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Tradewars

75: China Export Analysis - Fundamental and Technical OverviewThe European Union (EU) and the United States have increased scrutiny and imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports, particularly electric vehicles and strategic materials like gallium and germanium. These measures are designed to protect domestic industries from what are perceived as unfair trade practices and subsidies by the Chinese government. Additionally, the EU's new Critical Raw Material Act and battery regulations aim to reduce dependency on Chinese imports and secure supply chains for critical technologies. These regulatory changes have led to a noticeable decline in Chinese exports to the EU. In response, China has imposed export restrictions on key materials, further straining trade relations. These geopolitical tensions and trade barriers have significantly impacted China's export figures. Currently, China's export trend is showing a downward trajectory. The export figures have struggled to reach the $350 billion mark and are at risk of dropping significantly lower, potentially towards the $140 billion level. Chart Overview: Trend Line: A clear downtrend is visible on the chart, with lower highs and lower lows indicating sustained pressure. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: The $350 billion level is the upcoming resistance. That has not yet been reached. Support: Immediate support is observed around $250 billion. A break below this level could accelerate the downward move towards $140 billion. Will We Reach $350 Billion or Go Lower? Given the current economic and geopolitical landscape, it seems still likely that China will reach the $350 billion export mark in the near term because there has not been a really corrective wave in the chart. But the downward pressure from increased tariffs, export restrictions, and the EU's push for supply chain independence are significant hurdles. If these conditions persist, a further decline is a plausible scenario.
ECONOMICS:CNEXP
by SeventyFive-Invest
ORBEX: EURJPY, GBPCHF - US-EU Tradewar Begins, BoJo Submits PlanIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURJPY and #GBPCHF #EURJPY looking bullish on: - Expectations of further BoJ easing - Poor JP consumer confidence - Soft BoJ monetary base - Good German PMIs and EA Inflation #GBPCHF looking bearish on: - Expectations of a strong franc - Poor UK construction PMI - Fresh BoJo proposal sentiment Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
DIGITAL GOLD - REAL REASON WHY BITCOIN IS UPTRADING. Bitcoin is following Gold as both assets are seen as a form of Hedge against the various governments and monetary policies. Especially in the uncertainty caused by the Trade war the decentralized nature of Bitcoin and the fact that Bitcoin has been accepted lately by the financial institutions are some of the reasons why we have seen this incredible rise this year. As long as this Trade War goes on we would still see Bitcoin and Gold rise in this visual correlation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ZoroCapital
3
SPX to crest over 3k and then down3045 is the magic number. This represents a 2.618 advancement from the 2009 low. The 4.618 is 3953 so good chance we see 2500 and even 2100 before we see 4000. My prediction is as follows: SPX reaches and breaches 3000. Maybe gets as high as 3150 before pull back begins. Green box - 2870 or so is short target #1 From here we will need to see what the market looks like, but if the trade war hasn't yet been resolved, the yellow and orange boxes can come into play.
SP:SPXShort
by jdharward
1
China GDP Numbers: THE Reversal for the Aussie?Next week I will be focused on AUD/USD for a few reasons. Although straight forward data such as Australian employment change and business confidence numbers on Thursday will surely have an impact on the Aussie, what I'm more focused on is the systemic impact that Chinese GDP numbers will have on Monday. Monday morning, China's Q2 GDP, as well as a host of other important readings for June, will hit the wires at 02:00 UTC. It's important to understand how dependent Australia is on China. They are the largest destination for outbound goods and services for Australia, accounting for approx. 1/3rd of every dollar that is exported each year. The record-breaking period of expansion seen by Australia is directly accredited to its dependability on China. For example, this was in direct correlation to China giving loans --some of which were interest-free-- to Australia during and after the Great Recession; a term called "debt-trapping diplomacy" (Chan 2018). Australia clearly has benefited from this, however, it also has its negatives that I believe will prove to be detrimental to the Aussie-dollar beginning next Monday if China's GDP numbers print unexpectedly low. The Aussie will be the direct and most significant target for these numbers and I can assure you with a guarantee it will move the candle. Fed expectations driving the Greenback lower over the last week is old news and eyes will be shifted back to 'trade wars' between the U.S. and China, growth, and earnings from U.S. equities. I will be paying close attention to AUD/USD, as a deterioration of Chinese GDP could be the catalyst for one of the cleanest long term reversals seen by the Aussie since 2017. An extended bear trend, a clear descending wedge, an inverse head & shoulder (short term), and a 200-day moving average looming above are all technical reversal formations that I have my eyes on. This is the same setup that we identified earlier this summer with EUR/USD in which is broke to the upside after a 6-month decline. Can this be the catalyst for an AUD reversal? It will be very tuff to trade this pair following Monday's GDP number, but I am nevertheless eager to trade the reaction and not the news.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3442968
TARIFF MAN TO STRIKE GLOBALLY!This is a 6H chart of the DAX. Markets globally are heading south. Even the super-resilient Brazilian Bovespa is beginning to buckle. In this screencast I show what the price action is like for the DAX and why I think the market is exhausting. I may well be totally wrong - but I'll limit how wrong I am with an acceptable stop-loss. Three main issues plague the DAX and other markets globally: 1. China trade/technology war. 2. Tariff man picking a fight with Mexico 3. And as of a couple days ago Tariff man has squeezed India by ending special trade treatment. (Google is your friend on that one). From what I see, the house of cards, the Ponzi scheme that is global markets is falling. I'll take my losses in shorting these. Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation to trade. Opinions here are my own. If you make decisions based on this and you lose your money sue yourself!
