USD/JPY Short, AUD/NZD Short, AUD/JPY Neutral and EUR/USD ShortUSD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
- If tight non-structured 5 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
- If tight structured 5 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
- If tight non-structured 15 min continuation forms, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
- If tight structured 15 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
AUD/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
- If tight non-structured 15 min continuation forms, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
- If tight structured 15 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
AUD/JPY Neutral
Minimum entry requirements:
- If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
Minimum entry requirements:
- 1H impulse down below area of value.
- If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
- If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
- If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
- If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
EUR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
- Tap into area of value.
- 1H impulse down below area of value.
- If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
- If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
Trading-forex
AUDJPY Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for AUDJPY below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 93.263
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 92.841
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EUR/GBP BULLS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
EUR/GBP SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 0.837
Target Level: 0.843
Stop Loss: 0.832
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
USDCAD 04/06 – BoC Rate Decision Ahead USDCAD 04/06 – BoC Rate Decision Ahead | Will the Market Break Higher or Reverse From 1.3820?
The USDCAD pair is trading around the 1.3700 area as markets prepare for the upcoming Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision. Price action shows potential for a breakout, but macro risks remain high.
🌍 MACRO OUTLOOK
BoC Expected to Hold Rates
Analysts widely expect the BoC to keep the interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, marking the third consecutive pause. Inflation has slipped below 2%, supporting the case for a dovish tone.
Trade Policy in Focus
With growing global uncertainties and Trump’s trade stance back in the spotlight, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem is expected to address policy risks, especially related to tariffs.
Market Sentiment
USD is mildly weaker after soft ISM data.
CAD remains near YTD highs but sensitive to policy commentary.
📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – H2 Chart
Price is forming a potential double bottom near the 1.3693 zone – a key structure support.
Resistance sits at 1.3725 – 1.3757. A confirmed breakout could lead to a test of 1.3824, the recent high.
Failure to hold 1.3690 may expose deeper downside toward 1.3620–1.3600.
🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
🟢 BUY ZONE: 1.3693 – 1.3700
SL: 1.3670
TP: 1.3725 → 1.3757 → 1.3800 → 1.3824
🔴 SELL ZONE: 1.3824 – 1.3830
SL: 1.3850
TP: 1.3780 → 1.3750 → 1.3700 → 1.3650
🎯 TRADE STRATEGY
If BoC holds rates with a dovish bias, USDCAD may rally sharply toward 1.3824 and potentially higher.
If BoC surprises with hawkish comments, CAD strength may push the pair lower, targeting the 1.36 handle.
Traders should be cautious around 1.3690 – this is the pivot zone for the week.
📌 CONCLUSION
“The BoC’s decision may already be priced in – but the true volatility could come from Governor Macklem’s press conference. Any hint regarding Trump’s trade policies could trigger sharp moves. Stick to clean key levels and protect your capital.”
PMI Divergence & ECB Rate Decision Looms:0.84 Key Level in PlayEURGBP 04/06 – PMI Divergence & ECB Rate Decision Looms: 0.84 Key Level in Play
EUR/GBP is hovering around the 0.8420 mark after mixed PMI releases from the Eurozone and Germany. Traders are cautiously awaiting the ECB’s interest rate decision this Thursday, while the Bank of England signals potential easing — but remains non-committal on timing.
🌍 MACRO OUTLOOK
Eurozone & German PMI:
Eurozone Composite PMI eased to 50.2, still above forecasts (49.5) but reflecting slowing momentum.
German Composite dropped to 48.5; Services fell further to 47.1 — signaling contraction risk in Europe’s largest economy.
ECB Dovish Expectations:
Core inflation fell to 1.9% YoY in May — below the 2% ECB target for the first time in eight months.
Markets are fully pricing in a 25bps rate cut this week.
BoE Shifts Cautiously Dovish:
Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged that monetary easing is likely, but warned of "uncertainty ahead."
The MPC is split — some fear sticky inflation; others warn that rates staying too high too long may damage growth.
Market Sentiment:
EUR remains pressured by ECB dovish expectations.
GBP is also under pressure from weak UK macro indicators and global trade tensions.
📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1 Chart)
Price is consolidating near the EMA200 (0.8409) — a crucial dynamic support.
A tight sideways range has formed; 0.8408 is a key horizontal level to watch for breakout/breakdown confirmation.
Break below 0.8408 could send price toward Fibo 1.618 at 0.8383 or psychological support at 0.8373.
