Can Soybeans Survive the Global Trade Chessboard?In the intricate game of international trade politics, soybeans have emerged as pivotal pieces on the global economic chessboard. The soybean industry faces a critical juncture as nations like the European Union and China implement protectionist strategies in response to US policies. This article delves into how these geopolitical moves are reshaping the future of one of America's most significant agricultural exports, challenging readers to consider the resilience and adaptability required in today's volatile trade environment.
The European Union's decision to restrict US soybean imports due to the use of banned pesticides highlights a growing trend towards sustainability and consumer health in global trade. This move impacts American farmers and invites us to ponder the broader implications of agricultural practices on international commerce. As we witness these shifts, the question arises: How can the soybean industry innovate to meet global standards while maintaining its economic stronghold?
China's strategic response, which targets influential American companies like PVH Corp., adds complexity to the global trade narrative. The placement of a major U.S. brand on China's 'unreliable entity' list highlights the power dynamics involved in international commerce. This situation prompts us to consider the interconnectedness of economies and the potential for unforeseen alliances or conflicts. What strategies can businesses implement to navigate these challenging circumstances?
Ultimately, the soybean saga is more than a tale of trade disputes; it's a call to action for innovation, sustainability, and strategic foresight in the agricultural sector. As we watch this unfold, we are inspired to question not just the survival of soybeans but the very nature of global economic relationships in an era where every move on the trade chessboard can alter the game. How will the soybean industry, and indeed, international trade, evolve in response to these challenges?
Tradewars
Why I Believe Brent Crude Oil is Headed to $125 by 2026www.tradingview.com 1. Supply Constraints: Geopolitics & Trade Wars
One of the biggest drivers of higher oil prices is geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts. We're already seeing major disruptions that could tighten supply further:
Middle East Tensions – The ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea, Iran, and Israel continue to create uncertainty. Attacks on shipping routes and production facilities raise the cost of transporting oil and increase the risk of supply disruptions.
Russia-Ukraine War – With Russian oil facing sanctions and restrictions, global supply chains have had to adjust, making energy markets more fragile.
OPEC+ Output Cuts – OPEC has repeatedly restricted production to keep prices elevated, and there’s no indication they’ll reverse course anytime soon.
U.S.-China Trade War & Tariffs – With Trump leading in the 2024 election polls, there’s a growing possibility that tariffs on China will return. If this happens, energy trade flows could be further disrupted, and retaliatory tariffs could add to price pressures.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Depletion – The U.S. used a huge portion of its SPR to lower oil prices in 2022-2023, but refilling those reserves will create additional demand, pushing prices even higher.
With these factors at play, supply is becoming more constrained, making it easier for prices to rise with even small increases in demand.
2. Demand Boom: AI, Bitcoin Mining, and Agriculture
While supply is tightening, demand for energy is skyrocketing in unexpected ways.
AI Data Centers & Industrial Demand
AI computing is extremely energy-intensive, and as companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to expand cloud computing infrastructure, demand for electricity is surging.
Many data centers still rely on fossil fuels for backup power and cooling systems, meaning oil and gas usage will continue to increase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Mining
Bitcoin mining requires massive amounts of electricity, and as BTC prices rise, mining activity expands in energy-dependent regions.
With the 2024 BTC halving, miners will have to run at full efficiency, which translates to higher global energy consumption.
Agriculture & Food Production
The world’s growing population and extreme weather events (like El Niño) are driving higher food production needs.
Fertilizer production, transportation, and machinery all require oil, meaning agricultural commodities are directly contributing to higher energy demand.
Together, these factors suggest that demand for oil is only going to increase, making it harder for supply to keep up.
3. Oil Price vs. Stock Market: The $100 Warning Zone
Historically, when oil prices get too high, the stock market struggles. Some key examples:
2008 Recession: Oil peaked at $147 per barrel, right before the financial crisis.
2018 Market Drop: When oil hit $80+, stocks sold off sharply.
2022 Inflation Shock: Oil reached $120+, leading to Fed rate hikes and market turmoil.
Why $100+ Oil is a Warning Sign for Stocks
Higher oil prices = higher inflation. This forces central banks like the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, making borrowing more expensive.
