Your Best Trading Signal Formula Revealed (Forex, Gold)
If you are looking for a way to increase the accuracy of your trades, I prepared for you a simple yet powerful checklist that you can apply to validate your trades.
✔️ - The trades fit my trading plan
When you are planning to open a trade, make sure that it is strictly based on your rules and your entry reasons match your trading plan.
For example, imagine you found some good reasons to buy USDJPY pair, and you decide to open a long trade. However, checking your trading plan, you have an important rule there - the market should strictly lie on a key level.
The current market conditions do not fit your trading plan, so you skip that trade.
✔️ - The trade is in the direction with the trend
That condition is mainly addressed to the newbie traders.
Trading against the trend is much more complicated and riskier than trend-following trading, for that reason, I always recommend my students sticking with the trend.
Even though USDCHF formed a cute double bottom pattern after a strong bearish trend, and it is appealing to buy the oversold market, it is better to skip that trade because it is the position against the current trend.
✔️ - The trade has stop loss and target level
Know in advance where will be your goal for the trade and where you will close the position in a loss.
If you think that it is a good idea to buy gold now, but you have no clue how far it will go and where can be the target, do not take such a trade.
You should know your tp/sl before you open the trade.
✔️ - The trade has a good risk to reward ratio
Planning the trade, your potential reward should outweigh the potential risks. And of course, there are always the speculations about the optimal risk to reward ratio, however, try to have at least 1.3 R/R ratio.
Planning a long trade on EURNZD with a safe stop loss being below the current support and target - the local high, you can see that you get a negative r/r ratio, meaning that the potential risk is bigger than the potential reward. Such a trade is better to skip.
✔️ - I am ok with losing this trade if the market goes against me
Remember that even the best trading setups may occasionally fail. You should always be prepared for losses, and always keep in mind that 100% winning setups do not exist.
If you are not ready to lose, do not even open the position then.
✔️ - There are no important news events ahead
That rule is again primarily addressed to newbies because ahead and during the important news releases we have sudden volatility spikes.
Planning the trade, check the economic calendar, filtering top important news.
If important fundamentals are expected in the coming hours, it's better to wait until the news release first.
Taking a long trade on Gold, you should check the fundamentals first. Only after you confirm, that there are no fundamentals coming soon, you can open the position.
What I like about that checklist is that it is very simple, but you can use it whether you are a complete newbie or an experienced trader.
Try it and let me know if it helps you to improve your trading performance.
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Tradingforbeginners
HOW FOREX BROKERS MANIPULATE YOU TRADING? Real Example
Last month, I spotted a nice trading position on NZDCAD forex pair.
I shared that with my TradingView subscribers immediately after I placed the trade.
Though, the price moved exactly as it was predicted, the half of the members did not make any penny from this signal, while another half made a nice profit.
It happened because of one rare thing that I absolutely hate in trading.
Learn about a major frustration and market manipulation in trading, that no one will tell you about.
Here is the trading position that I spotted.
It was a classic price action trading setup based on a double top pattern.
Trade was taken on a retest of a broken neckline aiming at the closest strong support and stop loss lying about the tops.
Though, initially, the market started to fall rapidly. But it reversed, not being able to reach the target.
Watching that bullish rally resumes, I send the signal to my students to close the trade on entry, and I also did that personally.
I felt myself quite sad that I did not mange cash out from that trade.
Later on in the evening, surprisingly, I started to receive multiple thank you messages from my members that they made a good profit with that signal.
How could it be?
I decided to anonymously ask the members, how did they close the trade.
More than half of the members replied that the trade reached take profit.
Can it be possible? My TP was not reached and it was still quite far from the lowest low.
Now, examine the trading setup on NZDCAD on charts of different popular forex brokers.
On these 6 charts, you can see NZDCAD pair on OANDA, CAPITALCOM, IC MARKETS, ICE, FXCM, FOREX.COM brokers.
While in half of the instances TP was not reached, in other half, TP was reached and the price went even lower.
Why it happened?
There are the rare situations in Forex trading, when the price action on one broker can be very different from another.
It happens because different brokers have different liquidity providers, spreads, order execution methods and so on.
That is why the selection of a good broker is so vital in trading.
If you use TradingView for chart analysis, make sure that you watch all the instruments of one broker.
Moreover, once you start trading your strategy, always check how the price acted with different broker quotes.
If you will see a lot of instances that your tp is not hit, while on another broker it would, it will be a signal for you to change the broker.
When I started learning trading, no one told be that important nuance of Forex trading.
But knowing that is a very significant step in your trading journey.
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3 Best Trading Opportunities to Maximize Profit Potential
Hey traders,
In the today's article, we will discuss 3 types of incredibly accurate setups that you can apply for trading financial markets.
1. Trend Line Breakout and Retest
The first setup is a classic trend line breakout.
Please, note that such a setup will be accurate if the trend line is based on at least 3 consequent bullish or bearish moves.
If the market bounces from a trend line, it is a vertical support.
If the market drops from a trend line, it is a vertical resistance.