If bulls defend 0.8408, we may see a bounce toward 0.8429 → 0.8449 resistance zone.
🔑 KEY TRADE ZONES
🟢 BUY ZONE: 0.8380 – 0.8373
SL: 0.8358
TP: 0.8400 → 0.8415 → 0.8429 → 0.8435
🔴 SELL ZONE: 0.8448 – 0.8450
SL: 0.8460
TP: 0.8435 → 0.8420 → 0.8408 → 0.8388
⚠️ TRADE STRATEGY
Watch the 0.8408 area closely. If price holds → short-term BUY scalp opportunities.
If it breaks strongly → consider SELL toward lower Fibo/structure levels at 0.838x.
Be cautious around ECB release — avoid trading during the spike. Wait for structure confirmation post-news.
📌 CONCLUSION
"EUR/GBP is entering a critical zone near 0.8400. With ECB and BoE both leaning dovish, expect increased volatility. Hold or break at this key level will likely define the next directional leg. Stay patient and let the market show its hand."
GBPUSD – Is the Recovery Losing Steam? GBPUSD – Is the Recovery Losing Steam? Watch for Technical Pullback Ahead of NFP
The GBPUSD pair has recently rebounded impressively from the 1.3427 key support zone, reflecting short-term USD weakness and growing speculation of rate cuts by the Fed. However, after the strong bullish move, the market is now showing signs of exhaustion and potential profit-taking—especially with high-impact US employment data just around the corner.
🔍 Macro & Fundamental Overview:
United States: All eyes are on this week’s JOLTS and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reports. Weak jobs data could strengthen the case for rate cuts by the Fed in Q3, weighing on the US Dollar. On the flip side, a solid print would revive “higher for longer” rate expectations and likely support USD strength.
United Kingdom: Although inflation remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target, political uncertainty ahead of July’s general election may keep GBP on the defensive, especially if BoE signals a dovish turn.
Bond Yield Spread (UK vs US): A widening spread in favor of the USD is exerting downward pressure on GBPUSD in the medium term.
📈 Technical Outlook (H1 Chart):
Structure: Price has formed a double-top pattern at 1.35598 and 1.35322, with multiple rejections—signaling a weakening bullish momentum after a sustained rally.
EMA 13 – 34 – 89 – 200 Setup: Price is currently testing the EMA89 zone (~1.34854). A clean break below this moving average could accelerate the downside correction.
FVG Zone (Liquidity Pool): The 1.3427 – 1.3457 area offers a potential liquidity sweep and may serve as a springboard for the next bullish leg.
📊 Trade Scenarios:
🔻 Short-Term SELL SCALP:
Entry: 1.3532 – 1.3545
Stop Loss: 1.3565
Take Profit: 1.3485 → 1.3457 → 1.3427
→ Ideal if price fails to hold above recent highs and forms bearish rejection candles.
🔵 BUY ZONE Setup:
Entry: 1.3427 – 1.3440
Stop Loss: 1.3400
Take Profit: 1.3475 → 1.3505 → 1.3535 → 1.3555
→ High-probability entry if price reacts positively to the FVG zone and maintains bullish structure.
📌 Final Thoughts:
GBPUSD is currently in a delicate zone where both technical and macro forces are converging. While the broader trend remains bullish, momentum is slowing. With critical US jobs data due, traders should stay cautious and rely on clear confirmations around key price levels. Maintain strict risk management and look for liquidity-driven moves around FVG zones.
EURUSD – Retracement Expected Before Further UpsideEURUSD – Retracement Expected Before Further Upside
The EURUSD pair has seen strong bullish momentum over the past two days, mainly driven by the weakening U.S. dollar. Last week’s softer-than-expected U.S. Core PCE and PMI data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may hold rates steady for longer, weighing on USD sentiment.
However, with upcoming speeches from FOMC members and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data due later this week, traders may look to take profit or step aside, leading to a short-term retracement before any continuation of the bullish trend.
🔍 Macro & Fundamental Overview:
USD remains under pressure amid declining inflation signals and weakening economic data.
ECB is expected to cut rates, but at a slower pace than the Fed, creating a divergence that supports the Euro in the near term.
Political uncertainties in the EU, including upcoming elections, are worth monitoring.
📉 Technical Analysis:
The medium-term trend remains bullish with EMA 13–34–89–200 aligned to the upside.
Price is currently reacting at the 0.0 FIBO level (1.1420), suggesting a potential pullback.
Key support lies between 1.1345 – 1.1317. If this zone holds, it could serve as a solid base for a bullish continuation.
