CAD/JPY Short, EUR/USD Long and NZD/CAD ShortCAD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
EUR/USD Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 2 touch 1H continuation, 15 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
NZD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
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NZD/USD Short, NZD/JPY Short and NZD/CAD ShortNZD/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
NZD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
NZD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
AUDUSD: Asian foreign exchange market increased slightly as the Most Asian currencies rose on Wednesday, seeing relief as the dollar eased in anticipation of more signals from the Federal Reserve on its path to adjusting interest rates.
Regional units are still suffering heavy losses in recent sessions as fading expectations of an early Fed rate cut sent the dollar rallying to a three-month high.
However, the greenback has fallen significantly from recent highs this week, bringing relief to Asian markets.
USD falls after Fed minutes, speakers in sight
The dollar index and dollar index futures both fell about 0.1% each during the Asian session, as investors took some profits in the greenback ahead of a series of signals Fed this week.
Minutes from the Fed's late January meeting are due later on Wednesday, after the bank kept interest rates steady and largely downgraded expectations for an early rate cut.
In addition to the minutes, a host of Fed officials will also speak this week, including Raphael Bostic and Michelle Bowman later on Wednesday.
USDJPY: Asian foreign exchange weakens, dollar rises, will interMost Asian currencies fell on Monday, while the dollar regained momentum as investors were cautious ahead of a series of signals on interest rates and inflation in the US this weekend.
Anticipation of some regional economic signals - particularly data on Japanese inflation and China's purchasing managers index - also has traders nervous, especially amid anxiety. Concerns are growing about slowing growth in the region's largest economies.
Japanese Yen fluctuates above 150, waiting for CPI data
The yen fluctuated slightly on Monday but remained just above 150 per dollar and remained near a three-month low.
This week focuses mainly on Japan's consumer price index (CPI) data for January, due on Tuesday. The data is expected to show core inflation is within the Bank of Japan's annual target of 2%, giving the central bank even less incentive to start tightening policy. books strongly.
This notion has put pressure on the yen in recent months, especially as US interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer. However, further declines in the yen were limited by the risk of government intervention, as levels above 150 have attracted intervention in the past.
PCE inflation, Fed signals are paying attention
The dollar index and dollar index futures both rose 0.1% in Asian trading on Monday, after posting their first weekly losses of 2024.
However, the greenback remains near a three-month high as many Federal Reserve officials warn that the bank is in no hurry to start cutting interest rates soon, especially as inflation remains subdued. High.
PCE price index data - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - is expected to provide further inflation signals this week. Several other Fed officials are also expected to speak this week and may reiterate the outlook for higher interest rates for longer.
GBPUSD: The USD fell earlier than the PMI data, the Euro and BriThe dollar edged lower in early European trade on Thursday, with risk sentiment buoyed by Nvidia's strong earnings, while traders awaited the release of business activity surveys. important for finding clues about the health of the global economy.
At 04:10 ET (09:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was trading 0.4% lower at 103.472, down nearly 1% year to date. this point this week.
Strong earnings from AI favorite Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) boosted global confidence, resulting in the safe-haven dollar taking a hit, favoring more cyclical currencies .
The greenback hit a high this week, but remains more than 2% higher for the year, as traders eased aggressive bets on a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
Minutes of the Fed's late January meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that the bank is in no hurry to reduce interest rates in the near future. Speeches by several Fed officials this week also reiterated this hawkish stance, with policymakers citing concerns about tough inflation.
Attention now turns to the release of PMI data, weekly unemployment data and, more importantly, manufacturing and services PMI data for February, to gauge the economy's underlying strength.
GBP/USD traded 0.5% higher at 1.2701, with UK PMI data expected to show strong expansion in the country's dominant services sector.
Gold breaks the safe threshold and can increase sharplyWith gold now up for the fourth day in a row, it has allowed a nice bullish trend to develop on the 1-hour chart. The recent gains were accompanied by increased volume and tapered off as the price retraced. The price is currently trying to build support around the 10-day EMA and previous highs/double tops around $2024 and RSI (2) is oversold, so perhaps an inflection point is near. Also note that the RSI 14 is holding above the 50 level, which supports momentum for the overall trend.
Bulls can look for dips targeting the $2036 to $2040 area, near the weekly R1 pivot point and the monthly pivot point. A weaker US dollar and lower interest rates will be the ideal scenario for gold to extend its current upward momentum. However, I suspect the $2040 area could offer some resistance or retracement.
GBPUSD (D) is likely to resume its downtrendOANDA:GBPUSD GBPUSD (D) is likely to resume its downtrend after a bullish attempt to the 0.681 Fibonacci retracement zone.
Sell limmit at: 1.26787
SL at: 1.27851
TP1 at: 1.25247
TP2 at: 1.23688
Note: capital management 2%.
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USDJPY: The USD is stable in the context of the Fed cutting specThe yen showed resilience, up 0.23% against the dollar at 150.26, although Japan's GDP figures showed a larger-than-expected recession and Germany overtook Japan as the world's leading economic power. third largest economy in the world. Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist points out that the technical recession in Japan has minimal impact on the dollar/yen exchange rate, with upcoming spring wage negotiations seen as has more influence on the policy direction of the Bank of Japan and the performance of the yen. The market is still considering the high possibility of BOJ raising interest rates in April, despite negative GDP data.