Energy costs impact corporate profits. Companies across multiple sectors will see shrinking profit margins as transportation and production costs rise.
Consumer spending takes a hit. Gasoline prices cut into disposable income, which weakens overall economic growth.
If Brent crude pushes above $100, expect increased market volatility and a potential selloff in equities.
4. Brent Crude Technicals: Price Targets for 2026
Current Setup
Price Holding Key Support (~$70-$74) – Brent is respecting major trendlines, signaling strong demand in this area.
Breakout Zone Around $80-$82 – If price moves above this level, it could trigger a rally to $100+.
Fibonacci Levels Align with $125 Target:
0.618 Fib retracement at $106 → First major resistance.
0.786 Fib extension at $119 → Likely next target.
1.272 Fib extension near $125 → Final upside target for 2026.
This technical setup aligns with macro fundamentals and historical oil cycles, making a move to $125 increasingly probable.
5. Investment & Trading Strategy
Long-Term Bullish Strategy
Accumulation Zone: $70-$74 (solid support).
Upside Targets: $106, $119, $125.
Stop Loss Consideration: Below $68 (invalidates thesis).
Hedging Against Market Risk
SPX Put Options / VIX Calls – If oil rises toward $100+, consider hedging against an equity downturn.
Energy Stocks (XLE, Exxon, Chevron) – These stocks tend to outperform during oil bull markets.
Gold & Commodities – Hard assets often rally when energy prices increase.
Conclusion: The Path to $125 Brent Oil
Geopolitical instability + supply cuts = higher prices.
AI, Bitcoin, and food production = rising demand.
If oil approaches $100, watch for an equities pullback.
While no forecast is perfect, all signs point to oil prices rising into 2026. If this trend plays out, investors should be prepared for higher inflation, tighter Fed policy, and increased market volatility.
Would love to hear your thoughts—do you think oil will hit $125, or are we headed lower? 🚀📊
Trump’s Trade War Risks Throwing Markets into Chaos. TARIFFic?Apparently, Trump has slapped Mexico, Canada and China with hefty tariffs. Now all these three are either already retaliating with their own levies on US goods or getting ready to do so. The complex interplay of back-and-forth tariffs risks turning friends into foes and driving up prices. All the while the end consumer is likely to cover the difference.
President Donald Trump on Saturday actually went ahead and did what he wanted to do. He launched the game of tariffs. He hit Mexico, Canada and China with hefty import duties, threatening to throw the world’s trade into a spiral of ill intentions, retaliations and higher prices for your Stanley cups and iPhones.
The looming destabilization is already coming from both ends — Canada swiftly imposed 25% levies on roughly $20 billion of US goods coming into the country on Tuesday. Another $85 billion worth of goods are getting the same treatment within the next three weeks.
China, where nearly everything you get your hands on is made, said it will “take necessary countermeasures to defend its rights and interests.”
Trump’s new order requires Canada and Mexico to pay 25% tariffs on imports to the US (with a partial carve out for Canada’s energy and oil exports — 10% levies apply there). The US President was gearing up for a 60% tariff rate on China while he was running for office but said he’s imposing a 10% tariff that will likely get higher in time.
These three countries in 2023 collectively accounted for about 40% of all US imports. That year, the US imported about $3.85 trillion worth of goods. In November 2024, the US pulled in about $351 billion worth of stuff and then sold it to Americans.
What are tariffs and who pays them?
At the basic level, tariffs are a way for an economy to protect itself from foreign competition. Through tariffs, domestic businesses are somewhat shielded from outside interference and can snatch up a bigger portion of the local market.
Tariffs are just taxes placed on products that are made overseas and then imported to the country. Here’s the kicker: the foreign companies that make these goods and then import them aren’t on the hook for paying the tariffs — American businesses are.
Tech companies like Apple AAPL , which makes about 95% of its stuff in China, or Tesla TSLA , which makes half of its cars in China, will end up paying more for their products as they come into the US. Who’s collecting that import duty? The US government.
What could happen when these tariffs get cracking?
The US consumer will most likely cover the difference. Nearly every product will be affected — from cars to baby toys to the already expensive eggs (can egg prices get even higher?)
