Gold prices are testing resistance levels.Ames Stanley - senior marketplace strategist at the Forex market stated that traders took income after US financial reviews together with CPI and USD elevated sharply. The promoting circulate of traders won't be over yet. Gold costs are trying out resistance levels.
Economic occasions this week that effect gold costs encompass US retail income statistics and the European Central Bank`s economic coverage choice on Thursday.
The marketplace is likewise inquisitive about the Empire State production survey, weekly unemployment claims, housing begins offevolved and US constructing permits.
Besides, buyers and traders are listening to the Chinese marketplace. The u . s . a . plans to announce an financial stimulus package deal from authorities bonds, really well worth 283 billion USD.
🔥 XAUUSD buy 2632 - 2630 🔥
✔️TP1: 2642
✔️TP2: 2655
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2622
🔥 XAUUSD sel 2652 - 2654 🔥
✔️TP1: 2642
✔️TP2: 2632
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2662
Trading
Gold Price Analysis October 14Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices rose for a third straight day on Monday, rising to $2,667, or above a one-week high, in early European trading on Monday. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates amid a favorable inflation outlook were the main factor driving flows into the non-yielding yellow metal. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also provided additional support for safe-haven bullion.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (USD) remained elevated amid rising bets for a less aggressive easing policy from the U.S. central bank. This, coupled with a generally positive risk tone and optimism over China’s commitment to increase debt to revive its economy, could keep safe-haven bullion from gaining any further ground. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bullish traders and before positioning for any further upside amid a partial holiday in the US.
Technical Analysis
With the bank holiday, gold’s range bounds are unlikely to see a strong breakout. The 2665 high is seen as the top zone for today if the price fails to break above this zone by mid-European session. SELL entries can be established around the current price zone and the target level is expected to be around 264x-262x. The 2740 zone remains a strong and notable port zone for today.
The Impact of Overtrading on Trading PerformanceOvertrading and micromanaging trades are significant factors that contribute to losses for many traders. Often, traders fail to recognize when they are overtrading because they lose sight of the limits that indicate when to stop. Over time, this behavior can become a habitual pattern, ultimately resulting in financial losses. In this review, we will explore what overtrading is, examine the associated risks, and propose effective strategies to address the issue.
📍 Overtrading: How to Optimize Your Efforts
Pareto's Law states that 20% of effort often yields 80% of the results. When we apply this principle to everyday life, several observations come to light:
20% of people own 80% of the world's assets.
80% of sales come from 20% of customers.
20% of managers account for 80% of transactions.
The same principle holds true in trading: 80% of your results stem from just 20% of your efforts. Many traders overlook this insight, striving to "give their best" while in reality, 80% of their efforts may be largely ineffective.
Overtrading reflects both the actions and mindset of a trader who is overly focused on profit. This relentless pursuit can lead to stress, fatigue, and ultimately, significant losses. Overtrading often arises from improper prioritization of tasks and strategies. Recognizing and addressing this issue can help traders optimize their efforts and improve their performance.
📍 Optimize Performance
To effectively manage overtrading and enhance your trading success, consider implementing the following methods:
🔹 Set a Minimum Desired Income Profit: Establish achievable profit targets for different time frames—daily, weekly, and monthly. Ensure these targets are realistic and grounded in your trading experience. If you find that you haven't met your target within the first week, resist the urge to chase after immediate results; focus instead on the bigger picture. It's possible that you might still achieve your overall monthly goal.
🔹 Concentrate on Specific Tools and Actions: Narrow your focus to a limited set of trading tools and methods. Avoid spreading your attention too thin across various markets or strategies. By concentrating your efforts, you can deepen your expertise in specific areas and improve your decision-making, ultimately leading to better results.
🔹 Evaluate the Effectiveness of Your Trading System: Maintain a detailed trading journal where you log each trade. This journal will serve as a valuable resource for analyzing your performance over time. Use it to collect data based on various criteria, such as the most productive times for trading, the most profitable assets, and any recurring patterns in your successes and failures. By evaluating this information, you can identify areas for improvement and optimize your trading strategy for better outcomes.
