How to Read a Candlestick | Beginners Guide 🕯
Hey traders,
If you follow me for quite a while you probably noticed that I apply a candlestick chart for the market analysis.
In this post, we will discuss how to read an individual candlestick and we will outline its important elements.
🔰The candlestick reflects the price movement for a selected period of time.
An hourly candle will show you a price action within an hour and a daily candle within a day.
🔰The candlestick pattern has a very specific shape:
it is composed of a body and a wick.
The wick of the candle indicates the range of the price action within the candle. Its upper wick will show you the highest price during that time period and its lower wick will show the lowest price, while the body of the candle indicates its opening and closing price.
🔰From the color of the body of the candle, we identify its direction.
Green signifies a bullish candle while red signifies a bearish one.
🔰The lower boundary of a body of a bullish candle will show its opening price and its upper boundary its closing price.
🔰The upper boundary of a body of a bearish candle indicates its opening price and its lower boundary its closing price level.
With so many elements within a single candlestick, one can derive a lot of valuable information.
Some candlesticks have a very specific form and are called candlestick patterns. They are applied for predicted the future market behavior.
A proper reading of a candlestick chart may unveil a lot of insights about the market so it is very important for you to learn to work with that.
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Tradingbasics
Classic Trend Reversal Patterns📚
✅It is difficult to overestimate the importance of the classic continuation and reversal patterns. For a real trader trading on the Forex market, it is huge, because these patterns make it possible to predict the behaviour of the price.
⚠️If one of the trend continuation patterns appears in front of us on the chart, it means that the usual correction (rollback) is taking place. After its completion, it becomes possible to profitably enter the market at the existing rate.
📈📉Head & Shoulders
🟢The Head and shoulders pattern is a reversal pattern that is usually formed during a bullish trend and creates a top — the first shoulder. After the correction, the price creates a higher top — the head. After the next correction, the price creates a third top, which is below the head — the second shoulder. So, we have two shoulders and a head in the middle.
🟢Of course, the head and shoulders reversal pattern has its inverse equivalent, which turns bearish trends into bullish ones. This pattern is called the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern.
🟢Confirmation of the pattern occurs when the price breaks the line that runs through two bases on either side of the head. This line is called the neckline. When the price overcomes the neck line, we get a reversal signal.
📊Double Top and Double Bottom
🟢A double top consists of two peaks on the chart. These peaks are either at the same resistance level, or the second peak is slightly lower. A sample of a double top usually looks like the letter "M".
🟢A double top has its opposite, which is called a double bottom. This model consists of two bases, which are either located at the same support level, or the second base is slightly higher. The double bottom pattern usually looks like the letter "W".
🟢Confirmation of the Double top pattern comes at the moment when the price breaks through the minimum between the two tops. This level is marked by a line on the chart and is called a signal line.
🟢The stop loss order should be placed directly above the second top. The minimum profit target is equal to the distance between the neck and the center line that connects the two tops.
❗️The double bottom looks and works exactly the same.
💎Diamond
🟢It is quite difficult to see this pattern on a real chart – it looks like a standard flat, but with unstable volatility. A diamond means, at least, medium-term market uncertainty, when the probability of movement in any direction is almost the same. But the longer it takes to form, the stronger the breakdown and the subsequent trend will be.
☕️Cup with Handle
🟢The cup with handle pattern is considered a bullish continuation pattern, so it is necessary to determine the previous uptrend. This can be done by analyzing price dynamics or technical indicators, such as moving averages.
The cup should be more U-shaped, not V-shaped, and the upper points on both sides of the cup should be approximately at the same level.
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The Iceberg Illusion of Success in Trading 🏔️
When people see a consistently profitable trader they do not consider all the costs a successful trader has paid overtime (below the surface) to get to what they see (above the surface).
So many things happen below the surface that nobody can see.
Here are some of the below the surface things that compose the top of the iceberg that everyone sees:
🔰Dedication – you need to be loyal to your dream of becoming a pro trader. Your belief must be that strong so no one could dissuade you. You need an iron discipline to make it happen.
🔰Hard work – you should work day after day not letting yourself give up. Charts must be in front of you as much as it is possible. Trading terminal must become your best friend.
🔰Good habits – follow your trading plan, do not break your rules of risk management, avoid FOMO, etc. This is the set of habits that will be your satellite in your trading journey. Do them consistently and they will become a natural part of your life.
🔰Disappointment – it does not matter how hard you try. Occasionally things will fall apart anyway: you will face losing streaks and a strategy will refuse to work. It will hurt. "Stand up straight with your shoulders back". Treat disappointments as temporary things.
🔰Sacrifice – to become a consistently profitable trader you should pay the price. Losses, time, nerves. Your prosperous future will have a tremendous cost.
🔰Failure – while you are learning how to trade you will inevitably blow a couple of trading accounts, you will spend time on strategies and techniques that do not work. Occasionally you will fall. If so, stand up and keep going.
🔰Persistence – keep doing what you are doing no matter what. Do not let others persuade you that you can't make it. Even if things get tough, stay strong.
🔰Focus – always know what is your end goal, know where are you going, and what is your end destination.
