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GBPJPY: The Japanese Yen will likely be the most interesting The new governor of the BoJ, Kazuo Ueda, has not made drastic changes in monetary policy as expected, causing the Japanese yen to weaken against the USD in 2023. Positive signs appeared in November when the USD/JPY pair fell and bond yields also fell, raising hopes that the BoJ was about to change policy. The BoJ is expected to make an important policy decision next spring, based on the results of salary negotiations. If the BoJ does not change policy as expected, the yen could continue to struggle in the first half of 2024. Although the BoJ may change policy later, this uncertainty will cause the yen to fluctuate widely in the first half of next year. In short, the prospects of the Japanese yen next year depend largely on the BoJ's decision after the salary negotiations. The lack of certainty could create major volatility in the Japanese currency market.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
USDJPY: Asian session update: Stocks and USD fall as they begin USD weakened, JPY and antipodeans led the rise Asian stocks fell, with futures on the S&P 500 index up slightly by 0.07% US 10-year bond yield falls 1.7bp to 3.88% Gold increased 0.5% to around $2063/oz WTI oil increased 0.2% to above $73.70/barrel Bitcoin accumulates around 43.5K Investors continued to digest November PCE and December Consumer Sentiment data released on Friday, which showed that monthly inflation in the US fell for the first time in more than 3½ years, while sentiment Consumer sentiment remains strong, reflecting the economy's durability. A deceleration in core inflation and growing recession fears will prompt the Fed to shift from "committing to fighting inflation with higher interest rates for longer" to reassuring markets that it will "not hold rates." stayed high for too long". In the FX market, major currencies increased slightly after the Christmas holiday as the USD weakened. USD/JPY is steady at 142.30. The prospect of the BoJ removing its ultra-loose policy has supported JPY's rise in recent weeks. Yesterday, BoJ Governor Ueda announced that the possibility of reaching the inflation target is "gradually increasing" and that they will consider adjusting policy if there is "enough" prospect of reaching the 2% target in a sustainable way.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
GBP/CAD Long and EUR/USD ShortGBP/CAD Long • If price impulses up above our most recent high, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/USD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
1
EURJPY: MUFG CEO: BoJ may eliminate negative interest rate policMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) President Hiroki Kamezawa stated in an interview with Japanese media outlet Asahi Shimbun: The BoJ is gradually achieving its price target and wage hike "This is only a matter of time." The negative interest rate policy could be eliminated as early as 2024 due to positive developments in wages and prices. This policy has put pressure on the businesses of financial institutions because it reduces the profit margins they can earn on lending. MUFG is Japan's largest financial group and the world's second largest bank holding company.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GBP/CAD Long and GBP/USD LongGBP/CAD Long • If price impulses up above our most recent high, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. GBP/USD Long • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up above our most recent low followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
1
USDJPY: Dollar fluctuates as views of interest rate cuts grow; TThe US dollar is experiencing volatility against most major currencies today, with market sentiment affected by predictions that the US Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates. The Japanese yen remains an exception, maintaining its position against the dollar following the Bank of Japan's decision to continue its expansionary monetary policy. Federal Reserve officials tried to manage market expectations after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week, which hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024. This outlook has led to a surge in financial markets, with current forecasts suggesting a 67.5% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, based on the CME FedWatch tool. Senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, Kyle Rodda, commented on the situation, saying that the Federal Reserve must now decide whether to match market expectations or counter them, potentially causing market instability. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday reiterated his forecast for two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but emphasized that immediate action was not necessary. At the same time, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that the central bank's ability to lower interest rates will depend on the trajectory of the economy. The dollar index, which compares the US dollar to a basket of other currencies, remained relatively unchanged at 102.20 after falling more than 0.3% earlier. Last week, the index hit a four-month low at 101.76. Rodda also mentioned that upcoming economic data will be important in determining the direction of the dollar, as it will indicate whether the expected interest rate cuts for next year are justified. Investors are now awaiting the release of the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which could shed light on whether inflation is slowing enough to justify easing. policy next year or not. In Japan, the yen traded lower at 143.78 yen against the dollar, having weakened after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which did not suggest a change was imminent from negative interest rates. According to National Australia Bank senior foreign exchange strategist Rodrigo Catril, expectations are now set for a policy change no sooner than April.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
2
GBPUSD: The dollar finds its footing as Fed officials downplay hThe dollar index and dollar index futures both traded flat during the Asian session on Tuesday, but marked strong recoveries from four-month lows over the past two sessions. A series of Fed officials said that although the bank will cut interest rates in 2024, expectations of an imminent shift are unfounded. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the bank has not committed to cutting interest rates anytime soon and joined some other officials in pushing back expectations of a sudden drop in interest rates. However, market valuations are suggesting a nearly 63% chance of a rate cut by March 2024. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts also said Tuesday that the central bank will cut interest rates five times by 2024, with the majority of the cuts coming in the first half of the year. ​
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
1
