GBPUSD: Correction to the fall from 1.719 almost complete? This pair have an excellent fall from 1.719 which started in June 2014. I marked in movement as wave ((1)) .
The correction structure looking like a clearly extended flat pattern, which retraced a little bit more 38.2% from fall from top.
This deep of correction not common for second waves. In general is equal 50%-61,8%, but not necessarily.
Now the pair do a wave 5 of wave (c) with targets: 1.572; 1.579 or a little bit more (fibo relation in wave 5 ). Also, key level which show, that correction complete is wave fourth of wave 5 = 1.5394. After that I will wait that the pair will fall until the 27th on May (new RSI cycle low level). It will important, because need to see how the pair will take a new low: it may be a clearly impulse wave or something like a zig-zag or any correction, that may indicate wave x .
If this rise will the last, then the pair will have a significant fall in wave ((3)) .
A common proportion is: wave ((3)) = 1.618 x wave ((1)) = 1.16 - greatest chance for good short. Im will aiming for it in next days/weeks.
Tradeyourplan
AUDUSD: New opportunities to riseSo, in my previous idea I wrote that the pair will go down, but this did not happen yet.
Also, wave structure has changed a little bit (I waited a fall with good acceleration) and does not look a like clear impulse. Therefore I reviewed my idea to change wave count to triangle pattern as a main scenario. If it so, then now the pair doing a wave X with next significant rise: my target now is 0.82 (wave (y) = 0.618 x wave (w) ) and next 0.841 (wave (y) = wave (w) )
What next? Wait and look. Both scenario is good, and for cancel one of it need to look how this pair will break a key levels:
a. 0.8029 (wave ((b)) )- key level, which will indicate, that triangle perhaps has ended and the pair will rise again.
b. 0.7784 (wave ((a)) ) - key level, which will cancel triangle pattern and the pair will fall down in wave 3 with a target at least at 0.755 (wave 1 = wave 3)
NOTE: A triangel not easy to trade, because the structure may changes during the time. I will carefully watch at this pair and will post any changes in comments for this idea.
DXY: Be Ready SoonDollar Index still be in wave ((iv)) . Now it is looking like a clearly flat correction with target at 93 = wave (a) x 1.618.
For end this flat correction wave (c) must to do a wave iv and v at during few days.
The price at 93 is significant level. Need to see, how the Index will achieve this price:
a. all subways must be end
b. oversale
c. divergence: RSI or MACD, etc
Following rise from 93 with good and clearly impulse may indicate, that the wave ((iv)) has ended and Index going up.
In ideally, after 93 the index have a good chance for rise to next target at 101 .
That wave count good matches with my vision of EURUSD. I wait a little rise, before the pair will fall down at parity.
$OGE Bearish Trading Plan can now be Executed.Hi all,
This is an update to the Short OGE Trading Plan, which is about Trading a Double Top Pullback.
The Earnings Release on 7 May 2015 showed better than expected results.
This has driven price to open higher at 32.23, reaching as high as 32.38 before closing the day at a loss for $31.96.
This price action shows that the Earnings Release has failed to convince the market to take the long side, leaving the downside as the more likely direction for the Stock Price.
Therefore Short Entry Condition has been met and a Short Trade can be executed for $OGE
Short Entry Conditions:
Only when both conditions a) AND b) listed below are true:
a) If price is does not do a daily close above $33.00 from now.
b) Price can convincingly close a day below $32.00.
Initial Stop Loss: Above $33.00
The reason for this trade is to capture the bearish trend from a Double Top pattern.
Therefore, if price manages to trade above $33.00, it means that the Double Top pattern has failed and the reason to maintain a short position is eliminated.
Shifting of Stop Loss after entry:
If prices manages to trade to $31.50 after entry, we can consider shifting the stop loss lower to $32.00.
The reason is that if price is genuinely breaking out below, it should exhibit a clean strong move downwards $30.00 and below.
Therefore this shifting of stop loss is a conservative approach to protect risk capital.
Taking Profit: $29.00
While the theoretical Double Top target is $28, it is better to use a more conservative target of $29.00.
Advanced traders can also look to take profit when RSI (14) is close to reaching the 28.0000 level.
Risk:
The is a risk that this is a fake continuation move. If a fake move occur we can consider flipping around, covered in the next point.
Flipping Around if Short Squeezed:
In the event that price manages to trade back above the neckline of $33.00, it will mean that the Double Top pattern has failed and the short position will incur a loss.
It is also likely that this failed pattern will lead to a short squeeze move with enough momentum to push prices higher to around $35.50.
Therefore more advanced traders may consider turning around and go long above $33.00 to capture this short squeeze momentum.
References:
Double Top: stockcharts.com
How to Short a Stock in Double Top Pattern Strategy: www.simple-stock-trading.com
Using Support and Resistance Levels of Relative Strength Index> Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional by Constance Brown, Chapter 1: Oscillators Do Not Travel between 0 and 100.