📍 What to Avoid in Trading?
To maintain a disciplined and effective trading strategy, it's crucial to avoid certain behaviors that can lead to overtrading or poor decision-making. Here are key pitfalls to steer clear of:
◼️ Constant Observation of Charts: Resist the urge to monitor charts continuously. Instead, focus on selecting a specific asset and trading session, making trades primarily during periods of maximum volatility. This practice will help you avoid unnecessary stress and maintain clarity in your decision-making.
◼️ Pointless Forum Browsing: Spending excessive time on forums in hopes of discovering valuable advice or a superior trading method can be unproductive. While some insights can be helpful, relying too much on external opinions may divert you from your own strategies and increase dependence on other traders' perspectives.
◼️ Chaotic Timeframe Switching: Avoid jumping between different timeframes in search of trading signals. This erratic behavior often leads to confusion and can negatively impact your ability to make sound trading decisions. Stick to a consistent timeframe that aligns with your trading strategy and risk tolerance.
📍 Understanding Trade Micromanagement
Micromanagement in trading refers to the excessive control and analysis of trades that often results in diminished returns. Common behaviors associated with micromanagement include:
🔹 Monitoring Every Market Tick: Constantly watching minute-to-minute price changes can lead to anxiety and impulsive decisions.
🔹 Frequent Adjustment of Stop-Losses and Take-Profits: Regularly changing these levels can indicate a lack of confidence in your trading system and may lead to inefficient outcomes.
🔹 Switching to Short Timeframes: Lower timeframes often bring more market noise and may lead to overtrading rather than clearer signals.
🔹 Seeking Confirmation from Third-Party Resources: Looking for validation of your trades or decisions from forums, analysts, or other traders can undermine your conviction and disrupt your trading plan.
🔹 Unplanned Changes to Position Sizes : Modifying your trade size without a systematic approach can lead to increased risk and potential loss.
The underlying reason for micromanagement often stems from a lack of trust in the trading system and a fear of losses. Overcoming this psychological barrier requires time, practice, and rigorous backtesting to boost your confidence in your approach.
📍 Eliminating Overtrading: Optimizing Time and Efficiency
🔸 Reduce Screen Time: Aim to minimize the need to constantly be in front of your computer. Build confidence in your trading decisions by ensuring your trading system is effective, learning how to safeguard your positions, and actively working to minimize risks.
🔸 Avoid Impulsive Trades: Resist the urge to seize every trading opportunity that arises. Focus on identifying the strategies and conditions that yield the best results before opening a trade.
🔸 Learn from Mistakes: Regularly analyze your trading errors and strive to avoid repeating them. Dedicate time to reviewing your trade log to assess what went well and what could be improved.
🔸 Prioritize Your Trades: Be selective about which trades to pursue. Prioritization can help you focus on the most promising opportunities and enhance your overall performance.
📍 Conclusion
Remember, time is your most valuable resource. Those who truly enjoy their work and take the time to plan effectively will achieve greater success than individuals who spend all their time merely working.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Weekly GEX of SPX | Option Chain Analysis for Option TradersI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the SPX option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the SPX option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics.
🔶 Breakout and Bullish Outlook
Last Friday's price action saw the SPX break through the 5800 call gamma wall, generating strong bullish momentum . This breakout opens the door for further upward movement throughout the week, especially if buying pressure persists. Breaking through a call gamma wall often leads to a rapid price increase, as these levels act as resistance, but once broken, they support further upward moves.
However, caution is advised, as additional call gamma levels (around 5850 and 5875) could act as resistance, where the price may stall. These levels can reverse roles and, if the price falters, could act as significant resistance, potentially leading to a pullback toward the 5800 level.
🔴 Put Skew and IVx Changes
The put pricing skew on the Options Oscillator shows a declining trend, meaning that while put options are still more expensive than calls at equivalent strikes, this trend is softening when looking at the November expiration. This indicates a weakening of put options relative to calls, which could be another bullish signal as demand for puts may be declining.
