GBPJPY Ueda faces risk of market collapse as Bank of Japan weighMr. Kazuo Ueda of the Bank of Japan is in a predicament. If he sticks to policy this week, there is a risk that the yen will fall to a 10-year low and the yield control program will come under attack from speculative markets.
If the Governor simultaneously raises the upper limit of 10-year yield curve control, either explicitly or implicitly, the Governor could raise long-term interest rates to levels that are inconsistent with economic fundamentals, which is the Governor's goal. The achievement of stable inflation would be at risk.
In a sign of how tense the monetary policy debate will be, BOJ officials are likely to monitor developments in yields right before deciding whether to adjust the YCC, the people said.
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AUDUSD: More economic data steady dollar, focus on Fed meeting
The dollar index and dollar index futures edged lower in Asian trading but remained firm overnight after data showed U.S. business activity unexpectedly increased in November. Ten.
The statistics suggest continued resilience in the U.S. economy and give the Federal Reserve room to raise rates further. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak at a news conference later in the day, after repeating last week that U.S. interest rates will remain high for a long time.
Third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on Thursday and is expected to provide further signals for the world's largest economy. A strong economy gives the Fed more leeway to keep interest rates high.
NZD/USD ShortNZD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUDCAD BUY | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY . GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity AUDCAD
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EURUSD USD gains momentum as government bond yields rise againEUR/USD was little changed as traders awaited further stimulus following the release of disappointing Eurozone PMI data. Germany's Ifo business report showed business confidence improved from 85.8 in September to 86.9 in October, but this did not provide additional support for European currencies.
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is unable to settle above the resistance at 1.0670-1.0700 and is heading towards the next support at 1.0520-1.0550.
EUR/CAD Long and USD/CHF ShortEUR/CAD Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/CHF Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our second area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUDUSD: Technical analysis of AUDUSD on October 26After failing to overcome resistance and touching below the psychological level of 0.6400, AUD/USD fell rapidly to the 2023 bottom around 0.6300. While it is possible that prices could stall in this zone, it could open the door to a drop to last year's low of 0.6170.
On the other hand, if the buyers return then the first level of resistance will appear at 0.6350, overcoming this mark will bring progress towards 0.6400. And it will be bolder if the bulls attack the 0.6460 mark and take the price to 0.6510.
GBPUSD The downward trend is clearly evidentGBP/USD is losing some ground as traders focus on rising US Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield rose again above 4.90%, while the 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.05%.
The RSI remains in the moderate region, giving GBP/USD a good chance to gain further bearish momentum and head towards the next support between 1.2000 and 1.2030.
CADCHF BUY | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY . GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity CADCHF
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
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EURUSD: ECB under pressure to reduce €1.7 trillion bond portfoli
The European Central Bank is increasingly having to reconsider when to start winding down the 1.7 trillion euro ($1.8 trillion) bond portfolio it bought during the pandemic.
The ECB will begin discussions on ending the PEPP rollover before cuts end in 2024 at a meeting in Athens this week. This is fully consistent with the rate tightening efforts of 10 successive interest rate hikes to bring inflation back to 2%.
EURJPY: BoJ continues to buy bonds irregularly to restrain the rOn October 24, the Bank of Japan announced its fifth extraordinary purchase of government bonds since adjusting its yield curve control program at the end of July.
Despite these efforts, Japan`s 10-year bond yield continued to hit new highs this month, adding to the global stock market decline.
"However, there is still speculation about the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments, making it difficult to recommend bond purchases. "
The Bank of Japan's ultra-easy policy also contributed to the yen's depreciation, making it the weakest G10 currency this year.
USDCHF: Foreign exchange rates today October 25: The world USD iEarlier, survey data showed that business activity in the euro zone unexpectedly worsened this month as the recession spread across the region.
A survey on October 24 showed British businesses reported further contraction this month, with cost pressures continuing to ease and risks of recession pointed to.
USD/CHF Short, GBP/USD Short and EUR/USD ShortUSD/CHF Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUDUSD: AUDUSD is under pressure ahead of US and Australian dataThe Australian dollar is currently down to 0.6310, with the next key supports at 0.6300 and then 0.6285.
For buyers, the key immediate resistance is the 14-day EMA at 0.6347, with resistance at 0.6400 and 0.6429, the 23.6% Fibo level of the decline from July peak to September low.
This week, markets will continue to wait for a series of PMI reports from both countries. Additionally, the governors of both central banks are also scheduled to speak this week, as well as the release of Australian CPI, US PCE inflation, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.
GBP/USD: The unemployment rate in August decreased, leading to aUK employment figures recover slightly
The UK unemployment rate continues to fall, with new jobless claims at 24,000, compared to the expected 230,000. The unemployment rate in August was 4.2%, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast of 4.3%.
Britain's labor market is easing, another sign that monetary tightening is starting to have an impact on the economy. Central banks agree that a period of low growth and easing labor markets is needed to bring inflation back to target. Slower growth would help prevent the BoE from being forced to raise interest rates as inflation falls sharply around the world.
