The Story of a Failed Trader | OKXIDEASOnce upon a time there was a man who was a very poor and he belong to a middle class family but he had the ability to dream it. He was 20 years old and he also think that he spend all of had 20 years doing nothing, he was a dreamer. He wanted to become a rich man, he finding ways to become a rich man, he tried almost every thing but failed. One day he watched a video about trading on YouTube and he decided to become a trader, become a rich with trading and fulfill all of had dreams. He started to learn trading, he watched all of educational videos about trading on YouTube and spend had 15 hours every day just watching videos, now he knows about the basic trading he shifted to the analysis part of trading, he started to practice and learn the technical analysis. He find the method that he can trade with, he combined some technical indicator signals and created strategy for himself. Now he had very passionate about trading, wanted to open a real account and start trading with real account. He had some saving money around 500 dollar he deposited that money in the real account and start trading with that money. He started dreaming from the first day of trading and created some trading rules for himself like he had to take 10% risk per trade and don't take that trade which is below 1/1 risk to reward ratio. On the first day he had taken almost 3 trades and win all of them, now he was more excited for trading he had made $192 profit means something around 38% profit on 500 dollar account. He wanted to trade more but he was a little bit smarter one, he think that i am in profit and my wining ratio is 100% so why i just damage my wining ratio and why i just risk my today profit so he had decided to come back tomorrow. On the second day he had $692 total balance in the account, he had to play a little bit more smarter than a previous day and he decided to take 10% risk per trade of the current total balance $692 in the account rather than the starting balance which is $500. On the second day he take almost 4 trades and he won 2 trades out of 4 trades, now the account condition had almost break-even no loss & no profit, he decided to try again and trade more, he finding the reason to trade more and then he calculate today and yesterday total taken trades which is 7 trades, he think that i won 5 trades out of 7 trades so my wining ratio is almost around 70% which is good and i can trade more because my wining ratio is still above 50% so i am still in positive side. He trade almost 3 trades again and he lose all of them, now he had very sad and almost broken, he decided to step back and come back later. He sturdy himself and come back on the third day, now he had facing a little bit draw-down on the third day the total account balance is around 484 dollar, he started looking for the trades opportunity and at the end of the day he took almost 5 trades with the 10% risk per trade but the third day results had also again bad and he lose 4 trades out of 5 and just win 1 trade, he had very shameful from himself, he closed the laptop goes to outdoor and talk to himself. He analysis the current situation of the account, it that point the total account balance is around 276 dollar he almost around 45% in draw-down and the wining ratio had below 50% so now he entered to the negative side. On the fourth day morning he traded 2 trades and he lose both of them now he almost lose the hope and the account condition had around 72% in draw-down and he left only 138 dollar in the account. At the time he give up and he just decided to depend on just one trade, he just waiting for the best opportunity of the day and finally he got the trade but at the end he lose that trade again and he almost blow out had account.
After that all he had stressful and sad from almost one week, he decided to leave the trading and move on to the next thing and he looking to find other things that suitable for him because he think that trading is not suitable for him. One month later he just scrolling on the internet and he see the FAQ that 90% of traders lose and only 10% had succeed, now he had a little bit shock and he think that its pretty normal every trader in the 90% had facing that stage which stage that i faced.
He decided to come back to trading and start from the zero, he started to modify had strategy and created new rules for had strategy like he set this time risk to reward ratio for had trades is minimum 1/2 and he decided to risk only 2% of the total account also he decided to take only 2 trades per day, this time he opened the demo account rather than the real account and start trading with demo account, he decided to journal had journey and after one month of consistency he hadn't break any rules and when he see the results after month he had profitable, now he feel like stronger and he continue the journey with that same demo account after three months he had similar results and still profitable. In that time he think that i don't have much money and in trading it's required a lot of money to earn a lot of profits, he started to search for that how he had to prove himself to big investors and raise money for himself to trade. One day he searching and he knows about prop firms trading now he had interested in that and wanted to know more about prop firms, he think that this is the big opportunity for himself to become succeed quickly, now he decided to trade with prop firms and buy the challenge from the prop firms, he adjusted had strategy rules and trading plan according to the prop firms requirement, now but the only problem is that he don't have money to actually buy the prop firms challenge. By the way he was dropout from the school after completing had secondary education and so he just setting at the home, he don't have much money to buy the challenge, the pocket money of him had just depend on him father and he hadn't want to say to father to give me extra money because of him father was very poor and he work as a taxi driver, so then he had decided to get the any kind of job for himself and try to earn some money in the form of salary and buy the challenge with that money, he worked hard and after one month he got the salary and then he just swift to the prop firm website and buy the $50000 account challenge for himself, now he started trading with challenge account phase one, on the phase one he decided to risk only 1% per trade, take only 2 trades a day and the every trade risk to reward ratio had to minimum 1/2 after one month of consistency he gained +8% profit, he was in profit but he hadn't achieved the prop firm required profit target which is +10% in that case prop firm gives traders free retake so then he take the challenge again with the new account and new month from zero and he think that my wining ratio for the previous month is almost around 40% with minimum 1/2 risk to reward ratio and my daily limit is 2 trades so i need to increase my daily limit from 2 to 3 because if i traded with the same rule 2 trades a day then i hadn't pass with 40% wining ratio. He calculate some numbers like he think, if i take 3 trades per day so then at the end of the month my all trades had to be 60 trades per month and if i maintain my 40% wining ratio then i can easily pass the challenge with that mindset he started the challenge and strictly follow the rules after month he hadn't maintain the 40% wining ratio and he end up with some loss and failed the challenge, this time he almost faced big depression after some days left he realized had mistake and he think i made mistake that i increase my daily trades limit because of this my wining accuracy goes down, i just forced myself to take 3 trades per day and get trapped into the normal trades.
At that time he hadn't left any pathway he almost try everything but at the end he faced failure, him father had now getting older and he decided to step back again he start going to the normal job and start saving 30% of had salary, he do that job for almost one year and after one year later he had some saved money in the bank account to buy multiple 10x challenges, he come back to the trading but this time he hadn't leave the job and he do trading like part time thing. He started had journey again he decided to hadn't give up and repeat the process so then he started buying challenges after one by one in some challenges he failed in phase one in some he failed in phase two in some he almost pass the challenge and got the live funded account but hadn't get payout and lose the account in the first month.
The journey had started goes on and he just repeating the process and doing try again and again.
Will be continued.....
Some lessons from the story
> Never open real account in the start, try to learn first on demo account.
> Don't try to be smart in the front of the market.
> Don't lose hope in draw-downs just repeat the process of your trading plan.
> Take every trade with the hope of wining.
> Never depend on a single trade.
> Don't leave too fast stay in the market.
> Give yourself enough time to create the solid proven strategy that works at least for you.
> Respect your trading limits.
> Don't depend on just trading and never leave your job, consider trading like part-time thing in the starting.
> Learn from your mistakes and improve your performance.
> Make mistakes but don't repeat that mistakes again.
> Never depend on small capital always look for an opportunity.
> Journal your journey, record your trading performance and improve next time.
> Don't fear from failure.
> Be patient, market is here not going anywhere.
> Don't force yourself to take normal trades wait for good opportunity always.
> Don't count the numbers, you need to count the percentage.
> Don't try to be rich quickly.
> Step back, if you damaged from market then simply step back and come back stronger don't try to fight.
If you learned any other lessons from the story, let me know in the comments.
What you feel about one day he will be succeed or just the failure always, also let me know in the comments.
I hope you enjoyed the story, appreciate my work with like comments and share.
I wish you good luck in trading.
Tradingeducation
Common Fears in Trading and How to Overcome Them
As we discussed many types, psychology plans a crucial role in trading. Even the best strategy in the world, can be screwed by emotional decisions.
In this educational articles, we will discuss 5 common fears in trading and the ways to overcome them.
1️⃣Fear of the Unknown.
Lack of experience make many traders face "unusual" situations on the market: the setups, patterns, fluctuations and formation that they have never seen before. Such events cause inaction and paralyze. Not knowing how to deal with such situations, newbies make irrational decisions that most of the time incur losses.
