Today, Tomorrow?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #SPX and #DXY #Indices! Equities and Cash Indices are both affected by growing confidence surrounding #tradewars, #Brexit and of course, the upbeat US earning reports that keep coming out! With Mr Trump expecting a #tradewar deal by the middle of next month and BoJo willing to push through his latest EU-agreed deal through parliament today or tomorrow, it's going to be an interesting start to the week. Meanwhile, the economic calendar is light today, Monday, making headline news a good market mover! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
TVC:DXY
by Orbex
Broad market analysis 21 May 2019- Indices - Powell Speech: Outlook of trade talks is unknown, premature to judge. Complete denial, or just lying? By now every one knows the economy numbers make no sense and cannot be sustained. Every sucker that fell for the "trade war hopes" is slowly starting to realized he got scammed. Don't really care about other indices as I am already short on the Snp, interesting to see the Hang Seng that did not make it back to ath is the one that retraced the most. It went up as much as the rest in % terms. Its wave 1 pullback was the biggest one too. - FX Majors - USDJPY waiting on the sidelines until it goes back down, or if it keeps going up will buy. GBPUSD still going down, downtrend on H4 but on higher timeframes not so much. I either want to potentially sell a pullback or buy around support as the higher timeframe > lower timeframe. AUDUSD there was a pullback to sell, but that pullback was a big gap up. I don't know what to expect. No thanks. Not going to touch it for a while. I don't see that giant wick as support. And I don't think I want to sell another pullback unless we really dump, below yearly lows, and that will take a while. If it does not take a while I am not touching it. So either way... USDCHF I think the bounce was a dead cat bounce. Chart-patterns-that-dont-work-retail-traders that bought the fake bull break are I think in denial. They refuse to cut their losses - just speculating here I don't know really - and will give up once the dead cat bounce low is taken out. USDCHF on the long term as you can see is not bearish at all. Just slightly bullish. Slowly going up, trapping bull break traders. Breaks are slow and don't get much follow up in bull trends which are typically diagonal slow. When they capitulate it will be a dip which are great to buy in bull markets, and I expect the price to at least retest the dead cat bounce low as support. That does not mean I think this is as high as the price will ever get for you Bitcoin people. It means that I will close my buy there because I am not a gambler. Would be just perfect if the price bottomed as it does a "bear break" of the wedge and people get trapped once again, filling my bids. "TA / price action does not work trading is one big scam". USDMXN no conviction on buyers side. I still do not know where it is likely to go. Just watching. - Commodities - Gold FOMO buyers rekt. If the downtrend goes on and there is a pullback like in the blue circles I will go short. Otherwise looking to buy around 1200$ as I have been saying for 2 months now. Will wait for as long as it takes or until there is a new development. Gold buy is mirrored by a silver buy, but I would rather be in gold. There is just no difference. Well there is, gold is more bullish. Silver I don't expect to become more bullish than gold unelss it goes to new lows (and not jsut 50 cents), or in a long time. It maybe be in a bad situation, but I do not think the lower lines are that important. You can always draw a new line and it looks like gold is still above support. The upper line thought is clearly relevant... Actually I placed a buy. But at this level of zoom in, the thing is spreads really ruin risk reward ratios. And I might get hit by noise... Let's jsut see. I won't do this often anyway. In any case 2/3 daily ATR is the bare minimum I will ever go for. Gold spreads are pretty high compared to the biggest Forex pairs (2 to 3 times for the same daily ATR) and even the biggest Forex pairs spreads are twice as high as the Dow Jones & Dax ones. There is a convergence of factors leading me to think the price bounces there so I'll give it a go. Crude Oil it looks like the typical supply/demand cycle on a smaller scale. This is the smallest on which it makes sense. Anything below that is pure noise. Maybe I should have kept some of my contracts rather than close evrything? :D Still waiting to short around 70-75$ something something. Copper is weird. Looks like some kind of weird corrective pattern. It looks like it is bottoming, a bit early. I don't think I still want to buy. Aggri biggest one Soybean made a recovery but it stinks I am not interested in touching it. Interesting to see some futures, wheat has made a hige recovery and a higher high! Corn this is just ridiculous now stop it! Aggri futures on the ICE have not gone up. Ponzi insider pyramid scheme. Or easy arbitrage play? By the way, you get to use 10 to 1 leverage on commodity futures other than gold in europe. Easy blow up. By the way, the ESMA admitted last year that since the new leverage rules came into effect, MORE retail traders lost money, yes that is MORE. A bigger percentage were losers, and less were profitable. These rules are so stupid. They do not affect me as much, I just don't get to do whatever I want, and thank you for negative balance protection, my broker can take the hit for me if something crazy happens, but