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NZD/USD Rebounds, But Caution Remains Ahead of US Economic DataThe NZD/USD pair rebounded today from a key demand area, but caution remains among traders as critical US economic data looms. The upcoming reports for USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are expected to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly affecting both EUR/USD and NZD/USD. These data points are crucial for assessing the strength of the US economy, and stronger-than-expected results could further support the US Dollar (USD), applying downward pressure on other currencies like the euro and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). China's Economic Data in Focus for NZD In addition to US developments, market participants are likely to remain cautious ahead of key economic data from China, New Zealand’s top trading partner, scheduled for release on Friday. The upcoming GDP and Retail Sales figures will be closely monitored, especially after the recent disappointment in China’s CPI and PPI numbers. Weak results from China could have negative implications for the NZD, given New Zealand’s heavy reliance on trade with China. The New Zealand Dollar has faced additional challenges, as China's recently announced fiscal stimulus measures have failed to lift market sentiment. Investors remain uncertain about the scale and impact of the stimulus package, further weighing on the outlook for the NZD. USD Strength and Federal Reserve Outlook Meanwhile, the US Dollar has found support from strong labor and inflation data, which has tempered market expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 92.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with little to no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction. This has kept the USD resilient, further limiting the upside potential for the NZD/USD pair. Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment From a technical standpoint, while the NZD/USD has seen a rebound, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders remain bearish on the pair, whereas smart money has started increasing their positions. In addition, our forecast suggests a potential shift toward a bullish seasonality for the NZD, though market conditions remain uncertain. Given the importance of today’s US economic data, we are adopting a patient approach, waiting for the news release before considering any entries. Stronger-than-expected US figures could dampen the outlook for the NZD, while weaker data may present opportunities for the NZD to regain strength. In conclusion, while there are signs of a potential bullish trend emerging for the NZD/USD, the combination of ongoing USD strength and upcoming key economic releases from both the US and China makes it necessary to remain cautious in the near term. Patience will be key as we await further developments in the market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Extends Decline Near 1.0850 Ahead of Key Economic DataThe EUR/USD pair extended its decline during the early Asian session on Thursday, hovering around the 1.0850 mark. The continued strength of the US Dollar (USD) has added selling pressure on the euro, as investors anticipate critical developments in both Europe and the United States. Notably, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce another interest rate cut during its monetary policy meeting today, which will play a pivotal role in shaping the near-term direction of the EUR/USD. ECB Meeting and Rate Cut Expectations The ECB meeting is a focal point for the market, with investors widely expecting another rate cut as the central bank attempts to stimulate the sluggish Eurozone economy. The ongoing monetary easing measures aim to address inflationary concerns and support economic growth in the region. A further reduction in interest rates would likely put additional pressure on the euro, especially against a strengthening dollar. Traders will be closely watching the tone of the ECB’s announcements, looking for any clues regarding future policy direction, which could set the stage for increased volatility in EUR/USD. US Economic Data in Focus In addition to the ECB's decision, the market’s attention will shift to the release of key economic data from the US later today. The USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims reports are set to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly EUR/USD. These reports are crucial in assessing the overall health of the US economy, and stronger-than-expected figures could further bolster the USD, applying additional downward pressure on the euro. Retail sales data will provide insight into consumer spending patterns, a key driver of US economic growth, while unemployment claims will shed light on labor market conditions. Should the data come in stronger than anticipated, it may reinforce expectations of a resilient US economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates. Conversely, weaker data could weigh on the dollar and offer a temporary reprieve for EUR/USD. Technical Outlook: Demand Zones in Focus From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is currently reacting to a previously identified demand area. While the pair has experienced selling pressure, the price could see a bullish reaction if the upcoming US data or the ECB meeting provide supportive conditions for the euro. In case of a positive outcome for the EUR after the news releases, we may consider opening a long position. However, the best entry point for a long trade remains within the lower demand zone, which offers stronger support and a more favorable risk-reward setup. