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DeGRAM | EURUSD forecast for the week. Pullback from 1.142The instrument is still in a bearish mood, the sellers dominate the market. After consolidating under the strongest support at 1.162, the price falls to the lower border of the descending channel and just there the old support level from June 2020 - 1.142 passes, but the price stopped at the level, we see a slowdown in movement and a decrease in intraday volatility. On the distributive movement, the price at the end of the week approaches a strong zone, I do not think there is energy to continue the movement, I assume a false breakout and a price rollback to the nearest resistance at 1.1523 ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with Like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
3
Bitcoin, return of volatility ?Hello avid investors and traders out there, I will make a little study market of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is in weekly consolidation for the 9th consecutive week and last week's candle closed in doji for the third time in a row. Suffice to say that nothing has been going on for 1 month and a half because the price is still in the range without giving any indication on the continuation with a 50/50 chance of breaking up or down. The price is drawing a “pennant” triangle. The Pennant is a chartist figure of consolidation, very generally if it comes from an upward movement, it is statistically more likely to break on the upside. On the other hand I always distrust this figure which very often gives false signals either by breaking first by the top, by drawing what is called a fakeout (break out which fails), or by breaking by the bottom of first and then cross the upward triangle. Lately the traditional markets have not decided either. With each bullish momentum, there is a bearish momentum and the gaps to be filled move. The whole reacts significantly to each economic news whether "positive" or "negative". Until the traditional markets decide to resume the uptrend or start a real correction, there is little chance that the Bitcoin market will come out of this consolidation. Furthermore, the correlation between Bitcoin and risky assets like # Sp500 is extreme ... I recalculated the Expected Move option contracts on July 31 to see the volatility this month, according to traders and option investors. The EM calculation predicts a movement of 930 points which still leaves us in the range. I remind you that the ME is a statistical analysis which makes it possible to obtain a cone of probability. There is a 68.2% chance that the price will close in the cone until the end of the contracts. According to the ME, there is still very little volatility to predict. Traditional markets are likely to be quiet this summer like everyone else, so implicitly, there is a good chance that the Btc will be too. At the start of the evening yesterday, Bitcoin tried to cross the $ 8,900 to encourage a large number of sellers to shorten. The bearish movement did not last long because yesterday's day ended with a huge daily hammer. As a result of this movement many shorts were trapped in what is called a "Bear trap". Many shorts were trapped, resulting in many liquidations which allowed the rapid uptrend this morning. In Daily time units the price of Bitcoin has trough above the previous one, the first signal of a possible trend reversal. I remind you that last week Bitcoin went into a daily downtrend. To have a structured short-term plan, I usually frame the last peak and last trough in what I call a decision rectangle. A bullish crossing would lead me to seek purchases while a bearish crossing would certainly lead me to seek sales. If the last low of 8920 is maintained and the last peak of $ 9,300 is crossed upward, it is likely that the price will go to seek the $ 9,800, significant resistance. On the other hand, if the trough is crossed downward, there is a good chance of first looking for the weekly resistance of $ 8,600. If this weekly support is crossed, the rebound zones likely to serve as supports remain the same as last week. As long as the $ 6,000 level is maintained, Bitcoin still has chances to maintain its bullish bias and try to cross the $ 10,500 again. On the other hand, I doubt that the crossing of this resistance 10 500 will take place before the summer. Follow closely the news of traditional markets and the trend of the SP500 because in the short term it is he who will dictate the conduct of Bitcoin
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Captaintrading
Which is better: Arithmetic or Logarithmic scale charts?A market chart has two axes, the x-axis and they-axis. Where the x-axis registers the date, the y-axis registers the price. The y-axis has two methods for plotting it: an arithmetic scale or logarithmic scale. Whichever you chose will have implications for your trading. Arithmetic scale: On an arithmetic scaled chart, the spacing between price levels is equal. If price rises, like from 1000.20 to 1500.20 and 1780.20 to 1980.20 for gold, the grid spacing on the chart does not change. This is a gold chart illustrating arithmetic scaled chart. Logarithmic scale: The log chart is scaled based on percent moves. A hundred percent move or change in prices will have a larger space than a fifty percent move or change in prices because the spacing reflects differences in percentages. The same gold chart illustrating a logarithmic scale. The differences in both scales are not readily noticeable when charts are plotted on short periods of time because price fluctuations are relatively subdued. However, you begin to notice considerable differences with large price fluctuations. Because my trading is in the short term, I use the arithmetic scale. But position traders who deal on the longer term would consider using both arithmetic and logarithmic charts for their trading. That way they see both the price level moves as well as how that scales in percentage terms.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by Emekadavid
UPDATED USDJPY DOUBLE TOP SELL OPPORTUNITY100% PRICE ACTION As we can see, usdjpy has broken a very strong structure that it has struggled to break for weeks, bulls tried to step in to break above but were over powered. Price then tested the area once and bounced off, confirming that bears are in controll. we are now waiting for a second retest at this structure before entering. Price action is king, nothing more, keep it simple. DISCLAIMER: DO NOT TAKE MY ANALYSIS AS THE HOLY GRAIL. THESE ARE ONLY POSSIBILITIES OF THINGS THAT *COULD* HAPPEN AND NOT WHAT WILL HAPPEN!!!