The five-day IVx average declining , indicating a decrease in market volatility = VIX is melting down.
🟨 Backwardation and Diagonal/Calendar Strategy Opportunities
It's also worth noting the 10.5% backwardation based on the IV skew for the expirations between 10/18 and 10/21 (4/7DTE). This backwardation (downward sloping volatility curve) could benefit calendar and diagonal spread strategies, as options with different expirations have varying volatility conditions.
🔶 GEX Wall Levels: Where Is Support and Resistance?
🔹Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels continue to play a crucial role in the market’s movements:
🔹On the upside, the largest call gamma wall for the next 7 days is at 5850, while the 5875 level may also act as significant resistance. The 5875 is a more likely a realistic bullish target, supported by the Options Overlay’s blue OTM delta 16 probability curve.
🔹On the downside, the 5750 put support level currently offers strong support, with sellers forming a barrier here. The 5800 level is also interesting because it was the largest call gamma level last week, meaning there could be significant volatility as bulls and bears battle around this point.
(NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available by the end of October.)
🟨 How Delta 16 Curves Define My Rational Price Range in Options Trading
The blue OTM Delta 16 curves from the Options Overlay define the rational probability range for me based on a lognormal distribution. This is important because there’s a 68% chance the price will stay within this range by expiration. These values are also visible in the Overlay Expiry table.
This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade.
⅀ SPX Summary
The SPX options chain is showing a bullish direction with the breakout above 5800, but it will be key to watch the gamma levels where the market might stall this week. The rising IV and declining put skew trend could provide further signals that the bull market might continue, but the possibility of resistance or a pullback remains. For those considering diagonal strategies, the backwardation may offer interesting opportunities to capitalize on.
(NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
USD-JPY Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair made
A strong bullish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 149.500 which is now a
Support and as we are
Bullish biased a further
Move up is to be expected
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
CADCHF Will Explode! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for CADCHF below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 0.6220
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 0.6253
Recommended Stop Loss - 0.6204
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUDUSD My Opinion! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for AUDUSD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 0.6723
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 0.6787
Safe Stop Loss - 0.6684
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURCAD Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for EURCAD is below:
The market is trading on 1.5044 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.4975
Recommended Stop Loss - 1.5078
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPCHF What Next? SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for GBPCHF is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1270
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell), giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.1215
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on EURUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.0913 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.0926
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
DXY: Market Is Looking Up! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 103.388
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EURUSD: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 1.09001
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
SILVER: Local Correction Ahead! Buy!
Welcome to our daily SILVER prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 31.48850$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
GOLD: Strong Bearish Bias! Sell!
Welcome to our daily GOLD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 2,640.136$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
World gold prices tend to increaseWith RSI (14) additionally breaking the downtrend, it appears that evidently the relatively pessimistic photo of the beyond month is turning into brighter for buyers, giving investors a caution of a retest of document highs. transaction. MACD has now no longer but showed the signal, even though it is displaying symptoms and symptoms of bottoming.
We noticed a small pullback all through early Monday buying and selling in Asia, as fees retested the small uptrend from mid-September, which had furnished guide till broken. broke early closing week.
If the charge holds above this level, keep in mind shopping for above with a good forestall underneath to defend the goal push to a document excessive of $2,685.7. If it breaks, investors can search for a push to $2700.
Bannockburn Global the Forex market CEO Marc Chandler predicts gold fees will fall this week. Although gold jumped to 2,650 USD/ounce after PPI data, he stated that this valuable steel can also additionally retest the extent of 2,six hundred USD/ounce, or maybe 2,580 USD/ounce this week. Haven call for because of fears of tensions withinside the Middle East is helping gold, however better yields and a sturdy greenback should placed strain at the valuable steel, Chandler explained.
NAS100 Will Go Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for NAS100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 20,310.2.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 19,716.0 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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GOLD Will Go Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 2,659.646.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 2,674.265 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USDCAD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDCAD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.378.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.374 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!