The breakout of the trend line - vertical support is a candle close below that. After a breakout, it turns into a safe point to sell the market from.
The breakout of the trend line - vertical resistance is a candle close above that. After a breakout, it turns into a safe point to buy the market from.
Take a look at the example. On GBPJPY, the market was growing steadily, respecting a rising trend line that was a vertical support.
A candle close below that confirmed its bearish violation.
It turned into a vertical resistance .
Its retest was a perfect point to sell the market from.
2. Horizontal Structure Breakout and Retest
The second setup is a breakout of a horizontal key level.
The breakout of a horizontal support and a candle close below that is a strong bearish signal. After a breakout, a support turns into a resistance.
Its retest is a safe point to sell the market from.
The breakout of a horizontal resistance and a candle close above that is a strong bullish signal. After a breakout, a resistance turns into a support.
Its retest if a safe point to buy the market from.
Here is the example. WTI Crude Oil broke a key daily structure resistance. A candle close above confirmed the violation.
After a breakout, the broken resistance turned into a support.
Its test was a perfect point to buy the market from.
3. Buying / Selling the Market After Pullbacks
The third option is to trade the market after pullbacks.
However, remember that the market should be strictly in a trend .
In a bullish trend, the market corrects itself after it sets new higher highs. The higher lows usually respect the rising trend lines.
Buying the market from such a trend line, you open a safe trend-following trade.
In a bearish trend, after the price sets lower lows, the correctional movements initiate. The lower highs quite often respect the falling trend lines.
Selling the market from such a trend line, you open a safe trend-following trade.
On the chart above, we can see EURAUD pair trading in a bullish trend.
After the price sets new highs, it retraces to a rising trend line.
Once the trend line is reached, trend-following movements initiate.
What I like about these 3 setups is the fact that they work on every market and on every time frame. So no matter what you trade and what is your trading style, you can apply them for making nice profits.
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Exploring the Main Components of a Powerful Trading Journal
In one of the previous posts, we discussed the significance of a trading journal. In the today's article, I will share with you the key elements of a trading journal of a professional trader.
And first, a quick reminder that a trading journal is essential for your trading success. No matter on which level you are at the moment, you should always keep track of your results.
Let's go through the list of the things that you should include in your journal.
1 - Trading Instrument
The symbol where the order is executed.
You need that in order to analyze the performance of trading a particular instrument.
2 - Date
The date of the opening of the position. Some traders also include the exact time of the execution.
3 - Risk
Percentage of the account balance at risk.
Even though some traders track the lot of sizes instead, I do believe that the percentage data is more important and may give more insights.
4 - Entry Reason
The set of conditions that were met to open the trade.
In that section, I recommend to note as much data as possible.
It will be applied in future for the identification of the weaknesses of your strategy.
5 - Risk Reward Ratio
The expected returns in relation to potential risks.
6 - Results
Gain or loss in percentage.
And again, some traders track the pip value of the gain, however,
in my view, the percentage points are more relevant for studying the statistics.
Here is the example of the trade on Gold:
Here is how exactly you should journal the following trade:
Instrumet: Gold (XAUUSD)
Date: 03.07.2023
Risk: 1%
Entry Reason: H&S Pattern Formation,
Neckline Breakout & Retest
R/R Ratio: 1.77
Results: +1.77%
Of course, depending on your trading strategy and your personal goals, some other elements can be added. However, the list that I propose is the absolute minimum that you should track.
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3 Best Entry Points For Swing Trading (Forex, Gold)
What is the best entry point for swing trading?
You will learn 3 safest places/zones to buy or sell the market from, best swing trading time frame, and the most accurate swing trading setups.
Best Entry 1
Swing Trading After a Confirmed Trend Reversal
It can be a bearish trend violation and a start of a new bullish trend.
Look at a price action on WTI Crude Oil on a daily.
The market violated a bearish trend and started to trade in a new bullish trend, confirming the reversal.
In such a case, your best entry will be the closest daily support.
Alternatively, it can be a bullish trend violation and an initiation of a new bearish trend.
USDCAD was in an uptrend, steadily growing within a parallel channel.
Its violation confirmed the change of sentiment and start of a downtrend.
In this situation, your safest entries will be from the closest daily resistance.
Best Entry 2
Swing Trading with the Trend After Pullback
In a bullish trend, you should wait for
a completion of a bullish movement,
wait for a pullback
swing buy the market after it completes.
AUDCAD is in a rising trend.
A pullback tends to complete on a key support.
That will be your zone for buying.
Otherwise, in a bearish trend, you should let the price:
finish a bearish impulse
start a correctional movement
sell the market after the correction ends.
USDCHF was in downturn and updated the low. A local bullish movement started then.
It usually completes after a test of a key resistance. That will be the area where you should look for swing selling.
Best Entry 3
Swing Trading After Key Level Breakout
Bearish violation of a key daily support is a perfect signal to sell.
It is an important sign of strength of the sellers and a strong indication that the price will continue falling.
NZDUSD broke and closed below a key daily support cluster. After a breakout, it turns into a potentially strong resistance.
