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Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold Amid US Tariff UncertaintyGold rose above $2,920 per ounce, nearing record highs, as a weaker dollar and trade uncertainty drove safe-haven demand. Trump granted US automakers a one-month exemption from 25% Canada-Mexico tariffs and hinted at more changes. A US official suggested lifting the 10% tariff on Canadian energy if trade conditions are met. Meanwhile, China filed a revised WTO complaint in response to new US tariffs. Investors await the non-farm payrolls report for Fed policy signals. Key resistance stands at $2,923, with further levels at $2,955 and $3,000. Support is at $2,860, followed by $2,830 and $2,790.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by ChartMage
Pound Surges on BoE Policy OutlookThe British pound climbed to 1.289, its highest since November 12, increased by a weaker dollar, US economic concerns, and tariff effects. Expectations of prolonged high UK rates also supported the pound. BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden warned of persistent wage-driven inflation but noted rate cuts could accelerate if needed. The pound appears less exposed to US tariffs after Trump hinted at a possible UK trade deal. If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2920, the next resistance levels are 1.2980 and 1.3050. On the downside, support stands at 1.2860, with further levels at 1.2760 and 1.2660 if selling pressure increases.
by ChartMage
Yen Steady Near 149 as BOJ Hints at Possible Rate HikesThe yen held near 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from a weaker dollar amid a stronger euro and Trump’s tariffs. While Trump eased tariffs for some automakers, retaliatory measures pressured the dollar. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida signaled potential rate hikes if economic forecasts hold, noting financial conditions remain loose with minimal JGB reductions. Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 148.60, followed by 147.10 and 145.80.
by ChartMage
Avoid Market Maker Traps: Liquidity Sweeps & FVG ExplainedUnderstanding Market Maker's Perspective: Liquidity Sweeps and Fair Value Gaps (FVG) In this educational post, I'll dive into the smart money concepts (SMC) that help traders understand market behavior from a broker or market maker's perspective. This analysis will focus on liquidity sweeps, Fair Value Gaps (FVG), and how market makers use these strategies to manipulate price movements. What is a Liquidity Sweep? A liquidity sweep occurs when the market pushes through a known level of liquidity, such as stop losses or pending orders. This action often creates sharp wicks or sudden moves, typically engineered by smart money to gather liquidity for their positions. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Explained An FVG is a price gap between a consecutive bullish and bearish candle (or vice versa), leaving a void in the market. These gaps often act as magnets for price, as market makers seek to "fill" these gaps, using them as traps for retail traders. The Retail Trader's Perspective Many new traders view the FVG as a signal to enter the market, expecting price to move in their favor immediately. They often set stop losses below recent lows, providing market makers with a clear liquidity target. How Market Makers Exploit Liquidity Market makers often execute a classic trap strategy: Push the price up slightly to create a false sense of security for retail buyers. Execute a sharp move down to trigger stop losses and capture liquidity below key levels. Finally, reverse the price direction sharply to the upside, aligning with their true market intent. Practical Trading Strategy For new traders, understanding this concept can help avoid common traps: Avoid entering trades at the FVG without confirmation. Look for signs of a liquidity sweep, such as long wicks or strong rejections. Enter trades only after seeing a market structure shift (MSS) that confirms the true direction. Conclusion By thinking like a market maker, traders can align their strategies with smart money concepts, improving their chances of success. Always remain patient, seek confirmation, and avoid the traps set by market manipulation. This post aims to educate traders on avoiding common pitfalls and developing a more strategic approach to trading using smart money concepts.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDEducation
by SuvashishFx