🔰Flexibility – be prepared for sudden changes in the environment. Keep your focus on the goals that you set learning to adjust to the changing circumstances.
🔰Consistency – you will not get the desired results immediately. Be ready to do the same again and again, hundred times until the goal is achieved.
Overnight success does not exist. If you want to become a consistently profitable trade be prepared for years of struggling and pain. And do not be afraid, it is worth it.
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Know When to Stop Trading⛔️
✅Today we will talk about one of the most important things in trading, about what most traders around the world cannot do, even though they are well aware of the need for these actions. It will be about suspending and completely stopping their trading activities.
✅What to do if the trading system has failed, the market has changed, emotions fail or something has gone wrong. It is in this situation that the rules of action in extreme trading situations come to our aid.
1️⃣Three shots and you're dead — the rule of stopping trading within a day
🟢The main essence of this rule is contained in the title. And its essence is to stop trading if 3 consecutive losing trades were made during the trading session. No more deals are opened on this trading day. The trader has received a clear signal that something has gone wrong and the problem is either with the strategy or with the market or with the trader.
🟢Especially psychologically strong people who are sure that they will not be drawn to recoup, can continue to monitor the market, but it would be better to just close the trading platform and do something else, and after the trading session to analyze and find out what the problem was.
2️⃣Three volleys and you're dead — the rule of stopping trading for 2 days
🟢This rule is quite simple in formulation and just as complex in execution, in fact, as all the rules of risk management and capital management.
🟢If the three-shot rule has worked for three days in a row, then trading stops for 2 days. The principle is the same as in the previous rule, but in this case, the trader receives a signal that the problem is more serious than originally thought and it will not be possible to simply wait it out, serious measures need to be taken to analyze and correct the situation.
3️⃣The 30% trading capital rule
🟢If 30% of the trading capital was lost during trading, then trading stops completely until the moment when this loss is made up in any other way (of course legal). This rule will help to save your main working tool — trading capital and will allow you to relieve psychological stress because the trader will come out of a stressful state and realize that he has other ways of earning income, i.e. trading is not conducted with the last money.
❗️Observing these 3 simplest rules of stopping trading, you can be sure that you will never lose your deposit and even in the worst case scenario you will always be able to stop and beat the excitement that pushes many traders to return to the market again and again until zero remains on the account.However, all of the above is true only under one small condition — all three rules are strictly observed
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PRICE ACTION TRADING | INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDERS PATTERN 🔰
Hey traders,
Inverted head and shoulders pattern is a classic reversal pattern.
It signifies the weakness of buyers in a bearish trend and a bullish accumulation.
⭐️The pattern has a very peculiar price action structure:
Trading in a bearish trend the price sets a lower low and retraces setting a lower high (left shoulder),
then the market goes lower setting a new low but instead of setting a new lower high, the price returns back to the level of a previous lower high setting an equal high (head).
After that bears start pushing again but with an amplifying bullish pressure, the market sets a higher low and returns back to equal highs setting a new one (right shoulder).
🔔Equal highs form a horizontal structure called a neckline.
Once the pattern is formed it is still not a trend reversal predictor though.
The trigger that is applied to confirm a trend reversal is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern.
📈Then a long position can be opened.
For conservative trading, a retest entry is suggested.
Safest stop is lying at least below the right shoulder.
However, in case the heights of the right shoulder and head are almost equal it is highly recommendable to set a stop loss below the head level.
🎯For targets look for the closest strong structure resistances.
What pattern do you want to learn in the next post?
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5 Important Candle Patterns You Need to Know📚
🟢Candlestick patterns and models in technical analysis can be used to predict future price movement.
⚠️There are many different candle patterns. Not all of them work equally well and often their form is quite subjective. Therefore, it is not necessary to make trading decisions based on patterns alone. It would be best to combine them with support and resistance levels, moving averages or other technical analysis indicators that strengthen signals to enter the market.
❗️Remembering a lot of different candle patterns is not as useful as understanding what is really behind their appearance, and who is currently controlling the situation in the market — bulls or bears.
Let's look at the most popular and easiest to define patterns.
✅Bearish Engulfing
It is formed during the upward momentum of the price at the local highs of the chart. The first small green candle of the pattern indicates that the bulls are already tired and they need a break. The large red candle that appeared next, swallowing the green one with its body, indicates that the bears took advantage of the situation and actively moved into a counteroffensive.
Further movement of quotations downwards leads to the beginning of a downward correction. Confirmation of the beginning of the downward movement will be the price falling below the minimum of the second, large bearish candle pattern.
✅Bullish Engulfing
It is formed during the downward movement at the local minima of the price chart. The first small red candle of the pattern shows that the bears' strength is already running out, after which a large green candle appears, completely absorbing the body of the first one. This suggests that the bulls felt the weakness of the bears and actively went on the offensive.
Further upward movement of the price leads to the beginning of an upward correction. Confirmation of its beginning is the growth of quotations above the maximum of the second, large bullish candle pattern.
✅Doji
In fact, doji can be one of the most important patterns in combination with other technical analysis tools.
It shows indecision in the market and at its breakdown - it is possible to draw conclusions about the further probable price movement.
✅Shooting Star
A clear sign of the dominance of sellers.