✔️Solution:
The best way to beat the fear of the unknown is to keep learning:
reading the books, watching the charts, studying the historical data will help you to be prepared for various situations.
Also, your mindset plays an important role here: your adaptability, your willingness to accept the changing nature of the market are essential for your success in trading.
2️⃣Fear of Being Wrong.
Testing multiple strategies and trading techniques, the only way for the newbie traders to prove their efficiency is to try them, try them on real market. And of course, the majority of the stuff that you will try won't work. In trading, each mistake costs money, hence, losses will be inevitable.
The fear to make a mistake will be chasing you.
✔️Solution:
The best way to overcome the fear of being wrong is to build a confidence in your actions. After trying multiple strategies, you will certainly find the one that works. More you will trade with that, more winning trades you will catch, more confident you will become in your system.
3️⃣FOMO - Fear of Missing Out
There are thousands of instruments to trade. Many markets are opened 24 hours a day. Of course, you can not monitor them all, and even if you have a fixed watch list of the instruments that you trade, you can not monitor them 24/7.
Some opportunities will always be missed. Some trading setups will form while you are sleeping, and accurate patterns will form on the instruments that are not in your watch list.
Realizing the fact, that something will always be missed, is painful.
For that reason, newbie traders are trying to be present everywhere at anytime. But the paradox is that more options breed more confusion.
✔️Solution:
Always remember the fact that patience always pays.
Opportunities will always come, but in order to catch them, you need focus. And fewer instruments you have in your watch list, more attention you pay to them.
4️⃣Fear of Losing Money
The biggest risk in trading is the fact that your entire trading account can be blown in a glimpse of an eye.
Moreover, trading can be learned only by trading. And losses are inevitable, no matter how good you are.
That makes newbie traders be scared of opening just one single position.
✔️Solution:
I always give my students the recommendation to trade with the amount that they can afford themselves to lose.
Consider your trading account as an investment. With each single trade, you are investing in your skills, in your knowledge. You pay the market to teach you.
5️⃣Fear of Not Taking Profit at the Right Time
Imagine you opened a trade and the market suddenly starts moving in the direction that you expected. It is coming closer and closer to your target... A few seconds after, however, the market rolls over. You see how your profits start evaporation. Probably you chose incorrect take profit level? Maybe it is the moment to close the trade manually?
You are scared that all the profits will be gone.
✔️Solution:
Take profit level selection is a very hard element of each trading strategy. The only way to not let your emotions intervene is to build the solid system that proved its efficiency and learn to be disciplined to follow that no matter what.
Always remember that no one can teach you how to deal with yourself. How to deal with your emotions.
You should go through all these fears by your own and find the way to beat these dragons.
The solutions that I shared helped me to beat my dragons, I hope that they will help you to beat yours!
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What is Trading Plan? Detailed Example
A short ⚠️disclaimer before we start:
the rules that will be discussed in this post are applicable only for technicians - traders that are relying on price action/structure/etc.
Also, we assume that structure levels do work and for us, key levels are considered to be the safest trading zones/points.
In order to increase the accuracy of your predictions analyzing different financial markets, you must learn to identify the direction of the market.📈
The identification of the market trend must be based on strict & reliable & testable rules.
It can be based on technical indicators or price action
Personally, I prefer to rely on price action.
There are three main types of market trends:
Bullish Trend
Bearish Trend
Sideways Market
Depending on the current direction of the market, on the chart, I drew a flow chart✔️ that will help you to act safely.
➡️Sideways market signifies consolidation & indecision. Usually being in such a state the market tends to coil in horizontal ranges.
To trade such a market safely, the best option for you will be to wait for a breakout of the range & wait for the initiation of the trend.
➡️Once you spotted a bullish market, do not rush to buy.
Your task will be to identify the closest strong structure support .
You must be patient enough to let the price reach that support first (and by the way, there is no guarantee that it will happen) and then you must wait for a certain confirmation.
Only once you get the needed confirmation you can buy the market.
➡️The same strategy will be applicable to a bearish market.
Spotting a short rally it is way early to just sell the asset from a random point.
You must find the closest strong structure resistance and wait for the moment when the price will approach that.
Then your task will be to wait for a confirmation and only when you got the reliable trigger you short the market.
🦉Try to rely on this flow chart and I promise you that you will see a dramatic increase in your trading performance.
And even though it may appear to you that this flow chart is TOO SIMPLE, in practice, even such a set of rules requires iron discipline and patience.
Thank you so much for reading this article,
I hope you enjoy it!
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
♦️BAD MINDSET IS YOUR ENEMY♦️
♦️Forex trading is one of the most exciting and lucrative ventures that anyone can undertake. With the right mindset and tools, one can make a lot of money by trading currencies. However, the opposite is also true. A bad mindset can lead to disastrous consequences in forex trading. It is, therefore, important for traders to understand the effects of a bad mindset and avoid them at all costs.
♦️One of the most common effects of a bad mindset in forex trading is overthinking. When traders overthink, they become too analytical and too cautious. This can lead to missed opportunities and bad trading decisions. Overthinking can also lead to indecision and second-guessing, which can be harmful in a fast-paced and dynamic market like forex.
♦️Another effect of a bad mindset is emotional trading. Emotions like fear, greed, and impatience can lead to irrational trading decisions. For example, a trader may hold onto a losing position for too long in the hope that it will eventually turn profitable. This can lead to bigger losses and a further deterioration of the trader’s mindset. Similarly, greed can lead to taking on too much risk, which can also lead to disastrous consequences.
♦️A bad mindset can also cause traders to be too dependent on their trading strategies. While having a good trading strategy is important, it is equally important to be flexible and open-minded. A trader who is too reliant on their strategy may miss out on profitable opportunities that do not fit their style. This can lead to missed profits and frustration.
♦️Lastly, a bad mindset can lead to overconfidence. Traders who are overconfident may take on too much risk or ignore important market signals. This can lead to catastrophic losses and a severe blow to the trader’s ego. Overconfidence can also lead to ignoring basic risk management principles, which is a recipe for disaster.
♦️In conclusion, a bad mindset can have a significant impact on forex trading success. Traders who are too analytical, too emotional, too dependent, or too overconfident may make bad trading decisions that can result in losses. It is, therefore, important for traders to stay calm, flexible, and open-minded in their approach to forex trading. A winning mindset can help traders achieve success and make profitable trades in the dynamic and exciting forex market.
Thanks for reading bro, you are the best☺️
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❗️CONFIRMATION BIAS IS YOUR ENEMY❗️
🏛As traders, we are constantly bombarded with information on the global economic landscape, market trends, and potential investments. With so much information at our fingertips, it is easy to fall victim to a cognitive bias known as confirmation bias.
🏛Confirmation bias, also known as selective perception, is the tendency for individuals to seek out and interpret information in a way that confirms their existing beliefs or hypotheses. In the world of trading, confirmation bias can be particularly dangerous, as it can lead traders to make decisions based on incomplete or biased information.
🏛For example, imagine you hold a strong belief that apple stocks are going to rise in the coming months. You begin to search for information to support this belief - perhaps you read articles, listen to news broadcasts, and consult financial websites that all confirm your hypothesis. Meanwhile, you are dismissing any information that contradicts your belief, such as negative earnings reports, changes in the market, or negative press.
🏛The problem with this type of thinking is that it can lead traders to ignore crucial signs that could indicate a shift in the market. Confirmation bias can cloud our judgment and hinder our ability to make objective, data-driven decisions.
🏛To avoid confirmation bias, traders need to actively seek out and consider evidence that contradicts their established beliefs. By doing so, traders can obtain a more comprehensive view of the market and make informed decisions based on all available information.
🏛Furthermore, it is essential to rely on multiple sources of information, including information from trusted analysts, financial experts, and data-driven research. Traders must be able to evaluate information objectively and dispose of preconceived notions that may color their decision-making process.
🏛In conclusion, confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that can significantly impair traders' abilities to make sound decisions in the market. Traders must be cognizant of this bias and actively work to identify and address it by seeking out multiple sources of information, analyzing data objectively, and challenging their preconceived beliefs. Only by doing so can traders ensure that their decisions are based on informed and rational conclusions, rather than biased opinions or incomplete information.