What Is Market Capitulation, and How Can You Trade It?What Is Market Capitulation, and How Can You Trade It? Market capitulation occurs when investors collectively surrender to market fears, leading to a sharp decline in asset prices. This article delves into the mechanics of capitulation, how to identify it, and ways to trade effectively during these tumultuous times. Understanding Market Capitulation Market capitulation refers to a phenomenon where a large number of investors simultaneously give up on the market, leading to a rapid and substantial decline in asset prices. This mass surrender is driven primarily by panic and fear of further losses. Capitulation often marks the peak of a bearish trend and is typically characterised by a significant spike in trading volumes and sharp price declines. Stock capitulation occurs when investors, overwhelmed by fear and uncertainty, rush to sell their assets to avoid further losses. This behaviour is often triggered by prolonged market downturns or significant economic events. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, the S&P 500 experienced a nearly 5% drop in a single day, a classic example of market capitulation. This event led to a subsequent 17% rebound in the index over the following week, highlighting how capitulation can precede a market turnaround. Psychologically, capitulation represents the point where investor sentiment shifts from hope to despair. The collective mindset of "cutting losses" leads to a cascade of selling pressure, pushing prices to extreme lows. The intensity of selling can be so severe that it wipes out significant market value in a very short period. While capitulation can be daunting, it also presents opportunities. For contrarian investors and traders, these periods of panic selling can offer attractive entry points. As prices plummet, fundamentally strong assets may become undervalued, providing a chance to buy at lower prices. However, caution is essential as markets can remain volatile, and further declines are possible before a sustained recovery takes hold. Identifying Market Capitulation Identifying market capitulation involves recognising several key indicators that signify a dramatic surge in selling pressure and a sharp decline in asset prices. Here are the most notable indications to look for: Steep Price Decline Capitulation is typically associated with a rapid and substantial drop in asset prices. This sharp decline occurs as panic selling accelerates, pushing prices down swiftly​, often with large candles and minimal wicks. High Trading Volume During capitulation, there is often a significant spike in trading volume as investors rush to sell their holdings. This increase in volume is a key signal that a large number of market participants are exiting their positions simultaneously​. Extreme Bearish Sentiment Market sentiment during capitulation is overwhelmingly negative. News and investor sentiment indicators turn highly pessimistic, contributing to the panic and further driving down prices​. Technical Indicators Various technical analysis tools can help identify capitulation: - Volume Oscillator and On-Balance Volume (OBV): These indicators track changes in volume and can signal when selling pressure is peaking. A sharp decrease in these indicators often accompanies capitulation​. - Candlestick Patterns: Patterns like the hammer candlestick, which shows a recovery from intraday lows, and other patterns like the three white soldiers, can indicate that the market may have reached a bottom. The presence of such patterns, especially when accompanied by high volume, suggests a potential reversal​. - Bollinger Bands: These bands plot 2 standard deviations above and below a moving average. During capitulation, prices often touch or fall below the lower band, which indicates extreme selling conditions and potential oversold levels. This is especially true if the price falls beyond 3 standard deviations. - Average True Range (ATR): The ATR is an indicator that’s used to measure market volatility. A sudden, sharp increase in ATR during a downtrend can signal capitulation as it reflects the heightened panic and large price movements typical of such periods​. Exhaustion of Selling Capitulation often marks the point where selling pressure exhausts. This occurs when most investors who intend to sell have done so, leaving fewer sellers in the market. This depletion of sellers can indicate that a bottom is near and that a reversal may be imminent. The Impact of Market Capitulation on Markets Market capitulation has significant effects on financial markets, influencing both short-term and long-term trends. Short-Term Impact Immediately following capitulation, markets often experience extreme volatility and uncertainty. The intense selling pressure often drives asset prices sharply lower, causing values to drop significantly below their intrinsic worth. This phase is characterised by wild price swings as the market seeks a new equilibrium. The pervasive negative sentiment and widespread fear can further exacerbate the situation; across a broader downward move, there can be multiple points of capitulation with high volatility surrounding these additional selloffs. Long-Term Implications Over the long term, capitulation often marks the bottom of a market downturn. As the selling pressure diminishes and fewer investors remain to sell, the market begins to stabilise. This stabilisation allows new investors to enter the market, often leading to a gradual recovery in asset prices. However, it is essential to recognise that not every capitulation results in an immediate market reversal. Some markets may continue to decline or consolidate before a sustained recovery takes hold, with these new investors falling prey to the same fear-driven trading as another potential capitulation occurs. Psychological and Sentimental Effects Capitulation also