After the opening of the candle, prices moved towards growth, but at the closing of the candle, sellers began to dominate buyers and the price closes near or below the opening price.
The tail of this candle shows that it was in it that sellers began to "Crush" buyers.
With such a pattern, there is a possibility of further decline.
✅Pin bar
A clear sign of the dominance of buyers.
After the opening of the candle, prices moved downward, but at the close of the candle, buyers began to dominate sellers and the price closes near or above the opening price.
The tail of this candle shows that it was in it that buyers began to "crush" sellers.
With such a pattern, there is a possibility of further growth.
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Why Do You Need a Trading Plan?📝
If you want to become a consistently profitable trader you have two choices:
1️⃣strictly follow your trading plan
or
2️⃣fail.
Trading plan is essential for achieving your financial goals.
It is a set of actions to follow for making trading decisions
guiding you on how to react to certain events.
It reflects your personality and characteristics.
Moreover, its entire structure and content are primarily based on them.
Your way to success will be full of obstacles.
A lot of things will come in your way:
losses, drawdowns, and losing streaks;
mistakes, scams, and emotional decisions.
Only your trading plan will show you a correct path, it ensures you will stay on track on your journey to your desired destination.
When you make a wrong turn, it knows to make adjustments, and it points you back in the right direction.
It is your guard from making any hurried decisions you could later regret.
Trading without a trading plan wouldn’t be a smart idea. You wouldn’t know how to get to your destination and it’s highly likely that you get lost.
Most importantly, if you suck at trading (and you certainly will in the beginning), you will know it is down to one of only two reasons: either there’s a problem in your trading plan or you are not sticking to your trading plan.
Stick to your plan traders. "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail".
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What are Moving Averages & how to make money on them?📚
🟢The main rule of using Moving Average is to track the general direction of the moving average: it indicates the dominant trend in the market. It is worth making deals only in the direction of this movement. Such a simple rule makes the moving average method a convenient tool for short-term forecasting.
🟢A universal tool in almost all markets is a simple moving average (SMA) with a 200-day averaging period. A longer-term moving average will allow you to see the global rise or fall of the asset, avoid short-term fluctuations or minor consolidation of the exchange rate. As a rule, short moving averages allow you to react more actively to price movements and are designed to search for short-term trends. When analyzing the price chart on a daily or even shorter interval, many traders use "fast" EMAS with different averaging periods (5, 7, 13, 21, 50).
✅To date, there are many recommendations for the period of the moving average (3, 5, 7, 13, 21, ...), as well as methods of its calculation (SMA, WMA, EMA). The general postulates are as follows:
✅The "faster" the MA (EMA) and the shorter the calculation period (3, 5, 13, ...), the more likely it is to receive false or ambiguous signals;
✅The "slower" the MA (SMA) and the longer the calculation period (50, 100, ...), the more likely the moving average is to lag behind the real state of affairs in the market.
❗️The moving average method is still a universal way to determine the trend in the asset market. Ease of use and unambiguous interpretation of the result allow the investor to determine the prevailing trend with a high degree of probability. This minimizes the risk of making unprofitable deals. The use of the method as an independent tool when deciding on a transaction is controversial, since all possible successful combinations of the intersection of moving averages or the average and the asset price are subject to cyclicity and sometimes give false or ambiguous signals.
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Learn Trend Analysis | Impulse & Retracement Legs 📈
Hey traders,
As you asked me, in this educational post we will discuss some price action basics.
No matter whether you are a fundamental trader or a technical trader you should be able to execute trend analysis.
You should always know where the market is going; if it is bullish or bearish.
One of the simplest ways to execute trend analysis is to perceive a price chart as a sequence of impulses and retracements.
➖The impulse leg is a trend-following move.
It is characterized by heightened movement dynamics and speed.
Usually the completion point of the impulse:
sets a new lower low in a bearish trend,
sets a new higher high in a bullish trend.
➖A retracement leg is a correctional movement within the trend.
Its’ initial point is the completion point of the impulse or retracement leg and
its completion point might be an initial point of a new retracement leg or of a new impulse leg.
Usually, a retracement leg is characterized by a slow zig-zag movement.
Usually the completion point of the impulse leg:
sets a lower high in a bearish trend,
sets a higher low in a bullish trend.
Perceiving the price chart as the set of impulses, one can easily and objectively identify a global, mid-term and short-term market trend, price action trend-following, reversal and correctional patterns.
What do you want to learn in the next educational articles?
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Japanese Candlesticks: learning to read and understand🕯
✅Japanese candlesticks are the most popular way to read the price movement on charts. They are visual, easy to learn and the main thing is that they work.
✅The first mention of candle patterns can be found in the Japanese rice trader Homma Munehisa in the 1700s. Almost 300 years later, candles were rediscovered by Steve Neeson in his book titled "Japanese Candles. Graphical analysis of financial markets".
✅Candlestick charts provide much more information compared to linear charts and are currently the preferred market analysis tool for traders and investors.
What are Japanese candles?
🟢Each of the candles tells us four facts about itself: the opening price, the maximum price movement, the closing price, and the minimum price movement.
⏺A bullish candle is formed when the price rises. In financial markets, the term bullish means a long position or a buy.