Thanks for reading bro, you are the best☺️
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The Process of Creating StrategyHello traders,
In this post i am going to show that how we can create and develop the trading strategy that works.
Now the first step we need to do is just search and find the any trading method that suitable for us for example that would be like elliott wave, ict concept, VSA, just using indicators and maybe you can also create your own method and backtest it. when you learned the method now its time to create your trading rules every strategy has own different rules like what is your risk to reward ratio? what is your trade management plan? either you manage your trade or just take the trade and come back after its hit TP or SL, how much is your daily limit means how much trades you will be taking in a day or in a week if you want to become a swing trader depends on you, what is your risk per trade? can you will be cutting the risk to half or just use fixed risk after lose trade? what is your daily limit of losing? can you hold trade overnight or over weekend? what is your trading timeframe? what is your trading sessions? etc...
These all kind of rules you will be require to create for yourself they might be different rules depends on your strategy method now we learned the method and created the rule move forward to the next step is open the live demo trading account and trade with your strategy and apply the rules don't break the rules that you created trade at least 30 days and journal your data your taking trades after 30 days check the journal you will see your data for example in your rules you set 1/2 risk reward ratio so you need to have around 40% winning ratio check the journal check the results did you have a 40% winning ratio if the answer is yes then good to go i am sure that you know what to do next but if you failed and your winning ratio is below 40% now analyze your journal data the trades you taken you will see some of bad trades that you don't wanted to trade again just avoid those trades next time and try again the process for the next 30 days. repeat the process one day you will be profitable and consistent but if you not then try again again learn from your mistakes and don't do that mistakes again.
When yo have been profitable this is the time you wanna enter in the market open the real live trading account and start trading with your strategy and follow the rules that you created for yourself run the process and always remember trading is not quick rish scheme you need to have a lot of patience, trading is a long run game like marathon race and its required patience. some of my advice is don't try to break the rules, don't depend on one trade, some times market will give you some results that you don't want from it but be patient and be consistent with your strategy with your rules, you will be facing drawdowns but that is the learning process you will learn a lot from the drawdown so with the time you will be better consistent and be profitable just don't leave the process too soon and believe in yourself and try again again and again, trading is a very beautiful and also the easiest thing to live life but firstly in the starting it required from us to pass the test. trading is a very easiest thing but also a very hardest thing. i hope you find this post useful, i wish you good luck and good trading.
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The Two Types of Risk Management PlanHello traders,
1) Fixed Risk
Calculates position size for next trade as a percentage of account depend on how much risk you willing to take every time every trade you taking you need to use fixed risk for every trade like for example 1% risk per trade so in this type of risk management plan we should require 100 losing trades in a row to blowing out our account a lot of people just using this simple method and this is very easy and understandable.
2) Cutting the Risk :
In this method cutting the risk we just normally trade 1% risk per trade but if we lose that trade so we just cut the risk to half for example if i trade with 1% risk and i lose so now the next second trade which i am taking i will be using 0.5% risk in that trade if i lose then i will be just keep using the same risk 0.5% some traders are are keep reducing the risk size like they come all the way to to 0.25% maybe they work for it but in our scenario if we keep losing we will be not reducing more than 0.5% risk per trade and when win comes then after our winning trade we will be back to the normal risk which is 1% risk per trade and keep trading with 1% risk per trade so short summary is if we lose cut the risk to half if we when if we win back to the normal risk if we win again stay with same normal risk but if lose then reduce the risk to half.
The reason behind that is in the fixed risk you have 100 traders to blowing out your account means 100 chances but in cutting the risk now we just calculate if we lose 100 trades in a row like fixed risk we would not blow out our account,, let's say we take our first trade and we lose now we are in -1% then another trade we will be taking with 0.5% per trade risk so here is 0.5% × 100 trades = 50 means if we continue to lose in a row after 100 trades we will be facing -50 draw down, so cutting the risk to half after lose trade is the safest method who wants to play safe and more chances to survive in the market.
I wish you good luck and good trading.
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Patience in Trading Hello traders,
Patience in trading is ability to wait to take the right action, if you have not enough patience you will have bad trades bad decisions and cause you to take action too soon.
3 things you should avoid if you want to become a better trader and improve your patience in trading.
1) Don't Rush :
Market is there not going anywhere so don't need to rush in bad trades stick to your best trade setups and always looking for an opportunity don't rush into normal trades.
So don't need to rush just relax and take things step by step, enjoy the journey of your trading.
''If you need to hurry, you are already too late''
2) Over Confident :
Over confident is a very worse thing especially in trading when someone overestimates their own skill and knowledge which can lead to them making mistakes.
There are some types of over confident like wishful thinking, over ranking, and illusion of control etc...
These all of types over confident can lead to big losses in trading.
Some of things that you can do to overcome your over confidence in trading is :
> Don't believe too much in your skills
> Always use stop loss
> Don't thinking just only for today
> Create your trading rules and don't break stick to it
> Always stay in the middle line don't go to the extreme which cause you over confident and don't go to the slight which cause you depression.
''We can never reach a stage where we can say, i know everything and i have nothing more left to learn''
3) Believe :
Believe in yourself if you don't have enough believe in your trading system or any kind of decisions you take in trading you can lead to big losses like comes in fear and try to close running trades and don't have enough believe in your taken trades.
Try to believe in yourself, try to believe in your decisions, try to believe in your trading system and be patient with your taken steps and wait for the outcome either it will bad or good doesn't matter just continue the process and learn from your previous mistakes and be better next time.
''Trust yourself, you know more than you think you do''
These are 3 things that you should need to do for patience in trading.
If you have any advice to be patient in trading please let me know in the comments.
I wish you good luck and good trading.
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Learn Top 4 Price Action Pattern to Trade Reversals
Hey traders,
In this article, I will share with you the list of 4 best reversal price action patterns.
📍Ascending & Descending Triangles
The main element of the ascending triangle as the REVERSAL pattern is the BEARISH impulse leg, preceding the formation of the pattern.
The pattern consist of 2 main elements:
a horizontal neckline based on the equal highs,
a rising trend line based on the higher lows.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying at least below the level of the last higher low.
🎯Take profit is the next historical resistance.
——————
📍The main element of the descending triangle formation as the reversal pattern is the BULLISH leg, preceding the formation of the pattern.
The pattern consist of 2 main elements:
a horizontal neckline based on the equal lows,
a falling trend line based on the lower highs.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and candle close below.
📉The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying at least above the level of the last lower high.
🎯Take profit is the next historical support.
📍Rising & Falling Wedges
What makes a rising wedge pattern a reversal pattern?
Before the formation of the pattern, the price should form a strong bullish impulse and trade in a bullish trend.
The pattern consists of 2 contracting, rising trend lines based on the higher highs and higher lows.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a support of the pattern and candle close below.
📉The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying above the high of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal support.
——————
What makes a falling wedge pattern a reversal pattern?
Before the formation of the pattern, the price should form a strong bearish impulse and trade in a bearish trend.
The pattern consist of 2 contracting falling trend lines based on the lower lows and lower highs.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a resistance of the pattern and candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying below the low of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal resistance.
📍Double Top & Bottom
Double bottom pattern usually forms at the end of a bearish trend.
After a strong bearish impulse, the price retraces, sets a lower high and retests the current low.
Instead of going lower, the price retraces one more time, retests the level of the last lower high and breaks it.
Such a formation confirms a bullish reversal.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and a candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying below the lows of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal resistance.
——————
Double top pattern usually forms at the end of a bullish trend.
After a strong bullish impulse, the price retraces, sets a higher low and retests the current high.
Instead of going higher, however, the price retraces one more time, retests the level of the last higher low and breaks it.
Such a formation confirms a bearish reversal.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and a candle close below.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying above the highs of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal support.
📍Head & Shoulders Pattern & Inverted One
Inverted H&S pattern usually forms at the end of a bearish trend.
The price forms a zig-zag movement with 3 main elements:
the left shoulder with a lower low, the head with a new lower low, and the right shoulder with a higher low.