has a lasting impact on investor sentiment. The severe downturn and associated losses can create a long-term negative perception of the affected assets, causing investors to remain cautious even after the market begins to recover. This psychological impact can lead to reduced trading volumes and prolonged periods of low investor confidence​. How to Trade Around a Market Capitulation Event Trading around a market capitulation event can be challenging due to the difficulty in accurately identifying capitulation in real-time. Capitulation often becomes clear only in hindsight, which complicates the process of trading or anticipating it effectively​. Avoiding the Falling Knife After identifying potential capitulation—characterised by a sharp price drop, likely on increased volume, and backed by extreme bearish sentiment—,it's typically unwise to try and buy during the initial plunge. The sharp decline often leads to further drops, even if they are less severe. Trying to "catch the falling knife" can potentially result in further losses as prices continue to fall​. Taking a Short Position During a Dead Cat Bounce One of traders’ approaches is to take a short position during a "dead cat bounce" or brief pullback before another downward leg. However, this strategy carries a less favourable risk/reward ratio because it involves selling low with the intention of selling lower. This might be effective but requires precise timing and strong risk management​. Waiting for Stability The most prudent strategy is often to wait until market volatility subsides and a bottom appears to form. Signs of a market bottom include the price overcoming a previous swing high or breaking through a prior level of resistance. This indicates a potential shift in market sentiment​, offering the trader an opportunity to buy low and sell high with a much more favourable risk-reward profile. Using Confluence in Analysis Combining different forms of analysis can provide greater confidence in identifying a market bottom. For example, if prices fall to a key support level or the decline seems disproportionately sharp compared to fundamentals, it might indicate an oversold condition. Momentum indicators and moving averages can also help confirm potential reversal points​. Risk Management Strong risk management practices are crucial. Limiting position sizes and always adhering to a stop loss can potentially prevent severe losses if the market experiences another leg down. This means that traders can potentially protect themselves against unexpected volatility and further declines​. Common Mistakes Traders Make During Market Capitulation Navigating market capitulation is challenging due to the extreme volatility and widespread panic that characterise these events. Here are some specific mistakes that traders frequently make during market capitulation: Panic Selling One of the most common mistakes is succumbing to panic and selling off assets hastily. During capitulation, the market is driven by extreme fear, and many traders sell to avoid further losses. This emotional response can lead to selling at the lowest point, locking in significant losses and missing out on potential rebounds once the market stabilises​. Holding onto Losing Positions Traders often make the mistake of holding onto a losing position, hoping for a reversal. When a trader holds a long position and witnesses market capitulation, the instinct might be to wait for the market to recover. However, this can lead to further losses as the asset's value continues to decline. Instead of cutting losses early, some traders let the losses accumulate, which can deplete their capital and limit future trading opportunities. This contradicts the previous point, and you may be confused about whether you sell or hold onto the trade. In any case, you will face a decision to either sell or hold on to their position if the capitulation is severe and protracted. It will always depend on the context and fundamental reason behind the capitulation, it’s worth noting that stocks generally recover over time. Trying to Time the Bottom Attempting to time the market bottom during capitulation is exceedingly difficult and can easily lead to additional losses. Capitulation typically involves sharp price declines and increased volatility, making it challenging to determine the exact bottom. Traders who try to catch the falling knife may find themselves buying into a market that continues to drop​. Overexposing Positions Another mistake is overexposing oneself to high-risk positions during periods of extreme market volatility. Instead of taking bolder positions, traders are best served to limit their exposure with smaller positions, stop losses, a diversified portfolio, and more judicious entries. It's essential to maintain a balanced approach and avoid putting too much capital into volatile trades​. The Bottom Line Understanding and navigating market capitulation can be challenging but offers potential opportunities for informed traders. By recognising key indicators and avoiding common mistakes, traders can better manage their strategies during these volatile periods. For a robust trading experience, consider opening an account