⏺A bearish candle is formed when the price falls. In financial markets, the term bearish refers to a short position or sale.
❗️The body of the candle is the space between the opening and closing of the candle. If the body is green, it means that the closing price of the candle is higher than the opening price. If the color is red, it means the closing price is lower than the opening price of the candle.
❗️Candle wicks represent the highest or lowest points that the candle has reached.
🟢Each candle represents a selected time frame or time interval during which it opens and closes. For example, on a 4-hour chart, candlesticks open and close every 4 hours.
🟢If we line up several candlesticks, we can compare them with a linear chart. Candle wicks also show price fluctuations. Thus, we immediately get the maximum information that we need for effective market analysis.
⚠️A trader who knows how to analyze and interpret candlestick patterns or patterns already understands the actions of financial market participants a little better.
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The Only Proven Way To Success in Trading 🥇
Hey traders,
Like any discipline, consistently profitable trading requires many years of practice.
In this post, we will discuss the only proven way to become successful in trading.
🔰First, let's start with the axiom: there are no inborn traders, trading is a skill, a skill that can be learned. Though talent may help you in some manner it does not guarantee your success.
One more axiom that is logically derived from the first one is the fact that trading is a complex skill.
The one that can be split into dozens of subskills.
Making that statement we may assume that our success in trading directly depends on mastering each subskill, each domain that it consists of.
But how do we master these skills?🤔
The only way to do that is to practice. Practice means doing something regularly in order to be able to do it better.
With your first attempts, you are doomed to fail. Inevitable you will suffer and you will feel miserable because of your incompetence.
Trying and doing the same thing again and again, at some moment you will feel the progress and growth. Your perseverance will bear fruit.
Knock, and it shall be opened to you.
And as a consequence, with some attempt, you will feel that finally the skill is mastered, that one more stage in your journey is passed.
Polishing the entire set of subskills and learning to apply that as a single unit will make you a consistently profitable trader.
Just stipulate the domains properly, name them and be ready to work hard.
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ELON MUSK QUOTES. For powerful thinking👨🎓
1️⃣"When it is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor."
2️⃣"No, I don't ever give up. I'd have to be dead or completely incapacitated."
3️⃣"Persistance is very important. You should not give up unless you're forced to give up."
4️⃣"I think it is possible for ordinary people to choose to be extraordinary."
5️⃣"Don't confuse schooling with education, I didn't go to Harvard, but people who work for me did."
6️⃣"Constantly think about how you could be doing better and keep questioning yourself."
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5 Possible Outcomes Of Your Trades | Trading Basics 👶
Hey traders,
Depending on your actions, you can get 5 completely different results
taking just one single trade.
1️⃣The first outcome is a small win.
By a small win, I mean a winning trade producing up to 2.5% account growth.
2️⃣The opposite situation leads to a small loss.
To me, a small loss is a losing trade producing up to -1% account decline.
3️⃣Occasionally once the price starts moving in the predicted direction, one can protect his trading position moving his stop to entry and making a position risk-free.
Being stopped out such a trade produces 0% profit. The level where the position is closed is called a breakeven point.
4️⃣If one perfectly predicts a future direction of the market and opens a trading position accordingly, occasionally, a huge profit can be made.
A winning trade producing more than 2.5% net account growth is called a big win.
5️⃣Being wrong in the predictions, however, one can adjust and trail a stop loss not letting himself be stopped out. Such behavior may lead to a substantial loss or even a margin call.
A losing trade that produces more than -1% net loss is called a big loss.
❗️Learning how to trade, I strongly recommend you eliminate the 5th outcome. Managing not to lose more than 1% of your account will substantially improve your trading.
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WHAT IS AN ETF? (Exchange-Traded Fund)📚
✅An ETF is an exchange-traded investment fund. The fund's management company draws up a strategy and acquires assets in its portfolio, and then issues shares - small shares of this portfolio. When selling an ETF, the investor pays tax in the same way as if it were ordinary shares.
✅If 40 years ago only 6% of American families invested money in investment funds, now they are about 46%. At the end of the third quarter of 2020, $29.5 trillion was invested in open-ended investment funds in the United States — this is almost half of all assets managed by funds around the world.
⚠️What instruments are included in the ETF
🟢The fund's portfolio may consist of any instruments traded on the stock exchange. For example, stocks, bonds, currency, precious metals. Their ratio depends on the fund's strategy. Once in a certain period, the management company reviews the portfolio and rebalances, that is, sells some assets and buys others.
🟢All actions are subject to strict rules, from which managers cannot deviate. All information about the composition of the ETF and the frequency of portfolio rebalancing is available in the fund's documentation.
🟢ETFs can consist of securities, precious metals, derivatives - there are practically no restrictions. Therefore, today there are thousands of funds with very different structures. For example, there is the Global X Millennials ETF— which is a fund for shares of brands beloved by millennials. Or Direxion Work From Home ETF - it invests in services that benefit from the widespread transition to remote work.
❗️What are ETFs
🔴When a fund copies a stock index, it applies replication, that is, it exactly repeats the composition of the index. There are two types of replication — physical and synthetic. If an ETF uses physical replication, it buys the index assets themselves - stocks, bonds, and everything else.