Short
by YFXK
Price patterns in relation to intraday chartsIntraday data is based on time frames from the 4 hours and below. For these time frames, the short-term trend in the daily charts will be seen as the long-term trend in the intraday time frames. For those who are keen to trade intraday time frames, they need to know that patterns on these time frames or charts have three principal differences from their long-term counterparts. 1. Their effect is of much shorter duration. 2. Price trends in these time frames or charts are much more influenced by instant reaction to news events than is their longer-term counterparts. Therefore, decisions are not well thought-out when trading these extremely short-term charts but they develop as emotional, knee-jerk reactions. 3. Intraday price action can be easily manipulated. Therefore, their price data are much more erratic and generally less reliable than those that appear in longer-term time frames. These are the reasons why I have choose not to trade the intraday charts. When I first started out in trading, I tried out the intraday charts, especially the 5 minutes and 15 minutes time frames, but the emotional cost of reacting to every split-second movement of price data was high for me. That does not mean you cannot do it. You just need to understand the costs involved in trading intraday charts. The chart below, of EURUSD, is an illustrative 5 minutes chart of how volatility could suddenly change on the whim of emotions due to news. This is based on the 169th Non-Farm payroll (NFP) data which were released for the USA on 8th May, 2020.
Education
by Emekadavid
Time frames in trading price patternsBecause human psychology is more or less constant, that means the principles of technical analysis can be applied to any time frame be it 5 minutes to daily or monthly time frames. The only difference between time frames is that the battle between buyers and sellers is much larger and pronounced on the higher time frames than on the intraday time frames. Therefore, in generalizing, trend reversal signals are more significant on the longer time frames. When trading price patterns, any time frame can be used. What matters most is the character of the pattern. This is a pin bar that was profitable on the 15 min time frame of AUDNZD. I prefer to take trades on the longer time frames like the daily, 12 hours, 8 hours, 6 hours, and 4 hours time frames. I noticed that they contain less noise from the market and suits my temperament. You can choose yours. Notice how smooth this inside bar is on the 4 hours time frame of GBPJPY chart. Compare the same signal on the 5 min chart. You can see that on the 5 min chart you have to deal with a whole lot more bars and you have to spend lots of time on the screen when you can get the same pips spending lesser time on the 4 hours timeframe. That doesn't mean lesser time frames are inferior. Each person has to choose what suits his personality and is convenient.
Education
by Emekadavid
S&P500 - A little dangerous but having a big P/L in Long OrderIn my trading view, it's a bit dangerous if trading at this level. The Index is nearing Old High, but that is still on Lower Channel Line. I have 2 scenerios: 1. The Old High can be a strong Resistant Level and makes a correction. However, placing a Short is a danger in the short-term uptrend until seeing a clear reversal signal. 2. The Index is on the Lower Channel Line and can reach to the Upper Channel Line. In this case, I see a big P/L ratio if placing a Long and put a Stop-Loss in the Stop Area. Hope my idea can help your trading :)
SP:SPXLong
by TonyNguyen19