with FXOpen to leverage these insights and trade with a broker you can trust. FAQs What Is Capitulation in the Stock Market? The capitulation meaning in the stock market refers to the moment when investors and traders, overwhelmed by fear and panic due to a prolonged decline in stock prices, decide to sell their holdings at any price to stop further losses. This mass selling leads to a sharp and rapid drop in stock prices. The term is derived from the military concept of surrender, indicating that investors are giving up on their positions. Is Capitulation Bullish or Bearish? Capitulation is both bullish and bearish. It is bearish during the actual event, as it involves widespread panic selling and a significant drop in stock prices. However, it can be bullish afterward, as it often marks the end of a severe downtrend and the beginning of a recovery or rally. This is because the selling pressure is exhausted, and buyers start to step in, finding attractive entry points. How Does Capitulation Work? Capitulation works through a cycle of fear and panic. Initially, as prices decline, some investors start selling to cut their losses. This selling pressure causes prices to drop further, leading more investors to panic and sell their holdings. This cycle continues until the majority of investors have sold their positions, leading to a sharp decline in prices. Eventually, the market stabilises as the selling pressure diminishes, often followed by a recovery. What Are Signs of Capitulation? Signs of capitulation include a sharp decline in prices, high trading volumes, extreme bearish sentiment, and market exhaustion, where selling pressure diminishes, stabilising the market. What Is Capitulation in Crypto*? Capitulation in the cryptocurrency market* follows a similar pattern to that in the stock market. It occurs when crypto* investors, driven by fear and panic due to a prolonged decline in prices, sell their holdings en masse, leading to a sharp drop in prices. This can be triggered by negative news, regulatory actions, or broader market downturns. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:GOOGLEducation
by FXOpen
1
Gold Price Analysis March 5⭐️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices (XAU/USD) have stalled after two days of gains due to rising US bond yields, putting pressure on non-yielding gold. However, gold may be supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. Specifically, the US imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, while China also increased tariffs to 20%, raising concerns about trade retaliation. At the same time, the US's suspension of military aid to Ukraine also prompted investors to seek gold. In addition, the situation became more tense when President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy disagreed on peace negotiations. ⭐️Technical Analysis It is clear that gold is rising and heading towards the resistance level of 2929. This is considered a key area for gold. If broken, gold will continue to increase in price to ATH 295x. If Gold breaks the trend and falls, 2903 will no longer be meaningful and it will be at the 2896 area that Gold will really have a price reaction.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
1
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought HPE before the previous earnings: Noe analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-3-21, for a premium of approximately $0.52. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NYSE:HPELong
by TopgOptions
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 6, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇪🇺💶 ECB Interest Rate Decision 💶: The European Central Bank is expected to announce a 25 basis point reduction in its deposit rate, bringing it to 2.5%. This move aims to stimulate economic growth amid ongoing uncertainties, including trade tensions and fiscal policy shifts.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Thursday, March 6: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉:This weekly report indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into the labor market's health. Forecast: 220K Previous: 215K​ 📦 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 📦:This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, offering insight into manufacturing demand. Forecast: -0.5%​ Previous: +1.2%​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