🧭 Suggested Trade Scenarios:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 1.1317 – 1.1345
SL: 1.1285
TP: 1.1370 → 1.1400 → 1.1420 → 1.1450+
🔻 SELL ZONE (Short-term counter-trade): 1.1418 – 1.1425
SL: 1.1450
TP: 1.1385 → 1.1350 → 1.1320
Will the Dollar’s Drop Fuel More Gold Upside After Weak PCE DXY OUTLOOK – Will the Dollar’s Drop Fuel More Gold Upside After Weak PCE and Trade Tensions?
📉 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – DXY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has failed to hold the 99.20–99.30 support zone and continues to respect its bearish structure on the H2 chart. The sharp sell-off at the end of May was a direct response to weaker-than-expected PCE inflation data, combined with growing political uncertainty surrounding US–China and US–EU trade negotiations.
🔻 Key Resistance Levels: 99.234 – 99.618
🔻 Key Support Zone: 98.030 – A clean break below this may open the door toward 97.50
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT – USD UNDER PRESSURE ON MULTIPLE FRONTS
Trump’s tariff decisions remain unclear. While some deadlines were delayed (e.g., steel tariffs on the EU), no substantial agreements have been reached.
Core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge – continues to ease, reducing expectations of further rate hikes in the short term.
Institutional flows are shifting toward safe havens like gold, especially as uncertainty clouds the outlook for both US fiscal and trade policy.
📊 IMPACT ON XAUUSD – DOLLAR DROP GIVES GOLD ROOM TO RALLY
Gold remains supported by:
A weakening DXY trend
A bullish structure on H1 with EMA 13–34–89–200 alignment in favor of upside
Strong safe-haven demand heading into a new month with fresh capital inflows
If DXY breaks below 98.70 and slides toward 98.030, gold could extend its rally toward key resistance zones at 3348 – 3361.
🎯 TRADING STRATEGY (Based on DXY Bearish Continuation):
Prioritize buy setups on XAUUSD if DXY fails to reclaim the 99.23 resistance
Watch for a potential DXY pullback to resistance – if rejected, this would confirm momentum for gold to climb further
📌 NOTE: Traders should stay alert to any major news from the Fed or new developments in US–China–EU trade talks. While the current DXY structure favors continued downside, short-term pullbacks can provide gold with consolidation before another leg higher.
GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS & DOLLAR FATIGUE SUPPORT GOLDMACRO CONTEXT – GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS & DOLLAR FATIGUE SUPPORT GOLD
US-China trade friction is heating up, and ongoing tax negotiations with the EU have stalled. Investors are growing wary of prolonged policy uncertainties.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has pulled back from recent highs, with market expectations cooling on aggressive Fed policy.
Gold is regaining safe-haven status amid rising geopolitical noise and weakening risk appetite early in June.
📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – STRUCTURE FLIP & RETEST POTENTIAL
A clear breakout above the descending trendline and multiple moving averages (EMA 13–34–89–200) confirms strong short-term bullish structure.
Institutional footprints likely evident from the Asian session impulse candle.
The next upside targets lie at 3,348 and 3,361, with high probability of a retest toward breakout zones.
🔑 KEY PRICE ZONES & STRATEGY
🟢 BUY ZONE ON RETEST:
Entry: 3,325 – 3,322
Stop-Loss: 3,317
Take-Profit: 3,330 → 3,340 → 3,348 → 3,361
🔴 SELL ZONE (OVEREXTENSION SCENARIO):
Entry: 3,361 – 3,364
Stop-Loss: 3,370
Take-Profit: 3,355 → 3,348 → 3,340 → 3,330
📌 STRATEGIC NOTES
As long as 3,322 holds as support, buyers remain in control.
A clean retest of this zone may present a prime long opportunity.
Failure to hold may lead to a drop toward the EMA confluence between 3,301 – 3,294, where buyers could reload.
✅ Conclusion: Gold has flipped bullish with a convincing breakout. Traders should favor buy-the-dip setups while monitoring resistance at 3,348 – 3,361 for potential profit-taking or short-term reversals.
USDJPY 4H Analysis – Market Dynamics ChangingDear Traders,
Guys, the bearish trend in USDJPY has now shifted into a bullish uptrend. My target level for USDJPY is 146.330. Once it reaches my target, I will share updates under this post.
Friends, every single like from you is my biggest source of motivation when it comes to sharing my analysis.