Here’s an example: potash, the product that’s used by US farmers as fertilizer, just got 25% more expensive. That extra cost, paid by the farmers, is likely to trickle down to the end consumer so farmers could keep trucking and produce at the same rates.
What could happen to the stock market?
One thing is certain — the companies that don’t pass on the added cost to the consumer will see their corporate profits dwindle. But if they want to keep generating value for shareholders, they’ll need to pass it forward to the end user. With the first quarter now well under way, the next earnings season will be a sight to see. (Friendly reminder to keep an eye on the economic calendar for all corporate earnings and updates.)
An analysis from Barclays estimates that all S&P 500 companies could see their profits shrink by 2.8% once the tariffs get in full flow.
Perhaps a bigger, scarier fallout is possible. Inflation can perk up again. Inevitably, the higher costs across the border risk undoing what the Federal Reserve was doing to combat inflation.
Goldman Sachs came out with the forecast that the looming tariffs could have an initial knock on effect on inflation to the tune of 0.7% to the upside. Gross domestic product could drop 0.4%.
And most of all, there’s one thing investors fear the most. Rising inflation could bring back interest rate hikes. A revival in consumer prices might prompt the Federal Reserve to walk back its intentions of more interest rate cuts and lean against the economy by raising borrowing costs.
There are early signs of this already. Fed chief Jay Powell last week said the central bank is in a wait-and-see phase as Trump’s policies unfurl.
The scary tariffs already knocked the wind out of stocks and crypto. Monday morning saw one of its worst openings in years, especially for Ethereum ETHUSD . The second-largest coin fell as much as 27% from the get-go as the bullish sentiment was nowhere to be seen.
Bitcoin BTCUSD also got a slap losing 6% in its first deals to settle near $91,000 before paring back some of the drop. And stock futures were looking at steep declines with Dow futures DJI shedding as much as 700 points ahead of the opening bell in New York. The only winner was the US dollar DXY , which stands to gain popularity in a high-tariff environment.
Until now, the market has been overwhelmingly on Trump’s side. He stepped into the White House riding on the promises of a strong economy and booming business. But if he takes aim (even indirectly) at shareholders’ profits, he might end up losing the support of all those billionaire executives who worked hard to get him elected.
What do you think? Is Trump acting in the best interest of America or is he driving markets into a ditch? Share your thoughts below!
Can the Yuan Dance to a New Tune?In the intricate ballet of global finance, the Chinese yuan performs a delicate maneuver. As Donald Trump's presidency introduces new variables with potential tariff hikes, the yuan faces depreciation pressures against a strengthening U.S. dollar. This dynamic challenges Beijing's economic strategists, who must balance the benefits of a weaker currency for exports against the risks of domestic economic instability and inflation.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is navigating this complex scenario with a focus on maintaining currency stability rather than aggressively stimulating growth through monetary policy easing. This cautious approach reflects a broader strategy to manage expectations and market reactions in an era where geopolitical shifts could dictate economic outcomes. The PBOC's recent moves, like suspending bond purchases and issuing warnings against speculative trades, illustrate a proactive stance in controlling the yuan's descent, aiming for an orderly adjustment rather than a chaotic fall.
This situation provokes thought on the resilience and adaptability of China's economic framework. How will Beijing reconcile its growth ambitions with the currency's stability, especially under the looming shadow of U.S. trade policies? The interplay between these two economic giants will shape their bilateral relations and influence global trade patterns, investment flows, and perhaps even the future of monetary policy worldwide. As we watch this economic dance unfold, one must ponder the implications for international markets and the strategic responses from other global players.
75: China Export Analysis - Fundamental and Technical OverviewThe European Union (EU) and the United States have increased scrutiny and imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports, particularly electric vehicles and strategic materials like gallium and germanium. These measures are designed to protect domestic industries from what are perceived as unfair trade practices and subsidies by the Chinese government.
Additionally, the EU's new Critical Raw Material Act and battery regulations aim to reduce dependency on Chinese imports and secure supply chains for critical technologies. These regulatory changes have led to a noticeable decline in Chinese exports to the EU.
In response, China has imposed export restrictions on key materials, further straining trade relations. These geopolitical tensions and trade barriers have significantly impacted China's export figures.