EURUSD: EUR/USD recovered to 1.0600 as USD reversed to declineEUR/USD was pressured in the European session by the conflict in the Middle East and the broad recovery of the USD and US government bond yields. The next key event is the EU Consumer Sentiment Report.
EUR/USD is currently rising for the 3rd day in the past 4 days and is above the 20-day MA. Technical indicators on the daily chart show bullish signals, with RSI moving higher. If the day closes above 1.0640, the bullish momentum could continue. On the contrary, if the price falls below the 1.0500 support, it will attract more selling pressure.
EUR/USD is currently rising for the 3rd day in the past 4 days and is above the 20-day MA. Technical indicators on the daily chart show bullish signals, with RSI moving higher. If the day closes above 1.0640, the bullish momentum could continue. On the contrary, if the price falls below the 1.0500 support, it will attract more selling pressure.
GBP/CHF Long, NZD/USD Short, GBP/USD Short and EUR/USD ShortGBP/CHF Long
• If price corrects and a tight forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price impulses down below our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBPCAD Experts predict the Canadian economy is entering a recessRBC economist Nathan Janzen stated that the Statistics Office`s estimate isn't extensively one-of-a-kind from RBC's estimate of 0.5% boom and is simplest barely decrease than the estimate of 1 .5% of BoC.
Normally, forecasts of monetary recessions can be primarily based totally on traits such as: decreased GDP boom, decreased employment boom, decreased purchaser spending and funding activities. The nature and volume of monetary downturns can also additionally range primarily based totally at the traits indexed above.
The reasons of recessions are excessive inflation, growing hobby rates, declining purchaser self assurance or the outcomes of herbal disasters, political or monetary crises on a international scale.
GBPJPYBank of Japan to conduct unscheduled bond-buying operationFollowing the BOJ`s announcement, the 10-yr JGB yield JP10YTN=JBTC declined 0.five foundation factor to 0.855%, in advance buying and selling unchanged from Monday's last stage of 0.86%, which become the very best on account that July 2013.
Japanese yields were pulled better with the aid of using a surge in U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-yr word US10YT=RR topping five% in a single day to attain a 16-yr high. US/
The BOJ caps the 10-yr yield at 1% beneathneath its yield curve controls (YCC), following a wonder coverage tweak on the cease of July. Although the yield stays properly beneathneath that stage, policymakers have stepped in again and again to gradual the tempo of increases.
The valuable financial institution subsequent units coverage on Oct. 31.
EURUSD may return to 1.06000Although the price movement of EURUSD on the H4 time frame technically has a bearish structure, the recent price movement has seen a bullish challenge to the horizontal resistance area at 1.06000. Further upside could be seen in intraday value areas such as the horizontal resistance area at 1.06680/1.07000 before a southward reversal occurs.
USDCHF: USD/CHF breaks 2-day losing streak, stays above 0.8900, The USD/CHF pair snaps a two-day losing streak during the early European session on Friday. The pair currently trades near 0.8927, up 0.15% on the day. Meanwhile, the escalating geopolitical tension between Israel and Hamas might benefit to the safe-haven currency like Swiss Franc (CHF).
The Swiss Trade surplus widened more than expected in September. Trade Balance came in at 6,316M versus 3,814M seen in the previous month, better than the expectation of 3,770M, according to data published by the Swiss Federal Customs Administration Thursday. Additionally, Exports surged to 24,795M MoM in September from the previous reading of 20,932M whereas Imports arrived at 18,480M MoM versus 17,118M.
Across the pond, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a desire to pause rate hikes and watch how economic data develops in the coming months. Powell further stated that more monetary policy tightening might be appropriate if there are more indications about above-trend growth or if the labor market stops easing. His dovish comments weigh on the Greenback and act as a headwind for the USD/CHF pair.
BTCUSD:; Bitcoin forecast next week: Approaching the $30,000 marSince the beginning of October 2023, Bitcoin price has increased 8.3% and is approaching the psychological barrier at the 30,000 USD mark. Finance BankingBitcoin forecast next week: Approaching the 30,000 USD markDuong Lam • {Publishing date}Since the beginning of October 2023, Bitcoin price has increased by 8.3% and is approaching the psychological barrier at the 30,000 USD mark.
According to CoinDesk data, updated on the morning of October 22 (Vietnam time), Bitcoin price traded at 29,880.3 USD/BTC, corresponding to a capitalization of 583.2 billion USD. Compared to early October, this cryptocurrency has increased by 8.3%.
“Bitcoin's bullish momentum is supported by positive news about the possibility of approval of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) for this cryptocurrency next week, along with an increase in applications to open a fund Bitcoin ETF,” said Lucy Hu - senior trader at Metalpha.
GBP/CHF Long, CHF/JPY Short and GBP/USD ShortGBP/CHF Short
• If price impulses up above our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
CHF/JPY Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.