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Trading View: BreakOutArtist
StockTwits: stocktwits.com/BreakOutArtist
EURUSD: Short Term VisionWell, the pair did not going rise upper that 1.14 how I expected. Wave (v) have ended at 1.13906 by extended diagonal. My order closed by SL at 1.127 today.
This ending of wave give a point for start an opposite movement of trend. In current wave count show, that this opposite movement is just a correction wave ((iv)) .
In common retracement for fourth waves is:
a. 38.2% at Fibo (at 1.1169)
b. wave fourth previous dimension (at 1.1065)
Also, I think that the button line of parallel channel will break.
This correction may spend couple days. After that I will wait a rise again for wave ((v)) with price at least at 1.148-1.15 and upper.
ps. I have remarked labels of waves in accordance wave degree nomenclature.
$AUDCAD - Rate cut! Now What? Another shot of parity!Technicals on the chart.
Fundamentals :
Cad is borderline neutral. I would personally lean dovish. Data for CAD is mixed. WTI crude is really driving the direction. With Crude putting in a decent correction I would lean towards Crude now settling near 54. Supporting this trade.
AUD - Rate cut happened 25 points! Now what?
AUD sentiment is more neutral / hawkish now.
Rates now are 2%. It was expected and somewhat priced in already.
Comments from RBA stated they are happy with econ and employment / inflation figures.
They see inflation being in line with long term goals.
As for a future cut I do not see it happening with there housing bubble.
RBA would not want to add more fuel to the fire.
EURUSD: Rise did not endI have waited the correction at 1.11 level, but there was more deep to 1.1065 with combination structure - double zig-zag.
The depth of this correction may say about happen alternative count:
1.128 = wave (3)
1.1065 = wave (4)
It is does not much important, because it is does not cancel rise again.
The structure of correction looking ended, although movement from 1.1065 does not look a clearly impulse wave:
a. wave count: double zig-zag
b. rise after wave y break level of wave x
c. RSI low level
I think this pair have a good chance for next rise from this levels: at least will try to break down maximum of 3rd wave 1.1288 with next level at 1.14
AUDUSD: New opportunities for fall downI am still looking for short position in this pair.
Wave count show that movement from 0.80745 looks like a impulse wave (this count in related ideas) and have ended.
Now the pair are doing a correction wave: now it is looking like a zigzag (I will show a detail structure I will show at 30M chart later in comments).
In typical retracement for wave 2 it is a 61.8% - that almost complete.
If this count right, than the pair will fall down in wave 3 with first target at 0.73153 = wave 1 x 1.618%
Also, I this this falling will run until the 12th on May (in this period of time will be end H4 cycle)
For altcount this pair may falldown to the area of support leve (0.750 - 0.755)
EURUSD Not so fast! Technicals on the chart
Fundamentals :
US GDP was weak but blamed on weather.
Fed's Williams: June rate hike would require 'good' improvement in labor market, inflation. We have some critical data coming up this week Non Payrolls.
US nonfarm payrolls increased by 126,000 last month after a downwardly revised 264,000 rise in February, the smallest gain since December of 2013. Meanwhile, the jobless rate remained unchanged at 5.5 percent. .
We should see a big improvement this month in nonfarm payrolls and should keep the pressure on EURUSD towards the downside. Combined with Greece problems that won't go away very easily.
We also have GBPUSD elections coming up. The GBPUSD / EURUSD correlation should keep the pair downward pressure building in the short term.
EURUSD: Elliot wave countThe structure significant changed from my previous idea about triangle. At the present time this structure getting look like more as flat correction. The movement from 1.052 looks like impulses waves: (i) - (ii) - - . If so, the next rise will have a good acceleration and grow at least to 1.119 (wave (iii) = wave (i) x 1.618)
If flat pattern will occur, then this pair have a good chance go up to 1.1490 - 1.1500. (wave c = wave a x 1.618)
Otherwise, the triangle patter cannot be canceled before breakthrough the top line of triangle with a price: 1.10511.
I think, tomorrow one of both scenario will fulfilled.
AUDUSD: Elliot wave countThis pair have a clearly structure. The rise from 0.75322 to 0.78416 I marked as a regular flat 3-3-5: (a) (b) (c) count.
I market this flat as w , because from the level 0.75322 we got a significant low level for this pair. I think we complete impulse wave (iii) from 0.89 and this pair must have a significant correction.
Because of this the next wave that I'm waiting is a wave x . I preferred recognise 2 main scenario for next move during a week:
First
The pair do triangle pattern: a - b - c - d - e . I marked H4 cycle and RSI lower levels. I will waiting some decline to support line and my target price is 0.618 x wave a = 0.77428. This decline will going to the 28th on April (± several H4 bars)
Second
My alternative count is a sequence one-two waves from 0.76919. It mean, that after some decline the pair will start do wave 3 in two dimensions, breakthrough the support top line and go up with an acceleration.