A huge thank you to everyone who supports me with their likes!
Gold Drops $30 in Asia as Month-End Profit Taking Hits Hard XAUUSD PLAN – Gold Drops $30 in Asia as Month-End Profit Taking Hits Hard
After a sharp rebound candle yesterday, gold unexpectedly reversed in the Asian session, plunging over $30 as market participants rushed to exit positions ahead of the monthly close. The move reflects strong technical rejection and potential macro pressure.
🌐 MACRO OUTLOOK – US-CHINA TRADE TENSIONS BACK IN FOCUS
Trade negotiations between the US and China are showing renewed signs of strain, especially around tariff policies.
The uncertainty has not triggered safe-haven flows into gold—a sign of waning momentum.
Dollar Index (DXY) remains range-bound, offering no clear direction.
Broad market sentiment indicates institutional cash-out behavior ahead of the weekly and monthly candle closes.
📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – BEARISH STRUCTURE STILL INTACT
Gold is respecting a downward sloping channel on the H1 timeframe.
Price failed to hold above EMA 200, reinforcing bearish bias.
EMA 13 – 34 – 89 – 200 are in bearish alignment, showing continued downside momentum.
Support at 3274 – 3276 is a key reaction zone for potential scalping opportunities.
🔑 KEY PRICE LEVELS TO WATCH
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3322 – 3324
Stop-Loss: 3328
Take-Profit: 3318 → 3314 → 3310 → 3306 → 3300 → 3295 → 3290 → 3280
🟢 BUY ZONE: 3266 – 3264
Stop-Loss: 3260
Take-Profit: 3270 → 3274 → 3278 → 3282 → 3286 → 3290 → 3300
⚡ BONUS SCALP SETUPS
Support Zone 3274 – 3276 → Look for bullish rejection for a quick BUY SCALP (Target: 50 pips / SL: 50 pips)
Resistance Zones 3302 – 3304 and 3310 → Watch for early rejection to enter SELL SCALP, with extended downside targets.
📌 STRATEGY NOTES
Priority: Short-term sell bias unless price reclaims 3310 with momentum.
Avoid trading in the mid-range; wait for price to reach key reaction zones.
Today’s structure favors liquidity sweeps, so patience and disciplined entries are crucial—especially during London and NY overlap.
EURUSD PLAN – Is the Rebound Just a Pause Before the Drop? EURUSD PLAN – Is the Rebound Just a Pause Before the Drop? | All Eyes on PCE
📊 MACRO OUTLOOK:
Following the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, but maintained a hawkish tone. Chair Powell reiterated that inflation remains too sticky to consider rate cuts in the near term.
Markets now await this week’s US PCE data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — which could provide the next major catalyst for USD strength or weakness.
On the Euro side, weak consumer confidence and tepid growth have strengthened expectations for an ECB rate cut in June. This divergence in monetary policy is weighing on the Euro, as the Dollar finds new demand amid global risk recalibration.
📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1):
EURUSD has broken down from recent highs near 1.1412 and is now forming a bearish retracement pattern.
Price has broken below the 89-EMA and 200-EMA, signaling bearish structure.
Current price action suggests a temporary bounce from the 1.1260–1.1280 support zone (Fibo 38.2%–50%), but the broader trend remains bearish.
Fibonacci retracement from recent swing lows highlights 1.1338 and 1.1372 as key resistance levels to watch.
🔑 KEY TECHNICAL ZONES:
Resistance Zones:
• 1.1313 – Minor intraday level (Fibo 0.5)
• 1.1338 – EMA confluence + former structure
• 1.1372 – Major rejection zone (previous distribution top)
Support Zones:
• 1.1280 – 1.1260 – Current support bounce area
• 1.1220 – Key liquidity sweep zone
🧭 TRADE STRATEGY:
Scenario A – Sell the Pullback:
• Wait for a rebound into the 1.1313 – 1.1338 zone
• Enter SELL if bearish rejection forms
• SL: 1.1376
• TP: 1.1280 → 1.1260 → 1.1220
Scenario B – Invalid Breakout:
• If price breaks above 1.1372 with momentum, this plan is invalidated — wait for a confirmed breakout retest.
Scenario C – Reactive Buy Scalp:
• If price shows strong rejection from 1.1260 again, scalpers may consider a temporary BUY back toward 1.1300–1.1310
• This is high-risk and counter-trend.
⚠️ STRATEGIC NOTES:
EURUSD remains in a bearish bias until major resistance levels are broken. With PCE data approaching, volatility is likely. Trade setups should be based on confirmation signals and managed tightly as macro data can shift momentum rapidly.