🔴If a fund uses synthetic replication, it does not buy the index assets themselves. Instead, the fund uses an index derivative — an agreement between the parties that the transaction will be executed. A change in the value of the index entails a change in the value of the derivative. On the one hand, this is beneficial for the investor, but on the other hand, a complete repetition of the index may be inaccurate. In addition, there is a risk that the derivative provider will not fulfill its obligations.
🔴In index ETFs, the investor should pay attention to the error of following or tracking error. Let's say the IMOEX index has gained 12% over the year, and the ETF for this index has only 11%. The management costs in this fund are 0.5%, which means that the remaining 0.5% is a follow-up error. This indicator should not be too large, because, in the end, it affects the profitability of the fund. If the fund deviates greatly from the index, the managers do not do their job well.
‼️How the price of an ETF is formed
🔴Shares in ETFs are called shares, they have a market and settlement price - iNAV.
🔴The estimated price is the value of all assets included in one share of the ETF. It can be viewed on the fund's website and the stock exchange.
🔴The market price depends on the supply and demand in the market and differs from the estimated price. It is not profitable for the Fund that the difference between them is too large, otherwise, investors will not buy shares. The market maker makes sure that the price on the stock exchange does not fluctuate much. He puts out large bids in a certain range. The current market price of the fund's shares can be viewed on the stock exchange or in the terminal.
🔴ETFs are a convenient and simple solution for investors who want to get "all in one". For example, they do not want to make a portfolio with their own hands or buy index assets separately. This tool is easy to buy and sell at any time. We can say that an ETF is trust management without red tape with documents and time limits.
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MOVING AVERAGE | 4 Efficient Methods To Apply
Hey traders,
The moving average is one of the most popular technical indicators.
It is applied in stocks/forex/crypto trading and proved its high level of efficiency.
There are hundreds of trading strategies based on MA.
In this post, we will discuss the 4 most popular ways to apply the moving average.
1️⃣The first method is applied to identify the market trend.
While the price keeps trading above the MA, one considers the trend to be bullish and looks for buying opportunities.
Once the price starts trading below the MA, the trend is considered to be bearish and a trader is looking for shorting opportunities.
2️⃣The second method applies the combination of 2 MA's: preferably a long-term one and a short-term one.
The point is that once a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term MA, with high probability it signifies the initiation of a bullish trend.
Alternatively, a crossover of short-term and long-term MA's to the downside indicates a start of a bearish trend.
3️⃣The third method applies MA as a structure.
While the moving average is lying above the price, it is considered to be a dynamic resistance.
Staying below the price it serves as a strong dynamic support.
Perceiving MA as the structure, one applies that for trade entries.
4️⃣The fourth method is aimed to track the crossover of the moving average and the price.
The idea is that a bullish violation of the MA by the price gives an early signal for a possible trend reversal.
While a bearish breakout of the MA by the market indicates a highly probable bullish trend violation.
Backtest different MA's inputs and learn to apply that for predicting the future direction of the market and for trading it.
Do you use MA?
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4 Harmonic Patterns Every Trader Should Know 📚
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss 4 phenomenally accurate harmonic patterns that you must know.
1️⃣The first and the simplest harmonic pattern is called ABCD pattern.
This pattern is based on 3 legs of a move:
✔️Initial impulse (bullish or bearish). AB leg
✔️Retracement leg with a completion point lying within the range of the initial impulse. BC leg.
✔️Second impulse with a completion point lying beyond the range of the initial impulse (it must have the same direction as the initial impulse). BD leg
Equal AB and CD legs indicate a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern.
❗️Please, note that the time horizon and the length of the impulses must be equal.
2️⃣The second harmonic pattern is called Gartley Pattern.
This pattern is based on 4 legs of a move and has a "W/M" shape form.
To identify a Harmonic Gartley Pattern we measure the retracement of B/C points with Fib. Retracement tool and extension of D point of a harmonic pattern with Fib. Extension tool:
✔️ - The retracement of B point should lie between 0.618 level and 0.786 level of XA leg (Fib. Retracement of XA)
*it can touch both 0.618 and 0.786
✔️ - The retracement of C point should lie between 0.618 level and 1.0 level of AB leg(Fib. Retracement of AB)
*it can touch both 0.618 and 1.0
✔️ - D point should lie strictly on 1.272 extension of AB leg (Fib. Extension of AB)
*it should strictly touch 1.272
Such a formation indicates a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern.
3️⃣The third harmonic pattern is called Bat Pattern.
This pattern is based on 4 legs of a move and has a "W/M" shape form.
To identify a Harmonic Bat Pattern we measure the retracement of B/C/D points of a harmonic pattern with Fib. Retracement tool:
✔️ - The retracement of B point should lie between 0.5 level and 0.618 level of XA leg (Fib. Retracement of XA)
*it can touch 0.5 but it can’t touch 0.618
✔️ - The retracement of C point should lie between 0.618 level and 1.0 level of AB leg(Fib. Retracement of AB)
*it can touch both 0.618 and 1.0
✔️ - The retracement of D point should lie strictly on 0.886 level of XA leg (Fib.Retracement of XA)
*it should strictly touch 0.886
Such a formation indicates a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern.
