USDJPY: Today's (November 3) USD exchange rate: Following the...The US dollar kept falling during the most recent trading session as traders gambled that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) had finished tightening its monetary policy and decided to hold interest rates steady.
As a result, the Fed resolved at its policy meeting in November to maintain current interest rates while assessing the financial landscape to gauge its capacity to contain inflation. Fed funds futures indicate that there is less than 20% likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates in December, but investors continue to support the belief that US interest rates have peaked. Stocks have recovered as a result of that viewpoint increasing investors' risk appetite.
The dollar weakened 0.3% versus the Japanese yen to 150.44, retreating from this week's one-year high
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GBP/CHF Long and EUR/CAD Long and trade recap on USD/CHF (-0.7%)GBP/CHF Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/CAD Long
• If price impulses up above our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUDUSD: US dollar falls again as peak interest rates are predictOn Thursday, the US dollar saw a correction, with risk-averse Asian currencies leading the gains. Following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady, investors are celebrating the anticipated peak in US interest rates. With interest rate forecasts still high, the focus is now on the Bank of England. Sterling increased 0.3% to $1.2180 and then steadied to 86.98 per euro.
Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell promised not to overly tighten or loosen policy, he did leave opportunity for another rate hike, with the funds rate goal ceiling at a 22-year high of 5.5%. The markets took this to mean that a rate hike in December was no longer a possibility. Ten-year Treasury yields consequently
EURUSD: European stock futures higher; BOE decisionThursday is expected to see a stronger opening for European stock markets after Wall Street saw a big increase on mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates.
After the US Federal Reserve's most recent policy-setting meeting, investors grew more confident that the next move in US interest rates would be a decrease rather than an increase. European stocks are predicted to carry on the strong momentum on Wall Street overnight, with the Nasdaq Composite up 1.6%.
As was largely anticipated, the Fed held interest rates constant on Wednesday. Chairman Jerome Powell did not explicitly commit to the concept of another rate hike, however, in his remarks.
Back in Europe, it was the turn of the Bank of England to make its most recent monetary policy announcement at
DXY: The USD weakened as Treasury bond yields simultaneously felThis morning, the USD on the world market dropped sharply in the international payment basket. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the USD in a basket of 6 major currencies, reversed and fell 0.69% stronger than the previous session, to 106,150 points.
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EURUSD: The USD increased before the Fed's decision, EURUSD...EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.0562, after data showed prices rose just 2.9% in the euro zone in October, the slowest pace since July 2021.
ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday that the European Central Bank must keep interest rates high enough for long enough as inflation in the euro zone has not been overcome despite a significant decline. told in the past year.
However, this data leads to the perception that the ECB has completed its tightening and the euro could weaken further if Fed Chairman Powell is seen to take a hawkish stance at the end of the session.
USD/CHF Short, NZD/USD Short and trade recap on GBP/USD (+0.2%)USD/CHF Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USDCHF: The USD fell on hopes that the Fed would stop raising inAs traders reinforced their wagers that the Fed would stop hiking interest rates, the USD index and dollar index futures both dropped 0.5% in Asian trading, prolonging losses from the previous day.
Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a less hawkish posture than markets had anticipated by admitting that monetary conditions had tightened somewhat in recent months, even as the Fed maintained interest rates unchanged as anticipated. That.
Powell does not completely rule out raising interest rates one more time. But the market saw his remarks as a signal that the Fed will no longer be raising interest rates and will probably be cutting them by the middle of 2024.
However, rates are predicted to stay over 5% until at least the end of 2024, even if the Fed decides not to raise rates any further. This implies a constrained upside.
USDJPY: Japanese Prime Minister Kishida: The economic stimulus Japanese Prime Minister Kishida said:
The economic stimulus package totals about 17 trillion yen, including tax cuts
Supplementary budget to finance the economic stimulus package worth 13.1 trillion yen
Will try to pass additional budget one day soon
So in the near future will JPY continue to increase?
AUDUSD: AUDUSD is supported by bond yield differentialsThe Australian dollar is up 0.70 percent for the day and is reaching session highs. At 0.6432, the pair is getting close to its highest level since October 11 at 0.6445.
Bond yield differentials and variations in Fed and RBA policy choices strengthen the AUD:
Interest rates between 5.25% to 5.50% will remain unchanged, according to the Fed. On November 7, it is anticipated that the RBA will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.35%.
The yield on Australian government bonds maturing in 10 years dropped by 3 basis points to 4,797%. However, it is important to remember that since September 1, the yield has risen by 83 basis points, from 3,963% to 4,797%. In the meantime, the yield on Treasury bonds went up to 4.71% from 4.06%. Considering the variations in
USDCHF: The market waits for the announcement of US government Due to investor demands for compensation for interest rate and geopolitical risks, as well as worries about oversupply as the Fed tightens monetary policy, both the bond and equity markets are volatile.
Because of this, the market will be much more interested in the capital mobilization announcement on November 1st, including details about the scope and duration of the bond bidding.