XAUUSD – Post-FOMC Trading Plan | Key Resistance: 3308 – 3310XAUUSD – Post-FOMC Trading Plan | Key Resistance: 3308 – 3310
📊 MACRO UPDATE – After the FOMC Decision:
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but the tone remained hawkish. Chairman Powell reiterated that inflation remains too high and ruled out any near-term rate cuts, signaling prolonged restrictive policy.
This led to a swift rebound in the US Dollar and Treasury yields, weighing on gold. However, XAUUSD bounced back late in the session, suggesting the market is re-evaluating key technical zones post-announcement.
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – H1/H4 Chart Structure:
Gold remains in a corrective descending structure but is now reacting around key Fibonacci levels. The 13–34–89 EMAs provide dynamic support and resistance, and a potential double bottom has formed near the 3245–3247 zone.
🧠 Two key levels to watch:
3308–3310: major resistance with trendline + FVG confluence
3245–3247: strong horizontal support + Fib 0.618 retracement
🎯 TRADE SETUPS:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3247 – 3245
Stop-Loss: 3241
Take-Profit: 3251 → 3255 → 3260 → 3264 → 3270 → 3275 → 3280
🔵 BUY SCALP: 3263 – 3261
Stop-Loss: 3257
Take-Profit: 3266 → 3270 → 3275 → 3280 → 3290 → 3300
🔴 SELL SCALP: 3294 – 3296
Stop-Loss: 3300
Take-Profit: 3290 → 3286 → 3282 → 3278 → 3274 → 3270 → 3260
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3308 – 3310
Stop-Loss: 3314
Take-Profit: 3304 → 3300 → 3296 → 3292 → 3288 → 3280
📌 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK:
Unless price breaks above 3310 with strong momentum, sellers are still in control short term. Any rejection from the resistance zone could offer clean short entries. A breakout, however, would shift sentiment and expose 3340–3360 next.
Patience is key — let price react before committing to entries.
Will Gold Break Through 3366 or Collapse Before NFP? XAUUSD PLAN – MAY 26 | Will Gold Break Through 3366 or Collapse Before NFP?
Gold is approaching a key resistance zone as geopolitical uncertainty and shifting Fed signals add volatility to global markets. While recent bullish momentum has been strong, traders should prepare for potential shakeouts ahead of NFP week.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
US–Iran Tensions on the Rise: Iran has warned the US it will bear full responsibility if Israel attacks its nuclear facilities. This comes just days before both sides are scheduled to resume nuclear negotiations, increasing the risk of escalation.
Goldman Sachs Signals a Safe-Haven Shift: With 20-year US bond auctions failing and yields surging, Goldman Sachs now recommends gold and Bitcoin as core hedge assets against fiscal instability and a weakening dollar.
DXY Losing Steam: The US Dollar Index is cooling off after a short-term rally, with Fed rate hike expectations becoming less certain.
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – XAUUSD (M30 – H1)
Gold is consolidating in a bullish structure, bouncing within a rising channel and showing signs of potential continuation.
EMA13/EMA34 have crossed above EMA200 on the M30 chart → a sign of trend strength building.
A large Fair Value Gap (FVG) remains unfilled near 3360–3395 → potential magnet zone if bullish breakout succeeds.
🎯 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY
🟢 BUY SCALP
Entry: 3304 – 3302
SL: 3298
TP: 3308 → 3312 → 3316 → 3320 → 3325 → 3330 → 3340
🟢 BUY ZONE
Entry: 3276 – 3274
SL: 3270
TP: 3280 → 3284 → 3288 → 3292 → 3296 → 3300
🔴 SELL SCALP
Entry: 3344 – 3346
SL: 3350
TP: 3340 → 3336 → 3332 → 3328 → 3324 → 3320
🔴 SELL ZONE
Entry: 3376 – 3378
SL: 3382
TP: 3372 → 3368 → 3364 → 3360 → 3350
🧩 STRATEGIC KEYLEVELS
Key SELL Zone: 3358–3360 → If broken, gold may rush toward ATH targets.
Key BUY Zone: 3276–3274 → If lost, a deep retracement below 3200 is likely.
⚠️ NOTES TO TRADERS
This is a geo-politically sensitive market. Sudden news or tweets can trigger explosive moves.
Always wait for confirmation near key zones. Don't chase breakouts without structure.
Risk management is critical.
