Trade report of 20-7It's holiday time. This can be seen in the leaps that are made when a news fact is presented. Today the following data are known:
AUD Employment Change is 32.6K expected 15.4K was 76.5K
AUD Unemployment Rate is 3.5% expected 3.6% was 3.5%
USD Unemployment Claims is 228K expected 239K was 237K
Both good news for the AUD and for the USD. If you look at the Dollar index you immediately see a jump up and the Dollar climbs out of the trough that had a low on July 13. We see in our positions that it is correcting. Today's actions:
#S&P500 : due to the lower rate of unemployment application in the US, a correction is taking place. We have an SL at 4545.9 and now assume that this is sufficient for the correction.
Gold : we put in a buy yesterday and it was in jeopardy because of today's news but it recovered again.
CADJPY : we move the buy at 106.867 to 106.7.
NZDUSD : not for today's figures but for the trend of the past few days indicates that our buy at 0.64020 is not feasible but that a sell trade is much more interesting. Our rating system gives a buy signal of +4 based on, among other things, seasonal influences and trend measurement. We are going for a sell at 0.62095, the midpoint of the channel in which the pair has been moving for a while.
AUDCHF : on a monthly basis, between June and July, we see a low and high that gives us the opportunity to put in a buy but still at a distance because the pair must first prove that the trend has changed. We put it in at 0.59411
AUDNZD : new buy deposited at 1.09151.
GBPCAD : The pair currently has a score of +2, or a neutral rating after adding up all categories. The institutional traders give the GBP a long rate of 67.57%, and we see that the CAD has a long rate of 53.38%. This category gets a +1, as institutional traders prefer GBP.
If we look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to decline this month.
Trend measurement is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8 and 21 exponential moving average. The more "aligned" they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at the basics. GDP growth is favorable for CAD, inflation is favorable for GBP, unemployment is favorable for GBP, and interest rates are favorable for none. We are going to follow the trend anyway and put a sell at 1,685.
GBPUSD : The pair currently has a score of -1, or a neutral rating after adding up all categories. First, let's take a look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that the GBP has a long rate of 67.57%, and we see that the USD has a long rate of 70.38%. This category gets a 0, as institutional traders do not have a strong preference.
If we look at GBPUSD, we see that retailers are 59% long and 41% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is extremely read by retailers. If the shoppers are 60% or more on one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, the GBPUSD gets a value of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very tall, we look at short, and vice versa.
If we look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to decline this month.
Trend measurement is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8 and 21 exponential moving average. The more "aligned" they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at the basics. GDP growth is favorable for the USD, inflation is favorable for GBP, unemployment is favorable for USD, and interest rates are favorable for USD. We put a sell in at 1.28211.
EURGBP : The pair currently has a score of 0, or a neutral rating after adding up all categories. First, let's take a look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that the EUR has a long percentage of 72.71%, and we see that the GBP has a long percentage of 67.57%. This category gets a 0, as institutional traders do not have a strong preference.
If we look at EURGBP, we see that retailers are 21% long and 79% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is extremely read by retailers. If the shoppers are 60% or more on one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, the EURGBP is given a value of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very tall, we look at short, and vice versa.
If we look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise this month.
Trend measurement is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8 and 21 exponential moving average. The more "aligned" they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at the basics. GDP growth is favorable for GBP, inflation is favorable for GBP, unemployment is favorable for GBP, and interest rates are favorable for GBP. We still put a buy in together with the trend at 0.87020.
Trading-forex
EUR/AUD Short and CAD/JPY ShortEUR/AUD Short
• If price corrects and a larger three touch one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
CAD/JPY Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Trade report of 19-7Today's news:
NZD CPI q/q Is: 1.1% Expected: 0.9% Was: 1.2%
GBP CPI y/y Is: 7.9% Expected: 8.2% Was: 8.7%
USD Housing Starts Is: 1.43M Expected: 1.48M Was: 1.56M
Another negative figure which encourages the FED to raise interest rates.