While the price sets multiple lows, it keeps setting the equal highs, composing a so-called horizontal neckline.
A bullish reversal becomes confirmed once the price breaks and closes above the neckline.
❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and a candle close above.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying below the lows of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal resistance.
——————
Head & Shoulders pattern usually forms at the end of a bullish trend.
The price forms a zig-zag movement with 3 main elements:
the left shoulder with a higher high, the head with a new higher high, and the right shoulder with a lower high.
While the price sets multiple highs, it keeps setting the equal lows, composing a so-called horizontal neckline.
A bearish reversal becomes confirmed once the price breaks and closes below the neckline.
❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and a candle close below.
📈The position is opened on a retest.
🔴Stop loss is lying above the highs of the pattern.
🎯Take profit is the closest horizontal support.
In order to increase the accuracy of trading these patterns, I would recommend trading them only if they are formed on key levels:
Bearish patterns on key resistances and bullish patterns on key supports.
Also, higher is the time frame where you spotted the patterns, higher is the chance that it will give a valid reversal signal.
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Fibonacci Levels and How They Can Be Used in TradingGreetings, @TradingView community! This is @Vestinda, bringing you a helpful article on the topic of Fibonacci Retracements and how to effectively utilize them in your trading strategies.
Fibonacci retracement levels are helpful for traders and investors in financial markets. They're horizontal lines on price charts that can show where price may reverse direction.
These levels are based on the Fibonacci sequence, which is a series of numbers that occur in math and finance.
Use case:
The first thing to understand about the Fibonacci tool is that it is most effective when the market is trending.
In an upward trending market, traders commonly use the Fibonacci retracement tool to identify potential buying opportunities on retracements to key support levels. Conversely, in a downward trending market, traders may look for opportunities to short sell when the price retraces to a Fibonacci resistance level.
Fibonacci retracement levels are regarded as a predictive technical indicator because they attempt to forecast where the price will be in the future.
Based on the theory, when trend direction is established, the price tends to partially return or retrace to a previous price level before continuing to move in the direction of the trend.
How to Find Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Fibonacci retracement levels can be found by identifying the key Swing High and Swing Low points of an asset's price movement. Once these points are established, you can use the Fibonacci retracement tool, which calculates the potential levels of support and resistance based on the ratios between the key points.
To apply the Fibonacci retracement tool, click and drag from the Swing Low to the Swing High in a downtrend, or from the Swing High to the Swing Low in an uptrend. This generates a set of horizontal lines at predetermined Fibonacci ratios, including 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%.
Are you keeping up with me? ;)
Now, let's explore some examples of how Fibonacci retracement levels can be applied in cryptocurrency trading
The Uptrend:
In this instance, the Fibonacci retracement levels were plotted by selecting the Swing Low and Swing High points, which were observed on January 8th, 2021 at a price of $41,904.
The Fibonacci retracement levels were $33,521 (23.6%), $29,197 (38.2%), $26,114 (50.0%*), $23,356 (61.8%), and $19,925 (76.4%), as shown in the chart.
Traders anticipating that if BTC/USD retraces from its recent high and it will likely find support at a Fibonacci retracement level. This is due to the tendency of traders to place buy orders at these levels as the price drops, creating a potential influx of buying pressure that can drive up prices.
While the 50.0% ratio is not officially recognized as a Fibonacci ratio, it has nonetheless become widely used and has persisted over time.
Now, let’s look at what happened after the Swing High occurred.
Price bounced through the 23.6% level and continued to fall over the next few weeks.
Two times tested 38.2% but was unable to fall below it.
Subsequently, around January 28th, 2021, the market continued its upward trend and surpassed the previous swing high.
Entering a long position at the 38.2% Fibonacci level would have likely resulted in a profitable trade over the long run.
The Downtrend
Next, we will explore the application of the Fibonacci retracement tool in a downtrend scenario. Here is a 4-hour chart depicting the price action of ETH/USD.
As you can see, we found our Swing High at $289 on 14 February 2020 and our Swing Low at $209 later on 27 February 2020
The retracement levels are $225 (23.6%), $236 (38.2%), $245 (50.0%), $255 (61.8%) and $269 (76.4%).
In a downtrend, a retracement from a low could face resistance at a Fibonacci level due to selling pressure from traders who want to sell at better prices. Technical traders often use Fibonacci levels to identify areas of potential price resistance and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
Let’s take a look at what happened next.
The market did make an attempt to rise, but it briefly halted below the 38.2% level before reaching the 50.0% barrier.
The placement of orders at the 38.2% or 50.0% levels would have resulted in a profitable trade outcome.
In these two instances, we can observe that price positioned itself at a Fibonacci retracement level to find some temporary support or resistance.
These levels develop into self-fulfilling support and resistance levels as a result of all the people who utilize the Fibonacci tool.
All those pending orders could affect the market price if enough market participants anticipate a retracement to take place close to a Fibonacci retracement level and are prepared to enter a position when the price hits that level.
In conclusion:
It's important to note that pricing doesn't always follow an upward trajectory from Fibonacci retracement levels. Instead, these levels should be approached as potential areas for further research and analysis.
If trading were as simple as placing orders at Fibonacci retracement levels, markets wouldn't be so volatile.
However, as we all know, trading is a complex and dynamic process that requires a combination of knowledge, skill, and experience to succeed.
We are truly grateful for your attention and time in reading this post. If you found it insightful and beneficial, we would be thrilled if you could show your support by clicking the <> button and subscribing to our page.
We are excited to share that our upcoming post will showcase what occurs when Fibonacci retracement levels do not perform as expected. Stay tuned for an informative and professional read.
Understanding Anchoring Bias in Trading
Anchoring is a heuristic in behavioral finance that describes the subconscious use of irrelevant information, such as the purchase price of a security, as a fixed reference point (or anchor) for making subsequent decisions about that security. Thus, people are more likely to estimate the value of the same item higher if the suggested sticker price is $100 than if it is $50.
Anchoring is a cognitive bias in which the use of an arbitrary benchmark such as a purchase price or sticker price carries a disproportionately high weight in one's decision-making process. The concept is part of the field of behavioral finance, which studies how emotions and other extraneous factors influence economic choices.
An anchoring bias can cause a financial market participant, such as a financial analyst or investor, to make an incorrect financial decision, such as buying an overvalued investment or selling an undervalued investment. Anchoring bias can be present anywhere in the financial decision-making process, from key forecast inputs, such as sales volumes and commodity prices, to final output like cash flow and security prices.
Historical values, such as acquisition prices or high-water marks, are common anchors. This holds for values necessary to accomplish a certain objective, such as achieving a target return or generating a particular amount of net proceeds. These values are unrelated to market pricing and cause market participants to reject rational decisions.
Beware of your mental fallacies. They are your main enemy in trading.
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Navigating the Uncertainties of Fibonacci Retracements in CryptoHello, @TradingView community! I'm @Vestinda, and I'm thrilled to share an informative article with you today about Fibonacci Retracements.
While they can be useful tools for traders and investors in financial markets, it's important to note that they are not infallible and may not always produce the desired outcomes.
As discussed in our previous post, Fibonacci support and resistance levels are not infallible and may occasionally break. It is essential to remain vigilant and use these levels in conjunction with other technical indicators and market analysis to make informed trading decisions.
While Fibonacci retracements can be a useful tool in technical analysis, it is crucial to exercise caution and not solely rely on them as the sole basis for trading decisions.
Unfortunately, Fibonacci retracements are not infallible and may not always work as expected.
Let us examine a scenario where the Fibonacci retracement tool proves to be ineffective in technical analysis.
To make a prudent trading decision amidst the ongoing downtrend of the pair, you make a strategic choice to leverage the Fibonacci retracement tool. With meticulous attention to detail, you designate the swing low at 3,882 and the swing high at 10,482 for precise determination of a Fibonacci retracement entry point.
The BTC/USD Daily chart is shown below.
Upon careful analysis, it is evident that the pair has rebounded from the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level for multiple candles. As an astute trader, you recognize this crucial pattern and conclude that it is a viable opportunity to enter a short position.