✅ SUMMARY:
"Political risk is the fuel. Gold is the fire. Stay sharp around the key levels and don't get caught in false breakouts. Be reactive, not predictive."
USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus
📌 MARKET OVERVIEW
USDCHF is currently consolidating within a tight range after a technical rebound from the 0.8226 support zone. The price is testing a confluence area at the descending trendline and the 200 EMA on the H2 chart, indicating indecision between bulls and bears as we head into the high-impact FOMC event.
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – H2 CHART
Overall Trend: Sideways corrective move within a broader downtrend channel. Price is approaching critical resistance at the EMA200 and the channel’s upper boundary.
EMAs in focus: EMA13 (black), EMA34 (orange), EMA89 (red).
Fibonacci Retracement: Price is hovering around the 0.5 fib zone (0.8298), a neutral level for potential reaction.
🎯 Key Levels & Trade Scenarios:
Major Resistance Zone: 0.8330 – 0.8368 → aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and previous structural high.
Key Support Zone: 0.8226 → strong demand area. A break below this could expose deeper downside or set up a false break trap.
📌 Most Likely Path:
Price could dip back to 0.8226 before launching a bullish recovery targeting 0.8330 – 0.8368.
A clean breakout above 0.8368 with momentum and volume could invalidate the bearish bias and shift the trend mid-term.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
FOMC IN FOCUS: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at the upcoming meeting. However, market attention will be on Powell’s tone. A hawkish stance could fuel further USD strength, propelling USDCHF toward resistance zones.
SNB (Swiss National Bank) maintains a neutral tone with slight disinflationary concerns, offering limited support for the CHF and strengthening the USDCHF upside case.
US Treasury Yields are showing signs of recovery, adding bullish pressure to USD pairs.
📌 TRADING STRATEGY:
Watch for bullish reaction at 0.8226 – potential long setup if RSI divergence appears.
Short-term targets: 0.8330 → 0.8368.
Breakout Strategy: If price clears 0.8368 with conviction, shift bias to bullish continuation and monitor for FVG or trendline breakout alignment.
📣 Stay sharp for increased volatility around FOMC. Position sizing and discipline are key in macro-heavy weeks like this.
USDJPY PLAN – Will FOMC Be the Next Big Catalyst?USDJPY PLAN – Will FOMC Be the Next Big Catalyst?
💬 After several sessions of sideways movement, USDJPY is showing signs of a potential breakout, supported by both technical signals and macro fundamentals. As the FOMC meeting approaches, the market is poised for a major shift — making this the perfect time to prepare actionable trade plans.
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Primary Trend: Short-term bullish retracement within a broader downtrend – currently testing the 200 EMA on H2.
EMAs in use: EMA13 (black), EMA34 (orange), EMA89 (red) – effective dynamic support/resistance indicators.
Key Resistance Levels:
145.35: Major confluence zone with 0.618 Fibonacci and trendline resistance.
146.11 – 147.20: Previous highs and Fibonacci extension targets.
Key Support Zones:
144.61: EMA200 acting as immediate pressure point.
143.43 – 143.02: Crucial demand zone with strong reaction expected on pullback.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS
FOMC Outlook: With recent CPI data softening and labor numbers moderating, markets anticipate a hold on rates. However, any hawkish tone from Chair Powell could trigger a sharp bullish move on USDJPY.
BOJ’s Dovish Stance: The Bank of Japan remains accommodative, showing no clear intent to hike rates. This weakens the Yen and supports mid-term upward momentum for USDJPY.
Interest Rate Differentials & Carry Trade Flows continue to drive volatility and directional bias in this pair.
🎯 TRADE SETUP SUGGESTION
If price breaks and sustains above 144.61 (EMA200): look to BUY on pullback toward 144.15–144.20, targeting 145.35 and 146.11.
If price gets rejected at 145.35: consider a short-term SELL toward 144.00 – 143.43 for a corrective leg.
⚠️ STRATEGY NOTE:
Avoid entering right at the time of the FOMC release. Wait for post-event confirmation. Prioritize strong breakouts or rejections, and manage risk carefully under volatile conditions.
GBPNZD Is Very Bullish! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for GBPNZD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 2.262.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 2.298 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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AUDJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for AUDJPY.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 92.915.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 92.593 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Double Top Alert: Key Resistance at 1.3570 Before US PCE DataGBPUSD PLAN – MAY 27 | Double Top Alert: Key Resistance at 1.3570 Before US PCE Data
GBPUSD is currently testing a critical resistance zone near 1.3570, forming a potential Double Top pattern. As markets await this week’s US Core PCE inflation release, the pair may be at risk of a short-term pullback.