Currently, China's export trend is showing a downward trajectory. The export figures have struggled to reach the $350 billion mark and are at risk of dropping significantly lower, potentially towards the $140 billion level.
Chart Overview:
Trend Line: A clear downtrend is visible on the chart, with lower highs and lower lows indicating sustained pressure.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: The $350 billion level is the upcoming resistance. That has not yet been reached.
Support: Immediate support is observed around $250 billion. A break below this level could accelerate the downward move towards $140 billion.
Will We Reach $350 Billion or Go Lower?
Given the current economic and geopolitical landscape, it seems still likely that China will reach the $350 billion export mark in the near term because there has not been a really corrective wave in the chart. But the downward pressure from increased tariffs, export restrictions, and the EU's push for supply chain independence are significant hurdles. If these conditions persist, a further decline is a plausible scenario.
REMX Vaneck ETF - Trade WarsGuess who produces most of the world rare earth magnets which we need for electronics like phones, computers and many other things. China China China.
Guess which ETF saw all time high spike in volume yesterday. Not advice. DYOR. #tradewar
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USDCNH - US Dollar vs Chinese Yuan - Trump wins in short term- RSI divergency
- Divergência IFR
- must break support @ 7.10
- precisa romper suporte em 7,10
- another support @ 7.00 (weak)
- outro suporte em 7,00 (fraco)
- major support @ 6.93 + 200 days ema - TARGET
- alvo no suporte em 6,93 junto da mme 200 dias.
ORBEX: EURJPY, GBPCHF - US-EU Tradewar Begins, BoJo Submits PlanIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURJPY and #GBPCHF
#EURJPY looking bullish on:
- Expectations of further BoJ easing
- Poor JP consumer confidence
- Soft BoJ monetary base
- Good German PMIs and EA Inflation
#GBPCHF looking bearish on:
- Expectations of a strong franc
- Poor UK construction PMI
- Fresh BoJo proposal sentiment
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
NIO: High Volume, Low OutcomeNIO Inc, the electric vehicle manufacturer in China, is having a rough time. It's been a little less than a year since the NYSE debut, and the stock has now lost more than 80% of its market value. The crackdown on US-listed Chinese companies has only hurt the company further, with one of the largest single-day losses in the company's history.
Where do we go from here?
DIGITAL GOLD - REAL REASON WHY BITCOIN IS UPTRADING. Bitcoin is following Gold as both assets are seen as a form of Hedge
against the various governments and monetary policies.
Especially in the uncertainty caused by the Trade war
the decentralized nature of Bitcoin
and the fact that Bitcoin has been accepted lately by the financial institutions
are some of the reasons why we have seen this incredible rise this year.
As long as this Trade War goes on we would still see Bitcoin and Gold rise in this visual correlation.
CAT Sensitive to Tariffs & Trade WarsHuge growth in 2016 as speculative anticipation of more sales to China & other developing industrialization nations occurred. Unsupported by Fundamental & Technical support and resistance levels. Now in a sideways pattern, inevitably selling down toward a Business Bear Cycle pattern. Weekly chart view.
SPX to crest over 3k and then down3045 is the magic number. This represents a 2.618 advancement from the 2009 low.
The 4.618 is 3953 so good chance we see 2500 and even 2100 before we see 4000.
My prediction is as follows:
SPX reaches and breaches 3000. Maybe gets as high as 3150 before pull back begins.
Green box - 2870 or so is short target #1
From here we will need to see what the market looks like, but if the trade war hasn't yet been resolved, the yellow and orange boxes can come into play.
China GDP Numbers: THE Reversal for the Aussie?Next week I will be focused on AUD/USD for a few reasons.
Although straight forward data such as Australian employment change and business confidence numbers on Thursday will surely have an impact on the Aussie, what I'm more focused on is the systemic impact that Chinese GDP numbers will have on Monday.
Monday morning, China's Q2 GDP, as well as a host of other important readings for June, will hit the wires at 02:00 UTC.
It's important to understand how dependent Australia is on China. They are the largest destination for outbound goods and services for Australia, accounting for approx. 1/3rd of every dollar that is exported each year. The record-breaking period of expansion seen by Australia is directly accredited to its dependability on China. For example, this was in direct correlation to China giving loans --some of which were interest-free-- to Australia during and after the Great Recession; a term called "debt-trapping diplomacy" (Chan 2018). Australia clearly has benefited from this, however, it also has its negatives that I believe will prove to be detrimental to the Aussie-dollar beginning next Monday if China's GDP numbers print unexpectedly low.