You thoughtfully consider, "This particular Fibonacci retracement level is showing remarkable resilience. It is undoubtedly a lucrative moment to short it."
You may have been tempted to take a short position in anticipation of profiting from the downtrend of the pair, while simultaneously daydreaming of cruising down Rodeo Drive in a Maserati.
However, if you had placed an order at that level without proper risk management, your hopes of profit would have quickly dissipated as your account balance plummeted.
Observing the price action of BTC, let's examine what occurred next.
Indeed, the price action of BTC demonstrates that the market is constantly evolving, and traders must be prepared to adapt to these changes.
As shown in this specific case, the price not only climbed close to the Swing High level, but the Swing Low marked the bottom of the previous downtrend. This serves as a prime example of the significance of flexibility in the dynamic realm of cryptocurrency trading.
What can we learn from this?
In the world of cryptocurrency trading, Fibonacci retracement levels can be a useful tool to increase your chances of success. However, it's important to understand that they are not foolproof and may not always work as intended. It's possible that the price may reach levels of 50.0% or 61.8% before reversing, or that the market may surge past all Fibonacci levels.
Additionally, the choice of Swing Low and Swing High to use can also be a source of confusion for traders, as everyone has their own biases, chart preferences, and timeframes.
In uncertain market conditions, there is no one correct course of action, and utilizing the Fibonacci retracement tool can sometimes feel like a guessing game. To improve your chances of success, it's crucial to develop your skills and use Fibonacci retracements in conjunction with other tools in your trading toolkit.
Thank you for taking the time to read our post.
We sincerely appreciate your attention and hope that you found it informative and helpful. If you did, we kindly request that you show your support by clicking the "Boost" button and subscribing to our page. Your support helps us create more valuable content for our community.
😎MYTHS ABOUT TRADING BUSTED😎
⚛️The world of trading is full of myths and misconceptions. We often hear stories of overnight successes and devastating losses. It can be difficult to separate truth from fiction when it comes to trading. In this article, we will debunk some of the most common trading myths and provide the facts to help you make better investment decisions.
❌Myth: Trading is Gambling
✅Fact: Trading involves analyzing market trends, researching companies and industries, and making informed decisions based on data. Successful traders do not simply rely on luck; they systematically evaluate risk and reward before making trades.
❌Myth: You Need to be a Financial Expert to Trade
✅Fact: While a basic understanding of the market is important, you do not need a degree in finance to be a successful trader. There are numerous resources available to help beginners learn the basics of trading, including online courses, tutorials, and mentorship programs.
❌Myth: Day Trading is the Best Way to Make Money Quickly
✅Fact: Day trading involves buying and selling assets within a single trading day in order to profit on short-term price movements. While it can be lucrative, it is also risky and requires significant time and effort. Many successful traders prefer to take a long-term approach, focusing on investments that will appreciate over time.
❌Myth: You Need a Lot of Money to Start Trading
✅Fact: While having a larger investment portfolio can certainly provide more opportunities for profit, you do not need a huge amount of money to start trading. Many online brokers offer low minimum account balances, making it easier for beginners to start investing.
❌Myth: Trading is Only for the Wealthy
✅Fact: Trading is accessible to anyone with an internet connection and a willingness to learn. While high net worth individuals may have more resources to invest, anyone can start trading with a little bit of research and a willingness to take calculated risks.
❌Myth: Technical Analysis is the Only Way to Predict Market Trends
✅Fact: Technical analysis involves analyzing charts and data to predict future market trends. While it can be a valuable tool, it is not the only way to make informed trading decisions. Fundamental analysis, which involves evaluating a company's financial health and growth potential, is equally important.
❌Myth: Trading is a Solo Endeavor
✅Fact: Trading can be a solitary activity, but it is important to take advantage of opportunities to learn from and collaborate with other traders. Online forums like Tradingview, mentorship programs, and networking events can all provide valuable insights and support.
✳️In conclusion, there are many myths surrounding trading that can prevent individuals from taking advantage of its potential benefits. By separating fact from fiction, traders can make informed decisions and increase their chances of success. Whether you are a seasoned investor or a beginner, knowledge and education are essential to achieving your financial goals.
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THE TYPICAL WEEK OF A TRADER 🗓
In this educational article, I will teach you how to properly plan your trading week.
Sunday.
While the markets are closed, it is the best moment to prepare the charts for next week.
First of all, charts should be cleaned after the previous trading week: multiple setups and patterns become invalid or simply lose their significance and their stay on the charts will only distract.
Secondly, key levels: support and resistance, supply and demand zones and trend lines should be updated. Similarly to patterns, some key levels become invalid after a previous week, for that reason, structures should be reviewed.
Monday.
Analyze the market opening, go through your watch list and check the reaction of the markets.
Flag / mark the trading instruments that you should pay a close attention to. Set alerts and look for trading setups.
Tuesday. Wednesday. Thursday.
If you opened a trading position, keep managing that.
Pay attention to your active trades, go through your watch list and monitor new trading setups.
Friday.
Assess the entire trading week. Check the end result, journal your winning and losing trades. Work on mistakes.
Decide whether to keep holding the active position over the weekend or look for a way to exit the market before it closes.
Saturday.
Stay away from the charts. Meditate, relax and chill while the markets are closed.
Trading for more than 9-years, I found that such a plan is the optimal for successful full-time / part-time trading. Try to follow this schedule and let me know if it is convenient for you
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Multiple Time Frames Can Multiply Returns
In order to consistently make money in the markets, traders need to learn how to identify an underlying trend and trade around it accordingly.
Multiple time frame analysis follows a top-down approach when trading and allows traders to gauge the longer-term trend while spotting ideal entries on a smaller time frame chart. After deciding on the appropriate time frames to analyze, traders can then conduct technical analysis using multiple time frames to confirm or reject their trading bias.
Multiple time frame analysis, or multi-time frame analysis, is the process of viewing the same currency pair under different time frames. Usually the larger time frame is used to establish a longer-term trend, while a shorter time frame is used to spot ideal entries into the market.
HOW TO IDENTIFY THE BEST FOREX TIME FRAME?
Many traders, new and experienced, want to know how to identify the best time frame to trade forex. In general, traders should select a time frame in accordance with:
the amount of time available to trade per day
the most commonly used time frame utilized to identify trade set ups.
For example, day traders typically have the whole day to monitor charts and therefore, can trade with really small time frames. These range anywhere from a one-minute, to the 15-minute, to the one-hour time frame. Day traders that identify their trade set ups on the one-hour time frame can then zoom into the 15-minute time frame to spot ideal market entries.
Multiple time frame analysis usually produces high win rate, guaranteeing very limited risk.
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Get ahead of the Game of Crypto with Dow TheoryWelcome to @TradingView , this is @Vestinda! We're excited to share with you our insights on the Dow Jones Theory and how it can benefit cryptocurrency traders.
Dow Theory, also known as Dow Jones Theory, is a trading strategy developed by Charles Dow in the late 1800s.
Charles Dow did not write any books during his lifetime, but he did co-found The Wall Street Journal and the Dow Jones & Company. He also wrote many editorials for The Wall Street Journal. Here is a quote from one of his editorials that is particularly insightful:
"The successful investor is usually an individual who is inherently interested in business problems."
Dow theory continues to dominate and is regarded as one of the most sophisticated contemporary studies on technical analysis even after 100 years.
What exactly is Dow Theory?
Charles H. Dow compared the stock market to the tides of the ocean in the Wall Street Journal on January 31, 1901.
"A person watching the tide come in and wanting to know the exact location of the high tide places a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves do not come up to it and finally recedes enough to show that the tide has turned." This method is effective for observing and predicting the flood tide of the stock market."
Dow believed that the current state of the stock market could be used to analyse the current state of the economy.
The stock market can provide valuable measures for understanding the reasons for high and low trends in the economy or individual stocks.
How Does the Dow Theory Work?
The Dow Theory is based on several fundamental tenets, which are outlined below:
1. The Averages Reflect Everything:
The market price takes into account every known or unknown factor that may impact both supply and demand. According to this observation, the market reflects all available information, even information that is not in the public domain. However, natural disasters such as droughts, cyclones, floods, or earthquakes cannot be considered.