For us, the best entry is a retest of a broken structure.
Bullish breakout of a key daily resistance is a reliable signal to buy.
After a violation of a horizontal resistance, it became a support on USDCHF Forex pair on a daily.
Your perfect entry for swing buying is its retest .
The entry zones that we discussed will provide the safest trading opportunities.
Learn to combine that with your trading strategy, it will help you to dramatically increase the profitability of your swing trading.
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How to Find Best Supply and Demand Zones/Areas in Forex & Gold
In this article, I will show you the strongest supply and demand zones.
These zones are called confluence zones.
I will teach you to identify these areas properly and explain how to apply it in Forex and Gold trading.
Let's start with a short but important theory.
In technical analysis, there are 2 types of supports and resistances.
Horizontal structures are supports and resistance that are based on horizontal key levels.
Vertical structures are supports and resistance that are based on trend lines.
A confluence supply or demand zone, will be the area of the intersection between a horizontal and vertical structures.
Look at GBPJPY pair. I underlined a significant horizontal support and a rising trend line - a vertical support.
We see a clear crossing of both structures.
The trend line and a horizontal support will compose a narrow, contracting area. It will be a confluence demand zone.
Within, with a high probability, a high volume of buying orders will concentrate, and a strong bullish movement will initiate after its test.
Above is one more example of a powerful demand zone.
It was spotted on a Gold chart.
Now let's discuss the supply zone.
There are 2 strong structures on GBPNZD: a vertical resistance - a falling trend line and a horizontal resistance.
These 2 resistances will constitute a confluence supply zone.
That is a powerful resistance cluster that will concentrate the selling orders. Chances will be high to see a strong bearish movement from that.
There is a strong supply zone on CHFJPY that is based on the intersection of a wide horizontal resistance and a falling trend line.
Supply and demand zones that we discussed are very significant. Very often, strong bullish and bearish waves will initiate from these clusters.
Your ability to recognize these zones will help you to make accurate predictions and identify a safe point to open a trading position from
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Harsh Truth About Forex & Gold Trading: In Books VS In Reality
Most traders start their trading journey by studying theory first, reading books or taking video courses before putting these newfound skills into practice. But once they start trading on a real market, they quickly realize that things are not as straightforward as the books make them out to be.
In this educational article, we will take a critical look at the difference between theoretical knowledge and practical experience.
📍And first of all, do not get me wrong. I am not trying to imply that trading books or courses are bad.
Theoretical knowledge is essential for successful trading, and of course the books are the best source of that.
The problem is, however, that books can be misleading . The examples in books are always tailored. When the authors are looking for the examples of the patterns, of key levels, they are looking for the ideal cases.
📍The problem becomes even worse, when one start studying the trade examples in books. And of course, the authors choose the brilliant winning trades with huge take profits and tiny stop losses.
I guess you saw these pictures of "sniper" entry trades with 5/1 R/R.
The inexperienced trader may start thinking that the markets are perfect and act in total accordance with the books.
That all the trades that he will take will bring tremendous profits.
That the identified patterns will work exactly as it was described.
📍The harsh truth is that books and courses are simply the compositions of different examples, cases and market situations.
In reality, each and every trading setup is unique .
The reaction of the price to the same pattern will be always different .
Please, realize the fact that books are only good for acquiring the knowledge. But in order to survive on financial markets, you need the experience . And the experience will be gained only after studying thousands of real market examples in real time.
📍Here is the example of a double top pattern that we were trading with my students on AUDJPY.
In books, double tops are always perfect . Once the market breaks the neckline, the price retests that and then quickly drops.
So the one can set a tiny stop loss and a big take profit.
However, after a retest of a broken neckline, AUDJPY bounced and the market maker was stop hunting the newbies. Our stop loss was way above the head, and we managed to survive.
Even though the pattern triggered a bearish movement, the reaction of the market was far from perfect.
Be prepared, that the market will much different from what you see in the books.
Good luck to you!
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Weekly Market Forecast: PLATINUM Is a BUY!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th.
As the Monthly and Weekly timeframes show, this market is in a ranging consolidation. So the strategy is to buy at the lows and sell at the highs until there is a definitive breakout on either side.
With price having swept the lows of the consolidation, it makes sense price will be heading to the buyside liquidity next.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly Market Forecast: CRUDE OIL Can Go Lower!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th.
OIL is still trending to the downside, and sells are still valid.
Until we see a bullish market break of market structure, sells all day.
CPI Data news on Wednesday, so be careful trading into news day.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Learn What Will Make You Profitable in Forex & Gold Trading
What brings the consistent profits in trading?
Talking to hundreds of struggling traders from different parts of the globe, I realized that there are the common misconceptions concerning that subject.
In this educational article, we will discuss what really will make you profitable in trading.
Trading Signals
🔔The first thing that 99% of struggling traders are looking for is signals.
Why damn learn if you can simply follow the trades of a pro trader and make money?!
The truth is, however, is that in order to repeat the performance of a signal provider you have to open all your trading positions in the same exact moment he does. (And I would not even mention the fact that there will be a delay between the moment the provider opens the trade and the moment he sends you the signal)
Because the signal can be sent at a random moment, quite often it will take time for you to reach your trading terminal and open the position.