gosh these rules are DUMB. - Cryptocurrencies - After a few months of waiting (and morons harassing me for not buying when I cannot quantify my risk) I believe the bear market correction is soon over. The highest price reached in years is probably going to be reached before the end of next week. I am scaling in here because I cannot pinpoint the exact top but I have high probabily areas where I have orders, and I might just go all at once if I see a small christmas tree topper like Dec 17 2017 and Nov 30 2013. I look forward to getting back to the good old days of the downtrend and pointing and laughing at bulls in complete denial. June and December, worse months for Bitcoin. The alt market is approaching 100 billion cap. Because of that + because Bitcoin I believe is close to this bubble top, I won't buy. - FX minors - GBPJPY only interested in selling the pound & buying the yen. CHFJPY too big pullback for me, I think the swiss franc keeps going higher (maybe because of USDCHF). Not touching it still... EURAUD I like what I see I will definitely want to buy a pullback to this area: GBPCAD gave away so much gains that took so long, so fast. Rekt. The more slowly it goes up the faster it goes down and vice versa. The lows are clearly a support area nothing complex about that one so I will want to buy. Also want to sell if the downtrend pullsback, because you do not stop a truck this easilly. "We are going up on Brexit hopes" lmao "efficient market" lmao. Bunch of idiots like the rest. "Sterling set for biggest rise in a year on Brexit hopes - Reuters Jan 25, 2019" NZDUSD looking for a sell. No buy. AUDUSD not touching but AUDJPY could be just the right combo with the yen stronger than the dollar. Will sell a pullback. Even if the australian dollar "chops" there is still the bullishness of the yen in my favor. So I have to be wrong twice to lose. If there is a pullback. GBPCHF well I guess by now people figured out what I do. Feelsbadman. Secret strategy leaked. Same concept as usual buy in accumulation area sell strong downtrends. GBPCAD downtrend, if there is a pullback it is not "normal", so I am only looking to buy in the demand area. Not buying no matter what if we are not in this area. Oh maybe I should add this as a rule? 1- Preserve capital 2- Preserve mental capital 3- Have the correct bias 4- Have systems to enter / exit 5- Find ideas to enter 6- Choose your markets timeframes strategies. 7- And more ==> 6 goes into 7 and I add between 3 and 4 because it is important "Have filters" or something like this (only short in supply area or strong trends, stay away from choppy markets, etc) I should modify my April 6 "Trading rules" idea. EUR/Pound obviously going way up. EURSEK has remained above ATH all this time. Will buy on a retest of that ath. To the moon! Target infinity. Communist Sweden "the rape capital of europe" is going to end up a complete s***hole, the toilet of europe. Meanwhile previously communist Estonia has turned to economic freedom since 1991/1992 pretty much, free capitalism, and it now the wealthiest nation of east europe. Life expectancy has moved from 66 years in 1994 to 77 years in 2016. Yo how do I long east europe? Social justice liberals are economically destroying the west (trying to stay politically correct here I would put it differently in private or on twitter), time for the east to shine. People used to laugh at me (and most still do) for saying USA & west europe sink to third world scum and east europe & russia are going up (because they are at the part of the socialist/capitalism cycle where things get very very good), but things ARE clearly changing, just wait and see in 10-30 years. Things are getting brighter and brighter and they have a great beautiful future ahead of them. I don't really know about China, probably they go up, but people are way overestimating them. Short the west! Long the east! AUDCAD maybe sell. USDCNH not touching it here... Way overextented, I would need a big dump like Bitcoin to short sell it. I rather not buy it can just crash hard instantly. Similar situations: USDTRY just waiting for a deeper pullback. People are still hesitant. How long I will hodl will depend on interests. Wasted country. Slowly turning into third world sewers. To sum up: Indices: patient still short FX "Majors": GBPUSD USDCHF may be interesting, waiting for the rest. Gold: Waiting for the price to go below 1266 to join the downtrend short, or buy as it ends. Bitcoin: Scaling in short. Now is still a bit early, waiting for it to go higher to sell more. "Minor" pairs: EURAUD I want to buy around 0.382. GBPJPY meh, GBPCAD same trade as GBPUSD not sure it has any advantage over it, GBPCHF trending towards liquidity area GBPCAD too, EURGBP same story. NZDUSD potential sell. AUJPY selling a pullback ABC. EURSEK I wanna buy TO THE MOON, but waiting for an ABC to ath (even thought there was an ABC above it) because that's how I roll. AUDCAD interesting to sell, USDCNH better not buy, sell if sellers step in with conviction. The stock market was going up on trade war hopes. But that went down the drain China and the USA are almost declaring war on each other haha. Bitcoin was going up on ETF hopes for a few months. Got pushed back. Can we not keep going up on ETF hopes for 6 more months? K thx. Or "the end of the bear market" hopes rather maybe. The pound was going up on Brexit hopes. All gains erased in a few days. Rekt. "Hopes". I cringe every time I see that word. What we are dealing with is not human. Can't be. Bunch of idiots I swear.
by MrRenev