GBP/CAD Long, CAD/CHF Long, NZD/USD Long and AUD/USD LongGBP/CAD Long • If price impulses up above our most recent high, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. CAD/CHF Long • If price corrects and a three touch tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. NZD/USD Long • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up above our most recent low followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. AUD/USD Long • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up above our most recent low followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
9
USDJPY: Goldman Sachs: Reduced 12-month USD/JPY forecast to 140 Goldman Sachs Data reported on December 18 that Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for next year's exchange rate and expects the US dollar to weaken further. “The biggest revisions to our forecasts are on exchange-sensitive currencies like the Japanese yen,” strategists including Danny Suwanapruti and Michael Cahill wrote in a Dec. 15 report. , the Swedish krona and the Indonesian rupiah, these currencies will struggle under a 'keep interest rates higher for longer' regime. " Goldman Sachs forecasts USD/JPY three-month target at 145, six-month target at 142 and 12-month target at 140; previous forecasts for the same period were 155, 155 and 150 respectively.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
🔥EURUSD BEARISH ANALYSIS 💥💥Hello traders what do you think about euousd)? traders euousd breakout trade line support levels Rsl retet To lower high Rsl now waiting for retest same Rsl? Now see I will down 👇 support levels ✅ Key levels 1.07948 Key levels 1.06500 Key levels 1.05500 💵 steady, euro soft as traders wager rate cuts to begin in Q1 Dec 6, 202314:19 GMT+5 The dollar held near a two-week high on Wednesday, while the euro was weak across the board as markets ramped up bets that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates as early as March. The euro EURUSD was down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.0783, after touching a three-week low of $1.0775, as markets adjust rate expectations lower following soft data and dovish central commentary. The single currency was also at a three-month low against the pound EURGBP , a five-week low versus the yen EURJPY and a 6-1/2 week low against the Swiss franc EURCHF . "The story in currency markets is mostly about a softer euro," said Niels Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. "Yesterday's comments from ECB's Schnabel supported the market view of early rate cuts." Influential policy-maker Isabel Schnabel on Tuesday told Reuters that further interest rate hikes could be taken off the table given a "remarkable" fall in inflation. Markets are now placing around an 85% chance that the ECB cuts interest rates at the March meeting, with almost 150 basis points worth of cuts priced by the end of next year.
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
EURUSD: EUR/USD holds steady at peak, awaiting PMI data.The main movement of EUR/USD this week was driven by statements expressing the views of the Fed and ECB with a strong increase from 1.0800 to the important resistance level of 1.1000 yesterday. This makes this currency pair face a rather interesting situation when Eurozone PMI data will be published this afternoon. Does the above data support the ECB's stance of "keeping interest rates higher for a long time"? Or will it pressure central banks to act faster next year? Additionally, another factor to consider is the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. The odds of a rate cut in March are currently around 80%, so there won't be much room left to exploit this story on the USD side. However, for the ECB, the rate of a cut in March is currently only 55%. Therefore, any change in this possibility will depend on upcoming data with PMI being reliable data in forecasting the economic outlook. Another factor to note: Today is the options expiration date for EUR/USD at 1.0950. This price level will help the pair be more stable in case any downward pressure occurs.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GBP/USD Long, GBP/CHF Long, EUR/CAD Short and EUR/NZD LongGBP/USD Long • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. GBP/CHF Long • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/CAD Short • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD Long • If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
GBPJPY: Reuters: The BOJ meeting next week is expected to have nThe latest Reuters poll on the Bank of Japan's outlook includes the following key points: BoJ will end negative interest rates by 2024, 84% of economists said in their quarter-end forecast; 71% in the November poll and 54% in the October poll. 88% of economists think the BoJ will end yield curve control; 12% think the BoJ will adjust YCC again. 28 out of 42 economists say BoJ interest rates will rise to 0.00% or 0.10% by the end of the second quarter of 2024; Two people thought it was 0.25%.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
1
USDJPY: Japan's ruling party proposes to reduce income taxReuters reported: The tax reform council of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party has agreed to reduce income taxes to compensate households suffering from soaring prices and support a change in the deflationary mindset that has pervaded the country. past decades The move is also intended to encourage a healthy growth cycle driven by private sector demand, with tax policymakers increasing tax breaks for businesses planning to increase wages. The draft of tax breaks under the framework of tax reform in fiscal year 2024 will be finalized on Thursday
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
NZDJPY: Asian session market update: NZD decreased during the seNZD fell during the session, a report from Westpac cut its expectations for Q4 CPI to 3%. If inflation falls rapidly, it would mean the Reserve Bank of New Zealand does not need to keep interest rates 'higher for longer' and would therefore cut support for the NZD. In addition, the Tankan Q4 report includes a survey of thousands of Japanese companies of all sizes, in many industries conducted by the Bank of Japan. Shows that the Japanese economy continues to improve, albeit slowly, and also shows that business inflation expectations remain above 2% (BOJ target) for 5 years! USD recovered, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD all decreased slightly. The market is now mainly waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Oil prices remain high, a draft global declaration at COP28 called for the world to transition away from fossil fuels by 2050.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EUR/NZD ShortEUR/NZD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Short
by StewySongs
1
EUR/GBP Short, AUD/CAD Long, EUR/NZD Short and USD/CAD ShortEUR/GBP Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. AUD/CAD Long • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up above our most recent low followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/NZD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. USD/CAD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
5