Just a 1-minute delay may dramatically change the risk to reward ration of the trade and, hence, the final result.
Expert Advisors
🤖The second thing that really attracts the struggling traders is trading robots (EA) . The systems that trade automatically and aimed to generate consistent profits.
You simply start the program and wait for the money.
The main problem with EA is the fact that it requires constant monitoring . It can stop or freeze in a random moment and may require a reboot.
Moreover, due to changing market conditions, the EA should be regularly updated. Without the updates, at some moment it may blow your account.
Trading robot is the work : trading with the robots means their constant development, monitoring and improvement. And that work requires a high level of experience: both in coding and in trading.
Technical Indicators
📈The third thing that struggling traders are seeking is the "magic" indicator. The one that will accurately identify the safe points to buy and sell. You add the indicator on the chart, and you simply wait for the signal to open the trade.
The fact is that magic indicators do not exist. Indicator is the tool that can be applied as the extra confirmation. It should be applied strictly in a combination with something else, and its proper application requires a high level of expertise in trading.
Luck in Trading
🍀The fourth thing that newbie traders seek is luck. They open the trade, and then they pray the God, Powell, Fed or someone else to move the market in their favour.
And yes, occasionally, luck will be on your side. But relying on luck on a long-term basis, you are doomed to fail.
But what will make you profitable then?
What is the secret ingredient.
Remember, that secret ingredient does not exist.
In order to become a consistently profitable traders, you should rely on 4 crucial elements: trading plan, risk management, discipline and correct mindset.
🧠What is correct mindset in trading?
It simply means setting REALISTIC goals and having REALISTIC expectations from the market and from your trading.
📝A trading plan is the set of rules and conditions that you apply for the search of a trading setup and the management of the opened position.
Trading plan will be considered to be good if it is back tested on historical data and then tested on demo account for at least 3 consequent months.
✔️In order to follow the plan consistently, you need to be disciplined . You should be prepared for losing streaks, and you should be strong enough to not break once your trading account will be in a drawdown.
💰Risk management is one of the most important elements of your trading plan. It defines your risk per trade and your set of actions in case of losses. Even the best trading strategies may fail because of poor risk management.
Combining these 4 elements, you will become a consistently profitable trader. Remember, that there is no easy way, no shortcut. Trading is a hard work to be done.
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Learn What is Higher High, Higher Low, Lower Low, Lower High
In this educational article, we will discuss the foundation of price action analysis: the concepts of highs and lows.
In order to grasp that concept, you should learn to perceive the price chart as the sequence of zigzags .
Depending on the direction of the market and the shape of these zigzags, its peaks will be called differently. There are 6 types of them that you should learn to recognize.
1️⃣ Equal Highs (EH).
The peaks of bullish moves will be called equal highs, if they perfectly respect the same level (resistance), retracing from that and not managing to break above.
Above is the example of equal highs on Gold chart on a daily.
2️⃣ Equal Lows (EL).
The peaks of bearish moves will be called equal lows, if they perfectly respect the same level (support), bouncing from that and not managing to break below.
Find perfect equal lows on USDCAD on the chart above.
3️⃣ Higher High (HH).
The peak of a bullish move will be called Higher High, if the price manages to violate the previous high after a retracement.
Look at a perfect sequence of higher highs on NZDUSD.
4️⃣ Lower Low (LL).
The peak of a bearish move will be called Lower Low, if the price manages to violate the previous low after a pullback.
Trading in a strong bearish trend, NZDCAD keeps updating lower lows on a daily.
5️⃣ Higher Low (HL).
The peak of a bearish move will be called Higher Low if, after a retracement from the high, the price manages to set a low that is higher than the previous low.
Back to the example on NZDUSD. Not only the price updates the higher highs but also the higher lows.
6️⃣ Lower High (LH).
The peak of a bullish movement will be called Lower High if, after a pullback from the low, the price sets a high that is lower than the previous high.
That's how EURJPY acted on a daily, setting 2 nice lower highs.
Why these terms are so important?
Because, firstly, you can apply them to objectively identify the market trend.
Secondly, all the price action patterns are based on a combination of these highs and lows.
You should learn these terms by heart, and you should learn to perceive the price chart as the sequence of zigzags, with a strict designation of each peak.
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Where & How to Draw Strong Support and Resistance Lines & Zones
In this article, I will teach you how to draw support and resistance.
We will discuss support and resistance lines, levels, zones.
You will learn where and how to find it properly with simply technical analysis technique that works on forex, gold or any other financial market.
First, let me note that the most reliable time frame for support and resistance analysis is the daily . The structures that you will find there will be appropriate for day trading, scalping and swing trading.
Once you open a daily time frame, you should choose a correct perspective . Because this t.f lets you see the price action even for the past couple of years.
You need to see the market movement for the last 2 months . It is more than enough to identify the recent key levels.
Above is AUDUSD on a daily. We see the price history for 2 months.