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a notable shift in market positioning. Retail traders have been increasing their short positions on the euro, while smart money (large institutional investors) has moved long on the currency. This positioning dynamic suggests the possibility of a reversal, as smart money often takes contrarian positions against retail traders. With the data releases and central bank decisions looming, today could present a long setup, especially if the market interprets the news favorably for the euro. Conclusion The EUR/USD continues to trade under pressure, driven by the strength of the USD and expectations surrounding the ECB’s upcoming monetary policy decision. As the day unfolds, the release of critical US economic data will further shape the pair’s direction, potentially adding volatility and creating opportunities for traders. While the euro remains under pressure, technical and positioning factors indicate that a bullish setup could emerge, particularly if the euro finds support in the lower demand zones or if the news flow turns in its favor. Traders are advised to exercise caution and patience, keeping a close eye on the upcoming data releases and market reactions before entering any positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
US30 Will Fall! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for US30. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 43,093.6. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 42,352.4 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
PEPPERSTONE:US30Short
by SignalProvider
2
BITCOIN Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for BITCOIN. Time Frame: 45m Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 67,305. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 66,683 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SignalProvider
2
GBPJPY Will Go Lower! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for GBPJPY. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 194.510. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 193.839 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
USDCHF Is Bullish! Long! Take a look at our analysis for USDCHF. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 0.862. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 0.865 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
2
Kava Heavy Bearmarket- This analysis is presented as a tutorial. Some of you may already be familiar with MACD, but for those who aren’t, I’m happy to guide you through it. - Today, I’d like to share some insights on how to determine whether a token is still in a bear market or if it's on the verge of changing direction. - As always everything is noted in the graphic, so lets go : 1 . First, focus on the orange line, which is the most crucial one, sitting around $1.20. Did you notice that in 2020, Kava bounced off this line? Back then, it served as strong support. Now, take note that Kava was rejected twice in 2023 and 2024 at this exact same price level, this support just turned as a strong resistance. 2. Take a look at the MACD indicator Lines. During Kava's bull market in 2020, the MACD was consistently moving in the positive zone (bullmarket green area). After Kava's crash, observe how Kava have been repeatedly rejected at this exact middle line and continued to evolve in a negative zone (bearmarket red area). 3. Finally, take a closer look at the "hammer Emoji" and the bearish trendline. You will observe that everything is interconnected. At times, Kava gets "hammered" at the $1.20 level along the middle line, while at other times, it encounters resistance on its bearish trendline. None of this is coincidental. Conclusion : - Kava remains is still in a heavy bear market. As a relatively young token, it's difficult to analyze long-term historical data. However, with time, extending the timeframe to 1 or 3 months can help reduce noise and potentially detect a bullish reversal. - Kava's key level is $1.20. When it stays below this, it's better to step back, touch some grass, and wait for a breakout before considering any long positions. - If you’re looking to trade profitably, always go with the flow. Don’t try to long something that’s trending downward or short something that's rising. It’s simply a matter of logic. Happy Tr4Ding !
KRAKEN:KAVAUSD
by thecryer
EURUSD📌 Trading Instrument: EUR/USD 🔶 Bullish Breakout with Strong Potential 🔶 📝 Market Overview: After 16 days of consolidation, EUR/USD has finally broken out of the diagonal resistance, suggesting a bullish move ahead. I took a position just before the breakout, assessing the potential reward as extremely favorable compared to the risk. The trade has a remarkable Risk-Reward Ratio of 17.5:1, making it highly attractive even with a low initial risk. The breakout is supported by triple bullish divergences, signaling a strong potential for upward momentum. Moreover, the market is currently trading near the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level, a critical point often signaling reversals. Additionally, we have a solid support zone just below, which has held firm for 750 days. The absence of any significant breakdown from this level strengthens the bullish case. If this support holds, it will continue to fuel the upward momentum. However, any breakdown here could signal a notable trend reversal, so I'm closely monitoring the price action. Given these technical signals, I opted for a day trade with the potential to extend it through the week, depending on price movement and relevant news flow. 🎯 Trade Details: Stop Loss (SL): Today’s low Take Profit (TP): 1.09528 This trade leverages several technical signals: Bullish divergence across multiple timeframes. Holding near the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level. The strong support that has not broken for 750 days. The lack of a breakdown further solidifies the bullish outlook, and if the breakout gains momentum, this could be a highly profitable setup. 🚨 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly. Markets are highly volatile, and you should only invest money you are prepared to lose.
by RhinoAkaBear