Conclusion
In my opinion is that next few days will determine which of both scenario will occur. Both of them are showing that the pair have good opportunities for significant rise. One different is when this occur.
UPD:
Addition wave counting: After wave w may be appear a regular flat correction: 3-3-5. Now the pair have waves a - b . Then wave c will be have the next target point is 0.768. If this scenario will occur the pair will breakthrough the support bottom line very fast .
$GBPCAD continuation of uptrend after retest of support Technical on the chart.
Fundamentals:
After BOC Poloz comments. Puts the Bull back in control in this pair.
He Repeats that drop in oil prices very significant shock for Canada
He Repeats that oil price drop is front-loaded, one-time shock
Aiming for highs 1.9100s
Not for a new highs for this pair. If we get more hawkish tone from BOE that could be case but for now aim for mid line of fork.
$NZDUSD - WEAK CPI POINTS TO PAIR WILL STAY RANGE BOUNDTechnicals on the chart.
Fundamental thoughts.
- two consecutive quarterly falls for CPI data and petrol price had a decline of nearly 10%
- milk dairy prices on the decline
- Looking RBNZ to set a dovish tone in the near future.
- USD Rate hikes around the corner.
Reasons listed, I would safely say the pair will stay range bound.
$NZDUSD - Weak CPI Points to pair will stay range boundTechnicals on the chart.
Fundamental thoughts.
- two consecutive quarterly falls for CPI data and petrol price had a decline of nearly 10%
- milk dairy prices on the decline
- Looking RBNZ to set a dovish tone in the near future.
- USD Rate hikes around the corner.
Reasons listed, I would safely say the pair will stay range bound.
EURCHF DAILY CORRECTIONEURCHF is correcting the 'BIG DROP' . This could be the start of an up trend or just a 3 wave correction .In any case we are expecting a 3rd wave up . I will wait for confirmation that the down move if finished before I buy. This analysis is very much in line with the 'BIG UP MOVE ' expected on EURAUD.
Feel free to comment and like (Click the thumb at the top) if you agree with the analysis. YOUR VIEW IS IMPORTANT.
$GBPAUD Uptrend still in tact.Simple analysis. Please leave a comment or thumbs up if you agree. Discussion encouraged even if you hate the idea !
We bought the dip after AUD data.
Technicals on the chart.
Fundamentals for tradesetup:
Nothing has changed for AUD. Rate cut still on the table. GBP data is improving. Clearly BOE is becoming less dovish.
RBA still wants AUD down and they will do/say what it takes to keep talking it down.
$GBPNZD Hits weekly support holding+ Strong daily baseLooking for valid reason to be short NZD.
We had an interesting headline today :
Morgan Stanley on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:
RBNZ's "first move to be a 25bp cut in 4Q15, as inflation expectations remain subdued and major trading partners' central banks continue to ease monetary policy"
Technicals on the chart
GBPUSD corrective structureGBPUSD is making a daily correction ,If the count I am looking at is correct then one more up move is possible to complete it ,if I am wrong the risk is small so i took the trade.by breaking the bottom it will change the structure that i am looking for. If you agree with the count please like the chart .
Plenty of bearish confluence racking up on AUDNZDNo doubt who is in control here. Pretty much a selloff since 2011-ish, with bullish pullbacks here and there.
In the start of December '14, a bearish crossover occurred on the D1 after a pullback, and the selloff continued down.
Yesterday's candle (Monday, 09/03) showed a clear rejection of the key level around 1.0515 and the 50EMA.
Bears are definitely present at this level, and heaps of bearish confluence are loading up at this level;
1. Overall bearish momentum
2. D1 death cross
3. Possible rejection candle approaching
4. Rejection of key support
5. Rejection of dynamic resistance (50EMA)
6. Head and Shoulders pattern (bearish continuation pattern)
(7. close to a rejection of 50% fibo lvl)
(8. Slight MACD divergence)
Normally I go for 4-5 confluence factors, to place a trade, so if another rejection occurs today, I am definitely looking to get short on this pair, with 6-8 confluence factors supporting a short trade.
//Laban132
SPLS - A little Office Space...Swingline anyone?Volume - average recently.
EMA's - sideways and equity is headed toward the 50.
SMA's - headed higher and looking to catch up with the stock.
Stochastics - headed for a buy signal.
RSI - headed higher.
MACD - headed lower.
BB -squeezing and were broken today. Watch for a BB reversal.
ADX -around 40 and holding steady.
The momentum indicators aren't congruent with the trend confirming right now, but probably would be if it confirmed in the middle of the week when they all had a chance to catch up with where they needed to be.