In order to identify significant supports and resistances, simply find the levels - the highs and lows that the market respected in the past and from where important movements started.
These are all such highs and lows that meet the criteria.
When I do the support/resistance analysis, I prefer to perceive it as clusters - the zones , taking into consideration the candle closes as well.
A support zone will be based on the level of the critical low and the lowest closest candle close.
A resistance zone will be based on the level of the high and
the highest closest candle close.
Following such a rule, here are the zones that I identified.
All the clusters that are identified will be applied as trading zones.
Within the supports, we look for buying opportunities.
While the resistances will be used for selling .
Depending on your trading style, and you choose a proper signal before you execute the trade.
Execute support and resistance analysis with care and attention, because it is the absolute basis of any technical analysis strategy.
With incorrect key levels identification, even the best trading strategy will fail .
I hope that the method that I showed you will help you in your trading journey.
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Learn What is Confirmation Bias | Trading Psychology Basics
In this educational article, we will discuss one of the most common cognitive errors of newbie traders - a confirmation bias.
In order to better understand that term, I want to start with the example:
Let's say that after doing some research, you are highly convinced that Bitcoin is bullish and that it is a decent investment.
You decide to buy that from 90.000 level, expecting the exponential growth.
Instead of growing, however, the market starts falling rapidly.
Rather than closing your position in loss, you decide to do a new research and execute the analysis, you start looking for the proof of your pre-existing beliefs. You completely neglect the voices of Bitcoin sceptics and ignore bearish clues on the price chart.
You consider only the facts that support a bullish outloo k, not letting you accept the other point of view.
You become a victim of a confirmation bias.
Unfortunately, such a psychological trap frequently prevents a closing of a trading position in time, leading to substantial losses.
Confirmation bias is a common psychological error that makes a subject overvalue the information that upholds his existing beliefs and undervalue the opposing one.
Here are the most common symptoms of that trap:
1️⃣One is neglecting the objective facts.
2️⃣One is interpreting information in a way to support the existing beliefs.
3️⃣One is considering only the facts that conform with his point of view.
4️⃣One is completely ignoring the information that challenges his beliefs.
The only way to beat a confirmation bias in trading, is to learn to analyze the market from sellers' and from buyers' perspective . Your task is to compare the view of the 2 sides, and pick the one that is stronger, holding in mind the fact that everything can change.
You should always remember of the changing nature of financial markets and be ready to always reassess your views.
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How to Trade Christmas and New Year Winter Holidays
As the winter holidays are already around the corner, you should know exactly when to stop trading and close your trades, and when to resume.
In this article, you will learn how Christmas and New Year holidays affect the financial markets and I will share with you my trading schedule.
First, let's discuss how winter holidays influence the markets.
Winter holidays lead to a dramatic reduction in trading volumes.
Many traders and investors take vacations in that period.
Major financial institutions, banks, hedge funds often operate with reduced staffing and early closes or are completely close for holidays.
All these factors inevitably lead to the diminished trading activity.
Look at the schedule of official banking holidays in many countries.
Since Tuesday 24th, the banks are officially closed in Europe, UK, USA and so on.
But why should you care?
If you have free time, why can't you continue trading?
Even if you trade technical analysis, you should admit the fact the fundamentals are the main driver for significant price movements.
One of the major sources of high impact fundamentals is the economic news releases in the economic calendar.
Look at the economic calendar.
You can see that the last day of high impact news releases will be Friday, December 20th.
After that, the calendar is completely empty.
The absence of impactful fundamentals will inevitably make the markets stagnate, making trading very boring.
Above is the EURUSD price chart with ATR technical indicator (the one that measure the market volatility).
We see a clear drop in volatility during a winter holiday season.
You can behold a similar pattern on Gold chart.
With the big politicians taking vacations during the holidays season,
we tend to see the local easing of geological tensions accompanied by a lack of significant foreign and domestic policy actions and announcements.
That's the US congressional calendar.
There are no sessions since December 23rd.
But there is one more reason why you should not trade during winter holidays.
The absence of big players on the market will decrease the overall trading volumes - the liquidity.
Lower liquidity will unavoidably increase the bid/ask spreads.
The widened spreads will make trading more costly, especially if you are scalping or day trading.
And when should you resume trading?
It always depends on how actively the markets wake up after holidays.
The minimal starting day will be January 6th.
I usually do not trade this week and just watch how the markets starts moving.
I prefer to begin my trading year from Monday next week, the January 13th.
Holidays seasons will be the best period for you to do the back testing and learning.
Pick a trading strategy that you want to trade with in a new year and sacrifice your time to back test it on different instruments.
Learn important theory and various techniques, relax and prepare your self for a new trading season.
Have a great time, traders!
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Cup & Handle Pattern TutorialA cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern that signals a potential upward price movement after a consolidation period. Here's a breakdown of its key components:
Cup: The pattern starts with a downward move in price, forming a rounded bottom (the "cup"). The price then rallies back up to the level where it began, creating a U-shape.