EURUSD: The USD remained stable as the market waited for US inflThe US dollar remained steady on Monday, with limited trading activity due to the holiday in major markets in Asia. Investors are awaiting the release of US inflation data, which is expected to play a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, scheduled for release on Tuesday, is in particular focus as it could provide insight into when the Fed may consider cutting interest rate.
In currency developments, the euro fell slightly to $1.0778, falling back from a 10-day peak reached early in the trading session. This follows a modest rebound last week following a period of contraction throughout 2024. Fourth-quarter euro zone economic growth data, due on Wednesday, is expected to provide provide additional signals for the direction of the currency.
CAD/JPY Short and EUR/USD ShortCAD/JPY Short
• If price impulses down below our area of interest on the one hour chart and a subsequent two touch fifteen minute flag forms, then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/JPY Long and EUR/USD ShortUSD/JPY Long
• If price corrects and a three touch larger one hour structure forms, then I'll filter the latter on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get long with a risk entry within it.
• If price corrects and a two touch larger one hour structure forms with a three touch structural approach, then I'll filter them both on the fifteen minute chart and I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry within them.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USDJPY: The yen is at a 10-week low as the dollar rose for a fouThe Japanese yen remained near a 10-week low on Friday, with currency markets adjusting expectations around interest rate movements from global central banks. The yen traded slightly changed at 149.315 against the USD, after falling to 149.48 in the previous session, marking its lowest since November 27.
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida's comments on Thursday suggested the central bank is unwilling to raise interest rates quickly even after potentially ending its negative interest rate policy, which some Market participants predict it could happen as soon as next month.
Despite careful monitoring of foreign exchange movements by Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, who reiterated that monetary policy decisions belong to the central bank, the yen did not show a significant reaction.
The dollar index, a gauge against six major currencies, remained steady at 104.15. It rose 0.1% on Thursday after data showed resilience in the US labor market, dampening expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. For the week, the dollar index was up 0.18%, boosted by strong monthly payrolls data last Friday and hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in a "60" interview. minutes" aired on Sunday.
Upcoming US economic data includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for January, which will be released on Tuesday.
Traders have significantly reduced the odds of a rate cut at the Fed's March policy meeting to just 16.5%, down sharply from 65.9% a month ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool .
WTICO/USD ShortWTICO/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/JPY Long and SUGAR/USD LongAUD/JPY Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back up on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get long with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
SUGAR/USD Long
• If price corrects and a subsequent two touch tight fifteen minute flag forms, then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get long with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USDJPY: Fed Chairman Powell: An interest rate cut in March is unFed Chairman Powell participated withinside the American tv program "60 Minutes":
With the economic system strong, we sense the want to take into account the timing of hobby price cuts carefully
Confidence is rising, however we need to be even greater assured as we take the `very critical step' of beginning to reduce hobby rates
Achieving desirable development on inflation
An early selection can be made if exertions marketplace weak spot is mentioned or there's convincing proof that inflation is surely falling.
An hobby price reduce in March is not going
Inflation expectancies will hold to say no withinside the first 6 months of this yr because of essential impacts
Expect the 12-month inflation index to say no this yr
Most 19 policymakers see hobby price cuts this yr as appropriate
We do now no longer convey politics into our selection making
There isn't anyt any excessive opportunity of recession
Do now no longer take into account business actual property loans because the purpose of the disaster as withinside the past
China issues are not going to have an effect on the United States economic system, there'll likely be a few impacts, however they may now no longer be large
Geopolitical danger is taken into consideration the largest short-time period danger, however for different areas of the arena it's miles even more than the United States
EUR/CAD ShortEUR/CAD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/CAD Short and WTICO/USD ShortEUR/CAD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
WTICO/USD Short
• If price corrects and a three touch larger one hour structure forms, then I'll filter the latter on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If price corrects and a two touch larger one hour structure forms with a three touch structural approach, then I'll filter them both on the fifteen minute chart and I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within them.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USDJPY (H4) There are signs of weakening momentumOANDA:USDJPY
Observing USDJPY (H4), discernible indicators suggest a waning momentum within a descending price channel. This presents an opportune entry point with anticipated gains outweighing potential risks.
Selling at current price: 147.775
Stop loss at: 148.901
Take profit at: 145.600
Note: Risk management 2%
EUR/USD Short, AUD/JPY Long and AUD/CAD LongEUR/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down on the one hour chart followed by a tight two touch fifteen minute flag and then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/JPY Long
• If price corrects and a subsequent two touch tight fifteen minute flag forms, then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get long with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/CAD Long
• If price corrects and a subsequent two touch tight fifteen minute flag forms, then I'll filter the latter on the five minute chart and be looking to get long with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USDJPY: The dollar was little changed before the European sessioVolatility among major currencies was relatively mild ahead of today's European session. The Australian dollar edged up slightly, building on yesterday's sharp recovery during the US session. Notably, AUD/USD bounced off the December low and 100-day moving average at 0.6525-30 but is now returning to its previous accumulation phase near 0.6600
USD/JPY fell to a more than two-week low and tested the 146.00 level yesterday. That comes after Treasury yields fell sharply again, which made things more complicated this week.
There are no data of note on the economic calendar in Europe today. Thus, all focus and attention will be on the upcoming US employment report.