The Aussie will be the direct and most significant target for these numbers and I can assure you with a guarantee it will move the candle. Fed expectations driving the Greenback lower over the last week is old news and eyes will be shifted back to 'trade wars' between the U.S. and China, growth, and earnings from U.S. equities.
I will be paying close attention to AUD/USD, as a deterioration of Chinese GDP could be the catalyst for one of the cleanest long term reversals seen by the Aussie since 2017. An extended bear trend, a clear descending wedge, an inverse head & shoulder (short term), and a 200-day moving average looming above are all technical reversal formations that I have my eyes on. This is the same setup that we identified earlier this summer with EUR/USD in which is broke to the upside after a 6-month decline.
Can this be the catalyst for an AUD reversal? It will be very tuff to trade this pair following Monday's GDP number, but I am nevertheless eager to trade the reaction and not the news.
US30 H&S on Daily Chart? Head and Shoulders could be forming at the daily chart . A lot of noise surrounding US economy. China trade war was already bad news for the currency and then Mexico talks this weekend. After bad month opening for the equities market. I will be expecting a retracement back to the neckline caused by oil rise and then short. What do you think? Is it a valid formation?
TARIFF MAN TO STRIKE GLOBALLY!This is a 6H chart of the DAX. Markets globally are heading south. Even the super-resilient Brazilian Bovespa is beginning to buckle. In this screencast I show what the price action is like for the DAX and why I think the market is exhausting. I may well be totally wrong - but I'll limit how wrong I am with an acceptable stop-loss.
Three main issues plague the DAX and other markets globally:
1. China trade/technology war.
2. Tariff man picking a fight with Mexico
3. And as of a couple days ago Tariff man has squeezed India by ending special trade treatment. (Google is your friend on that one).
From what I see, the house of cards, the Ponzi scheme that is global markets is falling. I'll take my losses in shorting these.
Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation to trade. Opinions here are my own. If you make decisions based on this and you lose your money sue yourself!
MY AAPL (Weekly)Mi análisis técnico personal en visión semanal. Neutral, por decir algo.
Aunque no hay certeza de nada, puede ser probable el escenario debido al conflicto imperial en curso.
Salud!
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My personal technical analysis in weekly vision. Neutral, to say something.
Although there is no certainty of anything, this scenario may be probable due to the ongoing imperial conflict.
Cheers!
The last days of Theresa May, more trade wars, worst week of oilThe previous week was tough for financial markets due to the escalation of the trade war between the USA and China, which, moreover, have taken new forms like US attacks on Chinese technology companies.
At the same time, the White House is not planning to stop. The tariff epidemic will spread to other countries, primarily those of them whose currencies are artificially undervalued. Recall that the undervaluing of the national currency provides a powerful competitive advantage in international trade.
In general, things rapidly get worse. We noted that this confrontation may become a new reality, in which it is worth getting used to living in now.
Another key event was Theresa May’s resignation. The inability to provide Brexit provoked Theresa May's resignation. She will remain in office until June 7, when her successor will change her. Most likely Boris Johnson will be. The pound, as we announced in Friday’s review, has grown due to this news. That only confirms the loyalty of our vision and recommendations. So this week we will continue to look for points for buying of the pound, including the medium-term position.
The previous week was the worst for oil for the entire 2019. The reason is the exodus of investors from risky and commodity assets amid fears of a sharp slowdown in the global economy. This scenario was viewed by us as a baseline, and from the very start of the last week we recommended oil sales. So those readers who followed our advice should have made very good money. On Thursday alone, oil lost about 6%.
About the upcoming week, we note that its main events, perhaps, will be the announcement of the Bank of Canada decision on the parameters of monetary policy, as well as data on US GDP for the first quarter (revised). For the rest, the trade war will remain in focus.
As for today, we are waiting for a thin market and potential spikes in volatility on level ground. So you should trade carefully.
Our trading positions for the week did not change much: we will look for points for buying of the euro against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we begin to buy a pound.