Handle: After the cup forms, the price pulls back downward in a smaller, rounded formation (the "handle"). This handle is typically a consolidation period before the price resumes its upward trend.
Win Rate
The cup and handle pattern is known for its high reliability and success rate. Research shows that it has a 95% success rate in bull markets and an average profit of around 54%. However, it's important to follow strict trading rules to achieve these results
Inverse Head & Shoulder Tutorial An inverse head and shoulders pattern is the opposite of the head and shoulders pattern and signals a potential bullish reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. Here's a breakdown of its key components:
Left Shoulder: The price falls to a trough and then rises back to a resistance level.
Head: The price falls again to a lower trough and then rises back to the same resistance level.
Right Shoulder: The price falls again but only to the level of the first trough, then rises once more.
The pattern gets its name because it resembles an upside-down head with shoulders on either side. The neckline is the resistance level connecting the highest points of each peak.
Types of Inverse Head and Shoulders Patterns
Inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom: This pattern signals a potential reversal from a bearish trend to a bullish trend.
How to Trade It
Breakout Confirmation: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks above the neckline in an inverse head and shoulders bottom.
Entry Point: Traders often enter a long position when the neckline is broken in an inverse head and shoulders bottom.
Triple Bottom Pattern Tutorial: 5/8 Bullish Chart PatternsTriple Bottom Pattern Tutorial: 5/8 Bullish Chart Patterns
A bullish triple bottom is a reversal chart pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend and the start of an upward trend. Here's a breakdown:
Three Lows: The pattern is characterized by three distinct lows that are roughly equal in price. These lows form after a significant downtrend, indicating strong support at that level.
Rallies Between Lows: Each low is separated by two intermediate rallies that create peaks. These peaks form the resistance level known as the neckline.
Neckline: The horizontal line connecting the highs of the intermediate rallies is called the neckline. This is a crucial resistance level that the price must break through to confirm the pattern.
Breakout: A breakout above the neckline, typically accompanied by increased trading volume, confirms the triple bottom pattern. This breakout signifies a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish.
Price Target: The expected price target is often calculated by measuring the distance from the pattern's lowest low to the neckline and projecting that distance upwards from the breakout point.
Traders view the triple bottom as a strong indication that the selling pressure has been exhausted and that buyers are starting to gain control, suggesting a potential upward price movement.
Bullish Double Bottom Pattern Tutorial: 4/8 Bullish PatternsGive me the description for a bullish double-bottom
A bullish double bottom is a powerful reversal chart pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend and the beginning of an upward trend. Here’s how it forms:
Two Troughs: The pattern starts with a significant price decline, forming a low (the first bottom). The price then rebounds to create a peak (the middle of the "W" shape) but soon declines again to form a second bottom roughly at the same price level as the first bottom. This double bottom resembles the letter "W."
Neckline: The horizontal line that connects the peak of the middle rebound is called the neckline. This is a key resistance level that the price needs to break through to confirm the pattern.
Breakout: A breakout above the neckline, typically accompanied by increased volume, confirms the double bottom pattern and signals a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
Price Target: The estimated price target for the upward move is usually determined by measuring the distance from the bottoms to the neckline and projecting this distance upwards from the point of breakout.
Traders view the double bottom as a strong indication that the previous downtrend has exhausted and the bulls are gaining control, leading to a potential significant upward movement.
Ascending Triangle Pattern Tutorial: 3/8 Bullish PatternsAscending Triangle Pattern Tutorial: 3/8 Bullish Patterns
An ascending triangle is a bullish continuation chart pattern that signals the potential for an upward breakout. Here's how it forms:
Flat Upper Trendline: The upper trendline is flat, indicating a resistance level where the price consistently faces selling pressure and fails to move higher.
Rising Lower Trendline: The lower trendline is ascending, showing higher lows as buyers step in at increasingly higher prices.
Price Convergence: The price action gets squeezed between the two trendlines, leading to a tightening range.
Breakout: Eventually, the price breaks above the resistance level, indicating a continuation of the upward trend. This breakout is typically accompanied by a surge in volume.
Ascending triangles are popular among traders because they offer clear entry and exit points. The height of the triangle, measured from the base to the horizontal resistance, can be used to estimate the potential price target following the breakout.
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Mastering the Anchored Volume Profile: Setup & Tutorial on TVMastering the Anchored Volume Profile: Setup & Tutorial on TradingView 📊
The Anchored Volume Profile is a powerful tool that traders use to visualize volume distribution over a specified price range, providing critical insights into market behavior. Here’s a detailed description of its setup and usage on TradingView:
In this video, we will be going in-depth into the following areas:
What is the Anchored Volume Profile?
The Anchored Volume Profile is a specialized indicator that helps traders understand the distribution of traded volume at different price levels. Unlike traditional volume profiles that analyze data over a fixed time period, the anchored version allows traders to anchor the volume analysis to specific bars, candles, or price points.
Why Use the Anchored Volume Profile?
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels: You can easily identify key support and resistance levels by analyzing where the most volume has been traded.
Spotting Trends and Reversals: High-volume nodes can indicate areas of strong interest, helping to predict potential trend continuations or reversals.