Major Geopolitical Events are Already Priced In:
All significant geopolitical events, trade wars, domestic policies, elections, GDP growth, changes in interest rates, earning projections, or expectations are already priced in the market.
Unexpected Events Affect Short-Term Trends:
While unexpected events may occur, they usually only affect short-term trends, and the primary trend remains unaffected.
Overall, the Dow Theory emphasises the importance of analysing the primary trend of the market and understanding that all available information is already reflected in the market price.
2. The Market Has Three Trends:
The primary trend:
It can be as long as one year to several years and is the ‘main movement’ of the market. These movements are typically referred to as bull and bear markets. This primary uptrend is called as bullish on the other hand primary downtrend can be considered as bearish trends.
The reality of the situation is that nobody knows where and when the primary uptrend or downtrend will end.
As you can see in the image above when a stock is moving in primary uptrend it makes new high followed by few lows not lower than the previous lows.
Similarly the same patterns follows when it is in primary downtrend.
The objective of Dow Theory is to utilize what we do know, not to make chaotic guess about what we don’t know. Through a set of guidelines from Dow Theory one can measure to identify the primary trend and stay with it.
The intermediate trend or secondary trend:
This trend can last between 3 weeks to several months. Secondary movements are reactionary in nature, think of them as corrections during bull market, or rallies & recoveries in the bear market.
In a bull market, a secondary trend is considered a correction. In a bear market, secondary trend are called reaction rallies.
So suppose if a stock during its primary uptrend made a high, it will retrace back to some points to make a low (known as intermediate trend or correction).
Likewise during an primary downtrend, a stock can make a high after falling for several months or years(known as bear market rallies).
The minor trend or daily fluctuations:
This trend is least reliable which can be lasting from several days to few hours. Dow theory suggests not to put much attention to these trends. As a Long-term investor it is just the part of corrections in secondary uptrend or downtrend rally.
This are just daily fluctuations happening in market on day to day basis. It constitutes of noise in market and perhaps be subject to manipulation.
Out of the three trends mentioned only primary and secondary trends are trustworthy. However, the study of daily price action can add valuable insight, if you look in context of the larger picture.
So when you are looking for daily price action of several days, or weeks try to evaluate bigger structure getting formed. By putting enough attention one can certainly benefit in short term rallies.
A few pieces of a structure are meaningless, yet at the same time, they are essential to complete the entire picture.
3.Major Trends Have Three Phases:
Dow significantly paid attention to the primary trends (major) in which he spotted three phases. These are Accumulation phase, Public participation phase and Distribution phase.
These phases are cyclic in nature and repeats over the time.
A) Accumulation phase:
This phase occurs when the market is in bearish trend, sentiments are negative with no hope for any upcoming uptrend. For example as we saw in Indian share market a steep low in mid cap stocks, making new lows every other day.
Most of the investors see them stay in this trend for unknown time period. However, this is the time when big investors, huge fund houses, institutional investors start accumulating them gradually.
This is known as smart money keeping their view for long term investment. Although you would see sellers in market still selling, they find the buyers easily.
B) Public participation phase:
At this phase the market have already absorbed the negativity with ‘smart money’ getting invested. This is the second stage of a primary bull market and is usually sees the largest advance in prices.
During this phase majority of public(retailers) also thinks to join in as the price is rapidly advancing. However most of them are left behind due to speed in rallies as well as the averages start heading higher.
If you are also a trader or investor you might have this experience and a regret of not able to participate with rally. It is a period followed by improved business conditions and increased valuations in stocks.
C) Distribution phase:
The third stage is the excess phase which eventually be turned to distribution phase. During the third and final stage, the public (retailers) gets fully involved in the market, as they get mesmerized by the bull market rally.
Some of them who felt left will still try to look for valuations and want to be part of the rally.
But this is the time when ‘smart money’ starts liquidating shares on every high. Whereas public will try to buy at this level absorbing all liquidating (sell-off) volumes made by big investors.
On contrary in the distribution phase, whenever the prices attempt to go higher, the smart money off loads their holdings.
This is the beginning of bear market, where sentiments will start turning negative, you will see more and more companies filing bankruptcy, change in economic growth etc.
During bear market the level of frustration rises among retail investors as they start loosing all hopes.
4.The Averages Must Confirm Each Other:
Dow used to say that unless both Industrial and Rail(transportation) Averages exceed a previous peak, there is no confirmation or continuation of a bull market.
Both the averages did not have to move simultaneously, but the quicker one followed another – the stronger the confirmation.
To put it differently, observe the image above, as you can see both the averages are in bull market, trending upward from Point A to C.
5. Volume Must Confirm the Trend:
Volume is a tool to know how many shares have been bought and sold in a given period of time. It helps in analysing the trends and patterns.
Now according to Dow theory, a stock must be in uptrend with high volume and low in corrections.
Volumes may not be an attractive piece of information but you should try to combine the volume data with resistance and support levels to get a clear picture.
6. Trend Is expected to Be Continued Until Definite Signals of Its Reversal:
Quite similar to Newton’s first law of motion which states that an object will remain at rest or in uniform motion in a straight line unless acted upon by an external force.
In simple words an object will remain in their state of motion unless a external force acts to change the motion.
Likewise, the market will continue to move in a primary direction until a force, such as a change in business conditions, is strong enough to change the direction of this primary move. You can also see the signals for reversals when a trend is about to change.
7.Signals and Identification of Trends:
One of the major challenges faced while implementing Dow theory is the accurate identification of trend reversals. Remember, if you are following the dow theory one should be not only looking for overall market direction, but also the definite reversal signals.
One of the main skill used to identify trend reversals in Dow theory is peak and trough or high and low analysis. A peak is defined as the highest price of a market movement, while a trough is seen as the lowest price of a market movement.
Dow theory suggests that the market doesn’t move in a straight line but from highs (peaks) to lows (troughs), with the overall moves of the market trending in a direction.
An upward trend in Dow theory is a series of successively higher peaks and higher troughs. A downward trend is a series of successively lower peaks and lower troughs.
8. Manipulation In the Market:
According to Charles dow the manipulation of the primary trend is not possible. where as Intraday, or day to day trading and perhaps even the secondary movements could be vulnerable to manipulation.
These short movements, from a few hours to a few weeks, could be subject to manipulation by large institutions, speculators, breaking news or rumors.
There is possibility that speculators, specialists or anyone else involved in the markets could manipulate the prices in short run.
Individual shares could be manipulated for example the security rise up and then falls back and continues the primary trend. With this in mind one need to be aware of the situations while trading and investing.
However, it would be next to impossible to manipulate the market as a whole. The market is simply too big for any kind of manipulation to occur.
Why Dow Theory Is Not Infallible?
Dow Theory is not a sure-fire means of beating the market hence it is not something which is infallible or fault-less. Some of the criticism received about Dow Theory is that it is really not a theory.
Charles Dow's principles and theories, while developed for the stock market, can still be applied to crypto investing.
Here are a few ways his knowledge can be used:
Follow the trend: Dow's first principle is that the market moves in trends. In crypto investing, you can identify trends by looking at price charts and technical analysis. If the price of a particular cryptocurrency is in an uptrend, it may be a good time to consider buying. If it's in a downtrend, you may want to consider selling or waiting for a better entry point.
Consider market breadth: Dow's second principle is that the market's movements should be confirmed by market breadth. This means looking beyond just the price of one cryptocurrency and examining the overall health of the market. For example, if a particular cryptocurrency is in an uptrend but the majority of other cryptocurrencies are in a downtrend, it may not be a sustainable trend.
Use volume as a confirmation: Dow's third principle is that volume should confirm the trend. In crypto investing, volume can provide insight into the strength of a trend. For example, if the price of a cryptocurrency is increasing with high volume, it may indicate a strong uptrend. On the other hand, if the price is increasing with low volume, it may not be a sustainable trend.