FX:GER30Short
by Captain_Walker
The last days of Theresa May, more trade wars, worst week of oilThe previous week was tough for financial markets due to the escalation of the trade war between the USA and China, which, moreover, have taken new forms like US attacks on Chinese technology companies. At the same time, the White House is not planning to stop. The tariff epidemic will spread to other countries, primarily those of them whose currencies are artificially undervalued. Recall that the undervaluing of the national currency provides a powerful competitive advantage in international trade. In general, things rapidly get worse. We noted that this confrontation may become a new reality, in which it is worth getting used to living in now. Another key event was Theresa May’s resignation. The inability to provide Brexit provoked Theresa May's resignation. She will remain in office until June 7, when her successor will change her. Most likely Boris Johnson will be. The pound, as we announced in Friday’s review, has grown due to this news. That only confirms the loyalty of our vision and recommendations. So this week we will continue to look for points for buying of the pound, including the medium-term position. The previous week was the worst for oil for the entire 2019. The reason is the exodus of investors from risky and commodity assets amid fears of a sharp slowdown in the global economy. This scenario was viewed by us as a baseline, and from the very start of the last week we recommended oil sales. So those readers who followed our advice should have made very good money. On Thursday alone, oil lost about 6%. About the upcoming week, we note that its main events, perhaps, will be the announcement of the Bank of Canada decision on the parameters of monetary policy, as well as data on US GDP for the first quarter (revised). For the rest, the trade war will remain in focus. As for today, we are waiting for a thin market and potential spikes in volatility on level ground. So you should trade carefully. Our trading positions for the week did not change much: we will look for points for buying of the euro against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we begin to buy a pound.
Long
by Trade24Fx
GOLD (XAUUSD) - How will trade wars affect the setup?So this setup for gold is amongst the most straight forward setups, a lot of confirmations coming together at the same point. Break and retest of trendline Fib key zone Previous reversal zone Touch of a smaller scale trendline if could be a very nice buy opportunity for gold, and I will definitely be keeping an eye on this setup, provided I get price action, I will execute. HOWEVER... I dislike this setup for a few reasons: 1) Its too straight forward and easy, meaning a lot of traders most likely see the same setup. So be very careful, a stop-hunt move might occur before we see bullish move. 2) The more the trade wars between the US and China slow down and calm down, the lower gold will visit. Meaning if they manage to reach an agreement that benefits both parties, gold will slow down and drop. The more tension between both parties, the higher gold will go, due to it being a safe haven, and investors will invest in gold to keep their money safe when there is uncertainty in the FX market. This is a scenario that you just have to keep an eye on when it reaches the key level of 1290.00, and then decide whether you want to execute or not based on price action + fundamentals. Will keep the telegram posted. @PipsOfPersia t.me
FX:XAUUSD
by PipsOfPersia
I SAY THANK YOU DONALD! LOOL!Well, well - I have to thank Mr Trump for breaking the news that he's gonna raise tariffs on China about an hour before the open of the markets last night. The DJI and loads of other markets took a dive. I'm short of course, and trailing a 2H ATR trendline. On open of the markets there was a gap down of about 430 points. Never before have I seen anything like this on a Sunday night. As usual the bulls did their thing, trying to close the gap but were beaten back badly up to this morning. This does not mean they won't come around again for another bludgeoning. The bulls had of course been drunk over the last 4 weeks. They were pricing in hopes that the Fed would reduce interest rates. Powell delivered a nasty surprise. Then last night hopes that the China trade deal was coming to fruition got a shower of ice cold water. It's strange but not so strange that traders were gagging for the deal to come through. Reality was that for the last 6 weeks reputable sources knew that the deal was in trouble. Hey ho - I'm not here to stop anybody listening to or reading mainstream media. My speculation is that Mr Trump knows or knew the deal is dead (or near dead) so didn't want that to hit suddenly on Friday (the big day) - as bad news on a Friday would cause catastrophic meltdown (either on Friday or the following Monday). So methinks the gave a heads up to avoid the bubble popping 'too suddenly' - if there is any such thing. Well, for Donald anything is possible! LOL
FOREXCOM:US30Short
by Captain_Walker