Improving Entry and Exit Points: Knowing where the market participants are most active can significantly enhance your decision-making process for entries and exits.
How to set up the Anchored Volume Profile on TradingView:
Add the Anchored Volume Profile Indicator:
Click on the “Indicators” button at the top of the chart.
Search for “Anchored Volume Profile” in the search bar.
Select it from the list and apply it to your chart.
Anchor the Indicator:
Click on the anchor icon that appears on the chart.
Drag it to the specific bar, candle, or price point where you want to start your volume analysis.
Customize Settings:
Adjust the settings to suit your trading style. You can modify the range, color, and other parameters to better visualize the data.
Using the Anchored Volume Profile:
Analyzing Volume Nodes: Identify high and low volume nodes. High volume nodes often act as support or resistance, while low volume nodes might indicate potential breakout areas.
Understanding Market Sentiment: See where the majority of trading activity has taken place to gauge market sentiment.
Making Informed Decisions: Use the insights from the volume profile to make better-informed trading decisions regarding entries, exits, and stop-loss levels.
Learn Best Time Frames For Scalping Any Forex Pair
I am trading forex with top-down analysis for many years.
In this article, I will teach you powerful combinations of multiple time frames for scalping any currency pair.
For scalping financial markets with multiple time frame analysis, I recommend applying 3 time frames: 4H, 15 minutes and 5 minutes time frames.
4H time frame will be applied for trend and structure analysis.
On a 4H time frame, you should identify the direction of the market and significant supports and resistance.
Key supports in a bullish trend will be applied for buying the market.
While key resistances will be applied for counter trend trading.
Above is USDJPY chart, 4H time frame.
The trend is bullish and I have underlined important historical structures.
Key resistances in a bearish trend will be applied for selling the market.
While key supports will be applied for counter trend trading.
Look at a structure and trend analysis on EURUSD on a 4H time frame.
15 minutes and 5 minutes time frames will be applied for confirmation, entry signal and trade execution.
The logic is that once you identified key levels on a 4H time frame, you are patiently waiting for the test of one of these structures.
Once one of the key levels is tested, you start analyzing 15 minutes and 5 minutes time frame and look for a signal there.
What should be the signal?
It can be a specific candlestick pattern, price action pattern, some signal from a technical indicator or some other stuff.
Personally, I look for a price action pattern.
I am looking for a bearish price action pattern on a 4H resistance and a bullish price action pattern on a 4H support.
Look at GBPUSD. The pair is trading in a bearish trend on a 4H time frame, and it tests a key horizontal resistance.
On 15 minutes time frame, we see a strong bearish price action signal.
Head and shoulders pattern formation and a bearish breakout of its horizontal neckline.
That will be our strong scalping short signal.
If you sell the market in a bearish trend on a 4H from a key resistance, you can anticipate a bearish movement to the closest 4H support.
Look how nicely GBPUSD dropped after a strong bearish confirmation of 15 minutes time frame.
In that case, we did not apply 5 minutes time frame in our analysis,
keep reading and I will explain when we apply 5 minutes time frame for scalping.
Above is USDCAD. On a 4H time frame, I executed trend and structure analysis. We see a test of a key support in a bullish trend.
At the same time, no pattern is formed on 15 minutes time frame after a test of structure.
In such a situation, analyze 5 minutes time frame. If there is no pattern on 15m, probabilities will be high that the pattern will appear on 5m.
On 5 minutes time frame, the pair formed the ascending triangle formation. A bullish breakout of its neckline is a strong bullish signal and confirmation for us to buy.
If you buy the market in a bullish trend on a 4H from a key support, you can anticipate a bullish movement to the closest 4H resistance.
You can see that after our confirmed bullish signal, the price went up to Resistance 1.
Both trading opportunities that we discussed are trend following ones.
Remember that the trades that are taken against the trend are riskier and have lower accuracy.
For that reason, if you are a newbie trader, strictly trade with the trend!
Good luck in scalping with multiple time frame analysis!
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Unlock Market Targets with Fibonacci: Precise Entries & Exits Hey there! In this video, I’ll walk you through how I use the 50% and 100% Fibonacci levels to get a clear sense of where the market might move next. It’s a simple, no-fuss approach that helps me trade with more confidence—without cluttering my charts with tons of indicators.
The projection marks where a move might wrap up—perfect for deciding when to exit or take profits. Whether you’re into forex, crypto, or stocks, this strategy can keep things simple and effective.
If you found this helpful, feel free to like, boost, comment, or follow—I’d love to know your thoughts and hear how this method works for you!
Mindbloome Trading
Trade What You See
Best Swing Trading Strategies For Beginners (FOREX, GOLD)
I am going to reveal 3 profitable swing trading strategies for beginners.
These strategies are tailored for trading Gold, Forex or any other financial market.
I will explain entry signal, stop loss and take profit placement for every strategy and share a lot of examples based on real trades that we took with my students.
First, let's discuss key elements that unite these strategies.
1. All the strategies will be trend-following.
It means that the trades will be taken strictly in the direction of the market trend.