Nevertheless; the U.S. dollar rebounded on Wednesday after inflation in the U.K. cooled more than economists had expected in June, sending the pound down sharply against other major currencies. Britain's inflation rate was the lowest in more than a year at 7.9%, according to data that will ease some of the pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising interest rates sharply. Economists polled by Reuters had typically predicted a smaller slowdown, to 8.2% in the 12 months to June, compared with the 8.7% in May. "It was the first time in five months that inflation surprised downwards, the trend was exactly the opposite," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington D.C. Jumbo rate hike next month by the Bank of England. Before Wednesday's data, investors had estimated a roughly 60% chance that the BoE would raise interest rates by half a percentage point on Aug. 3. That turned into a 60% chance of a quarter-percentage point increase after the data. "The dollar is getting a reprieve because it's the inflation data that really dictates sentiment, the dollar was tormented by cooler inflation last week and now it's the pound's turn today," Manimbo added.
Our actions today:
EURUSD : The Dollar plummeted last week after consumer and producer price increases slowed in June, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates after a generally expected 25 basis point increase at its July 25-26 meeting. But Fed fund futures traders are still counting on 33 basis points of additional tightening, with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.40% in November. As a result, interest in the Dollar increased again today. Our buy trade has come under pressure.
EURNZD : the uptrend stopped today. But that does make for a nice entry point at 1.79870.
USDJPY : Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that there is still some distance to reach the central bank's inflation target of 2% sustainably and stably, indicating his determination to pursue an ultra-loose monetary policy for now.
AUDUSD : Our rating system displays the following: currently a score of 0, or a neutral rating after adding up all categories. First, let's take a look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that the AUD has a long rate of 32.98% and we see that the USD has a long rate of 70.38%. This category gets a -2,
If we look at AUDSUND, we see that retailers are 55% long and 45% short. Currently, the AUDUSD gets a value of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very tall, we look at short, and vice versa.
If we look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise this month.
Trend measurement is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8 and 21 exponential moving average. The more "aligned" they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at the basics. GDP growth is in favor of the USD, inflation in favor of the AUD, unemployment in favor of none, and interest rates in favor of the USD. We put a sell at 0.66733.
CADJPY : neutral assessment after adding up all categories. Institutional traders buy/sell +1, as institutional traders prefer the CAD.
Retailers Score 0. Seasonality, +1. Trend measurement -2. GDP growth is favorable for the CAD, inflation is favorable for the JPY, unemployment is favorable for the JPY, and interest rates are favorable for the CAD.
We have put a buy in at midpoint of the high and low of this pair in recent weeks, 106867.
GOLD : XAUUSD currently has a score of +4, or a buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's take a look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that the gold has a long percentage of 76.28%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 70.38%. This category gets a +1, as institutional traders prefer gold.
If we look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise this month.
Trend measurement is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8 and 21 exponential moving average. The more "aligned" they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at the basics. The index experienced higher GDP growth, inflation was higher than in the previous report, unemployment was higher this month and interest rates remained the same last time. Buy deposited on 1979.17.
EUR/USD Short, USD/JPY Short and CAD/JPY ShortEUR/USD Short
• If price impulses down below our rayline, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/JPY Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
CAD/JPY Short
• If price pushes up above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Trade report of 18-7Store sales are again lower than expected in the US. 0.2% with an expectation of 0.5%. Technically, that means fewer Dollars are needed. This can be seen with the Dollar index. We do see that reflected in the shares. The US30 is running out today. But the contrast of the Dollar, Gold, is rising nicely. Here are today's actions:
#S&P500 : we sold the buy on 4504.1 at a profit and put in a new buy at 4570.
Silver : Due to the weak dollar, Gold and Silver remain interesting. We put in a new buy at 25,175. We put in a second buy at 25.5.