4️⃣The fourth harmonic pattern is called Cypher Pattern.
This pattern is based on 4 legs of a move and has a "W/M" shape form with C point lying beyond the range of XA leg.
To identify a Harmonic Cypher Pattern we measure the retracement of B point with Fib. Retracement tool and extension of C point with Fib. Extension tool:
✔️ - The retracement of B point should lie between 0.382 level and 0.618 level of XA leg (Fib. Retracement of XA)
*it can touch both 0.382 and 0.618
✔️ - The extension of C point should lie between 1.272 level and 1.414 level of XA leg(Fib. Extension of XA)
*it can touch both 1.272 and 1.414
✔️ - D point should lie strictly on 0.786 retracement of XC leg (Fib. Retracement of XC)
*it should strictly touch 0.786
Such a formation indicates a highly probable retracement from D point of the pattern.
🦉What is good about these patterns is the fact that they are objective.
Since each point of the pattern is measured with Fibonacci levels, one can avoid subjectivity.
Try harmonic pattern trading and you will see how efficient this strategy is.
Do you trade harmonic patterns?
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RISK : REWARD. Visualized breakdown
⚠️Regardless of whether you prefer day trading or swing trading, you need to understand the fundamental concepts regarding risk. They form the basis of understanding the market, managing trading activities, and investment decisions. Otherwise, you will not be able to protect and increase your balance.
We have already discussed risk management, position size, and stop-loss setting. But if you are actively trading, answer two important questions. How does the growth potential relate to potential losses? In other words, what is your risk-reward ratio?
In this article, we will discuss how to calculate the risk-to-profit ratio for any transaction.
✅What is the ratio of risk and profit?
🟢The risk-reward ratio (risk/reward or R/R ratio) allows you to understand what risk a trader is taking for the sake of a potential reward. In other words, it shows what the potential profit is for every dollar you risk when investing.
🟢The calculation itself is very simple. The maximum risk is divided by the net target profit. How exactly? First, think about where you want to enter into the transaction. Decide where you will take profit (if the trade is successful) and where to place a stop loss (if it is a losing trade). This is extremely important for effective risk management. Good traders set profit targets and stop-loss before entering a trade.
Now you have entry and exit points, that is, you can calculate the ratio of risk and profit. To do this, you need to divide the potential risk by the potential profit. The lower this coefficient is, the more potential profit you will receive per "unit" of risk. Let's figure out how it works.
✅How to calculate the ratio of risk and profit
🟢Let's say you want to open a long position on bitcoin. You perform an analysis and determine that your take profit order will be 15% of the entry price. Next, you have to answer the following question: where your position will be closed in case of a market reversal. This is where you will have to set a stop loss. In this case, you decide that your cancellation point will be 5% of the entry point.
It is worth noting that it, as a rule, should not be based on arbitrary percentage numbers. The profit target and stop loss should be determined based on market analysis. Technical analysis indicators are very useful for solving this problem.
🟢So, our profit target is 15%, and the potential loss is 5%. What is the ratio of risk and profit? 5/15 = 1:3 = 0,33. Everything is simple. This means that for each unit of risk we potentially win three times more. In other words, for every dollar we risk, we can get three dollars. Thus, if we have a position worth $100, then we risk losing $5 with a potential profit of 15.
🟢You can also move the stop loss closer to our entry to reduce this ratio. However, the entry and exit points should not be calculated arbitrarily, but solely based on analysis. If a trading position has a high risk-to-profit ratio, it is probably not worth "arguing" with the numbers and hoping for success. In this case, we recommend choosing another position with a good risk-reward ratio.
‼️Please note: positions with different sizes may have the same risk-to-profit ratio. For example, if we have a position worth $10,000, we risk losing $500 for a potential profit of $1,500 (the ratio is still 1:3). The ratio changes only if we change the relative position of our target and stop loss.
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CANDLESTICK PATTERN TRADING | Engulfing Candle 📚
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss a classic candlestick pattern formation each trader must know - the engulfing candle.
Key properties of this pattern:
🔑 Engulfing candle is a reversal pattern.
🔑 Engulfing candle can be bullish or bearish.
❗️Also, remember that this candle demonstrates the highest accuracy when it is formed on a key level (support or resistance).
⬆️Bullish Engulfing Candle usually forms after a strong bearish impulse.
Weakening, the market keeps going lower forming bearish candles.
However, at some moment, instead of forming a new bearish candle the market reverses. The price forms a bullish candle that engulfs the range of the previous bearish candle and closes above its opening price.
Such a candle we call a bullish engulfing candle.
The main feature of this pattern is the fact that its total range (distance from the wick high to wick low) & body range (distance from body open to body close) exceed the ranges of a previous bearish candle.
Being formed on a key support level or within a demand zone it signifies a highly probable pullback or even a trend reversal.
⬇️Bearish Engulfing Candle usually forms after a strong bullish move.
Reaching an overbought condition, the market keeps going higher forming bullish candles.
However, at some moment, instead of forming a new bullish candle the market goes in the opposite direction. The price forms a bearish candle that engulfs the range of the previous bullish candle and closes below its opening price.