🌍 MACRO FUNDAMENTALS
USD Rebounds Slightly ahead of April’s PCE inflation report – a key Fed inflation gauge due this Friday.
GBP Under Pressure as dovish tones from Bank of England (BoE) officials signal a potential pause in rate hikes.
UK Political Uncertainty and sluggish EU-UK trade talks continue to dampen investor confidence in the pound.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Price Structure: GBPUSD surged from 1.3446 support but is now facing resistance near 1.3570, where a Double Top formation is emerging.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.3570 – 1.3580 (previous high and psychological barrier)
Support 1: 1.3496 (confluence of EMA89 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
Support 2: 1.3446
Indicators:
EMA13, EMA34 show early signs of bearish crossover on the 30-minute chart.
RSI approaches overbought territory, hinting at potential bearish divergence.
🎯 TRADE SETUP (IF PRICE REJECTS 1.3570)
🔻 SELL SETUP
Entry: 1.3570 – 1.3550
Stop-Loss: 1.3595
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.3496
TP2: 1.3446
📌 A bullish breakout only becomes valid if price closes strongly above 1.3590 on the H1 chart.
🧠 STRATEGIC NOTES
Wait for a clear reaction or bearish confirmation near 1.3570 before entering trades.
Avoid chasing trades mid-range; focus on clean breakouts or rejections.
PCE data may trigger volatility — manage risk tightly and prepare for directional momentum.
👉 What do you think of this Double Top scenario? Will GBPUSD reject or break through resistance? Drop your analysis below and follow for daily structured plans!
SELLERS TAKE CONTROL – BUYERS WAITING BELOW 3300? XAUUSD TRADING PLAN – 27/05 | SELLERS TAKE CONTROL – BUYERS WAITING BELOW 3300?
Gold has sharply reversed after failing to break through the key 3364 – 3366 resistance zone. Price action now suggests a corrective structure is in play, potentially setting the stage for further downside before NFP week.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance with U.S. 10-year yields holding above 4.5%, placing short-term pressure on safe-haven assets like gold.
U.S.–EU Trade Tensions have temporarily eased after Trump postponed 50% tariffs on EU goods until July 9. However, this pause may be short-lived, keeping geopolitical risk priced into gold.
Key data this week will influence market sentiment:
• U.S. Core PCE (April) – critical for inflation outlook
• EU HICP (May) – will shape ECB rate cut expectations for June
Gold remains caught between macro-driven demand and technical exhaustion — creating opportunities for range-based trading.
📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1/H4)
Price broke below the rising trendline and is now trading under the EMA 13, 34, and 89, confirming a bearish shift in short-term momentum.
The 3284 – 3286 region aligns with a previous Fair Value Gap (FVG), EMA200 (H4), and structural support — a strong potential buy zone.
If this level fails, deeper pullback toward the 3247 – 3250 region (major FVG zone) becomes likely.
🔑 TRADE SETUP ZONES
🟢 PRIMARY BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3286 – 3284
Stop-Loss: 3280
Take-Profit: 3290 → 3294 → 3298 → 3302 → 3310 → 3320
🟢 BUY SCALP:
Entry: 3298 – 3296
Stop-Loss: 3292
Take-Profit: 3302 → 3306 → 3310 → 3314 → 3320 → 3330
🔴 SELL SCALP:
Entry: 3346 – 3348
Stop-Loss: 3350
Take-Profit: 3342 → 3338 → 3334 → 3330 → 3320 → 3310
🔴 STRONG SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3364 – 3366
Stop-Loss: 3370
Take-Profit: 3360 → 3356 → 3352 → 3348 → 3344 → 3340 → 3330
⚠️ STRATEGIC INSIGHTS
Selling on retracements below 3348 is favorable unless a strong breakout above 3366 occurs.
Buying is only valid near 3284 with confirmation of bullish structure (EMA support bounce or bullish engulfing pattern).
Avoid trading the mid-range between 3310–3330 unless a clear reversal setup forms — price action here remains noisy and indecisive.
EUR/NZD Short and CAD/JPY ShortEUR/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation forms, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation forms, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
CAD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 14USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 144
🌍 Macro Landscape: JPY Stuck Between Two Diverging Forces
In recent weeks, the US dollar has regained strength as the Federal Reserve remains committed to its "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance. On the flip side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, widening the yield spread between the USD and JPY, and putting pressure on the yen.