Be aware of market cycles: Dow's fourth principle is that the market moves in cycles. This means that there will be periods of growth and periods of decline. In crypto investing, it's important to be aware of these cycles and adjust your strategy accordingly. For example, during a bull market, you may want to focus on buying and holding, while during a bear market, you may want to consider shorting or staying on the sidelines.
Overall, while the crypto market is different from the stock market, many of Dow's principles can still be applied to crypto investing to help you make more informed decisions.
In conclusion, Dow Theory, developed by Charles Dow in the late 1800s, remains one of the most respected theories in financial market history.
The theory's primary tenets are based on the idea that the stock market reflects all available information, and there are three trends in the market: primary, intermediate, and minor.
The primary trend is the most important and can last several years, while the intermediate trend and minor trend are reactionary in nature.
Dow Theory provides an excellent framework for traders and investors to evaluate the current state of the economy, and it has remained relevant even after 100 years. Whether you are an intraday trader, a short-term trader, or a long-term investor, the knowledge of Dow Theory will undoubtedly help you develop various strategies for your investments.
So, in conclusion, Dow Theory is a respectful theory that has stood the test of time and continues to be an essential tool for anyone who trades or invests in the financial and crypto market.
Unleash Your Inner Trader — Read Story About Bulls and Bears That Will Change Your Mindset!
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Learn What is Confirmation Bias | Trading Psychology 🧠
In this educational article, we will discuss one of the most common cognitive errors of newbie traders - a confirmation bias.
In order to better understand that term, I want to start with the example:
Let's say that after doing some research, you are highly convinced that Bitcoin is bullish and that it is a decent investment.
You decide to buy that from 50.000 level, expecting the exponential growth.
Instead of growing, however, the market starts falling rapidly.
Rather than closing your position in loss, you decide to do a new research and execute the analysis, you start looking for the proof of your pre-existing beliefs. You completely neglect the voices of Bitcoin sceptics and ignore bearish clues on the price chart.
You consider only the facts that support a bullish outlook, not letting you accept the other point of view.
You become a victim of a confirmation bias.
Unfortunately, such a psychological trap frequently prevents a closing of a trading position in time, leading to substantial losses.
Confirmation bias is a common psychological error that makes a subject overvalue the information that upholds his existing beliefs and undervalue the opposing one.
Here are the most common symptoms of that trap:
1️⃣One is neglecting the objective facts.
2️⃣One is interpreting information in a way to support the existing beliefs.
3️⃣One is considering only the facts that conform with his point of view.
4️⃣One is completely ignoring the information that challenges his beliefs.
The only way to beat a confirmation bias in trading, is to learn to analyze the market from sellers' and from buyers' perspective. Your task is to compare the view of the 2 sides, and pick the one that is stronger, holding in mind the fact that everything can change.
You should always remember of the changing nature of financial markets and be ready to always reassess your views.
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The Story Behind Bulls and BearsHello @TradingView family , this is @Vestinda, and let's have some fun and enjoy the markets together.
Vestinda is driven to offer our knowledge in developing winning strategies and make traders tasks easier.
This is The Story About Bulls and Bears. Bulls can lift things up, Bears can eat you for lunch.
Who Are The "Bulls" And The "Bears" In The Market
The terms "bulls" and "bears" are included in the trader's slang as the main categories of players in the market. Understanding the technique of the game will help you to understand the intricacies of how the market works.
"Bulls" are buying investors. Like their totem, they lift the enemy up on the horns. "Bulls" buy, wait for the rising rate and sell at a higher price. They dream of a prosperous economy: the lower the unemployment rate, the higher the GDP, the faster markets grow. Warren Buffett - the most famous representative of the bulls .
The Bears play on the opposite side. They earn on the depreciation, in a fading economy. Their ideal world is high unemployment, low GDP and large-scale crises.
It all starts long before the collapse of the market: the “bears” buy on credit and immediately resell, artificially creating a drop in prices. After the price becomes cheaper, they are purchased again, but at a lower price, and the debt is repaid. The difference between the first and second purchases is the profit of the bears.
💲 How Bulls Make Money On The Market 💲
"Bulls" buy, when they are sure that the market will go up. Examples of situations where this is possible:
🟣 the shareholder enterprise has published a financial report, and the figures exceeded forecasts;
🟣 the new reform allows to pay less taxes, thereby increasing profits;
🟣 the company has introduced a new product, which, according to analysts, will be in great demand;
🟣 the level of well-being, salary and solvency of the population are growing, which has a beneficial effect on the company's profit.
Bullish trades take time – you have to wait to make money. "Bears" are distinguished by shorter trades and the prospect of quick earnings.
A red flag for the bulls is an increase in prices by 20% from the lows and the presence of strong prerequisites for further growth. The most favorable moment comes when there are more buyers than sellers on the market.
📍 There Are 4 Key Phases Of A Bull Market:📍
1️⃣ "bearish" trends are gradually fading;
2️⃣ the backdrop of negative news has ended, but there is no confidence in future growth yet, the market is moving sideways, the growth of prices alternates with a fall;
3️⃣ the economy is going up, volatility is decreasing, investors are optimistic;
4️⃣ the peak of growth, traders make easy profits.
The market trends are cyclical, a bull market becomes overbought over time and inevitably turns into a bear market. The move up can be uneven, with periods of pullbacks and corrections, that provide an opportunity to profit on counter-trend trades.
As a rule, prices didn't rise as quickly and unpredictably as they fall. Therefore, transactions in the "bullish" market are characterized by a longer period, the so-called "long positions". Both own and borrowed money, shares and other assets, which are returned after closing, act as collateral.
Long positions are considered more stable, predictable and calm. Therefore the majority of market participants are "bulls" (or consider themselves so). In an uptrend, it's easy to choose an investment because almost everything goes up. However, the "bulls" need to be careful and remember, that there is no eternal growth, the market can be oversaturated at any moment, turning in the opposite direction. It is important for conservative traders to exit the game on time.
💲 How Bears Make Money On The Market 💲
The bears enter the arena during a downturn in the economy and prices. Their tactic is to sell at the beginning of a downtrend and then buy at the end of a downtrend. If they guess the high and low points of the bear market, they will receive the maximum margin.
Examples of situations, that will play into the hands of this category of traders:
🟣 there were large-scale economic crises, force majeure situations, natural disasters, epidemics, wars;
🟣 the shareholder enterprise found itself in the center of a scandal or changed its general director;
🟣 sales of the new product failed.
A "bear" market comes into its own, when prices fall by 20% from the maximum.
There are 4 main stages of the trend:
1️⃣ the bull market is oversaturated and goes into overbought phase;
2️⃣ against the backdrop of negative sentiment, prices fall sharply, and trading activity decreases, panic arises on the market;
3️⃣ prices fell quite strongly, but continue to gradually decline, at this time “bears” enter the market en masse;
4️⃣ seduced by cheaper prices, conservative investors become more active, due to which the market gradually turns in the opposite direction.
Thus, the "bear" market is gradually replaced by a "bullish" one.
Can a Bull become a Bear?
In fact, these divisions are rather arbitrary, they were created by exchange slang. Officially, in the market, you do not need to indicate yourself in which category you belong, so no need to be a bull or a bear all your life.
Traders' strategies are good because they can be adapted or completely changed to specific conditions on the exchange. It's not always possible to sell shares at the maximum or buy at the minimum price, so you have to adjust to the average attitude. Therefore, a “bull” can become a “bear”, just like a “bear” can become a “bull”.
Conclusion: What are Bulls and Bears in Trading?
Bulls and Bears are two sides of the stock market. Bulls are traders who believe that the stock prices will go up, while bears are traders who think that the stock prices will go down. In trading, these two forces are constantly at work, and understanding their roles can help you make better decisions when it comes to investing. Bulls and Bears play an important role in trading as they provide insight on the direction of a particular security or market trend. By understanding their roles in trading, investors can more accurately predict future price movements and make more profitable trades.
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Learning Plan: 13 Essential Topics to Study in Trading
Hey traders,
I receive dozens of questions each and every day concerning the topics to study to become an expert in technical analysis .
Here I have collected the main subjects that, in my view, are essential for successful trading.