Such a candle we call a bearish engulfing candle.
The main feature of this pattern is the fact that its total range (distance from the wick high to wick low) & body range (distance from body open to body close) exceed the ranges of a previous bullish candle.
Being formed on a key resistance level or within a supply zone it signifies a highly probable pullback or even a trend reversal.
📝Engulfing candle can be applied for scalping lower time frames, for intraday trading, or even for swing trading.
Personally, I apply this candle on daily/4h time frames as one of the confirmations of the strength of the structure level that I spotted.
Do you trade engulfing candle?
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WHAT IS MARGIN? Traders must know this📚
✅Significant investments are required to gain access to foreign exchange markets. Not everyone who wants to try their luck in the world of trading has such funds. However, thanks to brokers that act as intermediaries and provide loans to traders, trading has become available to everyone. Thus, the essence of margin trading is to conclude transactions in financial markets with the use of borrowed funds provided by a broker.
🟢The second name of margin trading is trading with leverage. Leverage is the ratio of your deposit to the amount of the working lot. To obtain this kind of credit, the trader's account must also have his funds. The minimum of the initial deposit is different and depends on the requirements of a particular broker.
🟢The margin on the stock and foreign exchange market is a pledge that is blocked by the broker on the trader's trading account during the opening of the transaction. In margin trading, the broker can issue a loan both in cash and in the form of securities. Margin is usually expressed as a percentage, showing what proportion of own funds must be deposited to open a position on a particular instrument. For example, a margin requirement of 20% means the possibility of opening a transaction with financial instruments if there is a fifth of their total value on the account. And the margin requirement of 50% allows you to open positions for a certain amount, having 50% of it on deposit.
❗️Margin trading allows a trader to sell the market, entering short positions in case of forecasting a decline in the price of a particular instrument. Let's consider the principle of opening a short position on the example of stocks.
❗️Expecting a decrease in the price of Vesta shares, a trader takes ten shares from a broker on credit and sells them on the stock exchange at the current price. After the predicted price drop, he buys ten shares at a lower cost. By returning them to the broker, the trader remains in profit. The lower the stock price falls, the more profit the trader will get.
⚠️The above transactions are actually carried out much easier. Technically, a trader does not need to sell securities and subsequently buy them again. To do this, you only need to instruct the broker to open a short position. If the trader's forecast turns out to be correct and the forecast price decreases, the trader will close the deal, fixing the profit. Otherwise, if the price increases, the trader will receive a loss.
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Trading on Financial Markets | Your Guide to Trade Planning 📝
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss 6 crucial things in your trade planning and the main elements of trade results assessment.
1 - Before you open a trading position, make sure that you analyzed the chart. You should identify a market trend and spot major key levels.
2 - Once the chart is analyzed, you should identify the safest trading areas for your strategy (preferably the zones of supply and demand).
You should patiently wait until one of these zones is tested.
3 - Once the zone is reached, you should look for a confirmation. You can either look for a reversal candlestick/price action pattern, some fundamental trigger, or some indicator. The point is that you should rely on a trigger that is backtested and that proved its accuracy.
4 - Getting your confirmation, you should have a precise entry strategy. Some traders prefer aggressive entries on spot while others are waiting for a retest of some major/minor level.
5 - You must set a stop loss. Remember that your stop-loss defines the point where you become wrong in your predictions. Be extremely careful on that step and give the market some space for fluctuations.
6- Know your exact target level(s). Know the point where you start protection of your position, where you start profit-taking. Be very strict and don't let your greed and fear intervene.
Only then a trading position is opened.
No matter what will be the end result of your trade, you should assess it:
1 - You should journal the trade outlining its end result, trading instrument, and your entry reason.
2 - Note any peculiar thing about this trade that you noticed.
3 - Record your gain/loss percentage.
4 - Identify whether any mistake was made and if so, learn from that.
Here is your minimum plan to follow. Of course, as you mature in trading your trade assessment plan will be more sophisticated.
Do not underestimate its importance and treat it as the main element of your trading routine.
Do you plan your trades like that?
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TRADING PSYCHOLOGY | Common Traps You Must Know 🧠💭💫
Hey traders,
Trading psychology plays a very important role in a learning curve of a trader. In this post, we will discuss common biases and traps that every struggling trader is occasionally facing.
⚓️Anchoring Bias
People rely too much on a reference point from the past when making a decision for the future - they are "anchored" to the past.
Imagine you spotted a great trading opportunity & made a nice profit. Encountering a similar setup in the future you trade it again. It turns out that you lose.
Next time - same thing. The setup that initially brought you nice cash refuses to work.
Even though the probabilities indicate that the identified pattern produces negative long-term returns, you keep taking that because you are "anchored" to the initial winner.
🙅♂️Loss Aversion
This is when people go to great lengths to avoid losses because the pain of loss is twice as the pleasure received from a win.
You see a great trading setup. You are 100% sure that it will play out. You open a trade and guess what? The market goes in the opposite direction. You can't believe that you are wrong. Instead, you decide to hold your position just a bit more adjusting your stop loss. And again, the market refuses to go in the direction that you projected. It is a vicious cycle that most of the time leads to substantial losses.