The surge in US 10-year yields toward 4.5% is further dampening demand for JPY as a safe haven, prompting institutional capital outflows from the yen and inflows into USD-based assets.
🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence: Fed Remains Firm, BoJ Stays Dovish
Federal Reserve: FOMC members continue to signal patience on rate cuts. Recent inflation data (PCE, CPI) shows sticky price pressure, especially in services.
Bank of Japan: BoJ remains hesitant to normalize policy despite inflation consistently above the 2% target.
This policy divergence is reminiscent of the conditions that pushed USDJPY above 151 last year — and current dynamics hint that history may repeat.
🌐 Capital Flows: JPY Loses Safe-Haven Appeal
Global capital flow models indicate a major shift. While gold and the US dollar are once again sought-after hedges amid US-China tensions and EU fiscal risk, the Japanese yen is being overlooked.
Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio — the highest in the G7 — forces BoJ to maintain low rates to keep the fiscal structure sustainable. As a result, JPY is no longer viewed as a reliable store of safety.
📊 Technical Structure: Momentum Building Toward 144.1
On the H1 chart:
Price bounced sharply from the 142.33 demand zone, forming a higher low.
EMA 13 – 34 – 89 show a bullish alignment ("fan-out formation") confirming short-term bullish momentum.
Resistance near 144.13–144.20 is key: a clean breakout could trigger an extended rally to 145.00+
However, this zone may also trigger profit-taking, especially if traders react to upcoming macro data.
🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations
Scenario 1 – Buy the Pullback (Preferred):
Entry: 142.70 – 142.90
Stop-Loss: 142.30
Take-Profit: 143.80 → 144.13 → 144.60
Scenario 2 – Breakout Momentum Buy:
Entry: 144.15
Stop-Loss: 143.70
Take-Profit: 145.00 → 145.50
⚠️ Key Events to Watch:
US PCE Price Index (April): If hotter-than-expected, this would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone and lift USD.
BoJ Governor Speech (end of week): Any unexpected hawkish shift could trigger a short-term rebound in JPY.
Pullback or Deeper Reversal After False Breakout Near 1.1425? EUR/USD Weekly Plan: Pullback or Deeper Reversal After False Breakout Near 1.1425?
🧭 MARKET OVERVIEW
EUR/USD surged toward a new monthly high at 1.1425 earlier this week but quickly lost momentum and retraced to the 1.137x zone as the US Dollar bounced back. While the short-term recovery in DXY supported the dip, macro uncertainty surrounding Trump’s erratic trade policies continues to raise questions about the dollar’s long-term credibility.
Meanwhile, Germany’s revised Q1 GDP growth of 0.4% (vs. 0.2% prior) helped support EUR, reinforcing its appeal as a safe alternative to the greenback.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 Chart)
Main Trend: Short-term correction after strong bullish rally
Resistance Levels:
1.14165 → Previous top, strong reversal zone
1.14017 → Minor supply zone
Support Levels:
1.13476 → Key break structure zone
1.12791 → Daily demand zone & previous FVG bottom
Indicators:
EMA 20 & EMA 50 crossover signals weakening bullish momentum
Price Pattern: Potential double top forming below 1.1425
🌐 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
Trump’s tariff threat postponed to July 9, but his unpredictable tone weakens USD trust.
Germany Q1 GDP upgraded to 0.4% → boosts confidence in Eurozone’s economic resilience.
ECB expected to cut rates in June, with policymakers showing confidence inflation will reach 2% target this year.
This week’s key focus:
→ US PCE Price Index (April)
→ EU May HICP (CPI)
These will drive short-term volatility and determine breakout/reversal confirmation.
✅ TRADE SETUPS
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 1.1400–1.1416
SL: 1.1440
TP: 1.1382 → 1.1347 → 1.1279
🟢 BUY SCALP ZONE:
Entry: 1.1345–1.1347
SL: 1.1320
TP: 1.1382 → 1.1400
📌 Preferred scenario: Look for bearish confirmation around 1.1400–1.1416 to enter short. Avoid aggressive buys unless price strongly holds above 1.1384.
🧩 CONCLUSION
EUR/USD is showing signs of exhaustion after testing 1.1425. If bears reclaim 1.1384 and hold below 1.1347, deeper correction toward 1.1279 is likely. Conversely, if bulls defend 1.1345 and CPI/PCE data disappoints, price may retest highs.