zkSync Hits Bottom: Trading Basics & Bull-Market TheoryFour weeks sideways after a major flush? This type of action gives it all away. It gives away the fact that the market is no longer bearish because the action changed from straight down to null, sideways. It is likely to change from sideways to up. Look back to August 2024, it is the same all over again. Watch. zkSynch (ZKUSDT) went down, stopped falling to move sideways for several weeks. This was followed by a strong bullish wave. We have the drop in 2025 and the sideways action, what follows? Bitcoin is going up, the Altcoins will do the same. The same volume signal is present here as well, the one we saw on the LayerZero chart. While bearish and neutral action is happening, trading volume is really low. This means that no real participants are present, the chart is being drawn by trading bots. Just watch. When prices start to go up, volume will go up as well. This is the signal that people are buying, and only now the price is great. Buy at support. Buy at the bottom. Buy when red. Buy when prices are low. Accumulation at support and then hold. When the market is green, hype, high and up; that's the time to consider taking profits because the bull-market ends at the top. A bull-market starts at the bottom, that's when the market is bullish, when prices hit bottom and the oscillators start to read oversold. Oversold oscillators, bottom prices and positive news show up. These are the early signals pointing to a market reversal and change of trend. This what we call bullish and we are bullish now. Here we just need the initial bullish breakout for confirmation and the bulls are in. When the oscillators hit overbought, everything is green and the market is hitting new All-Time Highs but negative news start to show up, this is a sign of overheating and surely what follows is a long-term drop. That's why I say the best time to buy is when prices are low. Sorry if this is too basic, but we start from scratch and get into the complexity as the bull-market develops. First we buy and hold. Later we will consider different trading strategies, leveraged trading and so on. But first, spot trading, zero risk and a high potential for rewards. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
2
CNBCAnyone remember 2 years ago when yield curve inversions were happening and they moved the goal post for recession? Naw, nothing to see here! Jim Cramer just like 6 months ago said that anyone that uses the yield curve as a tool is spreading FOMO and FUD, blah, blah, blah. I still cannot believe after the Wells Fargo garbage anyone would ever listen to Cramer but they still do. It just shows who in the market is delusional. Just focus on earnings he said. Now that Trump is in office the main stream media has done a complete 180 degrees. On CNBC yesterday: The federal Reserve's favorite recession indicator is now flashing warning signs. Nobody in mainstream media was saying anything about recession's on the Biden administration clock but now that Trump is in office the yield curve and inversions matter? This just did not happen overnight, not even remotely. You can look up numerous charts that show spending by President and Biden was the absolute worst, ever. If you listen to facts, you cannot fail as a trader but if you play follow the leader, you absolutely will get your rear end handed to you. Follow charts, not feelings, not the news, especially CNBC. Here is a news flash, recession: You wish, The Great Depression 2.0 with WW3 is next. You cannot print into oblivion and think nobody is going to pay for this. The US dollar isn't even worth 3 cents. People think inflation is the cost of products going up. It is not, inflation is the dollar worth less and that is why the dollar does not get stretched as far. Companies just take advantage of inflation to jack prices and line their pockets. It really is that simple. Back during the Great Depression, JP Morgan bailed the market out. Fun Facts: -J.P. Morgan was a banker who helped the U.S. government during the Panic of 1893 and the Panic of 1907. -During the Panic of 1893, Morgan helped the U.S. government by purchasing $62 million in gold to replenish the government's gold reserves. -During the Panic of 1907, Morgan and his banker friends purchased $30 million in city bonds to prevent a financial collapse. -Morgan also helped to finance the merger of Edison General Electric and Thomson-Houston Electric Company to form General Electric in 1891. A total of less than $100 million. You are not bailing out a market that is over $30 Trillion in debt, so what happens? You want to know the truth? We don't do anything, default on the debt, the dollar crashes (which it already has) and we move to a new system. Which is CBDC, or Central Bank Digital Currency. Why do you think Trump is so big on crypto? Because he knows what is next, he is a business man. No matter what you think about presidents as people, they are all in on this and you're not invited. This is why I swing trade because until this hits bottom and I am talking S&P 500 to 1100 type of bottom, there's nothing long that looks great at all. We have to crash first. So many falsehoods out there being propagated by main stream media and wanna be traders, instead of just saying the truth. In the markets, it doesn't matter which side you're on, money doesn't care who you vote for. Stick to the charts and you cannot lose in short term trades. It isn't about the quantity of trades and your 40 accounts. It's about the quality, in and out. We have to stop lying in the financial world because of political sides. Politics does not belong on Wall Street. In the late 90's, I never even heard anyone talk about Democrats or Republicans on the trading floor. My point of all this? Do you see how following narratives can get you into trouble? 401ks, pensions, retirements are going to implode when the debt market finally gives way. Get ready folks!!
TVC:US10Y
by JennyMurphy