✅Confirmation Bias
The confirmation trap is when traders seek out the information that validates their opinions and ignores any theory that invalidates them.
You spotted a great long opportunity on GBPUSD. Checking the ideas of other traders on TradingView you consider only the ones that confirm your predictions completely ignoring the opposite ones.
👑Superiority Trap
Many traders have lost large sums of money in the past simply because they have fallen prey to the mentality of overconfidence.
Imagine that you caught a winning streak. You feel like the king of the world. You spend less and less time and reflection on each consequent trading decision that you make, you lose your focus. At some moment the reality kicks in and your gains evaporate.
🐮Herding
As a trader, you should execute your own analysis & avoid the temptation to blindly follow the majority.
Analyzing a EURUSD chart you make a conclusion that the market is bearish. However, then you see that 90% of the traders are very bullish on TradingView.
Instead of following your own analysis, you decide to join the herd.
These biases are common and most of the time we fall prey to them unconsciously.
The more you self-reflect, the more you analyze your thoughts and actions, it would be easier for you to avoid them.
Have your ever fallen prey to these traps?
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Breakout Trading | 7 Steps to Follow 📝
Hey traders,
Breakout trading is one of the most popular trading strategies.
Being quite simple in theory, it remains quite complex and complicated in practice.
In this post, we will discuss 7 steps every breakout trader must follow.
💬And just in brief about a breakout trading itself:
this method aims to spot a key level (it might be horizontal support/resistance or a trend line) and then to trade its occasional breakout assuming that it will trigger an impulsive move.
1️⃣No surprise, the first task of a breakout trader is the identification of key levels. Preferably these levels should be spotted on weekly/daily time frames.
2️⃣Once key levels are spotted, a breakout trader should patiently wait for the test of one of those. His goal is to wait for a breakout.
In that step, many traders fail. The problem is that in order to confirm the breakout, one should have strict & reliable rules to follow. The rules that describe a confirmed breakout.
*I apply the following rule: the breakout of a level will be considered to be confirmed once the candle closes above/below the structure on the highest time frame where the structure is recognizable.
3️⃣Once the breakout is confirmed, the next step is to wait for a retest of a broken level. Why retest? Simply because a retest gives a better risk to reward ratio for the trade. And even though there is no guarantee that the price will retest the broken level and because of that some trading opportunities will be missed, in the long run, retest trading produces higher gains.
4️⃣Opening a trade on a retest one should know the exact target levels. The levels where the profits will be taken. Again, newbies traders make a lot of mistakes on that step. Remember that your targets must be realistic, they must be based on closest strong structure levels, not on your desired returns.
5️⃣Also, a breakout trader should set a stop loss. And again, a stop-loss level must be safe, it must be set at least below/above a previous minor structure to protect you from stop-hunting.
Stop-loss reflects the point where the trader becomes wrong in his predictions and where the trading setup becomes invalid.
6️⃣Once the trading position is opened and stop-loss & take-profit are set, one should patiently wait. There is no guarantee that the price will start falling/growing sharply after the breakout. The market may start coiling for a quite long period of time before it starts acting.
Breakout trader must be patient not allowing his emotions to intervene.
7️⃣Lastly, one should remember that his exit points are stop-loss/take-profit levels. Stop-loss adjustment in case of a position drawdown, preliminary profit-taking, and target extension are your worst enemies. Be disciplined, don't be greedy, and keep your emotions in check.
Of course, this 7-steps trading plan is not sufficient enough for profitable breakout trading. There are so many nuances on each step of the plan to consider.
However, let this plan be your initial guideline: learn & follow that and with time, keep elaborating its rules until you become a consistently profitable trader.
Are you a breakout trader?
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ENGULFING CANDLE. Powerful reversal candlestick pattern🕯
✅Candlestick patterns trading is one of the oldest but most effective ways to analyze the foreign exchange market. The trader needs to find certain patterns, and based on them, decide where the price will go. Today we will talk about one of these candlesticks, which is called the "engulfing candle". There are two types of it: bullish and bearish. The appearance of such a model on the chart with a high probability indicates a possible reversal of the trend and is a signal to enter the market.
Types of engulfing and their features
⚠️So, we realized that there are two types of this candle:
🟢Bullish. It indicates that the trend is turning towards an increase in the value of an asset or currency pair. The candle must engulf the range of the previous bearish candle to be valid.
🟢Bearish. The same as with bullish, only the opposite. It indicates that the trend is turning towards a decrease in the value of the asset. In this case, the candle must engulf the range of the previous bullish candle.
✅The formation of the "Bullish engulfing" candle says that buyers have sat on the throne, and "Bearish" - sellers. Let's discuss the theoretical foundations of the pattern. In the case of the "bullish engulfing" pattern, everything will be the same, just the opposite.
Rules for the formation of the "bearish engulfing" pattern:
There should be a bullish trend in the market, and the price should be on a key level.
❗️A long-bodied bullish candle appears (that is, directed towards the trend). The opening of the second candle should be carried out with a gap relative to the closing of the first, and its body should be larger than that of the previous one. It seems to engulf the trend with its dimensions, and therefore it is necessary to sell (a bearish candle indicates the beginning of a downward trend).
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