Here's today's portfolio:
13/07/2023 1:23 PM Buy EURUSD Open: 1.1184
07.14.2023 13:30 XAGUSD Buy Open: 24.866
07.14.2023 14:27 CADCHF Sell Open: 0,65438
07-14-2023 02:44 PM Buy AUDCAD Open: 0,90324
07/18/2023 07:09 AM Buy EURUSD Open: 1.12699
07/18/2023 15:04 US500 Buy Open: 4.542,7
EUR/USD Short, WHEAT/USD and USD/JPY ShortEUR/USD Short
• If price impulses down below our rayline, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
WHEAT/USD Short
• If price corrects and a one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/JPY Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
SELL limit GBPJPY at 181.7 -181.8 | Target 180 -> 180.5Based on the M15 and H1 price structure, I have a Short Setup as follows:
Stoploss is described on the chart
Entry: 181.7 -181.8
Target 180 -> 180.5
This is a short wave setup, so the Stoploss is absolute. long-term with High timeframe (H4, D1), I will consider having a long possition if the price reaches to TP2
Weekend trade reportA successful week with, among other things, better-than-expected inflation figures from the US. This will show that inflation is heading in the right direction in the US. The market seems to be hoping for an urgent end to the interest rate hikes. This will be positive for the stock market. Inflation also seems to be coming under control in Europe. When we look ahead, it becomes difficult to estimate when it comes to interest rate hikes. The FED had announced in the previous meeting that it would raise interest rates at least 2 times this year. But whether that's already this month will be the big question. Last week we achieved a 15% return divided between the automatic and manual trades.
For the coming week we have the following news items to look out for:
Mon Jul
17 4:00 CNY GDP q/y
CNY Industrial Production y/y
14:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
Tue Jul 18
3:30 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
14:30 CAD CPI m/m
CAD Median CPI y/y
CAD Trimmed CPI y/y
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m
Wed Jul 19
0:45 NZD CPI q/q
8:00 GBP CPI y/y
Thu Jul 20
3:30 AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate
14:30 USD Unemployment Claims
AUD/JPY Long, EUR/USD Short, WHEAT/USD Short and USD/CAD LongAUD/JPY long
• If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price impulses down below our rayline, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
WHEAT/USD Short
• If price pushes up above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/CAD Long
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
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GbpAud likely to bounce back up Should be getting a lift up again...Watch it.
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
GBP/AUD Short, EUR/AUD Long and NZD/CAD ShortGBP/AUD Short
• If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/AUD Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/CAD Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
VIX vs S&P500The VIX index (officially known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index), developed by CBOE in 1993, is calculated based on the implied volatility of call and put options on the S&P500; index (SPX) over a 30-day period.
The theory behind the volatility index is that if investors believe the market is going to decline, they will hedge their portfolios by buying puts (the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date). Conversely, if traders are bullish, they may not want to hedge against potential downturns. This index shows a negative correlation with the S&P500.;
When there is high volatility, the VIX reaches high values and is often accompanied by declines in the S&P500;, indicating fear and pessimism in the market. These events often lead to significant movements in the stock markets. Conversely, when the VIX is at lows, there is confidence in the market and movements are smoother.
Relevant VIX levels:
VIX<20: Investor confidence. Often coincides with bullish periods for the S&P500.;
2030: Increased investor pessimism or fear. High volatility and the potential for significant downward corrections in the prices of the S&P500; and major stock indices.
The importance of using different TimeframesWhen visualizing the market and conducting technical analysis, it is crucial to interpret different timeframes.
Multi-timeframe analysis can enhance the probability of success in our trading by utilizing support and resistance levels from higher timeframes than our base timeframe.
It is also useful for identifying candlestick patterns in other timeframes and assessing their alignment with other signals observed in our analysis.
EN still on the uptrend,have more upside after this pullback..
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If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
SOYBN/USD Long and AUD/JPY LongSOYBN/USD Long
• If price completes its middle section and it then impulses down below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/JPY Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Trade Recap on AUD/NZD and Forecast on NZD/CADNZD/CAD Short
• If price pushes up above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
SOYBN/USD LongSOYBN/USD Long
• If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/USD Short, WHEAT/USD, GBP/AUD Short, AUD/NZD ShortAUD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
WHEAT/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart, or after a one hour rejection from it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/AUD Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/NZD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/CAD Short, NZD/JPY Short and CAD/CHF LongAUD/CAD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/JPY Short
• If price impulses down below our most recent corrective structure, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
CAD/CHF long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/USD Short and AUD/NZD ShortAUD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/NZD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Usdsgd watching for pullbacks to short
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Hello there!
If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁
Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!