*the order of the topics is spontaneous and there is no logical sequence
1️⃣ - Candlestick patterns
To me, candlesticks are very important for understanding market behavior. A single wick quite often can tell you a story.
Mastering different candle stick patterns, you will be impressed by how much data and information you may derive from analyzing them.
2️⃣ - Price action patterns
At first glance price chart is complete chaos.
The market looks irrational and it feels like there is no way to read it.
Price action patterns are the language of the market.
With them, the price fluctuations start to make sense.
3️⃣ - Support & resistance
All my predictions, all my trades & signals are always based on support & resistance levels.
These are the levels that make the market change its direction, they influence the market so much, therefore you should learn to identify them and constantly hold them on focus.
4️⃣ - Supply & demand zones
The only difference between support & resistance and supply & demand zones is the fact that the first ones are represented as levels while the second ones are represented as the zones.
The identification of these zones is very important for proper market analysis.
5️⃣ - Key levels
Key levels are the strongest supports and resistances.
Of course, spotting various supports and resistances on the chart,
we can not say that they all are equal in their significance.
There is a strong (however subjective) hierarchy of them.
The most significant are called key levels and from them, the most significant moves are always expected.
6️⃣ - Trend analysis
When I teach my students how to analyze the price chart,
I always start with a trend analysis topic.
Knowing where exactly the market is going,
having specific and objective rules for the trend identification
are necessary for successful trading.
7️⃣ - Top-Down analysis
Multi-time frame analysis is my passion.
I am constantly combining the signals & observations from different time frames to make my trading decision and predict future market moves.
It proved to be a very efficient method of trading various markets.
8️⃣ - Financial instruments
Though to many it may sound obvious, in practice I know that a lot of people are struggling with a simple question "What to trade?".
You must learn to properly build your watchlist and you should have strong reasoning behind the selection of each unite that is inside.
9️⃣ - Trend following trading
As we know, the trend is our friend. And even though the phrase itself is very simple and straightforward, it takes so much effort and time to learn to follow the trend properly.
1️⃣0️⃣ - Counter trend trading
Occasionally the market reverses. Properly identifying early reversal signs and then catching a sharp counter-trend move, huge profits can be made.
Even though such a style of trading is considered to be extremely risky, being applied properly will generate a lot of cash.
1️⃣1️⃣ - Risk management
Losses are inevitable.
They are part of the game and we can do nothing about that.
The only thing that we can do, however, is to control the losses.
Calculating the risk for every single transaction is essential to avoid a margin call.
1️⃣2️⃣ - Leverage trading
Leverage selection, margin are the things that are tightly connected with risk management topic.
These are the terms that you must know how to operate with.
1️⃣3️⃣ - Trading psychology
Playing with real money, occasionally losing significant portions of your trading account can be a tough game.
It takes time to build a strong psyche to deal with the irrationality of the market.
Which topic to start with?
Pick any, learn it, study it.
They all are equally important so at the end of the day you need to cover them all in order to become successful.
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
Eurcad (sell projection base on top down analysis)My analysis is based on tradeline breakout and retest. Price made rejections three times @1.46365. The third rejection pull down massively and break the tradeline @1.44087. Price retest the trendline with a bearish flag, Retracing @78 fib retracement level. Currently form a double top @1.45495.
How to allocate your funds for profit?
There are no wasted paths in life. All your efforts now either earn experience, knowledge, or wealth. As the Chinese saying goes, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket." This is because if you accidentally drop the basket, all the eggs will break. This principle applies to investment markets as well. It is recommended to avoid concentrating all funds into one type of investment, as it could lead to uncontrollable risk.
So, how can we allocate our funds sensibly?
Here are three investment types to consider:
Cryptocurrencies
After the emergence of countless "get-rich-quick" stories in the cryptocurrency market, many people have flocked to invest. However, the reality is that the market is merciless and risky. Only those who are strategic and opportunistic can make a profit. It is recommended to invest 10% of your funds into the market for a coin with a lower price point, and hold it for the long-term. If the value increases, your assets will expand infinitely. If it fails, you won't lose everything.
Forex Market
To participate in the forex market, choose currency pairs with lower liquidity, such as EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. When these products show good buying opportunities, it is recommended to invest 50% of your funds into the market. The fluctuation of currency pairs is relatively small, making it a stable option for long-term trading. However, it requires a certain amount of capital accumulation to see profits.
Futures Market
In this market, let's focus on XAUUSD. This product has storage value internationally, making it suitable for trading. However, due to its sensitivity to news and geopolitical events, it can experience severe fluctuations. It is recommended to invest 20% of your funds into the market for short-term operations. Trading once or twice a day to gain short-term profits is the suggested approach.
The remaining 20% of your funds can be used for your daily expenses. Trading is not gambling. It is important to learn how to plan within your capabilities, manage your finances wisely, and make trading easier.
I have extensive knowledge in cryptocurrencies, forex, stocks, gold, and crude oil futures products. I will continue to update my daily operation strategies. Thank you for your attention and likes. If you have any questions, please feel free to leave a message. I will provide the most reliable advice to help you.
The Simpliest Math Behind Every Succesful TraderWhat exactly is risk management?
The ability to control your losses so that you do not lose all of your equity is referred to as risk management. This is a system that may be applied to everything that involves probabilities: trading, poker, blackjack, sports betting, and so on.
Many inexperienced traders underestimate the significance of risk management or don't understand the basics when it comes to risk management.
Would you risk $5,000 on every trade if you had a $10,000 trading account? Probably not. Because it only takes two consecutive losses in order to lose everything.
🧠 Now, let's imagine a thought experiment, in wich 🤩Alex and 🤨Peter are both traders with $10,000 in their accounts. Alex is a high-risk trader who puts $2500 risk on every trade. Peter is a cautious trader who puts $100 risk on every trade. Both apply a trading strategy that has a 50% success rate with an average risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2.
For good example, let's imagine the next 8 trades had the following results:
4 losing trades in a row
4 winning trades in a row
Here is the result for Alex: -$2,500, -$2,500, -$2,500, -$2,500 = -$10,000 Loss of the total account 😭😭😭😭
Here is the result for Peter: -$100, -$100, -$100, -$100, +$200, +$200, +$200, +$200 = +$800 Profits. 🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆
Can you tell the difference? See how risk management show the difference between being a profitable or losing trader. Peter managed to recover losing trades, and get into good profits after 8 trades. Alex didn't survive 4 trades...
🚨 You might have the finest trading strategy in the world, but if you don't manage how much you lose, you'll lose it all. It's only a matter of probability and time.
However, following this basic example will assist you to make your trading more profitable. Simply give it a shot.
Kind regards
Artem Crypto
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Take a look at my other Educational ideas below:
Learn How Support Becomes Resistance
Support and resistance levels are important points in time where the forces of supply and demand meet. These support and resistance levels are seen by technical analysts as crucial when determining market psychology and supply and demand.
Support is the level at which demand is strong enough to stop the asset from falling any further.
Resistance is the level at which supply is strong enough to stop the asset from moving higher.
The psychology behind support and resistance.
First let’s assume there are buyers who’ve been buying a stock close to a support area. Let’s say that support level is $50. They buy some stock at $50 and now it moves up and away from that level to $55. The buyers want to buy more stock at $50, but not $55. They decide if the price moves back down to $50, they will buy more. They’re creating demand at the $50 level.
Let’s take another group of investors. They were thinking about buying the stock at $50 but never did before. Now the stock is at $55 and they regret not buying it. If it gets to $50 again, they will not make the same mistake and they will buy the stock. This creates potential demand.
The third group bought the stock below $50; let’s say they bought it at $40. When the stock got to $50, they sold their stock, only to watch it go to $55. Now they want to buy it back at the same price they sold it, $50. They’ve changed their sentiment from sellers to buyers. This creates more demand.
A key concept of technical analysis is that when a resistance or support level is broken, its role is reversed. If the price falls below a support level, that level will become resistance. If the price rises above a resistance level, it will often become support. As the price moves past a level of support or resistance, it is thought that supply and demand has shifted, causing the breached level to reverse its role.
Thanks for reading bro, you are the best☺️
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