According to Josh Emanuel, chief investment officer at Wilshire, "the cause of volatility in bond yields is the imbalance between supply and demand in the market today." While some believe that Fed communications are less significant than issues, I believe that both are crucial.
EURUSD: European stock futures edged higherTuesday's opening of European stock markets is anticipated to be higher as investors digest more corporate earnings in advance of the publication of significant growth and inflation data in the area, overshadowing China's dismal activity statistics.
While consumer prices are predicted to rise 3.1% annually in October, down from 4.3% the previous month, the gross domestic product is only likely to grow by 0.2% annually in the third quarter, down from 0.5% growth in the previous quarter.
USD/CHF Short and GBP/USD ShortUSD/CHF Short
• If price impulses down below the wick below, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USDJPY: The Japanese Yen continues to fall sharply as Tokyo With the EUR/JPY exchange rate at 160.80, the 2008 peak, and the USD/JPY exchange rate at 150.75, the yen is continuing its downward spiral to a new low throughout the day. This occurred when Tokyo dispelled any rumors that it was still protecting the price by confirming that it did not interfere in the currency markets in October.
The BOJ doesn't seem to be planning to become involved in the yen today, therefore it looks like the currency will perform as expected. Tokyo's attempts to defend its currency could backfire given all of the BOJ's recent dovish actions.
DXY: USD exchange rate today (November 1); The USD reversed and The US economy is resilient, as evidenced by new data released on October 31. This is the most recent indication that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) can sustain high interest rates for an extended length of time.
As a result, given the substantial rise in wages during the third quarter, US labor costs rose dramatically. After increasing by 1.0% between April and June, the employment expenditure index (ECI) increased by 1.1% in the most recent quarter.
According to additional data, US housing prices increased in August for the third straight month, up 5.6% over the same time last year and 4.6% from July.
The Fed started a two-day policy meeting on October 31 and was predicted to maintain interest rates at that time.
NZD/USD ShortNZD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBPJPY: The market is worried about Japan's foreign exchange intThe BoJ meeting will start tomorrow morning. This could be the most interesting meeting in recent times if the BoJ announces a change to its YCC policy and this could cause serious volatility in Japanese Yen pairs.
After the BoJ meeting, the outlook for USD/JPY is likely to differ significantly ahead of the FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the focus will be on the Fed's direction in the near future and the possibility of raising interest rates in December.
EURUSD: Euro slides after inflation data from Germany and SpainOnly a few days after the European Central Bank completed its longest interest rate bull run in 25 years last week by maintaining the key policy rate at 4%, the euro slipped 0.1% to 1.0554 as data indicated that inflation in the euro zone was declining.
Germany's most populated state, North Rhine Westphalia, saw a 3.1% year-over-year increase in consumer prices in October, down from a 4.2% increase the previous month, according to data released early on Monday.
In addition, the Spanish CPI increased by 3.5% annually, less than the 3.8% predicted, and by 0.3% in October, less than the 0.6% predicted.
USDCHF: The Federal Reserve meets this weekThe US dollar has recently strengthened on signs of US economic strength, even after a long period of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
US consumer spending soared in September, while the US economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the third quarter.
Fed policymakers will meet this week, with the central bank expected to leave interest rates unchanged when the decision is announced on Wednesday.
However, traders are concerned that these strong numbers mean they portend higher interest rates for longer as they continue to worry about overheating inflation.
AUDUSD: The Federal Reserve meeting this week influences AUDUSD Even after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for a considerable amount of time, the US dollar has recently appreciated due to indications of the country's robust economy.
September saw a sharp increase in US consumer spending, and the third quarter saw the greatest growth of the US economy in almost two years.
When the Fed announces its decision on Wednesday, policymakers are expected to maintain current interest rates. The Fed will meet this week.
But as markets continue to fret about rising inflation, they are worried that these good data suggest higher interest rates will be around for a longer time.
USDJPY: Yen appreciates ahead of BOJ meetingWith the yen weaker than it was last week when it reached a one-year high of 150.78, USD/JPY dropped 0.1% to 149.50.
The focus will be on the BOJ meeting's conclusion on Tuesday, when it is anticipated that the central bank would make additional announcements regarding its policy to manage the yield curve. High rates of inflation and the sharp fall in the value of the Yen are problems facing this product.
A revival of Japanese consumer inflation is indicated by recent data, and this could lead the Bank of Japan to announce plans to tighten its incredibly lax policy.
USDJPY: Asian foreign exchange little changed; Central banks areWith the Japanese Yen stable below 150, BOJ is the main focus.
Monday saw a small increase in the value of the Japanese yen, which last week dropped to a one-year low and is now trading below 150.
With high inflation and a badly weakened economy, the spotlight is firmly on the outcome of the BOJ meeting on Tuesday, when the central bank is expected to likely announce more adjustments to its yield curve management program.
A rebound in consumer inflation in Japan was seen in recent statistics, which traders speculated would force the BOJ to revert its ultra-loose policy. The bank's negative interest rate policy is expected to terminate in 2024, according to analysts.
The yen, which is among the worst-performing Asian currencies this year, stands to gain from any tightening measures taken by the BOJ.