USDCHF: Fed officials want to continue assessing the yield Several hawkish Fed policymakers spoke on Tuesday, saying that the tightening of financial conditions since July (10-year Treasury yields have risen more than 100 basis points) is likely to affect the economy, although it will take some time to become apparent. It was suggested that it may have a debilitating effect. Is this sustainable?
"We've seen some encouraging progress on inflation, but it remains too high," Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan said at a news conference in Kansas City. The key question for me is whether the fiscal situation we find ourselves in is restrictive enough to raise inflation to 2% in a timely and sustainable manner. ”
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech in St. Louis that the rate hike was a "shock" to the bond market, but another board member, Michelle Bowman, told the Ohio Bankers Federation that officials said it was too early to know the full story. The effects of this "shock".
Officials last week kept interest rates unchanged for two consecutive days at 5.25-5.5%, the highest level in 22 years. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has suggested that there is no longer a need to raise interest rates, arguing that rising yields will cool the economy.
Since then, yields have fallen slightly as investors remain optimistic that the Fed is done tightening.
Tradingforex
USDCAD is still continuing its upward momentumSpeaking on Tuesday, a number of hardline Fed members hinted that the economy may be weaker as a result of the tightening of financial conditions since July, which has seen a rise in 10-year Treasury yields of more than 100 basis points. However, it will take more time to determine if this effect is sustained.
"Inflation has decreased somewhat, but it is still too high," Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated at a Kansas City conference. The fundamental query, in my opinion, is whether the current fiscal constraints are stringent enough to quickly and sustainably raise inflation to 2%.
In a speech in St. Louis, Fed board of governors member Christopher Waller referred to the rate move as a “shock” to the bond market, while Michelle Bowman, another
EURUSD: Evolution and movement trend of EURThe euro lost value compared to the USD today as the dollar had a significant increase. Germany released some disappointing data. Following the RBA's announcement that this would be the final increase in interest rates, the value of the Australian dollar plummeted dramatically.
Germany's industrial production weakened last month, according to data, which had an indirect negative impact on the euro.
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, will talk on Wednesday and Thursday. Following the Fed policy meeting last week, the markets will now be watching to see if he sticks to his more accommodating position.
The euro lost value compared to the USD today as the dollar had a significant increase. Germany released some disappointing data. Following the RBA's announcement that this would be the final increase in interest rates, the value of the Australian dollar plummeted dramatically.
Germany's industrial production weakened last month, according to data, which had an indirect negative impact on the euro.
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, will talk on Wednesday and Thursday. Following the Fed policy meeting last week, the markets will now be watching to see if he sticks to his more accommodating position.
XAUUSD: Gold remains around the bottom of the month, waiting forGold prices continued to fall, coming under selling pressure for the second day in a row and falling almost to this month's low in European trading.
Gold tested the ascending channel support line at $1,978 on Monday. Sellers are now in the ascendancy again and are trying to confirm the bearish triangle pattern. A close below this trend line confirms the pattern and sets the next target at $1,970.
To further break this support, sellers are targeting the 21-day moving average of $1,966, then $1,963, and then $1,950.
GBP/USD Short and EUR/USD ShortGBP/USD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
XAUUSD: President of the Minneapolis Fed Kashkari does notAccording to Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, the Fed has not finished raising interest rates.
The Fed will not be able to return to its 2% inflation target by tightening in a timely manner. In addition, worries about inflation "rising again" exist. It appears that inflation may "stable at above 2% and that makes me very concerned," according to certain salary and pricing data.
To support the conclusion regarding the future direction of interest rates, more evidence is required. "I'm not prepared to declare that interest rate increases are over."
SUGAR/USD Short, GBP/CHF Long, GBP/USD Short and EUR/USD ShortSUGAR/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/CHF Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USDCAD: Amidst a slowdown in interest rate increases, US marketsU.S. stocks are on track to post their biggest weekly gain this year as investors express optimism that U.S. interest rate hikes will be halted. This also led to higher bond prices and a weaker dollar. The focus now shifts to the US jobs report, which will be released later today.
The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates on hold on Wednesday, combined with Chairman Jerome Powell's assertion that risks to the interest rate outlook are balanced, led to a rise in bond yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell more than 20 basis points in two sessions.
USDJPY: Today's (November 3) USD exchange rate: Following the...The US dollar kept falling during the most recent trading session as traders gambled that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) had finished tightening its monetary policy and decided to hold interest rates steady.
As a result, the Fed resolved at its policy meeting in November to maintain current interest rates while assessing the financial landscape to gauge its capacity to contain inflation. Fed funds futures indicate that there is less than 20% likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates in December, but investors continue to support the belief that US interest rates have peaked. Stocks have recovered as a result of that viewpoint increasing investors' risk appetite.
The dollar weakened 0.3% versus the Japanese yen to 150.44, retreating from this week's one-year high
GBP/CHF Long and EUR/CAD Long and trade recap on USD/CHF (-0.7%)GBP/CHF Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/CAD Long
• If price impulses up above our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUDUSD: US dollar falls again as peak interest rates are predictOn Thursday, the US dollar saw a correction, with risk-averse Asian currencies leading the gains. Following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady, investors are celebrating the anticipated peak in US interest rates. With interest rate forecasts still high, the focus is now on the Bank of England. Sterling increased 0.3% to $1.2180 and then steadied to 86.98 per euro.
Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell promised not to overly tighten or loosen policy, he did leave opportunity for another rate hike, with the funds rate goal ceiling at a 22-year high of 5.5%. The markets took this to mean that a rate hike in December was no longer a possibility. Ten-year Treasury yields consequently
EURUSD: European stock futures higher; BOE decisionThursday is expected to see a stronger opening for European stock markets after Wall Street saw a big increase on mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates.
After the US Federal Reserve's most recent policy-setting meeting, investors grew more confident that the next move in US interest rates would be a decrease rather than an increase. European stocks are predicted to carry on the strong momentum on Wall Street overnight, with the Nasdaq Composite up 1.6%.
As was largely anticipated, the Fed held interest rates constant on Wednesday. Chairman Jerome Powell did not explicitly commit to the concept of another rate hike, however, in his remarks.
Back in Europe, it was the turn of the Bank of England to make its most recent monetary policy announcement at
DXY: The USD weakened as Treasury bond yields simultaneously felThis morning, the USD on the world market dropped sharply in the international payment basket. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the USD in a basket of 6 major currencies, reversed and fell 0.69% stronger than the previous session, to 106,150 points.
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EURUSD: The USD increased before the Fed's decision, EURUSD...EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.0562, after data showed prices rose just 2.9% in the euro zone in October, the slowest pace since July 2021.
ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday that the European Central Bank must keep interest rates high enough for long enough as inflation in the euro zone has not been overcome despite a significant decline. told in the past year.
However, this data leads to the perception that the ECB has completed its tightening and the euro could weaken further if Fed Chairman Powell is seen to take a hawkish stance at the end of the session.
USD/CHF Short, NZD/USD Short and trade recap on GBP/USD (+0.2%)USD/CHF Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USDCHF: The USD fell on hopes that the Fed would stop raising inAs traders reinforced their wagers that the Fed would stop hiking interest rates, the USD index and dollar index futures both dropped 0.5% in Asian trading, prolonging losses from the previous day.
Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a less hawkish posture than markets had anticipated by admitting that monetary conditions had tightened somewhat in recent months, even as the Fed maintained interest rates unchanged as anticipated. That.
Powell does not completely rule out raising interest rates one more time. But the market saw his remarks as a signal that the Fed will no longer be raising interest rates and will probably be cutting them by the middle of 2024.
However, rates are predicted to stay over 5% until at least the end of 2024, even if the Fed decides not to raise rates any further. This implies a constrained upside.
USDJPY: Japanese Prime Minister Kishida: The economic stimulus Japanese Prime Minister Kishida said:
The economic stimulus package totals about 17 trillion yen, including tax cuts
Supplementary budget to finance the economic stimulus package worth 13.1 trillion yen
Will try to pass additional budget one day soon
So in the near future will JPY continue to increase?
AUDUSD: AUDUSD is supported by bond yield differentialsThe Australian dollar is up 0.70 percent for the day and is reaching session highs. At 0.6432, the pair is getting close to its highest level since October 11 at 0.6445.
Bond yield differentials and variations in Fed and RBA policy choices strengthen the AUD:
Interest rates between 5.25% to 5.50% will remain unchanged, according to the Fed. On November 7, it is anticipated that the RBA will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.35%.
The yield on Australian government bonds maturing in 10 years dropped by 3 basis points to 4,797%. However, it is important to remember that since September 1, the yield has risen by 83 basis points, from 3,963% to 4,797%. In the meantime, the yield on Treasury bonds went up to 4.71% from 4.06%. Considering the variations in
USDCHF: The market waits for the announcement of US government Due to investor demands for compensation for interest rate and geopolitical risks, as well as worries about oversupply as the Fed tightens monetary policy, both the bond and equity markets are volatile.
Because of this, the market will be much more interested in the capital mobilization announcement on November 1st, including details about the scope and duration of the bond bidding.
According to Josh Emanuel, chief investment officer at Wilshire, "the cause of volatility in bond yields is the imbalance between supply and demand in the market today." While some believe that Fed communications are less significant than issues, I believe that both are crucial.
EURUSD: European stock futures edged higherTuesday's opening of European stock markets is anticipated to be higher as investors digest more corporate earnings in advance of the publication of significant growth and inflation data in the area, overshadowing China's dismal activity statistics.
While consumer prices are predicted to rise 3.1% annually in October, down from 4.3% the previous month, the gross domestic product is only likely to grow by 0.2% annually in the third quarter, down from 0.5% growth in the previous quarter.
USD/CHF Short and GBP/USD ShortUSD/CHF Short
• If price impulses down below the wick below, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USDJPY: The Japanese Yen continues to fall sharply as Tokyo With the EUR/JPY exchange rate at 160.80, the 2008 peak, and the USD/JPY exchange rate at 150.75, the yen is continuing its downward spiral to a new low throughout the day. This occurred when Tokyo dispelled any rumors that it was still protecting the price by confirming that it did not interfere in the currency markets in October.
The BOJ doesn't seem to be planning to become involved in the yen today, therefore it looks like the currency will perform as expected. Tokyo's attempts to defend its currency could backfire given all of the BOJ's recent dovish actions.