2. All the strategies will be daily time frame based.
Daily time frame will be the main time frame for the market analysis.
3. All the strategies are technical analysis strategies.
The decision-making and market analysis will be strictly based on technical analysis: price action, support and resistance.
Strategy 1: Break of Structure Strategy
Break of Structure is a classic swing trading trend following strategy that is based on:
1. Bullish breakout of the level of the last higher high in a bullish trend
2. Bearish breakout of the levels of the last lower low in a bearish trend
In a bullish trend, a bullish violation of the level of the last higher high and a candle close above that is a very strong bullish signal.
It signifies the strength of the buyers and indicates a highly probable bullish continuation.
A perfect entry point after a confirmed Break of Structure is the retest of the level of the last higher high.
Stop loss is 1 ATR.
Take Profit - the next key resistance.
Look at EURCAD pair on a daily time frame.
The market is trading in a bullish trend and we see a confirmed break of structure - a daily candle close above the level of the last higher high.
Here is how the trading position should look.
Take profit is the closest resistance based on a historic price action.
Look how perfectly this trade played out.
In a bearish trend, a bearish violation of the level of the last lower low and a candle close below that is a strong bearish signal.
It signifies the strength of the sellers and indicates a highly probable bearish continuation.
A perfect entry point after a confirmed Break of Structure is the retest of the level of the last lower low.
Stop loss is 1 ATR.
Take Profit - the next key support.
Above, EURNZD is trading in a bearish trend on a daily and we see a confirmed break of structure - a daily candle close below the level of the last lower low.
Here is how a short position looks - entry is on a retest of a broken structure, stop loss is 1 ATR and take profit the closest key support.
163 pips of pure profit were made.
Strategy 2: Trend Line Strategy
Trend Line is a classic swing trading trend following strategy that is based on:
1. Rising trend line based on higher lows in a bullish trend
2. Falling trend line based on lower high in a bearish trend
In a bullish trend, higher lows may respect a rising trend line.
Such a trend line will be a strong vertical support.
It will provide a safe point for buying the market.
Entry will be based on a test of a trend line.
Take profit will be at least the level of the current higher high.
Stop loss will be 1 ATR.
When you are looking for a trend line in a bullish trend, remember a simple rule.
A valid trend line should be confirmed by at least 3 touches and 3 consequent bullish reactions to that.
For example, a rising trend line on a GBPUSD above will be invalid trend line because it is confirmed by just 2 touches.
While the trend line that I spotted on USDCAD is valid, because it was already respected 3 times in a row in the past.
Above is the valid rising trend line based on higher lows in a bullish trend.
Here is how a swing long trend from that trend line should look.
Stop loss is based on 1 ATR. Entry from a trend line.
Take profit is based on the current higher high.
Almost 300 pips were made.
In a bearish trend, lower highs may respect a falling trend line.
Such a trend line will be a strong vertical resistance.
It will provide a safe point for selling the market.
Entry will be based on a test of a trend line.
Take profit will be at least the level of the current lower low.
Stop loss is 1 ATR.
When you are looking for a trend line in a bearish, remember a simple rule.
A valid trend line should be confirmed by at least 3 touches and 3 consequent bearish reactions to that.
The trend line on EURGBP above is invalid because 2 touches confirm it.
While that trend line is valid and confirmed by 3 strong bearish reactions.
In the example above, EURCHF is trading in a long term bearish trend.
Lowers highs perfectly respect a falling trend line.
It can provide a safe entry for swing short trade.
Following the rules of our trading strategy, here is a swing short trade from that trend line.
Stop loss is 1 ATR. Take profit is based on the current lower low.
250 pips of pure profit were made.
Strategy 3: Higher Low / Lower High Strategy
Higher Low / Lower High is a classic swing trading trend following strategy that is based on:
1. The last higher low in a bullish trend
2. The last lower high in a bearish trend
In a bullish trend, the level of the last higher low composes an important horizontal support from where, with a high probability,
a bullish wave may initiate.
This level will provide a perfect entry for swing long trade.
Stop loss will be 1 ATR.
Take profit will be the resistance based on current higher high.
USDCHF is trading in a bullish trend on a daily.
The levels of the last higher low is a perfect point to buy the market .
According to the rules, stop loss is based on 1 ATR.
Take profit is based on the current higher high.
Great winner and nice trade!
In a bearish trend, the level of the last lower high composes a key horizontal resistance from where, with a high probability,
a bearish wave will initiate.
This level will provide a perfect entry for swing short trade.
Stop loss will be 1 ATR.
Take profit will be the support based on current lower low.
Look at EURUSD on a daily.
The pair is trading in a bearish trend.
The level of the last lower high provides a safe point
to sell the market from.
That's how a short position should look based on the rules of the trading strategy.
Stop loss is 1 ATR.
Take profit is based on the last lower low.
Entry is the level of the last lower high.
Target was quickly reached.
All these strategies are very accurate.
It provides good reward to risk ratio and is very easy to understand and apply properly.
Try one of these swing trading strategies and find the one that suites your trading style.
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